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April 19th, 2010 at 8:40 pm
An honest realtor is rare. A quality I demand in my agent not easy to find. People here will remember those who are and remain honest and true to themselves. Try this when any realtor says it’s a great time to buy ask them how many places they’ve bought it the last 6 months. Do as I say not as I do bullshit. Timing is everything and buying at the top and the most expensive on the earth. I can name 10 cities that are better than Vancouver and cheaper.
April 19th, 2010 at 8:35 pm
He’d get my business, I would definitely feel comfortable wuth Paul as my buyer’s agent.
April 19th, 2010 at 8:34 pm
@No Insight: Absolutely classless to insult Paul, and in the same breath mention his wife. Amongst all my male friends, anything goes but referencing family and especially significant others. You may have meant no malice, but best to steer clear.
April 19th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
@No Insight:
Wow, so much rage.
But I do love the amateur psychological assessment. Can you do one for me now?
April 19th, 2010 at 8:27 pm
The beginning of the end of the bull run is near. Listings are on the way up and sales on the way down. Game over for the bulls.
April 19th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
Paulb: You just want to see a crash out of spite and jealousy for your failed career and associates success. It’s really pathetic. You do realize that any future employer looking upon your character here would sure be dismayed by your behaviour. Hope you plan to be self-employed again.
BTW How’s the wife? Or is she still back East with her family?
PS: Go ahead sheepish supporters and bury me. Foreclosed comments probably get read more anyways.
April 19th, 2010 at 7:56 pm
New Listings 327
Price Changes 200 Holy crap!
Sold Listings 89 Bwaaaahhhhaaaha
Listings are just trickling in now. Should be good for another dozen lsitings or so. Took 16k today with authority!
We started the month with 14,600 listings. 17,000 by month end would cement the end of the Vancouver market as we know it.
April 19th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
@ED: “The government has proven it has no idea what is going on by fueling the bubble so far..”
I disagree. The powers that be knew EXACTLY what they were doing in fueling this bubble. They stalled it on purpose…deal with tomorrow what you don’t want to deal with today. But eventually you have to pay the piper!
April 19th, 2010 at 7:50 pm
Nero said: “I just hope our government (cash-strapped as it is), doesn’t try to meddle with the market and start offering a bunch of taxpayer funded incentives (like in the US) to temporarily stem the flow. That kind of stuff simply doesn’t work.”
I wouldn’t count on them not trying that stuff. The government has proven it has no idea what is going on by fueling the bubble so far, why would they do anything logical by letting is deflate on it’s own? Hell what’s a couple more billion deficit if it keeps things looking good a bit longer – like maybe until the next election?
April 19th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
“***UPDATE*** 6:58pm
16,071″
On the plus side, the canucks are playing quite well today.
April 19th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Where is superdooperdumbasskitetojupiter? He better start buying to help these sales numbers!!
April 19th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
Just 17 sales in Vancouver today.
So much for the 2 week lag in reporting.
Vancouver East & West*
New Listings – 111
Back On Market Listings – 0
Price Changes – 54
Sold Listings – 17
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 314
Back On Market Listings – 9
Price Changes – 197
Sold Listings – 88
*Attached & Detached @ 04/19/2010 19:35 PST YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV.
April 19th, 2010 at 7:41 pm
200 price changes = PANIC.
Sellers are wetting themselves, it’s like tech stocks in 2000.
April 19th, 2010 at 7:30 pm
@Limey:
“I know three people in over their head if there’s a 2 point change in interest rates. I think they are all locked in for 5 years – so I wonder if there will be several shelves of drop off as mortgage rates get renewed.”
i think you are right. i agree the market will correct slowly in stages instead of crashing >20% yoy. the new cmhc rules and higher interest rates will reduce mortgage amounts for first time buyers but not enough to stop current sellers with large amounts of equity from selling and climbing the property ladder.
as prices continue to contract people who bought in the last few years will not have as much equity. as their 5 year terms expire some may be underwater when it comes time to renew. the ones who panic or have no choice and have to sell at a loss, will dictate price movement. others may decide to re-amortize again at 35 years if the interest rates are too high and can’t manage the increased mortgage payment (similar to teaser loan, no?), will essentially become lifelong renters, but i digress.
anyways, one factor that may hasten the correction will be the speculators. with the new cmhc rules of 20% down, interest costs and potential market correction, will they abandon ship en masse or hold out. if speculators flee, at least we’ll see what the true housing demand is in vancouver.
April 19th, 2010 at 6:58 pm
***UPDATE*** 6:58pm
16,071
April 19th, 2010 at 6:52 pm
@Joycer: I third. dying for FV numbers guys.
April 19th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
CBC has some guy claiming that the 20% DP for investors will have little effect:
So the government isn’t stupid enough to lend greedy investors the money so they start going after relatives instead. This is nothing more than the age old pattern of a serious gambling addiction.
April 19th, 2010 at 6:36 pm
Happy 16,000 Vancouver!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl-o5LsYtKU
Sixteen and never been kissed…but somehow very pregnant.
April 19th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
New Listings 314
Price Changes 200
Sold Listings 89
I call 17k by April 30th
April 19th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
@Nero:
I’ll second that request for the Fraser valley numbers!
April 19th, 2010 at 6:14 pm
Can anyone post inventory stats from the Fraser Valley?
I’d love to see their % listings increases as well.
Thanks very much in advance.
April 19th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
If the Bank of Canada raises rates by a total of 75bps (0.75%) by the end of the year, that means that mortgage rates will be into the 7% range.
You can expect a sustained period of 25000+ listings at that point, and it will be an unholy bloodletting.
Wow, this could really get nasty.
I just hope our government (cash-strapped as it is), doesn’t try to meddle with the market and start offering a bunch of taxpayer funded incentives (like in the US) to temporarily stem the flow.
That kind of stuff simply doesn’t work.
April 19th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
Just saw Vancouver’s real estate market featured on a Discovery Channel show called “Destroyed in Seconds”.
It was riveting programming.
April 19th, 2010 at 5:52 pm
Gotta agree with Dude that our melt down will be “worst” than the US. In fact I think it will be MORE WORSER.
We got a lot of catching up to do, and it looks like we’re getting our second wind.
April 19th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
“MARKET SENTIMENT” ahhhh GREED TURNS TO FEAR.
April 19th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
20,000 I’ll say late May/early June. 30,000 who knows.
April 19th, 2010 at 5:24 pm
************* 1/1/2010 / 4/19/2010 / % change
Bowen Isld 46 / 106 / 130.43%
_Bby East 68 / 154 / 126.47%
_Bby North 345 / 732 / 112.17%
Bby South 362 / 687 / 89.78%
Coquitlam 531 / 1084 / 104.14%
Van.&Gulf 215 / 261 / 21.40%
___Ladner 65 / 153 / 135.38%
MapleRidge 575 / 969 / 68.52%
_New West 262 / 567 / 116.41%
_North Van. 412 / 915 / 122.09%
OutofTown 105 / 74 / -29.52%
_Pitt Mead 121 / 190 / 57.02%
_Port Coq. 237 / 443 / 86.92%
PortMoody 213 / 424 / 99.06%
_Richmond 893 / 1733 / 94.06%
_Squamish 402 / 495 / 23.13%
Sunshine C. 656 / 1031 / 57.16%
_Tsawssen 98 / 181 / 84.69%
__Van East 767 / 1366 / 78.10%
_Van West 1396 / 3091 / 121.42%
_West Van 386 / 636 / 64.77%
__Whistler 569 / 757 / 33.04%
_____Total 8724 / 16049 / 83.96%
**5:24pm
April 19th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
any guess when we’ll hit 20,000? 30,000?
April 19th, 2010 at 5:13 pm
@rig jockey:
“i don’t think the new cmhc rules and interest hikes will turn off the flow of new homebuyers completely. as asking prices adjust downward, there will still be buyers for whatever reason (pre-approval expiring, nesting, peer pressure, fear etc…) people like my friend, who recently sold (sitting on $200k) are renting sort term until things simmer down a bit (no multiple bid situation) she believes the market will not crash, so she doesn’t see the point in waiting too long. ”
Your reasoning is sound – but I wonder how much the psychological side of house prices dropping will compound the numbers getting out of the leaky vessel.
Reason and principles were bypassed over the last 3 1/2 years. I wonder if emotions (fear for example, ironically a driver on the way up) will start to drive the market.
I know three people in over their head if there’s a 2 point change in interest rates. I think they are all locked in for 5 years – so I wonder if there will be several shelves of drop off as mortgage rates get renewed.
April 19th, 2010 at 5:12 pm
@Inventory: On May 20th@20K (aka milestone 2020)…
As the Horde and Alliance of specuvestors race to the epicenter of the cataclysm, the kingdoms of Vancouver will witness seismic shifts in power, the kindling of a war of the fundamentals, and the emergence of the rates and regulations who will rise up to protect their scarred and broken world from utter devastation.
Cataclysm is a trademark, and World of Warcraft and Blizzard Entertainment are trademarks or registered trademarks of Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
April 19th, 2010 at 5:08 pm
Is this now that point of the roller coaster where the front car disappears as it starts to head down the first big hill??? Could be.
April 19th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
Life is good
New Listings 273
Price Changes 183
Sold Listings 81
Nice day for a 16k party
April 19th, 2010 at 4:49 pm
@Inventory:
KC and the Sunshine Band:
“Do a little dance,
Make a little love,
Get down tonight!
Get down tonight!
Wooooo! Baby!!!!
April 19th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
Nice to see price changes double the number on sales. Telling.
Almost reading to break out some bubbly!
April 19th, 2010 at 4:41 pm
@paulb: April 19th – sold/list as of Paul B’s latest is 30%!
Massively bearish territory in that number.
Whoot!!!
April 19th, 2010 at 4:31 pm
***BREAKING NEWS***4:31PM 16K PARTY!!!
16,037
April 19th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
@Best place on meth:
Which is an oxymoron, but in Vancouver, logic always takes a back seat.
April 19th, 2010 at 4:26 pm
Cheap credit. Why is it so hard for some people to figure out the effect cheap credit has on prices?
April 19th, 2010 at 3:59 pm
New Listings 231
Price Changes 159
Sold Listings 69
April 19th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
@Not much of a name…:
It’s not that simple when it comes to renter occupied dwellings.
You have apartment buildings and co-ops that cannot be put on the market like condos/houses.
Then there are SFH’s with multiple residences.
April 19th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
@Best place on meth:
Wouldn’t they all be owned? If a person is renting it owned by someone else.
April 19th, 2010 at 3:26 pm
@paulb:
Thanks Paul,
500K should be a reasonable guess then for households that are owned.
April 19th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
@Best place on meth:
Looks like 817,225 households in GVRD from the 2006 Vancouver census.
http://www.tol.ca/files/web_fi.....-_GVRD.pdf
April 19th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
Klump is right. We will not have the same melt down as the US. It will be worst. The longer we wait, the higher we climb, the greater it will fall!!!!!!
Vancouver housing crash will be steep and fast. Recovery will not be for a decade. And no more low interest rates.
April 19th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
@paulb:
Sorry, I meant total properties. Not just the ones for sale.
With 2 million people and an ownership rate in the 65% range I’m guessing there could be 500,000 properties in Metro Van with about 2.5 people per residence.
I’m just wondering how high inventory could get if 5% or 10% decide they want to sell in the next year or two.
April 19th, 2010 at 3:14 pm
@Inventory: F*CK IT. I’m starting the party NOW! C’mon over!
April 19th, 2010 at 3:13 pm
@Inventory: BRING IT BABY–ONE MORE TIME–PAPA NEEDS SOME RELEASE–ONE MORE BABY
April 19th, 2010 at 3:13 pm
************* 1/1/2010 / 4/19/2010 / % change
Bowen Isld 46 / 106 / 130.43%
_Bby East 68 / 154 / 126.47%
_Bby North 345 / 732 / 112.17%
Bby South 362 / 689 / 90.33%
Coquitlam 531 / 1086 / 104.52%
Van.&Gulf 215 / 261 / 21.40%
___Ladner 65 / 151 / 132.31%
MapleRidge 575 / 970 / 68.70%
_New West 262 / 568 / 116.79%
_North Van. 412 / 906 / 119.90%
OutofTown 105 / 74 / -29.52%
_Pitt Mead 121 / 189 / 56.20%
_Port Coq. 237 / 442 / 86.50%
PortMoody 213 / 421 / 97.65%
_Richmond 893 / 1722 / 92.83%
_Squamish 402 / 492 / 22.39%
Sunshine C. 656 / 1021 / 55.64%
_Tsawssen 98 / 181 / 84.69%
__Van East 767 / 1358 / 77.05%
_Van West 1396 / 3087 / 121.13%
_West Van 386 / 634 / 64.25%
__Whistler 569 / 755 / 32.69%
_____Total 8724 / 15999 / 83.39%
April 19th, 2010 at 3:11 pm
3:11pm
15,999
April 19th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
@Best place on meth:
I’m told 4448 for just Van East and Van West. Inventory will know for sure.