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January 28th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
If assets never went down in price there would be no poor or middle class people. We’d all be rich.
Ergo, RE is going to go back down again, as all bubble markets over recorded history have always returned to the mean.
Reading what some peoeple are saying here about how RE is just going to keep going up and will not fall is just like watching the movie “Groundhog Day” over and over……..and, FWIW, it too, ends.
January 28th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
#77, C, OK, so its uncomfortable when theres no place to hide. Oh well. I’ve been told that my ubiquitous commentaries are being discussed on the water cooler and party circuits, thats how truth works and thats why the deniers are so uncomfortable in having to confront thier disonance everywhere they turn.
Truth is like wind and water against the ill designed ‘Arizona style’ facade of a leaking condo. No matter how much plaster on top, the truth finds a way to fuck up the circle jerk.
Nothing that happens in our society is in isolation from everything else. Its all the same problem. The media blitzkrieg has many people confusing the advertising spin with reality. This is not healthy for anyone going forward.
The RE market is never going to be a ‘happy place’ as long as so many elements of our society have to live with a pointy stick in the eye. You don’t have a right to choose who gets to starve and who gets to party and still be comfortable in your isolated bubble.
I had a comment from a girl who has put up a gushy blog about Vancshitzer being ‘the best place on earth’ (VANFAN2010). This deluded dipshit has really been swilling the kool aid. When I posted a list of what was really going on in Vancouver she also wanted the bad news to ‘go away’. It just makes people ‘so uncomfortable’ especially as the happy face she was trying to promote actually has big syphlitic lesions under its cheap threads.
Meanwhile I want to confirm what I heard from a cabbie at at the airport. Vanocstan has cut out all ground transpo companies out of the Oy OY. On the south side of Marine at Boundary they have carved out a huge lot out of the bush along the river and there looks to be thousands of white vehicles sitting there, all with California license plates, painted with the Oy OY logos.The cabbies and all the small business people who thought that they would get some cake are left eating shit.
January 28th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
@Johnny O:
“1-sell & get out of town (btw a great hedge as an investment if anyone cares to follow demographics)”
Who is going to buy all those houses at today’s prices?
“2-REFI but risk leaving nothing for the kids. Which is why reverse-mortgages are doing so well.”
Leave nothing to the kids? See (1).
“3-let the kid’s family move back with them so that they can pay for the ever-so crazy property taxes.(ALA Japanese style!)Kids will then inherit the house.”
What happens to the dwellings that the kids used to live in?
“4-Let them rot in their homes and slowly but surely Vancouver will become like NYC where only 25% of the top income earners will own 70% of all properties. The rich will get richer and poor,poorer.”
What evidence do you have that 70% of all individually titled properties in NYC are rentals? Ever hear of Archie Bunker?
Why would a rich person, in NYC or anywhere else, want to rent a place out to someone for 1/2 the ownership costs (cash or opportunity)? Does that make the owner richer or poorer?
Oh BTW how come your rationalizations didn’t work south of the border? Including NYC itself?
January 28th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
@Bear since 08:
Oh and in answer to your other question. Interest rates, CMHC interference, retiring boomers, unemployment and all those other things are just factors, they can change the breaking point to a small degree of the market but none of them, alone or in concert can push the market significantly above or below it’s natural breaking point (which is grounded in money supply and psychology).
We saw the market break at this level two years ago and it was only rescued by CMHC interference and historic low interest rates. Well guess what? There’s no more room to drop interest rates and likewise the CMHC cannot step up their mortgage insurance printing press much faster than it’s going right now.
So, unless there is some massive unforeseen factor at least as powerful as free money (.25% interest) to swoop in and save the market it will certainly crash this year and continue on a crash course for at least the next two to three years after.
This is the breaking point, we’ve seen it before. It’s happening right….
Wait for it…
NOW!
(give or take a few months)
January 28th, 2010 at 4:26 pm
Hey dumbasses,
Do you ever think that maybe its a disgruntled bear that is posting all the “bullish” statements? Maybe one fed up of waiting and is testing the logic of bear positions in face of never ending price appreciation? I would not view it as the bulls are coming here, and hence the end is near bullshit. The bulls are too busy enjoying life and their appreciation.
Just saying
January 28th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
@Bear since 08:
“Is it just me, or does there seem to be a lot more bulls posting on this site than normal?”
The same thing happened in the spring of ’08, I think they know, deep down there’s a problem with the market and they can see the cracks developing so they turn to the internet for reassurance that they’re right, they stumble across this blog and find it’s filled with their worst nightmares so they just reject it outright.
January 28th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
@Bear since 08:
Is it just me, or does there seem to be a lot more bulls posting on this site than normal?
Funny thing, the quality of the debate definitively took a noth down as well. Just saying.
January 28th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
@Bear since 08:
My prediction is that short term rates will not really go anywhere for the foreseeable future (5yrs possibly more)
As one analyst (can’t remember his name) put it very well, the government’s best scenario to not damage the property bubble or kill the ahh-so-slow recovery is to aim for ‘JUST ABOVE ZERO INFLATION TARGET’ Yes it will hurt the cash savers and especially the retirees that are (or should I say were) so dependent on T-bonds to give them a stable earning. That’s now out the window. So the only way to adjust for this deficiency is to prop-up the values of homes as it is well know by the BoC that retirees own flat out their property. That way, the retiree has a few options:
1-sell & get out of town (btw a great hedge as an investment if anyone cares to follow demographics)
2-REFI but risk leaving nothing for the kids. Which is why reverse-mortgages are doing so well.
3-let the kid’s family move back with them so that they can pay for the ever-so crazy property taxes.(ALA Japanese style!)Kids will then inherit the house.
4-Let them rot in their homes and slowly but surely Vancouver will become like NYC where only 25% of the top income earners will own 70% of all properties. The rich will get richer and poor,poorer.
Whichever way, propety values, whether you like it or not (like myself) will not CRASH. It’s sad, an injustice to many, I do agree but it’s the way things are. The banksters must inflate somehow (like the HST tax is an inflation tax) or DIE. That is the top priority at the BoC!!!
January 28th, 2010 at 3:39 pm
@Bear since 08:
No it’s not just you.
I remember the same thing on the Housing Bubble Blog and Housing Panic back in 2005.
January 28th, 2010 at 3:26 pm
@Drachen:
Drachen, you’re using technical blabber to make a case where I am trying to tell you they’re all the same (Fed,provincial & municipal) The Fed allocates only so much and the Province allocates only so much and then they tell the muni-people to raise their taxes to make up for the rest. If they can’t sufficiently raise the taxes (past the point of already suffocation to the tax-payer) they get their capital through muni-bonds. AND, of course they can’t show a surplus because they always over spend their income due to union or non wages, benefits,etc… That is why Vancouver is the only city in BC that can go directly on their own and offer bonds. There is never enough capital! So raise the property values = more tax revenue.
January 28th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
Is it just me, or does there seem to be a lot more bulls posting on this site than normal?
Throwing out a question…
Let’s say interst rates do not increase until 2011/2012…does anyone think a correction in the market can still occur? Will the HST and continued trend of upward unemployment rates be enough to send this market down?
January 28th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
@Continuous Burn:
How come the government couldn’t in the US, UK, Ireland, Spain, etc? USD/GBP/EUR rates are just as low, aren’t they?
What’s different here? Aside from timing?
January 28th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
“This means another MINIMUM 10% increase in Vancouver’s house prices, and who knows what it will do nationally….”
….unless you run out of buyers even with
free money….. it still is a ponzi scheme
January 28th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
@Informer 10:
“You have lots of time to repeat an assault but no time to answer a simple question.”
Ok, first off, it wasn’t a simple question, your English is so bad that it requires decoding to make any sense. Once decoded, yes the questions were simple, at least in the sense that they asked nothing of consequence and answering them would only be stating the obvious. So simple-minded questions might be a better way of putting it. But you’re asking the wrong questions.
We can’t look at the conclusions of their ‘study’ to tell us anything about the future, I could stop any schmuck on the street and ask him for a prediction of the next year’s economic development and I’d get an equally meaningful answer. Unless we know the METHODS used we cannot say anything about the predictive value of their work.
Now here, we have two groups, the Bear-bloggers who are transparent about our methods and speak about the future in pretty generalistic terms, and the bulls, shills and Rennies of the world who give wonderfully precise information without providing a shred of evidence as to why they’re making those predictions.
Two questions arise, which method is more accurate and which has more value?
You can answer those questions however you want but it’s important that you at least think about the right questions before jumping to unsupported conclusions. If you don’t use your brain to decide which party has the right of it we might as well all go listen to the echoes of a Rennie speech in one of his empty condo towers for all the value you add to the conversation.
By the way, your only debate point is a fallacy called ‘appeal to authority’. If you’re unaware of fallacies they are essentially debate tricks used to sway an audience without actually providing genuine reasons for people to believe your point of view.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
“When people have to start using their own savings to make payments while unemployed, not the free government handouts, things change fast because that is when the pain and anxiety begins.”
I deeply resent this. EI is not “free government handouts”
January 28th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
Read’em and weep boys and girls…
“Bank of Canada will not be raising rates until mid-2011 – at the earliest”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1445523/
Those “inevitable” interest rates increases are not “inevitable” this year….maybe next year…lol
This means another MINIMUM 10% increase in Vancouver’s house prices, and who knows what it will do nationally….
As I said below, the government can keep this party going for years, and it looks like it will be successful.
Lets just keep extending our predictions for the “inevitable” collapse…lol
Lets all say 2014 or 2015 when all those low interest rate mortgages reset….only 13 years of a bull market….lol
Oh, and yes, yes, the length of the run-up does not negate whether the market is in a bubble or not….you just tell yourself that for another 5 years as you post daily about the inevitable collapse
January 28th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
@Carioca Canuck:
Ditto, and that more than any scholarly analysis convinces me of the coming debacle. It’s like 1982, squared. There is no substitute for what you’ve seen with your own eyes.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
@logic:Apparently I am the master of economics,I feel good to give you words to play because you have nothing else to play with so keep on checking gramatical errors to pass your time.You are just a teacher without logic.You have lots of time to repeat an assault but no time to answer a simple question.You are a parrot who read and write well but you are unable to see beyond your knowledge that’s why you were unable to apply your chapetrs on the circumastance.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
Even realpaul could not have made up this one:
Vanoc Olympic torch video contains clip from Nazi propaganda film by Leni Riefenstahl
January 28th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
@Drachen:
More correctly, infrastructure spending is capitalized (not an operating expense) and is not used to compute the surplus/deficit.
If anyone thinks this is some trick government invented, corporations (or for that matter individuals running business) work the same way. If you spend 500K on a revenue condo that does not come off your income for that year.
January 28th, 2010 at 12:27 pm
There are 500,000 people about to run out of EI payments this year……payments that have been helpful in keeping the RE delinquency rate low, and the overall resale markeplace solvent.
When people have to start using their own savings to make payments while unemployed, not the free government handouts, things change fast because that is when the pain and anxiety begins.
Personally, we have been living off my interest income and the wife’s salary for the last 18 months…..but as debt free renters we can do that, and still put money away, almost every month in fact.
If I had an extra $3,000 of monthly mortgage debt (the difference between my rent and the cost to buy the place I live in) the condo would be listed for sale, and we’d be freaking out…..because we’d probably also have C/C debt, LOC debt and car payments, etc, just like most other over extended homedebtors do, as well and no savings whatsoever to fall back on.
The Calgary market went down 20% in 9 months back in 2008………until the government lost their f-in minds and screwed a generation of taxpayers.
I have seen a RE crash first hand back in the early 80′s……we’re gonna have one here, it is just a matter of when, how, and over what period of time. Call it a crash or call it a meltdown….whatever.
The house of cards called “Canada” cannot sustain itself anymore……..
January 28th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
“who look for spell mistake ”
————
Way to make yourself look even more retarded.
January 28th, 2010 at 11:56 am
@Johnny O:
“‘Properties with assessment increases above the average for their taxing jurisdiction (e.g municipality) may notice a proportionally higher percent change in property taxes.’”
Yeah. That’s what I said. Your share only changes based on the proportion of value you own. It’s not math 101 you should be attending, it’s civics 101.
The way in which our municipal taxes are distributed is through proportional payment based on land use/value.
The way the dollar figure is arrived at is NOT the same as Federal or Provincial though, the City cannot do a, ‘cash grab’, as you suggest, they arrive at the number they need to meet the annual budget forecast and then they distribute that amount as I explained above. They are not allowed to project surpluses or deficits (unless the deficit is for infrastructure and is approved by the electorate).
January 28th, 2010 at 11:44 am
@realpaul: My comment was not because I am uncomfortable hearing the ‘truth’. I spend hours a day reading so I can learn the truth about many things. Yes, I know police misconduct is a big problem here, as are homelessness, addiction, minimal sentences for criminals, the REIC, etc. I just don’t like hearing you obsess over it every day on a Vancouver housing blog, that’s all.
January 28th, 2010 at 11:40 am
@Drachen:
Drachen, I wonder if you ever passed math 101 !?
On the second page of your BC assessment document, there is a very simple formula:
Assessed Value X Tax Rate = Taxes Payable
And it also states ‘Properties with assessment increases above the average for their taxing jurisdiction (e.g municipality) may notice a proportionally higher percent change in property taxes.’
And another argument that supports Vancouver’s unsustainable housing bubble as stated in the Tyee article that was commented above; is that Harper in 2008 refused to see an economic crisis happening because he had already adopted the Republican (Bush) doctrine when he asked the CMHC to open up the credit taps in 2007 which we all know how that resulted in the USA. We have a current PC party that is well on his way of increasing our national debt with another $150-200 Billion. We will feel the pain sooner or later, but my guess is that it will have to be dealt with later when the current party runs for the exits.
January 28th, 2010 at 11:39 am
Oh!
I was running a show without Logic.An idiot who tells people around Marinaside Cresecnt that he is a DJ will run the show on VCI.
WOW.
January 28th, 2010 at 11:22 am
@Informer 10:
Whatsoever most of educated people waste their time to correct things instead of constructing something solid or else
This is the drivel from a dude who no doubt owns millions in Vancouver Real estate.
God, I hate this godforsaken town where fuckin’ idiots run the show.
Only in Vancouver…
January 28th, 2010 at 11:21 am
#54 C, so you don’t like to hear the truth about starving seniors getting ripped off and ending up in the food bank lines? How about the fact that Canada leads the world in citizens killed at the hands of police? Oh you don’t like that either. You don’t want to hear about homelessness either cause it makes you uncomfortable? Too bad. Bad fiscal policy on priorities leads to hospital shortages, no school books, doubling welfare rates, rising unemployment, rising taxes bother you too? What else?
Crabby, you need to get real.
January 28th, 2010 at 11:14 am
@logic: In English “Logic” is a pre-school teacher who look for spell mistake during boom time then disappear in bust time in fear of losing his job.
Once he was yelling at his mum asking her about his underwear Logic did not calm down unless his mum told him that he is wearing it but story did not end here because Logic start yelling at his Father asking him about his under shirt but his father told Logic that he is wearing it.
When his parents asked him where he is heading? Logic says he is getting late for school.
Isn’t it SUNDAY today ? Asked his father.
Logic was ashamed with red face.
Whatsoever most of educated people waste their time to correct things instead of constructing something solid or else these greaterfools should have become homeowners by now.
January 28th, 2010 at 11:12 am
“eliminating the scourge of homeless, drug addicts, panhandlers and prostitutes”
I presume that this was sarcasm. Although I rarely go downtown, I had to go to a conference at the Westin Bayshore on tuesday and I travelled up Hastings at about 115pm. the place was crowded and there were a lot of dubious looking types. My point of reference is the same corner, 20 years ago, having to wait for the bus at Hastings and Main. Have others observed the same thing?
January 28th, 2010 at 11:10 am
None of the so-called professionals predicted the 20% decline in Van RE that began in 2008. They predicted price increases. They never predict anything but price increases. Their job is to “predict” price increases. Their paycheck depends on prices increases.
Their “predictions” are self-interested and have no credibility.
January 28th, 2010 at 10:58 am
“If you want to make a difference beat their view in following orders……”
—————
WTF do you mean? At least try to write English.
January 28th, 2010 at 10:48 am
Who’s predictions are off the mark? The Conference Board?
Are you trying to say the predictions here were off? Because I think we mostly had it right, people have been saying for years that the market is overinflated and will eventually crash. Many of us predicted 2008 as the year things would come unglued and all indicators were that our prediction was correct until the government stepped in so I don’t really see what you’re getting at here.
I suppose it’s like predicting you’ll hit a home run, the ball’s sailing, clearly on a trajectory to leave the park when it hits a seagull and falls within the park. The methods you used to make the prediction were good it’s just there was an unpredictable intervention of factors that caused your predictions to fall short of the mark.
January 28th, 2010 at 10:25 am
Drachen : “The data you provided, without any information on the methods used to arrive at those predictions is useless.”
Of course using data and analysis to produce predictions that have been wildly off the mark for years is also useless.
January 28th, 2010 at 10:10 am
@Informer 10:
“They are deifinitley better than VCI shills like Vhb,Garth,Freako etc.”
You don’t really know what a shill is do you? Oh and don’t forget Robert Shiller (yeah the guy who predicted the tech bust and one of the most respected economists in North America) in your list. They are worse than all the above because all the above provide the REASONING behind their beliefs.
“We are free to criticise someone by beating anyones view but calling someone shills without beating their view produce nothing other than a person with lack of knowledge.”
Are you trying to say, we should criticize the methods and logic behind their assessment rather than attacking the group? If so I agree completely. The only problem is they don’t release their methods, so it’s just a bunch of hot air. If you know the methods they’re using then feel free to bring them up and we can destroy them in a proper fashion. But saying, “Well they told me so it must be true.”, is as useless as saying, “They’re a bunch of shills, therefore they are wrong.” Neither is a proper constructive argument, so, shills or not it doesn’t matter. The data you provided, without any information on the methods used to arrive at those predictions is useless.
January 28th, 2010 at 10:00 am
@johnny O:
“I argued that it was simply a cash grab by the city and that I was not benefiting from paying hire taxes as I was not speculating on my house”
The problem is that you, like so many other people don’t understand how the assessments work. The city has a budget and they tax accordingly, if your house doubles in assessed price at the same time as everyone else’s house does your tax bill does not increase, the assessment is simply to determine your share.
January 28th, 2010 at 8:20 am
@logic:
BIG NO
Since you start posting here i did not find any economy or r.e. in your logic except renting,CB Canada does have think tanks with access to hardcore data.They are deifinitley better than VCI shills like Vhb,Garth,Freako etc.
We are free to criticise someone by beating anyones view but calling someone shills without beating their view produce nothing other than a person with lack of knowledge.
If you want to make a difference beat their view in following orders……
Do you think Vancouver economy is not going to grow by 4.5% in 2010 ?
Do you think real estate is not getting strong than ever?
January 28th, 2010 at 5:13 am
http://www.economist.com/world.....extfeature
It’s the fundamentals, stupid.
How far is price/rent in Vancouver above its long run average? Hint: 3 digits.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:58 am
Back in 06 I sat in front of an assessment review panel to have my property assessment lowered. I argued that it was simply a cash grab by the city and that I was not benefiting from paying hire taxes as I was not speculating on my house, but rather wanted to raise my kids in my neighborhood for quite some time. Needless to say, I lost my appeal.
I watched from 07-09 the property rise on average another 7% a year. But low and behold, my 2010 assessment showed an 8% drop! Now I don’t live in the Vancouver area, but I am 100% sure that Vancouverites as well as those folks in Victoria are paying the bulk of the taxes for these Olympics. Their property assessments have continued to increase whereas other municipalities have reversed a bit.
So let them pay $6000+ in property taxes to support our government spending if they foolishly think that they are enriching themselves.Most can’t even use their new found wealth to move elsewhere as the prices all over the lower mainland & Victoria have shot up equally.Going from one $800k shit-box to another amounts to what?
Greater fools indeed.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:20 am
(mis)informer, you do realise that the Conference Board of Canada are a bunch of shills, no?
January 27th, 2010 at 11:27 pm
OLYMPICS GOLD FOR VANCOUVER
“Vancouver expected to post best economic growth of any Canadian city in 2010″.-Confrence Board of Canada.
Canada’s third-largest city will see economic growth leap by 4.5 per cent this year.Toronto #2.
January 27th, 2010 at 11:22 pm
The sad part is these “micro condos” will probably sell out in two days. “Two for me and two for my hubbund.”
January 27th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
For those hacking Garth for his 15% prediction, he has offered clarification, it’s 15% over the next YEAR. 2011 and 2012 will be the big hit by his calculations, I have to say that seems about right to me, we won’t see a landslide in 2010, the first year of a real estate bubble crash is never that dramatic if you look at all the recent examples around the world.
If anything 2010 should look a lot like 2008 when the government stopped the bleeding with extreme measures, only this time the government gas tank is empty so there will be no stopping it once the ball starts a rollin’.
January 27th, 2010 at 10:26 pm
Those Apple tablets would be the perfect size TV for your micro condo. Gotta love the big screen. Then you can jump your car:
http://citizenpower.today.com/.....ny_car.jpg
January 27th, 2010 at 10:10 pm
@patriotz: I seem to remember we talked and posted this article a long while back. Still a very good read.
January 27th, 2010 at 9:37 pm
how about call it vPod?
January 27th, 2010 at 8:56 pm
@realpaul: Get some counseling buddy.
January 27th, 2010 at 8:55 pm
Superb article by Murray Dobbin in the Tyee. Someone is finally calling a spade a spade. Don’t recall it being discussed in this forum.
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009.....WillBurst/
January 27th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
#46 Conde Nasty sells papers to Americans who think ice cream is ‘a bit spicy’. Americans wouldn’t know Chinese food if it bit em in the ass. Last time I was in Chinatown SF they were surprised as hell to see a white devil in the place.
American chinese food is take out of the regurgitated crap like chicken chow mein and egg rolls we used to get here in the 1960′s in the greasy spoons after Yung Chow Phat and the kitchen staff pissed in the tea if a whiteman walked in.
No question the chinese food has improved here to mediocre. But ‘best in the world’ c’mon, not that tired old line again. Whats that line about ‘fool me once?’
January 27th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
#37 Anus, so thats your ‘big burn’? Wow, your contributions are so incredibly toilet paperish, for a self described nobody that is.