Welcome!
VancouverPeak.com- jesse and Makaya are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic Sandbox. in the group Housing Data
- jesse posted an update: CMHC starts, completions and under construction in Vancouver […]
- The Ant started the forum topic BC Population Growth in the group Housing Data
- jesse and The Ant are now friends
- jesse and wreckonomics are now friends
- wreckonomics posted an update: New Year, New HPI. ”Selection Broadens and Demand Eases to […]
- Best place on meth and admin are now friends
- jesse and Best place on meth are now friends
- jesse replied to the forum topic February 2012 Daily Numbers in the group Housing Data
Wordpress theme by Abhishek Tripathi of Mediawick Digital Solutions
February 8th, 2010 at 12:27 am
The bad press is obviously riffling a few feathers at head office. The world has heard enough of what fuck ups the local dinitarioes are so the CDN governnment has begun to ban journalists from entering the country if they have negative opinions.
“Freelance reporter, Olympic critic turned back at Canadian border
By soundoff Sun, Feb 7 2010 COMMENTS(132) Soundoff
Martin Macias, an independent reporter from Chicago, was detained by officials at the Vancouver International Airport before being deported, anti-Olympic activists say. Macias was set to cover the political events during the Olympic Resistance Network’s anti-Olympic convergence until Feb. 11.
Katie Mercer”
Zieg Heil Canada
“In the early 80’s I was working in Vancouver. A friend offered me his two-bedroom rancher in Marpole for $135,000. At that time I was making $36,000 a year and interest rates were around 12 percent. I didn’t buy, then house prices started going Says:
February 7th, 2010 at 10:47 pm
[...] from Gordon C. at vancouvercondo.info 5 Feb 2010 10:24 am [...]
February 7th, 2010 at 10:44 pm
@buff_butler:
“We’ve gotten a lot of press this weekend”
No doubt because the rest of the world is beginning to realize that we’re NUTS!
February 7th, 2010 at 10:27 pm
Canada made it onto CR!
http://www.calculatedriskblog......anada.html
We’ve gotten a lot of press this weekend.
February 7th, 2010 at 9:27 pm
“Money is growing on trees these days…the banks want to lend!”
Yeah, I’d happily lend out money too if someone else guaranteed that they’d cover the loss in case of default.
I’m getting a really bad feeling about what this year is going to bring us.
February 7th, 2010 at 8:42 pm
Wow! The Canadian Real estate bubble made it to the Wall Street Journal. This is just published 2 hiurs ago.
http://online.wsj.com/article/.....17666.html
Excerpts from the article:
Housing Rebound in Canada Spurs Talk of a New Bubble
In Canada, nearly 40% of gross domestic product historically is generated by exports, mainly to the U.S., where economic weakness persists. To stimulate its economy, the government has focused on the domestic slice. In an effort to boost internal consumption, it has kept a key interest rate near zero—resulting in exceptionally low mortgages rates—and has offered various financial incentives and tax credits.
Consumers have responded. Average home prices in Canada have risen 23% from their trough in January 2009. Home-sales volumes are up 70% over the same period.
Canada’s central bank and finance ministry say there isn’t currently any reason for alarm.
But some economists who are concerned point out that home prices are rising far faster than other measures of economic health. The 2009 price increase of more than 20% came as personal income in Canada fell nearly 1% and total employment was 1.4% lower than the year earlier. In a December report, the Bank of Canada warned that household debt—largely mortgages—was 1.42 times disposable income during the second quarter of 2009, a record high.
Another possible danger: Because Canadian banks typically reset adjustable-rate mortgages every few years, those who are buying now at low rates will likely see increases soon. Toronto-Dominion Bank forecasts suggest that the rate to which many Canadian mortgages are pegged, the prime rate, could nearly double by the end of 2011. The Bank of Canada warned in its December report that if interest rates increase as expected, by mid-2012 about 9% of Canadian households could have so much debt that they’d be “financially vulnerable.”
“This is exactly what happened in the U.S., when affordability had moved way out of whack with prices,” says David Rosenberg, an economist who witnessed America’s housing bubble at Merrill Lynch in New York, and now sees similar trends up north from his post at Toronto-based wealth-management firm Gluskin Sheff.
In October 2008, the Bank of Canada made the first of a series of rate cuts that eventually lowered the target for its key overnight lending rate to 0.25%, which in turn reduced banks’ prime rate—the basis for calculating variable-mortgage rates in Canada—to 2.25% by April 2009. In Canada, nearly all mortgages have rates that adjust at least every few years. Currently, rates on some loans have fallen to 2% or lower.
Ms. Gerard has been buying and renting out apartments for years. In 2009, she went into overdrive, buying six units in six months, with mortgages at rates ranging from 2.45% to 3.95%. She says she “maxed out” on the last mortgage, which pushed the family’s ratio of debt service to income into the mid-40% range—above the level many Canadian lenders are comfortable with.
Ms. Gerard says she bought all the properties for below the asking prices. “Money is growing on trees these days, lending rates are so low,” Ms. Gerard wrote in December in an online forum for real-estate investors. “There are loads of properties to choose from, and the banks want to lend!”
Ms. Gerard, the housewife in Red Deer, says she hopes to buy a seventh unit in a few months—after she pays down enough of her credit-card debt to qualify for another mortgage.
February 7th, 2010 at 3:59 pm
@Frank:
Note that the last time nominal rents declined in any sector in Vancouver was the 1930′s.
February 7th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
@!(EconomicsDegree):
Can’t happen for a Canada-wide average, and I doubt even for the median, because BC, Alberta, and Toronto amount to well over 1/2 the RE valuation in the whole country. And Ottawa and Montreal have gotten pricey lately too.
If you mean there might not be a nominal decline going forward in Thunder Bay or Trois Rivieres, yes that may well be the case.
February 7th, 2010 at 2:41 pm
@patriotz: “Because nobody is going to pay carrying costs of twice rental value … if there is no prospect of capital gains”
Even if prices don’t increase it is possible, albeit unlikely, that “dumb” money can keep prices flat for a while, as long as it is a small part of the global economy. I don’t think BC can hope for this in real or nominal terms because prices are so far gone. Canada-wide, maybe there’s a better chance.
Personally I’d never take that bet but what choice does the government have but to try? The Fonz jumped the shark because the show was dead if he didn’t.
February 7th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
Oh Oh, a new poll suggests that 90% of BCers think that the Provincial GOVs are lieing about the cost of the Olympics. No Duh !!!!!
And it took a British journalist one day to notice “the Orwellian attempts at image control”? Was Ron Benzce and Tony Parsons too busy doing fluff for Concord Pacific. You guys do know that the time on the ‘NewsHour’ is for sale right?
So, the local media is not telling the truth about the ‘Shitty of Vanpukebucket?’ Tell me it ain’t so!!
I had a meeting with a banker yesterday to get a jumpstart on my tax file details. he confirmed that they don’t have any business that is not flogged to the CMHC, no matter what the downstroke. People who have refused to take the insurance even with 25 to 35% down are sent packing.
I assume to mortgage brokers which is why the MBA is so fiercley lobbying the Federal Finance Ministry to stay the changes to the RE legislation in the budget. The banks are bloated and turning down business and the MBA is rolling in the left over swill.
February 7th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
Moderator,
is there any chance you can remove the non pertinent trolling on this thread?
February 7th, 2010 at 12:28 pm
Arit this is a good point and most certainly willr eflect on the upcoming sales price.
What is truly frightening, and I urge you all to call some property managers and/or landlords from the paper, craiglist etc.
The rents are tanking hard and fast, even downtown, none of the sparsely furnished and overpriced olympic rentals are moving and in two weeks the already anemic demand for furnished rentals will drop 75%
So now there are double the rental units available with lots and lots of new ones coming and an inverted demand curve.
If you can rent a new one bedroom downtown for $1200 versus paying $1850+Strata Fees, taxes etc. now then what will happen to these fooles, er, investors when interest rates go back up to 5,6, 7, 8 % and the rent remains stagnat for a decade?
If you want a preview take a look at what happened in Las Vegas..
February 7th, 2010 at 12:24 pm
Hello Dear VancouverCondoInfoites,
It is with deep sorrow that I need to inform you of the upcoming cancelling of the annual Pamplona Bull Run.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_of_the_Bulls
It has been reported that this year the run has been cancelled due to the sudden migration of the bulls from their native Spain to an obscure condo blog in Vancouver.
The reason for the migration of the bulls is still unknown, but our sources tell us that sudden panic has spread among the bulls, causing them to drop everything and move.
Apparently, running around streets horning people in the back is no longer their main concern as they suddenly realize they might be slaves to the bank for the coming 35 years.
In a last attempt to reverse their fate, they have all congregated in the blog-bear-cave trying to see how many actual bears are there, hoping that the bears will be able to carry the burden for them in the coming years.
The bulls are secretly hoping to raid the bears stashes of food as they know said bears have been accumulating it since 2003.
Our experts mammal biologists mention that the bulls do actually have a good chance in succeeding in such a scheme due to past observations by biologists south of the border, where the bears where raided and their accumulated stash was mostly given to the bull leaders in Wall street.
Best regards
arit
February 7th, 2010 at 9:37 am
@Anonymous: “Do you understand your own joke?”
The argument was that Chinese move here and BUY property for the “free” and QUALITY health care and education. I’m saying if that is the sole reason they BUY here, they’re idiots. There are lots of other idiotic reasons for buying inflated real estate prices besides access to health care and education.
You are getting negative scores, dude.
February 7th, 2010 at 4:01 am
@!(EconomicsDegree):
Because nobody is going to pay carrying costs of twice rental value (even at the present rock bottom interest rates, which must eventually increase), if there is no prospect of capital gains.
How obvious can you get.
February 7th, 2010 at 1:17 am
and IP ban please k thx
February 7th, 2010 at 12:55 am
Slow down there methy don’t want to peak too soon.
February 7th, 2010 at 12:26 am
OLYMPICS!!!
WHOOOOOO!!!!
February 7th, 2010 at 12:26 am
ONE MORE TIME!
WHOOOOOO!!!!!
February 7th, 2010 at 12:23 am
@Believe2010:
Whoooo!! Whoooo!! Whoooo!!
February 7th, 2010 at 12:16 am
anonymous, re health care costs
you really are stupid aren’t you?
you are supporting “economics” argument – do you realise that?
February 6th, 2010 at 11:49 pm
I love how these suckers fall for the spin that Vanshithole is ‘becoming a big international city’. This is straight from the kool aid jug down at propaganda central for consumption by the local idiots who don’t get out much mentally or physically. This is why they say that living spaces have to go down to 270 sq ft. Bwahahhahahahaaha
Guys any city that you can walk across the downtown core in twenty fucking minutes is not ‘a big city with big city problems’ this is spin from developers who want you to accept the idea that you have to live in a shoebox. It is spin from the shitty council to convince you that 40% more condod can be built on the same site so that they can boost revenues while screwing you because your too stupid to understand the story.
The hype that ‘real estate can never go down in Vancoupuke is self delusion. I suggest people that actually believe anything that they hear of LIARTV get thier heads examined.
February 6th, 2010 at 11:49 pm
Believe 2010 olympics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....r_embedded
February 6th, 2010 at 11:38 pm
@!(EconomicsDegree): Onemore try,Asian people pay $500 for life in normal circumastances and $5000 in critical condition back there.
Luxury home will cost them millions in Vancouver atleast 573,241 is bottom line.Monthly healthcare bill over here is $120 per month for family even if you don’t get sick compare to nothing in their own country.
So based on your dumbhead theory an asian family will buy a home that will cost them $573,241 to 10 million dollars to get free health care to call but actually cost you in advance without getting sick.
Do you understand your own joke?
February 6th, 2010 at 11:21 pm
Anon watch your language. Why you go out of you way to sound like an ass is beyond me
Dude 1 spends 200k more on a house. He gets healthcare for life
Dude 2 rents and gets the same healthcare for life and 200k extra to bump the line for an MRI. Who’s better off.
February 6th, 2010 at 10:31 pm
@!(EconomicsDegree):Healthcare will cost them only $500 for life in normal circumastances and $5000 for critical condition.Average home price in Vancouver cost around 573,241.Economics Degree,It’s not just the economy and real estate that you don’t know but also you are so dumb to calculate social life.
Get the fuck out of here.
February 6th, 2010 at 10:20 pm
The heads of the country’s six largest banks have privately told policy makers that they fear the wide-ranging economic fallout of a U.S. style binge-and-collapse in housing.
Big Six banks urge Ottawa to tighten mortgage rules
…sometimes, theres just nothing more one can say
…RTP
February 6th, 2010 at 9:35 pm
MattX says…
Wake up to the fact that Vancouver is becoming a big international city. You will no longer be able to own a house like Mommy and Daddy did.
I guess your Mommy and Daddy were trying to protect you from reality by hiding all maps and reference material.
Vancouver is not, and will never be, “a big international city”. Perhaps you’re getting delirious with the current Olympic hoopla. It will pass very soon.
February 6th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
@patriotz: “It’s not debatable at all. It’s impossible.”
I disagree on point 1!
Please explain why it is impossible to have flat nominal prices on a national basis going forward.
February 6th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
Wake up to the fact that Vancouver is becoming a big international city. You will no longer be able to own a house like Mommy and Daddy did. Rich people will own houses and this has nothing to do with the average Vancouver income level. The rest of us may be able to live in Condos or otherwise rent. Prices will go down undoubtedly but not enough that the average or above average earner will be able to afford a single family home in Vancouver. Maybe there is Hope in Hope, BC.
February 6th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
The question is: will the government restrict the CHMC?
..figuratively chopping their balls off in public
interesting turn of events
behold the five naked dancing elephants in the room!
February 6th, 2010 at 8:14 pm
It’s seems this blog automatically turns into a mObile version. How does it do that?
February 6th, 2010 at 7:06 pm
Aussie holds rates steady after enormous pressure from world banks who fear the pursuit of the same liquidity prospects in theier own economies. In other words the Aussies are making them all look like like fools.
The Aussies are not happy pointing out a 13% inflation in the housing sector. Only 13%? What about my 21% increase here in Vanshithole? If any one thinks that we are not following Aussie because ‘we’re special’ its because we are fucking nuts holding rates at zero.
Marc Carney distanced himsef from the Gov policy a few days ago saying ‘that the jobs lost in manufacturing are NOT coming back’ and ‘if anything there will be an uneven sluggish reocvery without job growth’. So, all the BS the gov is shelling out about low intrest rate to get the economy started again is just total BS.
According to the BOC this is it! This is as good as it gets and Ontario is not going to regain millions of manufacturing jobs. The economy in the US is not going to bolster the conservatives chances for a sudden rebound.
So, JIM F stop piling on the debt, its time to get real.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a91.....abdc0.html
February 6th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
@!(EconomicsDegree):
It’s not debatable at all. It’s impossible. Both in theory and in practice.
February 6th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
Scoop, at any one time there are a mix of homeowners and renters. Of the renters, only a fraction will be in a position to, and want to, buy. Based on those umbers there will always be more voters who either have interest in seeing flat to rising prices or won’t have any interest at all.
It doesn’t seem too unreasonable that politicians and the government will try for monotonic increasing prices. It’s not surprising policies are trying like anything to avoid falling prices. Whether or not they will be successful is debatable.
February 6th, 2010 at 5:59 pm
@Wilma: It’s probably a google ad, like the other ads on this site. There’s less space on a celphone screen, so google doesn’t label their ads the same.
February 6th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
@usnews:
The media in Canada is actually just a conduit for the advertisers.
And yet they are so SHOCKED that people aren’t watching their stations.
February 6th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
@scoop:
After prices have fallen by 30% or so and unemployment has doubled (so they can’t be blamed for touching off the bust), the Opposition will likely try to conduct an inquiry. Remember they control the parliamentary committees and can subpoena witnesses. They will be assisted in this by the press, which is already on the Cons’ case.
In more general terms, the public will blame the Cons anyway because they were the government in power. It almost always works that way.
February 6th, 2010 at 2:40 pm
patriotz 58. But is it really tomatoes now vs. rocks later? Pulling the plug now is high-risk politics as the gov’t will be hated for two (contradictory) reasons: (1) by prospective buyers for making housing “less affordable”, and (2) by owners for causing price declines. But if they sit back and let the bubble inflate to the inevitable bursting point, the general public will not direct blame at them in the same way.
February 6th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
wilma,
one suggests yout mobile service provider
February 6th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
Anon54 from the buyer’s perspective it doesn’t matter where the money “goes”. They payed an extra few hundred K and in return they get “free” health care and education. That’s bad business.
February 6th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
There is add displaying when viewing this site on my cell and it doesn’t say admob or google where is it coming from?
February 6th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
@domus:
The referee can either make the call now, and be pelted with tomatoes from the stands, or not make it and have to deal with being pelted with rocks later.
February 6th, 2010 at 12:56 pm
heres a good read for the weekend. since when is saving bad?
http://dollarcollapse.com/arti.....%e2%80%9d/
BTW did anyone catch the new spin that the DTES is undergoing a “renaissance”? Tell that to the poor, the homeless and the menatlly ill that are being given the bums rush. Bwahahahahahahahaha
The inferance of ‘renaissance’ conjures up a very differant image from the reality don’t it? It is the local government who is saying that alll the imternational reporters have it wrong. Oh really?
Hey, when the 6:00 news consists of Ron Benzce doing a walk through piece on a new condo project you pretty know that the media is dead and the truth is laying beside it.
February 6th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
@patriotz: Spot on! That’s exactly what i thought this morning. The banks are appealing to the referee (the government) to restrict their behavior: it is the optimal thing to do in the long-run, but they can’t be expected to do it individually because of competitive pressures. Really interesting set-up, don’t you think?
The question is: will the government restrict the CHMC? That’s what it boils down to. Is the referee going to make this call?
February 6th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
@!(EconomicsDegree): Aren’t they buying to feed you and your elder brothers? and also to keep your jobs up.
throw your degree away because you don’t know economy and real estate.
February 6th, 2010 at 12:24 pm
52
How is it not “nearly” free? The hundreds of thousands they pay above market doesn’t all go to government revenue, only property transfer tax and some indirect income tax from the agents.
February 6th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
Hold the burger: Olympic chef changes menu after McDonald’s objects
http://www.theprovince.com/lif.....story.html
February 6th, 2010 at 11:48 am
“free medical care … free education”
Yeah and all it costs them is paying hundreds of thousands of dollars above market price for a property. That’s hardly free. In fact it’s a downright bad financial decision, seeing how they can rent.
logic 50 is almost right. Idiots throw away their money. That they are “foreign” is coincidence.
February 6th, 2010 at 11:36 am
@domus:
The banks are essentially facing a prisoner’s dilemma problem. They know that if the bubble continues, and collapses, they all will be worse off. But there is no incentive for any individual bank to restrict lending, because its competitors would just take the business, and thus that bank would end taking the biggest hit.
Also an agreement among the banks to restrict lending, even if it could be arrived at, could be viewed legally as a conspiracy in restraint of trade.
So the banks must appeal to a higher level to restrict lending to all of them equally.