Real estate went up
Here’s an interesting quote from Kamloops-North Thompson MLA Terry Lake about the economic benefits of hosting the winter games:
“Already we know that real-estate in Vancouver went up shortly after the Olympics from people that had visited the area,”
Is there a word missing here? Did buildings actually elevate into the air due to some anti-gravity effect that visitors had, or are we referring to a specific aspect of the real estate market.. Prices? Interest? Sales? Listings?
Yep, one of those went up.
March 22nd, 2010 at 9:25 pm 1
First!!!!
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March 22nd, 2010 at 9:31 pm 2
Yep, it went up – up to new highs!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2pXxHW1DHs
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March 22nd, 2010 at 9:35 pm 3
3.5 billion people watched our Olympics?
Oh my god, that's so laughable.
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March 22nd, 2010 at 9:50 pm 4
Does anyone know what the current inventory is? Must be closing in on 15,000 soon…
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March 22nd, 2010 at 9:59 pm 5
MLA Terry Lake also credits the spending on the Convention Center, Sea to Sky upgrade and Canada Line with keeping the deficit in check!!
Lake also cites the construction projects like the Vancouver Convention Centre, the Sea to Sky Highway, and the Canada Line all of which created employment and will be a lasting legacy for the province.
“We have a $1.7 billion deficit,” says Lake.
“Without the kind of economic activity we have had, we would be hard pressed to limit the deficit to what it is.”
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March 22nd, 2010 at 10:02 pm 6
Terry Lake for Minister of Finance!
Good grief.
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March 22nd, 2010 at 10:16 pm 7
@Care bear: 14,240 listings currently in the REBGV area. At the rate inventory is growing we could hit 15k by end of the month.
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March 22nd, 2010 at 10:22 pm 8
where are all the idiots who said that we should watch for larry's dailies today and some kind of sales surge?
perhaps the realtors are all having clients multi-bid on the same properties, and the strength they are seeing is really in key pockets and on better than average product. And as the market internals continue to weaken, this market could crash this spring.
we could see a 10% haircut by the end of summer, before the real selloff picks up pace.
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March 22nd, 2010 at 10:39 pm 9
@me: and others,
If your life is stuck on inventory? There are millions of milk can has been listed in the supermarkets go ask the store owners if they are willing to sell you on 10% discount?
Stop making fool of yourself and do the math if calculator will ever take you back from 2010 and for your kind information next year will be slated as 2011.
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March 22nd, 2010 at 10:55 pm 10
We're right behind you kitekrissh thumbsup to you.
Since you know more about buying why don't you buy a few so we can watch and learn?
Go ahead we don't mind, no no it's fine you go first.
Us morons bow down to you, please show us how it's done and go buy one tomorrow, buy as many as you can so those inventory numbers stay down and the sale prices stay up, better yet start bidding over properties regardless of whether there is another buyer, maybe ask a family member to bid up the property you want to buy, only an idiot wouldn't do that.
Or better yet post as dave or john. at least the john shtick is funny.
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March 22nd, 2010 at 10:58 pm 11
@Inventory towards moooooon.
""m-m-m-moo cows…m-m-m-make milk…it's the o-only drink that we adore…wh-when the m-moon shines…over the cow shed…we hope the cows are makin' plenty more!"
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March 22nd, 2010 at 11:12 pm 12
UPDATE
Mar 19, 2010 = 14103
Mar 22,2010 = 14258 ***11pm
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March 22nd, 2010 at 11:50 pm 13
@Big Sam: I have just got one recently,My monthly payment would be $960 for next 5yr closed and i will recieve monthly rent of $1600 that will cover all the property tax and maintenance fee,There is still chunk of profit that will pay me to write few comments here.
So funny that disbelief think he is smart than his dad.Hey bears oppertunities always exists even in the peaks. only foolish people like bears will sit and wait for crash in decades to come.
The next downturn is 30.5 year away that would be 5% to adjust in september 2030 somewhere.
Good luck to all the trolls.
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March 22nd, 2010 at 11:58 pm 14
My two anecdotes…
Just had a friend in town from the UK who would love to live here. He watched the Olympics, loves the place, but when he heard about house prices he just laughed and laughed.
I rented a townhouse (for my friend) in Whistler which has been on sale since July. When i returned the keys, the owner told me their real estate agent just said 30 similar properties had just come on the market. They said if i wanted to rent again, feel free, because they didn't imagine they'd sell it anytime soon.
Same friend has just watched his house in the UK fall from 279k to 149k. He expects that it is worth about 110k (4 x median income) but his wife is still living in denialville.
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March 22nd, 2010 at 11:59 pm 15
OK, three anecdotes…
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:01 am 16
@Best place on meth:
Apparently that figure includes people who just glanced at the TV. It would even count someone who saw the Olympics on a TV in Futureshop.
That 3.5bn figure is simply preposterous. Only Bill Good would believe that.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:10 am 17
This is how inventory is calculated
R E B G V Mar 22, 2010
Bowen Island 90
Burnaby East 138
Burnaby North 624
Burnaby South 604
Coquitlam 931
Islands-Van. & Gulf 249
Ladner 135
Maple Ridge 862
New Westminster 528
North Vancouver 802
Out of Town 84
Pitt Meadows 184
Port Coquitlam 421
Port Moody 359
Richmond 1514
Squamish 483
Sunshine Coast 959
Tsawwassen 164
Vancouver East 1184
Vancouver West 2625
West Vancouver 605
Whistler 713
Total 14258
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:13 am 18
Ok, Dr. Know. The ball is in your court. Which of these numbers is wrong?
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March 23rd, 2010 at 4:14 am 19
@bcubbins:
He is technically correct, as capital spending is "off the books" and does not show up in deficit calculations. In other words the government borrows a pile of money off the books, spends it on projects, and it reduces the deficit – while the projects are being built – because revenue from income and sales taxes, which is on the books, increases.
But when the projects are completed this goes into reverse, as the interest which has to be paid on the borrowed money is included in the deficit, but there are no longer any income and sales taxes from those employed building the projects. The plan (or should I say hope), of course, is that taxes from economic spinoffs will pick up the slack.
BTW a big thank you to Mr. Lake for confirming, straight from the government benches, that Gordo's goal all along has been to turn BC into a RE-based Ponzi economy.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 5:29 am 20
Patriotz, you're being too clever by half. Here's what Lake goes on to say:
"Without the kind of economic activity we have had, we would be hard pressed to limit the deficit to what it is.”
If limiting the deficit was his goal he wouldn't want to add a shed load of debt servicing down the road.
I shudder to think about the prospects for BC voters. On one had a Liberal government that's been in power so long that it's clearly gotten senile, and on the other hand a gaggle of left-wing geese who honk approvingly every time someone raises taxes, goes on strike or proposes a new entitlement.
Joy.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:39 am 21
@chip:
Factually incorrect, as the NDP are opposed to both the BC carbon tax and HST.
Both of which I support BTW.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:54 am 22
How long till we see something in the MSM about this listings explosion? I'm guessing April 1st.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:05 am 23
Listings explode every spring, and it's too much of a wash at this point to be newsworthy. Anemic sales will be reported if they don't follow through, but only in a few months time. Or listings over 20k, etc.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:52 am 24
"Vancouver West 2625"
This beleive to be an area where almost 6000 people movein every year add another 275 listings here and the Olympics blip of listings will be peaked.If average day in the market to sell a unit is at 45 days this will prove to be the hottest summer ever to turn down average 45 days into 25 days.There is a higher speculation that flood of buyers will be looking for more listings in this area but only 2000 bulls will come forward to accept the gold medals on the podium.I believe most of bulls will sit back to enjoy anniversary of their five year long lower interest rates,They will spend their time buying more of Kesler and Sidney Crosby then later on Lionel Messi,David Beckham,Ronaldeno,Luka Podolski,and Villans etc. will join the party.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:06 am 25
VHB 18
I don't know which numbers are right or wrong. I just posted a factual statement where Chipman acknowledged his area as the complete REBGV, and his numbers did not match up with Inventory's. Chipman is a known and accountable business, with a transparent and verifiable business behind him (no offense to Inventory as he may be the same). I believe that the REBGV numbers at the end of the month will clarify whose numbers stand.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:45 am 26
Kite! This weekend my grocer offered me 25% off on my can of milk! He had a coupon for $1 off a jug of milk! OMG and you said it could never happen, I can't believe I've been taking financial advice from you!
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:55 am 27
@Robert Rennie III: You can get an even better deal on a leaky can of milk, but the special assesments can add up quick.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 9:15 am 28
Why people listen what I say? I am retard. Joke is for you!
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March 23rd, 2010 at 9:29 am 29
@Robert Rennie III: Oh that's why you were feeling disco in your tummy,In this case your grocer got 75% of profit out of this deal and also saved his time and labour because he don't have to walk upto garbage container.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 9:34 am 30
Kite, answer one question:
Why do you waste time posting gibberish? Shouldn't you be out buying condos for your self and selling them for your clients?
Who cares what we say on this blog. RE is so rock solid and never goes down so what we say makes no difference.
Your posts are making me think that RE prices are so fragile that you are affraid that a little blog can contribte to a market collapse.
But, hey, we know that RE always goes up. So be happy and buy condos. Please ignore this blog.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 10:04 am 31
@rp:
Listing did NOT explode last spring as we can see on the total listings chart here. In fact they went down ALL SPRING.
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
But they did explode in spring of 2008 and wasn't that summer and fall a doozy?
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March 23rd, 2010 at 10:27 am 32
Vancouver boom2 continues to outpace recovery in developed countries
most Canadian regions will remain sellers' markets, as strong demand and rising prices continue.Reason why "VRENGD".
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March 23rd, 2010 at 10:28 am 33
@rp:
Gain in inventory through March:
2006: +480
2007: +674
2008: +1503
2009: +51
2010: +1862 (through March 22)
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March 23rd, 2010 at 11:27 am 34
Don't feed the trolls. There's a reason they keep changing their names.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:01 pm 35
Very simple concept bears. Real estate in Vancouver always go up over long term. Sometimes there's blips and it goes down but over the long term it always goes up. And guess what bears? The trend for rents is the same trend. So if you rent forever you will retire to a nice crackshack on east hastings. Sound good?
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:04 pm 36
Sobering read … unfortunately it all makes sense unlike the price of the current real estate market which defies any logic. Unmanagable finacial burden is just a modern day version of slavery… government endorsed
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009/10/22/BubbleWillBu…
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:05 pm 37
@upwardslopecontinues:
Don't forget, when you own, property taxes always go up as do maintenance costs. Owning is free either!
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:16 pm 38
err, 35, no. I'm retiring somewhere warm, most likely in the south pacific (already have a secondary investment nest-egg in my country of choice). but thanks for the concern.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:35 pm 39
So there is no confusion, the link below is a sobering read.
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009/10/22/BubbleWillBu…
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:42 pm 40
My little anecdote. I'm originally from Calgary, been here almost 2 years. Our company has offered myself, and two other people (from other cities here temporarily as well) to either transfer here, or in my case become a permanent employee. Only one person accepted. Why? The other fellow took one look at house prices, decided it would cost him about $40K a year to rent something comparable to what he owns in Ontario. There's no way I'm moving here. Sorry, but I want to stay mobile. This town doesn't have the economy of even Calgary (I mean a real economy….not trading houses). The only person to stay was a young engineer who wanted the Vancouver lifestyle. As soon as she moved here, she rushed out and bought what I imagine is about a $1/2 million condo.
The two of us who decided not to move here, based our decision on at least partly the high cost of housing.
I'll never understand why people think high house prices are a good thing. Personally I think they are a bad thing, but it seems like all our political leaders think otherwise.
KK
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:53 pm 41
Actually if you look for market reports not written by real estate boards, realtors, banks or any other institution that would be in conflict of interest or have an invested interest promoting the market you can find many other great sources of valuable information.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 12:59 pm 42
@Sfrank:
Its more sharecropping than outright slavery.
Another difference is that there is always bankruptcy to get out of RE serfdom.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 1:11 pm 43
@ SD92129:
Both have no appeal to me thanks.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 1:17 pm 44
#33 @VHB: That's quite a nice data point, and I agree with the call for a crash, but I'd rather watch months of inventory and sell to list.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 1:54 pm 45
@Krazy Kanuk: Yes you're in a different market segment. To each their own. Waiting for BMW's to drop their prices might make one wait a long time.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 2:20 pm 46
Kite,
You are referring to some soccer (football) stars, though it is not easy to recognize their names as you are mistyping greatly. Do you truly believe that they are going to relocate here? To play on a Swangard stadium? In Burnaby? During daytime only? In front of 10000 spectators, some of them standing?
Give me a break…
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March 23rd, 2010 at 2:23 pm 47
@Krazy Kanuk:
Yes, why are high housing prices considered a good thing? I think it mainly has to do with the large percentage of our population who will be retiring shortly (the boomers). They have all been jumping for joy at the thought of cashing in on their houses in the next few years-there goes those retirement worries! It must seem fantastic to them that all they had to do to become "rich" is do what everyone their age did years ago-buy a house!
However, I don't think many of them stop to think that maybe the housing prices hurt future generations. No one stops to think that their 17 year old grandchild will one day have to suck it up and take on $600k of debt just to "own" a house, and also have $30k in university debt, oh and did I mention their salary is only $40k per year? That's exactly why this thing is so unsustainable, there's too much debt floating around and one day rates will go up and creditors will come knocking. Then maybe the boomers will realize that the road to wealth cannot not paved on others' debt.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 3:25 pm 48
Kite to the moon,
Read this and think very hard:
—————————–
The LA Times. “Brenda Duchemin and her husband, Mohammad Ashraf (have) gone through foreclosures on two homes and are in danger of losing a third. Duchemin and Ashraf say they are anything but flippers. Had not both their health and the economy taken bad turns, they say, their finances would have been able to support their real estate investments.”
“The couple bought their Diamond Bar house for $550,000 in 2006, hoping to finance the purchase by selling their town home in Brea — a sale that never materialized, they say, because of the housing crash. The year before, they’d also bought a $340,000 home in Las Vegas as a retirement property, which they rented to a tenant until last year. At the time of the purchases, their only sources of income were workers’ compensation insurance payments and Social Security, but that wasn’t a problem for the lender.”
“They informed Washington Mutual in March 2008 that they were in trouble and asked for a modification on the Diamond Bar home, but tried to pay the mortgages on all three of their houses, missing a payment here, a payment there. They eventually lost the Brea town house and Las Vegas home to foreclosure, and both properties went up for auction last month. Duchemin and Ashraf say they are doing everything they can to keep their Diamond Bar house. If they are forced to move, the two don’t know where they’ll come up with a deposit for a new place — filing for bankruptcy has ruined their credit.”
“‘We can’t afford to stay in our home, but we can’t afford to move,’ Duchemin said.”
“‘It wasn’t unusual to allow folks to buy not only two homes but three, four or five,’ said Sean O’Toole, founder of data-tracking firm ForeclosureRadar. Because people thought the price of real estate would keep climbing, O’Toole said, they figured that the more homes they bought, the more they’d earn eventually.”
“‘In a lot of cases, you had folks in this gold rush mentality: ‘Real estate is going up, the more houses I buy, the more money I’ll make.’”
From http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html
Now excuse me if I puke….
Regards
arit
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March 23rd, 2010 at 3:55 pm 49
A friend of mine who has real estate business called to let me know there are townhouses selling in Surrey at a reduced price. His friend had booked multiple units at a pre-sale last year and is now hard pressed to off-load it. I was not interested at all but just prolonged conversation to get a feel of what is happening out there. It was really shocking when he then said that I do not need to send a penny in down-payment even with the new rules. I don't the details but it sounded like showing higher apprised value for securing a mortgage that will cover full reduced purchase price. Are these kinds of frauds common?
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March 23rd, 2010 at 3:55 pm 50
@pricedoutfornow: You are only setting yourself up to confirm this bias. Clearly homes are bought and sold on the margin by those that can afford to do so. There is lots of better priced alternatives farther afield. One can't argue the price is wrong as a postdictor. Predict the price movements for a change (like all the bears have for the past 7 years). Clearly either one is willing to hold onto their illusions that prices are wrong or they should consider themselves locked into a retrospective distortion and that their assessments are wrong. Don't let pride get in the way.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 3:56 pm 51
@arit quotes article:
Huh?
You don't support an investment – an investment supports you. You know – paying you money?
Talk about being unclear of the concept.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 4:20 pm 52
"His friend had booked multiple units at a pre-sale last year and is now hard pressed to off-load it."
Greedy prick. I hope he loses his shirt and then some.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 4:22 pm 53
@KK #44
I'm 31yo and new to Vancouver (since 2008) from Ottawa. Most of the friends I've made are in a similar spot:
- ~30yo
- have above average jobs
- want to settle down and start families soon
- moved here cause of the lifestyle and Olympics
- moved from places where housing was 1/2 the price, yet salaries about the same (or higher)
Our discussions are not about when we are buying homes here. They are about when we will move back east. We were raised in large homes with lots of disposable income. We cannot imagine starting a family in a closet with little cash to spare.
The catch-22 is that if the housing market collapses here, our above average jobs may go with it.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 4:36 pm 54
@Anonymous: #45
As I remember clearly last year, pretty much all car companies were slashing their prices because nobody wanted to buy a car anymore.
Besides, comparing a BMW to a place to live is asinine. Nobody actually needs a luxury car.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 4:43 pm 55
@patriotz:
"Factually incorrect, as the NDP are opposed to both the BC carbon tax and HST."
My, you're a joyless scold. I'm sure they would be opposed to a tax on muffins at the union BBQ too.
And for what it's worth, they may oppose the carbon tax but a big plank in their policy is a 'greener' economy that includes higher taxes for the oil and gas sector and a cap and trade system.
Yeah, it's that cap and trade system that failed abysmally in Europe with tens of billions of euros in fraud, but for the NDP this isn't a bug, it's probably a feature because, you know, moral posturing trumps economic fundamentals each and every time.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 4:53 pm 56
“Factually incorrect, as the NDP are opposed to both the BC carbon tax and HST.”
The Carbon Tax was opposed by the NDP solely on political strategy grounds, not on principle. Carol James and her advisors read the political winds, determined public angst on the issue, and saw the opportunity to create a wedge issue. They knew opposition conflicted with their green platform, but they were hoping the public would not see that through their angst ridden eyes. That being said, the public angst fizzled and they are now on record as opposing the tax.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 5:27 pm 57
22
"How long till we see something in the MSM about this listings explosion? I’m guessing April 1st."
********
Nope… you will see commentary six months after the PRICES have dropped, as only then is it safe for the media to report news that won't offend their revenue generators because a surge in listings and a drop in prices is common knowledge at that point
That is if the history of reporting on the 2008 price correction is any indication…
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March 23rd, 2010 at 5:47 pm 58
@Best place on meth:
You forgot the most important aspects:
1. Cars – all of them – are cheaper to own than to rent, because the companies who rent out cars aren't stupid. Thus you don't get anyone spouting nonsense about an "owner's premium" for cars.
2. Cars can be shipped all over the planet. Houses can't. So the supply is almost perfectly elastic on a local basis.
3. Nobody expects to be able to sell a car (I'm talking about a car you buy to drive, not a collectible) for more than they paid for it.
Thus no bubbles in cars. Well except for some rare model-dependent manias.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:06 pm 59
http://www2.canada.com/nanaimodailynews/news/stor…
I thought the real-a-turds said it keeps going up, up, up??
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:10 pm 60
Stronger sales today as the April 19 deadline approached.
But any day where total listings go up by triple digits is still a victory for the bears.
And that's EVERY day lately.
Vancouver East & West*
New Listings – 107
Back On Market Listings – 1
Price Changes – 47
Sold Listings – 62
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 325
Back On Market Listings – 7
Price Changes – 120
Sold Listings – 218
*Attached & Detached @ 03/23/2010 17:47
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:21 pm 61
53
X taylor192 Says:
March 23rd, 2010 at 4:22 pm
…………. if the housing market collapses here, our above average jobs may go with it.
++++++++++==
What's an "above average job" in Vancouver? Saying "mild or dark roast" over "would you like fries with that"??
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:30 pm 62
Write something bearish on this site, score is positive. Write something bullish, score is negative. Welcome to the Behavorial Finance term, "Confirmation Bias."
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:33 pm 63
#47 @pricedoutfornow: I think you misunderstand. The road to boomer wealth absolutely has been based on other peoples' debt. They are in their years of maximum income and wealth, and they're collectively putting the squeeze on younger generations. They'll do it again as they retire and completely drain the system.
I have a young family and I seriously doubt there will be anything for them. We are getting a nice preview from the US of what happens when governments have absolutely no money. They simply close schools, disband the police, etc. Meanwhile there are tons of administrators and what not who will or do make far more from their pensions than I can from working. I expect all resources to be devoted to the baby boomer generation and the median tax rate to approach 75% before it all simply collapses. The poor bastards who bought a house will be trapped. I'll keep my liquidity and mobility and get the hell out of here at the first whiff of serious trouble.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:39 pm 64
Also, please note I am not blaming the baby boomers for everything. But demographics rule all. Their parents lived quite a bit longer than anyone expected, there are very large numbers of boomers, half of them didn't save anything although I don't expect my generation to do better, and we have had 30 years of falling interest rates and increasingly large bubbles. Put it all together and it's a catastrofuck.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:43 pm 65
@crashcow:
Let me quote post #35 for you:
" Very simple concept bears. Real estate in Vancouver always go up over long term. Sometimes there’s blips and it goes down but over the long term it always goes up. And guess what bears? The trend for rents is the same trend. So if you rent forever you will retire to a nice crackshack on east hastings. Sound good?
Tell me, why would something like this get positive scores? It's not bears' fault most of the "bulls" here are retards…
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:50 pm 66
crashcow Says:
Write something bearish on this site, score is positive. Write something bullish, score is negative. Welcome to the Behavorial Finance term, “Confirmation Bias.”
C'mon, you can do better than that. Plenty of people have been following this housing/banking debacle since 2005, around the beginning of VHB's blog. We've given this more than a cursory glance. 'Comfirmation Bias' my ass.
Fundamentals will always trump wishful thinking. Always.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:52 pm 67
BestMeth #60 "Stronger sales today as the April 19 deadline approached" and if all the buyers were not sub-prime buyers they wouldn't care about April 19th!
But they do and in the same breath say "no sub-prime in Canada" FFF'n unbelievable!
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:02 pm 68
Mar 19, 2010 = 14103
Mar 22,2010 = 14258
Mar 23, 2010 = 14312
Van West
Mar 2005 1918
Mar 2006 1674
Mar 2007 1822
Mar 2008 2329
Mar 2009 2974
Mar 2010 2638 ** Mar 23
Van East
Mar 2005 1275
Mar 2006 989
Mar 2007 1179
Mar 2008 1202
Mar 2009 1327
Mar 2010 1187 ** Mar 23
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:03 pm 69
@crashcow:
Have you read the incoherent, semi-literate garbage being posted by the cheerleaders?
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:09 pm 70
@crashcow: Yes, I not understand the bears hear vote me always down. They have confirmation bias! VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN!
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:14 pm 71
@rp:
Yep, you're completely right. I think the boomers, for the most part have had good lives (anyone care to disagree?) I am in a position where I see a lot of people's financial information and I gotta tell you, when I see people who are taking in $30k+ per year pensions for oh, THIRTY YEARS, you have to wonder what will be left for us.
The answer? Nothing.Or not much.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:20 pm 72
Chilled
"What’s an “above average job” in Vancouver? Saying “mild or dark roast” over “would you like fries with that”??"
Very funny. Laughing out loud on that one.
Maybe we should come up with a new scale, my friend:
Average Job: Owns only one presale.
Above Average Job: Owns two presales.
Amazing Job: I buy three my huzba buy three.
….
Engineer with 12 years experience: Pricedout.
BTW: POPE, I am having trouble selecting text and copy-pasting since the addition of the perma-forum monolith. Anyone else or it's only my browser?
Regards
arit
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:59 pm 73
@Kite towards moon:
Serious question here.
Are you ESL or special ed?
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:15 pm 74
Agree with arit – left sidebar has altered cut and paste.
I should know!
(Thanks for all the anecdotes, Pope & Posters).
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:24 pm 75
Bill Good for BC Minister of Propaganda
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:31 pm 76
http://www.torontosun.com/money/2010/03/23/133313…
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:32 pm 77
@arit & vreaa: The sidebar issue should be fixed now, let me know if it's still giving you trouble. The div box was too wide and it was covering the edge of the comments. I've started a suggestion-box thread in the forum for issues like these and any suggestions or site specific comments anyone may have.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:42 pm 78
Thank you Pope, it's fine now!
Regards
arit
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:54 pm 79
@Anonymous: And this is the exact attitude I'm talking about. "Your just jealous that you can't afford to live in the best place on earth". "just swallow that bitter pill now, in 10 years when prices are double, you will be glad you did". "All the rich Asians".
I remember in Calgary with $147 oil. "But we have oil!"
KK
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March 23rd, 2010 at 9:02 pm 80
inventory, thanks – your daily updates are greatly appreciated!
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March 23rd, 2010 at 9:06 pm 81
@taylor192: I've a few years on you (I'm 37), but if I could give you a piece of advice….
Enjoy your time while you are here. Don't buy a house/condo/shack. Live the "downtown lifestyle". There's plenty of people that rent….no big deal.
It really is a great city, and the rest of BC is beautiful. Keep working and gain experience, and if the unfortunate happens and you lose your job, then you are at least mobile.
Oh…did I mention? DON'T BUY A HOUSE!!!
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March 23rd, 2010 at 9:18 pm 82
@Partisan Spectator:I was refering to their Jersies,accessories,fans,and environment include live telecast in the pubs and noise on the street.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 9:49 pm 83
@VHB: Your data refered to gain in inventory is not doing any justice to inventory because you did not include the fact that numbers of homes during that period those were added to housing sector will make big difference.It doesn't matter how the immigration numbers fair in term of year over year,however,Number of buyers from all sources specially increased family size due to any source will contribute to produce more buyers.
Here is just an estimate to compare numbers of homes vs your posted data.First figure on left will show Gain in inventory through March and second figure on right will show "NHU" refered to new units those numbers of housing units were being added to housing sector.
2006: L+480 NHU+50,000
2007: L+674 NHU+50,000
2008: L+1503 NHU+30,000
2009: L+51 NHU+20,000
2010: +1862 (through March 22)NHU+5,000
According to this comparison between new housing unit and gain in inventory,the Kite come to conclusiion as following….
1.Market observation rates in Vancouver are rock solid.
2.Listings rebound is very minor to observe units over and over again.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 10:19 pm 84
Kite 9:49 – please provide a link to your NHU+50,000 data source. All you are doing without sourcing is handwaving. Handwaving is a clear sign that someone doesn't have a factual base to an argument, and instead wants to create uncertainty as to the true result.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 10:27 pm 85
@Animal Spirit: Why don't you ask VHB,Mohican,Mickey Finney,Bdk and Strataman.Almost every single bear on this and other forum is a witness in reporting number of unit that suppose to complete in perticular year.If you like to hand over this duty to me then also give me sometime to troll through hardcore data and source.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 10:45 pm 86
me Says:
inventory, thanks – your daily updates are greatly appreciated!
'Inventory' is like some RE guardian angel. So glad somebody has access to some hard numbers.
We, in Canada, are really behind the times, we don't have any real data. In the US, there's tons of information about any house you want to buy … and the next door neighbour's sales history. Here, we have to sign up on some government site and pay for it.
Real estate information shouldn't be treated like some national secret. It's only a house.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 10:48 pm 87
Kite "on the" Moon is just showing anxiety symptoms. And I don't blame him/her.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 11:12 pm 88
House prices to hit record: Scotiabank
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
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March 23rd, 2010 at 11:22 pm 89
pricedoutfornow Says:
@rp:
Yep, you’re completely right. I think the boomers, for the most part have had good lives (anyone care to disagree?) I am in a position where I see a lot of people’s financial information and I gotta tell you, when I see people who are taking in $30k+ per year pensions for oh, THIRTY YEARS, you have to wonder what will be left for us.
The answer? Nothing.Or not much.
.
.
pricedoutfor now
… normally I agree with everything you post. I now realize you are younger than me and you figure that every financial stab in your heart is being carried out by your elders.
I would take two giant steps back, mother-may-I, and look at the world in which you live.
Evidently, it's OK that taxpayers will bail out chartered banks to the tune of billions of dollars for their gambling debts. You have no qualms about indebting your life, your childrens' lives, and their childrens' lives. Servitude to banksters is alright … just don't let those bitchin seniors have a pension.
I'd direct my wrath at those that created the $$$ melt down.
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March 23rd, 2010 at 6:49 pm 90
[...] March 2010 · Leave a Comment Ulsterman at vancouvercondo.info 22 Mar 2010 11:58 pm [...]
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:20 pm 91
[...] Krazy Kanuk at vancouvercondo.info 23 Mar 2010 12:42 pm – [...]
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:34 pm 92
[...] March 2010 · Leave a Comment AlmostPefect at vancouvercondo.info 23 Mar 2010 3:55 pm [...]
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March 23rd, 2010 at 8:04 pm 93
[...] rp at vancouvercondo.info 23 mar 2010 6:33 pm – [...]
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March 24th, 2010 at 5:08 am 94
Good morning sunshines! Another day for bull to make money. When number for bulls you never like. But I give you good bull number so all can make profit. Remember most important fact for all: VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN
ps other kite, you very funny!
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:01 am 95
@pricedoutfornow:
You don't understand where those pensions are coming from.
Suppose I want to save for my retirement, so I start buying stocks and bonds. Those stocks pay me dividends and interest which I use to buy more stocks and bonds, until I retire. Then I start spending the dividends and interest to live on, and perhaps sell off some of the capital if I feel I can do so without running down my assets during my lifetime.
Is my pension money coming from someone else? Unless you think like Karl Marx, no. That's the return on the capital which I have bought from my savings.
That is the way pension plans work – whether they be RRSP's, employer pension plans, or CPP. Contributions are used to buy capital which provide income for pensions.
The very reason younger people will have jobs is because the older generation has bought capital with their retirement savings.
The exceptions are OAS and GIS which are funded from general revenue. And if you know anyone who lives on CPP/OAS/GIS alone, you'll know that's hardly enough to live on.
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:22 am 96
"Unless you think like Karl Marx"
Hmmm, let me see. Didn't Marx write that the basic structure of a society determines its superstructure?
Sounds just like CKNW!
You take your Remax ads, see, and then you add in some mouthpieces like Levy, Campbell and Bill Good…
So, Marx was right all along.
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:53 am 97
@Inventory:
Any chance you could start posting the fraser valley numbers as well? I'm really curious to see how the sales and listins compare to greater vancouver.
Thanks for posting the numbers for us!
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March 24th, 2010 at 7:13 am 98
@Animal Spirit: This following link is not an apple to apple as it shows historical chart through the years that i did not mention on the comparison at #87,however,as you know that construction boom was in a ground breaking condition then bears blog pick up those numbers and start throwing those numbers on the forums repeatedly NEW HOUSING COMPLETIONS IN GREATER VANCOUVER, 1997 – 2006
This next link can be found on this site "vci wiki" but these numbers belongs to only perticular areas specially Downtown Vancouver and these supply is being refered to CONDO SUPPLY.
If anybody have access to Mohican's lost site then we can successfully drag those numbers into this forum,I hope he did not dispose those links or posts so far.
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March 24th, 2010 at 7:56 am 99
Most bears left on this site are just the losers who wouldn't be able to afford a vancouver condo if there were an 80% drop.
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March 24th, 2010 at 8:10 am 100
@upwardslopecontinues: I suspect the only ones that couldn't afford an 80% drop are recent buyers who are now 'priced in forever!'.
But don't be so negative, there's no way condo prices will drop by 80%. I'm sure they won't fall more than 55% over all.
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March 24th, 2010 at 8:44 am 101
upwardslopeblahblah
Most (read = all) bears in this blog would not buy a condo in Vancouver even if there was an 80% drop.
arit would not take a Vancouver new-cardboard-leaky-shoebox condo if it was given to him for free.
See? Sometimes we do agree!!!
Regards
arit
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:05 am 102
@upwardslopecontinues:
Oh we can afford to live in them, so can a lot of other people. We just rent them for a fair price, while the owner loses money month after month after month.
Drip, drip, drip.
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:08 am 103
Lol – even Kite over Moon has accurately pointed out the complete decimation of new housing units coming onto the market. And you all vote down a factual assessment, even if it is by a moron.
Last year, everyone was cheering the almost daily news of condo units that were unable to complete. And these year, that decline in new units helped drive prices up, and have screwed bears over with their hopes of oversupply. Lol – who is laughing and cheering now! I think only Dave said careful what you wish for…
The absence of oversupply of new units is a topic that is never covered now…hhmmmmm….I wonder why?
And Larry's numbers looking much bullish…see all the sold signs around town…watch the dailies this weekend because lots of sales last week
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:21 am 104
No, no, the pensions to which I'm referring are not the CPP/OAS, which pay peanuts. The ones that concern me, and should concern us as taxpayers are the public sector pensions. I'm sure when they were created years ago, it was never expected that retirees would work for 30 years, then draw on the pension for ANOTHER 30. How could that possibly be sustainable? You can argue capital returns etc will take care of it, but returns haven't been so great in the last ten years. And I worry (along with many others) that the government pension funds will eventually dip into the general revenue of the government to fund them, ie, us as taxpayers. This seems to be popping up as an issue in the US-as pointed out by Mish now and then-as municipalities find they can't pay. So what then? CBC did a story on this awhile ago and it seems like the public is becoming increasingly aware (and upset!) of the growing gap between public and private pensions. Private pensions can go bankrupt, but the public sector plans seem to have a Plan B-get the taxpayer to pay.
An issue to watch in the coming years.
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:24 am 105
Oh look, the banks are aggressively lowering their interest rates..
Looks like there are more bullets in the ol' gun chamber to keep the party going
But I forgot, according to the bears there is nothing that can stop a crash from happening…no more bullets
Lets's review
- the CMHC new rules have been watered down recently by Flaherty, so they will have little impact
- despite inflation increase, the BOC is looking to change its inflation target upward, negating the need for an increase in rates
- new builds are anemic, as developers learned their lesson last year, so no chance of oversupply
- banks are dropping rates to help homeowners – who cares about savers
- america has kept rates low
- cdn dollar soaring, so it does not make sense to increase rates without crushing the recovery
- increasing sell list ratios daily
Good thing you are cheering on so called rising inventory….no 15k party sorry bears and no crash this spring
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:29 am 106
@Anonymous:
I am curious about your first statement: in which way have the CMHC rule changes been watered down by Flaherty? Could you provide details, evidence, links?
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:34 am 107
106
see garth's march 21st post for the flaherty 180 spin
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:38 am 108
I see CREA will be taking their chances in court with the competition bureau. They know full well that without a monoploization of their data there is no way in hell they can charge the obscene commissions and that the agents gravy train days are numbered.
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:44 am 109
@pricedoutfornow:
Once upon a time I worked for a public sector employer. I had to put 5% of my gross salary into the pension plan (I think they matched another 5%). Note that these contributions reduce the amount that the employee can put in his own RRSP. I left the job before my pension was vested and I got my own 5% back (not theirs) – which was part of the down payment for my first house.
Public sector pensions are part of the contracted compensation for the job.
Municipal pensions are handled completely differently in Canada than in the US. They are managed at the provincial level. This does mean that they are a Crown obligation and cannot be relieved by a municipal bankruptcy, but note that municipal pensions are funded by capital, not current expenditures.
http://www.pensionsbc.ca/portal/page/portal/pen_c…
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:47 am 110
@patriotz:
One more thing I forget to add – health insurance costs for pre-65 retirees, and to a lesser extent supplemental insurance for those over 65 (Medicare doesn't cover everything) are a very large part of the costs of defined benefit pension plans, both public and private sector, in the US. Not so here.
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March 24th, 2010 at 10:15 am 111
Bears you keep saying you are open to other opinions but you always vote down any bull post almost immediately. It is quite possible that prices will continue to remain stable or rise over the long term and possibly forever. That's reality and it's something you refuse to accept. You've been calling for a crash for years and years and it hasn't happened. It's entirely possible it won't happen. Have you thought about what you will do if it doesn't?
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March 24th, 2010 at 10:23 am 112
@upwardslopecontinues:
Yes. Keep renting.
If you own an asset and rent it out for less than ownership costs, you are transferring your wealth to the renter. Eventually the renters will own everything and the owners nothing.
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March 24th, 2010 at 10:29 am 113
@upwardslopecontinues:
…
Have you thought about what you will do if it does?
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March 24th, 2010 at 10:37 am 114
Realtard industry is fighting back with more advertising on whore TV. The pitch is 'buy now before something happens ' and they go on to list a half dozen scary things that could happen if you don't buy today. The media in Vancshit is entirely laughable.
Carney says 'Inflation is up more than anticapated' Gee I guess when you eat in the Parlimentary cafe you don't have to buy food eh?
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.h…
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March 24th, 2010 at 10:39 am 115
"Have you thought about what you will do if it doesn’t?"
Keep renting a 3bdr townhouse for 1060 CAD/month in Richmond. Less headache…
I might keep renting even if prices DO drop. I am hearing too many horror stories from owners about these cardboard "houses". Where I come from houses are made out of brick.
Regards
arit
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March 24th, 2010 at 10:45 am 116
@Anonymous:
Provide link please! Don't know what you mean.
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March 24th, 2010 at 10:53 am 117
Yalie
That is a great point and the simple answer is no. The logical solution is that something has to give whether prices, rent , wages. Those are the facts and the most likely scenario is that prices will go down. Let's face it this place ain't that great. I guess if you are house poor as many are you aren't able to travel you might think this is paradise. Bottom line it's overvalued waaaay overvalued for a frozen rainforest.
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:11 am 118
If you guys actually believe that your rent will stay the same forever you are complete fools.
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:20 am 119
"If you guys actually believe that your rent will stay the same forever you are complete fools. "
Well, according to UBC (follow the links on the side bar of this site), real rents in Vanocuver have been decreasing for the last decade.
Vancouver rents always go down!
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:38 am 120
#117 you are right.
My rent just went down 30% and could have gone down more if I wasn't such a nice guy.
The Landlord starting by asking if we could "renew at last years rate" a quick scan on craigslist and crosby pm and I showed him 10 comparable units available right now for $400 less.
It is now possible to get a 4-8 year old 1+den (684-710) for $1350 whereas a year ago they were gong for $1500-1700 (melville)
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:38 am 121
@KK #85
I had no plans to buy when I moved here, and no plans now.
I as a software engineer I need to stay mobile, the job market is not strong enough here.
I'm renting in Kits for 30% less than owning (more than the equity I'd be paying down on a mortgage), and watching rent prices drop in my area as inventory increased over the last 6 months. I will negotiate my rent lower when my lease is up, or start looking for a place I can negotiate lower.
The lifestyle is great here as long as you can live near the lifestyle. If I had to live in Surrey or Richmond, even NW, Coq, or PoCo, I would rather move back to Ottawa. For the same money I could live near the Ottawa river or Rideau canal and enjoy a similar lifestyle rather than be stuck in the burbs away from everything.
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:44 am 122
Bears you know that broke uncle who rents a basement suite in Surrey while you were growing up? He was a real estate bear in the 1960s. He's still waiting for the Vancouver market to tank all these years later.As for the fantasy stories of the oh so generous landlords offering 30% rent discounts and the luxury appartment rentals on false creek we are not fooled.
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:47 am 123
@upwardslopecontinues:
If you don't think it will crash, then you probably haven't studied much economic history. But, in the incredibly unlikely event that Van RE just keeps going up forever… I will rent until I decide whether to move to Seattle, Portland, San Diego, San Fran or LA. Dual citizenship has it's advantages!
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:50 am 124
@upwardslopecontinues:
s for the fantasy stories of the oh so generous landlords offering 30% rent discounts and the luxury appartment rentals on false creek we are not fooled
Who are "we"???
It is mostly you that I see posting garbage here…
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March 24th, 2010 at 12:02 pm 125
@arit: This has worried me for years – I'm frankly too terrified to buy an apartment ('scuse me, a condo) as a principal residence for exactly this reason. The construction standards in the past 8 years have probably been worse than they were prior to the leaky condo disaster. The homes likely haven't been much better. I can see buying something built in the 60's or 70's, maybe, after some serious inspections.
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March 24th, 2010 at 12:12 pm 126
@Peter: Is this the only way for you to get through your miserable day? Make up completely ridiculus stories?
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March 24th, 2010 at 12:18 pm 127
Hahah – I see no bears wanted to tackle the inventory issue or host of variables against them in posts 103 and 105.
Nothing to say when faced with the facts eh?
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March 24th, 2010 at 12:30 pm 128
@Stupid Bull #127
Listings are still outpacing sales, I do not see why you're cheerleading.
We only need to look to Japan's high unemployment to see the effect of keeping interest rates low for a long time. If unemployment stays high we don't need to worry about people qualifying for low rates, we need to worry about them having jobs to afford a house at all.
Our recovery has been jobless so far. Canada is currently a safe haven for money, not a place to invest it and create jobs.
America is keeping rates low cause people are still losing jobs and housing keeps going down. This is not good for Canadian business.
You may be correct about the facts, yet are terrible at analyzing the long term impacts of them. There's more to our economy than housing.
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March 24th, 2010 at 12:37 pm 129
@VRENGD:I don't think that slogan will ever apply on Vancouver rental market.In the economic spin any tenant who like to downsize himself to save money from highend will most likely to pay $300 extra to lower end Owners on otherside any rich tenant in the lowerend market will be happy paying $200 extra to upgrade himself.
This is how the market rents move around in Vancouver.
Highest unit sales=Low or stable rents:In this situation most of the tenants are actually buying a place to live that will decrease the demand of rental units.
Low or stagnant unit sales=Higher rents:In this case most of the tenant would like to stay on rent and most of other people will choose to rent a place as well include most recent sellers.
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March 24th, 2010 at 12:39 pm 130
the olympics will bring thousand of Chinese buyers and it is like giving away;Chinese power is invincible.
Thank all those friendly Chinese who have been supporting Van RE for many decades and Van homeowners are so grateful.
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March 24th, 2010 at 12:41 pm 131
"As for the fantasy stories of the oh so generous landlords offering 30% rent discounts and the luxury appartment rentals on false creek we are not fooled."
Funny that you mention it. I've posted this before, but I rent a 1200 SF two bed two bath waterfront Apt on False Creek and the Landlord gave me a discount of 20% on the asking rent, which was also 20% less than what the previous tennant was paying.
Similar units in my building have sold for $1,000,000 (plus or minus $50k). I rent it for $1800. Oh, I am such a fool!
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March 24th, 2010 at 1:01 pm 132
@taylor192:
A local high-tech company that I used to work for for over 10 years is one of the few that actually make something, market it and sell it, mostly to the US. The "soaring" loonie and the trouble down south has put such a strain on them, that for the first time since 1986 they will be laying off a seizable portion of their workforce. This is not a fantasy story and it illustrates the truuth about the so called "recovery"…
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March 24th, 2010 at 1:14 pm 133
Carney just announced that rates will rise sooner, and higher than originally anticipated.
Can anyone say apocalypse?
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March 24th, 2010 at 1:22 pm 134
134 Care Bear
He announced they COULD rise sooner than expected…he never said that they would rise higher than anticipated
Please try to paint a correct picture
And these guys have been saying things like this for some time
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March 24th, 2010 at 1:27 pm 135
EB
There is another option: Wait until prices make sense, buy a doomed shack, erase it and build something ourselves according to our quality standards.
Regards
arit
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March 24th, 2010 at 1:34 pm 136
@ Not Much of a name
Not much of a betting man myself, but I would on this.
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March 24th, 2010 at 1:36 pm 137
way to defend your statements when you get called out for misrepresenting the information….
seems bears like to paint their own pictures just like the bulls
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March 24th, 2010 at 2:24 pm 138
Maybe you all should learn a little efficient markets. People who buy or choose not buy believe the current market prices are incorrect. The bears don't buy because the price is too high, the bull buy because the price is too low. However, there is a third group, and those are the ones who are also buying because to them the prices are right.
It's completely disingenuous to say that people buying today are hoping for big capital gains in the future. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_i…
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March 24th, 2010 at 3:00 pm 139
@Eugene Fama:
How about those who have been terrorized into believing that if they won't buy now, they will be priced out forever? Which group do they belong to?
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March 24th, 2010 at 3:17 pm 140
What's with all the bitter, super-defensive bulls on this thread?
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March 24th, 2010 at 3:28 pm 141
@VRENGD: They know the end is near…
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March 24th, 2010 at 3:46 pm 142
@Anonymous: Wow, you are dumb…
> Oh look, the banks are aggressively lowering their interest rates..
Temporary. Squeezing the last drops, the banks know the party is over soon. The spread between 5yr mortgage and 5yr bond rates is higher than usual, giving the banks wiggle room, only because the BOC rate is at EMERGENCY LEVELS.
> the CMHC new rules have been watered down recently by Flaherty, so they will have little impact
What, the clarification on the 5yr rate? Minor, besides, the other changes are signification, including the drop from 80% to 50% claim of rental income, especially for "accidental landlord" Vancouver.
> despite inflation increase, the BOC is looking to change its inflation target upward, negating the need for an increase in rates
Bullshit. No way will they do that. Suicide.
> new builds are anemic, as developers learned their lesson last year, so no chance of oversupply
Look at BC Stats. Almost all the job growth in BC in the last 10 years is in construction. If construction collapses, jobs and RE goes with it.
> america has kept rates low
USA and Canada have different issues. USA looks more likely to experience deflation.
"It is absolutely not necessary to have the same monetary policy at the same time in (the US and Canada)" – Mark Carney
> cdn dollar soaring, so it does not make sense to increase rates without crushing the recovery
CAN$ already has interest rate increase priced in, you moron. If the BOC changed it's mind now it would be taken by the market that all the stats the govt has been putting out about a recovery are wrong, and hammer our markets.
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March 24th, 2010 at 3:48 pm 143
Posted TODAY:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/784634…
OTTAWA—Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney hinted today that it might be necessary for the central bank to drive up borrowing costs sooner than expected in an effort to cool inflation.
“The bank has an unwavering commitment to price stability,” he said in a speech to the Ottawa Economics Association. “The single most direct contribution that monetary policy can make to sound economic performance is to provide Canadians with confidence that their money will retain its purchasing power.
“That means keeping inflation low, stable and predictable,” Carney added.
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March 24th, 2010 at 3:49 pm 144
@VRENGD: What’s with all the bitter, super-defensive bulls on this thread?
I smell blood in the air…….
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March 24th, 2010 at 3:52 pm 145
@Eugene Fama:
Ooh, I love that story!
One is too high, one is too low, but one is JUUUST RIGHT.
What's the name of that tale again?
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March 24th, 2010 at 3:56 pm 146
@Kite towards moon: LOL stop work order… Love the new reduced, foreclosed tags, Pope.
Low or stagnant unit sales=Higher rents:In this case most of the tenant would like to stay on rent and most of other people will choose to rent a place as well include most recent sellers.
Umm, no. Vancouver RE was stagnant/declining from 1995 to 2001. See any spikes in rent?
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/RentIndex/van-…
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March 24th, 2010 at 4:02 pm 147
That whole "stagnant unit sales = higher rents" thing is really working out well in the U.S.
Not to mention they're building jack shit down there and still have 10 million homes sitting vacant.
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March 24th, 2010 at 4:06 pm 148
Just for fun, try a craigslist search for "reduced" on the Vancouver RE/rental section, and notice that the vast majority are furnished.
Looks like the genius RE moguls who bought a bunch of furniture for their Olympic rentals are now discovering that furnished condos aren't in nearly as much demand as they expected..
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March 24th, 2010 at 4:50 pm 149
This is from the link posted at #80. Read the entire article.
Scotiabank says that the RE boom is all but over. They also say get ready for a decade of flat or declining prices.
Here are some key quotes:
"We’ve come to the end of the real estate boom…"
"Real estate will no longer be the go-to method of making or saving money"
"Prices, if they don’t decline, will at least stabilize"
Enjoy, bulls.
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March 24th, 2010 at 4:56 pm 150
"Inventory", we are anxiously waiting for data for 24th of March. don't disappoint us
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March 24th, 2010 at 5:02 pm 151
@Starving Artist:I believe that immigration and migration policies were too tight that time for example:A family class application use to take more than 7-10yr now it takes only three year.Spouses application use to take 3 years now it takes 0-6 months.Bussiness class use to take 3-5 yr now it takes nothing. if applicant got $500,000 in his pocket just catch the flight within weeks or open up any small or big bussiness for your relative he or she can fly within snaps.There was not much to offer to students and the requirements were tough like any course that does not exist in the parent country those students were allowed here but now you just pay the double,triple fee compare to regional student and pick up any course, they could be here.Basically our housing system and immigration system had improve overtime and Vancouver city has been repeatedly named one of the best city on planet.So the supply and demand for any product is just a mouse click for immigration officers.They can hold someone back when we don't need and they can release someone immidiately when ever we need more.Immigration speed is depend on employment situation of the city that way they pick up applications regarding what it should be.
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March 24th, 2010 at 5:10 pm 152
@Best place on meth: They also have millions of unit of over supply(pending homes)How many do we have here in Vancouver?
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March 24th, 2010 at 5:17 pm 153
It's about time he got off his /// and started doing something…his policies have been stealing from Senior Citizen's meagre savings with sub inflationary returns on their GICs, all the while stuffing the pockets of greedy RE agents. Great monetary policy Mark…housing for young families (I remind you Mark, that they are loyal patriots…not offshore parachuters) in Canadian urban centres is even more unaffordable.
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March 24th, 2010 at 5:35 pm 154
@Kite towards moon: I believe that immigration and migration policies were too tight that time
That's why you're wrong all the time, you believe stuff instead of actually researching it.
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/Population/pop…
As you can see, reality is exactly the opposite of what you "believe".
You think investors with "500,000 in his pocket" are stupid enough to invest in Vancouver at record valuations in a global recession with tightening credit, instead of all the bargains in the USA and elsewhere (which if not at the bottom, are clearly close to returning to fundamentals)? That's hilarious.
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March 24th, 2010 at 5:45 pm 155
Bears you know that broke uncle who rents a basement suite in Surrey while you were growing up? He was a real estate bear in the 1960s. He’s still waiting for the Vancouver market to tank all these years later.
No, he bought a house in 1983 and a second in 1998. Today he's selling. And looks like a freakin genius doing it.
If you don’t think it will crash, then you probably haven’t studied much economic history. But, in the incredibly unlikely event that Van RE just keeps going up forever… I will rent until I decide whether to move to Seattle, Portland, San Diego, San Fran or LA. Dual citizenship has it’s advantages!
If it does keep going up then Vancouver Real Estate will have become a financial perpetual motion machine. The whole world will buy and sell VAN-RE ETFs, earning a nice 25%/year (or more!!!!!!) on this wonderful cash-generating system which "never go down".
And if you can't see why that's impossible I have a pre-sale at ginger to sell you.
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:01 pm 156
"A family class application use to take more than 7-10yr now it takes only three year.Spouses application use to take 3 years now it takes 0-6 months.Bussiness class use to take 3-5 yr now it takes nothing. if applicant got $500,000"
Not necessarily a good development. The actual percentage of people with skills immigrating to Canada is just 18%. You often see a higher number cited but that's only because the government defines skilled workers as the worker AND his immediate family.
And last time I looked more than half of recent immigrants live below the poverty line, it takes about 14 years for an immigrant to reach median income and the average age of an immigrant is higher than that of a Canadian citizen.
Immigration in general is a positive for countries like Canada, but our immigration policy is not.
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:05 pm 157
@Listings towards moon:
Our numbers are heading up on all fronts
Listings – way up
Rental vacancies – way up
Retail/office vacancies – way up
Don't worry, we may lag behind the US but we'll get there.
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:27 pm 158
@Starving Artist:You can see your own graph it is clearly showing that during decline in sales in 1981 the rents spike afterwards towards moon and that action is being repeated after 1991 and after 2001.Please note:Sales declines happen first to spike the rents.
Metro Vancouver CMA
Population in 2006 2,116,581
Population in 2001 1,986,965
2001 to 2006 population change 6.5 %
BC
2006 4,113,487
2001 3,907,738
Population change 5.3%
Number of units build up during 2001-2006=85,000 estimated
Number of units build up during 1990-2000=60,000 estimated
You can see with more increased supply most of tenants are moving out of rental units and buying their own units during this period.You can also see while rents are in stable conditions housing prices spikes in other years that i did not mention in this post.Housing price spikes upward when demand is going out of rental units and entering into buying units.
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:35 pm 159
You people are really stupid if you actually believe rents have gone down in this city in the last 10 years!!!! Sure maybe old crappy appartment building rent that CMHC stats are based on could have gone down adjusted for inflation but that's not the false creek condo you bears all claim to live in now is it? So keep it coming bears. Tell us all about your wild fantasies of landlords falling all over themselves to give you big rent discounts! It's truly hilarious what it takes to make you losers feel important!
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:41 pm 160
When do the 200 square foot condos go on sale, I can't wait to own a piece of Vancouver!
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:44 pm 161
@Best place on meth:Supply over built means there are lots of new housing units those are still in the store and are pending to sell in USA.Inventory numbers you had purposed are belongs to resale housing market.Rental units are being left behind by recent buyers, decline in sales during september to jan 2011 will fill the left over units with forth coming tenants.New housing stats are constantly declining month over month even in case, if stat ever increased over last month. they will remain lower in this decade compare to last decade.An DJ from developers association will act like immigration officer here.
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:48 pm 162
I think "Kite Towards Moon" is really "Supraboy" after getting punched in the mouth. This really screws up the voice recognition software.
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March 24th, 2010 at 6:53 pm 163
@wealthylandlord:
Tell us about your fantasy of being wealthy.
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March 24th, 2010 at 7:01 pm 164
@WealthySlumlord #160
It is not the basement apartments and apartment buildings that are adjusting rent down – it is the opposite – the condo owners are reducing their rent.
Why? Cause the average person who owns a principal residence and a rental unit cannot afford to have their rental unit sit empty for a couple months costing them $1800/mn. They are so over-extended with 2 properties that they have no savings, and it is better to rent it for less than risk it sitting for a few months.
As a renter it is a great time to take advantage of condo owner landlords.
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March 24th, 2010 at 7:10 pm 165
Dailies – List || Sold
Vancouver East & West*
New Listings – 87
Back On Market Listings – 0
Price Changes – 35
Sold Listings – 73
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 268
Back On Market Listings – 3
Price Changes – 98
Sold Listings – 221
1+1=2 and kite + kite=Kites
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March 24th, 2010 at 7:21 pm 166
@Kite towards moon: You can see your own graph it is clearly showing that during decline in sales in 1981 the rents spike afterwards towards moon and that action is being repeated after 1991 and after 2001
Stupid me, I thought you had the intelligence to read a graph.
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/RentIndex/van-…
Anyway, enjoy bankruptcy! Anyone as dumb as you should not be given a credit card let along a mortgage!
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March 24th, 2010 at 7:53 pm 167
I would have been excited if net listings were higher today, but at least we're still going up.
I hate that I care, that I want to own my own house.
But I hate overpaying more.
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March 24th, 2010 at 8:03 pm 168
Kite toward Moon, fyi, the Moon is at a finite distance from Earth: you will not be able to always go up, up, up.
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March 24th, 2010 at 8:04 pm 169
166 is not me.
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March 24th, 2010 at 1:05 pm 170
[...] VRENGD at vancouvercondo.info 24 Mar 2010 12:41 pm – [...]
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March 24th, 2010 at 8:11 pm 171
Canadians fret over mortgage rates, prices
More Canadians are looking to enter the housing market ahead of higher interest rates and home prices that are expected to arrive later this year, two surveys showed Wednesday.
More than two-thirds of Canadians expect mortgage rates to rise over the next year, with about the same number of mortgage holders concerned about higher rates, a Royal Bank of Canada annual homeownership survey showed.
But the survey, conducted by Ipsos Reid, also showed three-quarters of homeowners believe preparation is key to handling upcoming changes such as higher mortgage rates.
The survey showed six in 10 mortgage holders say they have taken advantage of current low rates to pay off more principal.
It also revealed that 18 per cent of homeowners say they have made a lump sum payment on their mortgage and 16 per cent have doubled up payments to reduce the principal.
Meanwhile, as many as one-third indicate that talk of rising house prices and higher interest rates has influenced their buying decisions, according to a Bank of Montreal survey conducted by Harris-Decima.
“There's definitely a sense of urgency among home buyers,” said Lynne Kilpatrick, senior vice-president of personal banking at BMO.
The same survey found 71 per cent of current and future homeowners think house prices are too high. It also found about 33 per cent of respondents complained they have lost sleep due to the stress of trying to buy a new home.
On Tuesday, Bank of Nova Scotia forecast in its real estate trends report that home sales are expected to rise 10 per cent to 510,000 this year, while average prices are expected to jump 8 per cent to a record $345,000.
Like most economists' expectations, Scotiabank said the housing market in the spring should see a flurry of activity, particularly ahead of new sales tax regimes in Ontario and British Columbia and tighter qualifying criteria for insured mortgages.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
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March 24th, 2010 at 8:15 pm 172
While in states …
' B. of A. tackles taboo of principal forgiveness '
Since the mortgage crisis hit in 2007, U.S. banks have tried many strategies to hold back the tidal wave of foreclosures. But one thing the industry has mostly avoided is cutting the principal owed on troubled home loans……
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/b-of-a-tackles-t…
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March 24th, 2010 at 8:39 pm 173
@Kite towards moon:
BC Population Data from BCStats:
[bold]YEAR: Population: Households: Housing Starts:[/bold]
1991: 3,373K …. 1,280K ….. n/a
2001: 4,076K …. 1,593K ….. 275K (since 1991)
2006: 4,243K …. 1,677K ….. 152K (since 2001)
2009: 4,455K …. 1,778K …… 90K (since 2006).
What are some numbers that we can extract from this bare data?
[bold]1991-2001:[/bold]
Population rose by 70K per year, and 27K units were built per year, which implies 2.6 people per housing unit. A little more than Vancouver, but that's about the norm for the province. So we can conclude that population growth roughly matched the amount of construction. Household growth was a little higher than construction, but within a reasonable range.
[bold]2001-2006:[/bold]
Population rose by 33K per year, and 30K of housing units were started each year. Huh, that implies 1.1 people per housing unit, which implies that there was lots of surplus housing constructed. Household formation suggests only 17K of households were "formed this year, which implies that *half* of the housing units built weren't occupied.
[bold]2006-2009:[/bold]
Population rose by 70K per year (1990s growth levels!), and 30K of housing units were started each year. That's about 2.3 people per dwelling, which is about normal, if a touch on the low side. Household formation was 30K per year, which matches the level of construction, so that's about right.
Can we conclude anything from the above data? To me, it looks like construction matched population growth and household formation in the 1990s, suggesting that construction and growth were balanced. From 2001 to 2006, there was massive overconstruction going on (mainly due to low population growth). Since 2006, construction and population growth have been balanced.
Since 1991, unit construction has been fairly flat– sure there have been some strong years and some weak years, but overall the rate of construction has been constant for each of the multi-year chunks that I've picked. The biggest aberration was in the 2001-2006 period, where population growth was abysmal, and so there was a lot more construction going on than we actually needed.
Some questions:
Have the imbalances been wrung out of the system?
How will prices (rising/stable/falling) play into this?
Note: I'll cross-post this up on Housing Analysis (Mohican's blog) so that it doesn't get lost in the clutter…
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March 24th, 2010 at 8:55 pm 174
I have noticed that the Bears on this blog try to suppport their arguments with facts and references etc.., while the Bulls just say things like:
"Rents only go up!"
"RE in Vancouver only goes up!"
"UP UP UP !!!!!"
Bulls, try supporting your arguments and it will go a lot further. Most of the Bears here seem to quite well educated, so if you come up with some REAL suppporting evidence, we will likely listen. But I suspect you cannot.
Also try being a little less nasty please. Hard to listen when you are being such shitheads…
Sheesh.
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:02 pm 175
@wealthylandlord: I have friends who really are, unlike yourself I suspect, wealthy landlords through generations of property ownership and collection of cashflowing assets in this city. And I can tell you this – they are most definitely not bothering to post scathing messages on this site !
Get a life. This is a discussion forum, not a place for you to rant about how great your are. You sound like a nutbar.
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:27 pm 176
Look at Larry's dailies…I told you stupid bears.
I said the sell-list ratios were slowly becoming bullish.
Look around – tons of for sale signs.
The spring buying season has just started in earnest!
Lol…
Poor bears – you just don't get it. After 8 years of contant gains adn 8 years of being told we are the best place on earth, the mentality of buying is engrained. Nothing will stop that – not a doubling in unemployment, not the worst financial crisis ever, not the decline in new condo developments…nothing.
I said it before you bears jinxed yourselves! You did the happy dance before anything could happen. You screwed yourselves in 2008, and you screwed yourselves this year.
All your bad karma has come back to screw you over. Try hoping for price increases, because it seems everything you know, you want, and you hope for does the opposite.
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:30 pm 177
GB
They are probably not buying anything right now either. The smart money has been in for a long while or out already. Only fools are buying now.
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:56 pm 178
Mar 23, 2010 = 14312
Mar 24, 2010 = 14322
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March 24th, 2010 at 9:58 pm 179
@Dr. Blow(hard): Go ahead, doc. Go out and buy a Van RE 'investment'. Why not go 'all-in' since you are so sure? Talk is cheap, let's see some action!
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March 24th, 2010 at 10:43 pm 180
Columbus building = Luxury apartment in Yaletown on the water.
1600sqft 3 br apartment, bought in 2006 for 1.2mil
700/month strata, 6000/year tax.
Total monthly cost to carry this investment for the owner assuming 5% mortage (the historical average) = about $9000
I rent it for $3000. She rented it to me for that amount last year when I refused to pay her asking price of $3500.
So yes, I rent for 33% of what it would cost to own. And that is not mentioning the recent assessment.
This scenario repeats itself many times over in this city.
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March 24th, 2010 at 10:45 pm 181
@M-:I don't know where to start because in first figure,population growth shows 103,000 gain and housing starts shows 275k. am i missing something?.Where did you get this 30,000 units? I beg your pardon "M" if you want to review your data please do that and also provide those 30 k units through link or just post them together by year.
till then i will try posting this response.
Housing starts:I believe Housing Starts are not just made of new units but other issue's like change to floor plans on the old house,and minor reno's with permits are also included in the starts. so in realty, starts does not convert into all new units.If some how we can find the missing link from 2007-2010 we will be able to align it with link at post #98.
Have the imbalances been wrung out of the system?
We don't have upto date numbers available that's mean we are unaware of the systems,Media that know this kind of system will never combined it together.We can only get a small piece of information in installments.
How will prices (rising/stable/falling) play into this?
Because of inappropriate data it will we hard to answer but through economics and buyers behaviour i can say when acceleration in prices slow down a bit then potential buyers postpone their buying decisions in hope to get it cheap.If sellers do not find any problem in the conditions around city they will hold the listing prices and throw it back on buyers.This act of seller will surprise the buyers again then buyers will look at the problem in and around the city. if there is nothing to bargain they will accept sellers price.This act of buyers and sellers will change the inflection point into positive territory.
Conclusions:In normal conditions buyers and sellers have a control on prices. if they have a city like vancouver they will ignore any supply that is available in the market because speculation will make them cross the bridge.There are three events in the history when sales were stagnant any other time Van r.e. is in normal conditions with sales and prices are constantly progressive.
I would be able to answer more once you make the numbers more clear,Thanks.
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:08 pm 182
I don't know if anyone read an article that was written in February in the National Post about how the market should heat up even more because of declining real estate commissions…
The economist from Scotia does not seem to understand supply and demand. Anyone else read that article? Anyways, I wrote about it today because I thought it was interesting and ridiculous…
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:30 pm 183
@M-: Ok in my understanding you were trying to pick up total variation and trying to split those numbers into numbers of year but then there are housing starts on right those are going down so again it confuse me.Housing starts doesn't work that way they always form an uneven line y/o/y to adjust with population,demand,and supply,Buyers and sellers behaviour is not a guranteed action for developers to speculate on it.here is link from post #98 http://www.metrovancouver.org/planning/developmen…
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:33 pm 184
@VRENGD:
What a fancy story made up by self-deluding basement bear who in fact doesn't even own a brick.
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:39 pm 185
@arit: you are a liar
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March 24th, 2010 at 11:55 pm 186
http://www.chineseinvancouver.ca/2009/11/forecast… one more link installment of housing starts for entire bc.
I am going to bed moon will take care of rest.
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March 25th, 2010 at 1:36 am 187
Eugene Fama,
In order to have a true efficient market you have to have perfect liquidity… Real estate is about as far as you can get from that. As well true efficient markets don't exist by definition; the stock market or currency market is probably the closest to that though.
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March 25th, 2010 at 3:33 am 188
@Anonymous: What? You can't believe the rent? One of my co-workers just found a nice 2 bedroom Kits apartment for only $1125. It even has a little yard for his DOG. LOL good for him. And I have a pet-friendly 3 bedroom Coquitlam duplex for $1200. I'm gonna have to renegotiate my rent.
Scream LIAR all you want, but there are people in this city who don't pay crippling amounts for their housing.
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March 25th, 2010 at 4:39 am 189
@Anonymous:
Higher interest rates and home prices? That makes as much sense as expecting both the Canucks and the Flames to win the Stanley Cup this year.
If interest rates are going up, prices must go down.
Buy now before prices go down! Don't wait!
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March 25th, 2010 at 5:38 am 190
My idiotic posts sure are getting old, aren't they?
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March 25th, 2010 at 6:56 am 191
@Kite towards moon 5:38am:Old is what i was trying to show on that old link, there are some projected housing starts from bcrea for 2008,2009, and 2010.
2008-34,321
2009-14,400
2010-21,000
This housing starts link is for entire bc and other link that shows number of actual completions for Vancouver cma creat uneven line year over year.so we can not divide total number of completions into number of year.If divide them into number of year then starts are not going to be consistent with demand for housing units in perticular year.
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March 25th, 2010 at 7:01 am 192
@Kite to the moon:
Hi Kite, I'll post my source links over a few posts, to avoid them being getting stuck in moderation.
Population:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/pop/BCPop.a…
My methodology: took pop @ 2001, and subtracted pop @ 1991 to get an aggregate growth, then divided by 10 for a rough average annual growth.
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March 25th, 2010 at 7:02 am 193
Next link to household growth, same methodology:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/pop/dynamic…
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March 25th, 2010 at 7:03 am 194
Next link to housing starts:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/dd/handout/HSTA…
Methodology: sum up a decade's worth of starts, and divide by 10 for a rough average annual.
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March 25th, 2010 at 7:06 am 195
Housing starts does NOT include renovations/alterations to an existing structure, and it also does not include vacation cottages and the like.
Declan found this link and posted it on Mohican's blog:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64199/64199…
Page 13 shows the CMHC methodology for housing starts.
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March 25th, 2010 at 7:12 am 196
@Kite towards moon: Just to note: the CIV article shows actual numbers only for 2008. The 2009 and 2010 figures are forecasts.
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March 25th, 2010 at 8:23 am 197
to 185 Anonymous,
Et tu: Nicknames are free. Please select one before you insult me, as I do not want to offend all anonymous cowards with my reponse.
Regards
arit
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March 25th, 2010 at 9:20 am 198
Yes "M" I think we are saying things over and over because of broken links between population,starts,BC,and Vancouver Cma.What happend in most of case,we find it surprising data to impress our friends.I also like to say thanks for finding all those links it is good to fill up eyes but changes nothing.
The best conclusion is Intelligence:Inteligence between buyers,sellers,mortgage companies,developers,Governments,and immigration policy has been poised to remain in best position.
Housing prices are poised to pop up or remain constant progressive so Government can make money from rich and transfer it to other people through employment,welfare,and health care.
If housing prices does not get intelligence behind it most of people will rent a place this process will fall on Governments of the Capitalism world.If Government have no source of income how would they provide you shelters from their own pocket.
If you are looking for alternate answer please re read #181,#183 and #191.
Thanks.
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March 25th, 2010 at 9:41 am 199
Kite: You question M's numbers…he's kind enough to provide you with the data…and you respond with this crap?
I–for one–will now vote down every single thing you post.
Type away…because you're only talking to yourself.
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March 25th, 2010 at 2:36 pm 200
@M-: Wasn't there a small housing correction around 1991. If so, the start point of your analysis would have an initial overhang of inventory so if the rest of the analysis is correct and your conclusion is that supply and demand has been held in balance, then we should have as much oversupply as there was during the 1991 correction. My suspicion is that there is more (I did a similar calculation a while and seemed to conclude there was an overhang even not taking into account the oversupply in the 1991 correction).
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March 25th, 2010 at 4:47 pm 201
@Woodenhorse: There is no other answer to his question the series of actual completion is missing from the string.Playing with his proposed data is like playing in tennis court where one side is Vancouver and otherside is bc.
Where would you beat your head?
I say housing starts does not convert into apple to apple and you can not sketch same picture year over year.
Do you think inventory is hiding in the tiffin box?
There is nothing that is not sold,The last unsold project was beasley, it has gone baby gone.
I–for one–will now vote down every single thing you post.
Go vote down comment #9
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March 25th, 2010 at 5:01 pm 202
170 is not me.
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