Holiday free-for-all!

I hope that whatever you’re doing, you’re enjoying it. Normally on Friday I post a list of recent stories, but hey – it’s a holiday! If I get to it, they’ll be posted below, but feel free to add your own links and thoughts in the comments, and have an excellent weekend!

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rp
rp
10 years ago

#24 @patriotzed: +50 I prefer this clip though:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueuauKKjPZI

stagnate
stagnate
10 years ago

Philo says:

The reason that rents are an objective measure of a cities ‘niceness’ is because it measures month to month what its residents are willing to pay to live there.

no, it's not that simple. rents are actually more representative of what residents can afford to pay, not what they are willing to pay. you could argue the price points but the demand dynamic for real estate is much stronger in vancouver. the majority of the readers here even would pay double for a house in vancouver as opposed to calgary; whether it be 100,000 to 200,000 or 300,000 to 600,000. incomes can be the same but the demand entirely different. i agree with dave, calgary can't be compared to vancouver. i personally wouldn't be caught dead living in calgary.

Philo
Philo
10 years ago

@Dave: Not at all. Calgary is a nice place, but Vancouver is a different level. Rent doesn’t enter into it. You seem to have completely missed patriotz point. You like Vancouver much better than Calgary, therefore it is nicer. That's not objective, it's subjective. The reason that rents are an objective measure of a cities 'niceness' is because it measures month to month what its residents are willing to pay to live there. You like the environment in Vancouver and maybe you are willing to pay more than market rent – that's a personal choice. I for one can see why rent is so low here, it's not really a great environment despite the hype (for me, subjectively). When my work contract is up I'm out of here and moving back south. I can't handle the dark grey winter days,… Read more »

browntown
browntown
10 years ago

oh yeaah nutspanks! ARIT dont be so cheap! boom2 from one year ago! best predicktion!

Vancouverboom2’s Dec 19. 2008 prediction for 2009

> Lets take a preview of vancouver real estate 2009?

> Sell List Ratio?UP

> Average Prices? IMPROVED Rental Vacancy Rates? 0.5 Vancouver

> Economy? UP

> Re-Sale home inventory? SOAKED

> Future supply ? SOAKED

> Interest Rates? LOW

> Hey Vancouverites Happy New Year

Anonymoose
Anonymoose
10 years ago

"“Supraboy: “blah blah blah Chinese restaurants blah blah blah”

How dare you mock the Chinese Restaurant Indicator? It will soon replace such simpleminded nonsense as P/E ratios or the Dow. It is the Little Red Book for the Super Happy New Han Millenium.

arit
10 years ago

RichAsian,

1. You have not answered my question: How did you become rich. This is the third and last time I ask you this. If you do not answer you will be known from now on as the COWARD-RichAsian.

2. I showed your post to my hot wife as she was about to put the kids to sleep. She laughed at you and said that you need a house to get women because you have a very small organ. Tiny.

Regards

arit

realpaul
realpaul
10 years ago

#28 RA, I'm happy to note that you are welcomed to live in the west. I am very satisfied that centuries of hardwork by peoples of the western civilization have engendered a safe enviornment so that we could save you from that shithole you had to escape from.

When you're driving your kids to the free schools and your aged parents to the free doctor you may notice that you came here because ASIAN's in ASIA have shit in thier own nests have have rendered thier own homelands into nasty toilets where people like you want to escape from.

BTW , don't go to Perth, you would not be a happy mouthy asian there. Aussies are less kind.

Oh, and welcome to Canada, asshole parasite.

Mutasem
10 years ago

Yeah Canada is in a way better position than the US and Europe so wouldnt short the Canadian dollar. Plus Commodity prices will continue to rise and causing the Canadian dollar to rise even more.

I would also rather have US dollars that Euro's as Europe is even worse shape that the US except for Germany. But Canada, New Zeland, Australia and Asian currency's will do well going forward and have been all year.

Also most houses in Vancouver need a lot of work but the owners cant afford to do it because the mortgage is too high thats why you see so many tear downs but with owners still living in them. When the bubble bursts it will be way easier to tear all these houses down.

richasian
richasian
10 years ago

I hope all you kidless, single renter losers had a good christmas at mommy and daddy's. I took my family to Hawaii. Anyway have fun in that moldy piece of crap rental suite you scum sucking losers! Have a miserable new years.

Dave
10 years ago

@patriotzed:

Not at all. Calgary is a nice place, but Vancouver is a different level. Rent doesn't enter into it.

patriotzed
patriotzed
10 years ago

@logic:

tbh, Perth is a nice place to live. however, its only one of many

The only objective measure of how "nice" a place is to live in is the market rent. By this measure Vancouver is no "nicer" than Calgary, etc.

Living somewhere and buying a property somewhere are two different things. To believe otherwise is the fallacy that leads to bubbles.

patriotzed
patriotzed
10 years ago

@casanova:

how to short the canadian housing market?

the only thing I can think of is to short the canadian dollar.

A Candian housing bust:

1. Will have no effect on demand for Canadian exports (oil, etc.)

2. Will result in decreased domestic demand (like in the US) for stuff from Wal_Mart, BMW's, etc.

Therefore IMHO

3. It would result in a higher, not lower, CAD.

patriotzed
patriotzed
10 years ago

Guess what! I found a copy of the training video that Flaherty is using on how to defuse the "housing bomb". Take a look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0

logic
logic
10 years ago

tbh, Perth is a nice place to live. however, its only one of many.

Boombust
Boombust
10 years ago

“If you want really, truly over-priced housing go to Perth, the sand-pit, in Wesern Australia."

I'd rather not.

Have you been drinking?

Boombust
Boombust
10 years ago

Vancouver RE memes…

What is a meme, you say?

"Theorists point out that memes which replicate the most effectively spread best, and some memes may replicate effectively even when they prove detrimental to the welfare of their hosts."

"Real estate only goes up, we're running out of land, everyone wants to live here." Hmm…

Blah. Blah. And blah.

Ulsterman
Ulsterman
10 years ago

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6890

I saw this commment on the Daily Telegraph website talking about affordability of UK housing. It's funny how the same old issues do the rounds…

"If you want really, truly over-priced housing go to Perth, the sand-pit, in Wesern Australia. It's 7.5 x the average full-time salary now for an average house. All the Aussies can say is "we're special, our prices will always go up. It's different here to UK or the USA". Sound familiar to anyone?"

I hope Vancouverites will not be too upset to discover that there are other "special" cities in the world.

betamax
betamax
10 years ago

"Supraboy: "blah blah blah Chinese restaurants blah blah blah"

Supraboy
Supraboy
10 years ago

All you fools predicting a real estate meltdown is on crack. Did you guys see how much our economy is booming? I dropped by NCIX yesterday at Aberdeen, what a ridiculous lineup. Chinese restaurants continue to be packed. If you want to buy a house in the Lower Mainland for cheap, you better head out to port moody because you ain't getting it in Vancouver.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

@casanova:

US dollar is worth shit. Their economy is over. They are spending too much and not saving enough. Canada is not doing any better. US is going into the shithole and we are going with them. Why bother compare Canada and US.

The world market is shifting to Euro. The unwanted US dollar reserve will be dumped into the market causing massive inflation.

realpaul
realpaul
10 years ago

#11 Good points and I think we can nail it down by saying that the CDN real estate market is way over the top and that consumer price inflation is exploding in Canada.

John
John
10 years ago

John Paulson did make that call and income to price ratio was his main indicator. He made billions making that call in 2007 by shorting home builders and anything else that had anything to do with housing. Recently he made an equally impressive bet by putting a huge chunk of his own money and clients on gold.

His metric for the us market was average family income vs. detached average single family home. At the peak the US hit 5.7. In Canada we currently have 7.4 in Toronto and 10.5 in Vancouver. John Paulson would have an absolute field day in Canada right now.

Boombust
Boombust
10 years ago

"Have a great weekend Pope! I hope you did not get too many bruises from that woman jumping on you again."

Yeah, that poor woman. The media suggested she had psychological problems.

However, I think it's the Pope with the problems. Isn't he the one who believes in a talking snake?

vreaa
10 years ago

Prediction For The Coming Decade: A Real Estate Bear Market Will Be Vancouver’s Defining Social And Economic Event.

See:
http://tinyurl.com/y97ex74

Excerpt:

"Factors threatening market health have steadily accumulated, and in our opinion they are approximating a critical mass. A virtuous cycle is about to turn vicious. All evidence suggests that Vancouver Real Estate is heading for a very significant bear market. Unfortunately, conditions have become so distorted that a simple return to normal will have profound and prolonged consequences for our city. The coming housing bust will effect all Vancouverites, and the fallout will not be good. For our city, this RE crash will quite likely be the defining social and economic event of the next decade."

The factors in the drama are summarized at VREAA.

Mutasem
10 years ago

This just mean Canadian housing market is overvalued. The US dollar can rally from time to time but over the long term it will go down further than the Canadian dollar. I think Canadian dollar will be above par for a long time after this recent US dollar rally is over with but relative to Euro or Sterling US dollar is a lot better. You should also consider that the US dollar is down more that 90% since the Federal Reserve was created; same is true for other currencies though. So if you’re betting on a dollar rise it should only be short term bet as the trend is clear. Also the US dollar only has buying power to buy cheap products from China is because China keeps its currency artificially low thereby keeping prices of goods and Walmart low,… Read more »