Holiday free-for-all!
I hope that whatever you’re doing, you’re enjoying it. Normally on Friday I post a list of recent stories, but hey – it’s a holiday! If I get to it, they’ll be posted below, but feel free to add your own links and thoughts in the comments, and have an excellent weekend!
RSS 2.0 comments feed. leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
December 28th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
#24 @patriotzed: +50 I prefer this clip though:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueuauKKjPZI
December 28th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Philo says:
The reason that rents are an objective measure of a cities ‘niceness’ is because it measures month to month what its residents are willing to pay to live there.
no, it’s not that simple. rents are actually more representative of what residents can afford to pay, not what they are willing to pay. you could argue the price points but the demand dynamic for real estate is much stronger in vancouver. the majority of the readers here even would pay double for a house in vancouver as opposed to calgary; whether it be 100,000 to 200,000 or 300,000 to 600,000. incomes can be the same but the demand entirely different. i agree with dave, calgary can’t be compared to vancouver. i personally wouldn’t be caught dead living in calgary.
December 28th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
@Dave: Not at all. Calgary is a nice place, but Vancouver is a different level. Rent doesn’t enter into it.
You seem to have completely missed patriotz point. You like Vancouver much better than Calgary, therefore it is nicer. That’s not objective, it’s subjective.
The reason that rents are an objective measure of a cities ‘niceness’ is because it measures month to month what its residents are willing to pay to live there.
You like the environment in Vancouver and maybe you are willing to pay more than market rent – that’s a personal choice. I for one can see why rent is so low here, it’s not really a great environment despite the hype (for me, subjectively). When my work contract is up I’m out of here and moving back south. I can’t handle the dark grey winter days, but thats just a personal preference.
December 28th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
oh yeaah nutspanks! ARIT dont be so cheap! boom2 from one year ago! best predicktion!
Vancouverboom2’s Dec 19. 2008 prediction for 2009
> Lets take a preview of vancouver real estate 2009?
> Sell List Ratio?UP
> Average Prices? IMPROVED Rental Vacancy Rates? 0.5 Vancouver
> Economy? UP
> Re-Sale home inventory? SOAKED
> Future supply ? SOAKED
> Interest Rates? LOW
> Hey Vancouverites Happy New Year
December 28th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
““Supraboy: “blah blah blah Chinese restaurants blah blah blah”
How dare you mock the Chinese Restaurant Indicator? It will soon replace such simpleminded nonsense as P/E ratios or the Dow. It is the Little Red Book for the Super Happy New Han Millenium.
December 28th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
RichAsian,
1. You have not answered my question: How did you become rich. This is the third and last time I ask you this. If you do not answer you will be known from now on as the COWARD-RichAsian.
2. I showed your post to my hot wife as she was about to put the kids to sleep. She laughed at you and said that you need a house to get women because you have a very small organ. Tiny.
Regards
arit
December 28th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
#28 RA, I’m happy to note that you are welcomed to live in the west. I am very satisfied that centuries of hardwork by peoples of the western civilization have engendered a safe enviornment so that we could save you from that shithole you had to escape from.
When you’re driving your kids to the free schools and your aged parents to the free doctor you may notice that you came here because ASIAN’s in ASIA have shit in thier own nests have have rendered thier own homelands into nasty toilets where people like you want to escape from.
BTW , don’t go to Perth, you would not be a happy mouthy asian there. Aussies are less kind.
Oh, and welcome to Canada, asshole parasite.
December 28th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Yeah Canada is in a way better position than the US and Europe so wouldnt short the Canadian dollar. Plus Commodity prices will continue to rise and causing the Canadian dollar to rise even more.
I would also rather have US dollars that Euro’s as Europe is even worse shape that the US except for Germany. But Canada, New Zeland, Australia and Asian currency’s will do well going forward and have been all year.
Also most houses in Vancouver need a lot of work but the owners cant afford to do it because the mortgage is too high thats why you see so many tear downs but with owners still living in them. When the bubble bursts it will be way easier to tear all these houses down.
December 28th, 2009 at 11:24 am
I hope all you kidless, single renter losers had a good christmas at mommy and daddy’s. I took my family to Hawaii. Anyway have fun in that moldy piece of crap rental suite you scum sucking losers! Have a miserable new years.
December 28th, 2009 at 10:49 am
@patriotzed:
Not at all. Calgary is a nice place, but Vancouver is a different level. Rent doesn’t enter into it.
December 28th, 2009 at 5:37 am
@logic:
The only objective measure of how “nice” a place is to live in is the market rent. By this measure Vancouver is no “nicer” than Calgary, etc.
Living somewhere and buying a property somewhere are two different things. To believe otherwise is the fallacy that leads to bubbles.
December 28th, 2009 at 4:21 am
@casanova:
A Candian housing bust:
1. Will have no effect on demand for Canadian exports (oil, etc.)
2. Will result in decreased domestic demand (like in the US) for stuff from Wal_Mart, BMW’s, etc.
Therefore IMHO
3. It would result in a higher, not lower, CAD.
December 28th, 2009 at 4:04 am
Guess what! I found a copy of the training video that Flaherty is using on how to defuse the “housing bomb”. Take a look:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0
December 28th, 2009 at 12:10 am
tbh, Perth is a nice place to live. however, its only one of many.
December 27th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
“If you want really, truly over-priced housing go to Perth, the sand-pit, in Wesern Australia.”
I’d rather not.
Have you been drinking?
December 27th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
Vancouver RE memes…
What is a meme, you say?
“Theorists point out that memes which replicate the most effectively spread best, and some memes may replicate effectively even when they prove detrimental to the welfare of their hosts.”
“Real estate only goes up, we’re running out of land, everyone wants to live here.” Hmm…
Blah. Blah. And blah.
December 27th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin.....arket.html
I saw this commment on the Daily Telegraph website talking about affordability of UK housing. It’s funny how the same old issues do the rounds…
“If you want really, truly over-priced housing go to Perth, the sand-pit, in Wesern Australia. It’s 7.5 x the average full-time salary now for an average house. All the Aussies can say is “we’re special, our prices will always go up. It’s different here to UK or the USA”. Sound familiar to anyone?”
I hope Vancouverites will not be too upset to discover that there are other “special” cities in the world.
December 27th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
“Supraboy: “blah blah blah Chinese restaurants blah blah blah”
December 27th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
All you fools predicting a real estate meltdown is on crack. Did you guys see how much our economy is booming? I dropped by NCIX yesterday at Aberdeen, what a ridiculous lineup. Chinese restaurants continue to be packed. If you want to buy a house in the Lower Mainland for cheap, you better head out to port moody because you ain’t getting it in Vancouver.
December 27th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
@casanova:
US dollar is worth shit. Their economy is over. They are spending too much and not saving enough. Canada is not doing any better. US is going into the shithole and we are going with them. Why bother compare Canada and US.
The world market is shifting to Euro. The unwanted US dollar reserve will be dumped into the market causing massive inflation.
December 27th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
#11 Good points and I think we can nail it down by saying that the CDN real estate market is way over the top and that consumer price inflation is exploding in Canada.
December 27th, 2009 at 10:00 am
John Paulson did make that call and income to price ratio was his main indicator. He made billions making that call in 2007 by shorting home builders and anything else that had anything to do with housing. Recently he made an equally impressive bet by putting a huge chunk of his own money and clients on gold.
His metric for the us market was average family income vs. detached average single family home. At the peak the US hit 5.7. In Canada we currently have 7.4 in Toronto and 10.5 in Vancouver. John Paulson would have an absolute field day in Canada right now.
December 27th, 2009 at 9:50 am
“Have a great weekend Pope! I hope you did not get too many bruises from that woman jumping on you again.”
Yeah, that poor woman. The media suggested she had psychological problems.
However, I think it’s the Pope with the problems. Isn’t he the one who believes in a talking snake?
December 27th, 2009 at 9:05 am
Prediction For The Coming Decade: A Real Estate Bear Market Will Be Vancouver’s Defining Social And Economic Event.
See:
http://tinyurl.com/y97ex74
Excerpt:
“Factors threatening market health have steadily accumulated, and in our opinion they are approximating a critical mass. A virtuous cycle is about to turn vicious. All evidence suggests that Vancouver Real Estate is heading for a very significant bear market. Unfortunately, conditions have become so distorted that a simple return to normal will have profound and prolonged consequences for our city. The coming housing bust will effect all Vancouverites, and the fallout will not be good. For our city, this RE crash will quite likely be the defining social and economic event of the next decade.”
The factors in the drama are summarized at VREAA.
December 26th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
This just mean Canadian housing market is overvalued. The US dollar can rally from time to time but over the long term it will go down further than the Canadian dollar. I think Canadian dollar will be above par for a long time after this recent US dollar rally is over with but relative to Euro or Sterling US dollar is a lot better. You should also consider that the US dollar is down more that 90% since the Federal Reserve was created; same is true for other currencies though. So if you’re betting on a dollar rise it should only be short term bet as the trend is clear.
Also the US dollar only has buying power to buy cheap products from China is because China keeps its currency artificially low thereby keeping prices of goods and Walmart low, but once that stops and China lets the currency appreciate US dollar won’t buy much even at Walmart. China’s is the Fed’s best friend keeping inflation low while the Fed is pumping money into the system, but that can only last so long.
A lot of people just don’t get it, the addition of the BRIC’s and Eastern Europe to the global economy and the death communism has a huge impact on the world economy. Over 3 billion people have now moved from communism to capitalism, and you still think the US will be king? Sure it will take a while before they go up to living standards of the US but it’s happening fast you can tell from commodity consumption that’s rising by double digits in most emerging markets but falling in the developed world. Just look at the UK it use to be an Empire but after WW2 it lost most of its power and the US became the dominant power. Empires die and new ones come along; you will need to get use to a world with multiple powers instead of one dominant one. Look at the stock markets in Asia and the BRIC’s, Brazil is up over 100% this year and the US what 20%?
December 26th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Why dont understand why everyone thinks that USD is toast. 1 usd still buys much more things on the other side of the border compaired to what 1 cad buys here. On a purchasing gpower basis the USD is 20 to 35% undervalued and it will come back big time. I d ratehr have 1usd than 1 cad. you need 1m cad to buy a piece of crap shoebox in Vancouver wheras 1 m usd buys you 2 castles in sunny california. Cant you see the difference?
December 26th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Here lies Debt….RIP…he was a good man…lived for the moment…but these moments are fleeting…thus it is time to turn the page…we then turn from this era of transgression and enter into a time of renewed financial practice and responsibility. We turn away from the worldly Banks and their ensnaring ways and walk toward the road of freedom…Selah
December 26th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Yeah 2010 will intresting for now the bubble is going full steam ahead so cant short anything. I am guessing I can short Canadian banks but we’ll see if there price starts going lower I can start with a small short position and then add to it.
December 26th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Perhaps you could buy puts on companies that are heavily into real estate. When they crash and burn (and they likely will because they are highly leveraged) you can make some cash. They really are running out of new ways to extend this bubble. Interest rates are about as low as they can go, amortizations at 35 years, Canwest has pumped with everything they have, and CMHC has lowered it’s lending standards to include anyone who can fog a mirror. There really isn’t much left to create more upside and even flat prices will kill many investors.
2010 is going to be an interesting year…
December 26th, 2009 at 11:55 am
But the americans have always monetized there way out of huge debts if you look back. Also if the Fed raises the intrest rates the US goverment wont be able to pay there debts. There already borrowing money to pay the intrest of the debt, its a ponzi scheme.
Long Yuan maybe the best idea, if China lets Yuan appreciate there citizen’s will be richer and be able to consume and wont need US exports. Also the western world only consumes about 30% or China’s exports 70% goes to the rest of the world. So the west over estimates its importance to China by a far margin.
December 26th, 2009 at 2:56 am
The US may have to substantially raise interest rates in order to find buyers for their insane debt. In that scenario the Canadian dollar would probably fall against the US dollar. I don’t think the Americans can monetize much more without shaking the world’s faith in their economic system.
http://www.zerohedge.com/artic.....ld-or-else
December 26th, 2009 at 12:12 am
long for Chinese Yuan would be the way to go… if you have a way to get money into China of course.
December 25th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
Short Canadian dollar? I am not sure about that trade. The US has record budget defecits and printing a lot of money unless Canada gets in the same situation I dont see the Canadian dollar going down vs US even with a bad housing market. The US dollar’s best days are behind it. Can is a commodity exporter as commodity prices keep rising the canadian dollar will too.
Banks may go down as housing prices collapse, causing even the mortgages they have to default.
December 25th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
how to short the canadian housing market?
the only thing I can think of is to short the canadian dollar. Shorting the banks it is no good, they dont have any morgages in their books, all the crap is sitting with CHMC, so I can only think of shorting CAD against US, I see no other possibilities.
In any case smth has to give as on a purchasing power basis 100k usd buys much more house than what 100k cad buys here, so either home prices must come down significantly or cad/usd exchange rate is adjusted, so fundamentals can reassert themselfs again as they always do in the end.
December 25th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Anyone has any ideas on how to short Canadian housing market? let me know and post comment on by blog too http://oitb.blogspot.com
Apparently John Paulson was convinced to go short US housing by looking at a chart of salaries to housing prices, after 2000 housing prices skyrocketed while salaries went up slowly. Canada is similar, especially Vancouver.
December 25th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Have a great weekend Pope! I hope you did not get too many bruises from that woman jumping on you again. You are too irresistible to females, apparently.
Thanks for keeping this blog in such great shape, we owe you.
Regards and happy Festivus!
arit