The Jobless Recovery
Since their recent lows, both the Vancouver housing market and global equity markets have had a surprising rise. This despite fewer and fewer people actually drawing a paycheque. The unemployment rate in the US recently surpassed 10%, and is much higher if you count the people that have given up looking for work or run out of unemployment benefits.
In Canada it’s a similar story with a bit of a lag. In October alone Canada ‘unexpectedly’ lost 43,200 jobs and today saw news of EA cutting 1,500 jobs with a ’significant’ number of them from their Burnaby campus. Other cuts were announced by Kodak which is shifting development work from Victoria and Burnaby to Israel. The latest round of cuts leaves them with roughly 500 employees in BC, down from 1,265 in July 2008.
According to CIBC the quality of jobs left not just in BC, but all across Canada has taken a nosedive in the last 6 months.
There was a time when Vancouver fancied itself a bit of a high-tech economy, with a number of video game studios providing good paying jobs locally. The recent round of cuts takes some of the shine off that image. Are there growth industries left in Vancouver that will offer decent incomes to support our high cost of housing?
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nonymouse Says:
November 9th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
The government should be happy. Severance is taxed at the marginal rate.
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pricedoutfornow Says:
November 9th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Yes, someone please tell me what healthy industries are left in Vancouver. I’m in a position where I visit manufacturing companies and I haven’t seen one yet where management is telling me that things are really turning around, it’s still all doom and gloom (or some who are optimistic that things WILL pick up, though they haven’t yet) So please…enlighten us all, if it’s not manufacturing, I guess IT isn’t so hot, government jobs are pretty stable (but realistically, you do need some sort of healthy tax base to support those jobs) The only thing that seems to be booming is…real estate!!! Well, I think we’re in our final stretch, all fools aboard, the train’s about to leave the station for the big crash!
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jesse Says:
November 9th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
@pricedoutfornow: are you aware of the budget freezes and cuts in education and health care? Collective agreements are coming due next year for teachers and the health care unions aren’t far behind. Already unions are telling their members that meager raises are the best they can hope for.
City budgets have already been hit with a reduction in building permits and they’re talking about extending user fees, parking hours, and a sizable increase in property taxes when incomes are dropping. Good luck getting elected next time.
Pain in the private sector eventually trickles down to the public sector. Based on these recent tech layoffs, there is more pain to come.
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pricedoutfornow Says:
November 9th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Exactly, no job seems to be safe these days. I have quite a few friends who work in government (mostly federal) in their 30s who have always had the attitude that “I have a job for life”. I’m starting to doubt that this is true. I once knew a guy who worked at EA for about a year, and seemed very confident that he would never lose his job and if he did, no problem, another IT company would snap him up ASAP! Perhaps not so true these days…
Unfortunately I think those of us in our 30s who have never been through a recession in our working lives are in for a rude awakening. Evidenced by recent new home buyers snapping up homes for $600k with 10% down, not a care in the world or a thought of a job loss. Yes, rude awakening to come.
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other ted Says:
November 9th, 2009 at 11:11 pm
I think the problem is there are too many subsidized jobs in vancouver. Government, crown corporations, ulitilies, construction funded by govnerments for infrustructure. These cuts won’t make a difference to the mentality of most since they affect the minority. The minority that probalby isn’t already drinking the coolaid. This bubble will collapse under its own weight, not job cuts. It would have collapsed a long time ago. Lets face it Kodak Canada is what is left of Creo. The job cuts were 2002 and 2003. There is almost nothing left there. I don’t think I know anyone left working there maybe a few. It won’t make a difference. The real story is how many jobs in hi tech did this real estate boom kill. How many startups never bothered. How many real jobs vanished or were never created.
The damage is done. Seriously crash or no crash I can’t see myself moving back to Vancouver in decades from now.
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Wreckonomics Says:
November 9th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
@other ted: There are more government jobs in Ottawa and their house prices didn’t go crazy like ours.
I think you have a good point that this bubble has poisoned our economy long term – if you’re going to startup a new venture, there are many better places to do it.
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Edwin Says:
November 9th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
“THE WORLD IS FLAT” by Thomas L Friedman.
EA will soon close. India has so many highly qualified people with University degrees, all the jobs we thought as safe from the unskilled 3rd world will be gone. They are educated and will take all our jobs.
Canada better start learning how to produce products that the world will want instead of just our resources.
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Matt Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 12:38 am
As the Vancouver real estate market has performed so well in the past year, I’m baffled as to what actually the economic driver is. Is it the underground economy? The Guardian reported several years back that weed is the second biggest export in BC at 7 billion USD a year. All of that money has to go somewhere.
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logic Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 12:46 am
“I’m baffled as to what actually the economic driver is”
========
Even cheaper credit.
Weed has been ehre for decades, the housing boom hasn’t.
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Matt Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 12:54 am
Back-of-the-napkin math says that someone buying a 550k CAD house with 30% downpayment is going to be paying around 1300-1500 CAD a month in mortgage payments at current interest rates. Are there that many households in Vancouver that can support this sort of expenditure? Especially in the face increasing unemployment?
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logic Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 12:56 am
Matt, yes there are lots. Whether they have 165k as a downpayment is another question.
The bigger question is whether they can keep paying the monthly when rates go back up to 6 or 7.
BTW, waht “current rate” are you using? The floating or fixed rate? 25/30/35 years?
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Matt Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 1:06 am
Fixed rate 5 year which is 4-5% according to google. So if there are lots of these households, exactly what are they doing for a living? Considering the median family income (2005 georgia straight) is about 50k/year, the above mortgage payment consumes about 50% of the net income.
Who is buying and what do they do for a living?
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Franco Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 1:19 am
So what,with Chinese majority in Van keep buying houses, Van Real Estate will be a bonaza for the yrs to come.
Vancouver is a place blessed by its close location to China
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logic Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 1:24 am
Oh shut the fuck up Franco/Spammoboy/whatever
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rp Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 1:30 am
Vancouver’s original “grow”th industry is still humming along. Aside from that, prostitution, maybe?
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rp Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 2:02 am
On a slightly more serious note, we’re going to need a lot of debt counselors, debt collectors, repo men, auditors, etc, to take care of the financial mess. There should be also plenty of work for plumbers and tradespeople who focus on repairs, due to all the new housing stock is starting to enter the maintenance cycle. Possibly there will be demand for mechanics as people tend to get more things fixed. I would avoid IT and technical fields, since those are largely viewed as “cost centers” in business. They are the first to suffer from a lack of business investment. You can always count on management to preserve its own jobs first, followed by a period of listless activity and decline, at which point consulting becomes a good gig if you have the contacts. Assuming you have some other means of support, now is the best time for an entrepreneur to begin R&D. It’s also a good time to make new contacts, as you can meet unemployed people at the coffee shop, etc.
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patriotzed Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:49 am
@other ted:
Bingo. For a metro to be a growth centre for high tech, it must be attractive to professional families. Vancouver was in the 80’s and 90’s and that’s the major reason why capital and workers were attracted here for the many startups. Make the metro unnatractive, and you kill high tech. Housing in Seattle is a good deal cheaper than in Vancouver, and it is and has always been a major high tech hub – why on earth would anyone locate here instead of there except to employ a few peons who couldn’t get H1B’s. Inside Canada look at Ottawa or Waterloo which are even cheaper.
I took a high-tech management program from SFU back in the late 80’s when it looked like Vancouver had a real future in high tech. Our focus companies were Glenayre and Creo. Say no more.
If housing gets down to and stays at 80’s real prices high tech may get going again, but it looks like we’ve slipped back 20 years or more. Thanks for the “Golden Decade”, Gordo.
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patriotzed Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:55 am
@Wreckonomics:
They also have the National Capital Commission which is essentially their equivalent of our Agricultural Land Reserve.
What’s different is that Ottawa doesn’t have the incredible conceit of Vancouver that it’s the greatest city on the planet and however much you pay for your house or condo some fool will come around and pay you more. It’s just a place to live and work.
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Boombust Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 7:55 am
“You can always count on management to preserve its own jobs first…”
Just as you can always count on multinationals to protest their own home bases when layoffs begin.
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Rust Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 8:56 am
@patriotzed: I’ve been doing more travel for work, and the thing that always suprised me is how nice other cities are. Even though I don’t believe it logically it seems like the “best place on earth” hype has actually gotten to me subconciously. I find myself almost suprised when I notice things that are far more appealing about other cities with lower cost of living.
It’s been an eye opener. Right now family and work keeps me here, but prices would have to drop DRAMATICALY for me to even consider buying here. It’s become clear to me lately that I’m just not interested in living in Vancouver long term.
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blueskies Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Industrial land prices fall in Vancouver
The value of industrial land in Metro Vancouver decreased by as much 30 per cent in the last year as speculators desperately unloaded land bought near the market’s peak into a market with little demand.
The market saw prices double between 2003 and 2008, with prices reaching $600,000 an acre in Abbotsford and as much as $4-million an acre in Vancouver.
Meanwhile, the region’s industrial vacancy rate increased to 4.4 per cent in the third quarter, up from 3.2 per cent in the spring.
http://tinyurl.com/ylp8t5r
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nonymouse Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 10:00 am
What concerns me is that Realestate seems to have become a black hole sucking up all the credit and cash flow from the city. Money and resources that could have been used elsewhere have been absorbed by a bubble leaving less and less money to support local business and innovation. It’s like it’s become the only game in town.
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Carioca Canuck Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 10:13 am
The term “JOBLESS RECOVERY” is a fabrication and lie from the MSM and government. For without jobs, you just simply cannot have any kind of a recovery.
Hey Franco……
Can you see China from Beach Avenue ???
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logic Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 10:41 am
nonymouse – exactly. That is the true cost of a speculative bubble in non-productive assets. And – as has been said above – the city and region will pay a long-term price for it.
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realpaul Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Theres no slow down or layoffs in the excessive and bloated bureaucracy, There is no accountability and the salaries skew the entire market in many areas. All these hardwired union and governemnt jobs in BC suck fat straight off the taxpayer. So if theres no new text books in the classroom look no further than the fat wage and pension perks. If there is no hospital services look no further than the grotesque compensation of the civil service. 85% of the entire Provincial budget goes out in wages and benefits does anyone wonder how this has happened?
http://www.theprovince.com/bus.....story.html
When price inflation hits and these bloated parasites can’t make the payments anymore where do they look. Thats right, they go on strike and hold the rest of us for ransom. Or they just grant themselves more compensation ‘because they are competing with the private sector for the best talent’ Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
I would be interested to know how the average salary stacks up against the ‘other’ category when all the union, civil service, and public parasites are stripped out. What are wages in the private sector , not the average with all the pork rolled in.
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Re-diculous Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 11:08 am
@patriotzed (#17)
Right on! You can count the high tech companies in this town with any degree of maturity on one hand, plus a couple of fingers – otherwise it is a plethora of small, immature companies – typically in survivial mode – looking for an exit via buy out from larger U.S. based company. I’ve been in high tech in this town for over 20 years and seen it happen many many times.
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fromgarthsblog Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 11:32 am
“Just to be straight up. The official US unemployment rate is 10.2%. When discouraged workers are added, it rises to 17.5%, the worst number since the 1930s. In states where there was a housing boom three years ago (California, Florida, Arizona), this number has soared to an average of 20% – just slightly less than during the Great Depression. There’s now an equal number in key manufacturing states (Michigan, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina).
As vultures who come to nest here often remind us, real estate values in those places have crashed by between 50% and 70%, and show no signs of revival. The situation is so dire that on Friday, hours after the latest numbers (which were just half as bad as in Canada) were released, Obama signed into law 20 addition weeks of unemployment benefits for the desperate. There are 16 million jobless Americans now, 7 million of them out of work in the last year.
But this is about Canada. Our jobless rate is 8.6%, up a couple of points, and likely on its way to 9% or so. In Canada, unlike the States, we don’t count people who are discouraged, who have left the workforce, who’ve given up, whose EI benefits have run out, who are underemployed or were forced out of full-time jobs and into part-time employment. Therefore, we can’t quite know the amount of human capital in Canada being wasted.
But we do know this: 27,500 people last month went from working for somebody else to being ‘self-employed.’ That means they were not counted as part of the out-of-work gang. It likely also means they had little if any income (start-ups being what they are). And it actually means we lost more than 70,000 existing jobs during the month. That’s three and a half times worse than the States.”
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
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Supraboy Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Who posting here is jobless? All these job cut announcements are bs as far as I’m concerned. I have a job, you have a job, we keep on hauling in cash, nothing has changed aside from the fact we come onto this site and spew nonsense and become more unproductive.
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Franco Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Supraboy keep up your good work to rebuke those insane traitors of Vancouver.
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Warren Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
I’m arguing with a few people about the myth of foreign buyers in another forum. Can somebody help back me up that this is in fact a myth? I need some links or details. Clearly Vancouver doesn’t have the median income to support these prices for much longer.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Warren, why don’t you just go to some open houses on the westside and tell everybody what type of people are going to these. That will be your prove, right there.
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Warren Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Good idea but it doesn’t work against internet tough guys.
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DaMann Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
@Warren:
If you can find the Landcorp ( sp?) data, it stated that 90% ish of Vancouver RE was bought and sold by locals. I read it a few months ago but don’t know where the data is now. Anyone know where this data is?
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mk-kids Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
We hit an open house last Saturday on the westside. Local caucasian woman was the only other person we saw.
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whatmanipulation? Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Russia takes a page out of Canadas playbook and begins to short thier own currency.
http://www.gata.org/node/8007
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
@Warren: Warren, which forum would that be?
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Carioca Canuck Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
I am unemployed. Have been since November 2008.
We should keep a running total of how many times the word “UNEXPECTED” appears in MSM reports pertaining to the economy over the next 12 months.
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california Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Not sure where I’m going with this, but here are some tidbits that I found out this last week.
In California, things are not as dire as they sound. Growing cities are still growing, people still having kids and some malls in San Jose are packed – it all depends on management. The unemployed are getting interviews, and there’s very little incentive to find a job. A gap in the resume doesn’t really look that bad, and unemployment insurance makes them $800 biweekly (in Arizona, it’s more like $200-300 biweekly). My unemployed friend says that she’s actually saving money and due to Obama’s extension, she can ride this through June 2010 at least. The only reason she’s interviewing is because she’s “bored of the traveling and art classes.”
That said, housing prices are pretty steady. You can buy a starter around 1000 s.f. SFD from $150k.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
@Warren:
What’s the definition of “out-of-province”?
If someone moves here from China and buys 5 condos, is he considered a local buyer? Even if he has now moved back to China? If he declares a mailing address or residence in BC, is he a local?
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Warren Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Well it’s the standard argument that “wealthy foreigners” will keep our RE at sky-high prices. My argument is that they haven’t materially changed the price on the way up, and won’t on the way down either. Somebody who floats in and dumps a pile of money on condos would be that “rich foreigner”. Tracking it seems to be difficult of course.
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nonymouse Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
BCs top 100 companies as profiled by BC business.
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca/bcb/top100
42 X “The real story is how many jobs in hi-tech did this real estate boom kill? How many startups never bothered?” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
[...] from other ted at vancouvercondo.info 9th Nov 2009 11:11 pm [...]
43 X “Even though I don’t believe it logically, it seems like the ‘best place on earth’-hype has actually gotten to me subconsciously.” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
[...] influenced by the herd, and decides they’re better off elsewhere. This striking story from Rust at vancouvercondo.info 10th Nov 2009 at 8:56 am [...]
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Ultraman Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Rust said “It’s been an eye opener. Right now family and work keeps me here, but prices would have to drop DRAMATICALY for me to even consider buying here. It’s become clear to me lately that I’m just not interested in living in Vancouver long term.”
Just in case someone accuses you of being a bitter renter that missed the boat I will tell you that as a homeowner, bought early 2003 before the big run up of RE, I came to the same conclusion so we decided to sell our place, completion Nov. 30.
In other words while it makes no sense for you to buy, it makes no sense for me to own either. And that’s regardless of the fact that my mortgage pmt and my purchase price were relatively low. So unless price of housing comes down drastically and/or salary increase drastically, it’s by, by Vancouver.
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california Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
The herd mentality on this forum that Vancouver isn’t the “best place on earth” plays out like a drawn out Dear John letter. Please, go find the real best place on earth (in Nova Scotia or where-ever the hell you think is so great) and then populate this forum with “told you so’s”. I *promise* you that it will be more gratifying (and faster) than trying to convince people not to buy here in order to drive down prices.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
@california: Are you suggesting that there are those on this forum who think that they have the power to influence the direction of the housing market by the quality and quantity of their posts on this forum?
We all know the dynamics of the Vancouver real estate market and the forces keeping (temporarily) prices at current levels. Once those dynamics change–and they will-then prices will drop, independent of how many posts I make on this site, or how many relatives/friends I tell that real estate here is overpriced.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
@Warren:
“Wealthy foreigners” might not have pumped our real estate market, but “wealthy immigrants” definitely have. Developers know the market — try finding a show home with only English-speaking salespeople.
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california Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Are you suggesting that people on this board aren’t trying to influence each other?
Would you put up with a coworker who constantly whine that their job sucks? Are they so passive that they find a better opportunity elsewhere? Same thing here.
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chesterlampwick Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
There are still many jobs to be filled in the high-tech sector locally. Pixar (at this time probably the best known animation studio in the world) is opening a studio here this winter with Digital Domain (a major U.S. based visual effects house) following closely on it’s heels. There are many other, smaller, CGI companies setting up shop to take advantage of all the film and television work available in this city and the locally established companies seem to be expanding all the time. I work in the animation industry (which for the purposes of this discussion can include Television, Film and video games) and it is my impression, overall, that the outlook for the industry in Vancouver is quite positive. EA has perhaps fallen prey to the bloated, top-heavy, innovation-crushing corporate syndrome that governments are affected by – a relic of the good ol’ days. EA was (and is) a major employer in the high-tech arena in Vancouver to be sure, but I’d argue that these job losses will be absorbed by the influx of film and television CGI-centric work that is coming to town. I think EA is just cleaning house, blowing off some of the dead weight, and this purge is probably long overdue. Vancouver remains a major player in the world of CGI, for now and in the foreseeable future.
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Ultraman Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
For me Vancouver is the best place on earth just because I do a lot of running and the access to some incredible city running routes and mountain trails is unbeatable. Not to speak of good running weather year round. But the fact that I can sell my condo and with the net profit buy a house somewhere else, let’s say southern Quebec, and have a cool $100k left in the bank, makes be believe that the best place on earth has a steep price to it. Too steep really.
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chesterlampwick Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
@Ultraman: That’s a really weird comment Ultraman. So, you feel cheated because you have to pay a premium to live in “the best place on earth” as opposed to the most “Meh…” place on earth? I don’t get the logic… If Vancouver is the best place on earth then I think one million for an 1100 square foot condo is a pretty great deal! It’s kind of like being pissed off because your Maserati cost sooo much more than a ‘02 Ford Taurus. I could sell my Maserati and buy 100 Ford Taurus’s… what gives?
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california Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
@chesterlampwick: That’s funny, because I don’t read where Ultraman says that he feels cheated. Can you point me to the statement?
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Vomitron Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
California, the reason that some of us live here and whinge about it so badly is not because we think we can drive down real estate prices in paradise by blurting on this blog that very few Vancouverites read. It’s because we were here before Vancouver went bad and now we are stuck here in a situation where it’s expensive to detach ourselves and declare refugee status in our own country. We are bitter because our own governments, both Provincial and Federal, have betrayed us by helping to turn Vancouver into a craps table for real estate speculators at the expense of liveability for those of us proles who are not involved in real estate speculation, organized crime, white-collar crime and grow-ups but who are mere typically Vancouverish shitty low-paid Vancouver salarymen and wage slaves.
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chesterlampwick Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Wouldn’t you say that this is the gist of his comment? I thought I was pretty much echoing your statement about the whinning co-worker. All I’m pointing out is that we really are comparing apples to oranges here. He proclaims Vancouver to be the “best place on EARTH to live” yet laments the fact that Vancouver real estate is significantly more expensive than real estate in Southern Quebec. It’s simple market economics no? He makes the bold statement that Vancouver is “the best place on the planet to live” and then complains that it’s multiples more expensive than… what… the 805th best place to live on earth? Maybe I’m infusing a tone of bitterness to his comment that wasn’t intended. I just have trouble with the reasoning here… what’s the point? Some cars cost more than others (because of quality differences mostly) and some pieces of dirt cost more than others. If an arugument can be made that Southern Quebec is just as awesome as Vancouver then yes, we can start talking about overvaluation. Ultraman, himself, named Vancouver the “best place on earth”… now that’s a statement.
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Ultraman Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
chesterlampwick, I don’t feel cheated, actually I don’t know what the hell you’re talking about. Let me put it in a simple way for you. I really like chocolate and let’s agree that Roger’s chocolate is the best on earth, definitively more expensive than your regular Cadbury bar. At 2-3 times the price I don’t mind paying for it, I think it’s worth it. At 7-8 times the price I would consider buying Cadbury, more chocolate for less money. If I move somewhere else it’s not like I can’t run anymore. You see that’s the idea, I really like living in Vancouver but not at that price considering that there are a lot of very acceptable options.
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
@chesterlampwick: Umm, I think Ultraman’s point is that Vancouver is NOT the best place on Earth.
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chesterlampwick Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
@Ultraman: I guess that’s your pick Ultraman. You think you’ll be leaving anytime soon?
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Ultraman Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
chesterlamwick I said for me, FOR ME, Vancouver is the best place on earth because of my lifestyle that revolve mostly around running. I would not proclaim Vancouver to be the best place on earth, while I think it’s a lovely place to live I could see why a lot of people would disagree. while I accept your argument if we assume that southern Quebec is the 805th best place to live, I think you’re way off on the ranking therefore rendering your argument futile.
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Ultraman Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
chesterlampwick, I don’t know when I will be leaving, depends on opportunities and life circumstances I guess. But I sure like being a month notice away from making the move and not having my decision being subject to what I strongly believe will be a major setback of RE price. As a lender for a large CU, I became deeply convinced of the insanity of this market and the delusion of the population here in Vancouver. Some people, a lot of people will be hurt real bad. Make no mistake about that.
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chesterlampwick Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
Alright Ut@Ultraman: Alright Ultraman, perhaps I’m being harsh on Southern Quebec and I’m sure it’s a beautiful place to live, it may even be in the top 20 (and I’m not being facetious, honestly). All I’m trying to get at is this… you say “the best place on earth has a steep price to it. Too steep really.” I guess my response to that is to say “really?”. You’re still here… seems like you have no intention of pocketing that 100k and settling into your mansion in Southern Quebec anytime soon… and that’s the point. Vancouver real estate is what it is because… that’s what it is. You are willing to pay it, sure you’ll bitch about it a bit, but you’re willing to pay it. That is what it’s worth.
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SD92129 Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
#9 logic
“Weed has been ehre for decades, the housing boom hasn’t.”
Unfortunately for your dogmatic statement, an overly simply assumption probably underestimates its impact.
This is a link to a Fraser Institute study where the look at the number of grow-ops.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/1971.....h-Columbia
From the limited data from 1997 to 2000, grow-ops in BC are estimated to go from 7819 in 1997 to 17750 in 2000 (p 18).
What used to be limited to the Gulf Islands and the Kootneys is now widespread throughout the province and hydroponics has shortened the growing cycle and allowed the heavily populated Lower Mainland to cultivate.
So yeah, its been around a long time, but its impact has changed over time.
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california Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
@chesterlampwick. In this time of this housing bubble, perhaps you can look into a course on reading comprehension as preparation for your home buying.
@Vomitron, hey, I’m with you that the market is expensive. I’m priced out too, and think that there will be a better time to get in. But there is a serious hypocrisy on this forum by those trashing Vancouver when it’s so obvious that they’re also drooling over its qualitative value.
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SD92129 Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
Here’s another tidbit from Statistics Canada and BC Stats:
BC GDP by Industry.
Total is 155 billion in 2008. If pot is 7 billion, that is then 4.5% of the economy.
Big impact, little impact…you decide. Its one industry that is not publicly annoucing layoffs.
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other ted Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
49 X chesterlampwick you mention there are still good jobs that need to be filled in Vancouver. Well you sound like one of those guys that insists the economy is good because they are still employed.
first off EA and CGI are not hi tech unless you are working for a company that is developing the tools. They are end users of techonology, no more hi tech than the movie industry. They are entertainment companies. But whatever I get your point they are value added jobs rather than digging something up from the ground or peddling ground that already exists but may become scarce.
Got off topic but the real reason that most jobs go unfilled is that they are very specific and we don’t have the diversity of industry to develop various skill sets. I have said all along to get ahead in Vancouver you either have to be lucky, no someon, or move away then come back after you got the experience you would never get here. And guess what after that most people don’t come back.
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SD92129 Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
chesterwick 49:
lets hope that the dollar stays competitive and the B.C. production tax credits remain attractive.
attracting these kinds of companies would add to vancouver’s claim of being a world class city.
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chesterlampwick Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
@other ted: I only threw the “high-tech” descriptor in there for ease of communication. The original post lumped the EA layoffs in with the rest of the high-tech industry so I just went with it. I agree, film, TV and games, for the most part, are not technically high-tech – but whatever, anyone not directly involved in the industry would likely have trouble sorting out the distinction. I totally disagree with the the idea that you have to “know somebody” to get started in this industry. I just worked my ass off and took any, even remotely related job I could find, did my best at it and the opportunities found me. Yes I have a job. Yes the economy is bad, I understand that and I appreciate that no one can claim a stable job in this environment. I’m simply pinting out that while EA layoffs are capturing headlines today, there have been many positive developments in the wider local industry in the past 6 months with more to come.
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Boombust Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
“And guess what after that most people don’t come back.
That has always been true of Vancouver/Lower Mainland.
When people leave for the Interior, Vancouver Island, the Kootenays, etc. they rarely, if ever, return.
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Wreckonomics Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
@Warren: this link is for the westend only, but Landcor did a study in 2006 showing that 7% of buyers in that neighborhood were foreign, and the number of foreign buyers was declining:
https://www.landcor.com/market/reports/West_End.pdf
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chesterlampwick Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
@california: @california: I get it… that’s sarcasm… well played!
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doh! Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
69 X chesterlampwick Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
@california: @california: I get it… that’s sarcasm… well played!
————–
Well done retard. Took you long enough.
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
@doh!: I don’t know why I’m shocked that “Doh!” didn’t pick up on my sarcasm but I blame myself for allowing this to devolve to this point. I haven’t been called a retard since grade 5.
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patriotzed Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
@SD92129:
Ok, so then (yes you heard it coming)…
Why have real rents declined in Vancouver over the last decade? Why are rental vacancies increasing?
While we’re at it, how come houses in Trail are so much cheaper than in other towns in the region? Can’t they grow dope there too?
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Anonymous Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
@nonymouse:
My company made that list last year … a few months later it shut down
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scullboy Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 11:28 pm
*ahem*
WOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOO!
I got the job offer in Halifax. It’s more money then I made here, PLUS 4 week’s vacation. I’m leaving in 10 days
You know what the best thing about Halifax is?
It’s about as far away from F**KING China as you can get, therefore NOBODY claims realestate is going up because of wealthy Chinese.
Well, that and NOBODY uses the phrase “best place on earth”. After 3 years I’m more then ready to trade cold winters for that.
So…. Franco, California and most of all Supraboy, you guys can SUCK ON MY BIG OL’ MARITIME D**K!
It’s bigger and tastier then anything you’ll find in Richmond, I promise.
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browntown Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
oh yeah nutslaps! Mr. job market say reports of my death are grately exagerated! remembers, lots of jobs of vantastic
“i’m lovin it”
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Partisan Spectator Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 12:33 am
@SD92129:
No public announcement of layoffs in BCBud industry? Hmm…
The media has been kinda busy recently with such “announcements”. Bodies here and bodies there. They probably should come up with some sort of “politically correct” headlines: e.g. “Five layoffs from BCBud discovered at gas station: heated conversation in charge.”
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Franco Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 1:43 am
It’s nice to see many Vancouver Bulls are joining superboy to fight off those idiotic bears.
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logic Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 1:48 am
the blog is pretty much dead
infested with trolls
bye
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Franco Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 2:33 am
You are dead wrong without logic. indeed, this have been enlightened by new comers who contribute honest,truthful,positive,energetic,optimistic,and logic input to dispel misinformation by those infamous minority who perpetrated gloomy outlook of BC and its RE market;however, time and time again the outcome prove otherwise,since 2002.
But shamelessly they keep cranking lies to depress the market.
Fortunately, God bless this Heavenly City daily and its RE which has already gone up for 6% since Feb 09.
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BoB Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 10:43 am
Layoffs in the BC Bud sector? Might be… http://www.budbuddy.biz
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Firmaa Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 10:50 am
I understand reasoning behind chesterlampwick comments regarding the justification for continuous living in Vancouver. It all comes down to priorities in life and the ability to articulate these priorities.
So beginning of this year I have decided that my professional life in Vancouver did not lead to anywhere and I moved to Regina. Yes, Regina.
M life priorities changed. On my new list of priorities night skiing at Cyprus in the winter and relaxing on Crescent Beach in the summer are not there. New priorities are emerged such as: making sure that I have enough income to feed my family and enough saved for retirement. I come to conclusion that I CAN NOT achieve these priorities in Vancouver no matter how hard I work.
On the other hand I am not convinced with chesterlampwick rosy picture regarding IT employment.
Main problem with Vancouver job market was the QUALITY of the jobs. Even the so call “high tech” jobs are actually LOW pay jobs. Small companies expect to pay $15-20 for the coders, database designers, network administrators. That pay is just little bit above retail jobs. Data clearly show that income never increased in the last 20 years. Everything else did – from housing, taxes, education, food.
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betamax Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Scullboy – congrats on the job. Halifax is a beautiful city, I visited there a few years ago and was surprised how much I liked it.
Logic – this blog will only be dead after the crash, when there’s nothing to argue about. Bull trolls serve their purpose as contrary indicators, as evidenced by the illogic of their arguments. People like Franco above who confuse market expectations with general optimism merely remind us of why it’s a bubble doomed to burst no matter how long it has lasted so far.
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krazy kanuk Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 11:37 am
@Ultraman: I hear what you are saying about Vancouver possibly being the best place on earth. I do some running as well, and it’s great. Also, the downtown doesn’t shut down at 5 pm like my hometown of Calgary. I’ve been here for a year on a temporary basis.
Having said this, I disagree with you about the steep price. If you are willing to rent, I find prices here cheaper than Calgary. For example, I’m in a decent (not upscale at all) apartment right downtown. I don’t know exactly how much it costs (my company leases it), but I have a friend there with a 1 bed + den in the same building for $1200 a month. That’s about the same as Calgary. Restaraunts here are cheaper, and I don’t even have a car (no need here….Calgary, almost a necessity).
I agree it’s not cheap living here, but if you aren’t consumed with the desire to buy then it certainly very liveable.
Just my opinion
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california Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
@scullboy, good on ya. not sure why you think it’s a knock on me that you’re going away, but whatever floats your boat. I’m sure that you’ll save in many ways, including on time that you would’ve normally have spent on this site. Time is money, after all.
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scullboy Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Betamax:
Thanks for the good wishes. I started on one side of the country and moved to the other. The things that surprised me most about Vancouver was how few Vancouverites had been east of the Rockies. None of them have a clue about the charms of any other city in Canada. I suppose that’s why they parrot the whole “best place on earth” thing so mindlessly.
I made the same calculation as Firmaa. I spend a lot of money and worked hard in the last few years in order to attain a number of certifications. I even switched careers for a while. No matter what I tried I couldn’t find decent work in Vancouver. I’m not the only one. A number of friends from culinary school did the same thing.
I eventually came to the same conclusion as Firmaa: No way would I ever be able to afford a decent standard of living here no matter how hard I tried. All those zombies claiming this city is “livable” are missing the point. In order for the city to be livable, you have to make enough money not just to pay the rent but also to save for your future.
I lived in Toronto for 10 years. I can’t say I’m a fan of the place but at least you can make decent money there. I was up for a couple of jobs there. Those jobs would have paid 60 – 65 here, tops. There, the going rate was 95K. Bear in mind while it’s about the same cost to rent a place there, it’s MUCH cheaper to buy.
The thing I like about Halifax is it’s a *very* under rated gem of a town. It’s low key. YOu’re never, ever going to get an idiot like Browntown or Supratard claiming “everyone wants to live here” although it’s popular with Europeans looking for a good value. I can’t say for certain it’s always going to be that way but there’s an excellent balance of affordability with quality of life.
I’m so fucking sick of the endless real estate argument. I’m sick of the fucking greed. A home should be your little space in the world, not a vehicle to make enough money to retire on. Assholes like Supra yap yap yap away, and you know they don’t actually own anything, it’s like those Asians that lease expensive cars thinking people are fooled in to believing they are wealthy.
I have a friend here in Van I’ve known 15 years. He’s been contemplating a move as well. UNfortunately he owns a home near Tinseltown. He thought he could rent the place out for the Olympics but he’s having some challenges. He was also planning on selling the place, but he can’t get the price he wants, so he’s stuck here in Van.
Meanwhile I was able to jump on an opportunity the minute it came up with minimal cost. I only have to cover December’s rent and the cost of the move back home.
I have another friend who was laid off a couple of months ago. He was a VP for a company doing security for the airport. He has an excellent resume, and was confident he’d find something relevant soon. He was told by recruiters “don’t worry, with your skills it’ll be easy to place you”. (Side note: Never, ever trust recruiters). Fast forward to today. He has money in the bank, but he’s concerned because of the lack of jobs for someone with his qualifications.
The tech industry here is imploding. More and more people are now chasing fewer and fewer jobs in fewer and fewer companies. Most of the people laid off from eBay are still living on their severance (I know a few personally). They are calm now, mainly because they don’t realize what’s coming.
The only reason I can see it is because I’ve already lived through this scenario years ago. I was laid off from a tech company in Toronto. I ran the tech support department for a company that was a household name at the time. It was one of the largest companies of its kind in the world.
After I got laid off, I relaxed for 3 months. I figured I had been working for 20 years and “deserved” the break. I listened to people who said “Relax for a while, take a vacation”.
BIG MISTAKE. It takes a lot longer to find a job and get hired these days. Because of Monster and Workopolis HR departments commonly get 1,000 resumes PER POSITION. Even if you have 85% of the skills they’re looking for in an IT person, they aren’t satisfied.
Most of the people who were just laid off have grown up and worked their whole careers believing their skills are always going to be in demand and these industries are always short staffed. I feel bad for them, it’s not their fault they’ve been fed a lifetime of false assumptions.
Nevertheless, I’m glad for all the hard lessons I learned over the last few years. I’m miles ahead of the curve. I’ll be glad to watch this one from quite a distance. No matter how much money you have in the bank, a city full of scared and anxious citizens waking up to the real situation they’re in is NOT pleasant.
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Dave Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
I agree with you about recruiters. I get calls from them often and about 99% are out of Toronto and know nothing about BC or the markets they are recruiting in.
The time to find a job depends on your industry and your skills. Support staff have less to offer a company than somebody who can bring in the bacon. There will always be a demand for the latter.
If job security is a big issue for people, then you should either work for the government or be invaluable. If your job is supportive, then it is more vulnerable.
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
@scullboy: “Most of the people laid off from eBay are still living on their severance (I know a few personally). They are calm now, mainly because they don’t realize what’s coming.”
Hey, I resemble that comment
For us eBayers, we are now moving from severance to EI, so we’ll have to at least go through the motions of looking for work. Time to stop the video games…or at least less of it
Its so much easier to achieve that way these days.
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chumpdawg Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
I am working on an article right about RE in Vancouver. It’s working title is “Why a Real Estate Crash Will Be the Best Thing to Happen to Vancouver”.
It’s really a reversal of that title which explains why all the complaints people lay on Vancouver can be traced back to the high cost of RE (whether it be renting or owning)
It will likely never be published in Vancouver, but if it does I may be found floating in the Burrard Inlet. There is an investigative aspect to it. I intend to expose the small group of developers who have a stranglehold on the city which in turn creates an artificial sense of scarcity- thereby increasing the cost of RE and sucking dollars from just about everything else into
Think of all the complaints people make about Vancouver and most of them can be linked to the high price of RE
-No art scene- too expensive to be an artist here- Montreal and Toronto are way cheaper
-No night life apart from 19-24 year old mayhem- no money left over for partying after high rent and mortgage. Imagine if people didn’t need to scrape every cent together for the mortgage…
-No great jobs- why locate your office here when the cost is so high? How can you start a company when all the capital in the city is sucked into RE? There is little money left over for entrepreneurial activity or investment in production so people look elsewhere for investment capital.
-Boring people- imagine how life could be if people didn’t talk, think or worry about RE all the time? they might (gasp) be interested in other things.
-Lame festivals…again, no money left over for people to spend too much on events
Imagine if you could spend less than 30% of your income on housing…how much extra money would people have? what would they do with it? the answers would surprise you.
there is no economic argument for the current situation other than the artificial creation of scarcity and the speculation it encourages. Look around you at all the vacant land…from Main to Clark is nothing but a wide open space…..downtown is still riddled with street level parking lots- unheard of in most urban areas. by strangling development into a few hands and with slick marketing, people have been duped into thinking that paying 8 times annual income for a mortgage is acceptable.
The profits produced for a small group are incredible-and so the will to protect those profits is powerful.
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asalvari1 Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
@scullboy:
Good luck and wish you success. I will definitely miss your rants – one of the kind. In a way, I envy you – you are getting out of the madness and going back to the real world.
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nonymouse Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
@chumpdawg:
Chumpdog if you look at the history of Vancouver it is one of speculation.
“You or your agent hold on to it till property rises, then sell out and buy more land further out of town and repeat the process. I do not quite see how this sort of thing helps the growth of a town, but the English Boy says that it is the ‘essence of speculation,’ so it must be all right.”
Rudyard Kipling writing about his investment about 100 years ago.
Vancouver “is suffering in a special degree from haphazard growth and speculation in real estate, notwithstanding the progress that has taken place in the last few years in regard to the control of sanitary matters and local improvements.”
Thomas Adams urban planner in 1915.
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jesse Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 6:38 pm
@chumpdawg: “The profits produced for a small group are incredible-and so the will to protect those profits is powerful.”
I don’t agree with you that the tail is wagging the dog. There is no scarcity of housing in Vancouver and yet there is a plenitude of people — under no duress — willing to take out significant levels of debt to be owners. The developers would have no power if there were no buyers. Just witness last year when sales fell through the floor and projects were canceled left right and centre.
The real reason for high prices isn’t rich foreigners or even record low interest rates. It’s the locals who buy at the high prices. Nobody, especially the developers, is holding a gun to their heads and there are thousands of places available for rent every month if they don’t want to buy.
But go ahead and run your expose on the Real Estate Industrial Complex. IMO the real story are the buyers willing to make bad investment decisions. But nobody wants to read about that.
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stagnate Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
chumpdawg, there is nothing special about vancouver at all. the demand for sfh’s is a mammoth multiple above the land available for sfh’s. the notion that developers have something to do with it is bogus. all they can do is build condos: and look at the new condo guide this month- they’re back to building condos like there’s no tomorrow.
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Anonymous Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
#83 krazy kanuck said
“Having said this, I disagree with you about the steep price. If you are willing to rent…”
Totally agree with you as many have demonstrated on this blog before, renting is the way to go. This is why I sold my condo. Moving this weekend in a brand new apart at the Woodward’s. About $700-$800 cheaper than owning, worry free, cash in the bank and like I said 1 month notice away from moving. I find the transition to renters to be very liberating. This consumable desire to buy that so many people are obsessed with is making them slaves.
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Ultraman Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
#93 was from me.
Ultraman
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Vic Says:
November 12th, 2009 at 2:30 am
I work in the hi-tech industry and its been downhill for our industry since 2000. I am sure you all know about the 2000 tech bubble and we haven’t really recovered since. A lot of tech companies like Kodak, EA, SAP (aka Business Obj aka Crystal Decisions), Glenayre, PMC-Sierra have been downsizing and ofshoring for years. We have big tech parks that sit empty for years — because nobody is really expanding and there are very few sustainable and quality startups. The big US companies aren’t buying startups like they used to. Back in 2000, if you had a business with the word .com…you would be rich instantly. Today…its not quite the same.
But what’s funny…is that with all these layoffs and high tech workers being idle in Vancouver….and we have a shortage of high tech volunteers for 2010 Olympics. They had to put up job ads and brought in government IT workers to fill the position. Strange…
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No Longer Looking Says:
November 12th, 2009 at 5:14 am
@Vic: “But what’s funny…is that with all these layoffs and high tech workers being idle in Vancouver….and we have a shortage of high tech volunteers for 2010 Olympics. They had to put up job ads and brought in government IT workers to fill the position. Strange…”
Why would anybody work for free while others are making big bucks off the Olympics? Nobody wants to be a sucker (not intentionally).
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Music Dude Says:
November 12th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
“The real reason for high prices isn’t rich foreigners or even record low interest rates. It’s the locals who buy at the high prices. Nobody, especially the developers, is holding a gun to their heads and there are thousands of places available for rent every month if they don’t want to buy.”
Local buyers are in the game partly because of propaganda perpetuated by ‘the developers’. True, no one is holding a gun to their heads, but the ‘fear of loss’ pitch is scaring people into never being able to buy if they don’t do it now.
Scullboy, good luck back east! I grew up in Ottawa and have also lived for 2 years in Toronto, and 2 years in Montreal. There’s nothing bad whatsoever about living back there IMO. It’s a totally different lifestyle than Vancouver, that’s all. The only reason I’m still here is due to my ties to the music and film biz. Oh, and I rent by the way. I would never buy here unless prices dropped dramatically. Nice city, but best in the world? Not likely.
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jesse Says:
November 12th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
@Vic:
Yeah because they want to pay below market rates to save money. Below market rates for temporary position no less, not a permanent full-time position. Good luck filling those positions with quality applicants.