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November 18th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Corruption rife in Canadastan. Fuck ups in health car prove the point.
http://www.vancouversun.com/he.....story.html
November 18th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
@Purp: But that didn’t happen in the US or anywhere else in the world.
Or are we different?
November 18th, 2009 at 11:54 am
You guys are looking at it all wrong. Bubbles don’t pop until the last bear has capitulated. Supraboy is providing a service by working hard to make that happen.
November 18th, 2009 at 11:42 am
@Supraboy: Please let us in on the secret. How is it that people can afford million dollar homes? I still don’t get it. I’m single and have a salary that in the high five-figures, which puts me up in the top 20% of households in Vancouver, yet I can’t afford* to purchase a SFH in East Vancouver. So, Supraboy, lead me to the holy grail.
*I suppose that I really can “afford” to “own” real estate, if I use Dave’s “affordability” criteria, or (more accurately) criterion.
November 18th, 2009 at 11:35 am
And considering the shape of our RE market, Supraboy seems to represent the majority – like it or not…
November 18th, 2009 at 11:28 am
For what it’s worth, I enjoy most of Supraboy’s posts. They’re a good counterbalance that keeps this place interesting.
November 18th, 2009 at 10:58 am
Supraboy put up or shut up. Where is your blog?
November 18th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Supraboy – that’s what’s so great about the net. You are totally able to start your own blog, with ease, on which you can give a detailed analysis of your case and encourage discussion (ala Mish). You could present cases, statistics, trend projections, etc. I’d quite like to see that.
November 18th, 2009 at 10:17 am
This board is so one-sided. When will you people crawl out of your own box and see why people can afford million dollar homes instead of screaming crash for the past 3-5 years?
November 18th, 2009 at 8:58 am
And as CREA economist Gregory Klump points out, when it comes to people losing their jobs it’s more of a glass-half-full scenario:
“If we have 10-per cent-unemployment, that means 90 per cent of people are employed,”
That’s a nice spin on the 10% unemployment, they sound just like my mortgage broker “It’s not a half million dollars of debt you’re taking on, it’s a half million dollars of equity you’re building”.
November 18th, 2009 at 7:20 am
“Boombust:
Yes, there is such a thing called a bottom. It is spelled with a “Z”
Okay okay. Zottom it is.
November 18th, 2009 at 6:38 am
Ah, here’s a good one. http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1367208/
November 18th, 2009 at 1:59 am
I have been watching this nightmare for so long I feel that once the bubble pops it will be anticlimatic. I have moved on literally and won’t be buying as I no longer live in Vancouver. If it wasn’t for family constantly prodding me to buy in a city I no longer live in I would not be following this.
Yes Vancouver you are in a bubble the fact that some banksters are admiting it is the fat lady singing. Look out below we are only a few months from the olympics once its over its too late specuvestors. Sell now before its too late.
November 18th, 2009 at 1:38 am
Vancouver running out of land?
http://tinyurl.com/y9avzx7
November 18th, 2009 at 1:38 am
@rubberduckie:
#7……..My biggest obstacle is I have a cat, and it seems 90% of rentals don’t allow pets. Should I apply anyways and hope they like me so much they’ll allow it? Should I lie?…….
===============================
Do like my partner and I did. We took the two cats to a taxidermist, did the deed and lo and behold, two critters that no longer shed, nor need feeding and that nasty litter box – a thing of the past. We can go on holidays for weeks with no worries or concerns!! No critters “hogging the bed” either!!!
The only disadvantage is the constant stare, the evil eye that seems to follow us everywhere and anywhere. But hey, we are getting used to it. And when we move, the bread box becomes an efficient cat carrier.
November 18th, 2009 at 12:24 am
ditto
November 18th, 2009 at 12:20 am
You know what would be a neat improvement to these boards? If you could auto-block postings from certain people (for those of us who sign-in).
November 17th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
I shouldn’t ruin all the dreams of the Bears here. You can all continue to dream about a market crash. As Martin Luther King says in his speech, “I Have a Dream”. This is one of the few places online where bears gather together with a dream, a dream of a property at fire sale prices, a dream where Vancouver rid itself of mainlanders from China, and a dream that one can own a BMW without being jealous at others.
Let property prices come down
Let mainlanders leave this town
Let the BMWs come to me without hard work
Let jealousy disappear
Let all the bears rise and take over west side homes without working
All bears, rise together and say, “I have a dream, a dream of a Vancouver where property prices crash because I cannot afford a house. Let prices crash because I missed out on the run, and let prices crash because I’m not smart enough to make money!”
November 17th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
@Boombust:
Yes, there is such a thing called a bottom. It is spelled with a “Z” and the word is ZERO.
November 17th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
@scullboy:
You’ve been complaining night and day, you missed out on the real estate run and now you’re a bitter loser. Life sucks doesn’t it. Why can’t you just accept reality? Instead, you come here with your jealousy and drivel hoping that everyone is on your side, which they are because they are obviously bearish and they also missed the run. You are so one-sided in your nonsense and using four letter words wouldn’t help your case. The city is better off without jealous people like you. There’s a reason why people can afford million dollar homes. They found a way to make money, if you can’t come up with your own method of making money, then too bad. Don’t go pointing fingers at BMWs and be pissed off about life. It is better for you to spend some time to ask yourself why you weren’t able to get a property, and ask yourself what you can do to change your mentality, perhaps then you can come up with your formula to make money.
November 17th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
@Bizznitch: Great post…and yes, when it happens, they will say: “who could have known???”
November 17th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
They never will. Harpoo will have a bit hand print on his forehead when he slaps himself and says “I had NO clue this was going to happen!”
“There’s your self perpetuating mechanism: newbie specuvesting landlord runs over his business obligations, makes the renter feel insecure, the renter jumps into a terrifyingly risky but looks-easier-to-live-in purchase situation.” « V Says:
November 17th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
[...] duru2000 on 17 Nov 2009 5:19 pm – [...]
November 17th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
@Bizznitch:
Yet somehow nobody will see it coming.
November 17th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
@Absinthe:
The no-cat landlords are really showing their amateur status I think. Our landlord is semi professional, he’s been doing it for 20 years but with just one house of 3 units and everyone in the building right now has a cat (I think he actually prefers tenants with cats). At the end of the day he’s happy because of the new rules that allow him to hold double the damage deposit for pets, which is really what all landlords should be looking at, it’s your insurance that you won’t get totally screwed by a tenant, the risk of having a cat pee on a few rugs is completely offset by the doubling of your insurance policy.
November 17th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1367165/
November 17th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
Warren Buffett
November 17th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
I’ll be honest, this is another reason I’m nervous about owning a structure in BC:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....quake.html
November 17th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
After a lifetime of stable renting, my family and I went through some serious bubble related instability with our rental last year. Now we’re paying just slightly more for more bedrooms and a yard, so it’s turned out for now- but I must admit for the first time getting grumpy about this bubble. The insanity in the housing market is making rental feel insecure, and I’m having trouble feeling settled. That, I don’t like.
But I realized there’s your self perpetuating mechanism: newbie specuvesting landlord runs all over his business obligations, makes the renter feel insecure, the renter jumps into a terrifyingly risky but looks-easier-to-live-in purchase situation.
And seriously – I’ve never seen so much housing aimed at the double income professionals with no kids no pets no roommates no parties and no smoking advertised. If you go on Craigslist, it’s almost pathetic; I want to grab the ads and shake sense into them. *Those renters are out of your league, dank moldy 2 bedroom. They don’t want you. Allow a frikkin’ cat, you morons.*
I’ll tell you, though, if the *banks* are admitting a bubble in housing, it’s huge. That’s a shocking thing for a bank to say.
November 17th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
My landlord( a realtor agent btw) is selling the house expecting the prices to go down in 2010. I was thinking to buy at the end of next year, but since Bank of Canada kept the party running with crazy low rates i will have to wait a little longer. So i took craigslist and there are plenty of places to rent in my range (1000$) right now, not like two years ago. I was playing with the idea of buying a place right now but i’m not going to do it, i rather have a 200K mortage at 7% than a 400K one at 3.5%. I can put a lot of money down but it doesn;t make any sense right now. Everywhere in the world (except Monaco but that’s a different market) the Real Estate took a 25-40% haircut in the last 2 years, but here…
i honestly expect a tsunami starting february 2010, once the olympic hype fades away there will be blood on the street again, 2008 was just the beginning, it is like that in every recession, this is called the bear trap rebound.
BTW, do you want a 800K house in east Vancouver? i can hook you up fast
November 17th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
@DaMann: Good strategy. There’s a lot of legwork in being a renter!
The path of least up-front resistance is buying. Eager Realtors drive you around to showings on your schedule. Property sellers scrub every inch and bake apple pies to try to get your interest!
It’s a vastly less glamorous experience when you’re renting.
I recently viewed 2 apartments for rent. Both places, completely independent of each other, had dirty underpants on the bedroom floors.
November 17th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
@rubberduckie:
I knwo how you feel about the pet situation. I just rented a sweet place on the westside, gorgeous roof top deck, view , everything. Current tenant said he would not allow pets. I called him, told him our situation and what we wanted to rent, he said I like you guys let’s do the paperwork. It was then that I told him we had a dog, he said no way, sorry no pets. I sweet talked him for a good 15 minutes, finally he caved. Having a good long term tenant who really wanted to look after the house like it was their own sold him. He wanted a few extra provisions in the lease but we were ok with that. I completely know your frustration with the pets, it’s what drove us to buy in early 2005, but we cashed out last year and it was still bad for finding rentals with pets. Bottom line, apply to any place you want, sell yourself to them, especially if you want long term and have excellent credit ( telling him you just sold your own place helps), then once they have their heart set on you ” oh by the way, I have a cat”. But don’t rent the place and lie about having a cat, that will just create stress on you and isn’t really fair.
It’s better than asking ” do you take pets” they will all say no, after the Olympics that will change, rental arket will be SATURATED.
November 17th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
@Boombust: “Silhouette” pre-sales started at 295K back in 2006, according to one article I read. All that risk for no profit. It’d consider renting there, though, at the right price.
“My dreams of buying cheap real estate are over. I don’t need to own, and current buyers are far crazier than I would have *ever* expected.” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
November 17th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
[...] November 2009 · Leave a Comment This from rp at vancouvercondo.info 17th Nov 2009 10:31 am [...]
November 17th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Supraboy,
I just received an e-mail alert from “Silhouette” in Burnaby.
Seems the units are “newly-priced at 299,900″
With things a flyin’ off the shelf, I’m surpired to see any reductions AT ALL!
November 17th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
@rp:
RP, people are being sold a dream by developers, agents and bankers but borrowing a nightmare. The only people getting wealthy from real estate at these insanely unaffordable prices are the three previously mentioned parties, as they take their profits at the top of the market. No dream of mine involves taking on 35 years of debt.
November 17th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
People have lost their fucking minds, especially in this province.
Let’s recap shall we??
Scotia says were in a bubble.
The crea says even 10% unemployment is ok because that still leaves 90% of us available to sell our lives for shelter.
The first poster here is a full on typical BC real estate zombie who assumes the current circumstace is a good idea.
I am so glad to be getting out of here. BC is so obviously past the point of no return. It’s like watching a bunch of rowdy, drunken frat boys piled into a BMW flying 100 mph down the wrong side of the road.
Fuck man, it’s such a shame. It’s such a pretty place.
November 17th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
@No Longer Looking: I don’t want to compromise my location. I’m comparing buying versus renting, not buying in a nice location versus renting in some godawful suburbs or rundown part of town.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:46 am
@domus: Yes, I notice the mysterious shrinking boxes of food at the Super Market
November 17th, 2009 at 11:44 am
@Vic: If people pay back, the creditors are the banks. if they don’t, it is the CMHC.
it is a win-win game for the banks: they only get the upside. I know it sounds crazy, but this is what is happening right now in Canada.
Information is power. The governments are selling this as a ‘necessary’ policy. It is a scam to keep this circus going (after all, aren’t they up for re-election…?).
November 17th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Inflationary effects of easy money:
http://tinyurl.com/yg65q3j
When central banks and governments tell you we have a deflation, do not believe them…
November 17th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Could this be another case of the “too big to fall”? Could the housing market be something that is so big that if it fell, then the government would bail us out?
The only way I can see this playing out…without complete self-implosion is gradual increase in interest rates (like 0.25 or 0.5% a year…over 10 years) and a slow steady decrease in housing prices (~5 to 10% a year) and modest salary increases (like 3% a year). Anything more drastic would cause complete mayhem. Of course…to pay for all this mess, my taxes should go back to year 2000 levels — or an extra 10% of my income. It was a bull market for 8 years…I see an 8 year decline to reality.
My question is…who are the creditors for the $1T mortgages? At 0.25% interest…that’s $2.5B in interest. If it goes back to 5%…that’s $50B of steady income for 25+ years! The other question is…how did they get $1T in the first place lol!
November 17th, 2009 at 11:40 am
“My biggest obstacle is I have a cat, and it seems 90% of rentals don’t allow pets. Should I apply anyways and hope they like me so much they’ll allow it? Should I lie?”
Maybe 90% in premium rentals, but the numbers are much better in the burbs. I think the numbers are getting better too.
If you are unsure about their policy, don’t bring up the cat at first. Do that after you’ve impressed them with your income, references, etc.
Lying is a common strategy for pet owners. Even if the lease species against pets, the landlord still has to make a case before the RTB. Also, some landlords barely pay attention to their place (downside is the place might be a dump). Personally, I opted not to lie.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:19 am
I wish there were something like an MLS, but for rentals. There are sites here and there, but not one single, clean, organized and up-to-date site that everyone uses.
I would be willing to pay an agent to help me find a nice long-term rental.
My biggest obstacle is I have a cat, and it seems 90% of rentals don’t allow pets. Should I apply anyways and hope they like me so much they’ll allow it? Should I lie?
If legislation passed tomorrow that landlords couldn’t discriminate against pet owners, do you think it would have an effect on real estate prices? I bought my first condo because some mean landlords kept slamming the phone down when I said I had a cat. That was in 2001, and it turned out my sweet kitty did me a favour! But now I’ve cashed out, still have the cat, and it’s as difficult as ever! At least I don’t have a dog. I think dog owners are worse off than cat owners.
I am rubbing my hands with anticipatory glee that the rental market will be flooded post-olympics and I can take my pick!
November 17th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Rp: 100, best analogy ever.
November 17th, 2009 at 10:46 am
It just isn’t funny anymore. It’s like if everyone started coming to work in chicken suits. First it’s funny, then it’s a bit disconcerting, then it’s hysterical, but now I am deeply concerned. The media is all chicken suit all the time. Everyone in a chicken suit insists they’re still having fun, but I don’t really believe it. Getting into the suits is getting harder and harder. More and more commitment is required. Some people glue chicken suits to their bodies for the next 35 years!
November 17th, 2009 at 10:31 am
#1 @Supraboy: “Anyone who’s knowledgeable and serious about the housing markets know it’s stupid to stand in front of a moving freight change.” That’s great advice, I’m going to stay the hell away from this one. My dreams of buying cheap real estate are over. I don’t need to own, and current buyers are far crazier than I would have *ever* expected. We just witnessed a worldwide financial crisis – the biggest in 80 years – and they are lining up to mortgage their lives away for a dream. Casting themselves onto the rocks is more like how I see it, because I don’t see how this could possibly be over. I save enough money to provide decent financial security for my family and will continue to do so.
I’m 30 years old. It would feel good to settle down, but instead I’m going to remain flexible about where I live and what job I take.
November 17th, 2009 at 10:29 am
I think this thing will carry on – forever, or until the average single family home tops a billion dollars and unemployment hits 100%. That’s what I learned at the Warsaw School of Economics and I’m sticking with it.
November 17th, 2009 at 10:10 am
“I don’t see a top yet. – Supraboy
Does that means there is such a thing as a bottom?
November 17th, 2009 at 9:51 am
When things are called a bubble, it really isn’t until you get a parabolic move. Expect the run to continue. Anyone who’s knowledgeable and serious about the housing markets know it’s stupid to stand in front of a moving freight change. Bernanke already mentioned that he will keep rates low. These ‘bubble’ talks are a bunch of jokers trying to shake people out so they can get in. Until a massive flood of buyers on condos and properties are seen, I don’t see a top yet.