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14,027 places to choose from

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109 Comments

Its March 18th and inventory numbers for real estate listings in the REBGV greater Vancouver area just rolled over the 14k barrier.  People are talking about this milestone in the forum and drawing comparisons to 2008 which was the last dramatic -though brief- market correction.

Inventory is now 14,027 and growing at a faster rate than it was then, with interest rates at record lows and forecast to rise soon.  On March 15th 2008 inventory was at 12,482 and grew to reach 12,851 by April 1st 2008.  Listings continued to grow through that year until they reached a high of 20,542 on October 15th.

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rp

#91 @Best place on meth: "Got anything for the +10’s and +20’s?"

Bought in 2007 and bought in 2006 ?

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blueskies

REAMED!!

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Van MD

@The Pope

Or a stamp that says "PANTLESS" ; )

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Best place on meth

@The Pope:

How about a big stamp that says "CONDEMNED"?

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painted turtle

Follow up on the $900,000 story… I wish it would be a fake story 🙁 . I do not know exactly how their relatives are involved, but yes they are backing up the mortgage in some ways. However, it is clear they are giving a signature but not a single dollar. I know another family (3 kids) who heavily borrowed from their relatives to buy a 2 bedroom, "for a few years, until we can buy a bigger place." It has been 5 years. They cannot buy a bigger place, they cannot give the money back to their relatives, and the elder kid (teenager) is not very happy sharing a bedroom with two smaller kids. Sorry Kite, but I am sure there are thousands of very sad stories in this market. You think they are made up? May be you… Read more »

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admin

@Kite towards moon: Wow, KTM.. Minus 80?!? Impressive! Maybe we need an extra special new graphic for that kind of score.

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pricedoutfornow

I'm in the Okanagan for work. And guess what? They haven't seen the recovery in housing prices like we have in Vancouver. Interesting. All I hear from clients is how much things have dropped (about 25-30%) I said something about "housing recovery since 2008" and all I got were blank looks. Nobody has too much optimism about the market recovering either, a lot of people have realized that condos are way overbuilt here, many are sitting empty. I wonder why the market shot way up in Vancouver, Toronto etc and not here? A lot of people have actually left town because the construction jobs are all gone. Imagine that, the sunny Okanagan where "everyone wants to live" Looks like that theory is not working out too well.

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averagejoe

@Best place on meth: @Kite towards moon: Just love those forclosed signs. You know what moon the kite gets the very first one. Way to go!

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Answers to the April

CMHC will allow a maximum of 35% of your gross monthly income to be allocated towards your housing cost, and up to a maximum of 44% of your gross monthly income towards all your credit obligations. Under the proposed new rule, a house with a $1000/mo basement suite will be treated as follows: 50% of the $1,000 of rental income is $500/mo. $500 dollars per month will be added to your monthly qualifying income. CMHC will allow a maximum of 35% of your gross monthly income for housing. 35% of $500 per month is what the actual buying power of this rent becomes. 35% * $500/month = $175/mo. $175/month translates to approximately $40,000 of extra buying power based on a 3.79% 5 year term and 35 year amortization. Under the existing rules CMHC applies an 80% offset for rental suites.… Read more »

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Desperate Bears

How is that STUDENT paper helping you out Patriotz… (30)

Feeling good citing an undergraduate student's paper to support your position…

Grasping at straws…

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Desperate Bears

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/nvn/apa/1647057…

Here is an ad of an owner that lives downstairs…

Found two of them on craigslist..

78 Partisan Inspector is full of crap….

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Anonymous

Predicting mucho bullish numbers on Larry's dailies tonight…

Buyers are slowly coming out….

Sell-list ratios slowly growing…

Delistings on the rise…

Careful what you cheer for bears…

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Anonymous

Speaking of craigslist ads, I personally like to search using the word "desperate"

No real hits now but during the 2008 correction, there were up to 100 ads, often for pre-sales, by desperate sellers

I trust we will get up to that number

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Dave

@logic:

The banks would win… big time. The BOC would lend the money to the end consumer through the banks at a fixed rate. For example, BOC gives money at 1% and the banks charge 2.5% to the debt holder. The only condition would be for the money to support pre-existing debt.

Where are the losses?

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logic

we already have a system of split interest rates. it's called fixed rates vs floating rates, with the difference in rates determined by the market. why should banks be forced to provide credit for those with existing debt (at the end of the current fixed terms) at a lower interest rate than the banks can raise money from the debt markets? this is a stupid idea, as either (1) banks would make massive losses, or (2) the govt would have to subsidize said losses.

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Dave

@Best place on meth:

Bear paws?

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Dave

@buff_butler:

RE Splitting Interest Rates – I didn't say they would protect asset values. I said they would protect the economy and jobs. I agree that new buyers determine the price of asset values. By fixing interest rates for some, higher rates will not affect their ability to service debt which prevents a negative spiral on the economy. Seems like a good compromise if needed. It protects people in trouble, it protects banks and it protects the economy.

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Best place on meth

I love the new FORECLOSURE and REDUCED signs.

Got anything for the +10's and +20's?

Suggestions, anyone?

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buff_butler

@arit: You have to drink every time it passes 20k. Ooohh sore liver… 😛

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buff_butler

Dave, "Their mandate is to only target inflation, but I believe they are going to have to rethink that policy" Your assuming the housing market and throwing out the old rulebook is more valued over inflationary pressure. The bond market not being a part of BOC wouldn't be as sympethetic. The govn't cares about jobs and not Daves house value; weather it goes up and down due to policy is a side effect. "are making statements to consumers about debt. For now, it seems they are happy with other institutions managing other aspects of the economy." Yes exactly, they like every other department in the govermnet is narowly focused on their mandate. They don't deviate because they don't want blame cast on them. "If interest rates have to go up, I could see them splitting in two: one rate for… Read more »

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Dave

@patriotz:

No, those people are not stupid. There is intrinsic value to owning a home beyond just finances.

Irregardless of that, your point of equivalence if incorrect. There are more factors to consider in the math when calculating the break even point. You have to also consider how much equity is gained and how much rent goes up over time. Do the calculation 10 years out and you probably will find the break even is something like 25% higher carrying cost than rent.

If that is truly your metric for buying, then you will rent in this city for the rest of your life. Trust me on this.

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Best place on meth

What does this mythical half bleeding heart/half arrogant bear creature look like?

And is it buying condos in Vancouver?

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Robert Rennie III

Dave, I could use your macroeconomic expertise for some upcoming projects please contact my offices ASAP. I've got the looks, you've got the brains…

Robert Rennie III

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Anonymous

84 –

"People who buy houses which cost more to carry (at current interest rates) than rental value are stupid, period, whether they live upstairs, downstairs, or in a tent in the back year"

Fair enough. No need to hide them or their "ordeal" from the public then….

Put the ads up…

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