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Friday 15k free-for-all!

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It’s the end of another week! The weekend is here, so lets do our regular end of the week link roundup and open-topic economic discussion post.  Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–REBGV inventory just hit 15k
–Charts comparing inventory levels since 2005
–Bond market expects aggressive mortgage rate increases
–New mortgage rules to destroy jobs and increase fraud?
–Spring panic: Leap before you look
–Royal LePage: Housing market overheated
–CBC news video: Vancouver house prices
–Ignore this warning at your own peril
–Some agents jump into discount sellers market
–Vancouver homeless population up 12% since 2008
–Greece staggers deeper into crisis
–1.2 million US households lost in recession
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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anonymous

another anecdote related to unemployment: my friend works for a Vancouver outplacement firm – they have never been so busy assisting with downsizing. Starting tomorrow, and going all week, they will be assisting with the lay-off of 300 professionals from one company at various offices throughout town. I wasn't told more details due to confidentiality, but was told that it will probably be in the news.

Apparently this is just one big downsizing job of many to come that have been booked for the next few months.

It is pretty scary, and it all just makes me very relieved to be a debt-free renter of a nice kits apt ($900 total monthly living costs) with a big emergency fund.

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ReadyToPop

Vancouver Metro Unemployment:

January 2009 = 4.9%

March 2010 = 7.8%

Source: BC Stats///Page 15

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/lfs/LFSdata.pdf

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Strataman

@arit: This insane RE market is a huge mental-institution inside a madhouse built in a psychiatric hospital surrounded by a lunatic asylum!

I was out bike riding at Colony Farms was looking at the restricted area and thinking it's not big enough!

Best comment by far Arit!

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arit

From the abovementioned article: "The Canadian population wanted to buy a home, that was the No. 1 goal. People were taking on high debt loads, stretching the amortization out as long as possible and lenders were looking at all the opportunities. It made sense when the market was hot, but of course, no one could foresee the problems." ———————— I have so many remarks about this article I am afraid I will drain all the words from the internet! But I will not bore you with ALL my remarks, let's select 3 or 4… 1. It's a bit too early to say "The Canadian population wanted to buy a home". It's still happening, how can you refer to it in past tense? The horses are still escaping, right now, yes. 2. This article is about 100,000 mortgage, pfftt… Here in… Read more »

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patriotz

@ReadyToPop:

I’m encouraged by the ACB though….I guess some central banks manage to have interventionist policy!

All central banks have an interventionist policy. That's what they're for.

The difference is in how they choose to intervene.

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ReadyToPop

Further comment on that FP article:

Notice how the story starts out with a very (admittedly) sad story about worsening health and bankruptcy…..but how about writing a sad story about responsible tax paying young families who chose to save and got left behind in a crazy market fueled by monetary policy madness. Where is their "bailout"?

Australia’s central bank governor Glenn Stevens:

Stevens said last week that Australian house prices are “getting too high,” signaling he wants to minimize the danger of a housing boom and bust in the aftermath of the U.S. example.

Australia’s Stevens Raises Key Interest Rate to 4.25%

I'm encouraged by the ACB though….I guess some central banks manage to have interventionist policy!

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ReadyToPop

From that FP article…

But the industry is so concerned about the situation that it recently approached the federal government with a request for a bailout.

Yeah, here they go…no shame…after running up the market and everyone making money along the way. Now they want the taxpayer to fork out. They can shove it up their….

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patriotz

@Summer:

The point of posting the link to the article was for the sake of those who say there was NO risky lending in Canada.

If so that's missing the point. What makes a mortgage loan risky is if the amount is out of proportion to the rental value of the house or the borrower's income, not whether you call it "suprime" or not.

The loan in that story was far less risky than EVERY mortgage loan in Vancouver. The difference is the the taxpayers aren't holding the bag on it, thus the lender has been forced to call the balance.

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Summer

The point of posting the link to the article was for the sake of those who say there was NO risky lending in Canada. The article may have focused on one couple in one area of Canada but no doubt there were other such loans made elsewhere in Canada. As Anonymous @ 3:02 says, who knows how many were made in Vancouver. People here it seems have been more willing than elsewhere in Canada to do just about anything to get into a home.

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Anonymous

@Summer: "Industry insiders say that over the next few years the Marentettes' story will play out over and over again across Canada, as an estimated 30,000 so-called "orphan mortgages" reach maturity. Unless the government takes action, this may trigger a flood of foreclosures." — LOL government has no room to act. They have a big enough problem with CMHC mortgages. Some people are going to learn the meaning of YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN. "In the wake of the financial crisis, the business of subprime loans has dried up. Prior to 2007, there were at least a dozen subprime lenders in Canada and it was the fastest-growing sector of the entire mortgage market, says Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, who pegged it at about 5% of the total market." — There you go, 5%. Probably more like… Read more »

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patriotz

@Summer:

Something isn't being told in this story. Why can't this couple get a conventional mortgage on a 100K house? The husband has a bankruptcy, but the wife should qualify on her income alone. The payments would only be about $400/month.

BTW go to mls.ca and take a look at the houses in Chatham. You can actually make money being a landlord there. Here's a $50,000 house that rents for $550/month:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…

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Summer

Article in the Financial Post: Subprime Mortgages Alive Here

http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.h…

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realpaul

Walked past a 'newspaper box' pf Mtetro papers saying that million dollar homes are the norm. Have heard recently that 'people in the 3 to 4 hundred K range are 'moving up'. lets examine this. Inflation in milk cheese meat gasoline and everything else including RE has been raging at 20% per annum for the last 5 years. Anyone who hasn't noticed this is living in Moms basement and need think no further. This is not a local phenom it is also proving up as we see the CDN dollar up 20% against the USD and import prices are still accelerating, the opposite of what should be taking place. So, is the RE market at $1 million? No way says I. The value of a dollar has gone down and its all smoke and mirrors by the government to induce… Read more »

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spitfires

Thanks for all the renting replies everyone. ulsterman I can completely sympathize with you about not wanting to fix things up for the landlord anymore, that describes my situation exactly. Well, we went and looked at 4 houses yesterday and here's what we saw: 1. The tenants were doing the showing as they were 'helping the landlord out' because they had bought a house with a variable rate mortgage out in Agazzis. The only other potential tenants there was a very young couple. Not the place for us though, so we left. 2. When we showed up at the house, the grass was very long, outside of house was needing maintenance, and the shower had rot and mold all around it. Current tenants had a lot of medical equipment including a huge oxygen machine, maybe the immigrant family looking at… Read more »

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vreaa

Thanks for all the work regarding formatting efficiency, Pope.

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Kite towards moon

Me,

246+594/666

Agents stats shows listing gain at only 594 listings sales at 666 sales.What about 2000 listing down under? It is a junk of trash can when listing fire burn after sales.It also prove one more fact and that is "when it comes to provide factual data even board can't cheat with bears on the blogs".Trash can is most likely made of tripple count after expiry,reduction and increase in prices.

Results:Run Buddy Run.

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domus

Thanks. It helps.

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me

reverse order is great!

thanks.

Sales still strong, pre-approvals/locked in rates/April 19th…HST…rising rates (rush to entrance) will keep things supported for another month or two….

but – the writing is on the wall.

I see us at 16,000 in the next couple of weeks, and pushing to 17,000 by mid May…

We are now, today, at a 12 month high in listings. check out the charts by agentwill…..sales year over year are going to start looking fucking ugly in May….its on its way.

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admin

@domus: any chance you can allow the option to view ALL comments directly from the main page?

Your second question was why I set up the multi-page option. Increased readers means more demand on the server, and once we get 100 or so comments it takes a while to load them up. Basically I need to sit down and do some trouble-shooting/ optimizing to speed this up.

In the short term, this may address your first question. I just changed the links from the main page. If you click on the orange box with the number of comments you get the 1st page of comments, if you click on the story title you get all the comments in reverse order.

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vreaa

British Columbians Selling & Moving To The US – “It was just too good of an opportunity to turn down.”

Stills and quotes from the CTV News clip, 9 Apr 2010 –
http://wp.me/pcq1o-If

For many owners, home prices have reached such high levels that cashing out becomes a life-changing proposition. Some act on this; many don't. Of those who don't sell now, a good number will try to do so once prices start dropping. It is particularly painful to see what was once a 'home run' becoming a 'single', and then, perhaps even a 'strike-out'. These sellers will add to supply as the market falls. -vreaa

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patriotz

@Disbelief:

the banks here wouldn’t sell for any less than market value. Which is really a stupid statement beacause when they are flooded with foreclosures they will take what they can get.

Taking what you can get is the definition of market value.

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Disbelief

If Shiller is right there will be blood in the streets and the discussion of real estate will be equal to a dirty diaper. I was chatting with a realtor last week and foreclosures came up and he said that the banks here wouldn't sell for any less than market value. Which is really a stupid statement beacause when they are flooded with foreclosures they will take what they can get. He said the foreclosures right now are being held until they can sell them for max regardless of how long it takes 30, 60, 90 days. I will bet this will change once the price starts to decline.

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Anonymous

@jesse: Since they usually get dozens of applicants for a property they’ll probably just throw your application in the bin "

Available NOW indicates NO applicants not dozens of applicants. And there are about 30 to 40 % available now ie VACANT! Renters/tenants market! 🙂

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patriotz

Consumers in U.S. Face the End of an Era of Cheap Credit Even as prospects for the American economy brighten, consumers are about to face a new financial burden: a sustained period of rising interest rates. That, economists say, is the inevitable outcome of the nation’s ballooning debt and the renewed prospect of inflation as the economy recovers from the depths of the recent recession. The shift is sure to come as a shock to consumers whose spending habits were shaped by a historic 30-year decline in the cost of borrowing. “Americans have assumed the roller coaster goes one way,” said Bill Gross, whose investment firm, Pimco, has taken part in a broad sell-off of government debt, which has pushed up interest rates. “It’s been a great thrill as rates descended, but now we face an extended climb.” And where… Read more »

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FoRenter

@ulsterman: That's weird man my landlord just gave me another rent reduction! Third time this month.

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