Hot markets in BC
The latest issue of Business BC is all about the property market rebound and they focus on 5 ‘hot pockets‘ to watch for and invest in for 2010.
What goes down in B.C. real estate must, apparently, come up. And quickly: by the end of 2009, the average home price in the province had risen to $463,000, back to where it was in 2007. Interest rates are, at least for now, at record lows, and increasing consumer confidence has spurred the market’s recovery beyond expectations. Barring the usual unforeseeable mayhem, things are looking good.
Just for fun, let’s see if we can predict which of those five markets will do best by January 2011. Below are the BC markets they focus on, vote for the one you think will have the best percentage return by the end of 2010. In the event of a housing market crash, best performance would be the market that lost the least amount of value.
[poll id="34"]
March 7th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
@realpaul:
realpaul – The big bonuses ICBC officials get from having the surplus goes to upper management and basically every manager or supervisor in a non-union position. ICBC is management top heavy. There is one manager for every 8-10 employees. Most employees are fully qualified and dont need to be micromanaged.
The union employees do not get bonuses whatsoever and do not get wage increases and havent recieved one in the past 20 years. Even thought they are overworked.
I feel that public auto insurance and the money should go back to the policy holders – the hardworking people of British Columbia.
Its upsetting that our money is going into the pockets of Gordo Campbell and the BC liberals. Why not, he just threw a huge party for the world and kept spending our money.
March 5th, 2010 at 7:40 am
@Anonymous:
UBC has a graph of constant dollars for real estate. You can find it on the UBC link to the right. http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/HousingPrices/…
To answer the question, real estate was pretty flat in real dollars over that period of time. I think leaky condos and the NDP had a big role in that.
From 2002 to 2010 is obviously the bull market where real prices have increased by a factor of 2.
According the BC Stats the manufacturing sector includes all establishments that are primarily engaged in the physical or chemical transformation of raw materials or substances into new products. These products may be either finished (ready for final consumption) or semi-finished (used for further processing). Related activities such as assembly, blending, or finishing are also treated as manufacturing activities.
Yes, it would include PMC. They don't measure 'performance'. They measure production as measured by GDP. On the net, high tech stock are still down from the 2000 peak.
March 5th, 2010 at 2:40 am
Now that the deflection to arguing about 'real' vs 'constant' rather than the actual data Dave posted is complete (nicely done Dave) I have a couple of follow up questions.
Your data supporting the growth of manufacturing stops in 2002. What would a graph of real estate in 'constant' or real dollars from 1990-2002 look like?
How well does that time series correlate with the same data for the period from 2002-2010?
I'm not sure what exactly 'manufactruing encompasses? Would it, for example, include the performance of semiconductor company with head offices in Metro Vancouver? If so, how has PMC-Sierra' stock price performed since 2002.
Thanks in advance
March 5th, 2010 at 12:43 am
@Chilled: Apparently negative returns on investment are also allowed, such that a -30% return is better than a -50% return. So it makes sense after all and is consistent with the blog's groupthink. Just vote for whatever region has the least devastating loss. Wait a minute, it just now occurred to me that, with this post, the Pope may be trying to "reach out to all humanity" and give people like Dave something to vote for. Well, it's a theory.
March 5th, 2010 at 12:02 am
Laud speaker, loud speaker
Is that the same guy or are their two dimwits with almost the same name. I have noticed browntown, loudspeaker's and SATV all sound the same.
March 4th, 2010 at 11:54 pm
I can’t wait til this bubble starts to burst if only to be able to smack that smugness from Dave’s face. What baffles me is how Dave can make a prediction of soft landing,multiple offers this spring.
At least the bears have the reality of the world housing crisis. Virtually in our own backyard there is chaos. All the bulls have is it’s different here blah blah blah. Bubbles are nothing new and there are bubbles deflating all over the world as we speak.
March 4th, 2010 at 10:07 pm
@bestplaceonmeth: Thanks to give me break what i have to do here? Nothing? What has change here so far? 37 same troll calling crash! crash! crash! to make themself fool.I think i can sit back and relax because you don't even understand my english then what about the english you know since decade on the blogs.Is that really helpful? then you don't even know that listings are to buy and sell(baaa)keep on counting month over month and Y/O/Y.Keep on watching rebgv stats unless you get tired and sick of it.
bye..bye…fools,eh.
March 4th, 2010 at 10:03 pm
@Chilled: We like to mix it up
March 4th, 2010 at 9:50 pm
8
X taylor192 Says:
March 4th, 2010 at 10:34 am
Since moving here I haven’t visiting Surrey cause I have no reason to. Judging by the traffic over the bridges I assume Surrey is just another sprawling suburb people commute from.
What’s out there besides a sprawling suburb? Is there industry? tech? manufacturing? financial? …?
++++++++++++
Grow ops and the heart of BC’s organized crime industry. THE biggest industry in the province.
March 4th, 2010 at 9:50 pm
@Loud speaker:
You incoherent lunatic.
A) Larry doesn't tell people that they'd better get in the market because supply is tight. Only sleazebags (your friends) do that. And Re-max of course.
B) A seller doesn't have to have a mortgage. There are plenty of retired people who may want to take that 1000% appreciation they've made over the last 30 years, cash out and fuck off to Belize for the rest of eternity. I'm surprised they aren't ALL doing that. I WOULD! Not to mention scores of Chinese and other immigrants who came here decades ago. They can take their million dollars, go back to Asia and live like kings instead of staying in Raincouver and living like every other shmuck, slowly rusting away in their modest 1950's bungalow while rising taxes continue to eat away at their pensions.
C) I still don't know what the fuck you're rambling about regarding the U.S. market, and frankly don't care. Your command of English is piss poor at best and you should give up posting immediately.
Either that or go here for like minded people with similar skills: http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewforum.php?f=8&…
It's also run by an ESL cheerleader.
March 4th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
Dave:
It is a well known fact around this blog that you are a real estate industry insider.
Your point of view is heavily influenced by your dependency on the market to inflate.
What is NOT KNOWN is that through the wonders of the internet this site can work as a time machine. We, the rest of this blog's participants are IN A DIFFERENT TIME PERIOD than you. Yes, you heard it right. We are in CANADA in … 2010.
When you finish working on your current books, you will be unemployed, Dave, or David.
Here is what 2010 Wiki says in OUR TIME PERIOD about the work you are doing in YOUR TODAY:
—————————————
"David Lereah"
"Lereah has produced four titles on real estate investing. His most recent book, "All Real Estate is Local" was published by Doubleday in 2007. His 2005 book Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through The End of The Decade—And How to Profit From Them[6] was rereleased in February 2006 as Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust—And How You Can Profit from It.[7] Before departing the NAR, Lereah wrote All Real Estate Is Local: What You Need to Know to Profit in Real Estate — in a Buyer's and a Seller's Market in 2007.[8]"
"In October 2005 Lereah was busy calling the bubble believers 'Chicken Littles.' Many of the predictions espoused by the 'Chicken Littles' are fast becoming closer to reality. … David Lereah has lost credibility because of his irresponsible cheerleading."[9]
regards
arit
March 4th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
Man oh man @bestplaceonmethYou knows nothing about the key points for appreciation or crash.I am just wondering how would you bring crash here without knowledge of key points.
2008 listing peak was at 21,900.
2009 peak of listing at 15,900.
2010 started from only 5,000 or so listings
You think Remax scare people into buying more real estate so they make more money.What about larry? Isn't he trying to encourage sellers to bring in more listings?
If you have a difference with remax you must keep those words upto larry after all they are realtors,Nope?
Regarding Sellers and interest rates you say:What the fuck does that mean, Yoda?
That's mean……
1.If any owner want to sell their property they most likely to lose low interest deal which they will never get back again.
2.They also need to pay almost three months of mortgage payment to fill the panelty to break mortgage agreement plus seven percent commision to realtors.
3.Then they will also lose 22% expected appreciation for 2010.
You say:"Great,US housing market will show improvment and that’ll be in 2014 and what does that have to do with Vancouver again?"
Excellent,How would you bargain with sellers they way you did in 2008? If you remember in 2008 people were using US style crash to bargain with sellers.If you believe improvement will come by 2014 that will be constantly progressive from this point to 2014 that's mean you can't scare any sellers in Vancouver for bargain because market will improve overtime.Nope?
March 4th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
@Dave: Oh my god, Dave, you've convinced me. I'm going to give up my four bedroom rental house to get into this market right now and move my family into the one bedroom apartment in Maple Ridge that we can afford. Sounds *awesome*.
March 4th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
How can a blog that rails against the high cost of real estate, due to speculators with flippers even consider;
"Which BC market will see the best percentage return between Feb 2010 and Jan 2011?"
as a blog topic? Am I missing something here?
March 4th, 2010 at 9:10 pm
@Disbelief:
I'll accept the former but not the latter. Of course my opinion matters. My track record speaks for itself.
I always back my statements up with facts. All you have to do is ask.
Real bumpy is soooo 18 months ago. Multiple offers are the in thing this spring.
March 4th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
@Laud Speaker:
Geez Laud Mouth, I don't know where to start picking apart your post. I guess I could start with your English but that would be just plain mean.
"There were 15,995. mls listings in April 2009 while prices were going up constantly"
WRONG! That was April 2008 and look at how 2010 resembles "2008 to a T when it comes to total listings.
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
"report by re-max supply is very tight"
Of course those douchebags will say that, they want to scare people into buying more real estate so they make more money. Not only that but they're wrong, supply is rising rapidly.
"Why sellers have to break low interest rates deal to pass it to new buyers?"
What the fuck does that mean, Yoda?
"So sit tight until US housing market show some improvements."
Great, that'll be in 2014 and what does that have to do with Vancouver again?
March 4th, 2010 at 8:29 pm
Dave
Your ego wreaks of arrogance and ignorance. You really think that your opinion means anything on this blog. Go sell your bunk somewhere else nobody is buying it here. You demand people back up their facts and it's just fine that you pull them out of your ass. Soft landing that's what the general consensus of lesser morons think. Sorry Dave you better fasten your seatbelt it's about to get real bumpy.
March 4th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
@bestplaceonmeth: Your post did not show total numbers of listing maybe Larry don't want to hurt that bear inside you.
Key facts for Vancouverboom2
There were 15,995. mls listings in April 2009 while prices were going up constantly,according to recent report by re-max supply is very tight and why not?
Why sellers have to break low interest rates deal to pass it to new buyers?
Aren't they going to drink it till last sip?
So sit tight until US housing market show some improvements.
March 4th, 2010 at 7:57 pm
@Boombust: Any mention of squirrels?
When I buy, I'll have the sellers write essays explaining why their humble abodes are worthy of me.
March 4th, 2010 at 7:50 pm
@Supragirl:
That certainly wasn't the case in the run-up prior to the peak. That said, I do agree with you in that it bodes well for the supply-demand equilibrium from the perspective of a bear.
My rationale is that there isn't too much room left on the upside for price increases as affordability is nearing the maximum again. So, going forward, supply will be a bigger factor on prices.
The 2010 supply won't come on board for quite a while though so don't hold your breath. We first will have to deal with a shortage of new product because all of the inventory not started in 2008 and 2009.
Overall, I think we are in for a soft landing. Prices will likely be flat for a number of years. I don't see much upside or downside at this point.
March 4th, 2010 at 7:23 pm
I just checked Larry's daily stats and promptly shot my refreshing beverage right out my nose.
New Listings – 286
Back On Market Listings -8
Price Changes – 59
Sold Listings – 75
Holy shit.
GAME ON!
March 4th, 2010 at 7:22 pm
71 Dave
Sweet…more inventory! That bodes well for bears…
March 4th, 2010 at 7:12 pm
@Drachen:
Hey, that inflation calculator is great!
I just calculated what that average $70,000 detached house in 1977 should cost today adjusted for inflation. You know, the one that's going for about $1,050,000?
$250,000 said the calculator.
Whoo hoo!
March 4th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
@Boombust: San Francisco
March 4th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
@Starving Artist:
Give it a couple months. I can guarantee that construction activity in 2010 will outpace most predictions. Trust me on this.
March 4th, 2010 at 6:48 pm
Fransisco
I was in a hurry. Don't bug me.
March 4th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
62 X Disbelief Says:
March 4th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
"At least they’re young. They will learn the hard way that when you buy at the peak you lose. Money means nothing to the young a foolish.
Why did they have to write a letter like that? And to whom?
ReplyCurrent score: -1"
A very good question.
They wrote the letter to the CURRENT OWNERS. (I guess that's how the owners get their kicks?)
At any rate, I remember a similar situation I read about on "The Housing Bubble"(US site) blog a few years ago.
Some nitwit in San Fransisco insisted on poring over letters from would-be buyers re: whether the buyers would be willing to "feed the squirrels".
The avalanche of mail was unbelievably pro-squirrel…
THAT's how bad it can and IS getting.Weird. Very wierd.
"Stoopid is as stoopid does", I s'pose.
March 4th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
A story that fell through the cracks today…..
http://www.bnn.ca/news/16146.html
"The value of Canadian building permits unexpectedly dropped 4.9 percent in January from December 2009 on a substantial decline in nonresidential building intentions, Statistics Canada said Thursday.
…
The value of permits in the residential sector increased by 4.1 percent. The value of building permits overall fell in five of the 10 provinces in April, with the largest declines in Alberta (-28.5 percent) and British Columbia (-22.5 percent.)"
March 4th, 2010 at 6:39 pm
63 X Vansanity Says:
March 4th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
@Boombust:
Probably the same type of house, in the same area, that my parents sold 8 years ago for $265k.
ReplyCurrent score: -3
It may not even be worth that much in a few years.
BTW, it on Draycott.
March 4th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
Logic,
I was not sure whether he likes me to be here.
March 4th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
whoa there 64 retard
ranting at an anonymous anonymous
could you be any less coherent?
March 4th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
@Anonymous:I thought you were looking for direction with your same old bag and shoes,atleast change your years old shocks.Who the fuck has dump this anonymous bastard on vci? Oh! I see, he is none other than logical idiot.Hey logic!!!!! you fucking fringing idiot.
March 4th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
@Boombust:
Probably the same type of house, in the same area, that my parents sold 8 years ago for $265k.
March 4th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
At least they're young. They will learn the hard way that when you buy at the peak you lose. Money means nothing to the young a foolish.
Why did they have to write a letter like that? And to whom?
March 4th, 2010 at 5:14 pm
…er, the house is 1100 sq ft. (with a basement suite) one bathroom up and it was built in 1962. Central Coquitlam near Mundy Park.
March 4th, 2010 at 5:12 pm
I tried. I tried.
A young twenty-something, soon to be married couple has bought a house in Coquitlam for over SIX HUNDRED thousand dollars. With a minimal downpayment.
I have tried for SOOO long to get them yo see things as they really are. A huge, out of control bubble. Nope. Wouldn't hear it.
So, the papers were signed yesterday.
But wait, there's more. They also had to present a "letter" through their RE agent about "why" they would be "ideal homeowners" for this particular house.
The letter was presented, and the owners then gave their "approval".
The admitted today that she was "nervous" about the whole affair. I just nodded, in that polite way I have…
March 4th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
wow…the board is quiet when the lead bear posters get schooled by both bears and bulls…
maybe this board will shrivel up and die..
March 4th, 2010 at 4:46 pm
#19 Crab . Hey look, we're just like the Americans now !! We have our trillion dollar debt. The budget says that the national debt has ballooned to the 700 billion mark. Add in what the provinces and crown corps owe and yeahhhhhhhhhh ! we're beating the Americans at their own game. Isn't that special?
This BC Hydro increase is but one in a series. They have added that they have a 'revenue shortage' and require increase totally 20% !!!! Over the next three years !!!!!! My wife and I laughed so hard about that line…. a revenue shortage …..like everyone doesn't have a revenue shortage these days eh? Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha. Hey BC Hydro losers I have an idea ……STOP SPENDING !!!!!!!!! You don't have to give raises and bonuses to the execs every freaking year!!!!!!!!!!
March 4th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
Great now we have someone sucking Dave's dick, take that stuff to the alley or at least to superboi's basement. I guess we should be happy that at least we have one semi coherent troll here who actually speaks English. Thanks Dave just for being you.
March 4th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
Dave is right: constant dollar description.
"Constant or real dollars are terms describing income after adjustment for inflation."
AFAIK real manufacturing GDP in BC has increased but has decreased as % of total GDP. But check out construction GDP in the past decade. Whoa Nelly!
March 4th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
>>>Keep up the good work Dave. It is clear that you have accurately called the market in the past…<<<
DISCLAIMER: Past performance does not indicate future returns.
– The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent
March 4th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
new lows…
March 4th, 2010 at 3:32 pm
Dave vs. Drachen….that was funny. Thanks for posting the wiki link Drachen and making Dave's point for him.
March 4th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
Drachen, Dave is correct; constant dollars are adjusted for inflation.
March 4th, 2010 at 3:10 pm
@Dr. Know:
>>>Keep up the good work Dave. It is clear that you have accurately called the market in the past…<<<
DISCLAIMER: Past performance does not indicate future returns.