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Real estate went up

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Here’s an interesting quote from Kamloops-North Thompson MLA Terry Lake about the economic benefits of hosting the winter games:

“Already we know that real-estate in Vancouver went up shortly after the Olympics from people that had visited the area,”

Is there a word missing here?  Did buildings actually elevate into the air due to some anti-gravity effect that visitors had, or are we referring to a specific aspect of the real estate market..  Prices? Interest? Sales? Listings?

Yep, one of those went up.

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VRENGD

170 is not me.

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Kite towards moon

@Woodenhorse: There is no other answer to his question the series of actual completion is missing from the string.Playing with his proposed data is like playing in tennis court where one side is Vancouver and otherside is bc.

Where would you beat your head?

I say housing starts does not convert into apple to apple and you can not sketch same picture year over year.

Do you think inventory is hiding in the tiffin box?

There is nothing that is not sold,The last unsold project was beasley, it has gone baby gone.

I–for one–will now vote down every single thing you post.

Go vote down comment #9

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observer

@M-: Wasn't there a small housing correction around 1991. If so, the start point of your analysis would have an initial overhang of inventory so if the rest of the analysis is correct and your conclusion is that supply and demand has been held in balance, then we should have as much oversupply as there was during the 1991 correction. My suspicion is that there is more (I did a similar calculation a while and seemed to conclude there was an overhang even not taking into account the oversupply in the 1991 correction).

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Woodenhorse

Kite: You question M's numbers…he's kind enough to provide you with the data…and you respond with this crap?

I–for one–will now vote down every single thing you post.

Type away…because you're only talking to yourself.

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Kite towards moon

Yes "M" I think we are saying things over and over because of broken links between population,starts,BC,and Vancouver Cma.What happend in most of case,we find it surprising data to impress our friends.I also like to say thanks for finding all those links it is good to fill up eyes but changes nothing. The best conclusion is Intelligence:Inteligence between buyers,sellers,mortgage companies,developers,Governments,and immigration policy has been poised to remain in best position. Housing prices are poised to pop up or remain constant progressive so Government can make money from rich and transfer it to other people through employment,welfare,and health care. If housing prices does not get intelligence behind it most of people will rent a place this process will fall on Governments of the Capitalism world.If Government have no source of income how would they provide you shelters from their own pocket.… Read more »

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arit

to 185 Anonymous,

Et tu: Nicknames are free. Please select one before you insult me, as I do not want to offend all anonymous cowards with my reponse.

Regards

arit

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M-

@Kite towards moon: Just to note: the CIV article shows actual numbers only for 2008. The 2009 and 2010 figures are forecasts.

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M-

Housing starts does NOT include renovations/alterations to an existing structure, and it also does not include vacation cottages and the like.

Declan found this link and posted it on Mohican's blog:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64199/64199…

Page 13 shows the CMHC methodology for housing starts.

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M-

Next link to housing starts:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/dd/handout/HSTA…

Methodology: sum up a decade's worth of starts, and divide by 10 for a rough average annual.

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M-

Next link to household growth, same methodology:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/pop/dynamic…

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M-

@Kite to the moon:

Hi Kite, I'll post my source links over a few posts, to avoid them being getting stuck in moderation.

Population:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/pop/BCPop.a…

My methodology: took pop @ 2001, and subtracted pop @ 1991 to get an aggregate growth, then divided by 10 for a rough average annual growth.

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Kite Towards moon

@Kite towards moon 5:38am:Old is what i was trying to show on that old link, there are some projected housing starts from bcrea for 2008,2009, and 2010.

2008-34,321

2009-14,400

2010-21,000

This housing starts link is for entire bc and other link that shows number of actual completions for Vancouver cma creat uneven line year over year.so we can not divide total number of completions into number of year.If divide them into number of year then starts are not going to be consistent with demand for housing units in perticular year.

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Kite towards moon

My idiotic posts sure are getting old, aren't they?

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patriotz

@Anonymous:

More Canadians are looking to enter the housing market ahead of higher interest rates and home prices that are expected to arrive later this year

Higher interest rates and home prices? That makes as much sense as expecting both the Canucks and the Flames to win the Stanley Cup this year.

If interest rates are going up, prices must go down.

Buy now before prices go down! Don't wait!

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No Longer Looking

@Anonymous: What? You can't believe the rent? One of my co-workers just found a nice 2 bedroom Kits apartment for only $1125. It even has a little yard for his DOG. LOL good for him. And I have a pet-friendly 3 bedroom Coquitlam duplex for $1200. I'm gonna have to renegotiate my rent.

Scream LIAR all you want, but there are people in this city who don't pay crippling amounts for their housing.

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buff_butler

Eugene Fama,

In order to have a true efficient market you have to have perfect liquidity… Real estate is about as far as you can get from that. As well true efficient markets don't exist by definition; the stock market or currency market is probably the closest to that though.

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Kite towards moon

http://www.chineseinvancouver.ca/2009/11/forecast… one more link installment of housing starts for entire bc.

I am going to bed moon will take care of rest.

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Anonymous

@arit: you are a liar

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Anonymous

@VRENGD:

What a fancy story made up by self-deluding basement bear who in fact doesn't even own a brick.

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Kite towards moon

@M-: Ok in my understanding you were trying to pick up total variation and trying to split those numbers into numbers of year but then there are housing starts on right those are going down so again it confuse me.Housing starts doesn't work that way they always form an uneven line y/o/y to adjust with population,demand,and supply,Buyers and sellers behaviour is not a guranteed action for developers to speculate on it.here is link from post #98 http://www.metrovancouver.org/planning/developmen…

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VancouverGuy

I don't know if anyone read an article that was written in February in the National Post about how the market should heat up even more because of declining real estate commissions…

The economist from Scotia does not seem to understand supply and demand. Anyone else read that article? Anyways, I wrote about it today because I thought it was interesting and ridiculous…

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Kite to the moon

@M-:I don't know where to start because in first figure,population growth shows 103,000 gain and housing starts shows 275k. am i missing something?.Where did you get this 30,000 units? I beg your pardon "M" if you want to review your data please do that and also provide those 30 k units through link or just post them together by year. till then i will try posting this response. Housing starts:I believe Housing Starts are not just made of new units but other issue's like change to floor plans on the old house,and minor reno's with permits are also included in the starts. so in realty, starts does not convert into all new units.If some how we can find the missing link from 2007-2010 we will be able to align it with link at post #98. Have the imbalances been wrung… Read more »

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bhtbg

Columbus building = Luxury apartment in Yaletown on the water.

1600sqft 3 br apartment, bought in 2006 for 1.2mil

700/month strata, 6000/year tax.

Total monthly cost to carry this investment for the owner assuming 5% mortage (the historical average) = about $9000

I rent it for $3000. She rented it to me for that amount last year when I refused to pay her asking price of $3500.

So yes, I rent for 33% of what it would cost to own. And that is not mentioning the recent assessment.

This scenario repeats itself many times over in this city.

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Some guy

@Dr. Blow(hard): Go ahead, doc. Go out and buy a Van RE 'investment'. Why not go 'all-in' since you are so sure? Talk is cheap, let's see some action!

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Inventory

Mar 23, 2010 = 14312

Mar 24, 2010 = 14322

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