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raising interest rates: how fast?

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The BOC is holding interest rates at a record low .25% for now, but hinting that may change soon.  BC is doing some belt tightening now that the games are over, but in the rest of Canada the economy is growing surprisingly fast.  So when do rates start going back up, and how fast should they be raised to reign in inflation?

The C.D. Howe institute is recommending that they be raised sharply for every rate announcement for the year after their conditional July commitment.  This would mean the overnight rate would move from its current .25% to 2.0% at the end of 2011.

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ks

FUNDAMENTALS where are we going??? are people still immigrating in large numbers? Has the debt people have taken on gone up? for every 100.00 on average canadian owes 145.00 And the one thing no one mentions is over the next 20 years how many people turn 65 everyone will be surprised to see that statistic. So anyone who posts up up up go to Statistics canada and look at some charts it is not pretty. Who is going to support all of this

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jesse

@MIA: "Rather than service cuts, the Province increased spending in education, health care, and on 'families.'"

Oh they did, did they? A better way to look at it is how their budget keeps up with the operating costs required to keep the status quo. Answer: it doesn't.

The property tax deferral program is the province getting into the loan business. What sort of financial situation do you have to be in to take this kind of loan? The terms are horrible and rely on property prices increasing for these families to escape.

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taylor192

@patriotized

"It’s not a party for you unless you’re inside. For everyone else, including those in Vancouver, it was just another TV event."

It is a shame you missed out on all the free venues, free events, free concerts, free shows, free fireworks, and just walking around enjoying the proud Canadian atmosphere. It was a party inside and out.

That said, I watch TV reports on the > $1.4B spent on the DTES. For the money, I'd rather watch the Olympics again.

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[…] March 2010 · Leave a Comment bestplaceonmeth at vancouvercondo.info 2 Mar 2010 at 5:31 pm – “I was listening to a spokesperson from Adecco Employment Services on CBC this […]

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trackback

[…] higher interest rates affect those margins.  Here’s some interesting math courtesy of reader bestplaceonmeth: Based on $58,000 median household income in Vancouver using ING’s “how much can I borrow?” […]

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logic

and MIA – no problem. Keep up the good work.

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logic

70 RP:

I'll be fine, but thanks for the concern. I have a very generous private pension scheme and will be able to fund my own retirement and health care (I'm retiring in a warmer country than this one).

So yes – I will still feel the same way. 🙂

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MIA

Patriotz, After watching you post on every possible subject under the sun on this blog, it is exceedingly clear that you are the eternal know it all who simply has to comment for the sake of keeping attention on yourself. You choose to dissect elements that are not even relevant to the information I posted on RE (49,53). You find a flaw with everyone's commentary or information, often splitting hairs when it serves no purpose. I provided information and details on an issue that has raised questions on the blog, namely the property tax deferral programs. I gave you insights from Minister responses and press scrums, some of which will never make it print. It is pretty clear you never get close to the political machinery, and the reasons why certain decisions are made. I will keep my information to… Read more »

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Peter

do people actually pay pst when they sell a used car in this province

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Disbelief

Patriotz
I agree with the Expo was a bigger party. The fair lasted for 5 months and was a party for all while the Olympics were very geared to Gordo and his douchebag friends along with IOC family. Today Vancouver is not a bargain like in 86 therefore we will not see RE appreciation like we did after the fair. I do think that tourism will get a boost. There are far too many deals in the US for any investor to choose Raincouver.

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Tic tac

Logic
"I don’t have kids, and have no plans to have any. Can I please stop paying for other people’s choices (to have kids) please? "
You are paying for what you spent as a kid. Didn't you go to school at some point in your infancy?

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jesse

@bestplaceonmeth: Are you sure that prior to April 19 CMHC approves you at 1.95% variable? You might want to check this is the case. I thought they approve people on 3 year fixed but correct me if I'm wrong. Post April 19th the difference would be from 3 year to 5 year, not variable to 5 year, not as big a change.

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Drachen

@rp:

"My kids will be your social safety net when you’re too old to work."

Social safety net, doctors, physiotherapists, all those things you're going to need in old age. People with Logic's attitude really piss me off, they should be paying MORE for not having kids, not less.

Try to look at the world beyond the tip of your nose Logic, there's more to everything than the contents of your own personal bubble.

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Anonymous

@bestplaceonmeth: @Dave:

I'm not saying the REBGV is being intentionally deceptive. It's equally possible they're just plain incompetent.

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Dave

@Yalie:

True… everybody knows the REBGV numbers have been cooked for years.

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rp

#54 @logic: "I don’t have kids, and have no plans to have any. Can I please stop paying for other people’s choices (to have kids) please?"

Will you still feel that way when you're 60, I wonder? My kids will be your social safety net when you're too old to work. They'll be paying higher taxes than you ever did. Please try to be a little considerate. BTW, this is not an endorsement of any crap in the budget.

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Yalie

Hmm… a 22.5 percent price increase year-over-year? That's funny, the latest Teranet data shows a mere 5.4% increase year-over-year in Vancouver. Yes, I know, the Teranet data is 2 months behind. So let's compare the latest Teranet numbers to the REBGV's numbers from 2 months ago.

December 09 year-over-year price increases in Vancouver:

Teranet: 5.4%

REBGV: 16.2%

I know who's numbers I trust.

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Chilled

@best_place_on_meth:

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X best_place_on_meth Says:

March 2nd, 2010 at 5:31 pm

I was listening to a spokesperson from Adecco Employment Services on CBC this morning, they’re the ones who hired people for the Olympics.

The shows host had to ask her several times how many people were hired who will now be out of work.

After much dodging she finally came up with a ballpark figure.

“Over 50,000″ was her answer.

+++++++++++++

No worries, they will just listen to what the Lieberals have been saying for the last decade and take up a trade.

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Patrick

BS that is the funniest thing I've ever read on this blog..

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Dave

Wow, the February numbers just came in… "the benchmark price of a detached home in Metro Vancouver, an average for the typical homes sold, hit $800,796, a 1.5-per-cent jump from January and a 22.5-per-cent increase from the same month a year ago."

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancou…

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bestplaceonmeth

@vreaa:

My pleasure, and the first interest rate hike will in effect be a whopping 2% in about 6 weeks time.

Hardly tiny.

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vreaa

@bestplaceonmeth: thanks for the math, meth.

Informative numbers.

This is why there is likely to be a 'threshold effect' with interest rates.

Price drops won't be a slow attrition; a tiny interest rate move can easily push Vancouver RE right over the edge.

Then falling prices will beget fear and more falling prices… etc, etc..

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Chilled

@best_place_on_meth:

5

X best_place_on_meth Says:

March 2nd, 2010 at 10:07 am

superdupe:

How’s that lack of land working out for Manhattan real estate prices?

They ran out of land 150 years ago.

++++++++++++

Wadda ya talking about? Last time I was in NY, they were growing huge tracks of pumkins and cranberries on urban land too!!! LOL

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[…] taylor192 at vancouvercondo.info 2 Mar 2010 1:23 pm – “I work in high tech and moved [to Vancouver] from Ottawa recently, so I can comment on Vancouver vs Ottawa: […]

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bestplaceonmeth

Some more number crunching, because math has never been more enjoyable now that interest rate hikes are imminent. Based on $58,000 median household income in Vancouver using ING's "how much can I borrow?" for 35 years (yes, 35 years – it's what all the cool kids are doing nowadays). Also assuming no other debts (ha ha) and a conservative $250 a month for property taxes or condo fees or both. Prior to April 19, qualifying at 1.95% variable rate: YOU QUALIFY FOR A MORTGAGE OF $415,270 WITH 5% DOWN! After April 19, now having to qualify at 3.89% fixed rate: YOU QUALIFY FOR A MORTGAGE OF $313,880 WITH 5% DOWN! Holy foreclosure, Batman! That's a 25% haircut off current prices! Now let's fast forward to the end of 2010, 4 successive 1/2 point interest rate hikes and you now need… Read more »

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