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November 15th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
@domus:
I think you are making very good points, and to me the inflation seems to be the most probable outcome. Can you please clarify for me one thing: you state that “when the inflation hits hard, interest rates jump up.” I can see that interest rates will rise on debt securities traded in a free market such as commercial credit market (bank credit, corporate bonds, etc.). From what I can see, the Canadian mortgage market is not really a free market, it is manipulated by the CMHC, BoC and the Canadian government. What in your opinion can force them to raise the mortgage rates?
November 15th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
Good to see you back Arit!
Do you film while you’re driving?
I watched your videos and was amused. A lot of people don’t seem to understand stop signs, right of way or that passing in parking lanes repeatedly during rush hour is dumb.
November 15th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Here is an easy equation. Mortgaged to the hilt raise in the interest rate = Foreclosure . It doesn’t get much simpler than that.
November 15th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
“That’s when we’ll see who’s swimming naked”
I am waiting for that to happen in more than one aspect. Patience…
Regards
November 15th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
When it comes to bulls(the beast of burden) they are not a particularly smart animal but when led to slaughter they begin to smell the blood and begin to panic. Wait til they smell a little blood in the street when their neighbours or friends can’t refinance. That’s when we’ll see who’s swimming naked.
November 15th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Franco,
This is not a war. Nor a battle. The forum is not ours nor yours, it’s the Pope’s.
Can you tell us a few more details about your recent purchase please? Like how much mortgage, downpayment, etc,.
Regards
arit
November 15th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
@Vancouverite:
YEAH!!!! Boowha,Another Bull join our battle against those stupid bear
,and soon this forum will be ours.
November 15th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
@Vancouverite:
YEAH!!!! Boowha,Another Bull join our battle against those stupid,and soon this forum will be ours.
November 15th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
@flip_this: Excellent point.
When talking about inflation/deflation, I am in the inflation camp for these reasons:
1) inflation is, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon: to say it with Milton Friedman, if you print/issue enough monetary instruments, you get inflation down the line. No buts, nois;
2) FED/BoC know this full well: they argue that, when the time comes, they will be willing and able to withdraw excess liquidity from the system. The two operating words are “WILLING” and “ABLE”. Let’s assume they were willing: how do you go about withdrawing liquidity at a really fast pace? Ask the FED/BoC to sell off all the government-derived debt they purchased over the past few years? In a matter of a few months? I believe it is not possible: it would take a few years, not a few months, to do that kind of open market operation. That would be more than enough time for inflation to take hold and raise its head. So, central bankers are lying on a simple technical issue.
3) Let’s assume that it were possible to withdraw liquidity at the fast pace they want us to belive: would they be ‘WILLING’ to do it? No way! Such a fast withdrawing of liquidity would be utterly painful. it would imply at the very least a big slowdown in economic activity, at worst another short and painful recession 9ever heard of the ‘Volker’s’ recession of the early 1980s in the US? I doubt that our weak bureaucrats and elected officials would be willing to do the painful right thing.
Notice: when the inflation hits hard, interest rates jump up. House prices will suffer big time. Unless you have a big amount of equity in your home already, you will suffer as well.
This all leaves me with a big question: why is everybody talking about deflation? It really beats me: we have low recorded inflation because energy went down a lot last year. New readings this year will show more normal inflation numbers, and they will only grow over time.
They are willingly (and stealthily) making ground for an inflation bout, something which erases existing liabilities and gives a clean slate to debtors (both individuals and banks/corporations).
I hope they fail. We need to be aware of what is going on. Spread the word.
November 15th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
StillSpending
I visited Aberdeen Center today. For your enjoyment, I filmed THE LINE OUTSIDE NCIX.
Amazing how these people will stand in this line for a few bucks discount
Consume
Obey
No Independent Thought
Do Not Question Authority
Here is the video….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK2gwZyQI2A
November 15th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
pricedoutfornow:
Why do you think mortgage rates in Canada will go higher? It seems to me that if Bank of Canada wants the mortgage rates to stay low they can certainly keep them low by buying mortgages from the banks. This is what they’ve been doing for the last several years. From the BoC actions it is evident that they are more then willing to create enough money to keep the bubble inflated. It appears that they want inflation. The low mortgage rates is nothing more then a subsidy for the homeowners (the banks, of course, profit the most), so what can make the government stop this subsidy? There is a common feature of all entitlements: once started they are very hard (politically) to get rid off. This particular entitlement affects about 70% of Canadian population, so I don’t see where political will will come from to increase the mortgage rates.
November 15th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
Systemic incompetance by the health provider industry result in H1N1 vaccine being thrown out instead of giving it to ‘non high risk’ groups except for asshole hockey players and the like. Bring some competant health care workers in from Pakistan China India and the Phillipines and get rid of every single incompetant parasite current sucking blood and costing lives in the Canadian system The current bunch of unionized wankers have become entrenched through nepotism and have proven themselves and thier organization to be nothing more than total fuck ups.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1364102/
November 15th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
It’s a different situation in Canada, in terms of the mortgage market. Right now in Canada, we are at the lowest mortgage rates possible-I’ve heard of some people having rates of 1.5%! It’s no wonder people (first time home buyers) are jumping into the market when the monthly mortgage payment is so affordable. It’s also no wonder that “investors” aren’t selling their properties in droves-why do so when the mortgage rates are so low, it makes more sense to hold onto the property and wait until “after the Olympics” when property values will double, quadruple, etc (so they say)
Meanwhile in the US, those low interest rates are a thing of the past. Many people signed up for “teaser” interest rates years ago, which eventually reset at higher rates-and then voila! That mortgage they got at 1.5% is suddenly several %s higher. No wonder people have walked away from their houses. So how can they suddenly expect the housing market to be reinflated when mortgage rates are higher, homebuyers’ credit is ruined and prices have plummeted. Oh and unemployment is rampant.
It’ll happen soon enough here, our low interest rates reek of subprime, and those who think otherwise are dreaming. I think it’s only a matter of time before we see all the factors we saw in the US-especially since our government is going the way of “teaser” interest rates, the crash will be even worse after that factor is included in the equation.
November 15th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
VANOC ‘leaning’ towards reselling tickets on thier site to head off ‘Craigslist’ scalpers. Hey I got news for you all, its all a big scam.
http://www.vancouversun.com/sp.....story.html
November 15th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
When will all you BEARS go-away!
Vancouver RE is Happening against all economic indicators!
What does that tell you?
You will not be able to buy a Olympic Villiage Condo for 10 c on the dollar (idiots)
The BEARS have run out of local issues!
Asians are lining up to buy Van RE!
This Blog is a waste of time for Everybody!
Go elsewhere to talk gloom & Doom!
I agree that Van RE prices are extaordinary high, but, lets wait for 10 more years to see if they go down!
November 15th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Any thoughts as to why the Canadian government was successful in reflating the real estate bubble while our US counterparts were not? It seems Bush/Obama administration are trying the same thing. Why is it not working down south but seems to be working here. And will this last here? I am starting to believe the belief in real estate is at religious proportions and it might stay here. Not scared as a bear as it will mean we will beome a feudal society witha feudal economy and as a renter I will be mobiel to leave this mess. But wondering if there are any thoughts on this.
November 15th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
@Phil:
Right on man let them rot in their basement and loss dearly in stock speculation. They deserve to be laughed at.Come on babe show me a significant correction before the yrs of 3000,at least 10 percent men. I m waiting,waiting and waiting.
November 15th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
@The Pope:
No worries Pope, keep up the good work.
November 15th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Hey Pope. You’re right as usual. That’s why I come back here again and again, because it’s daily insanity out there.
November 15th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Vancouver will be known as the greediest Olympics in history. We really are different!
http://tinyurl.com/yzlbrux
November 15th, 2009 at 9:29 am
@babzenuda: Not sure why your comment was getting hung up in the spam filter, but I think I rescued it along with vreaa’s. Just so you know why the spam filter is in place: it’s stopped more than 2000 spam comments in the past week. You think this site gets hard to read with a few stupid comments? Imagine it with 2000 spam comments a week!
@still spending: Theres demand for items at 50% off? That’s terrific! There are lots of people on this site that would line up for real estate at 50% off right now, so you know the economies good.
November 14th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
NCIX at Aberdeen Mall in Richmond Hazelbridge Rd is having a grand opening sale tomorrow morning from 9.30am.
Many will be waiting in line outside from 5am Sunday morning. Some items are 50% off, such as Sony laptop @$500 and Gateway laptops @$250. Judging from the response, there will be a big crowd.
November 14th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
A whole lot of U.S. homeowners probably wish they had thought to check a RE blog or two and take in the “group therapy”.
November 14th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
I guess one has to wonder if:
1. A lot of the so called data-based analysis by those not inclined to buy real estate isn’t a form of group therapy?
2. Bears are trying to get an idea of how many fellow bears exist? Will they split when even this blog goes bullish?
3. This blog will ever be a bullish blog? Can you imagine that?
November 14th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
@stagnate:
You’d be surprised how many long term renters are out there.
Obviously not all but some tenants like to spend time gardening and settling in.
The newer “landlords” who have virtually no equity and a very high debt ratio are not people whom you should deal with. Let these foolish rookie landlords shoot for the moon with their rental expectations and later pay to have the house brought up to code after a meth lab is discovered on the premises.
Remember to check into who the landlord is as it’s only fair. The owners check the tenants out. Try to determine how long they’ve owned the property.
Due to capital gains some families have held rental properties for decades and WANT long term tenants who will be responsible, who know how to fix the chain in a toilet and won’t be calling for every little maintenance issue.
If you can get access to BC online or the mlxchange you can look up a random sampling of 100 houses and be surprised how many houses that you’d presumed were “owner occupied” aren’t.
November 14th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
flip this starting to feel the same way. only hope is seeing what happened in the us and arounnd the world. My brain says we are not different here. My gut tells me people are nuts here to the point where anything is possible.
November 14th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
Good point OneNaggingQuestion.
May be bears have been wrong about the real estate in Vancouver for the last 6 years (myself included), because they are waiting for the paper money to appreciate against tangible assets. It could be a delusion.
The inflation has been the permanent state of the monetary system for the last 70 years. So, in inflationary environment the most benefit goes to the individuals who gets the newly created money/credit first. In our instance this is overleveraged homeowners. The way things look I am starting to doubt that anything can stop the authorities from issuing enough money to keep inflation going. Money are just numbers, most of money exist in the electronic form, so the government doesn’t even need paper to print the money.
November 14th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
@patriotzed
Good post.
(#60 technical difficulties)
November 14th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
After 2-1/2 years following this and other blogs on the housing situation here, I am utterly convinced by most of the Bear arguments and extremely grateful to those who have taken care to explain things carefully and provide graphs and so on. Thank you, thank you, a thousand times thank you.
There seems to me no good reason to buy a condo, townhouse or house anywhere in Vancouver (nor in most nearby municipalities) at the present time except for one. If the U.S. hits hyper-inflation and the dollar goes down, certainly the Canadian dollar would follow and also become valueless. Then the only thing worth having would be real property, land. What do people think about that as a reason? Would the reply be that the probability of hyper-inflation is so low that it is not worth taking into consideration? Interested in your opinions.
November 14th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
“The world has too much debt”
I agree (who wouldn’t) but when will this situation we’re in end? Our economy is based on debt, if no one spends, then our consumer-based economy will crash and burn.
On another note, I was out looking at used cars today. The salesman was trying to convince me to buy a brand new 2010 car, showing me the low financing rates-1.9% or less. But he gave up when I said I’d rather pay cash. He said most people don’t buy used cars anymore because they base their decision on the monthly payment amount, and with the low rates only available on the new cars, you end up paying more per month for a used car than for the new car.
So ironically, this means that most people really can’t afford to buy a used car, they can only afford to buy new.
This seems so messed up to me.
November 14th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
@johnny
That’s totally wrong. BCTC’s entire capital plan for the next 10 years is only $5.3 billion.
http://www.bctc.com/transmissi.....pital_plan
Matrikon is a bit player in the BCTC technical landscape when compared to Accenture who has the majority of IT business there. And we’re not even talking about transmission technology (you know, the stuff that goes into substations, etc.) which is a far larger piece of the capital plan than IT.
November 14th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
@Dave
Matrikon Richmond has $10billion project with BCTC alone.
November 14th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
@Phil: Here’s a thought experiment for you, Phil. Can you think of any potential downsides to leverage?
November 14th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
# 58 Stagnate:
How much long-term “stability and control” should a family realistically expect from over-leveraging themselves into this housing market? Speculation and gambling are best be left to business and casino dealings, no?
O, the specter of being bought out of an affordable long-term rental for “landlord use”… I’d feel much more “socially attractive” in a buy-out compared to a trash-out scenario!
http://kcet.org/socal/2008/09/.....alley.html
November 14th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
wtf, why are all the bulltards getting their comments through but mine aren’t? three attempts at a posting… nothing sticks. sigh, time to go play golf and have a saturday afternoon beer with all my dirtbag renter buddies.
November 14th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
The thing with real estate is leverage where else can you borrow 900,000 grand and only put say 5/10% down, if you assume around an 8% return that is $80,000 a year and increasing on 5/10% down. If you decided to just rent where could you get the equivalent leverage, could you borrow 900,000 with 10% down to put in the stock market, I don’t think so, too risky!! banks wouldn’t lend even on margin its at most 50%.
Renting over owning may work out in economic text book theory land but not in practical real world that is why most renters are poor.
November 14th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Hey we live in your basement so you can afford your crack house, don’t insult us too much or we may come out of the basement and you will find us in your kitchen eating your KD your living off of.
November 14th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
@Anonymous:
Even Prudent Vancouver Sun exposes the reality to those idiotic,cheeky,and retarded bears.Good work man! in defending Van RE and its hard working RE buyers and owners.let those RE bears be humiliated time and time again,and rot in their run-down basements while , those smart RE owners and buys are collecting rental payments and prospering from hasty RE appreciation in future decades.
November 14th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
@Dave:
let call a ambulance for those insane bears,in case of their hearts stops functioning due to 0 oxygen intake for yrs.Poor,Van bears have been waiting,waiting and waiting………for any sigificant drop.Unfotunately, there ain’t any fantasy like that exists due to overwhelming buying power from Chinese population either from local or abroad.Don’t hold your breath to long for price correction men cos Van RE will only edging for this century at least.If you don’t have enough down payment,come on, don’t be lazy and find one more job to supplement your meager income.
November 14th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
@patriotzed
November 14th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
#32 “what wage growth?”
Well..
I have given up on getting anything more from my employer.
The only ones getting any “growths” are CEO, high up gov workers ie premier and his friends and relatives.
But I would not mind some wage growth, so I created a wage growth for me, this is how:
I have developed some very frugal skills.
I have developed a mind that questions every new “must have”.
I dont get involved in risky behaviours such as speeding, extreme sports, buying houses at unreasonable prices, doing drugs, cigs, or etoh, or wearing high heels.
Also, if you cannot afford it, try living without it. Works for me.. No debts, no bill collectors, no sleep deprivation.
I had such a good sleep last night.
November 14th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Vancouver RE currently demonstrates historically record high price-to-rent ratios. Despite this, very, very low interest rates continue to make buying look attractive, especially if one only considers monthly payments.
I’ve archived the following telling anecdote from Beth (2009 Nov 13, 20:27) from the comments section of the 12 Nov 2009 ‘Vancouver RE market bounces back’ article in the Georgia Straight, already cited by posters above –
“My rent was $975 a month for a crappy, 35 year old one bedroom that didn’t have insuite laundry or anything, and where the landlord would knock twice then enter my suite without advance notice for non-emergencies, once even while I was on the toilet. Now, my mortgage is the same for a 12 year old one bedroom with laundry, fireplace, dishwasher. This includes maintenance fee. And I can have a pet. And no landlord can come in because he feels like it. Yes, the interest rates will rise, but my salary will also increase. If I’m laid off, or my mortgage skyrockets, I’ll work my ass off to keep it all together. I am confident in my ability to make it work. Downpayment? Some people work two jobs and weekends for years and years and years to save up for one; others inherit it when a loved one passes away; others borrow money interest-free from family, and others have it handed to them by well-to-do parents who would rather their kids have a condo than live in a dump run by a slumlord. Do you blame them? It’s not really anyone’s business where a downpayment comes from. It’s not a crime to have a downpayment.”
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/
November 14th, 2009 at 11:41 am
renting would be more “socially” attractive if you could lock in long term tenancies, say 15 years. most people with kids are not willing to subject their family to the potential of getting evicted due to selling/owner moving back in/etc. they want the stability and control from owning. if more quality long term sfh’s were available for long term rentals more would take the discount. the discount would shrink though if greater numbers made the move. i know a few who have sold and rented for reverse speculation, but am hard pressed to think of any who have done it for the month to month discount.
November 14th, 2009 at 10:52 am
It never ceases to amaze my how ignorant people are in respect to home ownership v renting. Some very intelligent people (on paper anyway) fail to comprehend very basic finance. People continually ask why don’t I buy, now is a great time to get into the market, blah blah blah. And my very simple answer still cannot be understood – EVEN WITH FREE MONEY, MY RENT IS STILL HALF TO TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP AND I TAKE ON ZERO RISK! How hard it that to understand dickheads! PLUS YOU DO NOT OWN ANYTHING UNTIL YOU HAVE PAID THE BANK THE LAST PENNY ON THE LOAN. YOU ARE ESSENTIALLY RENTING FROM THE BANK AT A MUCH HIGHER RATE, YOU ARE A DEBT SLAVE!
I live conservatively, but live a good life nonetheless. Save the difference between my rent and the otherwise cost of ownership and spend the rest on our lifestyle, mainly vacations and gaining life experiences. People are baffled why we can afford this and had one friend remark “well thats because you rent”, we der, think about your statement there fuckwhip. Of course it is. I said it was great, we save $30,000 a year and spend the rest on ourselves, how good is that I said to her. I also mentioned that it takes nearly 4 months rent just to pay city taxes and insurance. But we are still poor renters and will still be treated as 2nd class citizens. It’s OK, this thing is going to go down big time, sooner or later. I dont give a shit if I own or rent, I want a roof over my head and some grass in the yard.
November 14th, 2009 at 1:53 am
@kansai_92:
Real rents in Vancouver are declining. Shelter in the city is actually more affordable than a decade ago:
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/van.html
Don’t confuse the issues. There is a huge difference between a city having expensive shelter – i.e. both rents and prices being high – and in a bubble – i.e high prices but normal rents. All bubbles must eventually fail because they are Ponzi schemes in which the return on investment comes from the next buyer rather than from income on the asset.
People keep bringing up Monaco as some point of comparison. Is that place in a permanent bubble – i.e. prices out of whack with rents – or is it just plain expensive? I would guess the latter – I certainly have never heard anyone recommend Monaco for cheap rentals. Well there have always been places that are just plain expensive because most residents are rich or most jobs pay very well. Neither is true for Vancouver – in aggregate it’s one of the poorer big cities in Canada (about the same as Montreal). That’s why we are in a bubble which must fail.
Also with respect to the person asking if gold is in a bubble, gold has no value (i.e. it returns no income to its owner), so you could say that it’s always in a bubble (i.e. price out of whack with value), or say that it makes no sense to ask whether it’s in a bubble. Gold is essentially a Ponzi scheme except that entrants must hold physical tokens (i.e. the gold) which limits its growth.
Yes I’m aware that there are industrial uses for gold but these do not drive its price, speculators do.
November 14th, 2009 at 1:51 am
I should correct my conclusion. It’ll only get worse if more people succumb to the madness and continue to act irresponsibly. If they personally strive to reduce their debts then we could be in for the Japanese scenario of 10 or 20 years of low growth as debts are paid down. This is not entirely bad. The bond market is betting on this scenario, so it’s likely.
November 14th, 2009 at 1:40 am
YLTNBoomerang: The US and Canadian central banks will continue to keep rates low as long as they can until the economy really blows up for good. It’s typical short term thinking – cure the symptoms not the disease. Some may not even recognize the problem.
The problem is that we have too much debt. 70% of our economy is consumption which is mostly financed by new debt. Check out this presentation by Australian economist Steve Keen:
http://www.debtdeflation.com/b.....tute-talk/
He calls this a “Ponzi-economy” (a term coined by Minsky) and he’s right, because debt must grow at an ever faster rate in order to maintain constant economic growth. Every time since the mid 1980′s when there has been a recession, rather than let overextended people and businesses go bankrupt, policy makers have loosened monetary policy to reignite the debt bubble. It’s like “curing” a hangover with more booze.
It has created a bubble every decade in junk bonds, internet stocks, then housing, and now precious metals along with stocks and housing again. It probably won’t be commodities or resources because that will quickly crash the real economy.
So now rates are at zero, and central banks and governments are extending credit like mad to questionable borrowers. The US FHA is purposely losing gobs of money on bad loans to prop up the housing market. Canada’s CMHC is doing the same thing. It’s one big party that we’re all paying for, except that we probably can’t afford it.
Central banks are trying to create inflation to wipe out the real value of debts, so that they can create new debts and grow the economy again. However, there is one minor problem. When the next financial crisis hits, rates are already at zero, money printing has already been done, bad loans have already been extended – there is nothing left to do. So countries will blow up. Like Iceland. Their currencies will be worthless (hence the rush to precious metals), their people will be destitute (except for the people who got obscenely rich off this), and there will be nothing anyone can do. The culprits will simply leave. They’ll retire to some tropical country with no extradition treaties.
What should have happened this time is that the people who made bad loans should have lost money and markets should have been allowed to correct. This was probably the last chance to fix the system. Previous chances were in 1987 (stock market correction, junk bonds), 1991 (savings and loan scandals), 1998 (long term capital management), 2000 (stock market crash), 2002 (Enron & Worldcom scandals), 2007 (credit crunch), 2008 (Lehman), 2009 (stress tests).
In each case the government covered up the problem, ignored or endorsed outright fraud, and/or loosened monetary policy. All to “help” the economy come through. If you find any of this disturbing you may be interested in the history of Argentina. It’ll only get worse from here.
November 14th, 2009 at 1:35 am
Sometimes I wonder why I check up on real estate blogs since i have no intention of buying anytime soon. Then i get a reminder why every now and then like what happened today. Again another talk with my mother, apparently i was wrong I should have jumped in when the market bottomed out last year. i missed out and will never own. People who took on more debt like my sister to the tune of 600k on top of what they owned were smart. And apparently my mother has heard of no one who has lost on real estate.
I know the market heated up again. but looking where my sister bought in coquitlam I don’t notice much change but i am not following that much. But what do I know. i reminded my mother that this has played out worldwide in other perenial winning areas like california, yet somehow I am to believe we are different.
The only difference i see hear is the amound of delusion is unserpassed.
November 14th, 2009 at 1:24 am
@Dave:
“High Tech” in Victoria consists almost entirely of contractors doing software and database work for the provincial government. They are not producing anything that is sold on the open market, and like the local civil servants their contribution to the Victoria economy is simply at the expense of BC taxpayers.
Real high tech in Victoria is in even worse shape than in Vancouver, and for the same reason – the city is too expensive for businesses to be competitive.
November 14th, 2009 at 12:14 am
So they’re predicting 6% increase for next 12 months.
The average person can save every single penny of his disposable income and he will never catch up to that kind of appreciation.
When does Vancouver hit the glass ceiling in terms of affordability.
Has it really become the next Monaco?
If so, where are the European royalty?
Hard for a bear to do anything other than hibernate and wait until after the Olympics and HST before poking his head out of the cave.
Insanity now, insanity now!