Rennie ‘guarantees’ post Olympic values
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January 19th, 2010 at 12:54 pm
“That’s not entirely true, we have EA (and various other video-game and FX companies), 1-800 GOT JUNK, Squirrel (the POS company, no not THAT POS, the other POS).”
And how much do these companies pay? They’re not even worth mentioning for the most part. Even the film industry is almost dead now thanks to not keeping up with tax incentives offered elsewhere.
Vancouver is an overgrown fishing and logging village with delusions of grandeur …
January 19th, 2010 at 11:58 am
if hubris was a criteria YVR would be up there
in the pantheon of the gods…… jus’ sayin’
January 19th, 2010 at 10:33 am
@crabman:
“They came up with 12 criteria, and rank cities by the number of criteria they meet:”
Actually they have four criteria;
Global Service Centre in: Banking, Accountancy, Advertising and Legal.
Then they rate each city from 0-3 1 being a minor provider 3 being major. So I’m guessing Vancouver probably gets a 1 or 2 for Advertising, I can’t see any of the other categories where we’d earn a point.
January 19th, 2010 at 10:13 am
There is actually a Globalization and World Cities Study Group & Network that attempts to rate cities in regards to their “Worldclassness”. They came up with 12 criteria, and rank cities by the number of criteria they meet:
January 19th, 2010 at 9:51 am
@patriotz:
“Vancouver has not one bank, not one multinational…”
That’s not entirely true, we have EA (and various other video-game and FX companies), 1-800 GOT JUNK, Squirrel (the POS company, no not THAT POS, the other POS).
Hmm not very many really, but there are SOME.
January 19th, 2010 at 9:21 am
@patriotz: Portland and San Diego are more on target, but of course mentioning them to the bulls is like showing a cross to Dracula.
Correction – Portland has Nike and Intel, among a few others… Portland has a way better fundamental economic foundation than Vancouver in several ways.
January 19th, 2010 at 4:39 am
@Purp-A:
That’s ridiculous. Manhatten has a population of about 2 million out of NYC pop of 8 million out of Metro New York (remember just across the river you’re in New Jersey, etc.) pop of 16 million.
Westchester County, where Tim Geithner can’t sell his house for $1.6 million, is just 1/2 hour from Manhatten and is the proper counterpart to Kerrisdale and Shaughnessey.
CoV has 500K out of a metro of 2 million.
And consider for a minute the relative concentration of corporate offices and high paying jobs between the two cities. Vancouver has not one bank, not one multinational, not one international or even national airline, not one international organization (even Greenpeace is gone), in sum SFA.
The pretension and self-importance of this city are mind-boggling. Vancouver isn’t even a peer of Seattle economically. Portland and San Diego are more on target, but of course mentioning them to the bulls is like showing a cross to Dracula.
If you want a fair comparision to the Big Apple CoV versus NYC minus Manhatten would be more like it. But even Brooklyn has the world headquarters of the Jehovah’s Witnesses.
January 19th, 2010 at 1:04 am
Hmm, our contract expires in July.
We’d better be getting 18% over 4 years this time, as opposed to the 2% a year we got last time (when times were actually good).
January 19th, 2010 at 12:36 am
Rennie on Xinhuanet Casino. LOL
January 18th, 2010 at 11:53 pm
I guess the recession is over, Glad I rent and can GTFO of here before the bill is due!!!! 16 – 18% WTF!!!
January 18th, 2010 at 11:46 pm
16 – 18% pay increase for Handydart drivers over 4 years. LMAO!!!
http://www.theprovince.com/Med.....story.html
January 18th, 2010 at 11:45 pm
16 – 18% pay increase for Handydart drivers over 4 years. LMAO!!!
January 18th, 2010 at 11:02 pm
Luckily, Mr. Rennie is putting up his own personal fortune against the 10’s of billions of dollars that will be lost this year by owners of Vancouver real estate.
Right Bob?
January 18th, 2010 at 9:50 pm
I took a walk downtown along Granville Street the other day, watching the frantic activity setting up new store fronts, cleaning signs, and in general putting up a fake facade on this pretentious city.
I also heard it in the news that the fake tram line will start operating this week, with real trams borrowed for a few weeks from Brussels, so that we can get a glimpse of how public transit in a real city looks like. (The hope being that the visitors will think it is actually ours.)
I expect walking the same walk on Granville in a few months time, watching the new stores being boarded up as the tourists leave, the homeless re-claim the streets and the city reverts to its true self.
January 18th, 2010 at 9:04 pm
@Drachen:
Maybe if housing was affordable, we wouldn’t have to commute so far and traffic would be less.
January 18th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
Anon Manhattan is a diverse place. There are still areas that have high crime rates. Like every city there are parts that attract the aristocracy — because that’s what is really meant by “world class” as far as I can tell — but looking at the people who live in Vancouver they for the most part don’t “belong” to the same magnitude of wealth, fame, and power prevalent in other cities, even in Canada.
And that’s OK as far as I’m concerned. The fact that we need to compare Vancouver to anywhere is all the proof I need that it has a ways to go.
January 18th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
@jesse: It’s a big island
No it’s not it’s tiny just under 60km2. Vancouver proper is twice that. Metro Vancouver is almost 50 times larger.
Where according to you is “World Class”?
January 18th, 2010 at 7:55 pm
“Also when I said New York is world class I mean Manhattan, no one in their right mind thinks Queens is world class”
Exactly what part of Manhattan are you talking about that’s “world class”? It’s a big island. And North Van is, let me guess, Connecticut?
I drove down Broadway the other day and thought of catching dinner and a show. Then I remembered I was in VANCOUVER.
January 18th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
When you say New York, are you really talking Manhattan?
Yes I am. When we talk about Vancouver we really need to take into account the lower mainland. So relatively Vancouver proper is compared to Manhattan while Burnaby, Richmond, New West, Surrey ect. are comapred to the Bronx, Queens ect.
Most cities have long ago amalgamated all their suburbs while Vancouver has not so it is important to keep that in mind when comparing Vancouver to other cities. Really Vancouver is the center of the much larger lower mainland.
Also when I said New York is world class I mean Manhattan, no one in their right mind thinks Queens is world class. Surly we can all agree on that.
January 18th, 2010 at 6:28 pm
Vancouver is to New York what Winnepeg is to Vancouver, eh? A little google shows that the median home price in New York (all five borough included) is US$379,000. (http://tinyurl.com/ykxswq3) Interestingly, around a 25% drop from peak in summer of ‘06.
According the Royal LePage, average home price in Van across all types is $592,000.
When you say New York, are you really talking Manhattan?
January 18th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
“Rennie probably thinks he’s ‘Too Big To Fail’. His ego maybe…”
You know…it’s NOT like we haven’t seen his kind in this town before.
I remember another bigshot realtor, Alex diCimbriani,(1970-80’s) who boasted about his “City Within A City” nonsense in the West End.
And, of course, who can forget Geoff Stephens of Greyfriars? He was a pompous…oh, never mind.
So, Rennie types come and go. No big deal.
January 18th, 2010 at 5:24 pm
I posted that link sorry for the confusion I hit the submit before adding a Name and it just used yours.
I called it really interesting because there are frequent debates on this blog about Vancouver and how it doesn’t deserve its “world class” label. This article is discussing that very issue written by someone who left Vancouver and moved to New York (A world class city by any definition I’d believe). More importantly from my point of view this person has no vested interest in making Vancouver look good or bad either way.
If the person described in the article an Average Vancouverite is an interesting question. My opinion is they are, honestly it didn’t even occur to me to think otherwise. A house in the North Shore, 4 weeks off and regular vacations are pretty standard middle class acruments.
I think the author was making the same point that we often make about other less expensive places. That is if I moved to Winnipeg image the things I could buy with all the money I’d save on housing. Comparing New York to Vancouver is much like comparing Vancouver to Winnipeg in terms of price at least.
January 18th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
That’s probably true, I’ll accept that you used the term “working class”, in an incorrect way (in my opinion anyhow).
January 18th, 2010 at 5:19 pm
Purp, sorry I did not see #17 before firing out #20. Sometimes this blog moves fast, sometimes it moves slow.
And my intent was just some friendly ribbing. It is a slow news day.
January 18th, 2010 at 4:54 pm
@Drachen, regarding the ‘working class’ neighborhoods, what I was trying to say was that the notion us going back to a world where the average family could buy a SFH in these westside neighborhoods is probably done. Some families will opt to densify (townhouses, condos etc.), some just move further away into more affordable neighborhoods. How is this different from any major, growing city? The high paying jobs and the wealth stay concentrated in the business core and new population centers pop up farther and farther out. That’s not to say that I don’t think the market is overpriced and we are due for a correction, just that it won’t correct back to where hardcore bears would like.
January 18th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
@Drachen, I understand your annoyance with shoddy RE journalism, it’s certainly rampant these days. I read the article (after someone else named Purp posted it), and to me it’s not an article about RE, it’s simply one person’s experience and their take on the ‘best place on earth’ label. It’s an editorial for pete’s sake! Slate even labels itself as an editorial magazine, it’s not the Reuter’s of online media.
January 18th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
An outreach worker i know just told me they are giving away Olympics tickets at homeless shelters
January 18th, 2010 at 4:17 pm
@20 SD92129 – Once again, whoever posted that wasn’t me, so I can’t comment on the choice of words ‘really interesting’
January 18th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
North Carolina’s State Motto is ‘Esse Quam Videri’ – To Be, Rather Than To Seem.
I think Vancouver’s motto could be the exact opposite to that. To Seem, Rather Than To Be.
January 18th, 2010 at 3:26 pm
Rennie probably thinks he’s ‘Too Big To Fail’. His ego maybe…
January 18th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
Purp: no big deal, but my comment was that you used the words “…really interesting…”
If you had said “another crappy one-sided op-ed not even backed by a limited survey”, i would have skipped it and spent the time avoiding work somewhere else.
I was hoping that you had filtered out the flotsam.
January 18th, 2010 at 2:21 pm
@Purp:
“those days are gone, just like those of Kitsilano being a working class neighborhood.”
I take offence to this too. Kitsilano, Dunbar, Pt. Grey Shaughnessy and the West End (and maybe a few others) are not working class neighbourhoods (all in about the same price range). Who DOES live there? I mean you’re talking about 25% or more of the housing in Vancouver proper and the only people who can afford to live there are those who are in the top 5-10% of the population and that doesn’t seem odd to you? Does that really seem sustainable to you?
January 18th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
The “bitterness” (actually annoyance but if you can’t tell the difference between a 500k property and a 1.5 million property I can’t blame you for not being able to tell the difference between bitterness and annoyance now can I?) stems from the media’s reluctance to publish properly balanced perspectives. This article is merely another example of salesmanship presented as journalism, which is, unfortunately, what has become of nearly every article on Vancouver Real Estate and so many other topics as “news” organizations deal with ever tighter budgets and so rely more and more on ‘free’ articles written by biased sources and/or they refuse to publish ANY articles which could offend their advertisers.
January 18th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Whoa, whoa, whoa, easy there bitter bears. I didn’t post this comment.
That said, I don’t really understand the bitterness, clearly this article isn’t about an ‘average’ family, and I wouldn’t consider a view property in North Vancouver an average home in an average area anymore, those days are gone, just like those of Kitsilano being a working class neighborhood. That’s the rub with growing cities.
January 18th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
yes, but this blog doesn’t masquerade as “news”.
January 18th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
Purp: did you call it “really interesting” just to trick us into reading it?
Her opinion based on-
Okanagan wine: check
Order in Thai: check
5 bedroom house where you have to cross a bridge to downtown: check
2 cars: check
view of downtown and the industrial port (from a vantage point such as N. Van): check
Did I miss anything else that qualifies this as the “best city int he world”…
From Slate’s website:
How do I apply for an internship at Slate?
The Slate D.C. office hires interns for the spring, summer, and fall. Spring and fall applicants must be full-time students. Applications should include a résumé, three clips (published articles, blog entries, and classroom assignments all acceptable), and a short critique of a story that’s appeared in Slate recently. E-mail only: Please keep messages under 200 KB, and no PDF files. Send e-mail to dcoffice@slate.com. The deadline for summer internships in D.C. is March 1, 2010.
We can all write our own op-ed and have it published. Then again, that is essentially what this blog does.
January 18th, 2010 at 12:59 pm
These RE pumpers sound more and more like sleazy used car salesmen every day.
@Purp: “Tonight, though, Vancouver is looking pretty good. Kristin, my high-school friend, shows me around the house she has just bought with her fiancé. It has five bedrooms and a deck overlooking the inlet and the city. They each have a car and take elaborate vacations—to Patagonia and Northern Italy in recent years. She laments that her four weeks of annual holiday are not enough. Through the window, down the hill and across the water, the city lights wink on and off while we eat our ordered-in Thai food with Okanagan wine. I am forced to concede that the best-city list-makers might be onto something.”
Yes, I’m sure if you can afford a 5br house in North Van, two cars and “elaborate” vacations Vancouver is quite pleasant. 4 weeks vaction? Govt job? For most people though, affording an average house in an average neighborhood means foregoing all those pleasures and a lot more. I love it when people take some crap like this and extrapolate it to the general public.
January 18th, 2010 at 12:36 pm
“”I’ll guarantee it won’t hurt our values.”
The thing is, if he had actually guaranteed that prices wouldn’t drop he might have actually given some owners legal recourse to come after him when prices DO drop.
He didn’t say that prices won’t drop there though, he just said he guaranteed the Olympics wouldn’t CAUSE prices to drop, and that’s an unprovable proposition (as I’m sure he knows perfectly well).
“I’ll guarantee it will maintain our values.”
Again, he leaves himself a pretty wide margin of wiggle room there because he doesn’t give a time-frame for ‘values’ to be maintained over. So is he saying for a week? A year? Indefinitely? Who knows!
January 18th, 2010 at 11:54 am
@patriotz:
Patriotz raises another interesting point: the fact that no one in the “corridors of power” gives two shakes of a lamb’s tail what’s happening out here in BC.
The fact that we’re not even on the radar for the known universe (sorry to all who think this “Best Place on Earth” and everyone wants to live here blah blah blah – vomit bag please…), I think is a big reason why the bubble has become so completely ridiculous out here. That, combined with the fact that everyone here seems to be either high or completely delusional…
It’s also why if people who are stretched beyond their means think the Feds are going to run to their assistance, they may be sorely disappointed. If housing values were as completely inflated vis a vis incomes in Ontario or Quebec, there would be an emergency parliamentary hearing. In BC…
BC could fall into the ocean tomorrow and no one would notice.
January 18th, 2010 at 11:50 am
http://www.slate.com/id/2241226/entry/2241227/
A view of Vancouver from someone who lives in New York. Really Interesting
January 18th, 2010 at 11:44 am
I remember is when Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck made his playoff guarantee at midfield at Lambeau in 2004. Hasselbeck guaranteed victory after the Seahawks won the coin toss against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card. He then proceeded to throw a game winning interception to Packers’ Cornerback Al Harris for the winning score.
January 18th, 2010 at 11:23 am
“Don’t make me laugh!”
If you did not get lay off notice it’s time to smile buddy,Cheer UP like Bob Rennie.I am going to work!
January 18th, 2010 at 10:56 am
“Vancouver real estate went up through recession.”
You mean you think the recession is over in this province?
Who have YOU been listening to? Michael Campbell? Global TV News?
Don’t make me laugh!
It’s just beginning here, chum!
January 18th, 2010 at 10:41 am
This talk of a guarantee is just advertising fluff and puffery, not an enforceable contract.
For the sake of discussion, Rennie, could actually offer a guarantee on values for RE he sells very easily and at no risk to himself.
He would incorporate a company called Rennie Guarantee Corp. which would issue the guanrantees on all homes Rennie sells. Rennie gets the commissions and Rennie Guarantee Corpo gets all the liability in a bust. When the bust comes, the first claim against the Guarantee Corp. would bankrupt it and all other claims aginst the corp would be worthless because Rennie would ensure that Rennie Guarantee Corp. held minimal assets. (perhaps some office furniture and one computer and a phone).
Rennie’s reputation would be toast but in a bust he is not going to make much money selling RE anyway. May as well have one last push to earn commissions before the market collapses and take the money and live like a king for the reast of his life.
That is how you can offer guarantees and be shielded form the consequences through the separate legal identity and limited liability of the corporation.
The only way to protect yourself is to ask for a personal guarantee from Rennie. He would never give it. Moreover, most buyers would never think to ask.
January 18th, 2010 at 10:32 am
Rennie could offer a written guarantee if a market crash would bankrupt his company anyways. Like AIG writing CDOs with no reserves. There’s no reason to do that though. If investors are looking a Vancouver condos they’ve drunk the kool-aid already.
January 18th, 2010 at 10:31 am
There are always two sides of a coin so i think Bob Rennie is better than Drachen as Drachen still owe Satv more $350,000 from the bet he lost to Satv and two year of anually compunded interest rates on 25% of the Value of a house that Drachen is currently renting.
Rennie is better than Garth Turner as Garth owe Canadian bears almost 50% value of Canadian housing prices,His own book is witness that his writter is wrong.
Rennie is better than Professor Robert Shiller despite bubblicious call Vancouver real estate went up through recession.
Bears leaders also owe them 70% Value of market or we can just call it market forces that drive the market that way VHB and RENNIE won’t be responsible for anything,Nope?
January 18th, 2010 at 9:10 am
I’ll take that “guarantee” Bob, with two conditions: one, you give the “guarantee” to me in writing and two, I get senior creditor status.
That won’t be a problem though, since you’re good for it and real estate only goes up, right?
January 18th, 2010 at 7:24 am
Guaranteed pricing? Hmm,,that reminds me of a couple I knew who owned a house in Burnaby. Bought in 1979, sold in 1981 at the April peak. The realty company guaranteed them a sales price. So, they went and snooped around the Kelowna area and bought there. When they finally moved sveral MONTHS later, the collapse had begun in earnest and the house never did sell.
I doubt the company was ever that foolish again.
January 18th, 2010 at 6:11 am
If anyone had said what Rennie did about securities they would be hung up to dry by the regulators and courts. Take a look at the ABCP fiasco. I strongly believe that those who sell RE should be held to the same level of accountability.
Also – Mish on the global housing bubble:
http://globaleconomicanalysis......anada.html
From a commenter:
Well of course “Canada” didn’t, BC was just starting to climb out of the early 80’s bust and Alberta was still in it. The commenter is talking about Toronto which of course to those who live there equals “Canada”.
There is a remarkable lack of awareness among many (apparently Canadian) commenters that (1) RE markets in Canada, just like in the US, were not correlated prior to the global bubble of this decade, and (2) much of Canada has not participated in the current bubble, making Canada-wide figures of little relevance.
I’m not going to blame Mish himself as it’s not his business to focus on the domestic Canadian economy. But the locals should know better.
There are also a few bull commenters spouting the usual brainless rationalizations.
January 18th, 2010 at 6:02 am
Pretty bold marketing ploy by Bob. This in a market where even Cameron Muir, the uber bull, has acknowledged another potential BC housing bust.