Friday Free-for-all!
It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for our news round up and economic open topic discussion. Here are a few links to kick off the weekend:
-BCREA: Feb sales strong despite Olympic fervor (pdf)
-Sales Inventory growing by a few hundred units a day
-Vancouver MOI still low
-Housing price reversion to trend
-Balanced budget plan about $10 billion short
-National Bank: Canada is in decent shape
-Canadian house prices on steady rise
-New mortgage provider on the block
-Buy yourself a newspaper
-
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
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March 12th, 2010 at 8:04 am
First!
You snooze you lose, Don Lapre!
March 12th, 2010 at 8:21 am
Hi everyone!
I believe in the power that comes
From a world brought together as one
I believe together we’ll fly a kite towards moon
I believe in the power of you and I
Happy Paralympic winter games 2010
March 12th, 2010 at 8:41 am
Third!!!!!!!!!!
March 12th, 2010 at 9:13 am
I just wanted to continue my point from the previous thread because I think it was missed by some. The point isn’t about market sentiment, it’s simply about how finite a market is.
In RE terms the market is heavily influenced by the cost of borrowing, simply because the cost to buy a home is more than what most people can afford on their own. Historically it’s as simple as rates go down, prices go up and vice versa. During this latest bubble, we’ve seen the powers that be try to increase demand as much as they possibly could through new rules, low rates, etc… We’ve covered it ad nauseum.
The latest stats (January) were that Canadians owe $1.45 for every $1.00 earned. And it has worsened since and BC in particular has the highest debt load per person in the country.
There is a ceiling to how much debt can be created, and taken on. Directly connected to a price ceiling.
I’m not saying there aren’t other factors at play, but if you break the market down to nuts and bolts, it’s just that simple.
March 12th, 2010 at 10:03 am
Nobody can predict stock market 100% so why so many think they can predict housing market 100%? People say stock market go up forever why not housing in Vancouver? If you like life and happy times then buy now or be miserable forever!
VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN
Current score: -22
March 12th, 2010 at 10:30 am
@happytimes:
Because:
1. No asset price can exceed fundamental value indefinitely. Markets which rise above fundamental value, i.e. asset bubbles, are Ponzi schemes and must eventually fail. Nobody can predict when or how quickly asset bubbles will fail but fail they must.
2. The fundamental value of RE is based on rental value which is very very predictable. Rents cannot grow faster than incomes.
3. Real personal incomes have been going nowhere since the early 80′s and real household incomes are set to decline due to demographic and economic factors. Thus rental value cannot rise to support inflated RE prices. Prices must come down.
It’s that simple and that easy.
March 12th, 2010 at 10:35 am
Happytiimes,
For a guy who actually knows how to use html tags you make yourself sound pretty retarded…
March 12th, 2010 at 10:36 am
I’ve been in and out lately; has this link already been discussed?
http://www.american.com/archiv.....ing-system
I came across it googling for information on full recourse mortgages. I’d love to see someone do an article comparing a typical Canadian mortgage default scenario with a typical American one. I’m sure our deep thinking, principled friends at Canwest would be happy to put something like that on the front of their Homes section, right? Right?
March 12th, 2010 at 10:36 am
Nobody ever said the stock market can go up forever.
Did you not pay attention in 2008?
This is the dumbest cheerleader post on record.
You should be ashamed of yourself, Mr. Jurock.
March 12th, 2010 at 10:43 am
From the schedule for this year’s Buildex:
http://buildexvancouver.com/a_......htm#thurs
T02 – The Real Estate Market Outlook for Vancouver
After a major drop in the real estate market, prices in Vancouver stabilized and began to rise in the end of 2009. Will this trend continue or will we see prices plateau in the near future? A panel of leading real estate senior executives will offer their insights on these and other strategic issues facing the real estate market in Vancouver and BC as a whole.
I guess this panel of experts considers the possibility of falling prices to be so unlikely that it’s not even worth mentioning?
March 12th, 2010 at 10:50 am
I would rather take $35 and light it on fire than spend that and my time listening to Cameron Muir speak for 1.5 hours.
March 12th, 2010 at 10:52 am
@MrBear:
Contrary to what a lot of people both here and in the US think, most US states are recourse. Even in many non-recourse states such as California, the mortgage becomes recourse if refinanced after the original purchase. For example, Mish on the biggest recourse-bust state, Florida:
http://globaleconomicanalysis......orney.html
Of course Florida experienced one of the biggest (if not the biggest) busts in the whole US, so the “we can’t have a US-style bust because our mortgages are recourse” theory doesn’t hold much water.
March 12th, 2010 at 11:07 am
Watch housing prices continue to rise throughout the summer. Better buy now and make a quick flip in the summer.
March 12th, 2010 at 11:28 am
@Supratool: Put your money where your mouth is. I dare you!
March 12th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
Crabman, you must have missed the post where Supra revealed he’s a professional fellator. He can’t possibly put his month where his mouth is, because it’s already full of phallus.
Hey Supra, keep on sucking. You might want to stop fellating your dad though, on an hourly basis it’s probably cheaper just to rent out your family basement. I’d say it’s more dignified but who are we kidding… y’have none.
March 12th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
New on Global TV this fall, a show for all ages:
“DESPERATE CHEERLEADERS”
A riveting drama starring Cameron Muir, Bob Rennie, Ozzie Jurock, Brad J. Lamb, Supraboy and that Kite to Moon Guy.
Follow their trials and tribulations as they try to prop up the collapsing real estate market using nothing more than fearmongering, tired cliches and 30 second sound bites depicting the rosy state of real estate.
Special appearance by evil villian, Garth Turner.
It’s must see TV you won’t want to miss!
March 12th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
Quick question about “equity”
The new property tax deferral program applies if you have 15% equity in your house.
What exactly is equity? Is it the amount you have actually paid into the mortgage such as I have paid 15% of my mortgage owed? Or is it the appraised value less the mortgage owed?
If someone has a o down mortgage (bought between 2006 and 2008), and prices actually rose 15% on your home, does that mean that you have 15% equity? If prices rose 50% compared to what you bought and owed do you now have 50% equity?
Any help is appreciated (and not I did not buy)..
March 12th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
@Equity Question:
Yes, although in each of these situations, you’d have a little bit more than 15% and 50% equity, respectively, since you’d have paid down some of the outstanding principal (assuming you had not taken out a non- or negative-amortization loan).
March 12th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
I have been told and read that it is mainly the “China” factors (both Speculators and immigrants from Mainland China) that have been driving the real estate in the Lower Mainland. Is that true and does anyone know to what extent it is?
March 12th, 2010 at 2:09 pm
I recently received an email promoting an “expert discussion panel” on the “Future of Vancouver Real Estate”:
I love how the 4 “expert” panelists include a realtor, two mortgage brokers, and a real estate marketer! And just to ensure non-bias, it’s moderated by yet another realtor! This would almost be worth paying the $10 to go to, if only to heckle them..
March 12th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
@20
We should SERIOUSLY consider attending – all 37 of us. All of us together. Should be fun. I’ll come if 10 more people come.
arit
March 12th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
I wonder if $10 includes food and drinks?
March 12th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
I will come if Kite to the moon comes…
March 12th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
@averagejoe: According to the Landcor Metro Vancouver 2010 Report, 977 non-resident Asians own property in Greater Vancouver.
March 12th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
@Happy Renting: Great find! So much for the rich asian factor!
OT, I love how the military is patrolling False Creek! Helicopters, gunships, the whole works. Another wise use of taxpayer money. I’m sure Al-Qaeda is chomping at the bit to disrupt the winter Paralympic games!
March 12th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
@arit: I’ll be there for certain.
March 12th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
24
Okay…
But from the same report: “Foreign ownership of Metro Vancouver residential real estate was extensive….”
Also, how many Asian owners are “permanent” residents by technical definition, but actually live and run their businesses back in Hong Kong and mainland China for the majority of the year (regardless of residency requirements)? How many non-resident “owners” have the homes listed under their children’s and wives names who are residents, while they once again live and operate their businesses in mainland china for the majority of the year (for taxation purposes of course)? How many units are owned by foreign shell companies (owned by one individual), as the Landcor data does not show that…
And if you think that there is strict adherence to residency rules, then you really are naive. There are numerous scenarios where “real” ownership occurs without strict adherence to residency and taxation laws….
I don’t buy into the whole rich asian myth, but I also don’t buy that only a 1000 units are owned by asian foreigners. Realtors, developers and even politicians like to espouse the rich asian myth theory. Are you seriously going to tell them that from their own data there are only 977 homes owned by foreign rich asians? Good luck with that one and let me know how it goes…
March 12th, 2010 at 3:36 pm
@Supraboy: Supraboy, you’ve been right for a while, despite the haters. But of course, being wrong for 7 years (like VHB, Freako, etc) means of course you don’t know what you’re talking about?!
March 12th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Re Buildex – I’ve attended many of these conferences and the panelists discuss from the viewpoint of a developer or property owner, primarily involved with commercial/industrial development/leasing. There’s occasionally there’some talk about multi-unit residential, but again from the developers viewpoint. They really have no reason to “cheerlead”. The audience interested in multi unit res. are just looking for insight to see if they can continue to sell their crappy units.
All the bears have lots of cash so it shouldn’t be a big deal to go and spend the $35 and take one of these sessions in. You can provide an alternate view and be able to comment fairly on their views.
No, I’m not a realtor…
March 12th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
#11 @Best place on meth: For $35 you could buy a can of gas and renovate a million dollar Vancouver shit hole.
March 12th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
@arit: #21
We should also bring our wives/girlfriends so that thinktom the moderator can ogle them while attempting to moderate with his angry wife looking on.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFJB7ktYdcU
March 12th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
Short article from FT commenting on.
Mr Carneys statement.
“you can have price stability, you can have financial stability if you get the regulatory side right.”
http://blogs.ft.com/money-supp.....sset-cake/
March 12th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Arit it costs ten bucks, you’re out.
March 12th, 2010 at 7:55 pm
R E B G V Inventory
Mar 1, 2010 = 12255
Mar 2, 2010 = 12324
Mar 3, 2010 = 12459
Mar 4, 2010 = 12670
Mar 5, 2010 = 12775
Mar 8, 2010 = 13019
Mar 9, 2010 = 13244
Mar 10, 2010 = 13439
Mar 11, 2010 = 13551
Mar 12, 2010 = 13609
March 12th, 2010 at 9:11 pm
Go Canada go
March 12th, 2010 at 9:29 pm
Inventory, thanks great stats
Inventory booming
MOI surging
Market is melting down NOW
March 12th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
@Maybe, Maybe Not: “Are you seriously going to tell them that from their own data there are only 977 homes owned by foreign rich asians?”
That is exactly what the report states. 977 properties owned by Asian foreigners. I cannot confirm if the Landcor data is bunk however ownership by foreigners is likely more difficult than for those who are either PR or citizens. The data may well be valid.
March 12th, 2010 at 11:02 pm
Contacted my financial planner to confirm what 5 year rate you will have to meet,the 50% of rental suite use, blah blah, he still has no concrete info on this yet and he works for RBC, this is less than 5 week away. When is the fu#king government plan to get the word out on this??Used the numbers a friend got from a mortgage broker 2 days ago to crunch some numbers.
$799,000 1.95variable 39,950min down =3300month
$799,000 3.69 5yrfix 39,950min down =3992month
$799,000 5.39 5yr bank of can. 39,950min down=4734month
variable to b.o.c difference is $1434/month yipes
I realize the down payment is small(the min.) but I will bet you its being done.I just posted the extreme numbers for this house price.After April 19 new rules, then the Hst+higher intest rates this summer should be an interesting FALL.No crash but a very sloooow market I think. Might peak my head of my cave this fall to look at the mess.GRRRRR
March 12th, 2010 at 11:05 pm
here is the most frightening news. Goldman Sachs wants to fund a company to buy the Canwest newspapers.
going from the frying pan to the fire- if you ask me.
If you thnk Cancrap was biased, wait until Goldman takes over the press.
March 13th, 2010 at 12:37 am
Anonymous 33,
Nicknames are free. Chose one and then insult me so I can respond to you. I don’t want to offend all the anonymous cowards.
Regards
arit
March 13th, 2010 at 12:39 am
FIRST!!!!
Oh, sorry, maybe not. Workin’ all day again.
March 13th, 2010 at 2:16 am
Please someone video tape the panel and upload it to youtube so many people out there can see our members in action. I think it would be a great media piece if this circus was disrupted to the point they have to cancel it or send in the national guard
March 13th, 2010 at 5:17 am
@Maybe, Maybe Not:
What % of properties are owned by Asians in Hong Kong? Maybe 99% or so? Did you know that Hong Kong experienced a 50%+ bust in the late 90′s? There’s a big city in Florida that has a reputation for being a haven for foreign money (and drugs). How’s RE been doing there lately?
Real Estate Bubble? You Bet! read about the HK bust, and more, in a article that got it right back in 2005
From the above article:
That’s really all there is to it. Fundamentals are fundamentals, regardless of who the owners are and where the money is coming from. Period.
March 13th, 2010 at 8:51 am
You cannot resist the power of the Vancouver condo presale Luke. Now is the time to buy.
March 13th, 2010 at 11:54 am
Over 1300 listings for downtown condos now. The year started with 850.
This is ground zero.
March 13th, 2010 at 12:12 pm
@31 Best Place on Meth,
Some of us might bring a boyfriend or husband instead.
March 13th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
Buy, you must not, wait you should
March 13th, 2010 at 7:02 pm
Lid blowing off plans for B.C. Place: Casino to anchor mega-complex?
http://www.theprovince.com/spo.....story.html
March 13th, 2010 at 9:13 pm
@Anonymous: I was just saying to the wife the other day that the one thing this town could use is another casino
March 13th, 2010 at 11:11 pm
#49 @No Longer Looking: Win back your real-estate losses!
March 13th, 2010 at 11:30 pm
@Anonymous:
Sucks to have bought one of the new Concord condo’s by Cooper’s park there.
This place will be very, very different whenever that Casino-rama shit is built.
March 14th, 2010 at 1:12 am
Paralympics is under way. More exposure for vancouver. hope this doesnt cause another price spike in real estate. All those paralymians will realize vancouver is the best place on earth and will buy up more real estate.
March 14th, 2010 at 2:21 am
Terrible week for the cheerleaders as listings explode.
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
March 14th, 2010 at 2:48 am
Of course listings exploded – it’s March. The only question is whether sales pick up, and we really won’t know that until late April or May.
March 14th, 2010 at 3:26 am
Yet another great forum to learn about the fabulous future of Vancouver real estate.
It’s the RICH DOUCHE, POOR DOUCHE GUY!
http://rdcr-van.localspecific.com/
Hooray! Let’s sign up and go see what Donald Trump’s newest BFF has to say about throwing our money away on overpriced crap.
March 14th, 2010 at 7:34 am
The Trials Of Trying To Trade Your Vancouver Home For Profit
http://wp.me/pcq1o-AU
An anecdote from ‘badkitty’ at greaterfool.ca, with discussion from vreaa.
March 14th, 2010 at 9:01 am
Does anyone know if this BC Place Casino BS needs to be voted on before it can go through?????
Jeeeez…Vancouver = HQ for gambling, drugs, prostitution…WORLD CLASS CITY ALRIGHT !
March 14th, 2010 at 9:35 am
Why are all you getting your knickers in a twist over the casino by BC Place? It will just replace the one that is there already. Like that is news. Give it a rest. You guys must be getting really ancy just waiting for something to happen with RE.
March 14th, 2010 at 9:52 am
Because, a New Casino is worth getting one’s knickers in a twist about -
This is representative of the kind of BS ‘economy’ that this city is running on.
It’s the equivalent of whoring the whole place away; of an engine running on fumes.
What’s next, a scheme whereby we use some of our taxes to buy lottery tickets?
I suspect that many of the powers-that-be in this city have secretly accepted that the only way forward is via tourism and entertainment; that they’ve given up on us ever being a base for truly productive industry.
March 14th, 2010 at 10:21 am
@Best place on meth:
“Terrible week for the cheerleaders as listings explode.”
I’m not too sure how much you can read into that Meth. I think the Olympics put a dent in listings and now they’re just catching up for lost time.
It may or may not prove significant.
It is nice to note that sales haven’t picked up, post-Olympics but that may just be because they lag a week or two.
Still, the trend is better for a crash than 2008 when only a hail mary pass by the government saved the Real Estate bacon.
March 14th, 2010 at 11:36 am
Isn’t this casino replacing the Edgewater casino? It also brings lots of parking. Odd, considering how the city council purports to promote transit by increasing parking fees and reducing available parking spots. Money talks, apparently.
March 14th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
“Intrest rates expected to rise in Canada well before the US”
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
March 14th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
Yesterday, in a bus, I overheard the bus driver giving a passenger advice about high end condos in Coal Harbour. This is a proof that we are not in a bubble, because only the expert insiders are talking real estate. The prices should go another 25% higher in 2010.
March 14th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
@No Longer Looking:
>>>I was just saying to the wife the other day that the one thing this town could use is another casino<<<
And real estate promoters. This town desperately needs more real estate promoters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6DbadXSOFM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37d0iampDqU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZZGXxyMsTo
March 14th, 2010 at 2:13 pm
China power
March 14th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
What I’m seeing now in the market is a increasing frenzy of activity. Buyers are excited post olympics and inventory is finally coming on line. I had clients who were here for the olympics who bought a condo btw. Lots of activity out there and I think prices are about to explode into a huge upward spiral formation.
March 14th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Anyone want to call how high the next peak will be before the downturn? I guess that it cannot be more than 25% above the trough price in 2008 because this is the maximum of what the interest rate stimulus can provide. It is more likely to be less than that because of lingering negative macroeconomic forces. So we are pretty close to the ceiling now.
March 14th, 2010 at 4:28 pm
Inspiration for Canadians: http://www.keenwalk.com.au/
Similarly, in Canada, the whole economy is now dominated by housing. High real estate prices are a priority for our governments (both, liberal and conservative) and record unaffordability is considered a success, while any decline in home prices would be considered a catastrophe.
Pure insanity.
March 14th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Thanks bubbly 67, excellent post.
@bubbly
I guess it is the voting baby-boomers who might be having a disproportionate gradient on politicians. Who knows.
But it is true: unaffordable home prices are seen as a success (sic!) rather than a serious problem.
It is insanity, but it is still going on.
March 14th, 2010 at 6:11 pm
@observer:
It’s turning now. Inventory is the leading indicator and it’s even more traumatic than ’08.
In 08 prices stopped rising in early spring I believe.
March 14th, 2010 at 8:36 pm
Check out this old NFB documentary: CMHC deals with blight in the downtown eastside… in 1964!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2xdYUk4iAY
March 14th, 2010 at 9:17 pm
It’s clear to me that bear despondency has peaked. How could it not? The real estate market continues to go up at a rapid pace and they’ve lost their chance forever.
March 15th, 2010 at 12:39 am
@superduperbulltime: Despondency? This is downright entertaining now. At first I was very amused, then I was concerned, then I was very concerned, but now I’m watching it all with great interest. How high can it go, I wonder? This is better than the Olympics.
If a Vancouver special hits $10M I will smile and cheer it on. You really can’t change anyone’s mind at this point. Everything has been said. People are going to do what they’re going to do, myself included, and for that our fates are sealed. I’m simply here for the spectacle now. I think this is the biggest housing bubble in the western world, and like the Olympics, I don’t think Vancouver will disappoint.
So here’s to a great 2010. Let us hold no grudges nor say I told you so if such a time should come. I wish everyone good health.
March 15th, 2010 at 7:10 am
@superduperbulltime: “It’s clear to me that bear despondency has peaked.”
—
The frothing at the mouth bulls really have no understanding of markets.
When the bears are despondent or even capitulate, the bulls should get scared of a market top, but they see it as some sort of victory.
—
PS Good posts re the central importance of housing in our economy, bubbly, thanks. It’s sick! The cure will be painful.
March 15th, 2010 at 11:12 am
Yes, that’s right nutslaps! In the city’s real estate prices and fundamental imbalance. No matter what Dave said that wages have not kept pace with inflation. Rent may rise, but not in the same order of magnitude, renewable energy prices. Now buy a house is a brick tied to the ball, shut it down buildings. onehorse said: “Now purchase, you are a fool”
March 15th, 2010 at 12:11 pm
Vancouver home resales decline rapidly MOM while they’re flat or growing in most of the rest of Canada.
http://www.vancouversun.com/bu.....story.html
We have hit the ceiling and are bouncing off.