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February 8th, 2010 at 10:42 pm
Dave, I hear you. People will finally hear about the backwater hill known as Whistler.
Speaking of which, any idea why sales volumes has halved two years in a row there? And is it a good thing or a bad thing that in 2009, 75% of all sales were to Lower Mainland-ites?
February 8th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
#74 realpaul – best post I’ve read in a long while. Well said.
February 8th, 2010 at 10:25 pm
@Vansanity:
Good point. Flaherty can deny there’s a “housing bubble in Canada” since median prices are only $300kish. However, I think we all know that housing bubble in Vancouver is a reality, and perhaps he would not deny that.
February 8th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
I keep hearing the term the “Canadian Housing Market”. Is there such a thing?
I recall hearing story after story about the US Housing Market and how strong it was and how it had no bubble. Meanwhile bloggers like most the bears on here saying that there is no US housing market, rather each pocket in the US is its own market. Well we all know how that went down. Once again the blogger’s were right.
So, sure there’s no Canadian Housing Market bubble, because there’s no such market. But there is a Vancouver RE Bubble, n’est pa?
February 8th, 2010 at 9:58 pm
@Disbelief:
The Lower Mainland.
February 8th, 2010 at 9:53 pm
@logic:
They aren’t just developers. That is only part of their business. I looked at their financials back in 2005 and thought their balance sheet was pretty sketchy and that was during the boom years. Their debt levels and obligations have always been relatively high. From what I recall, the only thing that kept them from going bankrupt for the last number of years was their ability to sell off/develop land assets. The market correction and difficulty is obtaining capital was the nail in their coffin.
Developers and development are a different game altogether.
In any case, how does the health of Intrawest relate to Whistler being a premium market?
February 8th, 2010 at 9:45 pm
I guess we’ll have to wait and see. What about the poor stupid schmucks that would buy in at $200k in the valley where are they from???
February 8th, 2010 at 9:37 pm
“Whistler is unique and is a premium market”
—————
Which is why Intrawest (developers) went bankrupt, hey? Start speaking sense or STFU Dave.
February 8th, 2010 at 9:30 pm
@Disbelief:
All of the above. Money isn’t a barrier to everybody. Whistler is unique and is a premium market. A lot of people who will attend the Olympics come from a demographic with lots of money. Real estate prices are sometimes a secondary issue. People will spend a million or two and might only use their place for a week a year (if at all).
Squamish and Pemberton will also appeal to a different demographic.
February 8th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
@Drachen:
Nah. Things are good. The future looks good. At least that’s the case from my little perch.
If I’m wrong, then you can bail me out.
February 8th, 2010 at 9:13 pm
@arit:
Well then if it’s proven ineffective at propping up prices and only slows down the fall (at best) in the states why would it have a different impact here?
February 8th, 2010 at 8:47 pm
Wow a $1.18 million home in Cloverhole on a small lot. The crack out there must be powerful or maybe there smoking horseshit out there. If that doesn’t spell bubble I cannot imagine what does.
Dave seems to be speaking out both sides of his mouth. Are these rich Europeans buying a $200k condo in the valley or a piece of recreational property in Squamish or Pemberton maybe. They are two very different animals one is possible the other is doubtful.
February 8th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Hi Drachen
Mortgage Moratorium means whatever you define it to be:
It can be this:
“A method for creating a moratorium period for a mortgage, comprising the following the steps: creating an equity loan amount to be loaned based upon the value of a mortgagee’s property; determining the monthly payment on the loan; determining a period of months which the mortgagee desires to avoid personally making monthly payments; placing a portion of the loan amount equal to the monthly payments for the desired period of months into a fund; and making the monthly payments for the predetermined period from the fund.
Read more: http://www.faqs.org/patents/ap.....z0f0Sl2qjH
Or any other method for postponing a foreclosure.
” Keeping foreclosures off the market by the banks”
Is a method used by US banks to prevent prices from falling. They artificially hold the foreclsed home to avoid price depreciation. Like crashing eggs and tomatoes during the GD.
Regards
arit
February 8th, 2010 at 8:11 pm
@arit:
“1. First home buyer tax credit.
2. Second home buyer tax credit.”
Will only have a maximum effect of increasing market levels to the amount saved.
“3. Mortgage moratorium.”
What does that mean?
“4. Home-owner bailout plan, refinances plan paid by taxpayer.”
Won’t keep prices afloat, just keeps them from falling too fast.
“5. Keeping foreclosures of the market by the banks.”
What?
“6. Return to 0/40.”
Minimal impact, maybe draw things out ’till next year at best.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
realpaul,
What are my chances of constructing a house NOT from plywood, on top of a buried barge (not buried deep, maybe 50cm)? In Richmond? I am thinking protection from earthquake, leaks and flood all in one… I am serious, what do you think?
Regards
arit
February 8th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
Drachen,
My friend, the tank is not empty. Here are the last fumes:
1. First home buyer tax credit.
2. Second home buyer tax credit.
3. Mortgage moratorium.
4. Home-owner bailout plan, refinances plan paid by taxpayer.
5. Keeping foreclosures of the market by the banks.
6. Return to 0/40.
All these measures WILL be taken by our clueless lords. It will delay the end, but cannot prevent it.
We have a crystal ball, remember? It’s all recorded in patrick.net et all.
My timeline is still a big party at my place in 2016, not before. Save the date. All bears and bulls are invited.
Regards
arit
February 8th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
CMHC seemes to think that the new home builders will be giving houses away for cheap and therefore ‘balance the market’.
Where do they find these commentators . Are they all doing crack with Vanoc?
http://www.montrealgazette.com.....story.html
February 8th, 2010 at 7:40 pm
@arit:
“The sudden apparition of fear and arguments in the blog is indirectly telling me the time is near.”
More shades of 2008. Again I have to say, the jump to historic low interest rates saved the market last time and it’s true, we Bears didn’t see that coming but the tank is empty, the government is out of tricks, the Emperor has no clothes and Dave is still wrong as ever.
I will enjoy winning our bet Dave, the time is coming, the market is turning, the end is nigh!
February 8th, 2010 at 7:39 pm
Domus,
Look, it is clear that when the fecal matter hits the ventilator all the ‘experts’ (read Tal, Flaherty, Harper, Rennie, Dave and friends) will say “Nobody could have seen it coming”.
If you mention people like ‘the bloggers’, their response will be a condescending look in their eyes and a response like “Yes, but those are the lunatics, the parias, the nobodies, the basement-dwellers, the gloomers… they did not really know what they were saying. They are insignificant, let’s just tax them as they are the only liquid ones now”.
Our consolation is only the lack of debt… and the stash.
Regards
arit
February 8th, 2010 at 7:15 pm
Wow! Even CTV talking about RE bubble today?
http://www.ctv.ca/generic/gene.....60610.html
I am really starting to think the tide has turned.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:11 pm
Yup, I have the same feeling as Arit. This might be the top. Loads of small pieces coming together for the beginning of the plunge. Of course, gravity has been defied before, so don’t hold your breath. But if we put in a double top, then I would call it!
I sincerely hope nobody will start saying ‘who could have known’ and ‘nobody saw it coming’. Somebody will have to hold politicians accountable: the current batch (both at provincial and federal level) have a lot of responsibilities.
PS Is it possible that this blog is read by more people than we think? Maybe it will come across like delusional or arrogant, but is it possible that some of the people who are finally discussing openly the shortcomings of the CHMC have taken the cue from the discussion on such blogs over the past few years?
February 8th, 2010 at 7:02 pm
I like it. The sudden apparition of fear and arguments in the blog is indirectly telling me the time is near. This is the peak. It will take a few more years until prices return to normal, but “my bear-senses” are telling me this is it.
We are seeing a surge in listings that will create the expected trigger which reverses the house prices, somewhere between now and July. This time they cannot lower the interest.
The best they can do is throw a few thousand dollars at first time home buyers, which might delay the end for a while, but it did not help in the US and will not help here.
The best place on earth is about to teach a few speculators a hard lesson…
Regards
arit
February 8th, 2010 at 6:39 pm
@ReadyToPop:
Wow, the worm certainly has turned. Back in 2002, they weren’t talking about getting rid of the CMHC. In fact, the FI thought that the feds weren’t doing enough to inflate house prices, er, “encourage home ownership” (page 3 of the following):
http://www.fraserinstitute.org.....ldhuis.pdf
What brought about this 11th hour move? Maybe because they realize that the bust is inevitable and they want to pretend that they were opposed all along to putting the taxpayers on the hook? That PDF above was the only Google match for “CHMC” and “Fraser Institute” prior to the new report. I know because that’s how I found the 2002 report.
Oh, BTW, I didn’t have time to read the new report, but I did search for “bubble” and guess what, I didn’t find it.
February 8th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
so dave, recreational buyers from Alberta will buy 200k shitty condos in Surrey then, will they? Cos you can’t get a condo in Whistler for 200k. FFS.
February 8th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
@Delusional:
The residential market only has a small component of foreign buyers at present. That will definitely grow after the Olympics, but it will still be relatively small.
I think the larger growth area is going to be in the recreational market. BC is a phenomenal place to have a recreational property, especially during the dry summer months. Whistler and Squamish will benefit from that respect.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:57 pm
I keep getting a laugh out of this propaganda point that ‘the Olympics will sell vancouver to the world’ bullshit. haven’t we been inundated with crap polls and articles about how we are already number one in the eye of the international media and traveller set etc etc, what about all those articles in Conde Naste etc? Wasn’t the city ‘sold’ during Expo 86? Are we now supposed to believe that nobody knew where we aere until now?
How many times do we have to throw a coming out party for this little whore?
February 8th, 2010 at 5:55 pm
Yeah, I liked Patriot’s doctor Strangelove reference as well.
“Flaherty has decided to ride this bomb all the way down to ground zero. Hold on to your hats.”
Like in the famous Kubrick mvie of 1964, I can imagine Flaherty riding an atomic bomb just dropped from a plane, with a cowboy hat on!
This market is going to implode so hard that it will be fun to watch.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
@Dave:
Dave, the comment was not in regards to price points but the absurd notion that Olympic visitors will buy here. We get millions of visitors every year and an incredibly small percentage probably fall far enough in love with the place to actually buy here.
Additionally, I’ll clarify that Vancouver is probably the worst real estate deal at all price points in the English speaking world.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
“This is the equivalent of a horse’s head in Flaherty’s bed.”
…and, spotting the Pigman!
…er, another movie, by the way. “O Lucky Man”.
Just sayin’…
February 8th, 2010 at 5:43 pm
Even the Fraser Institute sees taxpayer risk, in new study…
This study recommends that the Canadian government reduce taxpayer vulnerability, including withdrawing government guarantees from all mortgage insurers-public and private-and privatizing the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s mortgage insurance business.
Mortgage Finance Reform: Protecting Taxpayers from Liability
February 8th, 2010 at 5:37 pm
67 – Dave:
So you are suggesting that the Olympic tourists who are paying 500$ to watch some skinny rich kids play on a snowboard are going to buy a 200k 1-bed 1982 apparetment in Surrey? Yeah, that’s that I’d do if I was an Olympic tourist…
Come on, you’re not even trying anymore mr troll.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:35 pm
Drachen, no. Please inform me oh master of the dictionary.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:29 pm
@Delusional:
Not all buyers are looking for a $900k house.
There are lots of options at all price points across the Lower Mainland. For example, there are over 600 apartments that you can buy for under $200k.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:26 pm
@VR:
“They never ever try to sell their cities to attract new investment and build a better city…”
Ok… That would be ‘figuratively’ trying to sell the city. You do know the difference between ‘figuratively’ and ‘literally’ right?
February 8th, 2010 at 5:10 pm
@patriotz:
.
Does anyone remember the Seinfeld “pig man” episode. The one where Kramer thinks that he’s spotted a “pig man”–half-man, half-pig–in the hospital and tries to convince Jerry that the pig man is not just a figment of Kramer’s imagination. Kramer’s last line is hilarious and epitomizes that insanity of the Vancouver RE market.
Just like Kramer is telling Jerry to grab a dose of “reality”, the RE bulls are imploring patriotz to wake up to reality. Don’t you understand, patriotz, RE metrics don’t mean a thing. People are going to want to buy in Vancouver because Anton Apollo Ohno once skated at the Pacific Coliseum. Sure, the weather’s crappier than Phoenix, and the economic climate is worse than Seattle, but that glorious sheet of ice off of Renfrew Street, well if the milfs in Scottsdale knew about it, they’d be beating the door down to buy that million dollar shack across the street. “Wake up to reality,” indeed.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:21 pm
Looks like the regular real estate agent trolls are bored again. Olympic visitors are not prospective home buyers. I’d own over 30 houses around the world if I decided to buy based on the availability of beer and a good view. Our city has some good selling points, but let’s not pretend insipid Molson Canadian beer and a view of mountains is going to make 99.9% of the European and American visitors whip $900,000 out of their back pocket for the worst real estate deal in the English speaking world.
It’s just common sense.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
And some more bubble talk for Canada on international sites. This latest is from the ‘Mess that Greenspan Made’, one of the top rated econ blogs with CR and Mish:
http://themessthatgreenspanmad.....ubble.html
Funny that all these analysts (who usually make right calls and have great track records) are calling Canada’s RE market a “bubble”.
They must be wrong, hey? It can’t be that way. Canada is different! Here money grows on trees, right?
February 8th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
@domus:
But read this:
Smith doesn’t get that loose lending makes housing less affordable.
In fact, it appears he doesn’t seem to get that there is a bubble at all, and that he thinks the banks are inventing the issue for their own ends.
Disappointing, as he is usually on the ball. Someone should send him that article by Murray Dobbin, someone whom Smith is likely to pay attention to.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
@VR:
Why do you assume it was me? Check IP’s for posting. You might be pleasantly surprised.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:03 pm
@nonymouse: GREAT LINK! Thanks for clarifying that: I had all the info but had not put the two together! It just makes sense, doesn’t it?
My best theory was a coordination problem, like in the post for this thread. But this legal change might be the real trigger.
I am sure the lobby is in full-swing to pressure the government. And the government is in full swing to prolong the lifespan of this bubble. Crazy times!
The RE market in this city is in for a big drop in prices. At least a third, probably more, of the existing valuations will be shaved off in the next couple of years.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:59 pm
At YVR over the weekend I witnessed many, many disgusted European tourists riding the Canada line and joking about what a dump Vancouver is. They totally regret coming in the first place and will likely tell all their friends to stay away from Vancouver and the rest of Canada.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
VR,
Your assuming we don’t own. I know plenty of smart, rational BEARS that own but realise we are in for a reality check. Fortunately not all our assets (or identity) is tied up in one terribly illiquid, overvalued asset class. Good luck if that’s not your circumstance.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:53 pm
53 & 55
Nothing like stealing and posting under another handle eh “Not Much of a Name” because you want a some form of one up manship …pathetic
February 8th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
Looks like some people are figuring out why the banks would do this.
http://tinyurl.com/ydow9qw
February 8th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
Please stop stealing my name already. You bears are terrible people.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
52 – Troll, stop posting under my name. Just because you have nothing to add, leave my VR handle and posts alone.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
Why stop now? You sound like a little kid running with hos ball from the park because things didn’t go his way…lol
February 8th, 2010 at 3:45 pm
I’ll stop now. You’re all a bunch of resentful cunts in any case.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
Has Flaherty really made a decision? Sounds like “politician-speak” to me. Perhaps he’s not
going to tip off the market early.
“In terms of Canada, we’ve been watching and monitoring carefully and we continue to do that. There are certain tools available to the government if we choose to use some or all of them. As you know, we did so in 2008, and we’re continuing to watch.
Notice the G&M use the word “appears” when referring to Flaherty….stay tuned…RTP
February 8th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
@VR:
That handle means “virtual reality”, right?
I’ll tell you something – international RE investors tend to be a lot more interested in the numbers than local buyers. And anyone with a PC and an hour’s time can see that Seattle (same weather) is 1/2 the price of here and Phoenix (much better weather) is 1/4. They can also figure out pretty easily that Vancouver has about the worst RE metrics on the planet.