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November 10th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
For me Vancouver is the best place on earth just because I do a lot of running and the access to some incredible city running routes and mountain trails is unbeatable. Not to speak of good running weather year round. But the fact that I can sell my condo and with the net profit buy a house somewhere else, let’s say southern Quebec, and have a cool $100k left in the bank, makes be believe that the best place on earth has a steep price to it. Too steep really.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
There are still many jobs to be filled in the high-tech sector locally. Pixar (at this time probably the best known animation studio in the world) is opening a studio here this winter with Digital Domain (a major U.S. based visual effects house) following closely on it’s heels. There are many other, smaller, CGI companies setting up shop to take advantage of all the film and television work available in this city and the locally established companies seem to be expanding all the time. I work in the animation industry (which for the purposes of this discussion can include Television, Film and video games) and it is my impression, overall, that the outlook for the industry in Vancouver is quite positive. EA has perhaps fallen prey to the bloated, top-heavy, innovation-crushing corporate syndrome that governments are affected by – a relic of the good ol’ days. EA was (and is) a major employer in the high-tech arena in Vancouver to be sure, but I’d argue that these job losses will be absorbed by the influx of film and television CGI-centric work that is coming to town. I think EA is just cleaning house, blowing off some of the dead weight, and this purge is probably long overdue. Vancouver remains a major player in the world of CGI, for now and in the foreseeable future.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Are you suggesting that people on this board aren’t trying to influence each other?
Would you put up with a coworker who constantly whine that their job sucks? Are they so passive that they find a better opportunity elsewhere? Same thing here.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
@Warren:
“Wealthy foreigners” might not have pumped our real estate market, but “wealthy immigrants” definitely have. Developers know the market — try finding a show home with only English-speaking salespeople.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
@california: Are you suggesting that there are those on this forum who think that they have the power to influence the direction of the housing market by the quality and quantity of their posts on this forum?
We all know the dynamics of the Vancouver real estate market and the forces keeping (temporarily) prices at current levels. Once those dynamics change–and they will-then prices will drop, independent of how many posts I make on this site, or how many relatives/friends I tell that real estate here is overpriced.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
The herd mentality on this forum that Vancouver isn’t the “best place on earth” plays out like a drawn out Dear John letter. Please, go find the real best place on earth (in Nova Scotia or where-ever the hell you think is so great) and then populate this forum with “told you so’s”. I *promise* you that it will be more gratifying (and faster) than trying to convince people not to buy here in order to drive down prices.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Rust said “It’s been an eye opener. Right now family and work keeps me here, but prices would have to drop DRAMATICALY for me to even consider buying here. It’s become clear to me lately that I’m just not interested in living in Vancouver long term.”
Just in case someone accuses you of being a bitter renter that missed the boat I will tell you that as a homeowner, bought early 2003 before the big run up of RE, I came to the same conclusion so we decided to sell our place, completion Nov. 30.
In other words while it makes no sense for you to buy, it makes no sense for me to own either. And that’s regardless of the fact that my mortgage pmt and my purchase price were relatively low. So unless price of housing comes down drastically and/or salary increase drastically, it’s by, by Vancouver.
“Even though I don’t believe it logically, it seems like the ‘best place on earth’-hype has actually gotten to me subconsciously.” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
[...] influenced by the herd, and decides they’re better off elsewhere. This striking story from Rust at vancouvercondo.info 10th Nov 2009 at 8:56 am [...]
“The real story is how many jobs in hi-tech did this real estate boom kill? How many startups never bothered?” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
[...] from other ted at vancouvercondo.info 9th Nov 2009 11:11 pm [...]
November 10th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
BCs top 100 companies as profiled by BC business.
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca/bcb/top100
November 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Well it’s the standard argument that “wealthy foreigners” will keep our RE at sky-high prices. My argument is that they haven’t materially changed the price on the way up, and won’t on the way down either. Somebody who floats in and dumps a pile of money on condos would be that “rich foreigner”. Tracking it seems to be difficult of course.
November 10th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
@Warren:
What’s the definition of “out-of-province”?
If someone moves here from China and buys 5 condos, is he considered a local buyer? Even if he has now moved back to China? If he declares a mailing address or residence in BC, is he a local?
November 10th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Not sure where I’m going with this, but here are some tidbits that I found out this last week.
In California, things are not as dire as they sound. Growing cities are still growing, people still having kids and some malls in San Jose are packed – it all depends on management. The unemployed are getting interviews, and there’s very little incentive to find a job. A gap in the resume doesn’t really look that bad, and unemployment insurance makes them $800 biweekly (in Arizona, it’s more like $200-300 biweekly). My unemployed friend says that she’s actually saving money and due to Obama’s extension, she can ride this through June 2010 at least. The only reason she’s interviewing is because she’s “bored of the traveling and art classes.”
That said, housing prices are pretty steady. You can buy a starter around 1000 s.f. SFD from $150k.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
I am unemployed. Have been since November 2008.
We should keep a running total of how many times the word “UNEXPECTED” appears in MSM reports pertaining to the economy over the next 12 months.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
@Warren: Warren, which forum would that be?
November 10th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Russia takes a page out of Canadas playbook and begins to short thier own currency.
http://www.gata.org/node/8007
November 10th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
We hit an open house last Saturday on the westside. Local caucasian woman was the only other person we saw.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
@Warren:
If you can find the Landcorp ( sp?) data, it stated that 90% ish of Vancouver RE was bought and sold by locals. I read it a few months ago but don’t know where the data is now. Anyone know where this data is?
November 10th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Good idea but it doesn’t work against internet tough guys.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Warren, why don’t you just go to some open houses on the westside and tell everybody what type of people are going to these. That will be your prove, right there.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
I’m arguing with a few people about the myth of foreign buyers in another forum. Can somebody help back me up that this is in fact a myth? I need some links or details. Clearly Vancouver doesn’t have the median income to support these prices for much longer.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Supraboy keep up your good work to rebuke those insane traitors of Vancouver.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Who posting here is jobless? All these job cut announcements are bs as far as I’m concerned. I have a job, you have a job, we keep on hauling in cash, nothing has changed aside from the fact we come onto this site and spew nonsense and become more unproductive.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:32 am
“Just to be straight up. The official US unemployment rate is 10.2%. When discouraged workers are added, it rises to 17.5%, the worst number since the 1930s. In states where there was a housing boom three years ago (California, Florida, Arizona), this number has soared to an average of 20% – just slightly less than during the Great Depression. There’s now an equal number in key manufacturing states (Michigan, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina).
As vultures who come to nest here often remind us, real estate values in those places have crashed by between 50% and 70%, and show no signs of revival. The situation is so dire that on Friday, hours after the latest numbers (which were just half as bad as in Canada) were released, Obama signed into law 20 addition weeks of unemployment benefits for the desperate. There are 16 million jobless Americans now, 7 million of them out of work in the last year.
But this is about Canada. Our jobless rate is 8.6%, up a couple of points, and likely on its way to 9% or so. In Canada, unlike the States, we don’t count people who are discouraged, who have left the workforce, who’ve given up, whose EI benefits have run out, who are underemployed or were forced out of full-time jobs and into part-time employment. Therefore, we can’t quite know the amount of human capital in Canada being wasted.
But we do know this: 27,500 people last month went from working for somebody else to being ‘self-employed.’ That means they were not counted as part of the out-of-work gang. It likely also means they had little if any income (start-ups being what they are). And it actually means we lost more than 70,000 existing jobs during the month. That’s three and a half times worse than the States.”
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
November 10th, 2009 at 11:08 am
@patriotzed (#17)
Right on! You can count the high tech companies in this town with any degree of maturity on one hand, plus a couple of fingers – otherwise it is a plethora of small, immature companies – typically in survivial mode – looking for an exit via buy out from larger U.S. based company. I’ve been in high tech in this town for over 20 years and seen it happen many many times.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Theres no slow down or layoffs in the excessive and bloated bureaucracy, There is no accountability and the salaries skew the entire market in many areas. All these hardwired union and governemnt jobs in BC suck fat straight off the taxpayer. So if theres no new text books in the classroom look no further than the fat wage and pension perks. If there is no hospital services look no further than the grotesque compensation of the civil service. 85% of the entire Provincial budget goes out in wages and benefits does anyone wonder how this has happened?
http://www.theprovince.com/bus.....story.html
When price inflation hits and these bloated parasites can’t make the payments anymore where do they look. Thats right, they go on strike and hold the rest of us for ransom. Or they just grant themselves more compensation ‘because they are competing with the private sector for the best talent’ Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
I would be interested to know how the average salary stacks up against the ‘other’ category when all the union, civil service, and public parasites are stripped out. What are wages in the private sector , not the average with all the pork rolled in.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:41 am
nonymouse – exactly. That is the true cost of a speculative bubble in non-productive assets. And – as has been said above – the city and region will pay a long-term price for it.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:13 am
The term “JOBLESS RECOVERY” is a fabrication and lie from the MSM and government. For without jobs, you just simply cannot have any kind of a recovery.
Hey Franco……
Can you see China from Beach Avenue ???
November 10th, 2009 at 10:00 am
What concerns me is that Realestate seems to have become a black hole sucking up all the credit and cash flow from the city. Money and resources that could have been used elsewhere have been absorbed by a bubble leaving less and less money to support local business and innovation. It’s like it’s become the only game in town.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Industrial land prices fall in Vancouver
The value of industrial land in Metro Vancouver decreased by as much 30 per cent in the last year as speculators desperately unloaded land bought near the market’s peak into a market with little demand.
The market saw prices double between 2003 and 2008, with prices reaching $600,000 an acre in Abbotsford and as much as $4-million an acre in Vancouver.
Meanwhile, the region’s industrial vacancy rate increased to 4.4 per cent in the third quarter, up from 3.2 per cent in the spring.
http://tinyurl.com/ylp8t5r
November 10th, 2009 at 8:56 am
@patriotzed: I’ve been doing more travel for work, and the thing that always suprised me is how nice other cities are. Even though I don’t believe it logically it seems like the “best place on earth” hype has actually gotten to me subconciously. I find myself almost suprised when I notice things that are far more appealing about other cities with lower cost of living.
It’s been an eye opener. Right now family and work keeps me here, but prices would have to drop DRAMATICALY for me to even consider buying here. It’s become clear to me lately that I’m just not interested in living in Vancouver long term.
November 10th, 2009 at 7:55 am
“You can always count on management to preserve its own jobs first…”
Just as you can always count on multinationals to protest their own home bases when layoffs begin.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:55 am
@Wreckonomics:
They also have the National Capital Commission which is essentially their equivalent of our Agricultural Land Reserve.
What’s different is that Ottawa doesn’t have the incredible conceit of Vancouver that it’s the greatest city on the planet and however much you pay for your house or condo some fool will come around and pay you more. It’s just a place to live and work.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:49 am
@other ted:
Bingo. For a metro to be a growth centre for high tech, it must be attractive to professional families. Vancouver was in the 80′s and 90′s and that’s the major reason why capital and workers were attracted here for the many startups. Make the metro unnatractive, and you kill high tech. Housing in Seattle is a good deal cheaper than in Vancouver, and it is and has always been a major high tech hub – why on earth would anyone locate here instead of there except to employ a few peons who couldn’t get H1B’s. Inside Canada look at Ottawa or Waterloo which are even cheaper.
I took a high-tech management program from SFU back in the late 80′s when it looked like Vancouver had a real future in high tech. Our focus companies were Glenayre and Creo. Say no more.
If housing gets down to and stays at 80′s real prices high tech may get going again, but it looks like we’ve slipped back 20 years or more. Thanks for the “Golden Decade”, Gordo.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:02 am
On a slightly more serious note, we’re going to need a lot of debt counselors, debt collectors, repo men, auditors, etc, to take care of the financial mess. There should be also plenty of work for plumbers and tradespeople who focus on repairs, due to all the new housing stock is starting to enter the maintenance cycle. Possibly there will be demand for mechanics as people tend to get more things fixed. I would avoid IT and technical fields, since those are largely viewed as “cost centers” in business. They are the first to suffer from a lack of business investment. You can always count on management to preserve its own jobs first, followed by a period of listless activity and decline, at which point consulting becomes a good gig if you have the contacts. Assuming you have some other means of support, now is the best time for an entrepreneur to begin R&D. It’s also a good time to make new contacts, as you can meet unemployed people at the coffee shop, etc.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:30 am
Vancouver’s original “grow”th industry is still humming along. Aside from that, prostitution, maybe?
November 10th, 2009 at 1:24 am
Oh shut the fuck up Franco/Spammoboy/whatever
November 10th, 2009 at 1:19 am
So what,with Chinese majority in Van keep buying houses, Van Real Estate will be a bonaza for the yrs to come.
Vancouver is a place blessed by its close location to China
November 10th, 2009 at 1:06 am
Fixed rate 5 year which is 4-5% according to google. So if there are lots of these households, exactly what are they doing for a living? Considering the median family income (2005 georgia straight) is about 50k/year, the above mortgage payment consumes about 50% of the net income.
Who is buying and what do they do for a living?
November 10th, 2009 at 12:56 am
Matt, yes there are lots. Whether they have 165k as a downpayment is another question.
The bigger question is whether they can keep paying the monthly when rates go back up to 6 or 7.
BTW, waht “current rate” are you using? The floating or fixed rate? 25/30/35 years?
November 10th, 2009 at 12:54 am
Back-of-the-napkin math says that someone buying a 550k CAD house with 30% downpayment is going to be paying around 1300-1500 CAD a month in mortgage payments at current interest rates. Are there that many households in Vancouver that can support this sort of expenditure? Especially in the face increasing unemployment?
November 10th, 2009 at 12:46 am
“I’m baffled as to what actually the economic driver is”
========
Even cheaper credit.
Weed has been ehre for decades, the housing boom hasn’t.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:38 am
As the Vancouver real estate market has performed so well in the past year, I’m baffled as to what actually the economic driver is. Is it the underground economy? The Guardian reported several years back that weed is the second biggest export in BC at 7 billion USD a year. All of that money has to go somewhere.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
“THE WORLD IS FLAT” by Thomas L Friedman.
EA will soon close. India has so many highly qualified people with University degrees, all the jobs we thought as safe from the unskilled 3rd world will be gone. They are educated and will take all our jobs.
Canada better start learning how to produce products that the world will want instead of just our resources.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
@other ted: There are more government jobs in Ottawa and their house prices didn’t go crazy like ours.
I think you have a good point that this bubble has poisoned our economy long term – if you’re going to startup a new venture, there are many better places to do it.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:11 pm
I think the problem is there are too many subsidized jobs in vancouver. Government, crown corporations, ulitilies, construction funded by govnerments for infrustructure. These cuts won’t make a difference to the mentality of most since they affect the minority. The minority that probalby isn’t already drinking the coolaid. This bubble will collapse under its own weight, not job cuts. It would have collapsed a long time ago. Lets face it Kodak Canada is what is left of Creo. The job cuts were 2002 and 2003. There is almost nothing left there. I don’t think I know anyone left working there maybe a few. It won’t make a difference. The real story is how many jobs in hi tech did this real estate boom kill. How many startups never bothered. How many real jobs vanished or were never created.
The damage is done. Seriously crash or no crash I can’t see myself moving back to Vancouver in decades from now.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Exactly, no job seems to be safe these days. I have quite a few friends who work in government (mostly federal) in their 30s who have always had the attitude that “I have a job for life”. I’m starting to doubt that this is true. I once knew a guy who worked at EA for about a year, and seemed very confident that he would never lose his job and if he did, no problem, another IT company would snap him up ASAP! Perhaps not so true these days…
Unfortunately I think those of us in our 30s who have never been through a recession in our working lives are in for a rude awakening. Evidenced by recent new home buyers snapping up homes for $600k with 10% down, not a care in the world or a thought of a job loss. Yes, rude awakening to come.
November 9th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
@pricedoutfornow: are you aware of the budget freezes and cuts in education and health care? Collective agreements are coming due next year for teachers and the health care unions aren’t far behind. Already unions are telling their members that meager raises are the best they can hope for.
City budgets have already been hit with a reduction in building permits and they’re talking about extending user fees, parking hours, and a sizable increase in property taxes when incomes are dropping. Good luck getting elected next time.
Pain in the private sector eventually trickles down to the public sector. Based on these recent tech layoffs, there is more pain to come.
November 9th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Yes, someone please tell me what healthy industries are left in Vancouver. I’m in a position where I visit manufacturing companies and I haven’t seen one yet where management is telling me that things are really turning around, it’s still all doom and gloom (or some who are optimistic that things WILL pick up, though they haven’t yet) So please…enlighten us all, if it’s not manufacturing, I guess IT isn’t so hot, government jobs are pretty stable (but realistically, you do need some sort of healthy tax base to support those jobs) The only thing that seems to be booming is…real estate!!! Well, I think we’re in our final stretch, all fools aboard, the train’s about to leave the station for the big crash!
November 9th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
The government should be happy. Severance is taxed at the marginal rate.