Friday Free-for-all!
Feels like it’s getting close to Holiday time! Let’s do our end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion for the weekend. Here are a few recent stories to kick off the discussion:
-Debt laden BC homeowners warned of interest rate squeeze
-Unemployment falls in canada, rises in BC
-Global crisis? What crisis?
-Housing set to juice economy in the spring
-National vacancy rates increase
-The real estate gamble
-Canadas inflation rate rises
-TIME Person of the year: Ben Bernanke
-US taxpayers at risk with mortgage giants
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:21 pm
@Garth: Ach, that is difficult. There's a lot of subterranean stuff on Craigslist on the West Side, but there are a few apartment buildings in Kerrisdale. I don't know about piano, though.
You might be able to work a deal with a musical family – maybe post something on Craigslist offering music lessons for a family member along with rent? Dunno; in that situation it is harder.
If you don't mind the work, there are a number of co-ops advertising, and I think in general they'd be more open. Phoenix Court in Kits, Marpole Terrace, etc.
December 22nd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
89 mckracken thanks for replying to my post, more antectodal evidence I can now use to refute the people who insisted it was worth spending millions if not a billion to fix that road.
December 22nd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
@Absinthe: I am looking for <$1400/month for 2 bedrooms, but might be able to go a bit higher. I prefer Kerrisdale or adjoining areas. My main difficulty is that my partner needs to be able to teach piano lessons at home. I fear that this may be worse than having a dozen cats when it comes to finding an accommodating landlord. We were lucky with the current place as one of her students offered it to us to rent. Unfortunately it is full of mold.
December 22nd, 2009 at 4:04 am
Read what this joker posted online:-
"The unemployment rate in Vancouver may seem high but it's misleading, because there are A LOT of rich immigrants in Vancouver who are "unemployed" but sit on a lot of money they brought in from other countries or money they saved up. My parents for example are "unemployed" but spend their unemployed days taking cruises, traveling, and enjoying life with their saved up money…. "Unemployment" in Vancouver sometimes means "early retirement." My old neighbors are Americans who immigrated from Hawaii (they swear that Vancouver is more beautiful than Hawaii so they want to retire in Vancouver) and one of them is "unemployed" while the other "works" at a chocolate shop.
Real Estate…I don't think it'll crash after the Olympics…it won't continue growing at such a staggering rate as the past 8 years and will probably stall or slump a little, but there is no way that it will crash. There is no damn way that prices of real estate in 10 years will be lower than what we have now. It will only grow and grow. People say that Vancouver has peaked but I disagree. Vancouver has the potential to be a first-rate North American city, and comparing its real estate prices to comparable cities like San Fran…there's still so much more room to grow. If you put money in Van's real estate and leave it there, you'll only profit in a few years (we're not talking about quick money, but long investment). I think Vancouver has the potential because sooner or later people will put it in the same categories as the expensive American cities."
December 21st, 2009 at 9:38 pm
@other ted:
Ted: You are more right than you know! From a guy (me) who drove that highway every weekend for 25 years, there was absolutely nothing wrong with the old highway; it was the nuts driving on it, not the highway that was always the problem. Widening it has only provided an opportunity for the nuts to drive nuttier!
December 21st, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Assuming that a "homeowner" is current, doesnt the bank or mortgage company automatically permit renewal at the current rate regardless if the mortgage is underwater or not?
One thing that they could also do a la Fannie/Freddie is put a cap on the amount which the CMHC will insure. In the states, if you mortgage was over that (ie. Jumbo), your rate was higher. Although this cap varied from state to state.
December 21st, 2009 at 3:23 pm
@Nonymouse – "What happens when the mortgages come up that were 5/35 upon renewal?"
Or 0/40. It's a good question and the same question that we've all been asking about when rates go up. Once people are in, they're in, they won't have to worry about the downpayment again, obviously. But on renewal, they're subject to the rates at that time. So, by 2012, mortgage rates could be a few points higher, which equates to a few hundred maybe thousands, all relative on the amount borrowed. So what happens to those who then, can't afford their payments? Stay tuned.
The changes in downpayments and amortization periods is going to even further reduce the number of potential buyers. Squeezing the illiquid, debt laden, undiligent sheeple and will open the door for the rest of us.
I'm looking forward to this.
December 21st, 2009 at 3:21 pm
I was going to comment on a story in todays 'Sun' but then I read the next one and decided that it wasn't worth the effort. What a shithole !!!!! Vanshitstain is the kind of place your mother warned you about.
In the immortal words of 'The Joker'
"This town needs an enema".
December 21st, 2009 at 2:18 pm
The last sentence should read : Thumbs up or thumbs down… my bad – I got overtaken by emotions!
December 21st, 2009 at 2:11 pm
"Do you believe?" TM
Most people want to… they're scared, confused and trust no one. But they want to… so badly
It is smuch easier to believe good news than bad.
People want to believe they're making good decisions.
They've been told to save for their retirement and RE seems to be the only way to make any money these days. If not that, at least they won't lose it to the rampant inflation, right?
Did you look at what banks offer theses days?
1% term deposits??? WTF???
So ordinary, hard working people go and buy overpriced properties enslaving themselves for life just so they can feel a little better about their future and their kids future perhaps.
Flippers and speculators I cannot feel sorry for. But the rest of them are desperate slaves ready for the slaughter – while the elite sits on the stands enjoying the spectacle and the roar of the lions soon to be fed. Thumbs up or thumbs up – what's it gonna be???
This system makes me sick.
December 21st, 2009 at 2:10 pm
If 10/25 get announced we could see the last bit of gas thrown on the bonfire.
What happens when the mortgages come up that were 5/35 upon renewal?
Interesting times.
December 21st, 2009 at 2:07 pm
"We have sentimental equity. "
———-
Good job eating that if/when you lose your job.
December 21st, 2009 at 1:54 pm
If a editor with Wall Street Journal thinks like this …
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/1084…
… what to expect in Vancouver? Well nothing, the home i rent got 2 offers under asking price, but owner holds the price!
December 21st, 2009 at 1:42 pm
the voting is entirely reader driven. readers can vote + or – entirely by their whim. just like a democracy.
December 21st, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Question regarding the voting mechanism of this blog: is it being misunderstood and misused? Look at my comments above- should they really be grayed out if more people have a different opinion than those who agree with them? Is this feature meant to dismiss opinions not popular with the reading public or just dismiss those posts that are not related to the subject of the discussion?
I think something is broken here…
December 21st, 2009 at 12:25 pm
@Garth – What's your price range for a two bedroom, and do you have a preferred location?
I found my place with relentless sifting, and constraining the top end on the search results on Craigslist. There are indeed an overwhelming number of places targeted to the top 15% of wage earners.
Some neighborhoods, it's best to get on a good pair of shoes and just walk looking for For Rent signs, because any good deal doesn't hit Craigslist.
December 21st, 2009 at 10:53 am
10/25 here we come.
it may be well after the (stupid) horses have bolted, but at least it will stop the remaining slow horses (or foals) from doing the same.
December 21st, 2009 at 10:04 am
Some good news for the holidays!
Could it be that our letters actually reached this guy?
Flaherty warns on mortgage rules
CTV says Ottawa is considering raising the minimum down payment for home buyers as well as reducing the amortization period in order to stop some consumers from taking on too much debt.
http://tinyurl.com/ycfbzaf
And, if they don't change the mortgage rates, there will be increases due to steepening of the long-term term structure of interest rates.
Treasury Yield Curve Steepens to Record
The difference between 2- and 10- year Treasury note yields widened to the most ever as investors bet an accelerating recovery will fuel inflation and damp demand for government debt as the U.S. borrows record amounts.
The yield curve touched 281.4 basis points before the Treasury announces Dec. 23 how much it plans to auction in 2-, 5-and 7-year notes next week. It widened from 145 basis points at the beginning of the year, with the Federal Reserve anchoring its target rate at virtually zero and the Treasury extending the average maturity of U.S. debt.
http://tinyurl.com/y9uaenr
December 21st, 2009 at 5:00 am
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
There's that "if", again.
Really heavy thinking required here.
Just maybe, is he getting the message that he can have a mild bust now (except in BC, which will be getting a meltdown), or a big bust later? And that the latest 35% in the polls means no majority government any time soon?
Can you say "905"?
December 21st, 2009 at 1:18 am
I like how every MSM article refers to the recession in the past tense, have you noticed that? Hook, line, sinker.
“Unlike previous years, my reply that I had NOT purchased was NOT greeted with exclamations of “Why not?? You gotta buy sometime! Come on, hurry up and buy!!!” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
December 20th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
[...] from pricedoutfornow at vancouvercondo.info 20 Dec 2009 5:49 pm [...]
December 20th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
The impacts of the recession on fine dining in Vancouver&hellip ;http://tinyurl.com/yk3hauy
$35K Olympic Rental – Hail Mary Pass? …or Excellent Prank? « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
December 20th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
[...] Update 12 Dec 2009 (hat-tip to garth at vancouvercondo.info) [...]
December 20th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
@Garth: I am pretty sure I can accurately profile the lovely little landlord that posted this one on CL. I hope he rots.
December 20th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
"Has the wind changed direction finally?"
Not so fast.
I was talking to a group of highly educated professionals who were bemoaning the fact that young people, with their poor lower level wages/salaries could never HOPE to get into the local RE market.
NO ONE suggested that prices may (will) have to "adjust downward" to reflect that.
December 20th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Garth -
The fabulous listing you cite was previously archived at $35K (pdf still available) -
http://tinyurl.com/yjthspb
I note that they now apparently have a jaguar (the animal) climbing out of their fireplace, in addition to the corpse on the bed.
December 20th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
"Eurasia has always been at war with Oceania."
Blackwhite thinkers may disagree.
December 20th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
Some interesting observations from this weekend. Went to a few Christmas parties where RE came up. One co-worker revealed she and her husband recently purchased a house in South East Vancouver ($600k maybe?) They are both around 55 years old. First time home buyers, they've rented since arriving in Canada about 15 years ago. Everyone at the table fell silent and one person was bold enough to ask "What are you doing, planning to pass on the debt to your children??"
Another party I was asked not once, but twice, by different people, if I'd purchased the new place where I'm living. However, unlike previous years, my reply of NO was not greeted with exclamations of "why not?? you gotta buy sometime! come on, hurry up and buy!!!" Both people simply fell silent and no one who was listening even offered any such advice. Strange indeed. Has the wind changed direction finally?
December 20th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
I was browsing craigslist looking for a place in Kerrisdale or Vancouver, and ran across this excellent listing for an Olympic rental:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1505436…
You get a whole floor of the house for only $15000. And that is a $20000 savings from their ad 4 days prior!
While on this topic, I've read about people here getting good rental deals. Where can I find these? I am looking for a spacious 2 bedroom with some privacy, and no mold stink.
December 20th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
@Vansanity:
Yes the award is not just for being a "good guy". The year before last it was awarded to Putin I think. But it's supposed to be awarded to people who have made an impact – not those who are just reacting to events brought about by others. IMHO giving it to Bernanke is like giving the award to Neville Chamberlain in 1939.
December 20th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
@Anonymous:
Indeed they are, both in the US and in Canada. Which means that prices are being artificially supported, even in the US where they are down significantly – and in some markets massively – from the peak.
But of course that's the irony, that this fact is reported by the same guy who in 2005 said that the long run prospects for housing were solid. With no apparent embarrassment on his part.
Eurasia has always been at war with Oceania.
December 20th, 2009 at 11:57 am
Patriotz
"If there’s been a consistent narrative to this year and every other in this decade, it’s that most of us, Bernanke
included, have been so easily bamboozled."
Maybe this should be our new logo, my friend. We are a few men/women strong, but we can proudly declare:
"NOT EASILY BAMBOOZLED"
How about T-Shirts LOL?
Regards
arit
December 20th, 2009 at 11:49 am
@patriotz:
RE 57, I agree with you. Most arguments in that article are, to the very least, disputable.
I think however that there is one solid fact: most mortgages are now, in a way or the other, linked to government financing/guarantess. In Canada we are in a similar, if not worse, situation at the moment.
That is stunning! Stunning in fact!
December 20th, 2009 at 11:00 am
The Time Person of the Year award is for the biggest "newsmaker". It doesn't mean the "greatest" amongst us. In fact, Adolf Hitler won the award in 1938, just to put it in perspective.
December 20th, 2009 at 9:28 am
"…to the inane (balloon boy)."
Poor balloon boy. He was a victim too…
December 20th, 2009 at 9:03 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/20/opinion/20rich….
December 20th, 2009 at 4:41 am
@domus:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Arti…
Regular readers of the bubble blogs will recognize that the points cited above were demonstrably faulty even back in 2005.
Both the Hudson Institute and the Harvard University's Joint (i.e, RE industry funded) Center for Housing Studies were leading housing bubble deniers.
December 20th, 2009 at 12:59 am
The US government is now supporting 80% of the mortgage market
(from the Times of London)
http://tinyurl.com/yl7mw3s
Just one questions: are homes such an important producive investment that they deserve such enormous subsidization from taxpayers?
Or maybe they are just a way to buy re-election from voters who benefit?
This system is so rotten that soon i will crash over its own foundations. The crash is coming and this time it will stay for a while. Don't get into this market, help yourself if you still can.
December 20th, 2009 at 12:22 am
#45 @NO- LYMPICS: The Machiavellian in me hoped they would build a second highway with no speed limits for all the assholes in a rush.
December 19th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
36 realpaul – I think it's great the way they delineate between drug addicts and thieves and crime in the DTES – like that's the ONLY possible place where those behaviors could possibly take place! So if you shoplift to keep from starving you're a low down thief…if you steal millions in public money to expand the Sea to Sky for developers, or lube the Olympic committee for your pals in RE development, you're…Premier!
and DON'T MAKE EYE CONTACT!!! Jesus! Yes, everyone on the dtes is a raving maniac waiting for you to make one wrong move so they can kill you and saw your head off with a rusty tin can!
And, oh yeah, the only place in all of Vancouver where people have substance abuse problems is the DTES! Everyone else, in Pt Grey, West Van, are just fine, thank you.
What a crock!
December 19th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
#52 asp
Careful heathen/NDP voter !!!!
BTW: Was that a lightning bolt , or are you at YVR being tasered by the Queen's cowboys after a flight from Eastern Europe?
December 19th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
@ #43 : "Don't you know there ain't no Devil, there's just God when he's drunk."
December 19th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
#50 realpaul
"opposition" by its former name……now its simply 300 + losers in Ottawa that have been "whipped" into an "obey the party leader" mode, collect generous salaries, perks and pensions…. OR ELSE ! In other words, as long as each Federal riding has a warm pulse , objective achieved.
I guess I better quit watching History Channel, it's depressing to see what HELL all those poor soldiers went through and died for ….yet our recent crews in Ottawa have ignored and/or forgotten. What an F'n waste !