Construction jobs on the rise

From the Vancouver Sun:

Although January construction numbers are up to 198,600 jobs, it is below the 202,100 jobs from a year ago, and a far cry from the 220,800 jobs during the boom.

The good news is that new construction is on the rise in the province, with the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts reaching 186,300 units in January, a 5.8-per-cent increase from December.

That’s much better than the 149,081 housing units to begin 2009, but the construction starts have progressed steadily until now, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. It’s even better than the figure that economists from financial institutions had been predicting.

The pessimistic CREA throws some cold water on this positive news by predicting that the HST and higher interest rates will push the real estate market down in 2011.

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DonLogan
DonLogan
10 years ago

I had to laugh…

I attended the Laurie Anderson performance at the Playhouse on Sunday, and she opened by saying she was surprised that she didn't know more people up here recalling that in 2000, when Bush was first elected, acquaintances were threatening to move.

When Bush was re-elected in 2004 the often heard response was, "that's it we're really going!"

Actions speak volumes.

scullboy
10 years ago

Oh Supra, how sad…..

You've mistaken your Daddy's lap with condos. Though I'm sure he's stuff a couple of loonies into that teensy little thong, 10 of 'em won't make you rich.

Have another Lychee martini sweetheart, then it's time for bed. Clearly you can't hold your drink.

Supraboy
Supraboy
10 years ago

fuck you all rentas! i'e got rich sitting oin my condos and you are all so poor. ha, eat my left overs at the all wonderful Cactus club plebs!

rp
rp
10 years ago

#41 @Anonymous: To Paul Jenkins, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada. Thank you for discrediting yourself and your institution. The fact that you came to Vancouver (of all places) to deny a housing bubble shows that you are either so stupid that you lack any basic powers of observation, analysis, and critical thought, or you believe that we are that stupid and you have a wicked sense of irony. On that second point, I see our local media did not disappoint.

However, by adding your voice to the cacophony of morons and vested interests denying such a massive and obvious problem, you put yourself squarely in the column of "contributor". So in the increasingly likely event of some kind of crisis, be aware that your culpability has been noted.

Working guy
Working guy
10 years ago

Hey Supra, can you do me a favor please and brief us on who's in town from famous and celebrities hanging around and having fun in downtown's clubs and bars where action is? Are there any real world jet-setters or it's mainly local high rollers and celebrities like yourself and high-end realtors. Who is attending all those VIP parties and after-parties during Olympics?

Laud Speaker
Laud Speaker
10 years ago

In response to CREA'S HST and INTEREST RATES concern. HST:Only apply to new housing,Developers can pass the cost of hst to buyers in bid to keep their jobs alive or they will reduce the construction of new homes. RESULTS:Resale home market will move up to the extent where buyers will be agree to pay HST and they will countinue buying new house. HST on Realtors commissions:It will put pressure on realtors to reduce their Commissions to find buyers and sellers or buyers and sellers will learn to deal directly to save HST and realtors COMMISSIONS rates.Seller can pass half or equal of full commissions to buyers. INTEREST RATES:Interest rates pressures grow through the gauge of economy recovery and Interest rates proceed up wards gradually,Specially interest rates never poise any threat without any outer reason like Inflation rates,employment rates. when all… Read more »

Vansanity
Vansanity
10 years ago

No Housing Bubble, eh? I've been saving this gem for a while. I sent my MP an email some time ago regarding CMHC. I heard back from several ministers, most of them simply giving me a canned response. One office (will remain nameless) however sent me an email had the following tidbit: "As you note, there are many aspects that still need to be addressed to prevent serious fallout from a potential housing bubble and ______ has forwarded your input to our Finance Critic for their information. _____ has also flagged these concerns with the Parliamentary Budget Officer and requested that his office take a closer look at these regulations." There are many aspects that still need to be addressed to prevent serious fallout from a potential housing bubble. The fact they even used such language meant more to me… Read more »

Supraboy
Supraboy
10 years ago

@BeggarCity: Your name suits your perfectly, continue to beg. Market is going up, face reality boys and girls.

Supraboy
Supraboy
10 years ago

@permantlybullish:

Nicely said. These bears have been around crying since a few years ago. They've been sitting on the sidelines bickering and have watched their neighbors get rich.

domus
domus
10 years ago

Was googling my way through the coverage of the delirious statement by Paul Jenkins today (apparently Canada has no hiusing bubble — by the way, if he is wrong could he be held accountable for misleading statement of facts?) and I found a recent entry on Garth Turner greater fool blog: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/02/22/planning/ Now, I always thought the guy was a bit of a weirdo, but does that change the fact that he completely spot on with his analysis? Here is something i could not have written more clearly: "…Greenspan allowed both to form due to lax regulatory oversight and, most significantly, too-cheap rates. In fact, the US real estate bubble could end up destroying the States for a generation or two, throwing it into unrepayable public debt after hollowing out the net worth of the middle class. By refusing to… Read more »

RUNCMHC
RUNCMHC
10 years ago

@grandmaster G:

I am apart of that industry too and like you said many moved out east, to the states, overseas and up north. I still know some people with 10 years of experience still looking for work in town. It's still pretty rough out there … and to think most of these people are your above average income bracket earners.

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

'No Canadian housing bubble: Bank of Canada deputy governor' The Canadian housing market is strong, but it is not experiencing a bubble, Paul Jenkins, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, said Monday. The federal government said last week it will bring in new mortgage rules to cool the housing sector and prevent home buyers, tempted by record low interest rates, from overextending themselves. At the same time, it said there was no housing bubble, a point echoed on Monday by Jenkins, who was speaking at a panel discussion at the Government of Canada and Financial Times Global Business Leaders Day in Vancouver, where the housing market is especially hot. "At the moment, we are certainly seeing a certain amount of the recovery in the Canadian economy coming from the housing sector" he said. "I would certainly not say… Read more »

bestplaceonmeth
bestplaceonmeth
10 years ago

@rubberduckie:

They've been increasing for at least a year but it's accelerating now.

Crap economy, Games ending with unrealized dreams of making a killing, real estate market turning.

Expect to see heavy listings for rentals and sales in the coming months.

rubberduckie
rubberduckie
10 years ago

Wow, does it look to you folks like rental listings are up?

I normally have a look daily on Craigslist under my search parameters, just to see if there might be something better… and wow did I have to scroll today!

bestplaceonmeth
bestplaceonmeth
10 years ago

This is for you, fecalpaul!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxrq6AX45bo

BeggarCity
BeggarCity
10 years ago

permantlybullish Says:

February 22nd, 2010 at 2:25 pm

When you bears grow old and are living on catfood because the rent keeps going up I’ll think of you from my chaise lounge on my twice yearly carribean cruise. I really will.

———————————–

Hey permabullshit!

Psssssst…. I have a podium to sell. Podiums always go up, you know that, don't you?

realpaul
realpaul
10 years ago

#22 BPOM , I predict an increase in dope revenues.An increase in grow ops should affect real estate prices accordingly. New development in the Punjab and Vietnam is also dependant on BC Bud, so come on Vanshithouse, smoke smoke smoke that dope. Do your part for sustainable growth in the third world. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100222/ap_on_re_us/u… And yes, the official death of the over hyped 'own the podium' bullshit campaign was forecast by myself long before the games began. A smart guy like yourself knows that the entire advertising campaign promoting the Olympics was written on used toilet paper that flowed out of one of the 26 sewage outlets that flows daily into False Creek at the gateway to classy Yaletown and the front steps of the desirable Olympic Village . Everyone wants to live with raw sewage pouring out like waterfalls into… Read more »

patriotz
10 years ago

@SD92129:

Once it starts to become painful for the banks, thats when the banks might start to rethink their lending practices.

The banks will rethink their lending practices when CMHC tells them to. As long as someone else is holding the bag, there is no reason for them to do otherwise.

patriotz
10 years ago

@SD92129:

I dont believe foreclosure rates in 2008 were anything here like they were/are down there.

Foreclosures did not exceed historical norms in the US until 2007, a year after the bust started. Foreclosures are a lagging indicator of a bust.

The Vancouver mini-bust of 2008 didn't last a year.

SD92129
SD92129
10 years ago

Patriotz,

I dont believe foreclosure rates in 2008 were anything here like they were/are down there. Also, sales volume was relatively low. Once it starts to become painful for the banks, thats when the banks might start to rethink their lending practices.

patriotz
10 years ago

@SD92129:

I have a feeling that the banks, appraisser and everyone else will be doing their jobs slightly differently when the RE market is pointed in a different direction.

Well that's a given. But they've already had practice with the 2008 mini-bust. Until the low interest rates turned things around we were showing a faster drop than any US market.

SD92129
SD92129
10 years ago

I am not saying that appraisal on a foreclosure is different from a voluntary sale, but rather, the presence of foreclosures is a sign that the market is headed down quickly and this tends to make appraisers do their homework more carefully. In a rising market, an appraiser can overvalue a home, but no big deal, the market is heading up, value with eventually made up and the bank doesnt care. In a falling market appraisers have to be much more careful to not overestimate the value. In the US anyways, once the ball started rolling, comparables would be looked at, but they would have to be very recent, and even then appraisers are more careful to factor in an "allowance" in a dropping market. This appraised value impacts the loan to value ratio which can lead to downward pressure… Read more »

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[…] February 2010 · Leave a Comment Vansanity at vancouvercondo.info 22 Feb 2010 at 10:56 am – “I have a couple friends that are moving away this week. Both were in construction […]

catfood_gourmet
catfood_gourmet
10 years ago

I've always found catfood to be pretty good value compared to spam and max and cheese since cats are picky about taste while most welfare moms and hawaiian sumo wrestlers are not. You do pay a price premium for catfood but just like condo ownership you get what you pay for.

patriotz
10 years ago

@SD92129:

I don't see why the appraisal for a mortgage on the sale of a foreclosure would be a different issue than on a discretionary sale. You would be looking at the same comparables.