US predicts Olympic flop:

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/inde…

The land availability argument has felt a bit tepid to me in Vancouver. Prior to this, I lived in Silicon Valley and there was that same debate. Land locked by mountains and water, endless supply of knowledge and talent from Stanford and Berkeley. Plus, they have zoning laws to keep dwellings under some relatively low height due to earthquake danger. Home prices went up in the late 90's because there were tons of jobs. Then it seems to have leveled off over the last 5 years. There is some truth to the land availability affecting costs, but it's not the driving force.

http://www.househunting.ca/buying-homes/story.htm… '"If you're somebody in a situation that you have only five per cent down and you're stretching to get in the market with a 35-year amortization, I think that would be a very precarious situation right now," said BMO Capital market economist Robert Kavcic. Conversely, he said, "if you're sitting on a pile of cash and looking to move into the real estate market, it would almost be a no-brainer to just wait for lower prices."' '"We're certainly urging people to error on the side of caution," said Bruce Cran, president of the Consumers' Association of Canada. "If you're paying an amount of money, whatever that might be, that you couldn't sustain if interest rates rose by say 25 or 30 per cent – I can see that being a problem for a lot of people."' 'In the meantime,… Read more »

Densification allows for ever increasing housing supply and downward pressure on rents. but for those in the market for SHFs, available raw land which can be developed easily/profitably has to be decreasing. the best land (profit-wise) is always built on first (hence the phrase: location, location, location). If you look in the papers at the housing section where they have a map of all the new developments, the available supply of new SFHs vary proportinately with the distance from downtown meaning that you have to go further from downtown to find land. ie. if you were a developer looking to build a development or you are in the market for a house on a 1/2 acre. I believe this is Dave's point (which pertains to low density housing).

A realtor acquaintance said sales in the first 9 days were shockingly low. I countered with "statistical significance" just to see the strength of his arguement. He says a couple days maybe, but not this many days. Very interesting conversation, lots of good insight, some real nuggets of wisdom. I see why lots of realtors do blogs, talk shows and things like this. I have to admit he broke my stereotypes of realtors and there are some good bright people out there in the real estate business. You just have to get to know them. I can't wait to see chipmans numbers.

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To those of you that think real estate agents are acting in the best interests of the buyer, I have a story to tell you. My cousin recently listed her apartment in Yaletown (Marinaside) for $739,000. She was offered $710,00 the first day and decided to think about it when the agent called with another offer, but only $685,000 this time. The agent told my cousin she would try to squeeze the people that made the first offer by telling them there was another offer "out there". Of course, agents can't divulge the offer but the implication was clear, it must have been higher. Long story short, the first buyers offered $740,000 and my cousin had a sale. She stills feel somewhat sleazy about it but, hey, that's Vancouver.

thought you guys might like to book mark this

http://www.cba.ca/contents/files/statistics/stat_…

albertas getting close to crisis and i believe will crash first, but you here in vancouver will witness a gargantuan bust also (bigger dollar loss's)

its close now !!

The end of free money

Long-term interest rates – for funding of more than five years – have returned to somewhat normal levels. Last week the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.9%, its highest level since early June.

Played golf this weekend. No doubt the Olympics visitors will love our warm balmy winter, buy up overpriced real estate and the blow out GM sale.

When Vanoc suggested that others would mime to the prerecorded music of our own Symphony Orchestra, I thought that was a no brainer. Having Taiwanese dance group performing during the Olympics will make foreign visitors feel so at home. Yeah best place on earth, world class city and we're so ashamed of our local artists.

GM supplied about 4600 vehicles for the Olympics

not all are SUV's I see a lot of pick up trucks

and some smaller Impalas….. big blow out sale from

GM after the games…..

@Bdk toll: Real rents are definitely NOT rising in Vancouver. So you think that landlords getting 4 or 5 times normal rental income for the monts of February and March 2010 means that real rents in Vancouver have risen? Really?

I'd hate to have an employee with your level of economic acuity.

"Gee, boss, I don't understand it. Real rents in Vancouver had risen about 400-500% since January 2010, I used to get $1500 for that 1-BR in Yaletown, and I rented it out for $6000 in February and March 2010. Now (April 2010) I'm offering it for $1400 and nobody's even inquired about it. I just don't understand. I really thought that real rents in Vancouver had risen. I wish there was some explanation for what I've witnessed, but I'm stumped!"

It will be interesting to see what happens after the olympics are over. Will the supply of unused rentals crash the market? Will shadow inventory flood the market? Will prices hit new glass ceilings and cause buyer fatigue? Will our economy get crowded out by the drug trade and increase tenant risk above Canadian norm? Will the fed stop buying MBS and push up mortgage rates? Will it get audited more closely to see what assets it is actually holding? Will China's growth be sustainable at this rate without stimulus? 2010 will be an interesting year, perhaps even more so than 2008.

98:

"Real estate is a chees game"

————–

A cheese game? WTF now?

Another bubble warning from The Economist, which was spot on with its critique of the global housing bubble in 2005: http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm… For all the panic last year, asset values never quite reached the lows that marked other bear-market bottoms, and now the rally has made several markets look pricey again. In the American housing market, where the crisis started, homes are priced at around fair value on the basis of rental yields, but they are overvalued by almost 30% in Britain and by 50% in Australia, Hong Kong and Spain… Today the prices of many assets are being held up by unsustainable fiscal and monetary stimulus. Something has to give. No mention of Canadian RE, but take a guess where bubble Canada (West, big city Ontario) would place in the above ranking. How do Vancouver's prices compare to say, Seattle,… Read more »