Micro Condos for Vancouver
Now that the W has revitalized the Downtown Eastside, eliminating the scourge of homeless, drug addicts, panhandlers and prostitutes there’s just one more bold step to complete this neighborhoods transformation: 270 sq foot micro condos.
For those keeping track, that’s the size of two parking spots. You can tell your grandkids about the good ol’ days when your family lived in a spacious 450sq foot condo.
John Stovell, general manager of Reliance Properties, said there’s a strong need for more affordable rental units in the downtown area.
“So many people contact us, not with a specific size they want, or specific amenities, but they tell us where they want to be in the neighbourhood and how much they can pay. So often that amount is just not achievable for anything but a very specialized product like this,” he said.
“By cutting away the non-essentials, that is the only way to get to that price-point in Vancouver,” he said.
January 27th, 2010 at 7:38 am 1
"Hey baby, you wanna come back to my…micro bachelor pad?" I'm sorry but that line just won't do the job.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 8:13 am 2
wheres the toilet ? next to the micro-fridge or what
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 8:54 am 3
This can't be real. It must be some sort of performance art piece, right? Social commentary, like proposing dumpster reno's for homeless shelters?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 8:58 am 4
Once can assume that they did market research and determined that there is a demand for this product.
How is buying a micro condo better than renting the average west side basement suite (which is on average probably 3 times bigger)?
This project is a demonstration of the hieght of delusion in Vancouver. This is a hallmark of a manic market.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 8:59 am 5
The units will be bought by small time speculators (who are now obviously priced out of speculating on normal sized condos.) They will be rented at a loss to poorer people and the neighborhood will becmone the next downtown slum.
I wonder what will happen to the property values of adjacent neighbourhoods? If you rent in an adjacent neighbourhood, no problem, give 30 days notice and move. If you own, then too bad, sucker.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 9:08 am 6
@VRENGD:
Next?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 9:38 am 7
@VRENGD:
Actually, it's a purpose-built rental – or so they claim:
The typical return (cap rate or net yield) expected on rental property by REIT's and other investors is 8%, not 6%.
Something is wrong with this picture. I think there is some Plan B in the cards, such as unloading the whole building to the government for social housing (or getting a subsidy for rentals), or doing a condo conversion for sale to the public, if the units aren't strata titled already.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 10:05 am 8
Rosenburg says BoC interest rate hike unlikely:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inv…
I think it's time for the bears to give up. They are never going to reign this thing in, the government and BoC know they must inflate or die.
Markets always revert to the mean, so if houses are 2-3x too expensive that just means they will inflate until the price of everything else rises 2-3x. They will never let prices go down.
I don't like what this would mean for economy for the next decade or two. If they don't raise the rates in June I'm dumping the currency.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 10:12 am 9
@rp:
General price level cannot be inflated 2 or 3 times: politically impossible to support. Imagine what would happen to the real value of baby-boomers' savings? They would be wiped out. More likely a slow but persistent increase in average inflation.
Of course the best course of action is to accept short term pain and let nominal prices adjust downward: but we know that politicians won't do it, too worried about re-election.
By the way, for a few days new listings have been really high. Anyone knows what is going on, has hard data?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 10:48 am 10
@domus:
I don’t buy it! Who exactly do the politicians have to be afraid of? If rates go up, house prices fall – a little in most of the country, a lot in a few places – some people lose their overpriced speculations, and everybody else acclimatized to the notion that they’re going to be living in their house for a while. There doesn’t have to be any pain for most people – just the moron speculators – and do you think they’ll get sympathy from anybody?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 10:59 am 11
@Slim:
The "pain" is the destruction of the illusion of wealth that established homeowners have been enjoying. Many of them have not been saving adequately for their retirements because they have been planning on selling their house for a huge sum. For many of them it will be too late to start.
And most of them will not get that it was an illusion all along. We have been seeing this in the US on many fronts – even someone like Bob Herbert of the NYT, who ought to know better, thinks falling house prices are a problem, not the solution.
And guess what has pushed Brangelina off the Yahoo home page:
http://m.ca.yahoo.com/
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 11:02 am 12
"Something is wrong with this picture."
It's strange that they would be expecting a lower cap rate yet think it's a good investment. There is definitely something else going on and I'm not ruling out blatant stupidity as an explanation.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 11:25 am 13
patriotz Says:
January 27th, 2010 at 9:08 am
@VRENGD:
They will be rented at a loss to poorer people and the neighborhood will becmone the next downtown slum.
Next?
——————–
Exactly – I would not live down there is you gave me a place for free.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 11:28 am 14
@domus:
Increased inflation only supports house prices if wages outpace CPI. Remember increased inflation inevitably results in increased interest rates.
That worked back in the 70's when we had things called "manufacturing" and "unions" and the labour participation rate was growing rapidly. Anyone who thinks it will work going forward from today is deluded.
The course which leads to the least political and economic damage going forward is near-zero positive inflation, and the BoC and the politicians know this full well.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 11:41 am 15
Oops. I appear to have had my facts wrong. These micro-condos are simply going to up-slum the existing slum on the DTES.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 11:55 am 16
"Canada resale home price index up for 7th month"-.Teranet.
OR
"up for two thousands and tenth year through history of planet tenth". because hey @VRENGD:
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 12:26 pm 17
@patriotz:
I agree, not trying to suggest otherwise: if they push up inflation, long-term rates will go up and so will mortgages. House prices down.
If they keep inflation down, it means restricting money printing and credit therefore, again, house prices down.
There is no getting around the final result: there is no way these crazy prices for housing can be supported any longer.
I am not so sure politicians know that zero inflation is their best course of action. You seem very optimistic.
Not sure what would happen in terms of inflation. I know that in all scenarios there will be a drop in RE valuations. If the bulls have alternatives I have missed, I am eager to listen. But they must provide sound reasoning and hard facts.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 12:42 pm 18
@domus:
The politicians in power in Ottawa (and in most provinces) are the same people who have been actively working to diminish the pricing power of labour over the past decades. If anyone knows that wages will not be able to outpace inflation, it's them, and if wages cannot outpace inflation, inflation cannot support house prices. Period.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 12:45 pm 19
Anyone check out Garth’s “predictions” yesterday?
What a sham that guy is. After a 20% increase in prices nationally, he predicts a 15% decline. But lets not forget the fact that he predicted the same 15% in 2008 prior to the 20% increase. What a pansy.
Why bother writing anything at all. A 15% pull back is not even noteworthy.
Instead of “After the Crash,” maybe his next book can be “Real Estate Armegedon” where he note that prices will drop 5% in 2020 and outlines how you can profit from this “dire” event.
Too funny…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 12:49 pm 20
I do not think that people realize that 270 sq feet was previously deemed as non-livable space by provincial guidelines. The minimum space requirements, outlined in discussions on affordable housing strategies, identify a much bigger number.
It is funny how concepts of “liveable space” get altered when there are profits to be made.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 12:51 pm 21
From the story – "…need for more affordable rental units in the downtown area"
These are not condos for purchasing – they are rental units. Stop saying they are for potential purchasers
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 12:56 pm 22
Ahhhh…you can almost taste the disbelief and disappointment by Garth's faithful blog dogs today.
He has the “dire” prediction of a 15% correction (no longer a crash) nationally? That is after a 20% ramp up in prices nationally in one year? And he still only predict a 15% decline despite predicting a 10-15% decline in 2008?
Oh no, look out below! That is nothing but a minor event, unworthy of discussion, as it will simply catch a couple of subpar mortgage holders. No collapse, no US style foreclosures – life will carry on as usual. Meanwhile, the rest of RE holders have enjoyed unprecedented gains wile those sitting on the sidelines have wasted 2 years of rent and grief waiting for that “big” correction.
This is simply too funny. I think people are starting to appreciate that the term “greaterfool” doesn’t apply to people that bought in the last 2 years, but rather, to people that sidelined it and shelled out money on his book that outlines a non-event.
Why both writing at all. It is like writing a stock newsletter saying that there might be a minor pullback in a SP prior to its stabilization and/or further increase. Big deal.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 1:11 pm 23
@Continuous Burn:
Instead of paying attention to the people who have been wrong in the past (and Garth has been wrong in spades) why not pay attention to the people who have been right?
Every US commentator who correctly predicted the US bust and who has looked at the current situation in Canada has predicted the same outcome here, for the same reasons – excessive price/income and price/rent.
As Robert Shiller ("Mr. Bubble", who was right about the dot-com and US housing bubbles) memorably put it:
That was said in 2005 – and guess what, he was right.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 1:20 pm 24
^^^^
2005…and here it is 2010..and no bubble bursting…maybe in another 5 or 10 years
interesting to see even hardcore bears capitulate and realize things are not going to go down significantly if at all
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 1:24 pm 25
The bubble will continue unabated said Mr.Bernake today.
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/economy…
Who said cash wasn't trash. BTW, I think the toilet for the 270 ft condo is under the Murphy bed. The Shitty Planners are getting greased on this for sure.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 1:33 pm 26
15% drop in national average could well translate into >40% drops in Vancouver.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 1:46 pm 27
I saw these micro condos on the news.
The comment about 270 sqft being below the liveable space requirement sounds true. In the news, I heard something about the developer having to apply for some exemption. To me though, if someone wants to build 270 sqft places and another person wants to buy a 270 sqft place, then I don't have a problem with that. I think there are too many zoning restrictions already.
I'm probably in the minority here, but I actually like the idea of these things. Veriety is the spice of life and all that. I myself may be in this city or another two years, and would even consider buying something like this……..However…..
I would only be willing to pay maybe $75K given the size and location. in the news the develper threw out numbers like $600 or $700 a month in rent. I'm extrapolating from other price/rents, so I'm sure they would want something stupid like $150 to $200K for these.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 2:00 pm 28
@Anonymous:
Take a few years off those dates and the same comment could be found verbatim on the US blogs.
It's not different here and it's not different this time, and you're not going to have to wait 5 years to find out.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 2:03 pm 29
@vreaa:
"15% drop in national average could well translate into >40% drops in Vancouver."
More than that.
If Canada as a whole dropped 15% that would put us from our current state of 3.7 median multiples to 3.145 median multiples.
If Vancouver dropped to 3.145 it would mean about a 65% drop in prices.
I'm not saying it WILL drop that much but it certainly could. But anything less than a 50% correction here is just not in line with historic pricing for real estate anywhere in the world during any period in recorded history.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 2:22 pm 30
@Housing Advocate:
City of Vancouver’s Standards of Maintenance bylaw indicates that a sleeping unit, "equipped to be used for sleeping and sitting purposes," has to have at least 50 square feet of gross floor area for each occupant. At 270 sq ft, according to city standards, is capable of having 5 occupants!
I'm positive Gordo's welfare department will have no problems paying slumlords $1875/mo to house 5 welfare recipients in these micro-condos.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 2:39 pm 31
@Continuous Tool aka Vancouver Rocks: What's your prediction for RE prices in Vancouver?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 3:00 pm 32
@rp:
I swapped the vast majority of my net worth from the CAD about 3 years ago when it was last on par +/- with the USD, and then flipped right out of that into a different foreign currency, located safely out of the country. Worried about currency controls preventing large monetary transfers out of Canada when the "sheet" hits the fan. Don't wanna be stuck like a South African. Been very happy (and secure) ever since……
————————————
The comments about what kind of tenant you will get in these places is very well worth noting IMHO.
Having lived briefly for a few weeks in a 35 metre apartment (315') I can say that is is very doable, if you are single, and spend most of your time outside of the flat. I have no problem with the concept, but for one thing……
Unfortunately, this is Vancouver we're talking about……..hardly what you'd call a 24 hour city, that is warm, dry, sunny and world class.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 3:24 pm 33
@patriotz:
Politicians live off consensus. They need re-election every few years. Houses are the single most common type of asset held by family. In the past few years it has morphed dangerously into a way to 'save' without saving. I am really curious to see how politicians are going to take this toy off the hands of their voters.
Imagine that: get rich without working! Accumulate asset without savings! And then the big bad politician comes and shuts down the CHMC and it all unravels. I just can't see that happening, at least not in a short amount of time. It might over several years.
Before politicians do anything about it, the market will have unraveled under its own weight.
Almost forgot to sign….abolish the CHMC!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 3:44 pm 34
32
Does it really matter? My view is that prices will go up a little further and then stabilize for many many years. The feds will do what is necessary to keep people in their homes, and the banks will fall in line (e.g. mortgage relief, which is already taking place).
Housing is the only shinning sector in the national economy, and it has done a wonderful job of keep people employed and stimulating economic spin-offs. With 70% of the population owning, the feds know where their base of support is ( and yes, yes, income trusts were affected despite the power of baby boomers, but RE is not like income trusts that only a fraction of the population participated in).
And while everyone likes to say that they cannot do anything, or that there are no "bullets" left, few of those "analysts" predicted the federal governments intervention via low interest rates and the massive increase in the CMHC cap. Who knows what they will come up with, and/or how successful it will be, but I know that there are a lot of creative options out there to keep this little party going. Just because bears and prudent savers may not be the net beneficiaries of these policies does not meant that they will not be implemented.
When the average joe sees bailouts to banks and car companies, they now rightly assume bailouts will emerge for them should anything happen. A moral hazard has been established, and the average joe knows it. Taking on big risks, as is always outlined here by the cautious folks, will pay off for them because the good old government will help them out. Unfortunately, or unfortunately, red is the new black.
And if you seriously think that there will not be some form of bailout or relief for any underwater mortgage holder you are kidding yourself. Our neighbour to the south has experienced with some (though not necessarily effective), and Canada's socialistic leanings will certainly kick in for the "poor" homeowner living in that 500k condo.
And that relief will come from me and you, but the rub will be extra hard on all those prudent renting savers (which is most people on this board from the sounds of it). First, you got to see hapless fools gamble and win for 8 years, and now everyone will pay for those hapless fools if there is ever a correction.
So who really cares where prices go – everyone gets affected either way. If it goes up, you remain priced out and renting for many years, and if it goes down, you will be subsidizing a remedy for those hapless supposed "greaterfools."
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 3:45 pm 35
Lets see, is it time to capitulate? Japan has capitulated, so has Greece,New Zealand, Portugal and Spain, even little Iceland and the Celtic Tiger Ireland. Too many Baltic countries to count have capitualted. Obama will admit to capitulation tonight. The 12 trillion in debt has got them absoutley nowhere. The US spent 800 billion +++++ in the last few months to get unemployment below 10%, didn't work. All this free money just throws gasoline on an already screaming fire.
The thing about capitulating is that when it happens, you will definatley get a turn in the market. The bulls should check thier facts and hope this isn't the case.
I listened to Peter Schiff this morning on Bill Sluts show @ 98. Schiff is as convinced as ever that it is a matter of when and not if. If the macro continues to deteriorate then whos going to be left to buy anything? Does anyone whose testicles have dropped actually believe in never never land economics?
Canada IS a special case, the people are very complacent about taxes. Even so, there is an inflection point in every countries fiscal universe when the bills gotta be paid as was pointed out above. Just a matter of time.
IMF wants stimulus spending to continue. Guess who gets to pay it all back? You do! Right now direct taxes are at the 50% level, indirect take another 25%. You get to take home 25% of what you make. Any wonder why amortizations are at zero/35?
Parents associations are reporting a big drop in kids not being signed up for sports because the parents can't afford it. Seniors now dominate the food banks. Welfare rolls just doubled in the past 12 months and the media whores have stopped reporting the number of people on EI (never mind the people falling off after exhausting thier weeks). Who sees an upside in all this?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 4:03 pm 36
@realpaul:
Now I know why many of your posts don't make sense, realpaul. You've just informed us that you can't count to three (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). From this point on I'll read your posts with that in mind.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 4:07 pm 37
"Parents associations are reporting a big drop in kids not being signed up for sports because the parents can’t afford it. "
Interesting. Do you have a source?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 4:34 pm 38
I personally think this is a great idea and pushes the design envelope further esp. with our beautiful west coast backdrop. I can't wait!
http://www.littlediggs.com
Personally I think if you're not into small spaces, it just means you're not in the target market. Nothing to argue about.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 4:43 pm 39
In 5 years, or less, I will be an expat and won't be paying any Canadian taxes for the rest of my life…….
I estimate that over the next 20 years my actions will remove $1MM of revenue from the coffers of the Canadian government. So, the "complacent taxpayer" some people speak of doesn't refer to me. I chose to fight back and leave this cesspool for what it is.
"No bailout for you !!!"………At least not from my wallet anyways.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 4:49 pm 40
"Housing is the only shinning sector in the national economy, and it has done a wonderful job of keep people employed and stimulating economic spin-offs."
It takes me a lot to get riled up, but this kind of comment really pushes my buttons.
Housing is NOT a "shining sector of the national economomy", nor does it stimulate economic spin-offs. Housing is a non-productive asset, and the recent housing "boom" has done nothing other than misallocate capital from more productive uses.
How hard is it to comprehend that a house, once built, just sits there, producing no added value of any kind? Why should it go up in price forever? Why should someone make money by sitting in that house and doing nothing productive with their life? Why should those people get rich while hard-working entrepreneurs are busy producing real products and services?
The answer, of course, is that the housing boom is a ponzi scheme, and has done the exact opposite of "keeping people employed and stimulating economic spin-offs".
This is basic economics, and it is staggering how many people misunderstand this simple concept.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 5:09 pm 41
@Continuous Burn:
"My view is that prices will go up a little further and then stabilize for many many years. The feds will do what is necessary to keep people in their homes, and the banks will fall in line (e.g. mortgage relief, which is already taking place)."
They're burning money like there's no tomorrow right NOW! You think they can spend MORE on what will pretty soon become a bottomless money-pit just to placate a few people who paid too much?
70% of Canadians may own real estate but only about 5% of Canadians own in the really overpriced areas and most of those areas don't traditionally vote Conservative anyhow, so why should they care?
On the whole your, "The government will save us!", argument is about as realistic as praying to god to save you from your mortgage. I can tell you the Americans are a lot more religious than we are and it doesn't appear to work for them!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 5:52 pm 42
@Letthemburn:
Um, isn't that exactly what they tried south of the border? How did that work out?
Do you think the Cons are going to drive away almost all the supporters they have left (rural areas) by trying to bail out big-city homedebtors? The only real exceptions are Calgary and Edmonton – and they did nothing about the bust there that started in spring 2007 and went on for over a year for a 20% drop. When they already have an example from the US that one, it doesn't work, and two, it doesn't get you re-elected?
And all the bail-out programs south of the border are really in aid of the banks, not the homedebtors who would be better off walking. The banks already have their bailout here.
And finally, you don't seem to realize that the bust in the US was not due to mortage defaults, but simply because the markets ran out of buyers, like all Ponzi schemes. Defaults didn't start to rise until over a year after prices started dropping.
Dream on. The Cons will simply pretend there is no problem, because any other course of action would lead the public to realize that at best the Cons were negligent, and at worst they created the bubble deliberately.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 5:55 pm 43
@Continuous Burn: My view is that prices will go up a little further and then stabilize for many many years.
So once prices have "stabilized", who will pay 2x as much to own as it costs to rent without any appreciation??
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 6:06 pm 44
The bathroom is a single water-tight unit with a toilet, sink and shower all combined into one. Now I can shower, shave, and poop all at the same time.
This reeks of a Seinfeld episode where Kramer installed a garburator in the shower. Like a Seinfeld episode it is kinda sad, pathetic and not funny.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 6:21 pm 45
First, The Economist tells us Vancouver is the world’s most livable city (2009 ranking) and now Conde Nast Traveler tells us in its February issue that we have the best Chinese food in the world.
http://www.vancouversun.com/life/Conde+Nast+Trave…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 7:02 pm 46
oh yeeaah nutslaps! best chinese food! recommends foody goody or Lee's rub and tub!
"kung pau poon"
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 7:33 pm 47
Browncow has a sense of humour. Not bad. Maybe there's hope for that guy after all.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 7:38 pm 48
"Best Chinese Food in World"
Glad to hear you hold The Economist in such high regard. Now take a look at their prophetic report on the global housing bubble and tell us where they say "livability" has anything to do with sustainable price/income or price/rent. It it will cost you a few bucks but I think it's money well spent.
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_i…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 7:38 pm 49
I like my Chinese food doggy style.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 8:20 pm 50
#37 Anus, so thats your 'big burn'? Wow, your contributions are so incredibly toilet paperish, for a self described nobody that is.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 8:30 pm 51
#46 Conde Nasty sells papers to Americans who think ice cream is 'a bit spicy'. Americans wouldn't know Chinese food if it bit em in the ass. Last time I was in Chinatown SF they were surprised as hell to see a white devil in the place.
American chinese food is take out of the regurgitated crap like chicken chow mein and egg rolls we used to get here in the 1960's in the greasy spoons after Yung Chow Phat and the kitchen staff pissed in the tea if a whiteman walked in.
No question the chinese food has improved here to mediocre. But 'best in the world' c'mon, not that tired old line again. Whats that line about 'fool me once?'
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 1:31 pm 52
[...] Housing Advocate at vancouvercondo.info 27 Jan 2010 12:56 pm – “I do not think that people realize that 270 sq feet was previously deemed as non-livable space by provincial guidelines. The minimum space requirements, outlined in discussions on affordable housing strategies, identify a much bigger number. It is funny how concepts of “liveable space” get altered when there are profits to be made.” [...]
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 8:55 pm 53
Superb article by Murray Dobbin in the Tyee. Someone is finally calling a spade a spade. Don't recall it being discussed in this forum.
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009/10/22/BubbleWillBu…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 8:56 pm 54
@realpaul: Get some counseling buddy.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 9:37 pm 55
how about call it vPod?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 10:10 pm 56
@patriotz: I seem to remember we talked and posted this article a long while back. Still a very good read.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 10:26 pm 57
Those Apple tablets would be the perfect size TV for your micro condo. Gotta love the big screen. Then you can jump your car:
http://citizenpower.today.com/files/2009/03/tiny_…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 10:34 pm 58
For those hacking Garth for his 15% prediction, he has offered clarification, it's 15% over the next YEAR. 2011 and 2012 will be the big hit by his calculations, I have to say that seems about right to me, we won't see a landslide in 2010, the first year of a real estate bubble crash is never that dramatic if you look at all the recent examples around the world.
If anything 2010 should look a lot like 2008 when the government stopped the bleeding with extreme measures, only this time the government gas tank is empty so there will be no stopping it once the ball starts a rollin'.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 11:22 pm 59
The sad part is these "micro condos" will probably sell out in two days. "Two for me and two for my hubbund."
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 27th, 2010 at 11:27 pm 60
OLYMPICS GOLD FOR VANCOUVER
"Vancouver expected to post best economic growth of any Canadian city in 2010".-Confrence Board of Canada.
Canada's third-largest city will see economic growth leap by 4.5 per cent this year.Toronto #2.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 1:20 am 61
(mis)informer, you do realise that the Conference Board of Canada are a bunch of shills, no?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 1:58 am 62
Back in 06 I sat in front of an assessment review panel to have my property assessment lowered. I argued that it was simply a cash grab by the city and that I was not benefiting from paying hire taxes as I was not speculating on my house, but rather wanted to raise my kids in my neighborhood for quite some time. Needless to say, I lost my appeal.
I watched from 07-09 the property rise on average another 7% a year. But low and behold, my 2010 assessment showed an 8% drop! Now I don't live in the Vancouver area, but I am 100% sure that Vancouverites as well as those folks in Victoria are paying the bulk of the taxes for these Olympics. Their property assessments have continued to increase whereas other municipalities have reversed a bit.
So let them pay $6000+ in property taxes to support our government spending if they foolishly think that they are enriching themselves.Most can't even use their new found wealth to move elsewhere as the prices all over the lower mainland & Victoria have shot up equally.Going from one $800k shit-box to another amounts to what?
Greater fools indeed.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 5:13 am 63
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displ…
It's the fundamentals, stupid.
How far is price/rent in Vancouver above its long run average? Hint: 3 digits.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 8:20 am 64
@logic:
BIG NO
Since you start posting here i did not find any economy or r.e. in your logic except renting,CB Canada does have think tanks with access to hardcore data.They are deifinitley better than VCI shills like Vhb,Garth,Freako etc.
We are free to criticise someone by beating anyones view but calling someone shills without beating their view produce nothing other than a person with lack of knowledge.
If you want to make a difference beat their view in following orders……
Do you think Vancouver economy is not going to grow by 4.5% in 2010 ?
Do you think real estate is not getting strong than ever?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 10:00 am 65
@johnny O:
"I argued that it was simply a cash grab by the city and that I was not benefiting from paying hire taxes as I was not speculating on my house"
The problem is that you, like so many other people don't understand how the assessments work. The city has a budget and they tax accordingly, if your house doubles in assessed price at the same time as everyone else's house does your tax bill does not increase, the assessment is simply to determine your share.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 10:10 am 66
@Informer 10:
"They are deifinitley better than VCI shills like Vhb,Garth,Freako etc."
You don't really know what a shill is do you? Oh and don't forget Robert Shiller (yeah the guy who predicted the tech bust and one of the most respected economists in North America) in your list. They are worse than all the above because all the above provide the REASONING behind their beliefs.
"We are free to criticise someone by beating anyones view but calling someone shills without beating their view produce nothing other than a person with lack of knowledge."
Are you trying to say, we should criticize the methods and logic behind their assessment rather than attacking the group? If so I agree completely. The only problem is they don't release their methods, so it's just a bunch of hot air. If you know the methods they're using then feel free to bring them up and we can destroy them in a proper fashion. But saying, "Well they told me so it must be true.", is as useless as saying, "They're a bunch of shills, therefore they are wrong." Neither is a proper constructive argument, so, shills or not it doesn't matter. The data you provided, without any information on the methods used to arrive at those predictions is useless.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 10:25 am 67
Drachen : "The data you provided, without any information on the methods used to arrive at those predictions is useless."
Of course using data and analysis to produce predictions that have been wildly off the mark for years is also useless.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 10:48 am 68
Who's predictions are off the mark? The Conference Board?
Are you trying to say the predictions here were off? Because I think we mostly had it right, people have been saying for years that the market is overinflated and will eventually crash. Many of us predicted 2008 as the year things would come unglued and all indicators were that our prediction was correct until the government stepped in so I don't really see what you're getting at here.
I suppose it's like predicting you'll hit a home run, the ball's sailing, clearly on a trajectory to leave the park when it hits a seagull and falls within the park. The methods you used to make the prediction were good it's just there was an unpredictable intervention of factors that caused your predictions to fall short of the mark.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 10:58 am 69
"If you want to make a difference beat their view in following orders……"
—————
WTF do you mean? At least try to write English.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:10 am 70
None of the so-called professionals predicted the 20% decline in Van RE that began in 2008. They predicted price increases. They never predict anything but price increases. Their job is to "predict" price increases. Their paycheck depends on prices increases.
Their "predictions" are self-interested and have no credibility.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:12 am 71
"eliminating the scourge of homeless, drug addicts, panhandlers and prostitutes"
I presume that this was sarcasm. Although I rarely go downtown, I had to go to a conference at the Westin Bayshore on tuesday and I travelled up Hastings at about 115pm. the place was crowded and there were a lot of dubious looking types. My point of reference is the same corner, 20 years ago, having to wait for the bus at Hastings and Main. Have others observed the same thing?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:14 am 72
@logic: In English "Logic" is a pre-school teacher who look for spell mistake during boom time then disappear in bust time in fear of losing his job.
Once he was yelling at his mum asking her about his underwear Logic did not calm down unless his mum told him that he is wearing it but story did not end here because Logic start yelling at his Father asking him about his under shirt but his father told Logic that he is wearing it.
When his parents asked him where he is heading? Logic says he is getting late for school.
Isn't it SUNDAY today ? Asked his father.
Logic was ashamed with red face.
Whatsoever most of educated people waste their time to correct things instead of constructing something solid or else these greaterfools should have become homeowners by now.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:21 am 73
#54 C, so you don't like to hear the truth about starving seniors getting ripped off and ending up in the food bank lines? How about the fact that Canada leads the world in citizens killed at the hands of police? Oh you don't like that either. You don't want to hear about homelessness either cause it makes you uncomfortable? Too bad. Bad fiscal policy on priorities leads to hospital shortages, no school books, doubling welfare rates, rising unemployment, rising taxes bother you too? What else?
Crabby, you need to get real.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:22 am 74
@Informer 10:
Whatsoever most of educated people waste their time to correct things instead of constructing something solid or else
This is the drivel from a dude who no doubt owns millions in Vancouver Real estate.
God, I hate this godforsaken town where fuckin' idiots run the show.
Only in Vancouver…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:39 am 75
Oh!
I was running a show without Logic.An idiot who tells people around Marinaside Cresecnt that he is a DJ will run the show on VCI.
WOW.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:40 am 76
@Drachen:
Drachen, I wonder if you ever passed math 101 !?
On the second page of your BC assessment document, there is a very simple formula:
Assessed Value X Tax Rate = Taxes Payable
And it also states 'Properties with assessment increases above the average for their taxing jurisdiction (e.g municipality) may notice a proportionally higher percent change in property taxes.'
And another argument that supports Vancouver's unsustainable housing bubble as stated in the Tyee article that was commented above; is that Harper in 2008 refused to see an economic crisis happening because he had already adopted the Republican (Bush) doctrine when he asked the CMHC to open up the credit taps in 2007 which we all know how that resulted in the USA. We have a current PC party that is well on his way of increasing our national debt with another $150-200 Billion. We will feel the pain sooner or later, but my guess is that it will have to be dealt with later when the current party runs for the exits.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:44 am 77
@realpaul: My comment was not because I am uncomfortable hearing the 'truth'. I spend hours a day reading so I can learn the truth about many things. Yes, I know police misconduct is a big problem here, as are homelessness, addiction, minimal sentences for criminals, the REIC, etc. I just don't like hearing you obsess over it every day on a Vancouver housing blog, that's all.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:56 am 78
@Johnny O:
"‘Properties with assessment increases above the average for their taxing jurisdiction (e.g municipality) may notice a proportionally higher percent change in property taxes.’"
Yeah. That's what I said. Your share only changes based on the proportion of value you own. It's not math 101 you should be attending, it's civics 101.
The way in which our municipal taxes are distributed is through proportional payment based on land use/value.
The way the dollar figure is arrived at is NOT the same as Federal or Provincial though, the City cannot do a, 'cash grab', as you suggest, they arrive at the number they need to meet the annual budget forecast and then they distribute that amount as I explained above. They are not allowed to project surpluses or deficits (unless the deficit is for infrastructure and is approved by the electorate).
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 12:10 pm 79
"who look for spell mistake "
————
Way to make yourself look even more retarded.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 12:27 pm 80
There are 500,000 people about to run out of EI payments this year……payments that have been helpful in keeping the RE delinquency rate low, and the overall resale markeplace solvent.
When people have to start using their own savings to make payments while unemployed, not the free government handouts, things change fast because that is when the pain and anxiety begins.
Personally, we have been living off my interest income and the wife's salary for the last 18 months…..but as debt free renters we can do that, and still put money away, almost every month in fact.
If I had an extra $3,000 of monthly mortgage debt (the difference between my rent and the cost to buy the place I live in) the condo would be listed for sale, and we'd be freaking out…..because we'd probably also have C/C debt, LOC debt and car payments, etc, just like most other over extended homedebtors do, as well and no savings whatsoever to fall back on.
The Calgary market went down 20% in 9 months back in 2008………until the government lost their f-in minds and screwed a generation of taxpayers.
I have seen a RE crash first hand back in the early 80's……we're gonna have one here, it is just a matter of when, how, and over what period of time. Call it a crash or call it a meltdown….whatever.
The house of cards called "Canada" cannot sustain itself anymore……..
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 12:49 pm 81
@Drachen:
More correctly, infrastructure spending is capitalized (not an operating expense) and is not used to compute the surplus/deficit.
If anyone thinks this is some trick government invented, corporations (or for that matter individuals running business) work the same way. If you spend 500K on a revenue condo that does not come off your income for that year.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 1:16 pm 82
Even realpaul could not have made up this one:
Vanoc Olympic torch video contains clip from Nazi propaganda film by Leni Riefenstahl
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 1:29 pm 83
@logic:Apparently I am the master of economics,I feel good to give you words to play because you have nothing else to play with so keep on checking gramatical errors to pass your time.You are just a teacher without logic.You have lots of time to repeat an assault but no time to answer a simple question.You are a parrot who read and write well but you are unable to see beyond your knowledge that's why you were unable to apply your chapetrs on the circumastance.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 1:35 pm 84
@Carioca Canuck:
Ditto, and that more than any scholarly analysis convinces me of the coming debacle. It's like 1982, squared. There is no substitute for what you've seen with your own eyes.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 1:43 pm 85
Read'em and weep boys and girls…
"Bank of Canada will not be raising rates until mid-2011 – at the earliest"
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inv…
Those "inevitable" interest rates increases are not "inevitable" this year….maybe next year…lol
This means another MINIMUM 10% increase in Vancouver's house prices, and who knows what it will do nationally….
As I said below, the government can keep this party going for years, and it looks like it will be successful.
Lets just keep extending our predictions for the "inevitable" collapse…lol
Lets all say 2014 or 2015 when all those low interest rate mortgages reset….only 13 years of a bull market….lol
Oh, and yes, yes, the length of the run-up does not negate whether the market is in a bubble or not….you just tell yourself that for another 5 years as you post daily about the inevitable collapse
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 1:44 pm 86
"When people have to start using their own savings to make payments while unemployed, not the free government handouts, things change fast because that is when the pain and anxiety begins."
I deeply resent this. EI is not "free government handouts"
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 2:00 pm 87
@Informer 10:
"You have lots of time to repeat an assault but no time to answer a simple question."
Ok, first off, it wasn't a simple question, your English is so bad that it requires decoding to make any sense. Once decoded, yes the questions were simple, at least in the sense that they asked nothing of consequence and answering them would only be stating the obvious. So simple-minded questions might be a better way of putting it. But you're asking the wrong questions.
We can't look at the conclusions of their 'study' to tell us anything about the future, I could stop any schmuck on the street and ask him for a prediction of the next year's economic development and I'd get an equally meaningful answer. Unless we know the METHODS used we cannot say anything about the predictive value of their work.
Now here, we have two groups, the Bear-bloggers who are transparent about our methods and speak about the future in pretty generalistic terms, and the bulls, shills and Rennies of the world who give wonderfully precise information without providing a shred of evidence as to why they're making those predictions.
Two questions arise, which method is more accurate and which has more value?
You can answer those questions however you want but it's important that you at least think about the right questions before jumping to unsupported conclusions. If you don't use your brain to decide which party has the right of it we might as well all go listen to the echoes of a Rennie speech in one of his empty condo towers for all the value you add to the conversation.
By the way, your only debate point is a fallacy called 'appeal to authority'. If you're unaware of fallacies they are essentially debate tricks used to sway an audience without actually providing genuine reasons for people to believe your point of view.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 2:05 pm 88
"This means another MINIMUM 10% increase in Vancouver’s house prices, and who knows what it will do nationally…."
….unless you run out of buyers even with
free money….. it still is a ponzi scheme
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 3:09 pm 89
@Continuous Burn:
How come the government couldn't in the US, UK, Ireland, Spain, etc? USD/GBP/EUR rates are just as low, aren't they?
What's different here? Aside from timing?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 3:24 pm 90
Is it just me, or does there seem to be a lot more bulls posting on this site than normal?
Throwing out a question…
Let's say interst rates do not increase until 2011/2012…does anyone think a correction in the market can still occur? Will the HST and continued trend of upward unemployment rates be enough to send this market down?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 3:26 pm 91
@Drachen:
Drachen, you're using technical blabber to make a case where I am trying to tell you they're all the same (Fed,provincial & municipal) The Fed allocates only so much and the Province allocates only so much and then they tell the muni-people to raise their taxes to make up for the rest. If they can't sufficiently raise the taxes (past the point of already suffocation to the tax-payer) they get their capital through muni-bonds. AND, of course they can't show a surplus because they always over spend their income due to union or non wages, benefits,etc… That is why Vancouver is the only city in BC that can go directly on their own and offer bonds. There is never enough capital! So raise the property values = more tax revenue.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 3:39 pm 92
@Bear since 08:
No it's not just you.
I remember the same thing on the Housing Bubble Blog and Housing Panic back in 2005.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 3:46 pm 93
@Bear since 08:
My prediction is that short term rates will not really go anywhere for the foreseeable future (5yrs possibly more)
As one analyst (can't remember his name) put it very well, the government's best scenario to not damage the property bubble or kill the ahh-so-slow recovery is to aim for 'JUST ABOVE ZERO INFLATION TARGET' Yes it will hurt the cash savers and especially the retirees that are (or should I say were) so dependent on T-bonds to give them a stable earning. That's now out the window. So the only way to adjust for this deficiency is to prop-up the values of homes as it is well know by the BoC that retirees own flat out their property. That way, the retiree has a few options:
1-sell & get out of town (btw a great hedge as an investment if anyone cares to follow demographics)
2-REFI but risk leaving nothing for the kids. Which is why reverse-mortgages are doing so well.
3-let the kid's family move back with them so that they can pay for the ever-so crazy property taxes.(ALA Japanese style!)Kids will then inherit the house.
4-Let them rot in their homes and slowly but surely Vancouver will become like NYC where only 25% of the top income earners will own 70% of all properties. The rich will get richer and poor,poorer.
Whichever way, propety values, whether you like it or not (like myself) will not CRASH. It's sad, an injustice to many, I do agree but it's the way things are. The banksters must inflate somehow (like the HST tax is an inflation tax) or DIE. That is the top priority at the BoC!!!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 4:18 pm 94
@Bear since 08:
Is it just me, or does there seem to be a lot more bulls posting on this site than normal?
Funny thing, the quality of the debate definitively took a noth down as well. Just saying.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 4:24 pm 95
@Bear since 08:
"Is it just me, or does there seem to be a lot more bulls posting on this site than normal?"
The same thing happened in the spring of '08, I think they know, deep down there's a problem with the market and they can see the cracks developing so they turn to the internet for reassurance that they're right, they stumble across this blog and find it's filled with their worst nightmares so they just reject it outright.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 4:26 pm 96
Hey dumbasses,
Do you ever think that maybe its a disgruntled bear that is posting all the "bullish" statements? Maybe one fed up of waiting and is testing the logic of bear positions in face of never ending price appreciation? I would not view it as the bulls are coming here, and hence the end is near bullshit. The bulls are too busy enjoying life and their appreciation.
Just saying
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 4:34 pm 97
@Bear since 08:
Oh and in answer to your other question. Interest rates, CMHC interference, retiring boomers, unemployment and all those other things are just factors, they can change the breaking point to a small degree of the market but none of them, alone or in concert can push the market significantly above or below it's natural breaking point (which is grounded in money supply and psychology).
We saw the market break at this level two years ago and it was only rescued by CMHC interference and historic low interest rates. Well guess what? There's no more room to drop interest rates and likewise the CMHC cannot step up their mortgage insurance printing press much faster than it's going right now.
So, unless there is some massive unforeseen factor at least as powerful as free money (.25% interest) to swoop in and save the market it will certainly crash this year and continue on a crash course for at least the next two to three years after.
This is the breaking point, we've seen it before. It's happening right….
Wait for it…
NOW!
(give or take a few months)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 4:36 pm 98
@Johnny O:
"1-sell & get out of town (btw a great hedge as an investment if anyone cares to follow demographics)"
Who is going to buy all those houses at today's prices?
"2-REFI but risk leaving nothing for the kids. Which is why reverse-mortgages are doing so well."
Leave nothing to the kids? See (1).
"3-let the kid’s family move back with them so that they can pay for the ever-so crazy property taxes.(ALA Japanese style!)Kids will then inherit the house."
What happens to the dwellings that the kids used to live in?
"4-Let them rot in their homes and slowly but surely Vancouver will become like NYC where only 25% of the top income earners will own 70% of all properties. The rich will get richer and poor,poorer."
What evidence do you have that 70% of all individually titled properties in NYC are rentals? Ever hear of Archie Bunker?
Why would a rich person, in NYC or anywhere else, want to rent a place out to someone for 1/2 the ownership costs (cash or opportunity)? Does that make the owner richer or poorer?
Oh BTW how come your rationalizations didn't work south of the border? Including NYC itself?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 4:38 pm 99
#77, C, OK, so its uncomfortable when theres no place to hide. Oh well. I've been told that my ubiquitous commentaries are being discussed on the water cooler and party circuits, thats how truth works and thats why the deniers are so uncomfortable in having to confront thier disonance everywhere they turn.
Truth is like wind and water against the ill designed 'Arizona style' facade of a leaking condo. No matter how much plaster on top, the truth finds a way to fuck up the circle jerk.
Nothing that happens in our society is in isolation from everything else. Its all the same problem. The media blitzkrieg has many people confusing the advertising spin with reality. This is not healthy for anyone going forward.
The RE market is never going to be a 'happy place' as long as so many elements of our society have to live with a pointy stick in the eye. You don't have a right to choose who gets to starve and who gets to party and still be comfortable in your isolated bubble.
I had a comment from a girl who has put up a gushy blog about Vancshitzer being 'the best place on earth' (VANFAN2010). This deluded dipshit has really been swilling the kool aid. When I posted a list of what was really going on in Vancouver she also wanted the bad news to 'go away'. It just makes people 'so uncomfortable' especially as the happy face she was trying to promote actually has big syphlitic lesions under its cheap threads.
Meanwhile I want to confirm what I heard from a cabbie at at the airport. Vanocstan has cut out all ground transpo companies out of the Oy OY. On the south side of Marine at Boundary they have carved out a huge lot out of the bush along the river and there looks to be thousands of white vehicles sitting there, all with California license plates, painted with the Oy OY logos.The cabbies and all the small business people who thought that they would get some cake are left eating shit.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 4:40 pm 100
If assets never went down in price there would be no poor or middle class people. We'd all be rich.
Ergo, RE is going to go back down again, as all bubble markets over recorded history have always returned to the mean.
Reading what some peoeple are saying here about how RE is just going to keep going up and will not fall is just like watching the movie "Groundhog Day" over and over……..and, FWIW, it too, ends.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 5:02 pm 101
It's been a depressing couple of days. First Garth says RE's only going down 15%, then we hear the BOC may not raise interest rates for another year and a half. What's a bear to do? Go out and buy that townhouse for $400k, at 2% interest and hope the rates don't go up anytime soon? But wait…logic must prevail at some point. And I'm hearing more and more stories about friends and family members with debt problems. Come on…it's gotta end sometime. And sometimes when you're just about ready to give up, well, that's when it'll really happen. Just wait.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 5:05 pm 102
@Carioca Canuck:
Some assets crash therefore Real Estate will crash is not really compelling CC, in fact it's not even a logically sound construct.
But ALL asset bubbles crash and Vancouver RE is demonstrably a bubble so it WILL crash works. It might be a little more complicated and the case for proving it's a bubble takes some work to explain but it's a logically sound argument and I have never yet seen the bulls come up with a comparatively sound counter-argument.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 5:08 pm 103
@Drachen: I can give you 10 twice for your first and second post regarding same comment and there is lots of matterial in your post that is useful for the readers.
Regarding your request or order for source or base is not really a requirement.Why? Because if you look at 4.5% prediction for economy growth in Vancouver one can easily take it as opinion.
So you or Logic were able to creat an opinion against CB of Canada,You could have use any of the source like un employements,Higher mls listings,Flood of lisings for rents,Lower rents,People are moving out of Vancouver or reverse all the source of information in favour of Vancouver economy growth 2010 that will add the numbers inline with prediction.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 5:10 pm 104
@pricedoutfornow:
"First Garth says RE’s only going down 15%"
15% THIS YEAR Pricedout, only for this year.
Even if that were the entire fall for Canada if all properties fell to an equal level (3.15 median multiples I believe it worked out to) it would mean nearly a two thirds drop in real estate prices here!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 5:16 pm 105
Double top
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A double top is a reversal chart pattern which is defined by a chart where a financial instrument makes a run up to a particular level, then drops back from that level, then makes a second run at that level, and then finally drops back off again.
[edit] Significance for traders
The double top pattern shows demand outpacing supply (buyers predominate) up to the first top, causing prices to rise. The supply/demand situation then reverses; supply outpaces demand (sellers predominate), causing prices to fall. After a price "valley", buyers again predominate and prices rise. If traders see that prices are not pushing past their level at the first top, sellers may again prevail, lowering prices and causing a double top to form. It is generally regarded as a bearish sign if prices drop below their level at the earlier valley between the two tops.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 5:30 pm 106
#101 @pricedoutfornow: re: waiting.
B.S. I look at all this free money, and the interest rates offered for my savings, which are well below the rate of inflation, never mind house price inflation, and I ask: why the FUCK am I paying for this ?! I'm young, working hard, trying to raise a family, and we're just being left behind so that everyone can get cheap financing for shit they can't afford. Most of these people are older and already "rich".
I just don't give a shit anymore. This country can fuck itself. When you can't save your own country's money and expect to get anything for it later, a fundamental trust has been broken. What's the point of working? Seriously, just buy something someone else may want later and get rich. I'm going to buy all the canes and scooters so those baby boomers are fucked.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 5:41 pm 107
RP
scooters and canes…that is awesome
make sure you load up on defibulators, ensure, and dentures while you are at it…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 6:20 pm 108
"they have carved out a huge lot out of the bush along the river and there looks to be thousands of white vehicles sitting there"
They didn't "carve" anything out. It has been a vacant lot waiting for development for years now. At least now they're using it for something.
Guess what's slated to be built there? It rhymes with "Rondo".
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 6:33 pm 109
@Drachen
What happened to greaterfool.ca?
Browser says:
Internet Explorer cannot display the webpage
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 6:40 pm 110
@patriotz:
Btw, patriotz, I think your alter ego is Drachen. If i'm correct in that statement (and only you would know) then you better start believing in what I say to be dead on.
Look, I'm not a bull or else I would be leveraging myself to the tilt to buy more Vancouver properties. It's not my point.
But I would at least like to educate those that think waiting while inflation destroys your hard earned savings is not very smart. (I liked your posting 'rp' but giving up is not the solution) People have to get creative to get in the market.
Patriotz, in response to Q 1-4:
1. who's going to buy the homes vacated? C'mon! look at who is importing their new found wealth!!! It's also been published (christ I'm bad with my references!) that the dope industry is bigger than tourism in this province. Guess where that cash is being laundered?
2. See (1) That's correct. They're the ones buying up property.
3. those rental dwellings are going to be rented with the other unfortunates not wanting to accept reality. There is NO over capacity in rentals in Vancouver or else all those midget height basement suites would not be rented out by those who depend on them.
I like to call this new class of Vancouver landlords living in their over-priced decriped homes, Slum Dog Millionaires!
4. NYC's 70% rental ownership, I believe it was in the NYTimes posting or the economist. F@%&! I can't find the source, you'll have to dig. But yes, that's the state Vancouver is getting to. The Elite will own most of the properties.
5. Finally, the The Stuyvesant Town in NYC which has 11,000 rental units. You read it correctly, shit I even have my source (look below)did a strategic default because they used $5.4B of leveraged money — meaning they stiffed someone else — to buy a property that is apparently only valued at $1.8B
Well Intrawest did the very same thing with their Whistler investments, yet you don't see the property values crashing. It's someone else's money that was mal-invested.
Let me give you a hint, if you get a 5% down/35 year CMHC approved loan, and the 5% down is smaller than let's say the next 2 year's worth of rental, why do you care if the market crashed? Worst case scenario, if you can't wait it out till properties recover (and they always do, look at Argentina after their 2001 bond defaults) then you tell the bank to GFY and throw them the keys. You'll simply be back in a rental and you'll only be able to eat craft dinners and drive a $200 throw-away car. Forget going to restaurants as you'll have no credit card for about 1 year!
That's not a bad price to pay for a failed investment!!hehe
But in all likely hood, it will not happen that way. You'll just become another disgruntled home owner sweating it out to pay your property taxes like the rest of us as we see our local politicians throwing themselves lavish parties such at the Olympics at tax payer's expense. That's it.
God speed renters
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/01/25/tish…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 6:45 pm 111
johny:
[1] dope industry – this is new is it? Wasn't around prior to the 2002 start of the boom? Next myth please.
[2] "I can’t find the source" – ie: you don't have a source. Please return when you have one to support your "opinion".
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 7:24 pm 112
@Johnny O:
70% of households renting is not the same as 70% of individually titled dwellings being rented. Multi-unit rentals have to be rented (duh) and NYC has the highest % of these out of total dwellings of any US city. This issue here is how many dwellings which could be owner-occupied are rented out, and I haven't seen any evidence that NYC is higher than any other US city in this respect.
That's a question of fact. As to your other points, which are conjectures, you have no facts to back them up.
As for alternate identities, I must admit to using "patriotzed" when I'm away from my own computer so I don't have to log onto WordPress. But that's all.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 7:35 pm 113
"70% of households renting"
Vancouver west end downtown false creek north
false creek south according to election stats
are approx 70% renters and 30% owner/occupied
we are Manhattanized already, nothing new here!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 7:54 pm 114
@ReadyToPop:
I don't know, it was running yesterday. Perhaps Bob Rennie put out a web 'contract' on that site? I'm sure it will be up again soon enough.
@Johnny O:
"I think your alter ego is Drachen."
Well I probably do have enough ego for two people but I certainly don't have that much time to waste. Plus, I go on vacation occasionally, you might have noticed I didn't post at all for three or so weeks around Christmas.
Anyhow, I can guarantee you I'm not him.
"Worst case scenario, if you can’t wait it out till properties recover (and they always do, look at Argentina after their 2001 bond defaults) then you tell the bank to GFY and throw them the keys."
This is not California, the bank has the very legitimate right to come after you for everything you own, your only recourse would be to declare bankruptcy. And of course buying a house with 5% down and the intent to never make any monthly payments is almost certainly considered a form of fraud in Canada. But good luck with that plan! Write to me from Jail and tell me how it worked out for you!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:13 pm 115
@ReadyToPop:
Greaterfool.ca is back up now.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 28th, 2010 at 11:36 pm 116
@Johnny O: I would be leveraging myself to the tilt
Is that like a hybrid of leverage to the hilt and leverage to the tits?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 29th, 2010 at 12:17 am 117
#114 @Drachen: Are you telling me that the government will come after people it lent money to? Yeah right.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 29th, 2010 at 1:14 am 118
Re: Johnny O
http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=6067
Also the owner occupied dwelling isnt 30% its 55% and a big contributor is manhatten wich is ~20%. However business rentals are a good reason for this which must compete with regular properties; vancouver doesnt have that. In order for that to develop I really think you need some major industries (and dope doesnt count for downtown).
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 29th, 2010 at 9:44 am 119
@rp:
The government isn't doing the lending to individuals. But yeah if the bank bails and calls in the mortgage insurance the government will go through the same steps a bank or other institution would to collect their money.
"CMHC really is no different than any other creditors and will follow the standard collection processes available. Essentially you would be looking at them trying to collect by directly making arrangements with you. If that fails then you will be looking at being subject to a garnishee." – Barton Goth (Bankruptcy Lawyer)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 29th, 2010 at 11:47 am 120
@patriotz:
the torch relay was a nazi idea in the first place.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Flame
"The modern convention of moving the Olympic Flame via a relay system from Olympia to the Olympic venue began with the 1936 Summer Olympics in Berlin, Germany.
The relay, captured in Leni Riefenstahl's film Olympia, was part of the Nazi propaganda machine’s attempt to add myth and mystique to Adolf Hitler’s regime. Hitler saw the link with the ancient Games as the perfect way to illustrate his belief that classical Greece was an Aryan forerunner of the modern German Reich."
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
January 29th, 2010 at 1:16 pm 121
@gdot: Yikes! I had no idea. So would someone who compares VANOC to the Nazi regime be exonerated of the charge of having broken Godwin's Law?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
February 18th, 2010 at 7:36 am 122
I suppose your also must reduce your life to a micro life to live there.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0