Friday Free-for-all!

Thus wraps up the first week of February 2010, which means it’s time to do our regular end of the week economic news round up and open topic discussion post.  Here are a few stories to kick off the weekend thread:

-Global stock markets slide
-Vancouver prices hit January peak
-Unveiling the Fairmont Pacific Rim
-Fixed or variable rate mortgage?
-VREAA: Froogle Scott 3
-Whistler debt woes mount
-Our friend Bob in Seattle
-Canadian building permits rise
-They’re laughing with you, not at you
-Boon or bust for the Downtown East Side

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have and excellent weekend!

102 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”

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    RE: Fairmont Pacific

    Great timing. All we need in this day and age are symbols of rampant excess and luxury.

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    re: "Global stock markets slide"

    After yesterday's drubbing, I see they are busy "adjusting" the unemployment numbers DOWNward.

    Silly! Yesterday they were all a bunch of Gloomy Gus's but today…ta da! Things are soooooo much better after all!

    I wonder how many other "mistakes" can be fixed in 24 hours?

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    "Fixed or variable rate mortgage?"

    Wow, something from the "experts" that actually makes sense.

    The ruling principal is that you have to pay to offload risk onto someone else. In lending, the longer the term, the more risk the lender is taking. The shorter the term, the more risk the borrower is taking.

    So on average, the shorter the term of the loan, the less the borrower will pay over the amortization. What the borrower gets for the lower cost is more risk of payment increase.

    Another way of putting it is that the markets are more likely to be wrong in the short term than in the long term. That is, if there's an unexpected rate increase you may beat the market by getting a 5 year term over floating, but at the end of that 5 years the market is going to want a higher rate for another 5 years. So the guy who has had floating all along is more likely to come out ahead at the 10 year mark.

    A good rule of thumb is that if you can afford the payments for 5 year term, you can afford the risk of taking a floating rate and will come out ahead in the long run. Of course the people taking out floating rate today aren't following this rule at all – it's the only way they can buy, period.

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    The Froogle Scott Chronicles: Mortgaging Our Souls In Paradise –

    Part 3: Priced Out Forever? Vancouver Renters and Basement Suites

    see:
    http://wp.me/pcq1o-sv

    In the latter half of the 1980s I was a student at the University of British Columbia, augmenting my student loans by working part time as a bartender in one of the student bars. . . . One evening Mike, one of the food prep guys, told me that he and his mother had just bought a house on the East Side, traditionally the working class area of Vancouver. . . . I remember the price he and his mother paid: $90,000. -Froogle Scott

    In other times, and other places, renting was and is the norm. But during the kind of runaway real estate boom that Vancouver has experienced, just about everybody who can buy, eventually does. The cheap loans and social forces are irresistible. Ownership rates rise to record highs. The renter pool becomes more highly concentrated with vagabonds and the indigent. Renters become an underclass, targets of derision and subjects of pity. As with all things human and economic, however, once this process has moved as far as it can in one direction, the only way forward is for it to come back. There may well come a time when the renters rise up out of their basement suites; a time when renting comes to be seen as prudent, as sensible, as responsible, as trendy, as wise. -vreaa

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    Unemployment is down across Canada and BC. Most Provinces were down except for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadian+gai

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    @Dave:

    That's nice. Unemployment was down in the US in 2006 too:

    http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServl

    Connect the dots.

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    Apparently there's a huge backload at MLS. Any RE people care to investigate and comment? My RE sources who don't load their own listings say they've been waiting for a week and that the excuse being given is that there are 300+ to go in.

    Cashing in on Olympic buyers ?!? or something more ominous?

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    Anonymous Says:
    8

    @Dave: part time jobs buddy, don't get to exited!

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    "Global stock markets tumble: what's going on?"

    They should put this on the end of every headline.

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    Gordon C. Says:
    10

    In the early 80's I was working in Vancouver. A friend offered me his two-bedroom rancher in Marpole for $135,000. At that time I was making $36,000 a year and interest rates were around 12 percent. I didn't buy, then house prices started going up and I was left behind. I gave up on ever owning a home and instead went back to UBC and later travelled through North America. If I had to do it all over again. I would do the same thing, except study a little harder and leave Canada for the states. I certainly would not want to be strapped to house payments in my 20's for 25 years. My payments would just be ending now.

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    Not much of a name Says:
    11

    @Gordon C.:

    Funny thing is, that house is probably worth over a million now and incomes are at about $60-70k.

    Incomes have not kept pace with RE prices.

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    Same Same Says:
    12

    7 Cik

    Yawn….

    Yes, yes, the inevitable seasonal "flood" where listings are just catching up to their norm of 9-12k for the REBGV. The same amount during all of the boom years.

    Nothing to see here – move along, or stay in your basement suite.

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    There is a scrolling add appearing in this blog when viewing on a iPhone, but the add does not say from admob or google. Is it from a wordpress plugin?

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    Fact1.Global stock markets slide

    Fact2.Vancouver prices hit January peak

    Too bad for R.E.Bears who did not buy but good for Stock Bears and Van R.E. Bulls.

    Spin:Economy pace is hard to reverse while oil prices crashed and employment rates went up.

    Stock market is leading indicator to carry the economy through but nobody can ever figure out about where to start,What could be the bottom or end of stock price.All you need to see is Green light even if the piller is standing on multiple casualities.So the stocks green lights will be ON starting Monday Feb 8,2010.

    Results:Vancouver real estate is going to countinue it's trends upwards,Economy pace will never reverse to nail down Van R.E.

    Interest rates will never accelrate on high speed,Unemployment rates will be countinue to sliding downwards,Oil prices got huge skyline to touch.

    Look out for 32% extreme speed appreciation in Vancouver Real Estate in 2010.

    And

    Thanks.

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    I'm off to New York City for the weekend.

    You see, by renting my West Side house instead of buy it, I'm saving $3500 – $4000 every month (depending on how much repairs and maintenance the land lord has to do in particular month). I take that money and live like the rich man I am. I go to New York every month for a dose of art, culture and shopping. (Since I can't live in a world class city, I visit one often).

    Then I take $1000 or so every month to top up and annually max out my RRSP investments.

    The only problem is, all my friends are owners. They have no money to do anything!

    Bears don't live in basement suites. They live in houses and they live it up because the bears have the cashflow.

    The funny thing is, that Bulls think they are smart paying 70% of their income to the Bank. Have a nice life slaves!

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    Anyone looking at the US Jobs data and wondering why the CDN jobs data is exactly the opposite should slap themselves or drink more coffee, cause you're not following along. The jobs data lies in the US could no longer be sustained in the face of growing eveidence to the contrary. The CDN government is using the same old tricks to skew the data for political points. Connect the dots indeed, the Cons are back in a hole in the national polls. The media in Canada is actually just a conduit for the advertisers. Hasn't EVERYBODY figured that out yet? Watch for revisions on the jobs data in Canada. Didn't anyone hear Carneys comments that Canada was still in recession and it would be a long time before any improvements became obvious? Hes distancing himself from the Cons statements so as not to look like a fool. I'm not hoping for the worst, but as a grown up with money to lose I am not falling for the BS I'm hearing from the CDN government. No matter what the press reports, the RE market in canada is a powder keg ready to explode. What will be the final determinant? It's impossible to say. The fact remains is that artificial markets never sustain themselves. This IS a bubble, pure and simple, if you can't recognize that because one year has gone by and you think thats time enough for a macro cycle to have passed, then too bad for you. Only a child can't see whats going on.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    17

    @Gordon C.:

    I certainly would not want to be strapped to house payments in my 20’s for 25 years. My payments (for a house bought in the 80's) would just be ending now.

    Don't you understand that if you have bought in the mid-80's your house payments would have dropped below rent within a few years and would be substantially below rent now, as the mortgage approaches its payout date. You would have gotten a free house and more.

    Whether a house, like any other asset, is a good investment depends on how much you pay for it, and the price was right in the mid-80's. Fundamentals matter.

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    @VRENGD: I know you can't see my Car with loud music infornt of Coal Harbour and yeah Flag is up like Van. R. E.

    If anybody like to feel proud then go for walk around Robson and Pacific Blvd,and BC Place.

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    @patriotz: I agree with your assessment of Gordon C's post on one level – but really, renting in your 20s, even if you could buy, makes sense to me. You're more free to go to school or travel and the like. And maybe less likely to trash it with ill advised house parties.

    He might have gotten it paid off by now to sell and be quite well off, but he may have also then missed the experiences of youth. I feel the same way about my kids, actually. A different kind of investment, of course! If I'd had 'em earlier, I'd be almost done by now, but I would have missed a lot of living.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    20

    @Arwen:

    I agree with your assessment of Gordon C’s post on one level – but really, renting in your 20s, even if you could buy, makes sense to me.

    What makes sense to me is what makes money, and buying a house 25 years ago would have made you a lot. And let me stress that's even if you still own it – the house would have been putting income in your pocket year over year.

    Waiting until, say, 1990 would have changed the parameters substantially.

    But to each his own.

    http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/ResidentialRea

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    Same Same,

    How many economic cycles have you been through?How many houses you owned? I'm on my 5th.

    I live in Shaughnessy, I have winter and summer properties. My kids go to private school.

    I'm a member of a westside golf club and tennis club.

    I would love to sell my house here but I would never get all the money and headaches I've put in. Plus my wife laughs at me when I bring it up.

    Shake your head son, the Van RE meltdown is coming.

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    Westside Wannabe Says:
    22

    21

    Lol – we are all millionaires or Rhode Scholar economists on this site and all of us have "seen the RE meltdow before" in past economic cycles…

    "I would love to sell my house here but I would never get all the money and headaches I’ve put in."

    What? Did you just buy your house? Did you do major renovations worth more than the value of your house?

    If you bought anytime since 2002, with the exception of Spring 2008, you are up and most likely you would be able to recoup any investment in house upgrades if you sold today. I trust that if you are on your 5th house, you bought before then…

    Makes me think that while you may be on your 5th house you have learned nothing along the way…

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    squidly77 Says:
    23

    I see now why people are so anti-VANOC

    ———–

    Opinion is growing that the $10-million Canada pavilion in downtown Vancouver is an "embarrassment" to the country — and a "rinky-dink" effort by the 2010 host country.

    "It looks like a temporary tent," said North Vancouver resident Alastair Campbell, in town to take a peek on Wednesday.

    "I'm very disappointed. It's not very impressive. It seems the federal government forgot they had to have a pavilion," he said.

    "It was done at the last minute. To showcase this to the world is embarrassing. They've let go a major opportunity. It's being upstaged by other countries and provinces. This is really rinky-dink."
    http://www.calgaryherald.com/sports/2010wintergam

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    Starving Artist Says:
    24

    You know, I was in the interior last week and I had the thought that I wonder how much of Vancouver speculation is being driven by professionals that live in BC's smaller towns and cities, where there aren't that many investment opportunities. Any anecdotal evidence to support this?

    Also, anyone got a historical graph of consumer spending in BC? The BC Stats site only goes back about a year (at least the free stuff I was looking at). I'm curious if it paced RE valuation at all. I'm sure it went up a fair bit even from HELOCs etc. I just read Shiller's book and he says a classic bubble feature is that people don't cash in and actually enjoy the "paper wealth" they think they have. It would also be a pretty good predictor on how cash-strapped our province could be when prices correct.

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    Starving Artist Says:
    25

    Also re: market slide… seems to me it's priced about right now, with potential to undershoot.

    http://www.multpl.com/

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    Malicious? Says:
    26

    @Wilma

    Kaspersky AV gives a "malicious" warning when I land here on

    this site. Can anyone shed some light on this?

    malicious http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_… (analysis according to the base of suspicious web addresses)

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    Hey all you cash-rich renters, opening ceremony tickets available at cost. Get 'em while they last.

    http://www.vancouver2010.com

    Come on realpaul, we know you want to go!

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    Anonymous Says:
    28

    opening ceremonies?

    YAWN.

    I'll be on the beach in Fiji, thank you very much.

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    ReadyToPop Says:
    29

    Benjamin Koellmann paid $215,000 for his apartment in Miami Beach in 2006, but now units are selling in foreclosure for $90,000. "There is no financial sense in staying," he said

    No help in sight, more homeowners walk away

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    Anonymous Says:
    30

    In the Shadow of the Olympics – form the New York Time

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/sports/olympics

    “We are who we are,” Sullivan said. “We’re not busing anybody out. We’re proud of what people will see, the work that’s being done. We’re not hiding anything.”

    Hrmmm I guess he's referring to not busing out the current people. I wonder where all the people they bused out are now?

    I heard the Langley area, so they have no access to transit.

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    Anonymous Says:
    31

    hahaha

    Rejected 2010 Mascots

    http://drawn.ca/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010

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    bestplaceonmeth Says:
    32

    Letterman's idea for ticket holders to bring their own snow to Cypress was a good one, except that it will melt during the 3 hour security wait to get to the event.

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    pricedoutfornow Says:
    33

    @Starving Artist:

    "…how much of Vancouver speculation is being driven by professionals that live in BC’s smaller towns and cities, where there aren’t that many investment opportunities"

    I'm not sure I understand what you're getting at, but being from the interior, trust me, most people think that people in Vancouver are completely nuts for spending $900k on some East Van shack. Besides, I'm not sure there is a lack of investment opportunities in smaller cities (Okanagan, for example?) A few years ago (pre-bubble) I had the chance to buy a decent, solid house in Trail for $60k. Yes, $60k. The rent was about $700/month. Property taxes, not too much. If that's not an investment opportunity, I'm not sure what is (and yes I still wonder if I shouldn't have bought that house, houses there are now $120k plus)

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    The Trail house returned 14% per year before maintenance and property taxes, so yes, it probably was a good investment opportunity. However, you actually have to manage the thing. Maybe you didn't want to be bothered?

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    bestplaceonmeth Says:
    35

    @Anonymous:

    #31

    Where is "Gordy", the drunken BC premier erratically driving down a Maui highway?

    http://www.mugshots.com/Hall%20of%20Shame/Gordon+

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    DaRennieGuarentee Says:
    36

    Hi Folks,

    Your good friend Boog Rennie here. Ha, just kidding. #15, you are spot on. taking 3 big vacations with the family this year, just brought a new car and the mrs some fancy ear rings. All my house owning friends (probably 99% of them) comment, "oh must be nice being a renter", I simply say yeah it is great, we save the difference between our rent and the total cost of owning, juice up our RRSP and spend the rest and actually buy shit with cash not credit. WOW, what a difficult concept to crasp! Some still don't get it. Mark my words, this time next year, Vancouver real estate will be in total collapse. Wishing you and your family a happy Olympic experience in this crap ass town, I will be in the Carribean enjoying the sun and cheap rum.

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    Rent Van?? Says:
    37

    I'm so glad I didn't buy that 3000 SF Point Grey Rancher in 1981 for an absurd asking price of $229K @ 13% per yr.

    I'm so glad I didn't buy that 1/2 acre British Property view home with a pool in 1991 for $360K when % rates were 19%!

    I'm so glad I did not buy that tacky East Van bungalow in 1995 for $200K (with a basement suite) when % rates were 9%.

    I was so lucky to walk away from that North Van bungalow in 1999 with a basement suite for $220K because % rates were 7%.

    It only gets better BEARS!

    Want to make MONEY?

    Buy RE and HOLD!!! OR keep paying your Foreign SMARTER owners mortgage!

    Oh Yeah, had to decide between cycling, downhill skiing, boating, hiking, scuba, kyaking an on an on! yeah it sucks here Get a life Arit, Logic, realpaul etc!

    Wake up people, Look around, Use your own intuition!

    Stop listening to these Losers!

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    37, are you a complete retard?

    seems so.

    what's the price now? would you buy _now_? if so, then you are a retard, end of story.

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    Rent Van?? Says:
    39

    Guilty! I am a retard!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Rent Van?? Says:
    40

    Logic!

    The price now means nothing!

    The cost of ownership is everything!

    D0 YOU OWN YOUR HOME?

    I"m talking about TIME!

    Call me a retard!

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    Rent Van?? Says:
    41

    WAKE UP BEARS!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    #40: "The price now means nothing! Call me a retard!"

    OK, you're a retard.

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    DaRennieGuarentee Says:
    43

    go load up on van real estate Eent Van or be priced out forever, great metrics right now, plus i guarentee you it will go up.

    you clearly have no clue about this blog, values are absurd now, perhaps not so much in 81, 95 and 99. timing is everything, and today is not a good time to buy, but hey you are trump jr so who am i to call you a fuckin moron

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    44

    @Starving Artist:

    You know, I was in the interior last week and I had the thought that I wonder how much of Vancouver speculation is being driven by professionals that live in BC’s smaller towns and cities, where there aren’t that many investment opportunities.

    In fact it's the other way around, people from the coast (and Alberta) are driving up prices in semi-ghost towns like Grand Forks, Kaslo, Midway and Greenwood (population 600, Canada's smallest incorporated city) where there are few full time jobs, never mind good ones. People in the Interior don't have the incomes to service the negative cash flow to "invest" in RE in their own towns, never mind Vancouver, where they would face higher prices and management expenses.

    340K gets you this house in Greenwood – price reduced from 390K – better buy now! On the market for a year but won't last long!

    You can buy a nicer house in Ottawa for that price.

    Ironically the one town in the West Kootenays which has a lot of well-paying jobs is the cheapest – Trail. That's because the out-of-town speculators aren't interested.

    BTW, there are other investment opportunities than RE. Like the stock market, for example, and last I heard that's just as accessible from the Interior as anywhere else.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    45

    Speaking of Ottawa, here's what 400K gets you in a neighbourhood that is the counterpart to Dunbar/McKenzie Heights.

    The 417 is not close enough to the property to be noticeable.

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper

    And no I'm not claiming Ottawa is good value – that house should only go for about 300K. Ottawa is about as overpriced these days as Seattle IMHO. But the difference is that Ottawa has gone up over the past couple of years (while Seattle has gone down) due to CMHC's bubble blowing.

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    FROM GLOBE AND MAIL: MUST READ ARTICLE

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business

    In what world do the banks have to tell the government to rein in lending and squeeze profits? I'm actually (somewhat) proud of our banks.

    Flaherty can't blame anyone else now.

    As soon as downpayment minimums go to 10% you can expect a 20% drop in RE prices here.

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    from article 46:

    "Mortgage advertising outside a Bank of Nova Scotia. Deborah Baic/THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    Top bankers pushing government to clamp down on market to avoid any chance of U.S.-style collapse"

    ———————————–

    Horse. Bolted. Door. Close?

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    @nero: Good question…..maybe in a world in which even the banks are willing to forego risk-free profits to avoid being reprimanded (and their bonuses being restricted) later on.

    Let the blame game begin!

    Personally I blame the government which changed the rules of the game through the CHMC. Banks are private companies which naturally want to make money and maximize profits (like most private companies).

    This is the government's fault: abolish the CHMC!

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    china factor Says:
    49

    Quotes from Vancouver Sun

    "Mainland Chinese buyers led luxury-home market recovery" "Canada seen as a safe storehouse for personal wealth"

    Yeah, you bet it is a safe haven for their money and on top of that they get to use our tax dollars for free medical care for their at least 3 generation extended families. Plus free education for their kids all for a bit of property tax. You won't get any income tax out of these people.

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    49, let me translate for you:

    Foreign idiots throw away thier money.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    51

    @domus:

    The banks are essentially facing a prisoner's dilemma problem. They know that if the bubble continues, and collapses, they all will be worse off. But there is no incentive for any individual bank to restrict lending, because its competitors would just take the business, and thus that bank would end taking the biggest hit.

    Also an agreement among the banks to restrict lending, even if it could be arrived at, could be viewed legally as a conspiracy in restraint of trade.

    So the banks must appeal to a higher level to restrict lending to all of them equally.

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    !(EconomicsDegree) Says:
    52

    "free medical care … free education"

    Yeah and all it costs them is paying hundreds of thousands of dollars above market price for a property. That's hardly free. In fact it's a downright bad financial decision, seeing how they can rent.

    logic 50 is almost right. Idiots throw away their money. That they are "foreign" is coincidence.

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    Hold the burger: Olympic chef changes menu after McDonald’s objects

    http://www.theprovince.com/life/Hold+burger+Olymp

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    Anonymous Says:
    54

    52

    How is it not "nearly" free? The hundreds of thousands they pay above market doesn't all go to government revenue, only property transfer tax and some indirect income tax from the agents.

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    Anonymous Says:
    55

    @!(EconomicsDegree): Aren't they buying to feed you and your elder brothers? and also to keep your jobs up.

    throw your degree away because you don't know economy and real estate.

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    @patriotz: Spot on! That's exactly what i thought this morning. The banks are appealing to the referee (the government) to restrict their behavior: it is the optimal thing to do in the long-run, but they can't be expected to do it individually because of competitive pressures. Really interesting set-up, don't you think?

    The question is: will the government restrict the CHMC? That's what it boils down to. Is the referee going to make this call?

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    realpaul Says:
    57

    heres a good read for the weekend. since when is saving bad?

    http://dollarcollapse.com/articles/lies-we%e2%80%

    BTW did anyone catch the new spin that the DTES is undergoing a "renaissance"? Tell that to the poor, the homeless and the menatlly ill that are being given the bums rush. Bwahahahahahahahaha

    The inferance of 'renaissance' conjures up a very differant image from the reality don't it? It is the local government who is saying that alll the imternational reporters have it wrong. Oh really?

    Hey, when the 6:00 news consists of Ron Benzce doing a walk through piece on a new condo project you pretty know that the media is dead and the truth is laying beside it.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    58

    @domus:

    The question is: will the government restrict the CHMC? That’s what it boils down to. Is the referee going to make this call?

    The referee can either make the call now, and be pelted with tomatoes from the stands, or not make it and have to deal with being pelted with rocks later.

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    There is add displaying when viewing this site on my cell and it doesn't say admob or google where is it coming from?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    !(EconomicsDegree) Says:
    60

    Anon54 from the buyer's perspective it doesn't matter where the money "goes". They payed an extra few hundred K and in return they get "free" health care and education. That's bad business.

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    wilma,

    one suggests yout mobile service provider

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz 58. But is it really tomatoes now vs. rocks later? Pulling the plug now is high-risk politics as the gov't will be hated for two (contradictory) reasons: (1) by prospective buyers for making housing "less affordable", and (2) by owners for causing price declines. But if they sit back and let the bubble inflate to the inevitable bursting point, the general public will not direct blame at them in the same way.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    63

    @scoop:

    But if they sit back and let the bubble inflate to the inevitable bursting point, the general public will not direct blame at them in the same way.

    After prices have fallen by 30% or so and unemployment has doubled (so they can't be blamed for touching off the bust), the Opposition will likely try to conduct an inquiry. Remember they control the parliamentary committees and can subpoena witnesses. They will be assisted in this by the press, which is already on the Cons' case.

    In more general terms, the public will blame the Cons anyway because they were the government in power. It almost always works that way.

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    @usnews:

    The media in Canada is actually just a conduit for the advertisers.

    And yet they are so SHOCKED that people aren't watching their stations.

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    Anonymous Says:
    65

    @Wilma: It's probably a google ad, like the other ads on this site. There's less space on a celphone screen, so google doesn't label their ads the same.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    !(EconomicsDegree) Says:
    66

    Scoop, at any one time there are a mix of homeowners and renters. Of the renters, only a fraction will be in a position to, and want to, buy. Based on those umbers there will always be more voters who either have interest in seeing flat to rising prices or won't have any interest at all.

    It doesn't seem too unreasonable that politicians and the government will try for monotonic increasing prices. It's not surprising policies are trying like anything to avoid falling prices. Whether or not they will be successful is debatable.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    67

    @!(EconomicsDegree):

    Whether or not they will be successful is debatable.

    It's not debatable at all. It's impossible. Both in theory and in practice.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    realpaul Says:
    68

    Aussie holds rates steady after enormous pressure from world banks who fear the pursuit of the same liquidity prospects in theier own economies. In other words the Aussies are making them all look like like fools.

    The Aussies are not happy pointing out a 13% inflation in the housing sector. Only 13%? What about my 21% increase here in Vanshithole? If any one thinks that we are not following Aussie because 'we're special' its because we are fucking nuts holding rates at zero.

    Marc Carney distanced himsef from the Gov policy a few days ago saying 'that the jobs lost in manufacturing are NOT coming back' and 'if anything there will be an uneven sluggish reocvery without job growth'. So, all the BS the gov is shelling out about low intrest rate to get the economy started again is just total BS.

    According to the BOC this is it! This is as good as it gets and Ontario is not going to regain millions of manufacturing jobs. The economy in the US is not going to bolster the conservatives chances for a sudden rebound.

    So, JIM F stop piling on the debt, its time to get real.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a91c19a-0fb5-11df-b10f

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    It's seems this blog automatically turns into a mObile version. How does it do that?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    blueskies Says:
    70

    The question is: will the government restrict the CHMC?

    ..figuratively chopping their balls off in public

    interesting turn of events

    behold the five naked dancing elephants in the room!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Wake up to the fact that Vancouver is becoming a big international city. You will no longer be able to own a house like Mommy and Daddy did. Rich people will own houses and this has nothing to do with the average Vancouver income level. The rest of us may be able to live in Condos or otherwise rent. Prices will go down undoubtedly but not enough that the average or above average earner will be able to afford a single family home in Vancouver. Maybe there is Hope in Hope, BC.

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    !(EconomicsDegree) Says:
    72

    @patriotz: "It’s not debatable at all. It’s impossible."

    I disagree on point 1! :mrgreen: Please explain why it is impossible to have flat nominal prices on a national basis going forward.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    MattX says…

    Wake up to the fact that Vancouver is becoming a big international city. You will no longer be able to own a house like Mommy and Daddy did.

    I guess your Mommy and Daddy were trying to protect you from reality by hiding all maps and reference material.

    Vancouver is not, and will never be, "a big international city". Perhaps you're getting delirious with the current Olympic hoopla. It will pass very soon.

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    ReadyToPop Says:
    74

    The heads of the country's six largest banks have privately told policy makers that they fear the wide-ranging economic fallout of a U.S. style binge-and-collapse in housing.

    Big Six banks urge Ottawa to tighten mortgage rules

    …sometimes, theres just nothing more one can say :) …RTP

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    75

    @!(EconomicsDegree):Healthcare will cost them only $500 for life in normal circumastances and $5000 for critical condition.Average home price in Vancouver cost around 573,241.Economics Degree,It's not just the economy and real estate that you don't know but also you are so dumb to calculate social life.

    Get the fuck out of here.

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    !(EconomicsDegree) Says:
    76

    Anon watch your language. Why you go out of you way to sound like an ass is beyond me

    Dude 1 spends 200k more on a house. He gets healthcare for life

    Dude 2 rents and gets the same healthcare for life and 200k extra to bump the line for an MRI. Who's better off.

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    Anonymous Says:
    77

    @!(EconomicsDegree): Onemore try,Asian people pay $500 for life in normal circumastances and $5000 in critical condition back there.

    Luxury home will cost them millions in Vancouver atleast 573,241 is bottom line.Monthly healthcare bill over here is $120 per month for family even if you don't get sick compare to nothing in their own country.

    So based on your dumbhead theory an asian family will buy a home that will cost them $573,241 to 10 million dollars to get free health care to call but actually cost you in advance without getting sick.

    Do you understand your own joke?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Believe2010 Says:
    78

    Believe 2010 olympics

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSqHqwxSmI0&fe

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    realpaul Says:
    79

    I love how these suckers fall for the spin that Vanshithole is 'becoming a big international city'. This is straight from the kool aid jug down at propaganda central for consumption by the local idiots who don't get out much mentally or physically. This is why they say that living spaces have to go down to 270 sq ft. Bwahahhahahahaaha

    Guys any city that you can walk across the downtown core in twenty fucking minutes is not 'a big city with big city problems' this is spin from developers who want you to accept the idea that you have to live in a shoebox. It is spin from the shitty council to convince you that 40% more condod can be built on the same site so that they can boost revenues while screwing you because your too stupid to understand the story.

    The hype that 'real estate can never go down in Vancoupuke is self delusion. I suggest people that actually believe anything that they hear of LIARTV get thier heads examined.

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    anonymous, re health care costs

    you really are stupid aren't you?

    you are supporting "economics" argument – do you realise that?

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    bestplaceonmeth Says:
    81

    @Believe2010:

    Whoooo!! Whoooo!! Whoooo!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    bestplaceonmeth Says:
    82

    ONE MORE TIME!

    WHOOOOOO!!!!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    bestplaceonmeth Says:
    83

    OLYMPICS!!!

    WHOOOOOO!!!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    84

    Slow down there methy don't want to peak too soon.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    and IP ban please k thx

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    86

    @!(EconomicsDegree):

    Please explain why it is impossible to have flat nominal prices on a national basis going forward

    Because nobody is going to pay carrying costs of twice rental value (even at the present rock bottom interest rates, which must eventually increase), if there is no prospect of capital gains.

    How obvious can you get.

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    !(EconomicsDegree) Says:
    87

    @Anonymous: "Do you understand your own joke?"

    The argument was that Chinese move here and BUY property for the "free" and QUALITY health care and education. I'm saying if that is the sole reason they BUY here, they're idiots. There are lots of other idiotic reasons for buying inflated real estate prices besides access to health care and education.

    You are getting negative scores, dude.

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    Hello Dear VancouverCondoInfoites,

    It is with deep sorrow that I need to inform you of the upcoming cancelling of the annual Pamplona Bull Run.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_of_the_Bulls

    It has been reported that this year the run has been cancelled due to the sudden migration of the bulls from their native Spain to an obscure condo blog in Vancouver.

    The reason for the migration of the bulls is still unknown, but our sources tell us that sudden panic has spread among the bulls, causing them to drop everything and move.

    Apparently, running around streets horning people in the back is no longer their main concern as they suddenly realize they might be slaves to the bank for the coming 35 years.

    In a last attempt to reverse their fate, they have all congregated in the blog-bear-cave trying to see how many actual bears are there, hoping that the bears will be able to carry the burden for them in the coming years.

    The bulls are secretly hoping to raid the bears stashes of food as they know said bears have been accumulating it since 2003.

    Our experts mammal biologists mention that the bulls do actually have a good chance in succeeding in such a scheme due to past observations by biologists south of the border, where the bears where raided and their accumulated stash was mostly given to the bull leaders in Wall street.

    Best regards

    arit

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Arit this is a good point and most certainly willr eflect on the upcoming sales price.

    What is truly frightening, and I urge you all to call some property managers and/or landlords from the paper, craiglist etc.

    The rents are tanking hard and fast, even downtown, none of the sparsely furnished and overpriced olympic rentals are moving and in two weeks the already anemic demand for furnished rentals will drop 75%

    So now there are double the rental units available with lots and lots of new ones coming and an inverted demand curve.

    If you can rent a new one bedroom downtown for $1200 versus paying $1850+Strata Fees, taxes etc. now then what will happen to these fooles, er, investors when interest rates go back up to 5,6, 7, 8 % and the rent remains stagnat for a decade?

    If you want a preview take a look at what happened in Las Vegas..

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Moderator,

    is there any chance you can remove the non pertinent trolling on this thread?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    realpaul Says:
    91

    Oh Oh, a new poll suggests that 90% of BCers think that the Provincial GOVs are lieing about the cost of the Olympics. No Duh !!!!!

    And it took a British journalist one day to notice "the Orwellian attempts at image control"? Was Ron Benzce and Tony Parsons too busy doing fluff for Concord Pacific. You guys do know that the time on the 'NewsHour' is for sale right?

    So, the local media is not telling the truth about the 'Shitty of Vanpukebucket?' Tell me it ain't so!!

    I had a meeting with a banker yesterday to get a jumpstart on my tax file details. he confirmed that they don't have any business that is not flogged to the CMHC, no matter what the downstroke. People who have refused to take the insurance even with 25 to 35% down are sent packing.

    I assume to mortgage brokers which is why the MBA is so fiercley lobbying the Federal Finance Ministry to stay the changes to the RE legislation in the budget. The banks are bloated and turning down business and the MBA is rolling in the left over swill.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    !(EconomicsDegree) Says:
    92

    @patriotz: "Because nobody is going to pay carrying costs of twice rental value … if there is no prospect of capital gains"

    Even if prices don't increase it is possible, albeit unlikely, that "dumb" money can keep prices flat for a while, as long as it is a small part of the global economy. I don't think BC can hope for this in real or nominal terms because prices are so far gone. Canada-wide, maybe there's a better chance.

    Personally I'd never take that bet but what choice does the government have but to try? The Fonz jumped the shark because the show was dead if he didn't.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    93

    @!(EconomicsDegree):

    I don’t think BC can hope for this in real or nominal terms because prices are so far gone. Canada-wide, maybe there’s a better chance.

    Can't happen for a Canada-wide average, and I doubt even for the median, because BC, Alberta, and Toronto amount to well over 1/2 the RE valuation in the whole country. And Ottawa and Montreal have gotten pricey lately too.

    If you mean there might not be a nominal decline going forward in Thunder Bay or Trois Rivieres, yes that may well be the case.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    94

    @Frank:

    The rents are tanking hard and fast, even downtown

    Note that the last time nominal rents declined in any sector in Vancouver was the 1930's.

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    Wow! The Canadian Real estate bubble made it to the Wall Street Journal. This is just published 2 hiurs ago.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703

    Excerpts from the article:

    Housing Rebound in Canada Spurs Talk of a New Bubble

    In Canada, nearly 40% of gross domestic product historically is generated by exports, mainly to the U.S., where economic weakness persists. To stimulate its economy, the government has focused on the domestic slice. In an effort to boost internal consumption, it has kept a key interest rate near zero—resulting in exceptionally low mortgages rates—and has offered various financial incentives and tax credits.

    Consumers have responded. Average home prices in Canada have risen 23% from their trough in January 2009. Home-sales volumes are up 70% over the same period.

    Canada's central bank and finance ministry say there isn't currently any reason for alarm.

    But some economists who are concerned point out that home prices are rising far faster than other measures of economic health. The 2009 price increase of more than 20% came as personal income in Canada fell nearly 1% and total employment was 1.4% lower than the year earlier. In a December report, the Bank of Canada warned that household debt—largely mortgages—was 1.42 times disposable income during the second quarter of 2009, a record high.

    Another possible danger: Because Canadian banks typically reset adjustable-rate mortgages every few years, those who are buying now at low rates will likely see increases soon. Toronto-Dominion Bank forecasts suggest that the rate to which many Canadian mortgages are pegged, the prime rate, could nearly double by the end of 2011. The Bank of Canada warned in its December report that if interest rates increase as expected, by mid-2012 about 9% of Canadian households could have so much debt that they'd be "financially vulnerable."

    "This is exactly what happened in the U.S., when affordability had moved way out of whack with prices," says David Rosenberg, an economist who witnessed America's housing bubble at Merrill Lynch in New York, and now sees similar trends up north from his post at Toronto-based wealth-management firm Gluskin Sheff.

    In October 2008, the Bank of Canada made the first of a series of rate cuts that eventually lowered the target for its key overnight lending rate to 0.25%, which in turn reduced banks' prime rate—the basis for calculating variable-mortgage rates in Canada—to 2.25% by April 2009. In Canada, nearly all mortgages have rates that adjust at least every few years. Currently, rates on some loans have fallen to 2% or lower.

    Ms. Gerard has been buying and renting out apartments for years. In 2009, she went into overdrive, buying six units in six months, with mortgages at rates ranging from 2.45% to 3.95%. She says she "maxed out" on the last mortgage, which pushed the family's ratio of debt service to income into the mid-40% range—above the level many Canadian lenders are comfortable with.

    Ms. Gerard says she bought all the properties for below the asking prices. "Money is growing on trees these days, lending rates are so low," Ms. Gerard wrote in December in an online forum for real-estate investors. "There are loads of properties to choose from, and the banks want to lend!"

    Ms. Gerard, the housewife in Red Deer, says she hopes to buy a seventh unit in a few months—after she pays down enough of her credit-card debt to qualify for another mortgage.

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    pricedoutfornow Says:
    96

    "Money is growing on trees these days…the banks want to lend!”

    Yeah, I'd happily lend out money too if someone else guaranteed that they'd cover the loss in case of default.

    I'm getting a really bad feeling about what this year is going to bring us.

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    buff_butler Says:
    97

    Canada made it onto CR!

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/new-hou

    We've gotten a lot of press this weekend.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    pricedoutfornow Says:
    98

    @buff_butler:

    "We’ve gotten a lot of press this weekend"

    No doubt because the rest of the world is beginning to realize that we're NUTS!

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    realpaul Says:
    99

    The bad press is obviously riffling a few feathers at head office. The world has heard enough of what fuck ups the local dinitarioes are so the CDN governnment has begun to ban journalists from entering the country if they have negative opinions.

    "Freelance reporter, Olympic critic turned back at Canadian border

    By soundoff Sun, Feb 7 2010 COMMENTS(132) Soundoff

    Martin Macias, an independent reporter from Chicago, was detained by officials at the Vancouver International Airport before being deported, anti-Olympic activists say. Macias was set to cover the political events during the Olympic Resistance Network's anti-Olympic convergence until Feb. 11.

    Katie Mercer"

    Zieg Heil Canada

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    realpaul Says:
    100

    This is really bad news for those fuck ups that swilled the climate change mantra (you know who you are). All those Liberal ploticians who tried to scam the western citizen out of thier tax dollars to shovel it into the gaping maw of the super corrupt third world have been exposed and trashed into history. The propaganda was intense, it left many actually believing the bullshit due to the heavy rotation advertising and corruption of officicials but my my, how the worm has turned.

    Apparently (its official) none of it was true.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/the-

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