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November 3rd, 2009 at 6:50 pm
@No Longer Looking:
#49 I became TV-less a couple of years ago, primarily due to CanCess Global. Just out of curiosity, does Ozzie Jurock remain the illiterate slob that I remember??
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Anyone see Ozzie Jurock get away with a blatant lie on Global TV news? He said the BC unemployment rate was 7.4%, which is true. But then he went on to say 4% represents lowest unemployment rate possible and the entire additional 3.4% was out in the forestry towns. And the announcer just grinned and nodded. I hope this is caught in a clip.
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:40 pm
more from diane francis’ article. apologies if this has already been posted
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
“That’s a typical pattern for real-estate collapses, it worked out that way in almost every metro area in the US.” -Drachen
And, it has always worked that way in Vancouver. The “tsunami” spreads outward from Vancouver’s West Side and washes out into the nether regions.
Then, the reverse happens.
Then…it’s over.
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:32 pm
“Meanwhile, its stagnant or even falling in the commuter suburbs.”
I had to laugh when I saw a house listed at 489K 1.5 years ago.
The write-up said “…the owner will entertain offers between 489K to 499K.”
Wha? (Isn’t that the “value range pricing” gimmick they did in the US?)
It didn’t sell even after several piddly price reductions down to 439K…
Just today, this same house (in PoCo on Shaughnessy St) was listed for 409K.
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Wow stupaboy is getting paid to jackoff and getting saddled with a fourth mortgage. If that isn’t proof of the less than due dilligence the CMHC, banks I don’t know what is. When your job goes south and Your RE holdings are in the crapper remember how you came here and tried to get us going. All of us bears are sleeping well at night.
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:23 pm
@No Longer Looking:
That’s a typical pattern for real-estate collapses, it worked out that way in almost every metro area in the US.
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I just looked at all the October Stats and its really interesting how Metro Vancouver is splitting into two different markets.
The wealthy inner areas (COV, North Shore, Richmond, Burnaby, Anmore/Belcarra) are red hot. Meanwhile, its stagnant or even falling in the commuter suburbs. Coquitlam and Surrey have a lot of negative numbers, as does many areas further East.
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:12 pm
This board makes me wonder, do any of you do any work at all? Or do you just sit there and leech in an IT shop like me? Productivity is way down yet we are all getting paid to jackoff online.
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Each time I come here, the bears are crying. The Fed printed out so much money that there’s nowhere for housing to go but up. Gold is blasting off to new highs. Better welcome hyperinflation with both arms because it’s here to stay. I’m about to get my 4th mortgage for another investment property.
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Crisis Compels Economists To Reach for New Paradigm
http://online.wsj.com/article/.....4:r2:c0:b0
It’s hard not to think of the CMHC and our policies towards RE when reading this.
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Aussie raised rates again today for the second time in a month. Why, because they can. The rebate program has successfully shifted the burden onto the homeowner and market adjusted affordability as opposed to Canadas burden to the taxpayer with free money program and monthly paymeny schemes designed to jack prices up to meet the maximum allowable payment based on the temposray CHMC fraud.
$21000 incentives at higher rates were the safer bet instead of jacking up prices with leveraged inflato-bucks it seems. Oh those Aussies, outsmarted our best yet again.The Aussie homebuyers are relativley safe while the Canadian suckers have got hundreds of points to go before coming close to where real intrest rates will settle as is the case in OZ.
http://promoter.melbourneit.co.....amp;u=1041
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Creatively Manipulating Honest Canadians
I like this the best and it really is true. The stupid leading the blind. Creatively Manifesting Huge Collapse. Sad really.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:13 pm
How about:
Conservatives Must Hate Canada
Create Mega Housing Conflagration
Creatively Manipulating Honest Canadians
Crap! My House Collapsed!
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:17 pm
“32 X Wreckonomics Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 am
@Boombust: What did you write to the CMHC?”
I wrote about their reckless lending to people who wouldn’nt otherwise qualify for a mortgage through the bank. AND, how they are assuming all the risks.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:19 am
@oneangryslav2: Yeah, I think we are talking about the same building. Its as ugly as sin. Mind you, most buildings from that era are.
http://blog.myleakycondo.com/i.....logId=1060
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:52 am
@Wreckonomics: Canada’s Most Heinous Corruption
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:42 am
@Lord Huggington:
Crazy Money Housing Cheerleaders
Collapsing Markets Halt Credit
Cons Manipulate Hobbled Capitalism
Canadian Money Hole Corporation
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:33 am
@Boombust: What did you write to the CMHC?
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:45 am
Chip, Faux News got it wrong on the CRA front:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2.....xperiment/
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:23 am
Well, I’m still waiting for a reply from someone “important” at the CMHC.
I DID receive a response to my e-mail to “Chairman, CMHC” last week from some lower level hack.
Said he’d forward my message on. We’ll see.
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:05 am
Krugman has never seen a government program he couldn’t salivate over.
Fannie and Freddie were increasingly pushed into providing affordable housing, helping the long-term home ownership rate of 63% jump to 69% by 2007. By 2007, they were mandated by Congress, led by House Financial Services Chairman and all round economics wizard Barney Frank, to make 55% of their lending to low and middle income earners, of which 38% were to be to inner cities. They bought over a trillion dollars of subprime and alt-A loans and the US taxpayer is now on the hook for a cool $100 billion for each entity.
More generally private banks looked at the leverage held by these GSEs and decided that the federal government and Fed weren’t going to prick this bubble any time soon. They created an enormous sense of moral hazard in the midst of the boom.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:59 am
yeah nutslaps! beware the CMHC rocket jugernot!
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:41 am
.bdk:
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I *loved* that photo in the Globe and Mail account. It reminded me of the model home in “Arrested Development”. The place should have been named “Sudden Valley”.
I’m now 2/3 of the way through the interview process, and the hard part’s over (the technical interview). As the interviewer said “You did pretty well for a guy who just spent a year learning about sauces.” There are two other positions within that company alone that would suit my skills about 98%, and that one company has 19 high tech positions open.
Compare that with Van where if you’re a project manager, you better be in construction because otherwise you’re competing against all the guys from Nokia, Kodak, TELUS eBay and Electronic Arts who are out looking too.
I can’t wait to get out of Vancouver. It’s beautiful and all but there’s no work here. One the whole Olympic shit show is done and people figure out how badly they’ve been duped it’s going to be ugly. Even if you have a ton of money saved, it won’t change the fact that unemployment’s going to drastically affect life in this city, and not for the better.
So Drachen, post avideo of you doing the “I told you so” dance and I’ll download it from the East Coast.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:15 am
@other ted: Well, I’m not a libertarian economically. (I am a social libertarian, however–screw who you want, put whatever chemicals/compounds that you want in your body, as long as you’re not hurting anybody else by doing so.) But I do agree with your post. The problem with the economic system now is that we don’t have capitalism. Why not? Because there are no capitalists.
The CEOs, CFOs, etc., of most major companies these days are managers, not owners. The single most pressing issue with the current economic system is the divergence in incentives between the owners–the shareholders–and the managers. If you both own and manage your company, then you’ll never undermine your long-term health for short-term gain. If you only manage the company you’ll do whatever you can to increase the stock price in the short-term, cash out your options, and get the hell out. After all, it’s not your business that’s going to suffer as a result of your actions.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:09 am
@No Longer Looking: Do you mean the developmnt just east of Nanaimo? God, what a shithole that place is. I remember when that place was built–it must be about 20 years ago now–and I drove past and within six months of its completion one could plainly see the telltale signs of shoddy construction.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:00 am
more on the cmhc:
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009.....index.html
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:52 pm
@pricedoutfornow: They will suffer in silence. Condo owners will not speak out about this because it would put their building in a bad light, thus further undermining their “investment”. The only time I’ve heard them complain is when all is lost.
BTW whatever happened to those condos on East Broadway that faced a repair bill much bigger than the building was worth? I see it still standing there with tarps everywhere. Shouldn’t it have been sold for land value by now? I think its name was Gardena Villa or something.
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:14 pm
@.bdk:
Finally, a realistic article about condos! I agree, those fees I hear (or see) people paying are absolutely brutal…not to mention “special assessments” that are absolutely enormous. And yet condo owners I talk to simply shrug their shoulders and say “Oh well, you have to pay it” Will they still be saying that when interest rates are up to 8% and they’re pinching pennies to pay the mortgage (and the condo has decreased in value?) I would think not…
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:13 pm
Reading the CMHC article made me laugh. Actually I almost heard the same nonsense talking to me sister yesterday. She was lecturing me that I got to get in before it gets too late. I for one am tired of arguing with people about this bubble. I just said yeah I will keep an eye on it.
But seriously this article was nothing but fear mongering. Its like oh no I missed the bottom I better get in now. Real estate is going to save us and we will have perpetual growth forever. Housing will go up. This will create more jobs which will create more demand for housing and the cycle starts all over. Yup no ponzi scheme here.
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:10 pm
18. krazy kanuck you hit on something more than not investing in the right industries. But you highlighted the corruption that exists in our corporations. I am tired of hearing the term private sector. It is a misnoner. None of these companies are privately owned. Yes I am a libertarian and don’t want the government telling private business’ how to run. But when these business’ are owned by shareholders who happen to be the public we need some consumer protection for these shareholders. Its a myth CEO’s answer to shareholders. They answer to their boards who are an incestuas group of individuals who sit on each others boards. The CEO mentioned if what you said was true of him, should be in Jail.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:40 pm
well, not all the arabs
dubai has basically been RE for years, until their recent crash
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Y’know I can’t believe how little foresight (intelligence?) our government has.
This is a little off-topic, but I remember talking to my good buddy in Calgary 6 to 8 months ago. He works for Nova Chemical as a research chemist. So anyhow, they hired this jackA$$ of a CEO. He looted the company (left with some 9 figure golden parachute), saddled the company with debt, then orchestrated the sell-off of the company to the Arabs (can’t remember the fund/company). This is a company that owns and operates several chemical plants. The sale price was less than the replacement cost of ONE plant.
So I’m left thinking. Why is our government promoting home ownership (at any cost with free money), effectively creating jobs that involve selling each other houses?
I’m probably an idealist, but what I would have liked to see was:
1) a low interest government loan to Nova (~1%) to pay back current creditors in exchange for a 51% share.
2) fire the CEO and all upper management, and instill some proper management.
I would think these are the kinds of industry we should be supporting. It would diversify the economy, provides a bit of a counterweight to natural gas prices (low gas price = low feedstock cost), takes a raw material and processes it into something “value added”, and provides high level technical and research jobs.
It makes me think the Arabs are way smarter than us, investing for their future while we are busy selling each other houses.
really, really makes me mad. Why can’t our stimulus be spent intelligently?
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Anyone think that CMHC is envolved with the obama deception
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:04 pm
@10
Canadian Made Hubris Club.
Cant Make Homes Cheaper.
Creating More Hooked Canadians.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:57 pm
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....2/GIStory/
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:38 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....beinvestor
Uh Oh, so let me get this straight. Losing money every month for 35 years won’t make it easier to buy a house later?
Real estate never go down?
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:35 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1343682/
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 pm
Check out page 9…the “BC Employment and Unemployment Rate by Region and Metropolitan Area” document over at BCStats. Look at the unemployment trend for 2009 in the Vancouver and Abbotsford areas.
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/lfs/lfsdata.pdf
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:12 pm
The only things propelling this market are debt and leverage.
In spite of the great housing rebound the rest of the economy is still soft— so it looks like CMHC`s great cash give away program failed to stimulate the rest of the economy.
I wonder if Mark Carney will be able to fulfill his promise to keep money free for at least another year in spite of other countries starting to raise their interest rate— think down under. Recent real estate buyers in Vancouver better hope so.
Then again, I wonder if Harper, Flaherty, and Carney thought the world economy would be so week that other counties would not start raising their rates yet.
How are all these people with $700,000 mortgages going to feel if interest rates hit 5 or 6 percent— or— do they all think that interest rates will stay this low for all 35 years of their mortgage.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:10 pm
I’ve been trying to think of better things for what CMHC could stand for and the best I’ve come up with is the Continuous Money Handouts Club. Anyone have other suggestions to bring to the table?
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:06 pm
The bureaucrats at the CMHC know which hand is feeding them. There’s a reason why Garth Turner was kicked out of cabinet and then the party, Harper will not allow leaks, partly because the things he’s been doing with the CMHC and other government bodies are illegal and immoral.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:42 pm
How exactly do we get lower rates than now?
Huh?
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:40 pm
Fannie and Freddie are not to blame.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:29 pm
They are giving themselves a bit of wriggle room with those numbers…a possible low of 20,200 “if economic circumstances change”
Coming from a peak of 39,195 starts in 2007…that’s almost 50% fewer.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:17 pm
It’s clear now that the only way for housing in Vancouver to go is UP. If you missed out last winter you are the greatest fool of all. Jump on the boat now before the olympics or you’ll be priced out forever. The rich asians are at the door.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:09 pm
I read somewhere that the CMHC is ensuring the second and third mortgages in this crazy expansion. Is this true? Because if it is, they are handing away gambling money. You just know the flippers will be all over this, making the prediction of rising prices come true…until we peak out again. So much for CMHC’s mandate of “improving affordability.”
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Is part of the CMHC mandate to make public forecasts about the housing markets?
If so, why?
Their actual mandate is to facilitate ‘affordable’ housing for Canadians.
But they seem to be uncertain of their goals.
For instance, from the same article:
“In terms of the resale market, conditions have improved in the second half of 2009 and they’ll continue to be strong in 2010,” Carol Frketich, CMHC’s regional economist for B.C., said in an interview.
Improved? Strong?
The CMHC sounds like the Realtors Association.
If they were talking with affordability in mind, they’d describe the current situation as catastrophic.
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:53 pm
A dose of optimism courtesy of the always brilliant CMHC. Can’t really blame them their financial outlook depends on the masses believing it.
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:47 pm
I’m not paying my taxes when this goes South!