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Hot markets in BC

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The latest issue of Business BC is all about the property market rebound and they focus on 5 ‘hot pockets‘ to watch for and invest in for 2010.

What goes down in B.C. real estate must, apparently, come up. And quickly: by the end of 2009, the average home price in the province had risen to $463,000, back to where it was in 2007. Interest rates are, at least for now, at record lows, and increasing consumer confidence has spurred the market’s recovery beyond expectations. Barring the usual unforeseeable mayhem, things are looking good.

Just for fun, let’s see if we can predict which of those five markets will do best by January 2011.  Below are the BC markets they focus on, vote for the one you think will have the best percentage return by the end of 2010.  In the event of a housing market crash, best performance would be the market that lost the least amount of value.

[poll id=”34″]

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Anonymous

@realpaul:

realpaul – The big bonuses ICBC officials get from having the surplus goes to upper management and basically every manager or supervisor in a non-union position. ICBC is management top heavy. There is one manager for every 8-10 employees. Most employees are fully qualified and dont need to be micromanaged.

The union employees do not get bonuses whatsoever and do not get wage increases and havent recieved one in the past 20 years. Even thought they are overworked.

I feel that public auto insurance and the money should go back to the policy holders – the hardworking people of British Columbia.

Its upsetting that our money is going into the pockets of Gordo Campbell and the BC liberals. Why not, he just threw a huge party for the world and kept spending our money.

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Dave

@Anonymous: UBC has a graph of constant dollars for real estate. You can find it on the UBC link to the right. http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/HousingPrices/… To answer the question, real estate was pretty flat in real dollars over that period of time. I think leaky condos and the NDP had a big role in that. From 2002 to 2010 is obviously the bull market where real prices have increased by a factor of 2. According the BC Stats the manufacturing sector includes all establishments that are primarily engaged in the physical or chemical transformation of raw materials or substances into new products. These products may be either finished (ready for final consumption) or semi-finished (used for further processing). Related activities such as assembly, blending, or finishing are also treated as manufacturing activities. Yes, it would include PMC. They don't measure 'performance'. They… Read more »

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Anonymous

Now that the deflection to arguing about 'real' vs 'constant' rather than the actual data Dave posted is complete (nicely done Dave) I have a couple of follow up questions.

Your data supporting the growth of manufacturing stops in 2002. What would a graph of real estate in 'constant' or real dollars from 1990-2002 look like?

How well does that time series correlate with the same data for the period from 2002-2010?

I'm not sure what exactly 'manufactruing encompasses? Would it, for example, include the performance of semiconductor company with head offices in Metro Vancouver? If so, how has PMC-Sierra' stock price performed since 2002.

Thanks in advance

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Dan in Calgary

: Apparently negative returns on investment are also allowed, such that a -30% return is better than a -50% return. So it makes sense after all and is consistent with the blog's groupthink. Just vote for whatever region has the least devastating loss. Wait a minute, it just now occurred to me that, with this post, the Pope may be trying to "reach out to all humanity" and give people like Dave something to vote for. Well, it's a theory.

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Disbelief

Laud speaker, loud speaker
Is that the same guy or are their two dimwits with almost the same name. I have noticed browntown, loudspeaker's and SATV all sound the same.

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Disbelief

I can’t wait til this bubble starts to burst if only to be able to smack that smugness from Dave’s face. What baffles me is how Dave can make a prediction of soft landing,multiple offers this spring.
At least the bears have the reality of the world housing crisis. Virtually in our own backyard there is chaos. All the bulls have is it’s different here blah blah blah. Bubbles are nothing new and there are bubbles deflating all over the world as we speak.

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Loud speaker

@bestplaceonmeth: Thanks to give me break what i have to do here? Nothing? What has change here so far? 37 same troll calling crash! crash! crash! to make themself fool.I think i can sit back and relax because you don't even understand my english then what about the english you know since decade on the blogs.Is that really helpful? then you don't even know that listings are to buy and sell(baaa)keep on counting month over month and Y/O/Y.Keep on watching rebgv stats unless you get tired and sick of it.

bye..bye…fools,eh.

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B. Verr

@Chilled: We like to mix it up 😀

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Chilled

8
X taylor192 Says:

March 4th, 2010 at 10:34 am

Since moving here I haven’t visiting Surrey cause I have no reason to. Judging by the traffic over the bridges I assume Surrey is just another sprawling suburb people commute from.

What’s out there besides a sprawling suburb? Is there industry? tech? manufacturing? financial? …?
++++++++++++
Grow ops and the heart of BC’s organized crime industry. THE biggest industry in the province.

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bestplaceonmeth

@Loud speaker: You incoherent lunatic. A) Larry doesn't tell people that they'd better get in the market because supply is tight. Only sleazebags (your friends) do that. And Re-max of course. B) A seller doesn't have to have a mortgage. There are plenty of retired people who may want to take that 1000% appreciation they've made over the last 30 years, cash out and fuck off to Belize for the rest of eternity. I'm surprised they aren't ALL doing that. I WOULD! Not to mention scores of Chinese and other immigrants who came here decades ago. They can take their million dollars, go back to Asia and live like kings instead of staying in Raincouver and living like every other shmuck, slowly rusting away in their modest 1950's bungalow while rising taxes continue to eat away at their pensions. C)… Read more »

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arit

Dave: It is a well known fact around this blog that you are a real estate industry insider. Your point of view is heavily influenced by your dependency on the market to inflate. What is NOT KNOWN is that through the wonders of the internet this site can work as a time machine. We, the rest of this blog's participants are IN A DIFFERENT TIME PERIOD than you. Yes, you heard it right. We are in CANADA in … 2010. When you finish working on your current books, you will be unemployed, Dave, or David. Here is what 2010 Wiki says in OUR TIME PERIOD about the work you are doing in YOUR TODAY: ————————————— "David Lereah" "Lereah has produced four titles on real estate investing. His most recent book, "All Real Estate is Local" was published by Doubleday in… Read more »

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Loud speaker

Man oh man @bestplaceonmethYou knows nothing about the key points for appreciation or crash.I am just wondering how would you bring crash here without knowledge of key points. 2008 listing peak was at 21,900. 2009 peak of listing at 15,900. 2010 started from only 5,000 or so listings You think Remax scare people into buying more real estate so they make more money.What about larry? Isn't he trying to encourage sellers to bring in more listings? If you have a difference with remax you must keep those words upto larry after all they are realtors,Nope? Regarding Sellers and interest rates you say:What the fuck does that mean, Yoda? That's mean…… 1.If any owner want to sell their property they most likely to lose low interest deal which they will never get back again. 2.They also need to pay almost three… Read more »

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Absinthe

@Dave: Oh my god, Dave, you've convinced me. I'm going to give up my four bedroom rental house to get into this market right now and move my family into the one bedroom apartment in Maple Ridge that we can afford. Sounds *awesome*.

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Chilled

How can a blog that rails against the high cost of real estate, due to speculators with flippers even consider;

"Which BC market will see the best percentage return between Feb 2010 and Jan 2011?"

as a blog topic? Am I missing something here?

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Dave

@Disbelief:

I'll accept the former but not the latter. Of course my opinion matters. My track record speaks for itself.

I always back my statements up with facts. All you have to do is ask.

Real bumpy is soooo 18 months ago. Multiple offers are the in thing this spring.

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bestplaceonmeth

@Laud Speaker: Geez Laud Mouth, I don't know where to start picking apart your post. I guess I could start with your English but that would be just plain mean. "There were 15,995. mls listings in April 2009 while prices were going up constantly" WRONG! That was April 2008 and look at how 2010 resembles "2008 to a T when it comes to total listings. http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/ "report by re-max supply is very tight" Of course those douchebags will say that, they want to scare people into buying more real estate so they make more money. Not only that but they're wrong, supply is rising rapidly. "Why sellers have to break low interest rates deal to pass it to new buyers?" What the fuck does that mean, Yoda? "So sit tight until US housing market show some improvements." Great, that'll be… Read more »

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Disbelief

Dave
Your ego wreaks of arrogance and ignorance. You really think that your opinion means anything on this blog. Go sell your bunk somewhere else nobody is buying it here. You demand people back up their facts and it's just fine that you pull them out of your ass. Soft landing that's what the general consensus of lesser morons think. Sorry Dave you better fasten your seatbelt it's about to get real bumpy.

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Laud Speaker

@bestplaceonmeth: Your post did not show total numbers of listing maybe Larry don't want to hurt that bear inside you.

Key facts for Vancouverboom2

There were 15,995. mls listings in April 2009 while prices were going up constantly,according to recent report by re-max supply is very tight and why not?

Why sellers have to break low interest rates deal to pass it to new buyers?

Aren't they going to drink it till last sip?

So sit tight until US housing market show some improvements.

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No Longer Looking

@Boombust: Any mention of squirrels?

When I buy, I'll have the sellers write essays explaining why their humble abodes are worthy of me.

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Dave

@Supragirl:

That certainly wasn't the case in the run-up prior to the peak. That said, I do agree with you in that it bodes well for the supply-demand equilibrium from the perspective of a bear.

My rationale is that there isn't too much room left on the upside for price increases as affordability is nearing the maximum again. So, going forward, supply will be a bigger factor on prices.

The 2010 supply won't come on board for quite a while though so don't hold your breath. We first will have to deal with a shortage of new product because all of the inventory not started in 2008 and 2009.

Overall, I think we are in for a soft landing. Prices will likely be flat for a number of years. I don't see much upside or downside at this point.

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bestplaceonmeth

I just checked Larry's daily stats and promptly shot my refreshing beverage right out my nose.

New Listings – 286

Back On Market Listings -8

Price Changes – 59

Sold Listings – 75

Holy shit.

GAME ON!

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Supragirl

71 Dave

Sweet…more inventory! That bodes well for bears…

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bestplaceonmeth

@Drachen:

Hey, that inflation calculator is great!

I just calculated what that average $70,000 detached house in 1977 should cost today adjusted for inflation. You know, the one that's going for about $1,050,000?

$250,000 said the calculator.

Whoo hoo!

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Anonymous

@Boombust: San Francisco

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Dave

@Starving Artist:

Give it a couple months. I can guarantee that construction activity in 2010 will outpace most predictions. Trust me on this.

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