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November 29th, 2009 at 12:10 am
At anon 98: I don’t get you point, sorry. Are you saying flippers are “good” and FTB are “Bad”? Why?
Regards
arit
November 29th, 2009 at 12:07 am
logic, you are logical.
I see what you say rp. Each one of these buyers is dead. A “financial zombie” (if I may coin the term, put it up there with sticker-flicker). The financial zombie is dead, but doesn’t know he is dead.
So each one of these zombies is one less competition for for arit when he buys cash-only in 2016. I like it, I really do.
Regards,
ari
November 28th, 2009 at 11:21 pm
arit, flippers are real people too! In fact most of them live right here in BC. Flippers are like crocodiles. They leave no mistake who they are and will be around long after the rest of the market dies off. Compare that to a FTB who fools himself into thinking he’s somehow morally superior to the “flipper” at the same moment he applies for his CMHC insurance on a high leverage loan. The croc may be ugly but at least it’s transparent.
November 28th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
#95 @arit: “they interviewed this realtor lady buying TWO apartments.”
That’s not disgusting, that’s ideal. Attention greedy sleaze-balls: please buy as much real estate as you can temporarily afford.
November 28th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
Arit, no – suicidal.
November 28th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Hey, OK!
I just saw at the news that there are long lineups to buy pre-sales at “The Mark” at Yaletown. The building will be ready in 2013 and there were people camping all night for the privilege.
Just after they said “this time it’s people buying homes, not speculators”, they interviewed this realtor lady buying TWO apartments.
Disgusting….
Regards
arit
November 28th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
You can see the herd mentality in Supra’s latest video: “bukkake lady boy 69″.
Honestly Supra, we know bow desperate you are to lease that 3 series BMW but that’s sinking pretty low. Which are worse, the bukkake movies or the scat videos?
November 28th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
@Supraboy
What you don’t say is that the supposed “free enterprisers” who
run the system are a bunch of lazy money printers who rig the system when
capital markets don’t go their way. Pot-kettle-black?
November 28th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Usually for things that costs more than 100$ i am doing a little bit of research, so for me was clear that some people just got caught in the bidding process. I have seen a computer auction as well and same thing people (again mostly asians) paid 1000$ for refurbished laptops when you know you get a decent notebook for 800$ even at Future Shop. The herd mentality and the need to be the highest bidder just to get the trophy (bike,laptop, house, you name it) it is painful and amusing to watch, it is a show off culture that doesn’t make sense to me.
Having 500-1000$ in hand doesn’t make you smart, in a society based on DEBT, a credit card is easy to obtain.
November 28th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
“Amazed by the stupidity of people”
…
Where in the world can you get low income household benefits, childcare & daycare allowances, quarterly GST rebates, universal health care, mortgage packages without documentary proof for special groups, refunds of PTT to foreign buyers that is supposedly eligible only to Citizens and landed immigrants, undetected overseas income wired here as unsolicited gifts by relatives and family members, .. and the list goes on.
My neighbors a family of 4 from Beijing, get around the loophole by cutting down their overseas trips and travel by turns to mind their various businesses abroad without having to declare it to CRA.
Now who are you calling stupid.
November 28th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
@89
How come those stupid people have the money to buy $500 old mountain bikes? If they are stupid, you would not think they have more money than you.
November 28th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Casinos and herd mentality, that is what i see happening in Vancouver. @ years ago we were looking to buy bicycles and attended an Able Auction Bike sale in one saturday. The crowd was bidding on old mountain bikes, some of them with double suspension going over 500 CAD. Amazed by the stupidity of people(mostly asian – no offense what so ever) in the crowd, we stopped at Sportchek and bought 2 brand new MBs for 200 and 250$ in a 10% sale. My opinion is that the illiterate buyers here have a sweet tooth for biding wars and crowd manias, this is the END my friends, Nolympics are 2 months away, prepare the lube, it is going to be tough…
Vancouver is different, yes true, but in a bad way, the downfall will be loud and probably will generate a lot of “i didn’t see it coming” victims…
You had the chance to get out in the last 3-6 months… i can see the smart money leaving this future ghost town
November 28th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
at least somewhere in this world, $2.4 million gets you a bona fide mansion.
———————-
There are many places in the world were you can buy a whole town for 2.4 mil US>
November 28th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Slav:
I go for dudes, not Asian ladyboys in short skirts and shorter tops. Seriously. I think we all know supra is your typical Asian wannabe, pretending he owns expensive cars and is a high roller. I’ve known loads of banana boys just like him. They live in the very edge of their meager paycheques. The only reason they can afford to lease their low end BMW is because they live in mummy and daddys basement.
I’m lucky enough to have my pick of modest, friendly boy next door types here in Halifax. Why would I want a high maintence piece of wannabe Richmond trash? You’d have to knock his teeth out just to get a decent blow job.
Surrrre you have a Ferrari supra just like you own multiple properties in van.
I think it’sore likely you are a low level rep in a surrey call center somewhere. Don’t be angry petal. Some day some big fat German sex tourist with a ladyboy fetish will sweep you off your feet and out of your parents basement.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
http://www.fraserinstitute.org...../7036.aspx
Picking winners and losers? Like diverting massive amounts of capital into the RE sector through CMHC to keep the housing bubble going? What do the gurus at the Fraser Institute have to say about that?
NOTHING
November 28th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
As we scrape to save up enough scratch for a $1 million fixer-upper in Vancouver, thought this quotation from ESPN was appropriate:
“Police said the world’s No. 1 golfer smashed his Cadillac into a fire hydrant and a tree near his $2.4 million mansion at 2:25 a.m. Friday.”
at least somewhere in this world, $2.4 million gets you a bona fide mansion.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Black Friday Sales: U.S. Retailers Report Strong Crowds
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....72668.html
November 28th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
ABU DHABI TO AID DUBAI
November 28th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Booms around the world are engineered by the greedy ruling pigs.
http://market-ticker.org/archi.....nanke.html
Denninger, on what bernanke should have known.
The facts are that Goldman Sachs, among others, was issuing securitizations with “mortgages” that, on dollar value:
72.21% were taken for cash-out refinances and 12.28% were to refinance existing loans.
Only 15.52% of the principal balance was taken out to BUY a house.
Of that 72.21% balance, the AVERAGE FICO of the person taking the cash-out refinance was 604 (!) – the lowest average of all categories. (that is special – people with severely-impaired credit attempting to keep their head above water by cashing out alleged “equity” in their homes at usurious interest rates!)
The vast majority of the loans had a lifetime maximum rate of 15% or higher, with 26% having a cap OVER 16%. This was in a time when “conventional” financing was at half that interest rate. If that’s not hard evidence of predatory behavior, what is?
46.85% of the principal balance was stated documentation. That is, NO verification of income or assets. In other words, these were “debt-pyramid” loans being taken out by borrowers to either cash out of their homes to fund their lifestyles, were utterly impossible to be paid as agreed, or both. A year later, FRBNY published a research paper on this.
November 28th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
78 X Mold city Says:
November 28th, 2009 at 10:35 am
@Supraboy: Im unclear on why you own a Ferrari when you said previously that you live with your parents?
——————
Because….. he is a lying troll. I thought most of us figured that out months ago?
November 28th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
ladagirl said “I can imagine..” not that she had a Ferrari just using her imagination.
“HSBC laid off ALL of their ‘Premium Wealth Managment’ staff yesterday.” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
November 28th, 2009 at 11:41 am
[...] November 2009 · Leave a Comment This from anonymous at vancouvercondo.info 27 Nov 2009 10:29 am [...]
November 28th, 2009 at 10:35 am
@Supraboy: Im unclear on why you own a Ferrari when you said previously that you live with your parents? Is it your preference to live with your parents and buy expensive cars rather than living on your own and settling for a BMW or something less expensive than a Ferrari? You certainly are an enigma.
November 28th, 2009 at 12:57 am
Perusing these boards over the last few weeks I get a palpable sense of the feverish sexual tension between scullie and supra. For the sake of the vci community, let’s fly supra over to Halifax and have him give scullie a freebie. I know that the lease payments on a Ferrari are a lot, Supraboy, but take one for the team. There’ll be enough European tourists this February for you to make it up on volume.
And scullie, don’t look a gift-supra in the mouth…or anywhere else for that matter. Just close your eyes and think of the Maritimes.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:32 pm
Great news guys,
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....5/GIStory/
November 27th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
@Supraboy:
“… It takes big BALLS to load up properties …”
This is so true! The only hitch is that in this day and age, there are limited employment opportunities for eunuchs.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
@scullboy:
“I like Vancouver the city when I lived there. It’s extremely pretty. It was people like you that drove me nuts.”
I’m glad there are more people like me in Vancouver. You deserve the beats. I can imagine you seeing me zoom down Robson with my Ferrari and you’re pissed like a phuck because you never had the balls to take risks in your life. Isn’t it too bad? If you had the smarts and balls to buy some properties a few years back, you wouldn’t be bitching like a chicken shit right now.
It’s people like you that makes me want to spit on you when I drive by with my ride. I’ll give you the finger and make you run after me afterwards.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
@Vomitron:
“Vancouver has condo pre-sales and the Olympics and non-stop anxiety about the falling standard of living in Vancouver.”
Non-stop anxiety? haha….you sound like you know what buyers are thinking, don’t you? If you ever talk to the buyers, you’ll know they’re loading up more properties. It takes big BALLS to load up properties, these people take risks in life while you sit there using words like “Anxiety” to label them. Obviously, you haven’t met a millionaire in your life before. You probably live in Port Moody or some dump in Langley.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
@scullboy:
Yada yada yada, put a sock to it and move on with your new life. Idiot cricket, go chirp elsewhere.
Do you NOT understand that you don’t belong here anymore? Go post on the hippies board.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Hey Supra:
Is it true you and Informer go at it doggie style so you can both post to this bog at the same time?
That’s what I heard….
November 27th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
A little meaningless anecdote: I’ve noticed in the market that I follow (north van houses under $700k) that lately there have been quite a few sales (I’m talking eight or ten over the last two weeks) and the sale prices seem to average 5%-10% below asking. Inventory is also down quite a bit. Normally I’d have about fifteen listing that fall under my search criteria, and right now there is only six. A trend perhaps, or just part of the pre-christmas seasonal slowdown?
skull: glad you mentioned about Supra’s repeated pond hockey “insult”. I find that confusing too.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Hey Informer:
Shouldn’t you be spraying coconut oil all over Supra’s nubile young buttocks?
November 27th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
@patriotz:
Lawyers and Doctors never give up unless patient meet his/her death and accused get locked in prison.
Patriotz and Drachen will never give up unless every single bear kiss their defeat in high definition.It’s good to read books for knowledge but copying unwanted paragraphs on the blogs does not change reality unless we apply them with circumastances of any perticular place.
On the side note:Presale contract holders from DUBAI who have left their deposit with developers and their cars on Dubai airport are currently smooking hookas on Georgia Street Vancouver after todays debacle Many of international investors include European,Britishers,and Americans have plan to move to Vancouver to take a rest from prolonged collapsed day after day everyday.They had plan to settle their life and family in “THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH”.
November 27th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
Gosh it appears I have fans, in Vancouver no less. Thanks guys! And here I was just posting obscenity filled rants into the ether.
Duru: There are a lot of IT jobs. If you do a search on Keane.ca, there are about 19 jobs in that company alone, or at leas there were till recently. A couple of people from Van and one from Toronto have moved here recently.
I think there are a lot of engineering jobs too, because of the large naval and offshore oil presences here. I’m not sure where to look for those, but there’s definitely around.
I’d like to thank Supra too. Supra, you truly are the voice of the Vancouver bull. You don’t get that high property values discourage innovators from moving there. It discourages younger people. It keeps people from “moving up” in life by starting families.
All you see are the dollar signs, and even the profits aren’t real. It’s sad really.
November 27th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Ignore Dave, He’s a troll.
it’s impossible for someone to be that obtuse and consistently wrong.
Ignore it and it will go away. Trolls enjoy gettinga rise out of people by pretending to be stupid.
November 27th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
That’s a moot issue really, because nominal house prices would fall more under increased consumer price inflation than under flat CPI. The reason is that an increase of even a couple of points in interest rates – which would be inevitable with increasing CPI – would clobber affordability. Particularly with flat nominal wages.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Plus 50% of inflation rate between that two year period.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:53 pm
@Dave:
Sure, works for me.
HPI below 484,211 by June 2011.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
I would like to thank Scullboy for adding levity and insight to this discussion and I would like to thank Supraboy for so valiantly representing the typical Vancouverite in the face of such incisive retorts. Honestly, without the two of you there would be nothing funny about Vancouver!
Having lived in Nova Scotia I agree that “Maritimers have a keen ability to identify and mock the absurd” and that intolerance of preening poseurs and ostentatious bullshitters is one of the endearing features of Haligonians. The typical Vancouverite would be roasted over an open fire in Halifax. I am fairly certain Vancouver is the world capital of bullshitters, liars, materialistic blowhards, overconfident imbeciles, scam artists and plain criminals. Vancouver is The Trailer Park Boys in a BMW on ecstasy and Red Bull. Vancouver is the pretty girl that gets hooked on crack cocaine and real estate speculation. Vancouver is so proud of herself yet she has the unmistakable stench of impending death.
Halifax has kitchen parties and pub crawls. Vancouver has condo pre-sales and the Olympics and non-stop anxiety about the falling standard of living in Vancouver.
The lineup to jump off the MacKay Bridge in Halifax is not nearly as long as the line to jump off the Lions Gate Bridge in Vancouver.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
@Drachen:
Sorry, my post was very cryptic and not well expressed.
My 50% compromise was in reference to using real vs nominal numbers. I suggested we meet half way between the two. Or in other words, we use 1/2 of the rate of inflation to correct the 2011 prices to the 2009 price bottom.
Let’s just use the Housing Price Index posted by realtylink.org. The most recent ‘bottom’ was $484,211. This number represents the median value of all types of properties in the GVRD, which I think is most representative.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
“I reckon that the proceeds of that sale and my severance should allow me to maintain the same monthly cash burn for about 9.5 years!”
Don’t forget to get long term disability insurance and life insurance (if you have dependents)…that includes high risk sports injuries.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Dropping city permit/inspection revenue forces Vancouver city council to axe Stanley Park petting zoon, QE Blodel Conservatory as well as reduce hours at libraries. Small taste of things to come. Where are graphs of Vancouver building permits?
Word-of-mouth has realtors saying lack of new development will cause prices to go up in 2010 because of reduced supply. Hmm and what about all those construction, agents, and office workers that will be unemployed?
http://www.francesbula.com/unc.....f-balance/
November 27th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
@Dave:
50% Real correction as in prices will be half of what they are now or prices will have dropped 50% of the way back down to our most recent low?
I’m not sure you understand the terms, let’s pick Detached just because it’s on top of the graph (feel free to choose a different marker if you like) I read the recent low at about 750K on the average price graph, I am saying that prices will fall below 750K in the next year and a half. And you, I presume, are saying that prices will not fall below 750K.
You’re right, over a year and a half real vs. nominal shouldn’t make any significant difference, so measure it however you will, I just wanted to be sure there was no room for argument but I suspect that, either way it’s not likely to be a close thing.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
@Drachen:
Sounds good, although I don’t agree with the real vs nominal part. Either way… two years of low inflation make that part of it a minor factor. Let’s meet half way on this issue and go with a 50% real correction.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Scullboy, i am a fan. No joking, i started to entertain the idea of moving to Halifax as well, you can get a 250.000 decent house close to downtown there(just check MLS). How is the job situation, i work in IT and my wife is in engineering AutoCAD.
Regarding the restaurants in Vancouver, half of them won’t pass the inspection in the Easter European country i am from, and that is bad! I have been to Montreal and the restaurants are way better in terms of food and service, i guess real french tradition really matters.
The level of stupidity in this city is amazing, if Dubai has fallen 50% in a year … do you hear the ticking bomb?
November 27th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
@Mr. Jones: Fundamentals will tell you what the historical long term trend will be but not the short term trend. Forecasting the short term trend is infinitely more complicated because it involves human behavior and expectations and is entangled with the short term economy. I think the arguments that most bears are making is simply this: all indicators are beyond reasonable norms by most measures (historical, financial, physical, etc) and there is nothing substantial supporting it, except loose credit and money with no home (no pun intended).
It isn’t an airtight argument and can’t be because if you could clearly show the market is going to tank shortly, it would have already started to tank because people would have anticipated it and taken action earlier. So it is essentially not possible to precisely predict it until it actually happens.
That doesn’t mean we can’t offer our own opinions and predictions, just that by the very nature of the problem, the predictions can never be airtight in reasoning and analysis.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
@Mr. Jones:
“If careful analysis of fundamentals should help us predict the RE market, why has it done such a dismal job in the past 10 years?”
Because fundamental analysis will tell you that a market WILL correct. No credible analyst will tell you that you can tell WHEN a market will correct through fundamental analysis.
Further, Warren Buffet invests exclusively on the basis of fundamental analysis, given his track record would you say the system works or not?
Further part 2: Are you proposing that there’s a better model to determine the value of real-estate? Because fundamental analysis has proven extremely accurate in the past, in over 400 years of recorded real-estate history it’s been accurate 100% of the time. Find me another system that you can apply to Los Angeles, Phoenix, Miami, London, Amsterdam and Tokyo at any point in their histories and it will give you the correct answer.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
@Dave:
“I am glad to see your agreement that my predictions have been good to this point. We can agree on the future once we get there.”
You’ve missed the point, again…
Your predictions of real-estate market movement are as accurate as my prediction that the sun will never set. I don’t see a “November 2009″ anywhere in your post. You made broad predictions about the future and your predictions do not diverge from my predictions up to this point.
I predicted a small fall followed by a recovery too, it’s the next year or two where we diverge so at this point we have Schroedinger’s cat in the box, until the box is opened we are both in a state of neither right nor wrong.
Until we’ve actually REACHED the future you cannot claim a greater accuracy than me and I believe my predictions have the bottom coming between Fall/Winter 2011 – sometime in 2013, which is a ways off yet. That is when right and wrong will be determined, until then you’re just blowing hot air if you’re claiming some check mark in the ‘win’ column (and even if you COULD claim a win it would still be 1 win to 4 losses for you).
If you’re about to complain that that’s too far away, we can look at 2010, I said it would be the year when we start to see significant losses (although I believe I hedged by saying give or take a year). So write this down, if property values have not fallen below our recent “bottom” (your word) by Spring 2011 I will give you the win on this one. Do you reciprocate? If prices fall below the recent trough over the next year and a half you’ll announce that you were wrong?
Of course, as always, I am talking REAL dollars, not your namby pamby NOMINAL dollars.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
@supraboy:
“Belongs to Vancouver?” That’s a funny phrase. It calls to mind an image of Vancouver as Jabba the Hutt, with you in the Princess Leia’s gold bikini, all chained up. I bet with your superior hair and makeup skills you look better then she did though, good for you.
I like Vancouver the city when I lived there. It’s extremely pretty. It was people like you that drove me nuts. Luckily for the rest of the country you’re way too delicate to venture past the Rockies to check out the country that has afforded you and your family such opportunity.
What’s with you and using hockey as a term of scorn? Pond hockey is awesome. I know playing sports with a bunch of muscular athletic Canadian men is probably a little intimidating to a delicate lotus blossom such as yourself. Maybe you should stick to playing mah-jong and squeeling with delight at every fat German in a BMW who cruises down Robson.
The restaurants here are awesome. They’re miles better then the rat-poo infested dim sum you’re eating in friggin’ Richmond. I was saying just today how impressed I am with the food. I invite you to expand your horizons and visit to find out for yourself. Just ask your Mummy and Daddy for permission.
Oh and you might want to leave the teensy little skirts and belly shirts at home, Petal. I’m sure Hans and Lars and the rest of your clients love the way they look while pouring “coconut milk” all over your delicate thighs, but I’m not sure they’d go over as well here.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
If careful analysis of fundamentals should help us predict the RE market, why has it done such a dismal job in the past 10 years? Yet during the past few years the bears on RE blogs like this one have been smugly confident in their analysis of an imminent crash while the market keeps rising. Maybe the RE market is more complex and has more unknowns than bears anticipated? Maybe there is something to learn?