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February 23rd, 2010 at 8:49 pm
Didn’t I already dispell the thought of a Canadian Housing Market? How could there be a Canadian Housing Bubble?
Besides, even on a micro scale, like crabman says there is no set definition of what a bubble is, or even what a crash is. They say you can’t see a bubble until it pops and its in the rearview, and we certainly haven’t seen a pop or bust in this country, especially in Vancouver.
Also, this is the same BOC that said all is good and changed the regulations days later. They’re so full of shit it’s almost funny.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:48 pm
As mentioned succinctly in the article above…no Canadian bubble. Duh, like they’re signing their lives away for condos in Brooks Alberta? Why not address the obvious bubble territory…Vancouver for example. Pure doubletalk.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:36 pm
Question: How does one go about providing evidence that one’s landlord who has given notice to vacate due to family member moving into unit did not have family member actually living in unit for the 6 months required by BC Tenancy Act? Is evidence that house was sold during the 6 month time period enough or does one need evidence that new owners moved in? Thanks!
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:22 pm
@chip: Chaos begets chaos. If there’s one lesson of the 2000′s, it’s that rogue actors can rain destruction onto peoples’ lives and face no consequences whatsoever. The US government didn’t even try to capture Bin Laden. They had him at Tora Bora, they knew it, and they simply let him get away while preparing to invade Iraq. What does your neighbor think of that?
I have yet to see a sliver of justice in the world, and believe me I am all for it. The pattern of destruction has just continued on ever larger scales, with “bad guys” clearly running the show. Maybe in another 10 years we’ll all be “terrorists”. With a society is based on total falsehoods and contradictions, with no accountability for anyone, where does it end?
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:45 pm
Great graph of US inflation:
http://themessthatgreenspanmad.....rices.html
It seems that, once accounting for house costs to households, low interest rates are not so justifiable. Canada? Oh, no! We don’t have a bubble and house prices are just what the market makes them.
And anyway, when thigs start going south we can only bump up the CMHC a bit. It seems to work like a charm.
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:45 pm
Great graph of US inflation:
http://themessthatgreenspanmad.....rices.html
It seems that, once accounting for house costs to households, low interest rates are not so justifiable. Canada? Oh, no! We don’t have a bubble and house prices are just what the market makes them.
And anyway, when thigs start going south we can only bump up the CMHC a bit. It seems to work like a charm.
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:27 pm
“Hilarious. I’ll tell it to my neighbour who lost her brother-in-law in 9/11, and then her sister to suicide shortly after.”
Great, let us know what she says.
Because we really give a shit.
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:08 pm
@rp:
“Where’s Bin Laden when you need him?”
Hilarious. I’ll tell it to my neighbour who lost her brother-in-law in 9/11, and then her sister to suicide shortly after.
February 23rd, 2010 at 6:58 pm
>>>Perhaps this will happen next month for April 1?<<<
It already has. Normally the April listings would start flooding in March 01. This time they're early and they're in huge numbers.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....;bedrooms=
February 23rd, 2010 at 6:08 pm
@Starving Artist: “There’s going to be a flood of new rental listings after the Olympics…”
I monitor craigslist for my neighborhood of interest and haven’t noticed a spike yet. Although listings have been up over a year ago for some months now. WHile I wish listings DO spike up and flood the market, I’m wondering if this will indeed happen. I would figure that current listings for March 1 SHOULD indicate this already. Perhaps this will happen next month for April 1?
February 23rd, 2010 at 5:48 pm
@Pandora:
Hard, true, which is why they do it.
But not impossible. Recognize it for what it is, and free your mind from the musak.
February 23rd, 2010 at 4:04 pm
@rp:
Really nothing we haven’t heard before with respect to likely actions by the BoC and the Fed.
What will drive BoC and Fed actions is inflation concerns as shown by the bond market. There appears to be a 2.75% spread between short and long and they really can’t afford to let it get past 3%.
Rates are going up for sure.
http://www.bank-banque-canada......bonds.html
February 23rd, 2010 at 3:59 pm
Popagandas! Its amazing how bias the newspaper are. They have only print stories that will benefit their advertisers and never the other points of view. Thanks to blogs like this that exposes what the advertisers do not want people to know. All I can say is when the crash comes, the newpaper will be crying because the full page double spread will be the thing of the past.
February 23rd, 2010 at 3:42 pm
Also, from C.D. Howe:
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
Patriotz, any guess on how much influence these views have?
February 23rd, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Paul Jenkins of Troy: “It’s just a big wooden horse people! Nothing is wrong!”
February 23rd, 2010 at 3:34 pm
@someguy:
What the US government did, and what the Canadian government is doing now, is not a “mistake”. It is a deliberate strategy.
What is amazing is that the Canadian public can’t see that we are going down exactly down the same road as the US, not that the Cons want to take us there.
February 23rd, 2010 at 3:05 pm
@catfood_gourmet:
The ‘Vancouver Housing Blog’ started the ball rolling and a few other blogs followed suit (like this one) when VHB and some of the others quit the blog scene Pope kindly provided us all with this venue and it became a general housing blog but changing the name would have meant confusion for some of the blog’s followers so the name remained in spite of the broadened perspective.
Satisfied? Now let us get back to why you’re wrong and we’re right.
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:54 pm
Ok so this site is called vancouver condo info and no one here dreams of buying a condo? WTF are you losers doing here then? If you don’t ever want to buy a condo then why in the hell do you not call the site vancouver house info? Or vancouver forenter info?
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:35 pm
I don’t believe that anyone who was in his position would say we have a housing bubble regardless of what they really thought or the facts at hand. All they want to do is to sell their story, “talking their book” I think it’s called in the financial world.
It’s not lying it’s pure bullshit.
There is no concern about truth.
Just what ever will serves the story and agenda in the moment.
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:21 pm
@marcello: It gets hard to ignore what they say when they’re in the press every day shouting ” we don’t have a housing bubble! “.
This would be like ted haggerty shouting ” I’m not gay! “. Why keep bringing it up?
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:07 pm
@patriotz:
Nobody allowed them to lie. They are doing this to us because they don’t care. They are already don’t care about our opinions or the consequences of their inadvertent financial and social actions. Isn’t it amazing that they repeat the mistakes that USA governments already did a few year ago.
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:03 pm
After this thing pops, couple of years later this dude will say something like:
“I would certainly not say we could have establish that we were looking at a housing bubble at the time, therefore we could not have predicted that it is going to pop with such a loud fuckin’ bang”
See how easy it is to save a fat banker’s ass?
And as a reward for being so clever with words he gets a big, fat bonus too.
February 23rd, 2010 at 1:38 pm
What is it someone once said……”there’s no bubble here, just don’t let it pop”
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:54 pm
“I would certainly not say we are looking at a housing bubble” What an amazing multi-level clash of form and substance.
“I would … not say” = “I want to stay as far away from this conversation where I am expected to say something plain, simple, and obvious. Let’s pretend we are not talking, but if we were, here is what I would not say”.
“certainly” = “I am still not very comfortable lying, so I need this word as a boost, or I won’t have enough steam to utter that final part”.
“we are looking at” = “I need this extra verb to create an image of myself experiencing this bubble – as well as this case of me lying – from a distance. I don’t want to say simply ‘in a bubble’. Looking at tigers and typhoons is so much safer than being there.”
“housing bubble” = “Did you see that? I never said there is a bubble. I never said there is no bubble. Yet I used all the words and never lied. Clever, huh?”
He knows there is a bubble, but he can’t say so.
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:50 pm
@domus: IMHO calling it “lying” is too harsh – they simply CANNOT say those things because they know the effect it will have on the economy. And the reason is the economy is built on a house of cards with two suits: debt and confidence. We are miles and miles (kilometres and kilometres ?) away from having a “strong” economy. In a “strong” economy, Dodge, Flaherty or whoever could have a really pissy day, say the economy is a mess, and the country would simply shrug it off. But because we have this insane system built on debt and “confidence”, they absolutely CANNOT say anything bad – it would be irresponsible of them given our “economy” as it exists.
So the thing to do is ignore EVERYTHING they say. When one is forced to say only one thing, one is forced to say nothing. Their statements are contentless dribble.
Sad, but very true.
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:42 pm
There’s going to be a flood of new rental listings after the Olympics – didn’t a lot of people only allow short-term rentals in their units last year, so they could cash in on Olympic visitors? Well, whether or not they got those rich furriners to pay up, after the games they are going to need to rent those units out. Hello supply!
With inflation-adjusted rents already flat or negative, this place is going to be a renter’s paradise.
On the subject of China, it seems like they are doing a better job at true Keynesian stimulus than we are. Aren’t you supposed to save in the good times to spend in the bad? In the West, politicians cut taxes in the good times and run deficits, and then repeal tax cuts and run bigger deficits in the bad times. Who knows, it might turn out that a central planned economy with longer-term goals might have an advantage in this situation. Does it really matter if they are cooking the books, if it keeps a few billion people working? Personally, I’d rather avoid chaos.
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:39 pm
Rule #1 don’t trust the government they will lie cheat and steal whatever suits them best. It is no benefit to speak of a housing bubble. Don’t wait for it cause it won’t happen.
February 23rd, 2010 at 11:16 am
Some news from beautiful Orange County (I know, I know, Vancouver is paradise, but the old O.C. is not too bad itself, is it?)
Shadow Rental Market Pushing down Rents
http://www.calculatedriskblog......rents.html
Here is an interesting bit:
“Rents are down and vacancies are up. Demand is off, and we attribute really to to the fact that here has been a pretty significant erosion of jobs in the Orange County markets. And it is having a trickle down effect. In addition to that, our members are saying that they are competing quite a bit with what historically has not been a competitor for us – that’s the gray market or the shadow market – which are condominium rentals and single family home rentals and things of that nature. There is just a lot of product on the market.”
Sounds familiar? Oversupply of condos? Loss of jobs? In an economy with close to zero (!) interest rates?
The writing is on the wall for Vancouver, although apparently we are not in a bubble. Our government officials don’t seem to let a day go by without reminding us of that.
Just pump a bit more liquidity in the system through the CMHC. After all that is ‘free’ money and taxpayers should not mind too much.
The CMHC is the new engine of economic growth in BC.
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:55 am
Wall street bonuses up 17%. In what sector are these bonuses being paid? It smells like Wall Street is trying to start another “bubble”. I suspect its in the energy sector. If you find out who is getting these bonuses and for what – you may on the ground floor for the next bubble mania.
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:55 am
@best_place_on_meth:
All they need to say is that the BoC’s mandate is to target consumer price inflation – which is very low – and they are not going to comment on asset prices, and that the issue of RE prices is for the government and CMHC to deal with.
Saying anything more is deliberately misleading people.
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:29 am
Really, did anyone expect the central bank to admit that there is a bubble and start a stampede for the exits?
They say what they need to say.
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:29 am
@catfood_gourmet:
“Your dreams of owning a condo in Vancouver are just pure fantasy.”
You can live in a 350 square foot condo and try to have a nice life there in the future with a wife and kids (if you can find someone who can get over how poorly you live and marry someone like you). Personally I’ll be enjoying living in a nice sized single family home in one of the better neighbourhoods in a couple of years. But hey, I guess Bulls just have small dreams.
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:08 am
Wall St. bonuses rise 17%:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1477952/
Where’s Bin Laden when you need him?
February 23rd, 2010 at 10:07 am
@crabman:
Yes there is, it’s when buyers have no credible prospect of getting a positive return on an asset from income and they must rely on capital gains to offset losses.
Every economist knows it too. But those like Jenkins hope nobody else does.
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:53 am
@VHB:
Yeah that’s what gets me. Like it was Walton’s Mountain instead of what it really is, a share in a strata corporation. You don’t really own it because you have no real control over the property.
I can understand someone being willing to pay a premium over rent to own a house – I did so myself until interest rates went down – but for a condo, I just don’t get it. Unless they are simply counting on a greater fool to right the equation, and that assumption is going to turn out very badly.
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:50 am
One reason they are able to keep making these absurd statements is that there is no standard definition of the word ‘bubble’. Prices could double this year, and they could still say there is no bubble! I would love to hear them answer the following question:
Based on long-term averages for cost of ownership vs. renting, price/rent ratios and price/income ratios, are housing prices 25% or more above normal?
Of course no one in the media will ask this question, and I’m not sure if anyone in government would answer it if they did. Welcome to 21st century democracy!
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:30 am
Breaking News!!!
Paul Jenkins, the senior Deputy Governor, will be cooperating with ex-Iraqi Information Minister Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf in an upcoming press release. The statements are being prepared as we speak, to appear in the Vancouver Sun Tomorrow!
“There are no American infidels[read:bubbles] in Baghdad[read:Vancouver]. Never!”
“They are not in Baghdad[read:Vancouver]. They[read:bloggers] are not in control of any airport[read:truth]. I tell you this. It is all a lie. They lie. It is a hollywood movie. You do not believe them.”
“We’re giving them[read:savers] a real lesson today. Heavy doesn’t accurately describe the level of casualties we have inflicted.”
“Just look carefully, I only want you to look carefully. Do not repeat the lies of liars. Do not become like them. Once again, I blame al-Jazeera[read:blogs] before it ascertains what takes place. Please, make sure of what you say and do not play such a role.”
“We will welcome them[read:bloggers] with bullets and shoes.”
“They’re not even within 100 miles of Baghdad[read:Vancouver].. They are not in any
place. They hold no place in Iraq[read:Vancouver].. This is an illusion … they are
trying to sell to the others an illusion.”
regards
arit
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:26 am
“our dreams of owning a condo in Vancouver are just pure fantasy”
Does any sane person ‘dream’ of OWNING a condo? It’s a freakin’ apartment building. Living in a condo is great. The manner of my tenure, however, is irrelevant.
Whether I own or rent affects my life zero–except that renting costs me 2 large a month less. Thanks, landlord!
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:26 am
Perhaps he’s just choosing his words very carefully (as central bankers are known to do). His comment was:
“I would certainly not say we are looking at a housing bubble,”
Of course he wouldn’t say it. He’s not saying there isn’t one either – he’s merely saying that “HE WOULDN”T SAY THAT”….so technically, he’s not lying….being misleading….yes.
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:23 am
There you have it bears straight from the horse’s mouth. There is no real estate bubble in Canada bears. Maybe one day that will sink in. Your dreams of owning a condo in Vancouver are just pure fantasy.
February 23rd, 2010 at 9:21 am
Remember where his boss cut his teeth … interesting article (Bloomberg) out today about how Goldman not only underwrote the largest (by far) amount of toxic structured products (CDO’s) that AIG bought but also bet aginst them by purchasing credit default swaps from AIG. ie Sell you a faulty product and getting paid when it fails. When AIG failed because of this another Alumni (Geitner) bailed them out (in full with public money) but had his staff at the New York Fed not release the documents.
Also interesting reading (New York Times) about how they helped Greece and other countries hide there debt levels using structured products.
Does anyone believe Carney … anyone who could work for an organization like this has a serious moral compass issue.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:58 am
@Clarke: No matter how cynical I get, I just cannot keep up.
hahahahaha (= LOL)
Thanks!
You’re not alone in your sentiment.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:56 am
@domus:
We (I mean the public, not the people on this board) allow officials to lie because we want them to.
The simple truth is that real wealth is created only by the production of real goods and services. Not by selling something to each other at ever-increasing prices.
J6P thinks that the house he’s sitting in is his ticket to riches, and he doesn’t want to hear otherwise. He doesn’t think the officials are lying because he’s deceiving himself.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:12 am
@Wreckonomics:
Wreckonomics: that’s right. And i still find it crazy. It is institutionalized lying, and everybody (with a little brain) knows they are lying. And yet, nobody does anything about it.
If your lawyer or doctor or accountant lied to you so blatantly would you still employ them? Why do we allow government officials to do it so clearly?
It really beats me: is it possible that the only way in a democracy is barefaced lying by public officials (otherwise there would be a panic)?
It reminds of the silly argument that we cannot increase interest rates otherwise we would damage the economy. Even though keeping rates so low is bound to make even bigger damage down the line.
We need to write to our MPs en masse, let them know we are not OK with this.
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:59 am
So has every government official connected to finance or the CMHC made their public announcment that there is no bubble now? The only one to speak clearly is FORMER BOC governor David Dodge.
This isn’t because Dodge is the only one with brains. Can you imagine a government official publically saying “we have a housing bubble in Vancouver and toronto”? It will never happen. Didn’t happen in the US and it won’t happen here.
Everyone in the government knows if they said that they would be blamed for the inevitable bust. It’s much safer to say in retrospect “we never saw this coming”.
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:42 am
“Such infrastructure projects have made China the envy of the world, allowing the country to enjoy GDP growth of 8.7 per cent last year…”
And, they need figures like that just to maintain the status quo.
February 23rd, 2010 at 7:35 am
Methinks the deputy doth protest too much.
February 23rd, 2010 at 5:30 am
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1477545/
But but but.. Chinese money, running out of land, blah blah.
February 23rd, 2010 at 5:07 am
What this reminds me of is the denials from Madonna’s publicist that her marriage to Guy Ritchie was in trouble, despite her public appearances with various hunks. The more frequent and emphatic the denials the more you knew the bustup was imminent.
As is the RE bustup in Vancouver and in other overpriced Canadian markets.
February 23rd, 2010 at 4:45 am
No matter how cynical I get, I just cannot keep up.