Canada Housing bubble in the Wall Street Journal.
I think Domus was the first to point out this article in the Wall Street Journal - it looks like the Canadian Housing Bubble is getting some attention in the US media.
But some economists who are concerned point out that home prices are rising far faster than other measures of economic health. The 2009 price increase of more than 20% came as personal income in Canada fell nearly 1% and total employment was 1.4% lower than the year earlier. In a December report, the Bank of Canada warned that household debt—largely mortgages—was 1.42 times disposable income during the second quarter of 2009, a record high.
Another possible danger: Because Canadian banks typically reset adjustable-rate mortgages every few years, those who are buying now at low rates will likely see increases soon. Toronto-Dominion Bank forecasts suggest that the rate to which many Canadian mortgages are pegged, the prime rate, could nearly double by the end of 2011. The Bank of Canada warned in its December report that if interest rates increase as expected, by mid-2012 about 9% of Canadian households could have so much debt that they’d be “financially vulnerable.”
“This is exactly what happened in the U.S., when affordability had moved way out of whack with prices,” says David Rosenberg, an economist who witnessed America’s housing bubble at Merrill Lynch in New York, and now sees similar trends up north from his post at Toronto-based wealth-management firm Gluskin Sheff.
Reading the article it quickly becomes apparent that Canada = Toronto (with a dash of Red Deer). So we finally get some mainstream media coverage and there isn’t a single mention of the Vancouver market in there. What are we, chopped liver?
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February 21st, 2010 at 10:14 pm
More fear of the bubble is better since it helps to avoid the bubble. Based on the price/rent ratio, the prices in vancouver currently with say a normal interst rate of 4% are overvalued but not terribly overvalued (I would say they are fairly valued for 3.6 to 3.7% interest rate range). However, if the low interest rate environment persists more and more people are tempted by this false sense of affordability to buy homes with even higher prices. Fortunately, the new laws coming in regarding minimum down payments and 30y max amortization will help to contain that. Also, we’ll probabely see much more fragmanted market prices from location to location and from one price range to another price range. For example, I would say a decent 2bd condo in a good locaton of downtown under 600K is a much safer bet than very high end of the market (because of price) and also than the very low end of the market where usually locations are not attractive and easily substitutable.
Bull Hubris?… Or Appropriate Owner Confidence?: “Fundamentals don’t apply to Vancouver. Real estate has detached itself from economic reality long ago. It has reached escape velocity to break away from economic gravity. It is a beautiful case study. Says:
February 16th, 2010 at 9:09 pm
[...] Eyes of the World at vancouvercondo.info 9 Feb 2010 11:58 am – “Hahaha..I love checking in here [vancouvercondo.info] and seeing the same old “arguments” being rehashed over and over and over again… Vancouver is the best place on earth and the Olympics will show that to the world. People will walk around, notice the beauty and buy here.” [...]
February 10th, 2010 at 11:20 pm
Where is the bubble? I want to buy a home so please come bubble!!!
February 10th, 2010 at 6:10 am
“According to Google Trends, the term “price bubble” is most searched for in Vancouver, followed by Singapore ”
And I split my time between these two countries.
You guys think you’ve got it bad with one bubble. I have two to contend with.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:21 pm
@Dave:
There are still plenty of affordable options in the Lower Mainland.
++++++++
If you truly believe that, then calling you a retard would be an insult handicapped people. Seriously, are you drunk, or on crack, or what. No sane person, not even a troll would state something so ridiculous. Oh wait, you’re joking. Ok I get it. Dumb me.
February 9th, 2010 at 8:24 pm
@realpaul: 56 realpaul, I think there is nothing surprising in the lobby of real estate agents trying to preserve their unfair market power in order to extract surplus from consumers. I am a bit more surprised to see that it took so long for the government of Canada to figure out that something needed to be done!
The CREA virtual monopoly and the CHMC are the 2 largest market distortions in Canada: the are so large that the market mechanism can no longer work well. I believe the CHMC is the largest distortion, but removing the forced ‘CREA tax’ would already go a long way towards a consumers’ oriented housing market.
Abolish the CHMC! Liberalize the MLS!
February 9th, 2010 at 8:02 pm
We’re #1 again!
According to Google Trends, the term “price bubble” is most searched for in Vancouver, followed by Singapore and a bunch of American cities.
Not very good evidence of anything, but kinda amusing…
http://www.google.ca/trends?q=.....amp;sort=0
February 9th, 2010 at 7:59 pm
cypress – sitting in the pouring rain peering through the fog/mist to try to see people skiing on hay bales (surrounded by mud and rock off piste).
sign me up now
February 9th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
@Partisan Spectator:
It is time to start listing if you want someone in your suite for Mar 1. I guess many landlords forgot the games were actually going to end.
@Eyes of the World:
Have you checked the weather forecast? I’m hoping I don’t get soaked on Cypress on Sunday.
February 9th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Eotw, please get sober, it’s not fun.
February 9th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
eyes of the world says:
This is perfect weather, and its warmth is being broadcast all across North America!
people are seeing the real vancouver, it is warm and rains. no snowshoes and ice fishing here.
February 9th, 2010 at 7:45 pm
ps says:
the number is 850+ and growing. What is this? Desperate landlords or wanted-to-be-but-unlucky olympics hosts?
a bit of both, downtown there are some accidental landlords out there; especially at recently completed buildings like alto, donovan, vita, etc. the values on the recently completed product is less than what they paid for it.
February 9th, 2010 at 7:38 pm
I’ve been watching units for rent in Vancouver on Craigslist for over a year. Noticed that for all that period the number of units for rent (for my search criteria) was 700 +/-30, relatively steady. Now, it started few weeks ago and continues, the number is 850+ and growing. What is this? Desperate landlords or wanted-to-be-but-unlucky olympics hosts?
February 9th, 2010 at 7:33 pm
Just flew back into town and wow, is there ever an Olympic buzz. And wow, does the city look great from the air. This city is crawling with foreign female talent, and even actual talent. Walked beside Eugene Levy for 5 blocs up burrard from the covention centre. He is staying at the Sutton.
Poor patient bears are screwed. This is perfect weather, and its warmth is being broadcast all across North America! 250k people will party it up, with hundreds of millions more watching. That is 250k RICH people…even a fraction of them buying will further erode already low inventories…
Sorry bears, but this city is in a new paradigm…it will be even more for the rich after the Games…you are all screwed
February 9th, 2010 at 7:09 pm
@stagnate:
“it’s doubtful san fransisco real estate will come close to vancouver again. ”
It may…as Vancouver chases SF downward.
February 9th, 2010 at 7:00 pm
patriotz says:
As I recall price/income in the Bay Area peaked around 10:1 and has since declined to about 5.5:1, i.e. prices are down about 45%. And that bust is not over. Why is that Dave?
elasticity of demand. it’s doubtful san fransisco real estate will come close to vancouver again.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
@Frank: This is what I’m seeing as well. I’ve been wanting to get out of my current rental for a few months now but knew that prices were going to come down dramatically after the Olympics. But, as Frank writes, prices have come down considerably already and the Olympics haven’t even started yet. Which sucker (I mean homeowner) is going to subsidize my housing costs for the next year?
“Eenie-meenie-miney-mo…”
February 9th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
More hype on the Olympics. How will the winding down of Olympic spending and hype mean that BC will continue to grow on the back of the long gone games?
http://www.theprovince.com/bus.....story.html
I think BC is in for a big dump when all the part time jobs related to the Olympics are gone. The VANOC parasites did manage to get a big bonus but how long can that last? Once the high wears off we’re in for the hangover.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
Re: the price/income ratio. I’m sure that the RE whores want to misdirect the public away from this traditional calculation. It makes the market appear unsustainable even to the math challenged FTB’s.
But the question is ‘whats next?’ Do we also exclude the current batch of unaffordable condos and move down to those 270 sq footers to benchmark ‘AFFORDABILITY’?.
Its rather obvious that they would rather fight than include the traditional model of the SFH (where the statistic originates) because it has reached the unfreakingbelievable figure of 16.6 times earnings. ( 950K divided by the average Vanc income of 57K.
Liars can’t figure and figures can’t lie eh?
February 9th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
@realpaul:
They are. But when they use the term “association” instead people don’t notice.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:11 pm
@Drachen:
I’m sure you could pull apart the numbers for all segments of the RE market in Vancouver and find that the 9.3 multiple will be fairly consistant across the board.
The numbers are bad no matter where a purchaser falls within that spectrum.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
Ignore Dave, he is pretending to be stupid and intentionally wrong to bait you. Just ignore him/her.
The Rental Market is backing up like crazy and the Olympic haven’t even started yet.
The days of $1250 one bedrooms in new buildings are back.
Soon the days of $99,000 one bedrooms will be too.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:04 pm
#10 Domus, one thing that struck me in The CREAäs response to Competition Inquiry oversight was the confrontational style of his answers, saying “we are negotiating a settlement” . Excuse me, a ’settlement’? If you are breaking the law you cease and desist, usually after being sanctioned for your criminal behaviour!!
Second, I got the distinct impression that Ripplinger is saying that by collecting public information and withholding it from the public that the CREA has a right to call the collection of public statistics ‘CREA property’? Excuse me?
These peoples arrogance has gottten way out of control. You’d think they were unionized.
February 9th, 2010 at 5:59 pm
@Dave:
“The 9.3 ratio is meaningless. The average person in the GVRD does not purchase a SFH in Vancouver.”
The 9.3 number does not represent SFH, that number would be more like a 17 or an 18. 10 seconds with a calculator is all it takes to figure that one out.
9.3 is MEDIAN HOUSING you dip.
February 9th, 2010 at 5:57 pm
@Not much of a name:
Oh I’m sure there are too, and I’m equally sure they will disappear in short order when interest rates go up or their account with the Bank of Mom and Dad is overdrawn.