Friday Free-for-all!
The weekend is almost here and spring is in the air! Lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic post. Here are a few links to kick off the discussion:
-The newest winter Olympic event: Foreclosure
-The Cecil’s brass pole to be replaced with a glass tower
-Listings start to grow again
-Canada #9 on ‘quality of life’ index
-Canada #6 for ‘best opportunity for capitol appreciation’
-Update on Canadian credit – not good news
-Toronto commercial real estate sinks
-Global housing bubble comparision
-Getting harder to get an Uncle Sam mortgage
-Landlords getting hosed
-The global debt bomb
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
January 22nd, 2010 at 8:38 am 1
oh yeah slappys! Real BRowntown here! Dracken holding bag on 2004 rentell debockle! cecil disco stick going condo!
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January 22nd, 2010 at 8:43 am 2
Anyway…..
Check out these graphs on page 11.
It's interesting that the graphs for housing prices and employment are identical, with employment lagging by 6 months. Yet more proof that housing IS the economy.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 9:01 am 3
The Froogle Scott Chronicles: Mortgaging Our Souls In Paradise
A serialized account, with numerous anecdotes, at VREAA.
A Vancouver homeowner, fascinated by the personal and social effects of the booming Vancouver RE market, shares his story of buying a house in Vancouver, and the journey that he and his wife have been on since that day in September 2003. In the first episode, we hear the story of the buying itself. Here begins one couple’s multi-faceted experience of this boom…
Episode 1: Greed and Luck
http://tinyurl.com/frooglescott01
Further episodes of The Froogle Scott Chronicles will be posted at regular intervals over the coming weeks.
Please let us know what you think.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 9:14 am 4
There is no snow on Cypress! Whistler is bankrupt! The Olympics are going to be an international disaster! YVR security is out of control. Thousands of tickets for sale on craigslist from scalpers. No one's going to show up.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 9:49 am 5
From comment to: "-Landlords getting hosed there is deflation exisitng right along side inflation."
There's the issue in a nutshell – central banks can induce consumer price inflation but they cannot save asset prices.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:06 am 6
There's a simple way to stop this madness – just tax the gains from real-estate flipping. They do it on every penny responsible citizens make from their measly GIC interest… why not tax real estate investments??? WHY???
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:09 am 7
@Anonymous:
they do, but at 50% of the capital gain.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:24 am 8
patriotz says:
There’s the issue in a nutshell – central banks can induce consumer price inflation but they cannot save asset prices.
not one of your better posts. the last number of months on this blog the primary discussion has revolved around central banks saving asset prices, whether real estate or stocks. we already know you think it's all coming crashing down so try to utilize your knowledge telling us something we don't know.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:42 am 9
Something is off on the house comparison link.
The graphs show that Canada's house price to income ratio is lower than the UK, but when I run the numbers:
332k Avg home price in Canada
61k Avg household income in Canada
Makes a ratio of 5.1 income multiples to house price.
In the UK:
224k Avg home price (in pounds)
52k Avg household income (again in pounds)
Makes a ratio of 4.28
Clearly the UK ratio is LOWER than Canada's but on the graph Britain is around 130 and Canada is below 80 (with the 100 marker set to 1980).
I know it's based on change rather than actual hard numbers but I find it hard to believe and if the numbers are accurate they are obviously misleading.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:43 am 10
"just tax the gains from real-estate flipping."
They alreay do. Flipping a house is, in tax law, "an adventure in the nature of trade" and is taxed at the same rate as ordinary business income.
If you sell a rental property that you have held as a capital asset, only then is the profit from the sale taxed at the lower capital gains rate.
Having said that, we have a self-assessment system. Very few house flippers report their profits as business income and CRA cannot find and audit all the house flippers. If a house flipper plays the audit lottery, they will usually win.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:46 am 11
@Anonymous:
"There’s a simple way to stop this madness – just tax the gains from real-estate flipping."
It is taxed, only primary residences are exempt. The Cons in Ottawa want to make a deferral on the tax if the money is re-invested in 6 months but I can't find a reference to whether they've followed through yet or not.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:50 am 12
@Anonymous:
Not sure exactly what you're trying to say, but the correct answer is that 50% of capital gains (any gains – stocks, RE, etc) is added to taxable income. IE you don't pay 50% tax on the gain. The actual marginal tax rate may be quite small depending on the taxpayer (which may be an individual or a corporation).
In Germany, an additional 15% tax on the whole RE gain is payable, added to the income tax which would also be payable for other gains (e.g. for stocks) . And guess what – there was no bubble in Germany.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:52 am 13
The question is – are people who "trade" assignments aware of the fact that they have to report it?
Do real estate agents tell them about it?
If I make $50 on my GIC my bank sends a statement to the taxman and I have no choice but to pay up. When you sell an assignment to a geater fool does the bank send the same statement to CRA?
I think not…
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:56 am 14
@Drachen:
They haven't. It would amount to a massive giveaway to the rich and especially the super-rich (the vast majority of Canadians never have taxable capital gains in their lifetimes) and it has no chance of passing unless and until the Cons get a majority.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 11:02 am 15
@VRENGD:
Wanna bet? The land titles are online, you know. Easy to write software to troll sales and match the seller against income tax records.
Assignment flips are another issue as they never get recorded on titles, because there is no title until the completion date.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 11:24 am 16
@patriotz:
It depends on which central bank you are talking about. It is not the mandate of the Bank of Canada to manage price stability. However, this is the mandate of the US Federal Reserve.
A central bank can do all sorts of things to increase or support asset prices. We saw a little bit of this occur last year in the US. They have many tools to take that even further.
The Bank of Canada appears to be rethinking the role of only targeting inflation. They are starting to make comments on asset prices and consumer balance sheets. It's possible that they will start taking a more active role in the future.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 12:13 pm 17
"The Bank of Canada appears to be rethinking the role of only targeting inflation. "
hmm their new mandate will probably concern itself with
protecting current RE values so our economy of flipping RE to each other can continue…. it's all good!
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January 22nd, 2010 at 12:38 pm 18
@Dave:
Price stability is in fact the primary goal of the BoC's monetary policy:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/about/do.html
In fact I think the Fed's monetary policy mandate is the one that is broader.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 12:41 pm 19
Dave and Drachen:
Apples and oranges. Why are we talking about BC migration (in and / or out) along with Vancouver / GVRD housing starts? Even if net migration to BC was 0, the GVRD population could increase by 100k if 100k BC people from outside the GVRD moved inside. And housing starts aren't as meaningful as the amount of new housing that comes online – developments can and have been announced, started and then slowed / delayed / canceled. Is there a source of net migration to Vancouver / GVRD AND a source of housing finishes (market and non-market) in the same jurisdiction? Then we can have an argument.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 12:44 pm 20
@Drachen:
The only hole is the one in your head.
NET Migration to BC in 2009 was 58,000 people. That accounts for the number lost to other Provinces. Read your information again.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 12:50 pm 21
@patriotz:
Inflation and price stability are different. Canada targets only inflation. The US targets inflation and price stability.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 1:04 pm 22
@Drachen:
As far as the level of construction prior to this past year (say 2004-2008), all those units were absorbed. What matters is not the past, but the future. Inventory is low right now. We know immigration continues to be strong and keeps growing. We know that construction was down massively through 2009. We know that rental vacancy rates are up only slightly, but remain at very low levels. We know that few rental units were added in 2009 (only 700).
When you add all this together, we could very well be facing a housing crunch over the next few years.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 1:44 pm 23
@Dave:
"Inventory is low right now."
Says who?
I know of no reliable source for unlived-in housing and you're proposing that we should count houses that are UNDER CONSTRUCTION right now as 'lived in' just because they've been purchased (when in fact most of them haven't even been purchased, just the pre-sale options have been purchased).
What matters is how many places there are for people to live, NOT how many properties are for sale, THAT is the kind of inventory that will lead to a housing glut or crunch.
Doesn't make much sense Dave.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 1:49 pm 24
Says MLS.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 2:04 pm 25
I know this is not a popular opinion, but like it or not Vancouver real estate market is driven by Chinese buyers.
I wish I spoke their language so I could read their papers and their blogs to see what the real scoop is. We are trying to figure this out here, but we won't until we understand what their reasoning is for buying grossly overpriced RE in droves and driving this market nuts.
I have no doubt in my mind that they cannot possibly be all stupid or/and unaware of the concept of "value" so perhaps it has to do with a different culture, morality, perception of reality or whatever.
They knew how to make gunpowder ages before the rest of us did, but they used it for fireworks, for crying out loud….
I think to understand Vancouver RE phenomenon we need to understand the asian buyer first. Otherwise, we may as well assume the prices will always go up. And so they will, if the buyers choose so.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 2:20 pm 26
@27 "…I know this is not a popular opinion…" — That's exactly what it is, an opinion. Not fact.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 2:22 pm 27
oh noes. mystery foreign buyers.
this yth has been put to bed so many times on this blog.
time and again the stats show that only a tiny percentage of BC RE is bought by "rich foriegners". NEXT.
*** "the prices will always go up. And so they will, if the buyers choose so. "
- Only if they have unlimited money/credit.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 2:36 pm 28
Gentlemen,
San Francisco, LA, Hawaii, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney… these are the places with highest RE prices and coincidentally highest chinese population as well. I am NOT talking about rich foreigners. I'm talking about chinese-canadians who, at least in Vancouver, Richmond and Burnaby are hardly a minority right now.
Please do yourselves a favor and ask any realtor who is buying right now? can you guess the answer??? I live next to a couple of brand new developments in Burnaby and I do not have to guess. The OVERWHELMING majority are asian buyers and asian realtors.
Sure it is an opinion, but based on facts. Like the fact that an average home in Vancouver will soon be worth a Million dollars and guess what – they are selling. But sure as hell I cannot afford one.
Do they have unlimited money? It seems that way to me.
You guys clearly unserestimate the power of corruption, bribery and neo-communist business practices that made the modern China into what it is today -a friggin' empire, again.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 2:58 pm 29
Well, unless they can magic money from thin air, it wille eventually collapse like the house of cards it is. So why worry? Just sit back, enjoy a drink in this mild thing that some call winter, and wait for them to lose their monies.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 2:59 pm 30
"San Francisco, LA"
———
Have you checked how their markets have been doing lately?
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January 22nd, 2010 at 3:13 pm 31
logic @32
That's because Vancouver is more desirable than San Fran or LA and the percentage of Asians is higher here. I am Chinese Canadian but totally agree with white payer. The majority of buyers of Vancouver SFH are either builders ( building to sell to Asains) or Asians who want to live here.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 3:14 pm 32
@Drachen:
The only hole is the one in your head.
NET Migration to BC in 2009 was 58,000 people. That accounts for the number lost to other Provinces. Read your information again.
************
I hate to admit it, but Dave keeps schooling Drachen. Even when this guy is wrong he cannot admit it…
If this guy really is a sessional instructor I would be fact checking everything that comes out of his mouth. It is really sad that he cannot even understand a simple concept like net migration…
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January 22nd, 2010 at 3:25 pm 33
San Francisco, LA, Hawaii, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney… these are the places with highest RE prices and coincidentally highest chinese population as well.
*****************
San Fran is collapsing, Hawaii is on a strong downward trend, LA markets have been going down for the most part for several years…..
Shanghai and Beijing markets were tumbling in 2008 that is until the government intervened Canada style and fueled a new bubble…..
I wouldn't say there is a "nose for value"…just herd instinct coupled with the desire to have hard assets….
And having a massive re-inflation of a bubble in cities like Shanghai (up 60% in one year) immediately following a significant decline tells me those citizens just don't get it…
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January 22nd, 2010 at 3:32 pm 34
@reader</a@<a href="#comment-62443" rel="nofollow">Dave:
The Consumer Price Index is the metric which the BoC uses to track inflation. CPI measures consumer price inflation by definition. It is meaningless to simply talk about targeting "inflation" without specifying which metric is used.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 3:37 pm 35
Considering housing starts last year nose dived to the worst levels in years, and the bubble was happening before that, and migration hasn't changed, I'm not seeing a huge direct inventory effect re: housing starts.
I do know that vacancy rates in purpose built rentals have gone up in Vancouver. I also know that a bunch of co-ops I know well have had a much higher churn as people leave to purchase; several have experienced unheard of vacancy loss. There is inventory for renting already on the rise.
Inventory for purchase may be more constrained, but I would strongly question any claim making a causal correlation between migration and MLS listings as stand ins for supply and demand – the gestalt of supply and demand for roofs over heads isn't well represented by trading stats.
But finally, inventory or lack thereof doesn't really matter, in the end. What matters is the money people have to put to housing vs. other things.
There is a house I've been following in the West Side that's tripled since 2002. From $500K to 1.5million. If the past were predictive, it'd be 4.5 million by 2018. When RE stops having such an insane appreciation, some people will leave it as a speculative vehicle. Which will cool the market. Which will cause people to leave. Rinse and repeat. Because the cap rates are shitty, and landlording is actual WORK.
Vancouver is a city of average working stiffs with credit cards.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 3:40 pm 36
"San Francisco, LA, Hawaii, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney… these are the places with highest RE prices and coincidentally highest chinese population as well." — Of course we could also name lots of cities with high RE prices without large Chinese populations, so what exactly does this statement prove? There's no cause and effect here.
"I’m talking about chinese-canadians who, at least in Vancouver, Richmond and Burnaby are hardly a minority right now." — You're probably right, in many neighborhoods in Van, Burnaby and Richmond, the Asian population is the majority. A look at Vancouver.ca census info confirms this fact. So it would follow that a majority of the RE transactions are coming from the majority, again what exactly does that prove? So how do you explain Port Moody, Surrey, Abbotsford etc.? They've experienced the same type of price appreciation during this bubble.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 3:58 pm 37
@patriotz:
Yes, the Bank targets CPI, but also Core Inflation.
This speech by Bernanke speaks to the Fed's objective of Price Stability and how it differs from just inflation.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/b…
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January 22nd, 2010 at 4:15 pm 38
@Dave:
"Core inflation" is just CPI without some items that are considered volatile such as energy and food. It's still based on prices. As I said, you have to measure something to get a metric of inflation and in Canada (and everywhere else as far as I know) it's prices.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 9:15 am 39
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/abc-news-senate-leadership-uncertain-if.html
Note the odd coalition opposing Bernanke. Sanders is the only self-described socialist in the Senate. So much for the claims that Bernanke’s (or for that matter Obama’s and Geithner’s) actions amount to “socialism”.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 4:37 pm 40
@Arwen: I'm seeing significant weakness in the rental market too and I expect it will remain weak through the spring. I would expect similar issues across the country. Interest rates are low for a reason.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 4:41 pm 41
@Continuous Burn: A very nice graphic of NET migration for Jul 2009 to Sept 2009
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/mig/mf09_3.pdf
You can see other quarters here
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/pr_pop.asp
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January 22nd, 2010 at 4:41 pm 42
@Dave: Perhaps you would be as good to enlighten us about the difference between price stability and inflation. Without further qualification, your statement is somewhat puzzling because inflation is essentially change in price. So to keep inflation predictable and low would seem to be equivalent to keeping prices stable in the sense that its change is predictable and low. But you must have some other point to make which I am not understanding.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 4:52 pm 43
@Anonymous: It would seem to me that the more relevant figures would be total population growth (including immigration), current unoccupied housing units, and growth in housing units. Anything less than this bespeaks incomplete analysis.
Also relevant are demographics like the expected percentage of FTB because even if the population is growing, it may not yet be at the right FTB segment, in which case the market will fizzle out for want of FTB.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 5:23 pm 44
All this debate is a waste of time. The local RE market began crashing in Spring 2008. After falling 20% the government invervened and the lowest interest rates in history halted the crash and created a mini boom. That is now running out as prices (or, more accurately, buyers' monthly payments)approach the cieling again.
By spring of this year, the aborted crash will resume. And, because there are is no air left with which to inflate or reflate the bubble (rates can only go up), there will be no stopping the crash this time.
If you bought during this min boom, you will regret it and be crying for government hand outs. If you sold during this mini boom, you are fortunate and have a huge chunk of money that will give you crazy buying power in the deflationary times ahead. You will be able to buy back your old house from the sucker you sold it to for 60% less.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 5:43 pm 45
The current housing boom is caused by "credit" inflation and is not sustainable.
The vast majority of housing being purchased is
through generous helpings of mortgage debt.
Wage(push)inflation is practically non existent.
How long can the party continue?
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January 22nd, 2010 at 6:41 pm 46
You guys are very smart with your facts, charts, graphs and scientific explanations. So please explain this to me:
Like a fool that I am I've been following the advice from people like you for the last seven years. Since then, the crazy house prices that seemed ridiculous at the time have doubled.
And they still growing.
Is the crash ever going to come? And even if it does and the prices drop by 50% isn't this going to bring them back to what they were 7 years ago???
Why do you give others false hope?
At least I would have had seven years worth of equity if I bought then.
This is not a game. Not for everyone. Not for me. I just want to buy a place to live…
Damn you bears.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 11:59 am 47
@Dave:
“Housing starts for 2009 were estimated at around 14,400 units. I’m not sure how much housing was removed from inventory, but let’s exclude that for now. We had 58,000 new migrants to the Province. The average household is 2.5 people. Housing demand would therefore be around 23,000 units, which means we were short almost 10,000 units for the year.
So how is rent going to drop again?”
I just noticed another HUGE MASSIVE GAPING hole in this argument.
Yes the in-migration to BC was around 58,000. But during the same time span 54,700 people left!
So the NET migration to BC is a mere 4-5,000 people. Which means 3 houses were started for every person who moved to BC.
Dave Dave Dave, you complete cheater. It’s sad that the more I look at anything you’ve written the more problems I find with it.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 7:02 pm 48
@blueskies:
Wages have been growing at rates above inflation since 2005 and continue to do so despite the recession.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 7:18 pm 49
@observer:
You are correct. My mistake. I meant to say the dual mandate of the Fed is price stability and employment. Price stability and inflation are basically the same thing.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 7:22 pm 50
… Need to create a new filter … One that reduces text size whenever the word 'Dave' comes up. The responses back to him are as painful as the original posts … Stop … Please …
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January 22nd, 2010 at 7:43 pm 51
270 sq ft "micro-lofts" for the downtown eastside:
http://www.vancouversun.com/City+Small+Condos+Mic…
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January 22nd, 2010 at 8:03 pm 52
@Marendra: He has been correct in the majority of what he said here today. Voting down facts doesn't speak well of your side of the discussion
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January 22nd, 2010 at 8:33 pm 53
@observer: That chart includes immigration.
Occupied HH Counts are available here:
BC – http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/famil63c-eng…
Vancouver -http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/famil125g-eng.htm
Total HH Counts are here:
http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/famil55c-eng…
Housing starts are here: http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/manuf05-eng….
Population is here:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/DATA/pop/pop/project…
Based on those links there are 21,506 unoccupied households in BC.
There are on average 35,510 housing starts in BC.
In the last 5 years the average NET migration has been 53,192 persons/year or at 2.5 people per home that is 21,277 homes.
Total population growth is 58,820 per year or 23,528 homes.
So it would seem that there is just under a 1 year supply and we are overbuilding by 50%. Of course this is missing the loss of housing which is a not insignificant number. Any ideas how to calculate it?
The missing factor is population growth
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January 22nd, 2010 at 8:44 pm 54
Don't take Dave's bait.
The guy is pretending to be stupid to get a rise out of you.
It makes him feel good when you reply to his lame and inaccurate statements. He does this to make himself feel good.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 8:53 pm 55
A housing scam.
http://www.examiner.com/x-36530-Vancouver-Governm…
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January 22nd, 2010 at 8:58 pm 56
Anonymous 6:41 – IF you remain patient you will get a far better bargain than any of the bears on here could have predicted in the years past. This thing has ballooned higher than anyone would have believed. The crash will be just as awe-inspiring. Keep saving and you will thank the bears in the end.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 8:59 pm 57
@Dave:
There will be no housing crunch Dave.
Not only has the "official" vacancy rate doubled for "official" rental stock, but there is a glut of non official space sitting empty in the form of secondary suites and condos.
Just go to Craigslist and search "immediately" – as in available immediately – as in sitting empty.
Then check again after the Hellympics.
I'm sure you'll get my drift.
Nice try though.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 9:11 pm 58
@Anonymous:
Then go buy a place, you have my blessing.
I've been bearish since 2006, not 2002 when the bull market started.
Anyone who bought since 2006 will be wiped out.
Please, stop your whining.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 9:19 pm 59
@Just walk away: People who freez the money flow following will happen to them……
1.If Institutions freez the flow:Financial institute will go bankrupt.
2.If people freez the money flow:They will lose their jobs.
@VRENGD:
Interest rates were down all over the world how come only Vancouver real estate went up dummer? Learn from your own posted name it says "Vancouver Real Estate Never Goes Down".-@VRENGD: Alias BDK.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 9:58 pm 60
wow all the wing nuts are coming out of the woodwork!
market inflection?
full moon?
the end times?
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:13 pm 61
Eventually we will run out of Crasians who are willing to part with too much cash. I buy tree my husband buy tree.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:14 pm 62
This headline story of the newest psycho cops beating an innocent guy was on the sale at the Honolulu shopping center I went to today. Good news for the Olympics.
I tell people here how many people in Canada ( with BC leading the stats) are killed by the psycho cop force and they're shocked. Its hard for Canadians to get a grip on the fact, its total denial. There hasn't been a single person murdered by police here in anyones memory, it just doesn't happen, why? Are people spending too much time listening to what Homer Simpson has to say and deciding that theres no hope?
If you rely on the Vanc Sun etc for hard fact, you maybe watching too much TV. I gotta tell ya, if your testicles have dropped and you are still watching cartoons you deserve to get killed by the psycho cops, cause you just ain't paying attention.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vancouver+police…
BTW I watched a doc called 'Disorder in the Courts' which showed a riot that occured by drunken polar bears last year. That didn't make it into the BC local news when it happened. The cops started wrestling people down for drinking in public. I wonder why so much selective information not getting out. What , they don't want to derail the 'best place on earth' propaganda campaign?
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:22 pm 63
#35 BTW, there is no support to the rumour that Hawaii has a disporportionate number of Chinese real estate investors. In fact you rarely see any Chinese people here who haven't been here for five to ten generations. The PRC is a long ways away from the issues here. I'm here now nas even the Japanese contingent is keeping a very low profile.
So who's here? Its still primarily people from California. Lots of retired school teachers from everywhere, and nurses from same. Prices have come down and there are lots of listings. But it is not a Chinese driven market by any stretch. Believe it or not there are plenty of rich white people as well and they dominate the real estate market here. But…. I am hearing a lot of Russian accents, more than ever before.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:27 pm 64
This blog seems to be fueled by seemingly academic idiots who have no sense leaving their somehow affordible bombshelters.
VANCOUVER is an amazing city to live in and the infrastructure we have for everyone to enjoy.
To have and enjoy the wonders of our little part of the Pacific Northwest is incredible.
Did any body on this blog go for a walk today and see wtf they are living and what time of year it is?
We MAY NOT BE LIVING IN THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH but its the best place on earth for ME and my FAMILY!
Real estate prices are high like everything else here in the Lower Mainlnd and always have been comparatively.
My home is my sancuary and getting home at the end of the day to my wife and children is priceless and I will continue to do what I have to do or whatever it costs to sustain my wonderful life.
Yes, it is a dream to own a home in Vancouver(Condo prob not?) and always has been and the unfortunate circumstance for local buyers is that the competition
China 1.3bill
India 1.17 "
Thai 63.3 mill
Japan 127mill
Vietnam 85 mill
Indonesia 231 mill
S Korea 48.3 mill
Just to mention a few countries population also want to own RE Here.
Tough Competition if takes a fraction of a fraction of this # of people who all could afford to buy here.
Vancouvers RE market is a micro dot on the WORLD RE market.
For future potential home buyers waiting for prices to drop 50% good luck because interest rates will have to double and you will be paying more in the future fore your 1/2 price house, so keep blogging for 5-10 more years so you can say I told you so home prices would drop but I still can't afford to buy because of high interest rates.
It will all remain the same because an asian bought the house you could have almost afforded but decided it was to expensive!
FYI Not that they could afford to buy here but the population of HAITI is more than 10mill.
Stop thinking so PROVINCIAL and it may start to make sense why Vancouver RE is so expensive-it is desireable!
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:31 pm 65
Going back to rents: as usual it must boil down to demand and supply. Immigration is NOT higher than it has been in the past. Housing starts ARE higher. This pattern has been consistent for the past 5 years, or more (source: just use the Sauder school data, publicly available — google it!).
In the past this pattern has been associated to big adjustments (downward!) in RE valuation, including full blown crashes (like the early 1980s).
Further corroboration regarding the risks of extended booms is provided by desirable areas in California, where BOTH rent and purchase prices are going down dramatically.
These are facts, not opinions. Dave can post whichever net immigration number he desires, but all you have to do is to go the Sauder business school website and compute demand and supply changes over the past few years.
The question is NOT whether there will be a crash, but when it is going to happen. It is overdue, it could have happened 2 years ago but the CMHC stepped in to save the day. This is not sustainable (wqe must be in year 8 or 9 or continued growth at high rates). This is a hot air ballon that keeps expanding: have a guess, what happens next?
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:46 pm 66
"Interest rates were down all over the world how come only Vancouver real estate went up dummer?"
Too funny. Real estate is up in the entire country, "dummer". Even in a paradise like Winnepeg. There is still a bubble in Australia
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:52 pm 67
So, I could buy this new condo for $560k, or I could rent it for $1600 a month.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1566142…
I don't get it. I like to be able to have the freedom to paint my walls whatever colour I choose, but I don't care *that* much!
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:57 pm 68
"Stop thinking so PROVINCIAL and it may start to make sense why Vancouver RE is so expensive-it is desireable!"
Hillarious! So why did it drop 20% in 2008. I guess that for a year, Van RE really sucked! Then it became good again. You must of been out of town in 2008 because you still think that RE only goes up.
Why do you think the price fluctuates like that? It is because this is a speculative bubble. When you take the air out of it, prices fall. Lower rates, and prices go up.
If prices get too high like in 2008, the bubble collapses unless rates go lower. They went lower and rescued the market. What will they do when prices hit the roof again? Rates are already 0. Then there is no where to go but down.
You have a mortgage. But I've have a big enough bank account from renting that I'll buy a house in cash no matter what rates are. I don't need a mortgage. So when higher rates mean you can't eat out anymore, I'll buy your house from you for cash (but for a lot less than what you payed – sucker!)
Don't think it can happen? Look at:
Florida
Phoenix
Miami
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
All of California
All of Spain
All of Ireland
the UK
Iceland
even Seattle is down hard
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January 22nd, 2010 at 3:58 pm 69
Real estate prices around the world, including Vancouver are being driven by credit expansion. The Chinese are far from being the only ones buying into the market, and that would still not hide the unhealthy growth in mortgage debt. We’ve seen what the market will do when credit is disrupted. And, it will happen again soon.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 11:04 pm 70
Here is how you know when the top is in. Look at what the average monthly payment was in 2008, which was the peak before the 20% crash. That was when people could not pay any more and the market collapsed (until the BOC lowered rates to 0%). That was the cieling for monthly payments.
Now rates are the lowest possible. That means that prices will have to go higher than then were in 2008 to hit the same cieling level of monthly payments. Prices are already higher than 2008. But there is very little room for prices to rise from here.
There is only another two months max of price appriciation before the monthly payment limit is reached. At that point it is 2008 all over again but with no saftey net.
Look out below, bulls. You are in for a big fall.
Remember how scared you were in 2008? Be ready to multiply that by 10.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 11:05 pm 71
@domus:Bush adminstration steped in to save lots of banks still there were more than 100 banks gone bankrupt,Obama Administration changed the plan yesterday but small banks performance went up at the sametime.If intervention can save someone from drowning we should have controled entire earthquake in Haiti.Anyway you had screwd up your entire post by asking that question at the end that's mean you were not sure what were you talking about.
AND
Dave's Immigration and migration numbers are right by gross and by mistake there is difference between net and gross,I confirm his gross and make changes in the net=38,500.Vancouver expected to see similar numbers in gross and net in 2010 it will exceed going forward to 2011 and beyond.
@Anonymous: I like your post and similar question was asked by "LUC" from "MOHICAN" in 2008 and since that day Mohican has changed his website so nobody can dig through it.
Your post is very simple,It tells us that soon we get into the market from fence soon we will become mortgage free,Crash is something that reverse the value for decades to come but for Vancouver real estate rebgv graph does not probe Detroit type of situation.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 11:14 pm 72
Last Sunday I went through an open house in the new Woodwards tower – the suite was a 2-bedroom on the "penthouse" floor (41st floor). Asking price was $960,000 but, according to the realtor, it or its twin, could be rented for $2,000 to $2,500 per month depending on the view. Apparently less that 30% of the building is occupied so pretty well any kind of suite you want in the building is available. The monthly maintenance was over $500 (and slated to rise sharply very soon according to the somewhat desperate salesperson) so anyone buying at that price would have to be brain dead.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 11:25 pm 73
64 North Van Homeloaner
"Real estate prices are high like everything else here in the Lower Mainlnd "
————
Except rents you mean. Oh, and wages.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:02 am 74
@North Van Homeowner:
STFU, you rambling moron.
Nobody wants to pay these asinine prices anymore, the fact you even mentioned Thailand makes you the biggest idiot on the board.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:23 am 75
Informer 10 Says:
January 22nd, 2010 at 11:42 pm
@logic: Rents and wages are to determine if there are equal numbers of houses compare to population, Is everyone able to buy a house? but Vancouver real estate is supported by number of homes and number of people with income to carry it through.
Developer will make more to match exceeding numbers and they will stop making more if numbers stoped.So preety simple that Vancouver real estate is supported fundamentally because our system does not exceed the limit beyond fundamentals.
Why even you bother calling yourself Logic without any gic?
—————
I don't think need to respond in any substantive manner to this semi-literate gibberish.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:54 am 76
@Cynic: It was amusing to see all the frenzied buyers running around last year trying to buy into the market. I now understand some of the mentality that went into tulip mania.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 1:21 am 77
Just picked this on the blog "the Mess that Greenspan Made".
The future of Fannie and Freddie
Wow. Elected officials are really getting carried away in their response to the loss of Ted Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts. There's reform in the air all over the nation's capital, Bloomberg now reporting that Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) is recommending that wards of the state Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be abolished.
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2010…
Now, that's a great piece of news! It will make the CHMC even less defensible by Canadian politicians.
Abolish the CHMC!
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January 23rd, 2010 at 1:24 am 78
Forgot to add the juicest part of the MGM blog report:
Earlier today, a story in the Wall Street Journal indicated that the Government Accounting Office wants to combine Fannie and Freddie's books with the government's books, a move that would cause U.S. deficits and the national debt to rise – maybe a lot.
So much for financial responsibility: this is the government stepping in the RE market and picking up the bill.
The CHMC is, if anything, in even worse shape (in terms of relative liabilities). Write to your MPs! Abolish the CHMC!
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January 23rd, 2010 at 1:30 am 79
Bulls, if you're so smart, why didn't you buy in 2001, sell in 2007 and then buy again in early 2009?
For any fence sitting bears, please by all means, jump in now headfirst and purchase something. You don't want to be priced out forevah do you?
This correction isn't going to happen all by itself. We need the last fence sitters to capitulate.
And of course, the more owners there are, the less renters there are to compete with me. Translation, lower rent for me!
Woo, BUY, BUY, BUY, you sonsofbitches!
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January 23rd, 2010 at 1:43 am 80
Bot, do the people who brought you Woodies ever think you're stupid.
http://www.vancouversun.com/City+Small+Condos+Mic…
270 sq ft micro lofts, oh lordy, the shitty hall cacks must be licking thier chops.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 3:15 am 81
Just finished checking out real estate online in Seattle. Vancouver real estate should be 25% of the current price to make sense. Seattle has higher paying jobs and better quality of life with over half the price.
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January 22nd, 2010 at 11:42 pm 82
@logic: Rents and wages are to determine if there are equal numbers of houses compare to population, Is everyone able to buy a house? but Vancouver real estate is supported by number of homes and number of people with income to carry it through.
Developer will make more to match exceeding numbers and they will stop making more if numbers stoped.So preety simple that Vancouver real estate is supported fundamentally because our system does not exceed the limit beyond fundamentals.
Why even you bother calling yourself Logic without any gic?
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:17 am 83
@domus: Housing starts ARE higher.
To be fair, the average dwelling size has slightly decreased with all the condos being built. However most SFHs have significantly more capacity than even 15 years ago. On balance the average dwelling size has been decreasing but nowhere near the amount to explain the elevated construction numbers.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 9:47 am 84
Anon: "This is not a game"
Well if you listened to what many were saying they didn't say not to buy. They said that IF you buy, be sure you can afford it and not to expect a decent ROI on a cash basis when you sell.
If you "have" to own you're paying spot price. Bears don't "have" to own.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 9:47 am 85
No one HAS to own.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:12 am 86
@rubberduckie:
You can paint the walls in a rental too.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:14 am 87
@Anonymous:
I wasn't bearish on Vancouver RE until 2005 and I don't recall anyone on this board saying they bearish before 2004 (indeed, none of the bear blogs were even around then, which is a good indication of how many bears there were).
So I have to say that the "people like you" are not people like us and please lay off the guilt by association. And perhaps you could fill us in on the reasoning of the circa 2002 bears and what metrics they were using. And if you're talking about Garth Turner, spare us.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:42 am 88
the "how-much-a-month" crowd
will soon be "too-much-a-month" desperadoes
and sales activity will drop off ala circa '08…..
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:51 am 89
"Seattle has… better quality of life…"
Nothing special about Seattle, in my mind.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:51 am 90
@rubberduckie:
That would be a price to rent ratio of 350. In downtown San Diego, you can buy this condo for $240k or rent one for $1395. This ratio is 171… 50% less. VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NOWHERE TO GO BUT DOWN!
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/apa/1566259834…
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090008991-1501_Front_…
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January 23rd, 2010 at 11:05 am 91
@crabman:
Still way too high. Take another 1/3 the price and you're starting to look real.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 11:13 am 92
Compared to Vancouver Seattle is very special because it actually has an economy: Starbucks, Microsoft, Costco, Boeing, are huge global companies, all based around seattle.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 11:32 am 93
Bears will always be bears!
They will, they can and chose to be!
They will never OWN!
That is OK because like everywhere else Vancouver needs renters!
You can pay now or pay more later.
The longer you wait?
Who knows, maybe after the Olympics you will be able to purchase your dream Waterfront Condo for $50K!
HaHaHaHaHaHa Good luck and enjoy paying your Asian owners Mortgage!
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January 23rd, 2010 at 11:54 am 94
"MORTGAGE" the term means pay for your house during the gaged term of your life.
Go ahead and rent and answer to your children why they have to anti up to pay for you funeral?
The bears have a problem with this in that they want to pay cash for their home.
That would be Fantastic!
The largest amount of wealth in anybody's life has been created through Real Estate!
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:11 pm 95
@crabman: What about your neighbour who can't afford 1395 but only 900 and what about neighbour next to him who can afford to pay 2000.
buying and renting is a choice by sliding next to next neighbourhood it has nothing to do with real estate up's and down's.
Tenants can chose to move next to next neighbourhood unless they reach up to last stop and that is street likewise of hasting following laneway housing.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:11 pm 96
"Go ahead and rent and answer to your children why they have to anti up to pay for you funeral?"
What they heck is this guy talking about?
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:12 pm 97
Hi folks, your good friend Boog Rennie here. In line with good friend North Van Homeowner, I guarentee you that prices will continue to rise, so that the rent you stupid idiot bears are paying now will not even cover operating expenses, let alone interst on the mortgage. You stupid idiot bears keep paying for my property taxes, insurance and repairs and maintenance; I pay the mortgage while waiting for the next highest bidder to come along, a rich foreigner from Thailand probably.
Van Home Owner, I know you are a troll but if the Asian comes in and buys the house I happily rent now, my rent will not even go close to paying his mortgage, hell 7 months of rent go to property taxes, insurance, manager and R&M. The remaining 5 will probably service a bit of the interst obligation in the mortgage. But hey, prices always go up, so stupid me I guess.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:12 pm 98
"Go ahead and rent and answer to your children why they have to anti up to pay for you funeral?"
What the heck is this guy talking about? I think he is hysterical.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:31 pm 99
@Keith in Calgary: I had the walls painted in my rental shortly after I moved in. I guess the difference between owning and renting is that the landlord paid for the paint in my case.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:35 pm 100
@rubberduckie: Nice comparable! Similar to my post above, the difference between owning and renting that suite (asides from the cost difference) is that the renter gets 'free cable and internet for a year'. Gosh the rental market must be really hot!
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:38 pm 101
Only chinese families looking to immigrate to Vancouver
will be crazy enough to go into the market. But this was in vogue only 10 years ago. Now a'days in Shanghai or beijing there are resort like facilities for a fraction of the price without the taxes.
You would also need to be incredibly wealthy to a point that you can throw money away and even as big as China is there are only a few people that are that stupid and wealthy unless they are money laundering but hey I can put my money elsewhere without the high taxes why Vancouver real estate. I have come to the conclusion that even the people int he drug trade aren't that stupid with the infalted prices.
From an investing standpoint Vancouver would be one of the last places for a chinese buyer at the moment:
a) they don't need to pay the capital gains taxes in China. and funny enough corrupt officals or business refugees are actually encouraged by the Canadian government to invest in Canada, so much for hypocricy.
b)The canadian dollar is also mighty strong, in North America I would look seriously in Miami Phoenix, areas that in the long term.
Vancouvers outrageous property prices are fueled by outrageously low interest rates but what the goverment is doing is unsustainable. Canada just doesn't have the industry to compete with it's neighbours.
The only unique attraction in BC is whistler and that's if you ski. It doesn't have anything that truly is accessible to a regular tourist that is eye opening in the core, that's why after the big hype in the Olympics, we could end up with Sydney 2000 part 2.
Don't get me wrong Vancouver can also be appreciated for its simplicity great for bringing up a family but it doesn't make sense for any of the highrollers or investors.
A bubble would actually help Canada but the worst thing will be a long term depression that would kill the economy and morale. I don't think there will be another Olympics to save Vancouver and there aren't enough churches around either.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:49 pm 102
Layoffs at city hall:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+ci…
Whistler bankrupt, teachers laid off: I thought we were supposed to wait until AFTER the Olympics to go broke….sheesh, this city can't do ANYTHING right!
Or maybe they just decided to get a head start. Maybe we should change our motto from "Best Place on Earth" to "Late for today, early for tomorrow!"
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January 23rd, 2010 at 12:52 pm 103
@VRENGD: Vancouver spread the seeds to entire Canada because China,India,and Iran feel safe to invest here because our building(CODES)standards are earthquake and tsunami friendly along with worlds best friendly people of Canada. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj4A2zJ8G3c&fe…
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January 23rd, 2010 at 1:11 pm 104
I love the new illiterate trolls. So funny.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 1:57 pm 105
#86 patriotz, I felt prices were rising not do to fundamentals but emotion as early as the frenzy of 2002-2003. But technically I was bullish as I didn't truly understand how bubbles correct at the time. But I was bearish on living in Vancouver as I figured it didn't matter if prices remained high. It had become a city where there was no future.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 2:07 pm 106
beware rich Haitians are coming to buy
all our property cause they want to live
in an earthquake free zone……
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January 23rd, 2010 at 4:58 pm 107
are they brining voodoo zombies?
maybe voodoo can keep the RE market afloat? Bob? Bob?
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January 23rd, 2010 at 5:13 pm 108
Misery loves company!
This blog is full of losers actually calling down Vancouver as a sh%# hole.
Keep on Renting!!!
Move to Haiti where RE is virtually Free, probably no taxes, public school system?
You single basement dwellers could probably get some action and live there well on your Canadian welfare cheque.
PEACE OUT!
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January 23rd, 2010 at 5:51 pm 109
"This blog is full of losers actually calling down Vancouver as a sh%# hole."
————-
Err, who is calling Van a shithole? We choose to live here, no? We are saying prices are overprived for the nature of the city. Are you too retarded to get that? Seems so. Happy trolling NorthVan/Browntown.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 5:52 pm 110
#107 Are you upset, just got your foreclosure notice ha.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 7:35 pm 111
@other ted:
I have to say I thought Vancouver was getting overpriced by 2004 for the same reasons, but the city being what it is I thought prices weren't likely to fall from that level, at least nominally, so I wasn't really a bear. Only in 2005 did I think a nominal decline was inevitable after reading the landmark Economist article and the US blogs and taking a hard look at the numbers.
But now that we can see what an overleveraged house of cards this city and province have become (actually worse than the US in aggregate overvaluation), I wonder how low the bottom will be when it all comes tumbling down.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 9:52 pm 112
patriotz, when you voted for Campbell's Liberals, little did you suspect that HST is coming. Never be too sure of anything wrt real estate, because it is a bonafide ponzi system that'll stay afloat long after we are dead.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:21 pm 113
“Seattle has… better quality of life…”
Nothing special about Seattle, in my mind.
ReplyCurrent score: -7
Why the low score? We owe Seattle something?
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:24 pm 114
"Compared to Vancouver Seattle is very special because it actually has an economy: Starbucks, Microsoft, Costco, Boeing, are huge global companies, all based around seattle"
R U nutz?
Seattle is a dump compared to Vancouver.
It tries so hard to be "trendytown"; however, it's just another American city.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:26 pm 115
@North Van Homeowner:
You cheerleaders are completely useless and worthless, like mosquitoes and cockroaches.
What shall we do with you all after the crash?
Burn you for fuel?
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January 23rd, 2010 at 10:28 pm 116
"Current score: 1"
So there.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 11:10 pm 117
#114 @bestplaceonmeth: What a waste. They generate hot air much more efficiently on their own.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 11:12 pm 118
Shanghai and Beijing markets are exploding.
Why the hell would rich Chinese want to buy here?
They can make double the money over there compared to here.
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January 23rd, 2010 at 11:49 pm 119
The rich asian immigrants might exist (and be net house buyers) but they are far from being the reason for the current boom.
This boom is completely 'homemade': the ingredients for this delicious meal are: (a) extra-low interest rates; (b) a collective infatuation based on the conviction of many that RE valuations can only go up.
Notice that (b) is a self-fulfilling mechanism (until we hit the affordability wall).
Given (a) and (b), local people (yes, mostly Canadians — no need to blame the foreigners) of all ages buy because: (1) they are scared of being priced out; (2) they think they will get rich by investing in real estate. Probably (1) is more common for young people.
When will this end? Timing is futile: all I know is that, like countless episodes before, this also will end. And, given the proportions of the bubble, this crash will be nothing short of spectacular.
Oh, almost forgot to add my signature….abolish the CHMC!
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January 24th, 2010 at 12:08 am 120
"They can make double the money over there compared to here"
They also need to spend it somewhere,They need to exchange pictures through Black Berry Storm2 also need apple i pod to download songs.Asian people love to watch concert Micheal Jackson had more fans in asia than in Usa or North America.Asain people also like pubs. it is difficult to explore stuff in asia the way it is being display in Vancouver.In Asia rich people pay weekly-bi-weekly ransom to get their life spared from bad people In Canada it is hard to figure out who is rich and who is poor because Asain housing and blocks system is an open concept you can ask about any person within 10 miles that same person can take you to the place or person he or she want to visit. For all the entertainments,education,beauty,rights,security purpose they need a place to live,Owning a place makes them feel proud instead of renting.Owning a place is a passion for them,Even if parents don't want to leave their homes they beg for better future for their childrens,Better life.
China and India have cool relationship with Canada it doesn't work properly when it comes to Usa.Majority of Indian,Chinese and Arabians does not feel comfortable with bk colour.This shirt is hardly being seen in Canada.Life in Canada is hassel free compare to Usa and Uk.USA Immigration laws are tough Canadian Immigration laws are polite.It takes 6 months to 5 year to get into Canada and It takes 3 to 10 year to get into Usa.After 5 to 10 year of strugle what you get in Usa people find themself getting hossed with illegal immigrants from MMMeeexxxiiicccooo.So why not get into Canada and visit USA and UK for vacation purpose?
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January 24th, 2010 at 1:16 am 121
Dear retard:
"For all the entertainments,education,beauty,rights,security purpose they need a place to live,"
===================
Which one can rent.
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January 24th, 2010 at 4:36 am 122
@robin:
Wow, a psychic.
How I vote is my business, but I'm on record on this blog as supporting the HST and in fact I think it should have been brought in along with the GST in 1990.
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January 24th, 2010 at 5:03 am 123
@Boombust:
A dump you say? Here's what 530K gets you in a trendy neighbourhood near the U of Washington (like Dunbar). What will 530K get you in Vancouver? Which city is the "dump"?
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4529-1st-Ave-NE-…
You mean you think Seattle is pretentious? Like they're always calling it a "world class city" and they put "The Best Place on Earth" on the license plates? Let me tell you – when you're the home town of Bill Gates, you don't have to.
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January 24th, 2010 at 7:53 am 124
http://tinyurl.com/kits-financial-facelift
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January 24th, 2010 at 8:31 am 125
@patriotz:
Some other numbers that jump out from that listing:
Yes folks, $183/square foot of living space. And in Vancouver people are paying over 3 times that for a condo with no land value?
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January 24th, 2010 at 9:50 am 126
@loo-poo:They chose to own a place between owning and renting.I have told you from an open concept housing cultural society , people know each other in miles of distance,Any tenant here from asian origin will lose their prestige incase if some one report their living status to their neighbourhood back in Asia.Even people with low income who rent a place here they also keep a dream to buy home.They never think of prices to come down,They always like to strugle to reach upto that height where they can manage a house somehow,Paying mortgage is better than paying Ransom,Physical molestation,There are lots of other beatiful things in Asia people who live here they just spend their life talking about their cultures and festivals unless memories fade away with "D".
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January 24th, 2010 at 10:07 am 127
@Informer 10:
Like a mortgage isn't a ransom? "Pay us for 35 years or we will take your house" kind of sounds like a ransom to me. The word means "death pledge" you know.
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January 24th, 2010 at 10:08 am 128
@Informer 10: "hey always like to strugle to reach upto that height where they can manage a house somehow"
Yet 30% of the Vancouver area rents and we know a lot of the landlords were born in Asia. If they attach such a stigma to renting, it seems odd they would invest in something relying on… rent.
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January 24th, 2010 at 10:21 am 129
Mortgage is a term that people chose to meet their desire,Term could be reduced or eliminated as soon money becomes available.In other case a mortgagee can pay upto 15% of mortgage amount every year so 35 or 20yr term stand for nothing if you have chance to increase your income through lots of source like basement suite downstair,change in marital status,If growing child joining workforce,Promotion on the job etc.
Ransom is something that is being taken by force against your wish,Most of bussiness comunities over there pay that on daily basis even there is a collision between multi parties some bussinessmens end up paying to multi parties to keep their family safe,Then know body knows where that money goes.
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January 24th, 2010 at 10:39 am 130
define freedom:
1. 30 day notice to your landlord
or
2. 35 year mortgage to your banker
choose wisely…..
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January 24th, 2010 at 10:48 am 131
Thanks Patriotz for sticking up for my city of Seattle:)
Both cities are beautiful.
Most Seattleites think our own house prices are out of control. I can't even start to describe what we think about Vancouver prices. I have a hobby of watching the prices around here because I just couldn't believe what the 30-40ish crowds were paying for houses starting a couple years ago here in Seattle area. (Myself in the 50ish range)
Here is another house for sale that I think is prettier than the one you described and in a nice neighborhood near the University.
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2023-24th-Ave-E-…
Beds: 5
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 3,060
$/Sq. Ft.: $180
Lot Size: 4,468 Sq. Ft.
Wallingford (the neighbourhood you chose) is stereotyped as more hippyish….like your Kitsalano in the 70s….without the beach of course. The house below is in Montlake, just south of the University and more similar to your more expensive areas of Dunbar.
One big difference I notice between Seattle and Vancouver is that going East in Seattle to Bellevue, Issaquah, etc can mean more expensive, nicer if not snobbier, neighborhoods. In Vancouver, if I am correct to believe……the farther east you go……Maple Ridge, Abbotsford, etc., the less prestige in neighbourhoods.
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January 24th, 2010 at 11:02 am 132
The Eastside here (Bellevue, Issaquah, Redmond,etc) may have higher home prices because of Bill Gates and that little business of his in Redmond.
Maybe that is what you Vancouverites need to do. Get a few of your millionaires ( isn't everyone a millionaire in Vancouver at those home prices?) to move out east to let's say that place called Chilliwack. I have to admit I love that name……. Maybe that Bob Rennie guy you are all referencing could start a trend. He could build his mansion out there and then everyone who is anyone would want to follow? Maybe that would take the pressure off your Vancouver prices at bit.
I guess you might need some sort of businesses to support that too In the Chilliwack area…what do you guys do, or build, or manufacture in Vancouver anyhow?
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January 24th, 2010 at 11:05 am 133
Hello Dear VancouverCondoInfo-ites,
We are noticing a steady and noticeable increase in the amount of bulls visiting the bear cave. Many of them with extremely poor understanding of the word 'paragraph'.
They do have a good command of the foul mouth LOL…
I am trying to remember, please help me with this… When was it that we last witnessed such a surge? Might it be circa November 2008? Is it possible that the appearance of angry bulls here is s a sign of the end?
The Olympics are certainly starting to look as we predicted eons ago… LOL, bankrupt mountain, no snow…
I think it was no-lympics who said "If you liked the fast-cats fiasco, you're gonna love the olympics".
Best regards
arit
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January 24th, 2010 at 11:11 am 134
Please excuse my american ignorance about your Vancouver economy in the above post. I will tell you how I support your ecomony when I come to visit.
There are a few things that I can ONLY get in from my trips to visit your beautiful city. That would be the following in order of importance to me and my kids;)
Purdy's chocolates
Cheese Whiz
Alphabet cereal
Bulk foods from Save on
Last but not least…perogies by the box at your Costco.
Thanks for those!
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January 24th, 2010 at 11:12 am 135
@shannon:
The problem is you couldn't convince anyone with money to move to Chilliwack, it's not a very nice place. All the smog from Vancouver blows up the valley, summers are hotter and winters are colder.
"what do you guys do, or build, or manufacture in Vancouver anyhow?"
We have 1-800-GOT-JUNK! Ha, they're way bigger than Micro… Microsquish is that the name? Something plush and furry sounding… We also have Robeez (well it's US owned now, but it WAS a locally owned company). EA, which would be a lot cooler if they weren't downsizing so dramatically right now…
Hmm that's about it I guess.
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January 24th, 2010 at 11:52 am 136
Shannon:
We have BC Bud…..
apparently many Americans covet this product
makes for a robust economy
but it's hard to tell what with
the smoke and all…….
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January 24th, 2010 at 12:08 pm 137
I'm just thankful there are so many loser broke ass real estate bears to pay the rent on my investments and make me rich. Keep bitching you losers!!! I need a new lambo!
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January 24th, 2010 at 12:15 pm 138
seattle vs. vancouver: elasticity of demand is the key difference, if vancouver became part of the usa a 10-30% plunge would occur in short order. in a nutshell a lot of demand would be willing to flow south that isn't willing to flow east.
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January 24th, 2010 at 12:23 pm 139
@shannon:
I think people from Vancouver see Seattle as less attractive because downtown Seattle is arguably less atrractive than DT Vancouver, and of course that's the part of the city that visitors see the most of. Seattle is also farther from the mountains which makes it less attractive in the "big picture".
But if you go down to the neighbourhood level, like in the houses posted above, I think Seattle is far more attractive. There are many more tasteful renovations of older houses and far, far, fewer of the ugly monstrosities that have infested Vancouver over the past decades.
And that's before you look at the price difference. And note that mortgages are tax deductible in the US, Washington has no state income tax, and you can lock in your mortgage rate for the whole amortization, which makes the same purchase price more affordable than it would be in Vancouver. But Seattle is still overpriced, just not insanely so. No US market is any more.
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January 24th, 2010 at 12:27 pm 140
Looking at the listings post for Seattle. It seems my web browser must be off because it's showing the prices in a currency that must be English pounds.
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January 24th, 2010 at 12:45 pm 141
News on unemployment get stifled on the run up to the Oy Oy Oy, but a ray of hope for the truth seekes crept out of the Times Colonist this am showing that EI stats are still surging ahead. Double in 12 months.
http://www.timescolonist.com/technology/numbers+d…
But all good news in Vanshitstain eh? ya right. Whers the effing truth? No one knows and the general pop don't seem to care.
Nope we get lost in the euphoria of MMA at the RiverRock Casino yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehahhhhhhhhhhhhh!
Yup why not live vicariously through a punch up when the boss is on yer ass, your wife has gained fifty, the mortgage payment is strangling, some asshole just cut you off without understanding how much respect you crave inside your car lease-mobile.
But reality, no dude, thats just tooooooo wierd.
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January 24th, 2010 at 12:48 pm 142
#136 RA, "Oh please mommoy, buy me a lambo, I'll hold my breath and shit my bed until you buy me a car Wahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
What a dipshit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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January 24th, 2010 at 2:20 pm 143
RE: Kits financial facelift.
I'm continually surprised at how many baby boomers have mortgages at 60 plus years of age. Anyone one else find this a bit strange? In the past, it was always desirable to pay off that mortgage, before retirement. Now it doesn't seem to be a problem for those approaching retirement to have mortgages. But I guess a lot of these boomers are expecting to be able to sell the house and make a fortune and retire in comfort. I guess we shall see in the near future is this will be the case.
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January 24th, 2010 at 2:44 pm 144
#122 @patriotz: +100
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January 24th, 2010 at 2:47 pm 145
#131 @shannon: "what do you guys do, or build, or manufacture in Vancouver anyhow?"
Delusion?
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January 24th, 2010 at 2:51 pm 146
@pricedoutfornow:
Oh you're absolutely right about those expectations. Remember also that a very large number of boomers have no employer pensions and little in RRSP's, so they're going to have to sell just to maintain their current lifestyles.
Just one little problem – there aren't nearly enough people in younger generations with good enough salaries to buy all those houses at the prices they expect.
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January 24th, 2010 at 3:31 pm 147
Lordy some of you are so out of touch with what's really going on in our real estate scene. Many of the 2-3M$ properties are owned by 30-40 something not boomers. Besides boomers can't flip their one and only homes even if they decide to flip in to their graves in advance. Open your eyes, Vancouver #1 medalion realtor is Winnie Chung again. Just because you are monolingual, you can't shut off the news in other communities.
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January 24th, 2010 at 6:04 pm 148
Two things at VREAA
a) Vancouver RE as Cult. Great comment from 'junius' at greaterfool.ca, archived here:
http://tinyurl.com/ycpsvck
b) Kits facelift archived:
http://tinyurl.com/y9p2fb2
Comment:
BC is on the cusp of the Boomer Retirement Years. The number of people turning 65 in any given year is about to almost double. A large number of those boomers are overdependent on RE for retirement funds, and will have to sell. This will result in a significant increase in RE supply and will apply downward pressure to prices. Falling prices may in turn increase the rate of retirees cashing out, as they see their retirement funds (aka market value of home) dwindling. Here is an anecdote from a boomer, reproduced in full because of its crucial relevance to the Vancouver RE market. -vreaa
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January 24th, 2010 at 6:35 pm 149
"I think people from Vancouver see Seattle as less attractive because downtown Seattle is arguably less atrractive than DT Vancouver:
Exactly. With an ugly waterfront freeway AND the I-5.
We almost were as stupid during the 60's. I remember they were going to do the same here.
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January 24th, 2010 at 6:35 pm 150
@vreaa:
Great stuff. But take a look at what the article says, and more importantly does not say:
This 61 year old woman will still have a mortgage on her house with payments of about $1500/month in four years? How did this happen? She was in a prime position to buy in the mid-80's and should have easily paid off the mortgage by 2000. Has she been trading up, i.e. speculating on her own residence? Or has she refinanced for living expenses?
Except the obvious one: SELL NOW. “A 100-per-cent equity portfolio is inappropriate for a 61-year-old woman nearing retirement with limited resources.” Like trying to hold on to a mortgaged house which she could easily sell for over a million dollars is appropriate?
How many Ruths are out there?
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January 24th, 2010 at 8:44 pm 151
It would be nice if the last post was at the top so I didn't have to scroll through 100's of messages
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January 24th, 2010 at 8:51 pm 152
Hi Wilma,
Please see the little key on your keyboard , a bit to the right of "backspace", where it says "End"…
And "Home" brings you back to the top.
You can also use "Page Up" and "Page Down" instead of scrolling.
Best regards
arit
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January 24th, 2010 at 9:06 pm 153
@North Van Homeowner:
This blog seems to be fueled by seemingly academic idiots who have no sense leaving their somehow affordible bombshelters bla, bla, bla..
^^^^^^^^^^^
Isn't it ironic? If Vancouver had a way to filter out mindless hyper-dorks like this moron, the best place on earth moniker might have a little more cred.
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January 25th, 2010 at 12:46 am 154
As a former resident of both cities, I have to say that Seattle is way underrated compared to Vancouver. Most Vancouverites only go to Seattle for shopping, and really have not seen the city.
Seattle is way more diverse in terms of interesting neighborhoods, housing, green space, scenery (lots and lots of waterfront), economy, culture, and people. (Vancouver is really mostly Asians).
I'd take Seattle any day.
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January 25th, 2010 at 1:44 am 155
@Continuous Burn:
San Fran is collapsing? Oh god, you must have your head in your ass. You are so clueless. Prices are still going up.
As for those hoping for the Olympics to crash, you people are stupid. This is one of the greatest events in the world and we should all embrace whether you like it or not. All you people care about is your own interest and your pocket change hoping for a crash so you can buy a property. You know it won't happen, might as well join the party.
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January 25th, 2010 at 1:45 am 156
@Rick:
You'd take Seattle any day? Ok, see ya later, fool.
Seattle's a dump. I lived there for 2 years.
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January 25th, 2010 at 1:51 am 157
I think that Seattle is a very nice city.
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January 25th, 2010 at 9:23 am 158
Ummm – superlittleboy – take a look at the stats and where the market has gone over the past few years. The market speaks for itself.
Superlittleboy, why is it that you always get schooled by a couple of posters and then you retreat back to your parent's basement for a few days? Do you really think that people forget the background information that you have posted?
You consistently get called out on the fact that you do not own, that you live with your parents, that you have a sub par job, and that you have no worldy experience.
So please, from this point forward, never:
* say you actually own
* compare yourself to "basement dwelling" renters (unless you aknowledge that you are a basmemet dweller renting from your parents)
* say you have a great job
* say you have travelled anywhere farther than your local dim sum hangout
Give it up Superlittleboy….
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January 25th, 2010 at 5:51 pm 159
Suprafanboy, which area in Seattle did you actually live in? Visiting the Outlet mall doesn't count.
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