A false sense of urgency?

Domus pointed out this editorial in the Globe and Mail, Tone down the real estate speeches:

A funny thing happens to people when an economic or financial trend holds in place for a very long time. They begin to assume that “a long time” equals “forever.” You can see this clearly in the U.S. Its home prices hadn’t declined on a national level since the Great Depression, so buyers and rating agencies assumed they could never go down – until they did.

Read the full article here.

On a side note Raincouver points out this morning that RBC and TD have just announced the first mortgage rate increases since October, with the other banks expected to follow.

The biggest jump is attached to the popular five-year fixed closed rate, which moves from 5.25 per cent to 5.85 per cent at both banks. That’s the posted rate, which is routinely discounted by the big banks.

RBC’s new discounted rate for the five-year term also rises 6/10ths of a percentage point to 4.59 per cent. TD’s rises the same amount to 4.55 per cent.

Both banks also raised their three-year and four-year fixed closed rates. The posted three-year rate at Royal Bank climbs one-fifth of a percentage point to 4.35 per cent, while the posted rate at TD jumps 4/10ths of a point to 4.70 per cent.

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Jun
Guest
Jun

I think everyone on this site should stop taking sides. Just keep it news worthy.

Thanks,

Vic
Guest
Vic

So the banks make their first move 😀 Do they know something that we don't or are they trying to force BOC to raise interest rates? Not so fun times ahead.

wolfey
Guest
wolfey

51 # domus,

that was extremely well written and well thought out. I met a german couple similar to this fellow and they left for ontario when the husband found a good job in Ontaario. It was a no brainer. They like the nature here but couldn't afford a home with the lower salary and they also complained about the lack lustre health care.

can come to visit but can't afford to stay

reknab
Guest
reknab

Superhappydupe must be laughing at himself as he types out info he obviouly realizes it ridiculous and a fantasy.

If you are really trying to rebut our arguments/position and mock us, you = EPIC FAIL

girlbear
Guest
girlbear

Superduperhappydouchetime:

Ya, you are right, who cares about mortgage rates. LOL. Certainly not the new buyer who might buy your parent's house!

girlbear
Guest
girlbear

You CAN make more land !!!! Float homes !!! lol

http://www.vancouveruniquehomes.com/SpiritTrailOceanHome...

superhappytime
Guest
superhappytime

Interest rate hike no big deal since most smart buyer use variable or already locked in. Only stupid, dumb, lazy, poor, rental slaves care about mortgage rate jump. Now you never get into market bear.

me
Guest
me

Dr. Dumb

Where is the surge in listings?

Vancouver East & West*

New Listings – 98

Back On Market Listings – 0

Price Changes – 34

Sold Listings – 43

Vancouver All Areas*

New Listings – 274

Back On Market Listings – 3

Price Changes – 125

Sold Listings – 141

*Attached & Detached @ 03/29/2010 17:18 PST YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.

girlbear
Guest
girlbear

German Guy sounds like the kind of person I wish would stay.

Stupid Bears
Guest
Stupid Bears

Please – big whoop – an increase of 0.60%. Lets see if the BOC does anything. Besides, how long do you think it will take for rates to go back to where they were? Years. Enjoy that 0.25% on your wad of savings. Oh wait, you actually make zero interest when you factor in inflation and taxes you pay…lol

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Where did the cheerleaders go?

Did the largest mortgage rate hike in 16 years cause them to shit their skirts?

domus
Guest
domus
This was posted on Rob Chipman's blog by German Guy (GG). Given the high quality of his commentary I decided to repost it here. It's worth reading. ______________________ After almost a year here, German Guy is going back to Berlin for good next week. Vancouver was a great experience but all good things come to an end I guess. I enjoyed this blog and the quality of posts here and learned a lot about the dynamics of BC and RE. As this is my last post here, I wish you all the best and thank you to all contributors. Here are some short impressions of my stay here: Things that I liked: Canadians: I met a lot of wonderful people whom I hope to see again here or in Germany and hopefully remain friends for a long time. The nature… Read more »
XXX
Guest
XXX

anecdote … Sorry

domus
Guest
domus
Great post at Mish's, thanks! This is the bit I liked most: "If Canadian banks were more leveraged and less capitalized, did something else make their assets safer? The answer is yes – guarantees provided by the government of Canada. Today over half of Canadian mortgages are effectively guaranteed by the government, with banks paying a low price to insure the mortgages. Virtually all mortgages where the loan to value ratio is greater than 80% are guaranteed indirectly or directly by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (i.e., the government takes the risk of the riskiest assets – nice deal if you can get it). The system works well for banks; they originate mortgages, then pass on the risk to government agencies. The US, of course, had Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but lending standards slipped and those agencies could… Read more »
Inventory
Guest
Inventory

Jan – Mar 2008 is so similar to Jan – Mar 2010

************* 1/1/2008 / 3/31/2008 / % change

Bowen Isld 33 / 62 / 87.88%

_Bby East 81 / 117 / 44.44%

_Bby North 299 / 592 / 97.99%

Bby South 321 / 430 / 33.96%

Coquitlam 503 / 941 / 87.08%

Van.&Gulf 114 / 120 / 5.26%

___Ladner 69 / 134 / 94.20%

MapleRidge 557 / 778 / 39.68%

_New West 303 / 448 / 47.85%

_North Van. 324 / 651 / 100.93%

OutoTown 188 / 314 / 67.02%

_Pitt Mead 138 / 173 / 25.36%

_Port Coq. 258 / 395 / 53.10%

PortMoody 225 / 425 / 88.89%

_Richmond 887 / 1560 / 75.87%

_Squamish 270 / 337 / 24.81%

Sunshine C. 540 / 809 / 49.81%

_Tsawssen 99 / 153 / 54.55%

__Van East 722 / 1202 / 66.48%

_Van West 1234 / 2329 / 88.74%

_West Van 324 / 488 / 50.62%

__Whistler 382 / 479 / 25.39%

_____Total 7871 / 13063 / 65.96%

realpaul
Guest
realpaul

#38 GB , the Fed is coming to the rescue and will open the door to more refugees. That should mop up the inventory in Westwood Plateau quick enough.

I buy treeeeeeee my huzba buy treeeeeeeeeeeee. Canada free money ssooooooooo goooooooooooo. I tink?

Inventory
Guest
Inventory

Normal Boom Year 2006

************* 1/1/06 / 3/31/06 / change

Bowen Isld 29 / 32 / 10.34%

_Bby East 65 / 79 / 21.54%

_Bby North 365 / 468 / 28.22%

Bby South 302 / 403 / 33.44%

Coquitlam 387 / 512 / 32.30%

Van.&Gulf 83 / 92 / 10.84%

___Ladner 62 / 92 / 48.39%

MapleRidge 449 / 546 / 21.60%

_New West 183 / 310 / 69.40%

_North Van. 267 / 431 / 61.42%

OutoTown 197 / 221 / 12.18%

_Pitt Mead 72 / 124 / 72.22%

_Port Coq. 179 / 269 / 50.28%

PortMoody 137 / 175 / 27.74%

_Richmond 764 / 1119 / 46.47%

_Squamish 188 / 321 / 70.74%

Sunshine C. 309 / 508 / 64.40%

_Tsawssen 65 / 118 / 81.54%

__Van East 626 / 989 / 57.99%

_Van West 1255 / 1674 / 33.39%

_West Van 300 / 388 / 29.33%

__Whistler 319 / 397 / 24.45%

_____Total 6603 / 9268 / 40.36%

XXX
Guest
XXX

A few annicdotes

Apparently my Whistler Pass, which dropped 20% in price last year b/c of the Olympics, will be the same price in 2011 if you pay up by April 30th. I guess the Fortress people are just "good people".

Also was at the Italian Kitchen for dinner with my wife and daughter on Sat night – no wait at 7. Waiter said the place has been serving 50% of what they usually do on a nightly basis since the Olympics.

Landlord just contacted me and wants to renew lease at last years price. Suspicious in that it's not up for renewal until end of May. I know he has other properties I got a distinct whiff of panic.

realpaul
Guest
realpaul
The Banks ar getting front run Flaherty and the nutlicking BOC gov Carney as the bond market demands more from governments around the world. If you've been flollowing the Treasury auctions have fallen falt and the Governments are still buying back a mojority of their own paper. hey good for the banks thay are filling in th arbitrage gap between the FTBs and the newest policy from Flaherty Flaherty says you must qualify for a five year term or no mortgage no matter what ther term, the banks have already realized that they has a slave market in FTBs who are suddenly having to jump a little higher. Can't blame the banks , it was the gov that opened the door. Lets face it if you were given a free opp to make more money wouldn't you> Natch!!!. So, the… Read more »
THANKFUL BEAR
Guest
THANKFUL BEAR

THANKS INVENTORY – PLEASE KEEP IT COMING AS OFTEN AS YOU CAN – YOU DATA IS EXTREMELY APPRECIATED

Inventory
Guest
Inventory

Correction date should be 3/29/2010

Inventory
Guest
Inventory

************* 1/1/2010 / 3/26/2010 / % change

Bowen Isld 46 / 93 / 102.17%

_Bby East 68 / 147 / 116.18%

_Bby North 345 / 637 / 84.64%

Bby South 362 / 614 / 69.61%

Coquitlam 531 / 968 / 82.30%

Van.&Gulf 215 / 254 / 18.14%

___Ladner 65 / 136 / 109.23%

MapleRidge 575 / 873 / 51.83%

_New West 262 / 536 / 104.58%

_North Van. 412 / 795 / 92.96%

OutofTown 105 / 84 / -20.00%

_Pitt Mead 121 / 184 / 52.07%

_Port Coq. 237 / 434 / 83.12%

PortMoody 213 / 371 / 74.18%

_Richmond 893 / 1567 / 75.48%

_Squamish 402 / 493 / 22.64%

Sunshine C. 656 / 989 / 50.76%

_Tsawssen 98 / 164 / 67.35%

__Van East 767 / 1192 / 55.41%

_Van West 1396 / 2736 / 95.99%

_West Van 386 / 618 / 60.10%

__Whistler 569 / 734 / 29.00%

_____Total 8724 / 14619 / 67.57%

Inventory
Guest
Inventory

Mar 29, 2010 = 14,619 **5:12pm

girlbear
Guest
girlbear

Every city seems to have (had) a claim to some reason it will be different:

Miami – International city, massive port, huge immigration

Las Vegas – gaming industry

Calgary – OIL !

San Fran – Rich Asians

San Diego – Best place on earth to live (like Vancouver)

hhhmmmmmmmmm

girlbear
Guest
girlbear

I have said it before, and I will say it again: If all the rich asians are only buying, then why is soooo much of Westwood Plateau for sale right now??