Friday Free-for-all!
It may be raining, but at least it’s the weekend! Let’s do our regular end of the week news roundup and discussion. Here are a few stories I’ve noticed lately:
-City council endorses lots of little condos with very little green space.
-Are you ready for higher mortgage rates?
-Put on your chicken suit and let’s have a party!
-The lifecycle of a bubble (graph)
-BC to jack up threshold on new house HST
-Playing the international real estate market
-US housing crisis hits new level
So what are you seeing out there? Post you news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
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browntown Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
yeaah nutspanks! remembers might find SCullboy in Halofax, might find CMHC with a huge potfolio, might find drachen in a movie lineup to 2012 but you will not find
“a land making machine”
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domus Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
Do you want to run an interesting experiment this weekend?
Go to your bank and ask them: “Do I get a better mortgage rate if I put down 40% or 5% of the purchase price?”
You might be surprised by the answer. Report to the blog if you do it!
The RE market in this country is truly upside down…..it can’t last much longer.
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Anonymous Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
@domus: Hey domus, I won’t hold my breath: Soviet Union was upside down for 70 years, North Korea is upside down since WWII, Cuba since 1959. State socialism can last a really long time. Unfortunately for us, the housing market bears, this particular Canadian brand of socialism is supported by a rich revenue from natural resources.
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domus Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
@Anonymous: Short of forbidding a market altogether, no government has enough strength to stop its working for very long.
Hell, even in the socialist countries there was a black market for almost anything.
This thing won;t last much longer, it is a bubble. It should have burst last year. It will eventually.
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Supraboy Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
You know what guys? I find Scullboy the biggest racist here. The guy uses four letter words, he’s jealous, and he despises Chinese. That guy is completely out of sync with reality. He thinks all rich Chinese sit on their hands and money rains from heaven. If anyone’s been to Asia, you’ll notice that Asians are the hardest working people on this planet and their work ethic is at a very high level that Canadians will never be at. Canada is all about dumb unions and lazy people who leeches off the government money. There is a reason why scullboy puts up slanderous comments, he lacks confidence in life and tries to draw attention from bears so the bears can promote his objective which is to buy a house at rock bottom prices which will never happen.
With lazy people in Canada, it’s a matter of time all the Asians come to Canada and scoop up all the land. It’s not just the Chinese invading the west side, in Port coquitlam, the Koreans have taken over that place, in North Van, you’ve got Iranians. Eventually, the Russians will come and leave their mark. I wouldn’t be surprised if people from the Middle East begins flooding one part of the Greater Vancouver region.
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flip_this Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
@domus: I totally agree the bubble will burst, but it will burst in terms of units of labor, units of gold, units of oil, units of whatever tangible property you can imagine. I am very skeptical that paper pieces with words Bank of Canada on them will appreciate against housing, or against anything else for that matter.
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logic Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
“Asians are the hardest working people on this planet”
—-
Who is being racist now?
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other ted Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
After reading the story about the german guy who was encouraged to put less than 20% down I am speechless. Whoever is in charge of this policy should be tried for treason. But ultimately its the masses that are to blame. I hate to see this but maybe democracy isn’t that good. From rule of the people it has been corrupted to mob rule. The majority want something out of nothing and they are getting it, for the time being. When this ends ugly the same people are gonna be pointing fingers but at the wrong people.
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oneangryslav2 Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
And you wonder why housing prices are rising in both the U.S. and Canada. Here are some juicy excerpts from a New York Times article via Calculated Risk:
Messrs. Bedar, Rowland, and Kurland are financial geniuses. I’ll bet that by this time next year they’ll be as rich as Tom Vu.
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flip_this Says:
November 19th, 2009 at 11:33 pm
@other ted: Well it is not quite out of nothing, by printing money they are confiscating wealth from the savers and redistributing it to the borrowers.
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domus Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:04 am
@Supraboy:
“Canada is all about dumb unions and lazy people who leeches off the government money. ”
Can I maybe invite you to leave such horrible society? You seem to hate it over here.
@flip_this:
Flip, that’s an easy one. Just buy some decent, revenue-making, dividend-paying shares/ETF. Decent inflation hedge, income stream, low-risk. If you want, hell, buy gold or silver ETFs. Get shares of banks which pay good dividends (they are not going to fail now, they are carrying no risk at all).
Only one piece of advise: do not buy a house! Real estate is NOT the place to put your money at the moment.
My opinion, anyway.
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arit Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:11 am
Supraboy, when you say:
“Canada is all about dumb unions and lazy people who leeches off the government money. ”
It makes me wonder what you are doing here. Canada was kind enough to let you and me in. We should at least not spit into the well we drink from.
Now let’s try this: Go back to China and post in a public blog something like “Chinese government corrupts take all your money and buy big houses in Richmond”. Let’s see how long before both your kidneys are sold on eBay by the official Chinese government…
Regards
arit
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Chilled Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:31 am
@Supraboy:
#5 Your stereotypes and generalizations are a hell of a lot more racist that Scullcaps. Give it a rest.
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Anonymous Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:43 am
@domus: “Real estate is NOT the place to put your money at the moment”. — Can’t agree more. Vancouver real estate is a very risky speculation. It seems to me that the probability of government intervening into the housing market to keep the bubble inflated is very high (by intervening I mean freezing the rates on all outstanding mortgages). The question though is how promptly they will do it. Actions of the most governments are usually reactive in nature. So for some people the ultimate bailout may come too late…
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Mini Koopah Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:46 am
Supra!
I can totally see you have understood the “freedom of speech” part here in Canada. So I’ll let you into a secret here. Canadian people take it for granted that before an individual exerts its freedom of speech, it must think hard about what it has to say, sort of “freedom of thinking” human right. Given this, I would humbly suggest you read through your post a few times before you submit it.
Otherwise I would very much believe that (as Arit mentions) your kidneys may have some value, but your brains (hmm, how can I say this!) may NOT!
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jjss Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:51 am
http://business.timesonline.co.....922325.ece
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Drachen Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 1:17 am
@Anonymous:
“the probability of government intervening into the housing market to keep the bubble inflated is very high (by intervening I mean freezing the rates on all outstanding mortgages).”
The government doesn’t control the rates on mortgages, the banks do. That makes no sense at all. They HAVE intervened through the CMHC and the BOC but it’s just kept the bubble spiralling upwards, if they do MORE to intervene it will simply inflate the bubble further, the only way to stop it is to let it die on it’s own, continued intervention is just a money pit and when the money’s gone it’s going to crash all the harder for the effort.
I think what many people (including yourself) don’t get is that such high prices HURT the economy, people who are paying every last penny on their mortgage don’t have money to spend elsewhere and the loss of that discretionary spending hurts the vendors and their suppliers and the banks who give them loans.
Just as in the States, the only people who will see a government bail-out is the banks and in Canada it’s built in to the system via the CMHC. Banks are too big to fail, home owners and specuvestors are not.
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scullboy Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 1:36 am
Ah Supratard, pulling the Channing Tatum ball gag out of his mouth and throwing around the racist card…. God your really are the Dum son of dim sons.
Let’s see… I complain that the “rich ***** (whatever ethnic group) is coming here and buying all the property, thus keeping property values high” meme is complete bullshit, and I get called a racist who despises Chinese.
YOU claim that with all the lazy people in Canada, it’s only a matter of time until the wealthy (insert ethnic groups here) “invade” (YOUR word, dumbass). You claim Canadians are dumb and lazy people who leech off government money.
Really, Supratard? Seriously? THAT is your claim? Doesn’t it strike you as odd? I mean if nothing else GOVERNMENT GETS ITS INCOME FROM ITS CITIZENS YOU FUCKING IDIOT.
And *I* am the racist? Seriously?
You know, you never hear this shit in Toronto. Seriously. People there give each other a good natured racially-tinged ribbing, if they know each other well enough to understand that the jokes won’t be taken the wrong way. You certainly never hear the kind of shit Supratard slings…. it would be considered shockingly backward.
Every day I stick around here, Vancouver seems more and more…. well provincial.
It’s so funny too… most of the information I get about the Chinese community comes from Chinese people like my buddies the gangsters. One guy is apparently a badass that doesn’t dare return to Taiwan. He operates out of Shanghai now. I even got offered a fairly high ranking job there, but he warned me Shanghai’s “business” is all about keeping a bunch of really low-level, poorly educated slobs working out of the fear of reprisal. According to my friend, that’s most of China….. it’s essentially an enormous mass of very poorly educated, low level people working at a level barely above that of human subsistence, run by a very small number of … well… high level thugs when it comes right down to it.
High level Chinese work ethic… riiiiiight. That explains the lead paint in the kid’s toys, and the melamine in the pet food, and the toxins in the drywall, right? Uh Supratard, your people get worked to death in gulag like conditions. That’s not a high work ethic, it’s fucking slavery. The fact that we have some vestiges or protection for workers in this country is evidence that we, quite frankly, are smarter then the Chinese.
Ooooo did that hurt? I’d say sorry, but let’s face it I mean every fucking word.
Say what you will, tard….. that’s the information I get from someone in the know. Maybe it’s true and maybe it isn’t but that’s certainly how it was related to me.
I don’t give a shit about Vancouver’s housing prices any more, you fucking moron. Have you been too busy self-sodomizing with die cast action figures to notice my posts? Let me spell it out for you again:
I’M LEAVING THIS FUCKING CITY BEHIND. I’M MOVING SOMEWHERE ELSE YOU FUCKING IDIOT.
Got that?
Frankly I don’t give a flying fuck whether it’s the “I Buy three, My huzzba buy three” Richmond idiots, or Russian oligarchs, Or Iranian ex-pats, or triads or hells angels, or hippie boomers or who the fuck ever are keeping prices at their current levels. I really don’t.
Certainly I’m going to laugh when you and your high-roller wannabe buddies discover the difference between an unrealized capital gain and actual profit, but that will be from a continent away.
On a related note, I went for a brief walk today in the never ending twilight that is Vancouver in November. Before I got 5 blocks my shoes were squishy and my pants were drenched from the knees down.
My buddy emailed me a photo of Halifax this morning, the skies were clear blue and the temperature was about 8 degrees warmer then here.
Tell me to my face that Van’s winters are better. Seriously. I’ll laugh right across the continent. Tell me the Chinese are harder workers, too. I’ll laugh just as hard and suggest you try working there instead. I mean let’s face it, you certainly aren’t adding any value to THIS nation.
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Warren Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 8:31 am
For somebody who can’t wait to leave, you sure spend a lot of time and effort on here.
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Warren Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 8:33 am
Not sure where you get your weather reports. It’s 8C in Vancouver and 11C in Halifax right now. Since the sun is already out over there, I’d consider that pretty even.
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shannon Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 8:35 am
I fooled around with an online mortgage calculator. They asked you to put in your gross income and how long. They had the rate already in place. It then calculated how much you could borrow and what your payments would be. I played with it alot until it all came clear. The bigger the downpayment had no effect on how much you could borrow or on the monthly payments. The only component that changed anything was the monthy income. The higher the income, the more I could borrow, even with zero down.
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Anonymous Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Canadian bankruptcies up
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....1/GIStory/
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Anonymoose Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 9:27 am
“Tell me to my face that Van’s winters are better. Seriously. I’ll laugh right across the continent.”
I spent quite a few years living in Halifax. Better is a matter of definition, but for weather I’d personally take three months of gray with rain over six months of frozen wasteland and -30 windchills. Serious Winter in Halifax is only just beginning now – the snow will be gone by April or May. That being said Halifax has lots of things better than Vancouver – affordable housing, friendlier people (once you get past the door, which can take a while), etc.
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Bankruptcies Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Bankruptcies soar 43%
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....ember.html
Full Report shows BC is not doing well:
http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/b.....02300.html
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Supraboy Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:08 am
@logic:
“Asians are the hardest working people on this planet”
—-
Who is being racist now?
omg…you are a sad sack. How is that a racist comment? Calling a group of people being the hardest working is racist. How fickle can you get? So if I call your male friend hard working, you’ll say I’m gay?
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U. Boat Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:10 am
“….. Better is a matter of definition, but for weather I’d personally take three months of gray with rain over six months ….”
Three months of gray with rain – where is that- San Francisco?
If you’re referring to Vancouver you mean 9 1/2 months of rainy, soggy, mouldy crud! The single biggest falsehood about Vancouver, by far, is the notion that it has nice weather! It’s absolute nonsense! Even the ‘World Class City’ tag (which is also utter nonsense) has more cred. Vancouver has a mild climate, but the worst weather of any major city in the western hemisphere. Anyone who doesn’t think so was either born here (and thinks it’s like this everywhere) or they’ve just moved here and haven’t realized how crappy the weather is yet.
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Supraboy Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:10 am
@scullboy:
You really sound bitter for a person who’s planning to leave this city. Just leave and STFU.
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Richard All Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:21 am
And now, another in a series of anecdotal observations…
I was downtown last night for a few ‘pops’ for the first time in several years. I had lived down in the west end for 17 years and was always amazed how busy it was in the evenings (and how it seemed to be getting busier all the time). Well after a few pops, my buddy and I decided to get something to eat so we went down to Denman St. at about 1030pm. There wasn’t anyplace open except for a couple of bars – even though all the eateries had signs on the doors that they were open until 11. You could have fired a cannon on the street and no one would have heard it! It used to be so busy in the West End. What happened?
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crabman Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:33 am
@Supraboy: Boy, you really are a supratard!
Speaking of weather, it’s sunny and in the mid-20’s all week here in Phoenix. It sure is nice to be a renter in Van! With all the money I save I can afford plenty of vacations during the long “gray season”.
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scullboy Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Anonymoose:
Better is definitely a relative term. After spending 3 winters here I can’t say Vancouver has better weather. I find it MUCH darker here, for starters. The extremely low hanging cloud cover makes my feel really claustrophobic. I’ve never seen rain like we get in Vancouver, and I used to think the Maritimes were wet.
Vancouver’s weather is often cited as a reason “everyone want to live here”. After 3 years I’d have to say yeah it’s milder, but winters aren’t great. Certainly at this point if I were looking to escape Winter I’d pick something up in either Phoenix, Miami, or somewhere in California.
Hell I think even the south of France is more affordable then Van now.
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Anonymous Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:47 am
@Richard All
Although restaurants in general have slowed because of the economy, I’d say the 8 feet of rain we’ve had over the last few days has kept people locked up inside.
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Richard All Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 11:12 am
@Anonymous:
Like I said, I lived downtown for years. It rains a lot here; the “8 feet” you refer too is nothing new, but it never used to keep anyone inside in the West End.
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Arwen Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 11:41 am
@Richard All: As an ex-pat West Ender myself – there for 17 years myself – I would say that it must be that you and I left. We were the life of the party!
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scullboy Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 11:53 am
But…. but….. I thought our resident food and wine expert Supratard said all the restaurants in town are booming! That’s what he said, isn’t it?
Gosh if he’s wrong about that maybe he’s wrong about all the rich Asians buying up property. Naaaaaahhhhhh couldn’t be……
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Anonymous Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
“You could have fired a cannon on the street and no one would have heard it! It used to be so busy in the West End. What happened? ”
When did you live in the West End?
The Granville Entertainment District and Yaletown have moved the crowds east. Plus all those lifestyle owners!
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realpaul Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Short attention spanners alert!!! The Alt-A bow wave that was discussed a year ago on these very pages is still heading towards the tsunami stages that had been forecast. Our government may be prepared to push the national debt into never never land territory but it doesn’t solve anything. The master bullshitter Finance Minister this morning said that we will grow our way out of the deficit by 2014/15. He didn’t didn’t mention that the National debt is skyrocketing to levels not seen since the 80’s when Canada was technicallly banckrupt and the LIBS had to gouge Canadians for everything from transfer payment reductions to huge tax increases by order of the IMF.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1370396/
The only thing that has recovered is the massive debt. No other business is reporting healthy growth based on non stimulus spending. Housing is a bubble, government services is a bubble, unemployment is still growing (although they spin it to infer that the velocity of growth has slowed) and personal bankruptcies is again up another 45% !!
If you can’t make ends meet at zero intrest rates then WOW…..whats going to happen when China can’t swallow any more inflation and demands 5% for Canadian bonds. Our government is currently buying all its own debt. That means big problems for taxpayers down the road. Can the government continue to add this debt into the future? What is the inflection point? I’m going to suggest it will turn around and bite us in the ass a lot sooner than 2015.
When we have to borrow massive sums of money to pay intrest on the national debt which surpasses tax collection and the projected GDP (as happened in the 80’s) what will the rate be?
Aussie is controlling its debt by bringing in foriegn capital to fund government spending at 3.5%. If that was the case in a Canada where bankruptcies are increasing 100% per annum at 0% what would the velocity of bankruptcy be at 3.5%?
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oneangryslav2 Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
@shannon: Which mortgage calculator did you use? Thanks.
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Sandy Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
German guy’s analysis combined with personal bankruptcies soaring = it is just a matter of time til this house of cards falls.
Stick a fork in this bubble – it is done!
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spark Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
oh yeah Bankruptcies are up.
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/sto.....ember.html
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spark Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
@spark: sorry for the duplicate.
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patriotz Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
@pricedoutfornow:
Banks are legally required to get CMHC insurance for loans with less than 20% down, but there is nothing stopping them from requiring CMHC insurance for loans with larger down payments, as they are quite free to set any lending terms they want and CMHC is quite willing to insure them (less risk for the same premium). In fact banks often require CMHC insurance with larger down payments for recreational or other second properties or those which they think have significant risk of price downside.
Some people might not be clear on what the term “subprime” actually means in US mortgage lending. It simply means a mortgage issued to someone with a poor credit rating. If the borrower has a good credit rating, it’s not subprime, regardless of the price/income, debt service ratio, amortization, etc. Loans to borrowers with good credit ratings which have nutty terms such as neg-am are known as “Alt-A”, and comprise a separate class for default statistics – and they are of course defaulting in droves. As are even prime mortgages.
The point, of course, is that someone’s credit rating, which most of the time is based on consumer spending, has no relationship to the borrower’s ability to carry a capital asset like a house. Fundamentals do.
IMHO commentators south of the border who blame the housing bust on subprime lending are trying to make people think that lending to the “wrong people” as opposed to “Real Americans” was responsible. If you get what I mean.
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patriotz Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
@Anonymous:
That would bankrupt every lending institution in the country. Absolutely will not happen. Economic job #1 for this government is keeping the banks solvent. Not even during the wage and price control era of the late 70’s/early 80’s did the government try to control lending rates.
And if you are maybe talking about letting the banks charge what they want but the government paying the increase rather than the borrower, that will not happen either, because it would bankrupt the government.
If you want a real life example, the Alberta RE bust has been in progress since 2007, and its provincial government has done absolutely nothing to aid distressed homeowners. And it’s the only government in the country that has the financial means to do it.
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Daffy Duck. Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Vancouver’s weather is great it is just that we only have two seasons.
Winter = cold rain. Summer = warm rain.
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Vomitron Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Re: Vancouver vs Halifax
I have lived in both Vancouver and Halifax. Vancouver has pretty scenery but Halifax is a pretty city even without the scenery. Summers in Nova Scotia are like summers in Vancouver. Winter in Nova Scotia is nicer than Vancouver because there is snow that you can cross-country ski on without having to take a horrendous car trip. Winter temperatures in Halifax are not much colder than Vancouver. In fact, Halifax in the winter is a slightly warmer version of Whistler but without the coke dealers and hookers of Whistler.
I really like Halifax. The people in Halifax are polite and they will not run you down with their BMW SUV while you are in the crosswalk. Standards of behaviour are generally much higher in Halifax than they are in Vancouver. There are far fewer ultra-materialistic poseurs in Halifax than Vancouver.
Halifax has a thriving drunk pub crawl where it is actually possible to crawl from one pub to another when you suitably shitfaced for the evening (or afternoon). Vancouver has a nightclub scene of exctasy and Red Bull and posing, shallow bullshitters who may pull a handgun on you if you make eye contact.
Halifax has a local music scene that has not been destroyed by real-estate speculators. Bars in Halifax can afford to host jam sessions without a cover charge. Artists can afford to live in Halifax and poor people can afford to attend a bar for an evening’s live entertainment. The same can no longer be said of Vancouver (see the Cobalt, etc).
Nova Scotia is in some ways stupid-ass backward and not very multicultural. Rural Nova Scotia has it’s share of white Christian fundamentalist nitwits (like Alabama, say). On the other hand, Vancouver is not really very multicultural either. Although Vancouver may have migrants from different parts of the world the dominant Vancouver culture is plain homogenous, trans-global capitalism (partly in the form of organized crime) and crass materialistic one-upmanship. If anything, Vancouver does not have the advantages of Asian culture but does have the disadvantages of German culture in the form of a plethora of dangerous BMW’s and Mercedes driven by Asian migrants. In Vancouver a BMW driver will run down a pedestrian because she believes pedestrians have no human rights. In Halifax a Chevette driver (the official car of Nova Scotia) would only run you down because they are shitfaced drunk – and they would not leave the scene without interrupting their cell phone conversation, like a Vancouver driver would.
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Drachen Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
@patriotz:
You have it mixed up Patriotz, the CMHC will insure 5-20% down mortgages, they figure that over 20% the banks can handle the risk. The banks NEVER have to go with CMHC insurance it just they’d be dumb not to since it’s the consumer that pays the premiums.
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whatthe f@#k Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
I was surprised to see a few posters jump on the freedoms vs China issue. There certainly are fewer freedomes in China which is why millions of Chinese are bailing out of that country now that the gates have been flung open.
Emigration is welcomed in China for political reason, it takes the overflow out of the country and backloads the excess onto sucker countrys like Canada.
China likes it when whole church group communities of Christian Evangelists leave Shanghai to suck up Canadian tax revenues. Its a win win for the Chinese.
The useless retired engineers and older workers who still qualify as ’skilled’ workers all get points to come to Canada even though they have no intention of ever paying a dime in taxes. Those guys are also encouraged to leave China for the free Health care and seniors residential opportunities courtesy of Canada. They get to sponsor all thier cousins kids for a free education too. What a nice bunch the Canadians are. Too bad they’re so naive.
China loves Canadian b;eeding heart Liberals who can’t shovel the tax payers money into the pockets of revenue sucking immigrants extended families fast enough. Free mah jong money for all, hooray. Bring in all the grand parents too. We have health care dollars aplenty. I’m only amazed that theres anyone left in China or the Punjab to keep up the garbage strewn cities and massacres. Why don’t we jst let them all in?
What I was surprised to see though that posters jumped on the freedom bandwagon while talking about China while standing still on the loss of freedoms we have been experiancing in this countery. Anyone who doesn’t want to end up in a shithole like China should be very vocal about our rights and freedoms here in Canada.
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Canadian born Chinese Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
@46WTF
I couldn’t agree with you more.
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scullboy Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Hey Vomitron,
You know Halifax pretty well. I hadn’t thought of it as Whistler – like but that’s not a bad comparison really.
It can definitely be stupid-ass and backward. Rural Nova Scotia can be pretty bad though I never considered it fundamental. I was invited to my 20th high school reunion this year and the woman who invited me went out of her way to say if I brought a “partner” he’d be made most welcome. All things considered I thought that was pretty cool.
It’s definitely homogenous…. there are white people, and more white people.
There’s a pretty sizable black community and a small native presence and that’s more or less it. That’s a downside but hey as I said before you don’t get people saying “Rich ****** are moving and that’s why it’s so expensive”. You also don’t get racist gits like Supraboy implying Canadians are stupid and lazy and that foreigners are going to push us out of our own country. If you go back and read post 5 you’ll see that’s exactly what he implies.
It’s funny because I didn’t appreciate the good points of Halifax when I was growing up there. It took traveling across the country to really get it.
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logic Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
“It took traveling across the country to really get it”
So true. Also true of realising the bad points, which is why more people from Van should travel.
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D. Bone Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
@logic:
Who from Vancouver can afford to travel?
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scullboy Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
That’s one thing that always surprised me about Van. So few people have travelled and fewer still have travelled anywhere in Canada. I supposed that’s why so many people swallow the the best place on earth bullcrap.
I’m not a huge fan of Toronto but it’s got its moments. I *love* Montreal but it’s hard to work there if you aren’t French. I really dislike Ottawa (especially in winter) but I can see why others like it.
Halifax isn’t perfect and I’ll miss the mountains for sure… but it’s got its charms.
Hey Supratard, ever been east of the Rockies? I’m dying to know. I’m willing to bet your idea of exotic travel is heading to Victoria for the weekend.
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FORREST Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
Cant’t afford $3800 for the Olympic hockey tickets from “Jetset”,but I want FREE fucking red mittens Mr.Taxayer.
That’s all I got to say about that.
FORREST
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
I lived in Halifax during university and a few years after. I generally agree with Vomitron and Scullboy on this. Too bad most people I knew there are gone now, because I would definitely go back. Sadly, my family and roots are HERE :^( and its harder to leave than it used to be.
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Vomitron Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Re: Halifax vs Vancouver
Both Halifax and Vancouver have disgraceful histories. Since the day the European Invaders arrived in British Columbia and Nova Scotia there has been trouble, not just for the aboriginal owners of those lands but for later migrants. Chinese migrants to British Columbia were tricked into coming to Canada then abused, ripped-off and subjugated beyond all human decency by white railroad barons, white parliamentarians and thuggish white mobs who at one point even set fire to Chinatown in Vancouver. Migrants to Vancouver from Punjab were actually turned back out to sea in one of the most disgraceful examples of white misbehavior in Canadian history. Nova Scotia has an appalling and mind-boggingly senseless history of subjugating and abusing Afro-Nova Scotians in Halifax.
British Columbia has made some effort to be less outwardly racist than its colonial history. The results have been mixed. There’s still racism, a few religious idiots from Punjab imported spousal murder and terrorism and some recent Porsche-driving robber-baron migrants from The People’s Republic have imported unrestrained über-capitalism that does not respect local laws and customs. Those quasi-criminal millionaires are a disgrace both in China and Canada. Whites are in no position to criticize however, since the crazycapitalistcrimespree Chinese migrant BMW drivers are really just the nouveau-whites of the day in Vancouver.
Nova Scotia has been a little slower to react to modern times. Nova Scotia recent history includes the notorious and racist wrongful murder conviction of Mi’kmaq Donald Marshall by idiot whites and a hilariously bizarre religious homophobic episode in Truro in 2007 when the Mayor of Truro refused to allow the raising of the rainbow flag. It was like Truro was in some type of time-warp or something.
Re: Supraboy calling Canadians stupid and lazy. That may well be true and Canadians may also be drunk and stoned on pot but what does Supraboy expect? That’s Canadian culture. European invaders to Canada are lazy, stupid and drunk because they have not smoked the peace pipe with the aboriginal people of Canada and they have psychological problems about being unrepentant oppressors. It’s a country in dissonance. Second-generation Chinese-Canadian Invaders are also lazy, stupid and drunk (and they smoke pot too).
Anyway, I’d rather have pot-heads than BMW’s and Mercedes in Vancouver. The city is absolutely uptight with the mindless consumerist ambitions of non-lazy and non-stupid Chinese migrants like Supraboy.
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Best place on meth Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
The Doug Casey article about investing in international real estate was fascinating, especially the part about Vancouver and its “sister” city of Hong Kong.
Doug: Let’s look at the various regions of the world. For people in the U.S., Canada is the easiest place to move to, and I do think Canada will fare much better than the U.S. in the Greater Depression. But that doesn’t mean I want anything to do with Canadian real estate now. It’s far from cheap – in fact, Vancouver real estate has become some of the most expensive in the world today. If I owned anything in Vancouver right now, I’d be hitting the bid.
I do have property in Hong Kong, which may be the most volatile major real estate market in the world. Right now, it appears to be at a manic top. I’m looking to sell my apartment there. This may be hard to believe, but I think I’ll get something on the order of about 25 times what I paid for it. Of course, I bought it very cheap, during a China crisis….
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crabman Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 8:31 pm
@D. Bone:
I already told you in comment 29. Renters!
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Im_a_retard Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
You idiots realize that when people say that someplace is “the best place on earth” they’re not actually running a qualitative comparison, right? They’re not going from city to city across the world, comparing the price of hamburgers and running it against a matrix of happiness and riches. That they’re really just saying that “they like it here, and they’re going to try to make a life”, right?
Anyway, this isn’t news, but Jim Flarhety just mentioned that EI will extend to the beginning of 2011. (As opposed to mid 2010 in the US) http://watch.bnn.ca/the-busine.....clip237651 . Not sure how much EI is, but people losing jobs probably aren’t too worried about mortgage payments. I’m thinking that housing costs will remain high through the Olympics until at least until this time next year. Canada is using the US as a buffer – they’ll probably let US hike rates and watch their public’s reaction before they make any changes here. If the US shows strength, it’ll pull Canada along with them.
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scullboy Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Hey retard:
EI benefits run around 400 bucks a week at maximum. Who in Van can run on 1600 bucks a month?
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scullboys helper Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
“Not sure how much EI is, but people losing jobs probably aren’t too worried about mortgage payments.”
A mortgage for an entry level 2nd floor,no view, ten year old condo will cost you $2,000 and the max you can get from EI is $1650 a month.
So as long as you can make a few hundred bucks panhanding, have no other debt, no car, no phone, no cable, and don’t actually have to eat any food for the month you’ll be fine.
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scullboys helper Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
Oh and you’ll have to let the strata fees go into arrears but don’t worry that’ll only go on the title on the 35 year mortgage that the bank holds so you won’t really have to worry about that for decades.
Being unemployed has been just fine in the U.S. except for the homeowner that gets foreclosed on every 7 seconds.
Foreclosures are still GOING UP in the U.S. which means resale prices are going to go up here too, duh!
Just talk to your local hairdresser, coffee barista, retail saleswoman, waiter and you’ll find out real estate in Vancouver is awesome and if you don’t buy now someone else will!
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arit Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
Im_A_Retard
Retard, you must be a realtor. Realtor. Yes. No doubt. Funny that you chose the name retard since the consensus here is that realtors are mostly retards with a few exceptions, like Paul Boenisch and Rob Chipman and Nikki Harrison.
(If you think Harrison is a retard beware, I hear she can eat you alive without blinking…)
Regards
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betamax Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
“when people say that someplace is “the best place on earth” they’re not actually running a qualitative comparison”
Then it’s even more idiotic to claim it, because they really do believe it.
“they’re really just saying that “they like it here, and they’re going to try to make a life””
You think they just shortened it to fit on a license plate? No, that’s not what they’re saying. Lots of people all over the world like where they live, but they don’t print license plates proclaiming its world-wide supremacy.
Obviously, even you can’t believe how ignorant and blindly biased the unwashed masses here are, because you’re forced to come up with some ludicrous ‘interpretation’ to justify what is otherwise unjustifiable.
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flip_this Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:12 am
@patriotz: “And if you are maybe talking about letting the banks charge what they want but the government paying the increase rather than the borrower, that will not happen either, because it would bankrupt the government.”
I am not sure what will bankrupt the government faster: losses incurred by the CMHC, plus economic collapse resulting from the housing deflation, or stealth taxation of the savers through the money printing. It seems to me that with the homeownership rate at 70%, the stealth confiscation of wealth through inflation is more politically acceptable. And the government doesn’t really have to go to the bond market and worry about rising funds for the mortgage bonds. It can continue with what they’ve been doing so far: creating money out of the thin air and buying mortgages from the banks. I don’t see how buying mortgages from the banks will bankrupt the banks. Just the opposite can be true: banks will be given freshly printed money first, therefore they will share in the wealth confiscated through inflation.
But here you might say that such massive money creation will lead to the increased rates on the Canadian government debt, and will bring down the Canadian Dollar. Well, with the US dollar being depreciated through the money printing, I am sure that with US being our biggest trading partner, BoC is concerned about the Canadian dollar appreciating in relation to the USD. So, they will make efforts to keep the Canadian dollar low. Keeping Canadian currency low can be accomplished through money printing, and money printing means artificially low rates.
To sum this up, this issue is bigger then just Vancouver housing market: there is a giant nation-wide housing credit bubble in Canada. If rates go up, a significant number of homeowners will, at the very least, find themselves in very tight financial circumstances, or worse, will go bankrupt. And this affects roughly 70% of voters. The government has two choices:
1. Let the bubble deflate on its own, and live through a short-term (but who really knows) deflation pain to clean up the system in order to ensure long-term economic prosperity, and thus lose the elections.
2. Keep the credit flowing into the housing market, which implies confiscating the wealth from the savers (a minority of electorate) and redistributing it to the borrowers (a majority of electorate).
Gee, I don’t know which one they will choose.
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Supraboy Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:37 am
@scullboy:
Mr. Scullboy, you’ve been crying about leaving this city. So what’s your excuse for staying around? You’re totally making a fool of yourself here. Are you afraid of leaving your comfort zone?
Scullboy is the type of person who despises the rich yet he wants to be rich himself. He wants to vent his anger yet his friends don’t give a bull crap about him, therefore, he vents his pain here on the internet.
He wants to leave yet he’s afraid of making the wrong move, as a result, not moving is the right move for himself. He will continue to complain about sky high prices as long as he sticks around Vancouver. When he gets to Halifax, he’ll complain about ridiculous taxes, sad winters, and lack of multicultural restaurants.
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flip_this Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:40 am
@Drachen: “I think what many people (including yourself) don’t get is that such high prices HURT the economy, people who are paying every last penny on their mortgage don’t have money to spend elsewhere and the loss of that discretionary spending hurts the vendors and their suppliers and the banks who give them loans.”
Drachen, please don’t misunderstand me: I absolutely get the point that low interest rates, interferences in the markets, and the resulting mislocation of resources hurt the economy. I grew up in a planned economy, and I do have a first-hand knowledge of what mislocation of resources looks like.
The issue here is not what’s good for the economy, but what the federal government and BoC would do. I think that their motivation is not what’s the best for the economy; It is different: most politicians just want to get reelected. And they don’t get reelected by letting an imaginary housing wealth of 70% of their voters crash to the ground.
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Vince Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:58 am
scullboy…na na na na hey hey hey goodbye
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Supraboy Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:58 am
@scullboy:
Regarding whether I’ve been to east of the Rockies, I’ve been over to Europe 4 times in the past 3 years for work and vacation. You’re the only idiot who’s stuck in the same city for life asking friends for pictures of halifax. He probably sent you a picture of Whistler in the summer and told you it’s halifax. I’m currently in Bangkok sipping coconut juice laughing at your sorry butt.
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tracy Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 1:02 am
Good one vince!
Scullboy, it’s time for you and your attitude to leave.
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stagnate Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 1:13 am
flip, those are good posts; indeed hard to identify a government motivation for deflation at this point. not to mention that deflationary debt liquidation has not worked in the u.s. or japan because the debt problem is too sizeable. basically lots of pain and no gain- the u.s. and japan are going to have to resort to monetization anyway. like most major countries the cat got out of the bag in canada and it’s too late to take the moral high ground. i’ve said it before, i anticipate the bear vs. cmhc battle to heat up. i warned anyone who would listen the last few years to keep an eye on the cmhc as a window to authority intent.
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logic Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 2:32 am
“2. Keep the credit flowing into the housing market, which implies confiscating the wealth from the savers (a minority of electorate) and redistributing it to the borrowers (a majority of electorate).”
————-
Actually, there are also a lot of savers – ie boomers with retirement pots – who are getting screwed by low interest rates. They represent one hell of a lot of votes too.
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logic Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 2:36 am
Superboi said: “I’m currently in Bangkok sipping coconut juice out of a ladyboi’s butt. ”
——–
Well, enjoy that.
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Anonymous Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 2:42 am
“Personal attacks are not acceptable and will get you banned as a contributor. There’s an important distinction between pointing out the errors in someones statements and calling them an idiot. The former is acceptable, the latter is not.”
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chip Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 3:43 am
This blog has gone to the dogs.
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patriotzed Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 8:23 am
@Drachen:
Nope, that’s just plain wrong, the banks MUST get mortgage insurance (from CMHC or a “private” insurer which is also government backed) if the down payment is less than 20%.
“The Canadian Bank Act prohibits most federally regulated lending institutions from providing mortgages without mortgage loan insurance for amounts that exceed 80% of the value of the home or purchases with less than 20% down payment.”
http://www.cmhc.ca/en/co/moloin/moloin_002.cfm
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flip_this Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 8:32 am
@logic: I assume that most of the boomers own houses, therefore they have a significant portion of their wealth tied up in the housing. Besides, deflation in the housing market will likely trigger deflation in most of the other investments.
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patriotzed Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 8:36 am
@flip_this:
Low interest rates – on Crown debt and guaranteed deposits – are not in themselves the problem. We have seen the most serious deflation since the 1930’s and low interest rates for these are natural in such a situation.
The problem is government guarantees on mortgage lending which are misallocating capital. Business which want to expand and hire people are not getting loans because the bank would rather lend the money to some fool buying an overpriced house, because they are assured of getting their money back.
Yields on corporate debt, preferreds, and common shares are much higher than mortgage rates because the market is pricing in the risk properly. Telus for example has a dividend yield of 5.5% on common shares.
If the government would get the hell out of the mortgage business, as it should, banks would be asking for higher yields than this on mortgages without a substantial down payment IMHO.
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patriotzed Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 8:44 am
@flip_this:
No I disagree, other assets will be priced according to their own fundamentals. Look at the US stock market this year which has gone up over 50% with housing going nowhere.
You might also want to take a look at the Great Depression where the stock market bottomed in late 1932 while housing continued to decline for some years and didn’t recover until the end of WWII. Or the 1980’s which saw a big bull market in stocks and bonds post-1982 while housing went nowhere for 5 years in BC, and for over a decade in Alberta and southwestern US.
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flip_this Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 9:19 am
@patriotzed: I should’ve said “artificially low interest rates”. I subscribe to the opinion that central banks should stay out of interfering with the interest rates. Artificially set interest rates convey distorted information to the economic entities on the availability of savings, which leads to mislocation of capital. The housing market is just a subset of the economy, distorted by the central planning.
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flip_this Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 9:51 am
@patriotzed: “No I disagree, other assets will be priced according to their own fundamentals.”
I should think that if housing market crashes, fundamentals of the businesses tied to the domestic economy will deteriorate for some time (short term pain for the long term gain). Due to the wealth effect people will spend less, banks will be hurt, lots of construction jobs will be lost in a comparatively brief period of time. The construction workers will have to retrain and seek employment in some other industries. So, this looks to me like a structural change, and structural changes are painful.
Your examples bring up an interesting point: The great depression started with the deflation of the stock market bubble, there was no nation-wide housing bubble at that time. Later on, with abandonment of the gold standard the US authorities tried with some success to reinflate the original bubble. The money printing, unlike our present situation, was not directed specifically at the housing. It appears that the excess liquidity created by the money printing unless specifically directed, goes into the most liquid assets (stocks and bonds) first, and then propagates through the rest of the economy. So, do you think that the government will abandon the reinflation of the housing bubble, abolish the CMHC, and turn its attention to creating bubbles in some other asset markets to keep the baby boomer voters happy?
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Drachen Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 10:26 am
@flip_this:
But there also comes a time when politicians have to start looking at the big picture. I think they kept it afloat all this times in the hopes of getting a majority so they could make some major changes to Canada, now that they’ve failed and a majority is not on the horizon they’ve got to look at saving the party, if the Conservative party becomes synonymous with Canada’s biggest (by far!) ever economic fiasco which will be blamed on incompetence (if they can spin it) or cold political calculation, putting their interests above all consequences they’ll be as broken as they were in the ’90s, probably without any reasonable chance of resurrection this time.
Also, with Harper and McKay looking at the possibility of a war crimes trial in the Hague I think they might be starting to think about exiting the spotlight sometime soon.
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domus Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 10:32 am
@flip_this: Excellent analysis, I agree with most arguments.
I would add one thing: normally buying RE is a good inflation hedge. However that is not ture for people with little or no equity in their home, like most new buyers. They are basically ‘renting’ their homes and their rent is indexed to the market interest rate.
When inflation will hit, interest rates will jump. Their mortgage bills will become unmanageable. RE will crash. There is no way around it: under any scenario, RE is not a good place to be. It was a good investment 10 years ago.
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Drachen Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 10:33 am
@patriotzed:
There’s a problem with your examples.
Both examples demonstrate how housing prices are not directly tied to stock prices but neither demonstrates how stocks fare when a highly overvalued real-estate bubble crashes. For counter-examples look at nearly every real-estate bubble recently and what happened to other investments when that bubble crashed, Japan’s economy took a big hit, UK, US, Australia all took big hits when their markets crashed. Why should it be different here?
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stagnate Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 10:43 am
domus, interest rates would rise but the “real interest rates” will be key. if real interest rates are negative or close real estate would do ok, even in the current environment.
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Real Life Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 10:47 am
This week I heard this:
1. Hotel in Whistler – “last year was bad, this year is worse”(Global TV)
2.Fitness Centre in FV.- closing after 12 years (friend works there)
3.Condo back on market for -20% than paid 18 months ago.(FTB friend)
4.Hours cut by 50% (friend that is an electrician)
5.Renegotiated rent (friend had landlord reduce rent from $1250 to $1050 in Chilliwack – for 1 year old 4 bedroom house.)
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Im_a_retard Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 10:47 am
“important distinction between pointing out the errors in someones statements and calling them an idiot.”
…or a real estate agent. Please don’t hurt my feelings. No, you idiot, I’m a retard because I’m also a bear for the last 3 years. What am I going to do, pretend that the world is falling around me when it obviously isn’t? Pretend that I’m some evil genius that has it figured out? I’ve been WRONG and I’m trying to understand why.
“A mortgage for an entry level 2nd floor,no view, ten year old condo will cost you $2,000 and the max you can get from EI is $1650 a month.”
I can go with this if you factor in strata fees and taxes, it can *easily* be $2 – 3k per month. Of course, given this statement, one might also assume that EI is $1650 /month per *individual*(?) Which means that it’s possible they’re still ok.
Even at extremes, selling at a loss or allowing foreclosure is a calculated loss. Someone isn’t going to take a $50k hit if it means alternatively adding $400 to their high interest credit card each month to get through some “brief” but rough times. These types of deals will probably only come from buildings attacked by special levies, extreme family hardships, or quadrupling of interest rates.
Incidentally, @ Royal Bank, if interest rates rise, but you’ve already been paying off the mortgage for X years, they’re willing to extend the amortization up to your contract (extend by X years) in order to keep your payments low. Many here seem to think that interest rate rising will force sell many units. I think that as long as interest rates rise steadily, there’s enough time to keep it under control.
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certainly Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 10:51 am
Many here seem to think that interest rate rising will force sell many units.
That’s a good point, it didn’t take a rise in interest rates to make the US market crash.
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certainly Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 11:02 am
@Anonymous: You might notice that those are the guidelines for contributors that write articles for this site, not for commentors that respond to them.
I agree with your general point though. I just skip over the insulting comments and read the ones that are interesting.
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flip_this Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 11:11 am
@Drachen: “I think they kept it afloat all this times in the hopes of getting a majority so they could make some major changes to Canada, now that they’ve failed and a majority is not on the horizon they’ve got to look at saving the party,..”
You don’t think they are past the point of no return? If deflating the housing bubble will cause a major economic pain, won’t that hurt their reputation? the concervatives helped to create the bubble in the first place. With the inflation is somewhat easier to pass the blame on: increasing price levels can be easily blamed on the greedy domestic speculators, on the greedy international speculators, on George Soros, there is an endless list of possibilities.
Please correct me if I am wrong, I do not follow the politics in Canada very closely, but didn’t the Liberal party approved the Canadian stimulus package? Is there a major political party with an agenda to deflate the housing bubble, to stop the money printing, and to stop the low interest rate subsidies to the homeowners? If theresn’t, this means that the other parties find the calls for deflating the housing bubble and letting the free market take its course politically dangerous, and unpopular.
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goldie Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 11:28 am
@Vomitron: Apparently, this board is frequented by unrepentant hippies, too.
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goldie Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 11:33 am
@arit: Just when I thought this board had become a forum for rationale thought, you ruined it.
You’re probably one of the psycho nutjobs who bombarded Harrison’s website at Bloviating Garth’s urging the other day.
Congratulations on being a cyber stalker.
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flip_this Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 11:43 am
@domus: “When inflation will hit, interest rates will jump. Their mortgage bills will become unmanageable. RE will crash. There is no way around it: under any scenario, RE is not a good place to be. It was a good investment 10 years ago”.
I agree with your conclusion, but for a different reason. I think that they are capable of keeping the mortgage rates low for an indefinite period of time by buying mortgage-backed securities from the banks. But I don’t think that the Federal government cares one way or another of what is going on with the housing market in BC. They are only paying attention to the country-wide statistics. Since the BC market is the most overinflated, it might crash first, before the extra subsidies/stimulus arrive. Or it might not crash at all, depending on what the Federal government does. This is why I agree with your conclusion that buying a property in Vancouver is risky.
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joycer Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 11:50 am
Read Garth’s latest post on Victoria, mentioned the 5% drop in single family homes in one month. Did a search and got the statistics from Victoria’s real estate board:
http://www.vreb.org/mls_statis.....stics.html
By comparison with October 2008, inventory was lower (down 31 percent), sales are up by more than double, and add to that historically low interest rates. So how is it that in the face of reduced supply (listings), increased demand (sales) and the lowest carrying costs ever (interest rates) that prices still fell?
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Jimbosan Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:22 pm
I’m an occasional lurker who finds himself mesmerized by the discussion much as I was by the first season of Trailer Park Boys. Yes, it’s mostly stupid, but there are moments of real brilliance and the overall package is entertaining in a disquieting way.
Speaking of the Trailer Park Boys, there may well be subjective reasons for choosing Halifax over Vancouver, but allow me to inject some fact into the discussion of their relative climates.
It is definitely not drier in Halifax, which receives 1,421 millimetres of precipitation annually compared to 1,199 in Vancouver. Virtually the entire eastern third of Canada, from Quebec City eastward, receives more precipitation than southwestern B.C., and indeed, Victoria is drier than almost anywhere east of the Great Lakes. Halifax and Vancouver also enjoy almost the same amount of sunshine, between 1,900 and 2,000 hours a year. Incidentally, most Canadians cities except for those on the prairies and in the B.C. Interior, which are sunnier, and places like St. John’s and Prince Rupert (cloudier) fall within a fairly narrow range.
A proponent of Halifax weather might argue that it rains less there, which is certainly true. That is because it snows more. Why does it snow more? Because it is a good deal colder. The average annual temperature in Halifax is 6.67 degrees compared to 10.08 in Vancouver. You can check all of this out at the Environment Canada Weather Winners site: http://www.on.ec.gc.ca/weather.....tro-e.html
I must also comment on a remark that Vancouver residents don’t travel and cannot afford to. Statistics Canada breaks down international travel (one or more nights abroad) by region only, but in 2007, the latest year for which statistics are available, British Columbians ranked as the best-travelled Canadians, accounting for 16.0 of trips compared to 13.3% of the population.
Now back to growing dope and stealing shopping carts.
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:42 pm
@Jimbosan: Re: sunshine. This is an issue for my wife who is from the east coast. Vancouver has longer days in the summer (which is grand) but shorter days in the winter. The winter darkness here is hard for her. Vancouver is at 49 degrees latitude while Halifax is at just over 44 degrees (Nova Scotia ranges from 43-46).
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reader Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:43 pm
POPE!
Please Ban Supraboy his trolling is ruining the blog and that’s exactly what he wants.
He used to call himself satv and krissh,thumbsup,dave, and John.
It ruins an otherwise good blog and she’s racist.
Thanks,
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whatthe f@#k Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:50 pm
The spin, the spin, stop the spin !!!!!!!!! First the incompetant assholes at BC HEalth Clinics force sick people to stop asking to get the H1N1 vaccine because hockey players and boards of directors needed it more. Now they’re blaming US for the low turnout at the clinics. Will the assholes ever suck in some ethics? Probably not.
http://www.vancouversun.com/he.....story.html
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arit Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 12:56 pm
goldie
Hello and welcome to the forum!
“arit: Just when I thought this board had become a forum for rationale thought, you ruined it.”
I have always been known as a party pooper!
“You’re probably one of the psycho nutjobs who bombarded Harrison’s website at Bloviating Garth’s urging the other day.”
I almost did, yes, but decided against it because I am afraid of her, seriously, brrrr. Beautiful, smart blonde women are very dangerous.
“Congratulations on being a cyber stalker.”
I am a stalker in real life too. Look behind you now, see that bald guy typing into his phone with an evil smile? Bwahahaaha!
Best regards,
arit
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stagnate Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 1:09 pm
reader: posters like supraboy and scullboy make for entertaining reading; even hard core bears would get bored seeing nothing but posts complaining about prices. toughen up.
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Dave Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 1:13 pm
@Jimbosan:
Thanks for the reality check. Good research.
For comparison, Victoria gets under 900mm of rain and 2,100 hours of sunshine per year.
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Dave Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 1:16 pm
@joycer:
If you look at the history of Victoria prices, you should be able to find your answer.
Prices are volatile month to month because volume is low and it is a diverse market. High volumes on either extreme of the market, can sway prices. To understand Victoria, you are better to use a running average. I would be willing to bet prices will be higher this month even though sales volume will be lower.
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observer Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Russia tops global fraud survey
Canada places fourth in the world in PricewaterhouseCoopers economic survey
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1371089/
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observer Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 1:39 pm
@Dave: Very sensible answer and probably correct. But it could also be that the market is starting to get fatigued from the stimulus.
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Dave Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 1:59 pm
@Vomitron:
Every culture is guilty of unethical conduct towards other cultures. The aboriginal people that we here before Europeans were far from being ethical using today’s standards. For example, the only slavery that has existed in this Province was prior to the white man. Have a look at what the Incas and Aztecs did to each other.
We are all human and we all have the same infallibilities. Those in power have historically abused those who were not in power, regardless of culture. Claiming that one group is more guilty than any other is to miss the larger point of us all being part of a single race. White people have probably done more bad things to others for the simple reason that they have been the culture with the most power for the last few centuries.
As time marches forward, our ethical conduct has gone up. This is a slow progress and we are still making strides forward. Just only 5 years ago, gays could not marry in this country and are still unable to in the majority of the world.
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Vomitron Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 3:57 pm
@Dave:
There is no indication whatsoever that human civilization has advanced in British Columbia. My point is that recent successions of migrants to British Columbia have been progressively more stupid while at the same time claiming that the previous wave of migrants is stupider and lazier than they themselves are(that is Supraboy’s exact anthropological report from his private jet, or wherever he is while spending the millions he has made flipping Vancouver real estate).
I would like to remind readers that there was a successful form of property ownership in British Columbia for 10,000 years before the Europeans and Chinese arrived and transformed into stupid and lazy Canadians (according to Supraboy’s study result) and henceforth made Vancouver a craps table for speculators and not a very good place to live. So, Vancouver was an ok place to live for thousands of years and suddenly Vancouver is a failed civilization where stupid and lazy Canadians compete with each other like rats in a cage for poorly constructed, mouldy condos, the air is polluted, crime is a major industry and robber-barons from the PRC with BMW SUV’s run over stupid and lazy Canadians who are legally walking in the crosswalk.
Looking at Vancouver from a global perspective it has become the apparent world capital of mortgage-slavery with no real industry other than real estate speculation and crime. The standard of living for about 90% of the people in Vancouver is not very good and appears to be worsening. Could this situation in Vancouver be termed an advancement of human civilization in any terms?
I also submit that the quality of restaurants in Vancouver has not improved in 10,000 years and it would be nice to have a few more restaurant inspectors in Vancouver.
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scullboy Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Wow Supra, I am impressed. I can’t figure out of you’re deliberately trolling or if you really are that fucking stupid.
I’m leaving Vancouver you friggin’ tard. THe living room’s packed with moving boxes. My flight out is Monday.
I don’t hate the rich, fucktard, I come from actual money. People who own leaky condos in Yaletown aren’t wealthy, by and large. They simply hold the title to a piece of property that shot up in assessed value. These people are annoying as hell when they act wealthy but they aren’t actually rich.
I’d write more but I have a giant hangover from my going away party. You know, the kind of party people throw you when you’re going away.
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what? Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Brave cop tases 10 year old. What a hero eh? A real hero!!
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/a.....aser1.html
Be proud that such heroes are being paid for this crap.
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Jim Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Usually when you have high interest rates you have high inflation. I can’t see interest rates going up without inflation going up and the us gov couldn’t afford to pay interest on their debt with no inflation. So, having a highly indebted asset can be an advantage in inflationary times.
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logic Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:13 pm
“”Her mother told me to tase her if I needed to.”
—
I think you might want to point that finger at the (retarded) mother first.
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scullboys helper Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Scullboy chill out Supraboys goal is to upset you. That’s what trolls do.
If you ignore it you won’t give it the satisfaction and it will go away.
I saw supraboy last night and I kicked his ass, he cried. It just likes to get a rise out of people because it’s life is pathetic, it’s never kissed a girl, never lived on it’s own, most likely has a really low level tech support job, no assets, and lives in a basement suite WITH his domineering parents.
Treat it like you would the bible thumpers that approach you on the street or the jehovahs that knock on your door, keep walking don’t take the bait.
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scullboys helper Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:14 pm
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
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scullboys helper Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Supratroll is just an ass.
Dave intentionally misinterprets data and uses suggestive language to imply what he knows isn’t true. Why he does this is a good question but in all likelihood he’s stealing logging into someone else’s wireless network because he can’t even afford cable internet. Think how low you’d have to feel to intentionally try to ruin a blog and in some cases actually confuse people into becoming economic slaves to a very expensive “asset” that will decrease in value for decades.
Google what happened in Sacramento in late 2007 and look at what’s happening here now.
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tincup Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:33 pm
@Jimbosan:
Jimbosan, thanks for the climate info. I was looking that up myself just recently. The one thing that I miss in the data would an indication of hours of rain. It would be possible that two places have the same total amount of rain, but one gets it in large, short bursts and the other gets it in never-ending weeks of drizzle. I don’t think that data is readily available (although I know it is collected). It would be interesting to see how Vancouver compares on that score, and see if that is what contributes to the perception of the weather here.
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Dave Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:48 pm
@Vomitron:
You wouldn’t last a week under the prior model.
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Drachen Says:
November 21st, 2009 at 7:53 pm
@Im_a_retard:
“I’m also a bear for the last 3 years. What am I going to do, pretend that the world is falling around me when it obviously isn’t? Pretend that I’m some evil genius that has it figured out? I’ve been WRONG and I’m trying to understand why.”
Well first off you weren’t wrong (but I see you’ve hedged your bets and changed your right answer to the wrong one). Just because the market hasn’t fallen does not mean it’s fundamentally sound. Many many times in the past people have predicted doom and gloom for a bubble market and endured years of mocking until the market finally falls, it’s as normal a part of the cycle as the bulls claiming “It’s different this time/here.”
In fact this market has been on a path that doesn’t reflect market fundamentals since the CMHC has been offering mortgage insurance and I believe the only way to return to a stable real-estate market is to abolish the CMHC or at least remove their insurance mandate. If you look at the historic prices of real estate in Canada you can easily tell the time before and after CMHC intervention by the volatility of the markets. The reason things haven’t fallen yet in spite of a truly ridiculous number of factors indicating a crash is simply further CMHC intervention, adjusting their minimums to 5-35 and the Cons increasing the insurance cap from 350 Bn. to 600 Bn. over two years (the explosion in CMHC insured properties during the bubble ALONE should be enough link to show how the two are intertwined).
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Supraboy Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:48 am
@scullboys helper:
You’re probably using a different nickname talking to yourself, either that or you’re his gay buddy. Why don’t you just pack it in and move to Halifax with Scumboy. How did you kick my ass? My ass is still in one piece, no bumps or bruises. You probably kicked your dad because he asked you to pay the utility bills and you were busy jacking off on gay porns.
So Scullboy is leaving on Monday, good riddance. I’ll go to the airport and say Sayonara. What’s your flight number?
How does it feel to get exposed? You know I figured your attitude out. Must suck doesn’t it. People like you will always be jealous of the rich, face it, they found a way to make money and you sat there on your thumbs. Wait till you find out that the harmonized tax in Nova Scotia is higher than BC, you’ll be bitching at something else over there like a street corner bum by GM Place.
Better find out about their HST:
The Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) is administered by the federal government and applies to all goods and services with some exceptions. It combines the federal Goods and Services Tax (GST) of 5 per cent and Nova Scotia’s value-added tax of 8 per cent.
Go to bitch there, you fool.
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Supraboys helper Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:00 am
@scullboys helper:
Supraboy chill out Scullboy’s goal is to upset you. That’s what trolls do.
If you ignore it you won’t give it the satisfaction and it will go away.
I saw Scullboy last night and I kicked his ass, he grabbed his balls in tears. He just likes to get a rise out of people because his life is pathetic, he’s never kissed a girl, never lived on his own, most likely has a really low level tech support job, no assets, and lives in a basement suite WITH his domineering parents.
Treat it like you would the bible thumpers that approach you on the street or the jehovahs that knock on your door, keep walking don’t take the bait.
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scullboy Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:14 am
Why doesn’t it surprise me that Supra is in Bangkok. How’s that lucrative ladyboy career working out for you dude?
Dude, I’ve got quite a few gay buddies, being gay myself. I’m as surprised as anyone else that I have a fan but hey…..
G’bye Supratard. I’ll be thinking of you when I’m eating lobster at some…. what was it? “Multicultural restaurant?” No rat-poo H1N1 infested Richmond dum sum for me buddy. I’m not that worried about about the food but that’s mainly because I’m a trained chef. Although the seafood here is good, some of the best seafood in the world (Malapeque oysters, anyone?) is found in Atlantic Canada.
Even better then the food, I can buy myself a decent home. It isn’t the city you live in, it’s the life you make for yourself that counts. Everyone’s experience is different of course but I find Vancouver overpriced. It’s a pretty town but not as laid-back as you’d think, and infested with poo flavoured dim sum eating Donald trump wannabees like Supra.
I’m glad to leave them on this coast.
As for the rest of you: Best of luck
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Anonymous Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 12:14 pm
@other ted:
Unfortunately you’re right: democracy was discarded as absolutely inefficient in ancient Rome already. Inefficient unless you’re using special means to manipulate the populace. Then it works … but not for populace. Then it appears government and government “friends” who benefit from this friendship. Eventually democracy leads to socialism. That’s what going on in Canada and especially in the States. The target is to make everybody happy. But you understand who will pay for this “happiness”, right?
Back to the blog’s direction. We definitely need our Canadian Peter Schiff. Even if we know that for sure Vancouver housing bubble will bust, we need a person who will tell the truth, who has guts and clear understanding of what’s going on in the country and more important where we’re going.
119 X ‘Real Life’ – “This week I heard this…..” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 12:45 pm
[...] records for efficiency of story telling on VREAA. Please send your own observations. Here’s Real Life at vancouvercondo.info 21 Nov 10:43 am [...]
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scullboys helper Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:03 pm
I’ll see you at the airport tonight supraboy.
You’re the janitor in the departure washroom right?
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vreaa Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Aforementioned Vancouver Sun article is remarkable for its caution. I have archived it at VREAA as a post labelled “I read a realistic and balanced RE article in the Vancouver Sun” and taken the liberty of adding some comment.
excerpts:
“In B.C., which has the highest prices and biggest mortgages, buyers seem more confident than other Canadians that prices will continue to rise. Even if they are right it would be prudent to remain cautious.”
“Low interest rates have been a godsend for mortgage borrowers, and a curse for savers…. But interest rates can change in the blink of an eye.”
“Financial advisers warn that real estate valuations can go down, as well as up, and people should diversify their investment portfolios, especially in retirement when a house should represent no more than 25 per cent to 33 per cent of total wealth.”
“Would-be buyers should enter the market with eyes wide open and view their purchase first as a place to live, and only second as a store of wealth.”
——–
VREAA editorial comment -
1. What percentage of Vancouver owners are on target to have their house represent no more than 33% of their total net wealth by retirement? Answer: Very few. Currently, for many owners, their home value represents greater than 100% of their net worth in that the outstanding mortgage is larger than their other savings and investments. And rising RE prices have further decreased the sense of need to build savings outside of RE equity.
2. What percentage of Vancouver owners currently view their homes ‘first as a place to live, and only second as a store of wealth’? Answer: Very, very few.
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jesse Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:26 pm
@Drachen:
If CMHC was the major culprit for high prices, why did the market fall off a cliff through 2008 and into 2009? CMHC insurance cannot solve the affordability problem, only lower interest rates or lower prices can do that and the lower interest rates tank is empty.
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Anonymous Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 5:18 pm
supraboy how can you be in bangkok and richmond at the same time?
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Anonymous Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 5:23 pm
he can’t, hence BS sensor continues to go bing bing!
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Arwen Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 6:06 pm
For those with weather interests (further to Jimbosan’s post), here’s a few handy charts on Vancouver vs. the Canadian average on a month by month basis, which makes a closer comparison to how we’re actually living:
http://www.citystats.ca/city/B.....ml#climate
Vancouver is dry in the summer and wet in the winter.
The weather can’t really be summed up in yearly terms for me, at least. I came back after years in Ontario’s snow belt: the comparative brightness of reflected snow meant I never experienced the late January/early February blues in Ontario that I get here (though the addition of a D supplement has made a world of difference.)
I love Vancouver for a number of things, including the greenery, my friends and family, and the transit system: but I would happily return to Ontario *weather*. Oh, and architecture. Essentially, those elements of a geography are subjective, of course.
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arit Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 6:24 pm
scullboy
I’ll be at the airport tonight, what time is your flight?
arit
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Drachen Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 7:35 pm
@jesse:
“If CMHC was the major culprit for high prices, why did the market fall off a cliff through 2008 and into 2009?”
The CMHC has been a major factor (I believe) in the making of the bubble, that does not mean it can indefinitely prevent the collapse, nor does it mean that CMHC insured mortgages ALONE are responsible for the bubble (this should be obvious as they’ve been available to the rest of Canada for as long as they’ve been available here and we clearly have a different scale of bubble from the rest of Canada, Quebec for example has had stable prices while English Canada has gone nuts.)
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what a joke Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:05 pm
update: a recent first time buyer who came here on a tourist visa, said CRA refunded him PTT even though he is a non-citizen, non-permanent resident of Canada.
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Boombust Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:01 pm
“Quebec for example has had stable prices” -Drachen
People in Quebec tend to rent more than own…would that explain the difference?
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Stanislav Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:28 pm
Hot market is not what is seems. See this Vancouver law firm’s website to get an idea of the extent of presale litigation. It will get bigger in the 2010
http://www.harpergrey.com/serv.....putes.html
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arit Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:46 pm
Stanislav
Excellent link, I allowed myself to post this remarkable list of SUCKERS:
Harper Grey LLP represents individuals and groups of pre-sale purchasers who signed contracts for major lower mainland condo projects including:
33 Pender – Vancouver
Aria 2 – Port Moody
Aura Townhomes – Surrey
Axis – Burnaby
Cosmo – Vancouver
Donovan – Vancouver
Espana – Vancouver
Esprit 2 – Burnaby
Fairmont Pacific Rim – Vancouver
First on First – Vancouver
Fitzsimmons Walk – Whistler
Ginger – Vancouver
H & H – Vancouver
INvue – Kelowna
Mariner – Vancouver
Millennium Waters – Vancouver
Patina – Vancouver
Quattro – Surrey
Silhouette – Burnaby
Sophia – Vancouver
Tangiers Townhouses – Revelstoke
The Breeze at Airdrie – Calgary
The Exchange – Vancouver
Three Harbour Green – Vancouver
TV Towers – Vancouver
Watermark – South Surrey
Watermark Beach Resort – Osoyoos
Westwood Village Edgemont – Coquitlam
Whitetale Lane – Coquitlam
Woodwards District – Vancouver
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arit Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:14 pm
And I posted it at Garth’s as well, just to be absolutely sure everybody sees it!
Cheers!
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Supraboys helper Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:42 pm
@scullboy:
Finally you’re leaving. It’s about time. Hopefully, we’ve heard the last of you. Spew all the nonsense you want, you’re officially out of here. Vancouver is better off without a cry baby jealous loser like you.
Brag all you want about Halifax, we know it’s a shit town. Once your honeymoon is over with Halifax, you’ll be bitching like a mofo about anything you can bitch about including the ugly hookers working at the nearest trailer park bar. People like you will never find happiness. It’s all about being jealous. Instead of being jealous about the nearest Benz blasting down Robson, perhaps you should look yourself in the mirror in Halifax and ask yourself why you’re a poor phuck and why others can be smart enough to accumulate wealth.
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socialismworks Says:
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:15 am
Millions of poles, yugoslavians, hugarians, russians, chinese, germans, cubans and north koreans know that socialism is the only path to success. That is why Canada and specifically Vancouver will always be the best place on earth people. If you look at every socialist nation you will see that real estate prices only ever go up in socialist countries. So if you are a real estate bear (capitalist pig) you’ll need to move to the US. Meanwhile us socialist bulls will stay here and enjoy the workers paradise.
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scullboy Says:
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:32 am
Wow Supraboy, you really are an odd little fucker.
Wealth is money in the bank and investments that are paying you dividends dude. Most of the BMWs, mercedes and whatever are leased by trashy RIchmond kids who want to appear wealthy. You and your cheezy little banana buddies worship the appearance of wealth and desperately try to pretend you are high rollers, even if it means living in Mummy and Daddy’s basement.
Christ I’m glad to be out of here and away from cheezy, Ed Hardy wearing, BMW leasing, poo flavored Dim sum eating Richmond trash.
Why the hell would I be jealous? Dude you’re not getting it, are you? I come from a wealthy family. I don’t particularly feel the need to prove that in any way shape or form, but it’s true nonetheless.
Oh, why am I bothering? You just aren’t smart enough to get it and you never will.
Thank you Supraboy, you make leaving Vancouver behind so much easier. I’ll miss the mountains and Stanley Park but I really won’t miss the people.
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Boombust Says:
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:13 am
Buh bye!