Owe the Podium
Well that was fun. The games have wrapped up, but we’re not completely done yet – the Paralympics are up next, so still a chance to partake in some Olympic fun before 2012. Hopefully everyone out there had a good couple of weeks, whether you stayed in town or skipped out to some holiday destination.
Despite a bad start to the games, we had some unseasonably beautiful weather and wrapped up with a nice amount of Gold for Canada. Overall a positive experience with an upbeat ending.
So now what? We’ll find out what bills are due soon, but what will be the long term economic result of hosting the games? Are there people out there that have just discovered Vancouver and now must move here and buy at any price?
A recent UBC study found that host cities see no measurable boom or bust in real estate values due to the Olympics, but maybe it’s different here. Do you think the next few years will see an economic boom or bust in BC?
March 1st, 2010 at 7:18 am 1
Dangle!
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March 1st, 2010 at 7:52 am 2
Yup. Over.
I thought the closing ceremony was a bit of a bust.
I am sooo sick of people telling us how polite Canadians are. Who says THAT? The Americans, of course. Do we have to fawn all over what they think of us? Eh?
Or, the "displays of patriotism". They made it sound as if this were something new…
That John Furlong needs some serious help from Toastmasters and a French tutor or 3.
WHY they trotted out Shatner, Neil Young (ugh!) and oh, don't forget Michael J Fox…beats me. Even Fox himself said he hadn't lived here for over 30 years. He's a nobody.
Are we that hard up?
The end part with "K-Os" looked like they were profiling the culture of South Central LA with all that rap and break dancing junk…Embarassing.
Avril was okay, Alanis was excellent. Nickleback, okay…
Nicky Yanofsky is certainly an up and comer.
Where were Celine, Jann Arden? le Cirque?
SEVEN years to plan this.
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March 1st, 2010 at 8:24 am 3
I know tons of people who want to move to BC but when they look at a) the available jobs and b) house prices, they laugh and go back home.
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March 1st, 2010 at 8:25 am 4
the UBC study says no boom or bust due to the olympics, but it doesn't say that hosting the games will protect you from a boom or bust due to other factors. We had a boom thanks to CMHC government intervention and low interest rates, and will have a bust for the same reason any market busts: prices got too high.
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March 1st, 2010 at 9:06 am 5
@Hachi:
Of course. Not even Tsur would claim something so absurd, but that doesn't stop the average fool from thinking it does.
I agree that Neil isn't as cute as Avril Lavigne, but he showed more musicianship than everyone else in the show put together.
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March 1st, 2010 at 9:15 am 6
I have a slightly offtopic question- when the lawsuits roll in from the Georgian athletes death, who will be held responsible for the tracks safety? Is there any chance that taxpayers will be on the hook for that settlement?
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March 1st, 2010 at 9:32 am 7
"I agree that Neil isn’t as cute as Avril Lavigne, but he showed more musicianship"
Are you including that whiny voice of his as part of his music?
Gimme Buble any day over that dude.
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March 1st, 2010 at 9:39 am 8
Now that the games are over, let's look at the results of the $118M Own the Podium program. Canada won 24 medals in Turin. If you take out the 2 medals won in skicross (which weren't in the Turin games), Canada got 24 medals. $118M down the drain…
It's even worse when you consider the following. Studies have shown that hosting the Olympics increases the medal count for the host country by 50% on average from the preceding games.
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:18 am 9
"A recent UBC study found that host cities see no measurable boom or bust in real estate values due to the Olympics, but maybe it’s different here."
We won't bust because of the Olympics. We'll bust because the market has reached unsustainable levels.
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:41 am 10
Game over, let the housing crash begin!
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:44 am 11
We could have a bust simply because everyone expects a boom. Our hype machine went into overdrive so we created unrealistic expectations IMHO. Everyone I talk to expects the previous building boom to come back. They don't know why other than Vancouver is "the best place on earth". The last few years have been fantastic (as in fantasy), so why not the next few?
What could unravel this quickly, is sudden, massive cutbacks in government spending. I'll be watching to see the next provincial budget and the reactions to it.
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:45 am 12
@crabman:
Ummm, I'm a pretty big Olympic cynic, but ummm we won the most gold medals in Winter Olympic games history! What more do you want exactly?
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:58 am 13
the hangover will long and painful. If you want to know what the future will look like afte the olympics, look at Greece. We are on the same track, getting there slowly.
I liked
Winning the hockey gold by team canada, that was a great moment.
I disliked
- woman hockey team drinking, smoking and pissing on ice, what a low moment that was! Shame on them.
- death of the georgian luger and Vanoc blaming his inexperience, that will come to haunt us back
- too much show of patriotism and arrogance, for a host country that was a bit disgraceful. It is very difficult to draw a line between patriotism and nationalism. I wish we d been more humbble.
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:59 am 14
Yay the gold medal rush
boo the March 4 Throne speech (when we get to pay for it all through cutbacks)
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:08 am 15
Boombust: "Or, the “displays of patriotism”. They made it sound as if this were something new…"
I've lived in Vancouver my whole life and never seen anything like the last 2 weeks. Not to say we aren't ever patriotic, but I saw more canada flag capes and red and white wigs in the past 17 days than I have seen in my whole life. Recent events were above and beyond anything we normally see.
Patriotz: "I agree that Neil isn’t as cute as Avril Lavigne, but he showed more musicianship than everyone else in the show put together."
Here here! I didnt watch the closing but I did catch his part and I thought he did a fine job, though I cant compare it to other performances.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:16 am 16
@Boombust:
You'd prefer to see Celine Dion over Neil Young? Wow, I feel sorry for you. Seriously.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:17 am 17
I gotta say the musical acts were pretty bad. Neil Young was good and Michael Buble is good but Maple Leaf Forever and the inflatable junk accompanying it was stupid. The Russian portion of the show was simply amazing and made us look like boobs.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:26 am 18
I guess we all have our own tastes, but I really don't get the whole Buble thing. He just sounds like a bad elevator-version of Sinatra to me. But hey, each to their own.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:33 am 19
@No Longer Looking:
I believe the article alludes to a boom leading up to the Olympics which then results in a bust afterwards. Comments like, "Now that the games are over, let's bring on the bust" is what the study is addressing. It'd be hard to continue matching the development pace that's spurred on by the Olympics.
Here's another interview of the director of business development on future investment directions.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/brit…
I know that you guys are going to shoot the messenger, but Prime Minister is on TV commenting on the Vancouver games now. He's recognizing that the world has a renewed view of Canada, specifically BC, and more infrastructure projects will be funded to support the tourism. He's suggesting that the success of these games will boost Canada's impact on the world stage. The West coast is going to be "key".
Incidentally, no idea why people keep harping on this, but this is not a question of fundamentals. Frankly, there is no such thing as "fundamental" value for something as large as a home, and thus no way can you define "bubble". "Fundamentals", at least in the equity world, refers to a set of statistics that are less prone to interpretation. It's as opposed to technical analysis which is an attempt to measure the emotional impact.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:35 am 20
Well, according to the Sun the economy was on the up and up in the fourth quarter of last year thanks to people spending money that they don't have at retail, and buying homes. Also they say exports were up. What says everyone, expect to see these numbers revised down sharply? More pressure for the BoC to raise interest rates?
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canada+econo…
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:38 am 21
@davers:
That's more what I'd call chauvinism or boosterism. Not quite nationalism, which is more about concrete political action a la PQ.
But I don't call it patriotism, which IMHO means being willing to put the interests of your country above your own. Everyone thought there was something in the Owelympics for themselves. Nobody in this whole event was making any sacrifices, certainly not the organizers, not the competitors (except the poor fellow who died), the spectators, or the people in the streets. In the long run the taxpayers will, but they didn't expect to.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:41 am 22
I think that the best wrap up for closing ceremonies would be Mr. Cohen with his "Everobody Knows".
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:48 am 23
@tim:
Patently untrue on all counts. In fact fundamental value is easier to estimate for residential RE than any other real asset, because its earnings – rental value – are so predictable. I've said it before – every analyst who correctly predicted the bust in the US and elsewhere did so on the basis of RE fundamentals.
It's corporate earnings, which determine fundamental value for the stock market, which are far more prone to interpretation (or cooking the books to put it more plainly) and uncertainty. By a country mile.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:49 am 24
I thought the Nickelback song was an ironic choice:
"We're screaming like demons, swinging from the ceiling
I got a fist full of fifties, tequila just hit me
Oh, we got no class, no taste, no shirt, and shit faced
We got it lined up, shot down, firing back straight crown"
"We're going off tonight to kick out every light
Take anything that we want, drink everything in sight
We're going till the world stops turning
While we burn it to the ground tonight"
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:50 am 25
I loved the giant inflated beavers and moose. If I could find a reasonably priced house right now in Vancouver, I would buy it this instant and put a moose in the backyard and a beaver on the porch.
Oh, wait, a million dollars for a teardown on the westside? Sorry beaver and moose. BANG BANG.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:53 am 26
THE ECONOMY BOOMED BACK
UBC study shows increase in construction activities if developers did not respond to increased housing demand Vancouver R.E. should have touch atleast $2000 per sq.ft. in the lower corner and almost 5000 per sq.ft. in Downtown Vancouver in 2007.So someone has taken advantage on the speed include developers and Rich investors who took the game to Surrey then to Edmonton and Calgary.
Are there people out there that have just discovered Vancouver and now must move here and buy at any price?
Yes if you look at the comment section on Vancouver time lapse HD video most of the posters are outsiders plus some earlier review from the vistors,they are all showing a desire to live in Vancouver.
Do you think the next few years will see an economic boom or bust in BC?
While Global economy was in trouble and the pace recovery is fragile Our Canadian economy has long way to go up constantly.
Results:GDP annual growth rate hit 5.0 per cent in Q4 as trade, spending, production all increased.Global bust is atleast 31 year away so one can expect Vancouverboom2 to be countinue…..
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:54 am 27
Here's an unanswerable question, a thought-experiment:
"Of the money spent to stage and attend the Olympics (by individuals, by corporations, by the city, by the province, and by the federal government), how much of it was earned/saved money, and how much of it was borrowed or tax-deducted?"
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:57 am 28
@patriotz: Value is still iterpreted. You take your stats of various cities, their rental values, and the country's future growth prospects, and maybe a hundred other stats to determine value. If it was only earnings value, then you call it "earnings value". It's not that simple. How else can you explain the so called discrepancy for the last 7 years? Why would valuations be more often off value than it is matching?
All that you're saying in your repetitive argument is that prices will eventually come down after it goes up. Who here is disputing that?
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March 1st, 2010 at 12:01 pm 29
@tim: "I know that you guys are going to shoot the messenger, but Prime Minister is on TV commenting on the Vancouver games now. He’s recognizing that the world has a renewed view of Canada, specifically BC, and more infrastructure projects will be funded to support the tourism. He’s suggesting that the success of these games will boost Canada’s impact on the world stage. The West coast is going to be “key”."
Yeah, he's gonna say things like that. This is why I dislike patriotism. It is so easily manipulated by TPTB. Harper believes all these flag-waving yahoos will translate into votes. What you are hearing is just political promises in the lead-up to a Spring election. Just BS.
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March 1st, 2010 at 12:14 pm 30
How else can you explain the so called discrepancy for the last 7 years? Why would valuations be more often off value than it is matching?
You're a bit dense aren't you……
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March 1st, 2010 at 12:28 pm 31
@DaMann: ummm we won the most gold medals in Winter Olympic games history! What more do you want exactly?
I'm not saying we did poorly, I'm just saying Own The Podium failed miserably on its stated goal:
In the grand scheme of things, I suppose it's not a big deal. But I have a problem with the whole concept of the government using taxpayer money to help people win medals so that we can feel good about ourselves.
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March 1st, 2010 at 12:35 pm 32
What are you talking about? Of course it's measurable!
Taxes will go up x percent.
User fees will go up x percent.
Sports funding will be cut by x amount.
Library and art gallery hours will be cut by x amount.
Number of teachers will be reduxed by x.
HST will cost consumers an extra x dollars.
Add it all up, you'll see what I mean.
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March 1st, 2010 at 12:41 pm 33
patriotz:
I suppose I partially agree, though that type of patriotism is far less visible to the cameras. I would say the voulenteers made some sacrifices though. Someone I know worked 13 10 hour shifts during the games! Sure they got to see a few events for free and got a jacket out of it, but it is still quite a commitment for almost no compensation.
rubberduckie:
I am so curious what happens to all of this stuff when its all over. I was thinking those thousands of mesh fence coverings would make funky curtains if done right. Sadly I think a good chunk of the stuff will end up in the trash. They shold just have a huge garage sale and see what interesting things people do with all the would-be garbage.
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March 1st, 2010 at 12:42 pm 34
@tim: tourism???? you know tourism makes for shitty low paying jobs, that's about it. What about all the people who do not work in a tourism related field? I couldn't care less about having a 4 lane highway to a (bankrupt) ski resort. If the want real jobs here they need to make this place more affordable for start ups and companies from elsewhere. Why would anyone settle here with his business (except for the ones that get tax payer subsidies
?
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March 1st, 2010 at 12:43 pm 35
@davers:
Doping test lab equipment is up for auction after the games. Local biotechs have seen lists of equipment that will be available after the games. Used lab equipment usually fetches 5-40 cents on the dollar.
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March 1st, 2010 at 1:06 pm 36
@tim: "You take your stats of various cities, their rental values, and the country’s future growth prospects, and maybe a hundred other stats to determine value."
Why make it so complex? The only 2 streams of income from a property come from 1) rents and 2) selling it to someone else for a higher price in the future. If (1) doesn't increase significantly you must rely on (2).
I've heard the complexity argument before. In the US in 2005. It turns out what gives US real estate have value these days isn't difficult to understand.
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March 1st, 2010 at 1:14 pm 37
@gorkyy: I agree that most tourism jobs are low-wage, but have to point out that Whistler/Blackcomb is not bankrupt. The resort's owner is in financial trouble, but that's because of other ill-advised investments they have made. If, and when, the company is forced to liquidate, W/B (which is the crown jewel in the company's portfolio) will quickly find a new owner.
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March 1st, 2010 at 1:15 pm 38
@davers:
That's just what they did after Expo, although of course there was a lot more to sell. The temporary buildings ended up all over the place (I think you can see some from River Road in Delta), the giant hockey stick went to Duncan, and Jim Pattison bought Expo Ernie.
I think Home Depot might be willing to pay a good price for the flaming furnace ducts, er cauldron. It would look great outside of their stores.
I have head that the medal podiums will be for sale, they would be just the thing for ReMax, Amway, Mary Kay, etc.
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March 1st, 2010 at 1:19 pm 39
@oneangryslav2: point taken. still is weird to prioritize getting tourists to a what will likely be foreigner owned resort over getting people to their work places from further out of town.
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March 1st, 2010 at 1:21 pm 40
@tim: Patriotz has covered this over and over on this blog. And I see that he's also responded to this post of yours. It really isn't that difficult to understand. (Now I see that jesse has also chimed in.)
As for your comment about why market prices are more often than not different from fundamental value at any point, well that's the nature of markets. Here's a word you should Google: equilibrium. In addition, you know that during any flight between two cities, your plane is flying off-path more than 90% of the time? But it always (absent crashes, of course) makes it to its intended destination in the end. If you know the reason, you'll better understand the nature of the self-correcting nature of markets.
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March 1st, 2010 at 1:26 pm 41
For most people I'd argue there is some value associated with the benefits of ownership (stability, pride, future potential etc.) above and beyond potential rental income.
Doesn't really matter in this market though, the price to rent ratio is clearly showing things are way out of whack, and other factors don't come close to explaining the difference.
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March 1st, 2010 at 1:41 pm 42
patriotz:
They are selling the podiums?!? I thought the whole motto of the games was "Own the Podium", if they sell it then it was all for nothing!
I doubt they would sell the furnace ducts. The cost of removing them would probably be more than they could get for them. Plus I think they would be an interesting little momento of the games, good or bad.
But what about all that little stuff? All those signs and decorations that day "2010" on them? They are really quite useless now but I bet lots of people would like to have a little something to remember the games by other than the furry little mascots. Since we all paid for the stuff I think we should get a chance to save this stuff from a landfill. Hopefully it happens, but, again, I doubt it.
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March 1st, 2010 at 1:49 pm 43
And poor little Quatchi. Never did peek out his furry little head with his other loveable friends.
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March 1st, 2010 at 1:53 pm 44
"You’d prefer to see Celine Dion over Neil Young? Wow, I feel sorry for you. Seriously"
Well, at least she doesn't have post-nasal drip.
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March 1st, 2010 at 2:05 pm 45
man, the Canucks got so lucky in the game last night, what a squeaker. Theu were outplayed ( then entire night was played in thier end)and outshot but pulled a rabbit out of the hat in the end, a win is a win is a win they say. I agree with a US newscaster that said the if CDA had lost the country would have gone into a state of funk and depression. The 7 Billion Dollar riot would have perhaps had Jimmy Chu and the Mounties reverse the taser strategy. And hey, did you see the people happy that the punk police didn't use the taser weapon once during the entire games? Gee Jimmy back to basic public service for two weeks, how does it feel. Are the batteries on the charger?
The local papers are full of crap stories about 'we are the world stories', this is crap as usual and we should have a lot of fun seeing how they try to leverage the spin now the the BS Games have folded and the bank acccount has been emptied. Yaaaaahhhhooooooooo Canada, we're fucked.
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March 1st, 2010 at 2:11 pm 46
The real international overview of the Olympics.
“It is embarrassing,” said Norbert Baier, the technical delegate of the International Biathlon Union. “Why do we have this incompetence?”
http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/news?slug=ap-sta…
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March 1st, 2010 at 2:22 pm 47
"Quatchi"
As soon as Quatchi and his sad little anime friends are consigned to the landfill the safer the world will be. Pure incarnate fluffy corporate evil those little monsters.
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March 1st, 2010 at 2:27 pm 48
The Guardian stepped away from its initial criticism but has let Vancouver have it again anyway. Why because it deserves to be smacked. This writer bites the head off the phony manipulators in the driest most poignant critique yet. I doubt that Gordon Campbells panic squad could understand the quality of the newest slap on the ass from the British paper. Its too bad we don't have this kind of intellectual journalism in Canada.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifameric…
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March 1st, 2010 at 2:37 pm 49
@oneangryslav2:
The manager (Fortress Investment Group) may not be in "financial trouble" (they have little/no skin) – although a $4 stock hardly screams rock solid – but the fund that bought Intrawest, clearly is.
When the lenders have extended a forebearance agreement, it is usually on the heels of defaults (in this case, loan repayments) that have not been cured and are on 90 days+. This is to say you really can't pay your bills at all and have not presented a plan to do so to the lenders. It is clear that FIG believes they overpaid for the asset and are unwilling to throw it a lifeline. The fund is probably underwater and insolvent.
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March 1st, 2010 at 2:43 pm 50
@T-1000: Yes, that's correct. But if anyone thinks that the Whistler/Blackcomb ski resort–on its own–is a money loser, they're sadly misinformed.
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March 1st, 2010 at 3:13 pm 51
I hate to say it but the combination of fantastic weather, positive world media attention (with the exception of the Brits), massive displays of national pride, and a series of Olympic firsts, this Olympics will have a positive impact on Vancouver.
Do not count on the bubble deflating for sometime. Many potential sellers just got a shot of adrenaline from the games, and their arrogance will remain for a long time. And just as the fickle Vancouver sentiment went from negatively to extreme positivity and support for the games almost overnight, you can count on many people following up with their indoctrination and renewed love of Vancouver to become committed buyers at all costs. The outburst of pride will galvanize the population and reaffirm the belief that Vancouver is the best place. After all, we have been telling ourselves that for 7 years, and now it was supported by a fantastic medal performance and international media coverage saying the same thing (again not the British). And previously posted, we have already had brisk sales of luxury homes in Vancouver during the Olympics.
As much as I would have liked the games to fail, the gods parted the skies, and gave us sunshine and historical victories. I think we know that the gods are now on the side of Vancouver real estate.
The real estate delusion will continue for many many more years so best to get prepared for a very long hiberation bears….
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March 1st, 2010 at 3:23 pm 52
@Purp:
But there isn't for investors, which is why prices cannot be higher in the long run than what they are willing to pay. Once they realize that appreciation is over – and it must end at some point – and rental income will not cover their expenses, they head for the exits. Which is what happens in every RE bust. Not one owner-occupier has to sell or be foreclosed to crater the market.
What you are describing is called "consumer surplus", and it is the reason why the demand curve slopes down. Most buyers are always willing to pay more than the market price, but it's the guy who isn't determines it.
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March 1st, 2010 at 3:32 pm 53
Preacher, you kidding right? Tell me which of these ratios doesn't exist: price/income; price/rent; price/sunshine & hype?
Sit back and watch what happens, you'll probably learn something.
If I could pay for things, (rent, housing, car payments, insurance) with national pride and warm fuzzies, I wouldn't visit this site for one thing. Hell, I'd probably be having brunch right now with Sir Richard Branson and Bill Gates on my private space shuttle as we head up to the space station for the weekend.
Ahh la la land, you're the warmest fuzziest land of them all.
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March 1st, 2010 at 3:37 pm 54
@Preacher:
You mean eating out and going on vacations, while the homedebtors sit in "their" houses eating KD and worrying about every potential interest rate hike? I think we can handle it.
Who's really going to be in hibernation?
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March 1st, 2010 at 4:23 pm 55
2010 visitors buy $32 million in Vancouver real estate!
link:
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/…
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March 1st, 2010 at 4:28 pm 56
Can't we just sell more red mittens to pay the bills?
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March 1st, 2010 at 4:29 pm 57
Even if the study had found that olympic games do bring measurable booms, it wouldn't mean that the same could happen here. I understand that sometimes a tourist may fall in love with a place visited and want to buy there. But for most tourists it will be a shocking discovery to find out that real estate here is worth probably sevaral times more than it is where they come from. As much as they may like Vancouver (yes, the weather was unusually beautiful), I don't think there will be even one foreign visitor to buy RE here. On the other hand, the mass exodus of temporary workers from a city which doesn't have a real economy will likely cause a surge in vacancies, even lower rents and declining values.
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March 1st, 2010 at 4:37 pm 58
58 Joe
"I don’t think there will be even one foreign visitor to buy RE here."
See #56 – "2010 visitors buy $32 million in Vancouver real estate!"
Care to eat your words….
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March 1st, 2010 at 4:59 pm 59
@welldone:
I think that article used the wrong word…
"The Games brought an international flair and level of excitement to our city…"
Should read, "level of excrement to our city"
Just sayin…
Really though, so what? It's a drop in the bucket and the more the market is boosted now the harder it will fall later.
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March 1st, 2010 at 5:03 pm 60
@Preacher:
$32 million! WOW!!!!
That's what, the equivalent of 19 West side houses?
I'm sure that'll really move a market that sells 2500 properties a month.
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March 1st, 2010 at 5:12 pm 61
No 56 – friends and fellow citizens that article is bullshit. The suites downtown in Coal Harbour and several at the Wesbrook at the University of British Columbia were being advertised overseas to Asian buyers only….not olympic visitors. The wealthy asians that purchased these homes use these residences as secondary when they visit canada but many have their children living in them and attending university. How do I know this? My client was part of the team responsible for building the tower at UBC. He told me that not one single advertisement was pushed in north america.
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March 1st, 2010 at 5:28 pm 62
@Anonymous:
That's because even here, getting someone to buy a high priced condo on leased land is stretching it.
Foreign aid. Let's build some more.
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March 1st, 2010 at 5:35 pm 63
$32M of real estate, that's it? But it was sunny, and we all felt warm fuzzies. So out of the tens of thousands of people that were here, Realtors managed to find a few suckers to sell about 20 properties… and that's a bullish sentiment? Mmkay.
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March 1st, 2010 at 5:39 pm 64
Got an anecdote for y'all: Know a couple where the hubby lost his job in construction, payments due, can't afford it, no emergency fund to pull him through. They're 20 somethings and they were living cheque to cheque with a mortgage, and now they're proper fucked.
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March 1st, 2010 at 5:46 pm 65
did you guys read this article:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-01/crosb…
“In a perfect world, we’d love to have the athletes’ signatures beside each front door.” Rennie said in an interview. “We’d love to find some sort of ‘Who’s DNA is on your floor?”
if these people run our world then we are all idiots.
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March 1st, 2010 at 5:47 pm 66
Juste pour rire…go to Bill Good's show at 10 am via the CNKW audio vault.
I'm sure every one of his callers worked for Vanoc…pumpers all. LOVED the closing ceremony. Yada yada.
At any rate, after one News segment, some loud mouth realtor (or other) actually said that someone was "…so impressed with Vancouver, they bought a condo!"
See?
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March 1st, 2010 at 5:54 pm 67
“In a perfect world, we’d love to have the athletes’ signatures beside each front door.” Rennie said in an interview. “We’d love to find some sort of ‘Who’s DNA is on your floor?”
Well since VANOC had to fly in 8500 extra condoms from TO, on top of the 100,000 they gave out in the village, odds are pretty good there is plenty of DNA on the floor (and the wall, couch, bed, etc). I bet a CSIS UV light will lead Rennie to his much desired "DNA".
Just saying…
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March 1st, 2010 at 5:56 pm 68
meant to say "CSI UV light"….lord knows our CSIS does not have that technology
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March 1st, 2010 at 6:20 pm 69
Just saw Jean Chretian trying to explain away Canadian enthusiasm. This coming from a guy who did everything he could to dismiss Canadian patriotism from the first day of his tenure to the last, including taking down Canadian flads from emabassies and government buildings. between him and Trudeau they did everything to besmirch and deride Canada in thier quest to unbalance the country with massive immigration to fill the new constituencies they had set up to control parliament. If you talk to any new immigrants they say that this is the first time they have ever been allowed to display thier happiness to be here. Chretien promoted western seperation and gave the seperatists in quebec full riegn to deny the relavance of the Canada. When Chretien allowed the referendum for seperation in Quebec and lost because of the new immigrants in Montreal (we should thank those people for not being as stupid as the Libs thought the rest of us are) he was actively TRYING to break up the country and would have joined the seperatist cry of acceeding to democracy if the vote had been yes instead of no. To listen to the Liberals is to listen to liars.
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March 1st, 2010 at 6:36 pm 70
22 mill to buy a condo here. Perhaps they did not read about the 8.8 in Chili.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:40 am 71
[...] March 2010 · Leave a Comment !(EconomicsDegree) at vancouvercondo.info 1 Mar 2010 8:24 am – “I know tons of people who want to move to BC but when they look at a) the available [...]
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March 1st, 2010 at 6:59 pm 72
@OMG:
And he even allowed separatists into his cabinet. Oops, sorry, that was Brian Mulroney.
Speaking of immigrants, who was going around a few years ago speaking to immigrant groups about the "threat" same-sex marriage would bring to their communities? Hint: not Paul Martin.
BTW I find it funny that you spell English just like Chretien speaks it.
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March 1st, 2010 at 7:05 pm 73
"Just saw Jean Chretian trying to explain away Canadian enthusiasm."
You know what's REALLY sad? The fact that we spent BILLIONS on the Olympics in order to get NOTICED like the Noxzema girls. All fo NBC's "Today Show"!
Do anyone seriously think that it MATTERS what any other nationality thinks of us?
"OOOOOh! I'm so PROUD to be a Canadian!"
As opposed to what? A Lithuanian? (Read: American)
It's interesting how so many people DEFINE themselves by what they are NOT. American, that is.
Such BS.
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March 1st, 2010 at 7:11 pm 74
@Chug a lug:
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March 1st, 2010 at 7:13 pm 75
Identity politics almost always work that way, Boombust. A group defines itself against that which it is not (what cultural theorists would describe as an "other"). For Canadians, that means the largest, nearest, national "other" – ie: the USA. It's the same for the Brits. They spent centuries defining themselves most often as "not French".
Identity politics are essentially an act of negative construction. Rarely do they work in a positive (ie: we are X, Y and Z) manner.
Right, back to RE.
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March 1st, 2010 at 7:27 pm 76
@OMG:
Well said.
Chretien was an ignorant thug. His idol was that disastrous poser Trudeau. They both had nothing but disdain for Western Canada, and they deserve to be remembered as the worst prime ministers of the modern era.
Sorry about the political rant.
Here's to a 40% reduction in RE prices by this time next year.
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March 1st, 2010 at 7:38 pm 77
@logic:
"Right, back to RE."
I agree. The Olympics is over, if you were against it, well the money's been spent, too late now. If you were for it yay, we won lots of medals. Either way there's little profit in further discussion.
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March 1st, 2010 at 7:48 pm 78
@logic:
That's not identity politics, properly speaking. Identity politics means allying yourself with others in your own society who share some inborn or familial trait with you – race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, etc. But not economic status or ideology. That's class politics. Affirmative action, for example, is based on identity politics.
The British seeing themselves as different from the French (or Quebecois from the rest of Canada) is ethnic nationalism – one society seeing itself as different from another due to ethnicity. And Canadians seeing themselves as different from Americans – a distinction based on different values (since neither are ethnic nations) – is civic nationalism.
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March 1st, 2010 at 8:11 pm 79
@Vansanity:
>>>Rennie said in an interview. “We’d love to find some sort of ‘Who’s DNA is on your floor?<<<
I'm sure Rennie was at the Village bright and early this morning going through the just vacated rooms of the mens hockey teams, collecting DNA with his tongue.
Just sayin'.
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March 1st, 2010 at 8:32 pm 80
Well the Alpine Skiers didn't do very well, no medals now for 18 years last won a bronze in 1994 games in Norway despite a generous amount of money given to Alpine Skiing by the own the podium stadium.
I hope the endownment trust given by Vanoc will be enough to keep the sliding centre in operation as theey are short on their budget by 400,000, hopefully doesn't become demolished like BIG THUNDER in the Thunder Bay and money other sports venues in Canada built for major games in Canada.
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March 1st, 2010 at 8:34 pm 81
Well the utter hypocrisy of Premier Campbell, saluting the athletes with his red mittens meanwhile he cut back dramatically support for amateur sport in BC, hope Harper doesn't do the same in his upcoming budget.
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March 1st, 2010 at 8:51 pm 82
"That’s not identity politics, properly speaking.
–
Pat, I usually let you have your way, but you are splitting hairs here. Nationalism (of all kinds) is a subset of ID politics, a term that encompasses all of which you wrote.
And what do you mean by "properly speaking?" Whose definition are you citing here?
Also, the British (or more correctly, English) – French distinction has variously been one of Language, geography, and law (and sometimes faith) over the centuries. The "ethnicity" aspect – by which I take you to mean "race" here – has more often been one of "forgetting" in the Englsih-French dichotomy due to their intertwined national bloodlines.
Other than that, yes.
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March 1st, 2010 at 9:53 pm 83
C.D. Howe Institute recommends the BOC raise interest rates beginning in July by 0.5 points per month, each and every month for 7 months.
Based on a typical $580K Vancouver mortgage over 35 years, that would amount to the mortgage payment climbing roughly $180 each and every month for 7 months. For variables the pain is immediate, for fixed the agony comes at renewal.
I don't know about you, but if the BOC follows these recommendations then I see dead people.
Lots of them.
http://www.cdhowe.org/pdf/ebrief_92.pdf
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:09 pm 84
The atmosphere in Vancouver this past two weeks was amazing. The people in this town were the ones who made this a great Olympics.
BC couldn't buy the amount of publicity it received in the past two weeks. Ratings were huge. The city was great. The city was fun.
I never bought into the idea that the Olympics would affect our real estate market. Now I am not so sure. There is a sense of optimism in the air. The future of this City and Province is going to be huge. Tourism should be strong going forward.
The economy will continue to improve and BC is going to be well positioned for the world economic recovery.
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:12 pm 85
@crabman:
Yeah, but 14 GOLD!
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:18 pm 86
@davers: I am so curious what happens to all of this stuff when its all over. I was thinking those thousands of mesh fence coverings would make funky curtains if done right.
Hello, new leaky condo "outside curtains" LOL
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:27 pm 87
@Spreading the Light:
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:28 pm 88
"There is a sense of optimism in the air. The future of this City and Province is going to be huge."
This is how we all felt during Expo '67, except it was Montreal. It was a truly and authentically magic experience. But optimism and our other "feel goods" didn't save Montreal from massive debts. The optimism lasted as long as the party, and in the case of Expo 67 the party lasted for a lot longer time. When the party was over, the part was over. Done. Finito. Time to pay the bills.
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:49 pm 89
#83 @bestplaceonmeth: I believe the Bank of Canada announces rates 8 times a year, so it's really every month and a half. I do not expect them to gradually raise rates. That's what Bernanke did, and it was stupid. He boiled the frog.
I expect a large initial jump, possibly even to 2%, and probably very little after that. It will be more like what Australia did. They will get rates into a "normal" range leave them there until the bond market throws up.
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March 1st, 2010 at 10:52 pm 90
Dave:
4 words fer ya
big party!
big hangover!
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:04 pm 91
@blueskies:
The party has just begun. The next step for this amazing place starts now.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:09 pm 92
@Dan in Calgary:
The Vancouver Olympic costs are nowhere near the same league that Montreal was. It's not comparable. A few tweaks tomorrow and before you know it, we will be in surplus again.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:10 pm 93
Canada grows 5% in Q4 means that a super boom is under way. Bears, there's only one way to go and that is up. Vancouver is magic condo making machine town where you get rich if you're smart. With the olympic boom just wrapped up now it's time for a new condo boom all over this town. If you miss out again you'll be crying.
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:21 pm 94
Re: 46, Realpaul says of Team Canada…
"Theu were outplayed ( then entire night was played in thier end)and outshot but pulled a rabbit out of the hat in the end,"
That was a ways upthread but I just wanted to highlight it as perhaps the craziest thing Realpaul has ever said on this blog – and that is a pretty high bar!!
For the record, final shot total 39-36 in favour of Canada
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March 1st, 2010 at 11:39 pm 95
Dave
You are dreaming if you think RE prices will rise because of a two week party. It was great but after a month the buzz will be gone and we will be back to the no fun city. We will probably get a boost in tourism but our overpriced RE is only attractive to the stupid FTB's that don't know any better.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 12:03 am 96
@Disbelief: And what makes you think RE prices will drop after the Olympics?
There are too many people like you trying to ruin a happy and festive mood. You're just another one of those minorities trying to use some bs as an excuse to start a riot for fun. In 1994, when the Canucks got into the Stanley Cup finals, I'm one of those hoping for a riot just to watch some action. Protesters and bears just show up to wreak havoc for fun, get on the news, and say "I'm cool, I busted some windows on Robson".
Too bad those fools got outnumbered by the rest of the Vancouverites who really wanted to go out and have a good time.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 12:07 am 97
@patriotz: Regarding hibernation, I think Scullboy is one of them, he's hibernated to Halifax and he's not a homeowner. He's not worried about rate hike yet he's the one in hibernation. How do you explain that?
How are homeowners in hibernation when their housing prices are rocketing and they're hauling in cash? I think you got it the other way around. Renters are throwing out money to the home owners making them rich. Get with the program, buy yourself a place, then rent it out. You'll eventually find out that it's a better formula to make money than bitch about them.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 12:11 am 98
Australian central bank hikes policy rate to 4%
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/australian-centr…
Stephen Harper: 'Party on Gordo!' Gordo: 'Party on Harps!'
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March 2nd, 2010 at 12:13 am 99
100 days to the international sporting event that the rest of the world cares about.
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/index.html
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March 2nd, 2010 at 12:17 am 100
You only 'haul in cash' if you sell. You can 'haul in debt' by remortgaging, but debt ain't cash.
Rates are going up and household debt levels are at record highs.
You see dead people? I see debt people!
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March 2nd, 2010 at 12:35 am 101
@oneangryslav2:
Exactly right. You can tell he's not from England by the way he writes. He's a dumb canuck, poorly educated in BC schools. That's why he has a glaring typo in his intro and he's too dumb to see it.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 12:39 am 102
@Dave: It was fun but was it because it was Vancouver or was it because of the Olympics. If the latter, one has to realize the Olympics are now over. Just go and walk around tomorrow and you'll see much of the vibe is gone. One should not confuse a two week party atmosphere with long term sustainable economic development.
Many countries would like to devalue their currency in order to make their manufacturing sectors more competitive. I say, devalue RE to make labor costs more competitive in terms of cost of living and to attract investment into BC and Canada. Yes, home owners would lose out, but I think it is a reasonable sacrifice to our next generation and given that much of the wealth in RE was not really earned.
I don't know about you, but if they were to devalue RE by 20-30%, that would be a real cause to celebrate because it would mean RE is no longer draining wealth away from our economy and making debt slaves out of our next generation.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 1:15 am 103
@Dave:
Dave, for starters can you please talk to those people and explain how it works. They will appreciate it.
http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/2010wintergame…
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March 2nd, 2010 at 1:19 am 104
#102 @observer: Devalue RE? Dream on. There is no political support for such a move. The baby boomers need house millions to retire. The current generation needs to know they didn't just piss away a lifetime of income to buy a tiny condo or townhouse. As for the next generations – screw them. They can move to Borneo or something.
We have already inflated RE beyond the anyones wildest dreams with the biggest credit bubble in 80 years. We had our chance to wind it down. We had many chances. We repeatedly hit the gas instead.
This is going to implode. It will happen shortly, as prices exceed peoples' ability to pay, with or without rising interest rates. There is really nowhere left for house prices to go except down, barring more "free" money for buyers which would in fact be borrowed by our highly indebted government.
We have ignored this problem and done exactly what the US did. Despite how that turned out, we made our bubble even larger than the American one, and in some places more acute. This will blow up, particularly in bubble areas like Vancouver, and there will be very little left of the Canadian economy when it does. This is inevitable. There are no longer any countermeasures that we can take. The consequences of our outrageously irresponsible actions can no longer be mitigated. We are cooked.
If you want to see what the future has in store for BC, have a look at this post by Mish:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/0…
Does anyone doubt that our provinces and federal government will run deficits on the order of 30% of spending? I see it as likely. And who will they raise taxes on? The baby boomers who are retiring if they're lucky? The highly indebted homeowners who are trapped by negative equity?
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March 2nd, 2010 at 1:33 am 105
" Vancouver appeared to have more morons per square foot than the Jersey Shore house. "
From an article from the Times titled: ' The Vancouver Games: A Gold in Drinking '
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,196…
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March 2nd, 2010 at 5:33 am 106
@observer:
The value of RE is the present value of its future income, i.e. market rent. This is the economic return from RE to all of its owners collectively. Thus for the price to fall to this value is not a "devaluation", but a correction – the price represents the correct value.
Home owners (as a group) do not lose out by a fall in RE prices. Owners collectively cannot gain from high RE prices, because there is nobody for them to sell their houses to as a group. Individual homeowners can only sell to other homeowners, in limited numbers. The gains of the seller are at the expense of the buyer. The only thing that is lost is the illusion of wealth. Homeowners keep paying the same monthly costs and receive the same shelter regardless of what the sale price would be if they sold.
Contract this to, for example, oil. Oil producing countries really do gain from high oil prices, because they sell oil to oil consuming countries, not to each other.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 7:24 am 107
@Anonymous: Crazy Time article, thanks for the link. Apparently no other host city comes close when it comes to public intoication.
Believe me, I'm no prude. But all the yelling and screaming and woo-wooing becomes grating. These are the fourth Olympics I've covered, and Vancouver drinks Athens, Torino and Beijing under the table. I asked a few journalists who have covered more Games than I have to rate Vancouver on the intoxication scale. Vahe Gregorian of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who has covered eight Olympics, dating back to Atlanta in 1996, agreed with my chart-topping assessment. In reference to downtown Vancouver's main strip of nightclubs, he said, "Granville Street itself is unlike anything I've seen at an Olympics." And he noted that all the drinking has led to a lot of public urinating. "I've personally witnessed about 8 to 10 guys whizzing at once along a fence half a block off the main street," he said. "It's like the infield at the Kentucky Derby."
Bonnie D. Ford, who is covering the Games for ESPN.com, has been to every Winter Olympics since 1998 in Nagano, Japan. "There's no second place," she said when asked where Vancouver ranks on the booze barometer. (In fairness, you can pretty much strike from the debate Salt Lake City, the abstemious host of the 2002 Olympics.) Ford's hotel is near Granville Street, close enough for her to hear the "Can-a-da, Can-a-da" shouts at 3 a.m. "It's been a two-week tailgate," she said. "I've covered a lot of college football, and this is like the Dante's Inferno version of tailgating."
ive been to many places where it's legal to drink beer on the street or have a bottle of wine with your lunch in a park. They seem to be able to hold their liquor better in cities where you can legally consume alchohol on city streets. Maybe if you treat people like children they're more apt to act like children.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 7:42 am 108
Ah supra's obsession continues unabated.
Since you asked, I'm not hibernating. You're so dim Supra the only way you can think to get wealthy is to do what almost everyone else does, which is rent money at an artificially low wate, purchase an asset at the height o a price bubble then rent that asset put at half the carrying cost.
Honest to God, don't the bulls seem especially dim when you put it that way?
I came out east to pursue opportunities creating wealth for myself through work. I have 2 jobs out here: I'm an IT consultant to an American bank and I'm a personal chef. American banks have near shored whole chunks of their infrastructure to the Maritimes because we are close geographically, we've had better networking infrastructure for quite come time, we speak the language natively, commercial real estate rental is dirt cheap, we have 9 universiies cranking out recent grads and the cost of living is extremely affordable.
Working as a consultant leaves me free to pursue cooking part time. This also allows me to work only on contracts that pay what I want. Instead of managing a coffee shop on pender for 11 bucks an hour I'm cooking out of my own kithen for 30 bucks an hour.
THAT is why I moved. If you can't save money bcause of circumstances, the next best thing is to diversify and protect your income streams.
Dumbass.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 8:13 am 109
@rp:
Things will not turn out as badly in Canada as in the US because we are much more export oriented than them. The loss of domestic demand will not matter as much.
The exception, of course, is BC. Shockingly, the % of provincial GDP represented by merchandise exports in BC is half that of Ontario. This province is just running on debt.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 1:22 am 110
[...] pertinent comment from Anonymous at vancouvercondo.info 1 Mar 2010 at 5:12 pm – “Friends and fellow citizens, that article is bullshit. The suites downtown in Coal [...]
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March 2nd, 2010 at 8:24 am 111
Judging from Supra Boy's previous statements seemed to suggest he's never been a landlord. Or if he is, he seemed to think that as long as the rent covers the mortgage, then he is breaking even and he waits for capital gain appreciation.
Unfortunately, landlords that think this way is not working for him or herself, but they are working "FOR" the tenants! Why, simply the fact that your time (which is aggregated in a salary) is not factored into the rental equation. Expenses are not totally factored in. You provide free labor, so really the tenants are not throwing money away, but rather money goes to employ you to ensure the rental property is habitable and utilities are functioning properly!
Unless you are in a positive cash flow situation; gross revenue from rental deducted expenses equal positive net revenue and that pays your wages for the upkeep of the property, most of the people are pretty much in a negative cash flow position. There are times that you can be in positive cash flow if you had bought the property in 3 separate years, after 82, mid-90s and early 2000s that you could truly justify being a home owner rather than a renter. Or a renter wanting to gain extra income by purchasing rental properties to diversify the asset portfolio. Those times were good for prudent investors.
In the absence of any other viable high yield investment alternatives, it is quite normal for homes to fully appreciate and keep appreciating until other factors come into play to deflate the bubble, because everybody is parking their money waiting to be deployed. The treasuries are in bubble territory too; also waiting to be deployed as well. As soon as a viable investment alternative presents itself, and it will as the signs of economy growth is surfacing, these monies will be deployed to chase the new trend. As soon as that happens, the RE bubble from the remaining countries of Australia and Canada will soon deflate and dumb money make the mass exodus towards greener pastures. The exodus will be quick perhaps for the first year or two and will afterward begin a slow and agonizing death reminiscent of the Nasdaq deflation for a decade or more.
Most of you blogger, with the fine exceptions of a few old wise veterans here (you know who you are), are young and had not experienced past bubble bursts, with exception of the dot-com bubble.
However in the end, most of the homeowners NEVER actually own their homes forever because most of you will have had socked away almost everything you have into it. Eventually, however, you can not retire without adequate cash flow even if you own your own home. You need the extract wealth out of your own home to fund your retirement and you do this with a financial institution. When you start doing that, that's no longer your home! You are then no different than a renter rich with a sizable cash flow, but he or she may have had invested it in a growing asset that could provided excellent income yield and has the option to live in any neighborhood! You, the homeowner, are stuck.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 8:38 am 112
@rp:
Things will not turn out as badly in Canada as in the US because we are much more export oriented than them. The loss of domestic demand will not matter as much.
Export in what?
Canada, like Australia, are resource dependent. The US is not. The US provides a consumer and knowledge based driven industry which can easily be exported just as well. There was a time that Mr. Garth Turner recommended on his Turner Report that we should all buy US denominated dollars and that we should buy all US investments, just because they were popular then. There was a time in the Toronto Exchange that only 2 stocks (JDS Uniphase and Nortel) were the major lifters and mining stocks were in the doldrums. You think then they are not exporting anything? Perhaps more so as the Canadian dollar then was weaker and today, our dollar is much stronger. How can we export more with a higher dollar compared to the lower US dollar?
Today, Canada and Australia are good plays; but come tomorrow, something else is better.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 8:55 am 113
@rp:
Virtually impossible, because the bond markets will not stand for it. It's one thing for Greece, which represents maybe a few % of the economy of the Euro zone, to live beyond its means. It's quite another for 100% of the CAD zone to do so. There is simply nobody out there to enable it.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 9:33 am 114
113 – correct. Prepare for slash and burn with public service today and Thursday. And it still won't be enough.
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March 2nd, 2010 at 10:00 am 115
@LordHuggington:
You might want to take a look at BC's 2009 export stats before you get all exited about our resources (which the world so desperately wants) leading us out of this depression.
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/exp/expdata.pdf
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March 2nd, 2010 at 12:54 pm 116
@Dave:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifameric…
but since you don't like the guardian…
http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/news?slug=ap-sta…
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March 2nd, 2010 at 11:08 pm 117
Supraboy(stupid name) what kind of a self respecting human being would worship a rice wagon like that.
Do you have a coffee can on the back of your rice machine. I am not a bitter renter at all. I just happen to believe that this and all other booms end in an equal bust and so will this boom. Believe me when I say that there are a lot more bulls that are suffering from nightsweats because they may have bought at the top than bears waiting for the pop.
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March 3rd, 2010 at 1:32 pm 118
I believe one of the major problems here lies in the reason or motivation behind buying real estate. Those in the business of flipping RE will soon be flipping burgers. Unfortunately, the innocent victims who are searching for a place to settle down will get sucked in and likely get into trouble. As long as people are willing to pay the price there will be no end….But…I wish to share my personal caution or warning to anyone thinking about this market. Look at the fundamentals (price per square foot, location, age of place,mtce fees, etc) and then seriously look at what you can afford in a worst case scenario. Make sure you do not drain all your liquid assets for a purchase (cash,stocks,etc). Shop around for the best rate, do not buy on impulse, compare what the previous owner paid and ask yourself. Do I really want to hand over that kind of profit in such a short timeframe?
At the end of the day its your call. I am of the opinion its better to wait it out for awhile. I believe we will have a double dip when interest rates rise HST comes into effect.
In this economic climate the KET is to position yourself for the worst case scenario. If you cannot handle this scenario then continue to save your money and wait until that opportunity arises.
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