Friday 15k free-for-all!
It’s the end of another week! The weekend is here, so lets do our regular end of the week link roundup and open-topic economic discussion post. Here are a few links to kick off the chat:
-REBGV inventory just hit 15k
-Charts comparing inventory levels since 2005
-Bond market expects aggressive mortgage rate increases
-New mortgage rules to destroy jobs and increase fraud?
-Spring panic: Leap before you look
-Royal LePage: Housing market overheated
-CBC news video: Vancouver house prices
-Ignore this warning at your own peril
-Some agents jump into discount sellers market
-Vancouver homeless population up 12% since 2008
-Greece staggers deeper into crisis
-1.2 million US households lost in recession
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
April 9th, 2010 at 1:45 am 1
Listings have been through the roof and sales are still doing well. When do you think this last wave of panicked buyers will be done – 1 month, 2 months?
Those who have went house hunting for months – don't cave in and buy just because you've searched for so long and want to get it over with. Don't give in – the tides are changing.
There's something that everyone's feeling – the anticipation, buzz, to expect something big is about to change. Please keep the listings coming – people trying to sell bc they cant find a post olympics renters, those who have waited and wanted to be at the peak before selling, the april spring sellers, all the new condos being released – keep them coming.
Panic on the other side will start happening. The exit door is only that big.
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April 9th, 2010 at 4:10 am 2
Does this mean the market is about to tank? Sure… eventually. Indeed, the next Crisis has already begun, it simply has yet to hit our shores. That Crisis is in paper money.
Right now, there is a flight from paper money occurring worldwide. You can see this in Gold’s chart denominated in ALL the major currencies.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Summers/apr062010.html
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April 9th, 2010 at 5:01 am 3
@Furlong is Paranoid:
A flight from paper money necessarily means high interest rates. If people are afraid of their money losing value they will lend only at higher interest rates to compensate for it. Interest rates have gone up but of course they are still below historical norms.
The price of gold indicates only the sentiments of people who buy gold.
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April 9th, 2010 at 5:14 am 4
The inventory growth since January has been notable. The huge acceleration over the last week has been remarkable.
But there is still one shoe to drop.
Sales are still doing well.
I suspect this is because of a rush to beat April 19th. It takes a few days for sales to be booked, so I don't expect to see the full impact on the numbers until the last week of April.
Here's what I'll be watching. Do sales move under 100 a day?
If we see that, then we can finally, truly, and with complete confidence say: RIP Vancouver Housing Bubble, 2003-2010. Watch the sales number . . .
Actually, make that RIH, not RIP.
(RIH=rot in hell)
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April 9th, 2010 at 6:26 am 5
Is it mostly condos being dumped on the market in this recent surge of listings or are properties of all types being listed equally?
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April 9th, 2010 at 6:45 am 6
@VHB: The 19th is definitly responsible for the high sales, what explains the high listings? Those people qualified under old rules and want to get out? Why? Probably because they are sitting under a barely affordable mortgage (variable) and have realized they can't afford to change to a fixed as they can barely make it now. They are not upgrading because whatever they upgrade too has increased in value along with their current "asset". In fact more as SFH seems to be the highest increase.
So sales and listings are driven by two different reasons I think!
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:06 am 7
Vancouver RE only goes up…. only this time around it's the listings.
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:16 am 8
Bears everyone knows that as supply comes on the scene this market snaps them up quickly. The more supply the more buyers come. That's exactly what we're seeing if you deny it you are the greatest fool. If you sit out this opportunity you will lose.
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:18 am 9
Does anyone here read local Chinese newspapers? What do they say?
What's the advice they give on RE these days?
I really think this will be the key element to how this market behaves in the coming weeks.
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:21 am 10
@boom2vancouver:
Get the fuck outta here, boom2.
You're joking, right?
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:28 am 11
@boom2vancouver:
Don't you worry about us bears on the sidelines, you just go out and buy all the real estate you can! You don't want to miss out on this "opportunity"
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:33 am 12
@boom2vancouver:
Boom2vancouver, don't forget to buy tree for your husbun and tree for yourself. Act quick, supply is limited to 15,000 today and only 16,000 next month.
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:50 am 13
Hum, this does not help the RE in Van, or is it different here?
"B.C.'s unemployment rate jumped to 7.9 per cent from 7.7 per cent in February as full time job losses outnumbered part-time gains as the labour force grew a bit. "
No change for national unemployment rate; B.C. is up
Goes against some economist predictions..
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April 9th, 2010 at 8:03 am 14
Great analysis of the US RE market:
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/04/06/…
And take note that he is still negative on home ownership in the US with average prices only half of what they now are in Canada, and with no US market anywhere near as high in valuations as Vancouver. Note I said "valuations", i.e. price/rent and price/income, not just price.
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April 9th, 2010 at 8:11 am 15
Summer,
The recent surge in listing is just in downtown any other areas are just cool like any other year,What you see on the blog is this poster "Inventory"alnog with paulb and their board members,These people are running a comparison of listings with Jaunuary while real comparision should be month over month and year over year.If you compare y/o/y/ listings it will make no difference,If you add numbers of new completion during the year,The total number of inventory could be laughable.I think they are making a fool of bears unless every single bears go to sleep shortly.Interesting thing is that sales are very strong and prices are going up,I would pat those sellers on their back who are coming forward to list their homes because the more of shaky investors or owner will get out of Vancouver real estate,Their exit will make this market more stronger.I have heard it's not even sellers that want to exit themself but their advisors.Who are their advisor? Most of idoits in service sectors, those have no other source of income.They first advice seller to exit and then advice them to buy back on high prices with increased interest rates.
<a href="http://www.rebgv.org/housing-price-index?region=Vancouver+West&type=all&date=2010-03-01" rel="nofollow">VW Downtown Peninsula
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April 9th, 2010 at 8:24 am 16
I must have hit a sore spot Boom2 and Kite reduced my score heh heh was 4 and suddenly dropped! (#6) What's a matter guys can't afford to fix your mortgage rate? Read this; Kite @ 15;
"I would pat those sellers on their back who are coming forward to list their homes because the more of shaky investors or owner will get out of Vancouver real estate,Their exit will make this market more stronger.I have heard it’s not even sellers that want to exit themself but their advisors"
Well I believe you're right Kite; those damn taxi cab driver advisers you use! No respect for investors like you!
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April 9th, 2010 at 8:54 am 17
Finally inventory has gone up. This should increase selection for buyers. Frankly, what's currently been listed in the past few months have been loser properties. Only the good ones get bid up.
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:05 am 18
18th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:18 am 19
@happyday: shocking!
From G&M:
"The economy shed 14,200 full-time jobs last month, while creating 32,200 part-time positions. It's a reversal of a month earlier, when full-time jobs drove the gains, partly due to Olympic-related hiring."
Recovery?
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:33 am 20
I have been a bear too long, I love the inventory shooting up, it makes my day, but the 300 plus sales a day is worrying. Sure we are getting 500 plus listings a day for a net gain of 200 which is staggering, but the 300 sales a day is crazy. I have learned not to underestimtate the stupidity of vancouverites when it comes to RE. It may be a rush to lock in the rate they had since the 5 year went up a bit but then another rate hike could cause another bunch to once again try and jump in to get their better rate. I really don't think I can get excited until we are at 20k listings again. But i am getting a wee bit giddy…
Where are these buyers coming from? I thought the pool of idiots would have been exhausted by now, we must be now tapping the pool of teenage almost 20 year old buyers. Once this pops we won't have a huge pool of buyers for at least a decade!
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April 9th, 2010 at 10:04 am 21
I'm with you Damann. I'm getting giddy but I won't get excited just yet.
Anecdote time: I have family who rent a house. Apparently this landlord has listed both of his investment houses for sale. He's hoping to sell before the April 19th deadline. At least one of these million dollar investment properties was bought with 0% down. My family tells me he believes this is now the top of the market.
Interesting times. I'm looking for to seeing the inventory and sales numbers come May/June. I'm sure that this past year we've been taking buyers from the future. Sorta cash for clunkers housing style.
I don't yet it though. Sure you get a great rate for 5 years, but why do none of these people feel afraid of what they'll have to refinance at?? This most of all baffles me.
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April 9th, 2010 at 10:05 am 22
@DaMann: I share your sentiments. The pool of greater fools in this market appears to be a bottomless pit so far. That said I think a bottom may well be forming.
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April 9th, 2010 at 10:31 am 23
@BCite:
These idiots don't think about financing in 5 years because "rates will always be low" These morons think 5% is astronomical, they have never even seen historical normal rates of 7 or 8%. and of course if they have to renew in 5 years and they can't afford it they will just sell it for double the money and be rich right??? Right? fools…
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April 9th, 2010 at 10:42 am 24
Another 5% of price increases and the present value of the interest rate drops will be exhausted, bringing us back to the situation in 2008. The new CMHC regulations should slow things down a little. Will be interesting to see how the olympic housing capacity gets used up. If higher interest rates are anticipated, better to wait for corresponding price drops as typically a small increase in the interest rate will cause a large price drop.
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April 9th, 2010 at 10:50 am 25
Strataman,
I am definitely right as you know since you exit from the market in 2005 market appreciation is at 140%.you can always count on it and count on your advisors for decades to come.
Damann,
I have never ever seen any dumb like you,Do you know since you have exit from West Vancouver in 2008 <a href="http://www.rebgv.org/housing-price-index?region=West+Vancouver&type=all&date=2010-03-01" rel="nofollow">Westside market went up 29% and imagine that commissions you have paid to your realtor and advisors is really paying you off.It feels good when you call other people idiots or fools.
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April 9th, 2010 at 10:51 am 26
How how many years (or decades) will real estate drop (or stagnate)?
Less enrollment in schools over the last decade means fewer buyers in the future.
CBC: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2…
Over the last decade, enrollment has falled in 52 of 60 school districts in BC! Fewer students means less household formation when they finish school, which means fewer tenants and/or homebuyers.
Couple that with downsizing Boomers, and the "echo boom" generation finishing up their home buying frenzy right now, and there's some long-term pain for housing markets.
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April 9th, 2010 at 10:57 am 27
@Kite towards moon:
Kite
I'm flattered that you like me so much that you follow my life. But let me correct you. I never owned RE in West Van. I bought in 2005 and sold in May 2008. 9 months after selling my place comparables were down 23%, it's only today that prices are back to PAR of what I sold. In those 2 years I have lived blissfully renting in an area I truly want to be, oh yes AND making money off my money in the bank.
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:12 am 28
@Kite towards moon: Yep you is right. Since then I have built a brand new Quonset shop on my payed off place in the Chilcotin, and the family and I are out off town 50 % of the time either there or at my small 3 bedroom TH 1200 sq ft.(free and clear) in S.Cal. I so wish I'd stayed in the original place and spent the last five years looking out at the rain every day!
Now the place I rent is up for sale so hmmm guess I'll just rent by the week when I need to be here, those fully furnished places are so cheap and include everything, don't even need a utility account. What yah think? 
Strataman
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:14 am 29
Thanks for all the links, Pope.
We have archived photo stills and quotes from the CBC video clip, for posterity.
CBC TV News – $1M Milestone – “What we’re seeing now, is people are moving typically in three- or four-hundred dollar chunks up the property ladder.”
http://wp.me/pcq1o-HB
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:16 am 30
LOL those Financial Post stories are a gong show. This is what passes for journalism in Canada?? Good lord…. pathetic.
Hey no problem refinancing in 5 years because you know, real estate always goes up!! Except when it doesn't, right Kite? Maybe you were in a coma in 2008.
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:18 am 31
@vreaa: hahaha
Freudian typo!
Make that "in three- or four-hundred thousand dollar chunks"
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:26 am 32
Damann,
It is hard to figure out whether you are happy or whinning because the price of similar house to get back in the market will cost you 23% extra plus the difference of commissions you have paid during sale of your principle residence.
Is there any direction of participation?
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:32 am 33
A couple years ago I started going to open houses with my wife. We just thought we'd try to learn about what such a big purchase would involve. I could see the hype, but I didn't feel too compelled to push against it. Quickly though, I found myself getting angry. Angry that we were even discussing shoeboxes that were going for $600 per sqft, etc., I started looking for information online. I was hoping to hear at least some voices that made me feel like I wasn't some crazy curmudgeon that was missing the point about RE here in Vancouver. This site was one of the places I eventually uncovered and I've been happily lurking ever since (with close to zero understanding of RE, investing, etc. going in, there wasn't much point in adding my voice).
I figured I'd take this opportunity to thank thoughtful posters on this site who have given me wonderful points and counter-points to use while discussing why I don't want to buy in this town any time soon. It helped my wife and I crystallize what we wanted to do about housing: we elected not to buy and have instead rented a spacious place that's about 10 minutes walking from work. We've also socked away thousands each month, meaning we can buy IF IT MAKES SENSE TO DO SO later on.
Maybe we're now facing RE-mageddon (am I the first to use that?), maybe not yet. Either way, to the bears (and, yes, some of the bulls): thanks for giving me some tools to help make reasoned decisions about home (not) buying.
Cheers.
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:33 am 34
Vancouver's very existence is based on buying and selling properties to each other. If this stops, there's nothing else left to support the fake lifestyle this place is so proud of.
RE, Drugs and Porn – three main engines of BC economy. They must be supported at all cost.
I work in the Oakridge area of Vancouver and when I go for a walk at lunchtime I see Bentleys, Aston Martins and Ferraris zooming by every day, I don't even pay attention to all the TOTL Mercedes or BMWs… they're like a blurry background…
What a stark contrast to what's on the road at 6:30 in the morning when I'm coming to the office – those are people who are actually going to WORK and they all happen to drive beat-up Corolla's, Ford Tempos and Chevy Cavaliers. No Ferrari in sight, no sir… Plenty of gray, tired faces staring lifelessly through steamy trolley windows though, just to complete the true social picture of this town.
The rich and famous elite need their beauty sleep – they don't get out until noon, you know…
It's quite revealing, actually.
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:33 am 35
Strataman,
Thanks for your response,you look so happy moving door to door.Keep it up!
Time to fly another kite.
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:35 am 36
@Kite towards moon:
Are you stupid or just being obtuse? How could a similar place cost me 25% extra? It would cost me the same in what I sold it! In case you haven't figured it out, and "over the moon" that I sold! Why on earth would I want to buy that same place when I can buy it half price in 3 years? RE commisions were not much, the buyer was an agent and didn't charge his half. I have made those commissions back and then some with the money I got out of the overpriced garbage that I sold. I didn't even mention the $7k in assessments that came after I sold.
Enough of me wasting finger energy typing responses to you!
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:36 am 37
@Kite towards ground
What if he is happy and winning?
Learn how to spell check, at the very least, before you post..
There's only one way this market is going to go..
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/04/08/bubble-r-i-p…
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:53 am 38
Damann,
So you were whining to get 50% off- thanks for your help.
Homes 2012,
Garth turner never lose.
Have a good weekend everyone!
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:53 am 39
There's also the Olympic Village Condos coming for sale in May, that'll add another 1,000 units to the real estate market at premium prices.
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:56 am 40
Correct that, not a 1,000 units for the Olympic condos… I forget what the number was… I think I read they had to sell it at $1,000 per sqft to break even.
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April 9th, 2010 at 12:12 pm 41
Many a bear sit in cave and hope for big price drop never see it. Why so unhappy bear? Listing high sales high prices higher and higher. What does it mean for bear? Market fundamental not applying to Vancouver re since it's different here bear. Vancouver socialist paradise and in socialist utopia prices always go up. Just like russia bread line bear. Just like russia bread line. You want bread you get in early.
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April 9th, 2010 at 12:25 pm 42
I heard it's about 270'ish units coming to the market from the Olympic Village on May 15.
Mind you, some of it is supposed to be "affordable housing stock" but we'll see if COV can actually afford that, bet it will be the last resort – only if they can not sell all the marketable units at premium price.
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April 9th, 2010 at 12:51 pm 43
KiteBoom, keep it up I think I we're finally starting to get our message across to the holdouts! Thanks buddy!
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April 9th, 2010 at 12:56 pm 44
@boom2vancouver:
Boom2,
Now I know you ARE joking. Thanx for a clarification.
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April 9th, 2010 at 1:27 pm 45
@White Payer: I work in the Oakridge area of Vancouver and when I go for a walk at lunchtime I see Bentleys, Aston Martins and Ferraris zooming by every day,
what I find particularly revealing is that you tend to see those cars in "cheaper" areas like burnaby, southvan, Richmond, etc. In Point Grey I'm always amazed how many people that live here are older with cheap mid-90s model cars. In central/east van it's strange to see how many shiity houses have Mercedes or beamers parked out front, usually 10 or 15 years old, but shiny. I guess it's all about asset alocation and the importance some place on keeping up appearances.
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April 9th, 2010 at 1:57 pm 46
Most of those luxury cars are leased, they'll be gone in the blink of an eye.
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April 9th, 2010 at 1:59 pm 47
It's different here, mate!
Property boom spurs spending spree
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April 9th, 2010 at 2:01 pm 48
@boom2vancouver:
In Soviet Russia, real estate buys you.
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April 9th, 2010 at 2:21 pm 49
@The Ant:
Many of those really flashy cars you see in middle class areas are the proceeds of crime, namely marijuana grow ops. In case you haven't noticed, and you probably haven't, but the Kingsway corridor is now overtaken by Vietnamese cafes, restaurants, beauty salons, etc. The Vietnamese population is relatively small in Vancouver. Why the explosion of Vietnamese small businesses? All proceeds of grow ops. The funny thing is, Caucasians all think Asians "look alike", and can't tell who is legit and who isn't. So they all attribute it simply to "HOT HOT money from Asia". No doubt there is money flowing from Asia, but there is a huge, HUGE, amount of money being grown, literally in basements all over these middle class neigbourhoods. And yes, they do launder money through property. Its very easy when you have equally corrupt mortgage brokers, and realtors, in their own community.
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April 9th, 2010 at 2:24 pm 50
@The Ant: I live out in cheap Coquitlam and see very few luxury vehicles. Meanwhile, when I go to work in Kits, *bang* Beemers and Mercedes everywhere. I watch them come and go from a nearby condo garage. Where do they get the money? Oh yeah, they lease.
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April 9th, 2010 at 2:47 pm 51
Hey retards, you have to have money to lease a nice car!
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April 9th, 2010 at 2:56 pm 52
@Neptune:
No, all you need is credit, or more to the point a HELOC
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April 9th, 2010 at 3:03 pm 53
The plumbers are not working. So says my plumber friend, relaxing over coffee on a sunny Friday afternoon, with no work.
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April 9th, 2010 at 3:07 pm 54
As of 3pm:
201 Listings
69 Price changes
69 Sales
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April 9th, 2010 at 3:15 pm 55
Hey PaulB
you are awesome buddy. I will miss you when my day of reckoning comes.
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April 9th, 2010 at 3:38 pm 56
M- Says:
April 9th, 2010 at 10:51 am
Less enrollment in schools over the last decade means fewer buyers in the future.
Over the last decade, enrollment has falled in 52 of 60 school districts in BC! Fewer students means less household formation when they finish school, which means fewer tenants and/or homebuyers.
++++++++++++
I agree with your sentiments, but also consider that our government doesn't give a rat's ass if born and raised BC'ers can afford to buy here, even live here.
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April 9th, 2010 at 4:19 pm 57
Sunny weekend forecast. Unfortunately much of the new inventory will be bought. Watch for huge sales numbers a few days after.
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April 9th, 2010 at 4:21 pm 58
@Chilled: I agree– I don't think the BC (or even the Feds) really give a damn if us locals can afford real estate or not… As long as nobody's rioting over it or blaming the current political-party-in-power.
I also don't think the government has much real long-term control over the price of housing– short term they can create incentives and the like (and they were evidently very successful in 2009), but the effect of those measures is short-term.
[b]Longer-term, demographics will rule[/b]. In fact, the current boom can be seen as a result of long-term demographics, and so will the coming bust!
Due to the baby boomers, prices spiked (as did interest rates) when they were entering the home market in the late 70s. With the recent baby boom echo graduating and entering the home-buying crowd, that explains the current boom. With the boom-echo group now having bought, and with federal incentives (such as dirt-cheap mortgages) pulling demand from the entirety of the boom echo, there's empty space where there should be buyers. Actually, even the boomers have had a tendency to lever up during the recent boom, buying more and more property to finance their retirements. At some point, they won't be buying any more, and will want to sell their holdings to pay for retirement.
What happens when there's nobody left?
The US is a perfect example of what happens when the housing ponzi encounters the vacuum when future demand has been pulled forward. The UK has seen the same.
And so too, will we!
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April 9th, 2010 at 4:38 pm 59
So far the sales have been pretty tame.
Today so far:
Listings 280
Price changes 93
Sales 75
I don't remember if the board worked late on Fridays. I guess we will see.
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April 9th, 2010 at 4:57 pm 60
I know a couple making $55,000 (total household income) and they just bought a BMW. No asset, nothing. Just overwhelmed with debts. But they could not resist…
Go figure…
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April 9th, 2010 at 5:05 pm 61
Had breakfast with a couple of Australians yesterday here in Singapore, as one is moving to Dubai. The other mentioned they had just bought a house in Sydney for A$1.4 million and a $7000 mortgage. They need to spend another $100,000 on renos and then plan to rent it out for $3500.
They can carry the remainder of the mortgage comfortably but I thought it was interesting that the logic for buying was the fear of being left behind as prices continue to rise.
During these conversations you always wonder if you're looking at the last one holding the can. In this case I'm pretty sure I was.
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April 9th, 2010 at 5:12 pm 62
Paul – I think the board focuses on getting listings up on Fridays, ready for the weekend. Sales are often low.
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April 9th, 2010 at 5:14 pm 63
@chip
Is that a $7000 per month mortgage payment or a $700K mortgage?
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April 9th, 2010 at 5:34 pm 64
My partner and I each make 6 figures plus. Been renting for the last several years. Other than the yearly exercise of finding a new place and getting more value for money, I'm glad I stayed out of the renting game. I love looking at examples of high end places that I may one day by, yet are bleeding money at the moment.
Examples of price softness already:
MLS V807210
Bought May 2008 for $1,799,900
Selling today for $1,385,000
I'll buy when it's 50% off. Or not, as I'm sure I'll be spoiled for choice.
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April 9th, 2010 at 5:36 pm 65
Whoops, meant "stayed out of the owning game", not "stayed out of the renting game"…
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April 9th, 2010 at 6:25 pm 66
Boring but still bearish
May be about done for the day. Nothing happening.
Listings 300
Price changes 104
Sales 75 – Rush of sales? Not this week.
14,381 for total inventory. Perhaps a 16k shindig next week?
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April 9th, 2010 at 6:32 pm 67
@paulb: ?? 14?
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April 9th, 2010 at 6:35 pm 68
Question for Inventory, PaulB or anyone who is well informed of the REBGV's statistics:
There are A LOT of new presales and new already built places (see Olympic village) being released to the public in the upcoming weeks.
MY question: when are those units entered into the board? for example, if this weekend on saturday there is a new condo presale opening to the public with 150 units, does that 150 units get entered in on saturday? Or do they enter it into the REBGV when the building is completed?
Check it out: http://twitter.com/AllAboutCondos <- look at the amount of new places that are going to floor the market! Don't you think the developers know something? The exit is looking small.
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April 9th, 2010 at 6:37 pm 69
Question for Inventory, PaulB or anyone who is well informed of the REBGV’s statistics:
There are A LOT of new presales and new already built places (see Olympic village) being released to the public in the upcoming weeks.
MY question: when are those units entered into the board? for example, if this weekend on saturday there is a new condo presale opening to the public with 150 units, does that 150 units get entered in on saturday? Or did they already enter it into the REBGV when the building was completed?
Check it out: http://twitter.com/AllAboutCondos <- look at the amount of new places that are going to floor the market! Don't you think the developers know something? The exit is looking small.
Thanks in advance!
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April 9th, 2010 at 6:39 pm 70
Hah oops, 15,397 almost ruined some weekends
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:12 pm 71
@Wanderlei:
Condo presales do not go through REBGV. Actually a condo presale is not a sale of RE (i.e. something with a land title). It's a contract for a future sale of RE, which does not go through REBGV either.
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:19 pm 72
So Paul is that 316 listing total for the day..
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:21 pm 73
The sneaking suspicion that the rebound is mostly smoke and mirrors has some validity, say economists, who like many ordinary Canadians also believe the bubble is about to be burst.
"The nagging feeling that is too good to be true, there's something to that," said CIBC economist Benjamin Tal.
Tal's consumer capability index suggests that the Canadian economy is running on steroids, namely government stimulus and record-low interest rates, and will start sputtering when the boost is removed. That's only a few months away, he says.
Canadian economic growth may be too strong to be for real
Stick a fork in this homewrecking bubble, where young couples have to sign their lives away….RTP
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:25 pm 74
Thank you Patriotz!
But that does mean that Olympic villages 200 units to be released will count towards inventory bc it's actually already built?
I understand the presale is just a contract now. That is some news – for example, in bby the jewel and affinity tower 2s both being released soon won't even count towards inventory – that's 300 + units
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:35 pm 75
The latest in the war between the Competition Bureau and the Realtards®.
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/09042010/2/biz…
TORONTO – The federal competition watchdog accused Canada's real estate industry Friday of threatening to ban brokers who attempt to offer a range of services from using its popular Multiple Listing Service.
The Competition Bureau's allegations came in its latest reply as part of its ongoing case against the Canadian Real Estate Association, the group that represents some 98,000 Canadian real estate brokers.
"In cases where small-scale entry by alternative business models has occurred, CREA and its members have disciplined such entrants, exploiting the barriers CREA has erected through its rule-making and rule-enforcing powers," it said.
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April 9th, 2010 at 7:45 pm 76
Once a condo completes and most people have taken occupancy, the developer may choose to list the remaining units on the MLS. By listing they agree to pay the usual fees (1K to the MLS, at least some buyers agent commission). If they go the display suite way, the developer controls his agent fees. For big projects like the Olympic Village, the developer may not put the units on the MLS – the additional advertising of an MLS listing may not be worth the loss in fees.
Yes, there is a large shadow inventory above and beyond 15K.
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April 9th, 2010 at 8:07 pm 77
8:07pm April 9,2010
************* 1/1/2010 / 4/9/2010 / % change
Bowen Isld 46 / 104 / 126.09%
_Bby East 68 / 150 / 120.59%
_Bby North 345 / 662 / 91.88%
Bby South 362 / 656 / 81.22%
Coquitlam 531 / 1038 / 95.48%
Van.&Gulf 215 / 252 / 17.21%
___Ladner 65 / 145 / 123.08%
MapleRidge 575 / 934 / 62.43%
_New West 262 / 557 / 112.60%
_North Van. 412 / 859 / 108.50%
OutofTown 105 / 74 / -29.52%
_Pitt Mead 121 / 191 / 57.85%
_Port Coq. 237 / 438 / 84.81%
PortMoody 213 / 400 / 87.79%
_Richmond 893 / 1692 / 89.47%
_Squamish 402 / 489 / 21.64%
Sunshine C. 656 / 1032 / 57.32%
_Tsawssen 98 / 162 / 65.31%
__Van East 767 / 1277 / 66.49%
_Van West 1396 / 2935 / 110.24%
_West Van 386 / 622 / 61.14%
__Whistler 569 / 728 / 27.94%
_____Total 8724 / 15397 / 76.49%
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April 9th, 2010 at 8:58 pm 78
Great 15k party guys! Inventory, if I see you in a pub someday, I owe you a beer!
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:04 pm 79
@Furlong is Paranoid:
Time to panic and buy gold! After all, the price can only go up!
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au968-999.gif
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:14 pm 80
Mike Stewart was on Global tonight, reminding us to get in the market quickly, as prices will only rise etc.etc. I hope to beat Kite to the Moon to the T.V. Towers tomorrow to get my bid in, just to be safe I'll overbid by 20%. Wish me luck!
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:18 pm 81
Mike Stewart is an asshole of gargantuan proportion.
He may possibly be the illegitimate son of Ozzie Jurock.
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:22 pm 82
Mike Steward=Kite to Moon
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:27 pm 83
Sales on week ending
(Jan 10,2010) 370 (April 09,2010) 772 % change 108%
Listings
(Jan)8724 / (April 09,2010)15397 % change 76.49%
Once again in Vancouver more listings mean more sales that always lead to more prices.
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:32 pm 84
Thank you for the information guys. One more question in relation to my first.
As I understand, presale units aren't counted towards the inventory bc they are "contracts" of sale or are not listed on the mls.
How about presale sales? Are those sales counted at all in our rebgv count? Or just like the presale in inventory, is it simply not counted?
With that big shadow of inventory more than 15k due to presale units available – every presale sold takes another buyer
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:32 pm 85
Thank you for the information guys. One more question in relation to my first.
As I understand, presale units aren't counted towards the inventory bc they are "contracts" of sale or are not listed on the mls.
How about presale sales? Are those sales counted at all in our rebgv count? Or just like the presale in inventory, is it simply not counted?
With that big shadow of inventory more than 15k due to presale units available – every presale sold also takes another buyer
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April 9th, 2010 at 9:53 pm 86
Wanderlei,
Any list that does not sell through mls system gets into other category like sales by owners and developers.There is no individual data available,I believe year end total number of sales calculated by Bcrea include those non mls source into total numbers of sales from other category,however,they won't utter a word regarding individual numbers out of mls system.
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April 9th, 2010 at 10:38 pm 87
Article on Rental Vacancies in Victoria
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Vacancy+sig…
"Vacancies have been creeping up for months, going from a rock-bottom 0.5 per cent a year ago to 1.5 per cent last fall and now, in some buildings, up to 10 per cent."
"It has all added up to rent reductions as landlords try to reduce turnover."
"But reductions are expected to come to a halt…"Landlords will have increased expenses because of the HST and there will be pressure to increase revenue," said Brown. "Rents will go up to cover the costs, and keep going up."
Love the logic!
Dropping demand -> Incr vacancies -> Dropping rents.
Now suddenly, because landlords have increasing costs, they expect to magically be able to hand these on to non-existent tenants.
Could get ugly.
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April 9th, 2010 at 10:43 pm 88
You all have bear flu. I've figured it out. You all have bear flu which explains why you're all stark raving mad. Vancouver real estate never go down. Been going up since Captain Vancouver sailed into town bears. It started with the longhouses and now it's the condos bears. Everyone wants to live here since Vancouver sailed here.
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:17 pm 89
With listings shooting up and sales not keeping up, I think we will see more than 17,000 total listings end of April with still 15 business days to go. We just need to average 114 more listings over sales a day. I bet kite will not reach the moon but will fall down towards the center of the earth. Another good day for the bears and pitiful renters like me with cash in stocks and fixed income investments.
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April 9th, 2010 at 11:27 pm 90
Thankfully the listing numbers are going up, that might mean a few sales for the newbie real estate agents like Simon Coutts who I've noticed has quit fixing bicycle flats and now has taken that vast knowledge into the real estate field. What's next? Remember the old adage that when your cabbie suggests a stock, it's time to sell.
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April 10th, 2010 at 12:13 am 91
nice catch, kaiser solce.
Simon Coutts , what a douche. From bike repairman (http://www.simonsbikeshop.com/) to real estate scammer (http://www.simoncoutts.com/about_simon.htm). Suckaaaaa.
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April 10th, 2010 at 3:39 am 92
@Wanderlei:
No, A presale "sale" is an assignment of a contract. Again, it is not a sale of RE, and only sales of RE go through REBGV.
But as noted above, there is no requirement for any seller of RE to go through REBGV. They are a listing service only.
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April 10th, 2010 at 8:18 am 93
"Mike Stewart was on Global tonight, reminding us to get in the market quickly, as prices will only rise etc.etc."
I saw him, too. He was breathless with excitement. Disgusting.
I phoned the Global Newsroom and gave them hell.
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April 10th, 2010 at 9:21 am 94
Ly,
The daily listing topped off thursday with 522 listing,Friday's listing shot down to 300 is type of game over in term to further expectations.Sales numbers in four bussiness days at 772 are enough for the week compare to 648 sales last week to change the game week after week.
Reknab,
Actual lists are at 176 and 75 sales(176/75),total april 8 221 /April 9 397= 176/75 .
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April 10th, 2010 at 9:25 am 95
"I phoned the Global Newsroom and gave them hell."
Boom, Please don't do that. Let the pimps recruit every last one of the fools.
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April 10th, 2010 at 9:27 am 96
Good old mikestewartrealtor. Pop over to Real Estate Talks to see him in action. There will always be guys like this around; it's whether or not you let them get to you.
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April 10th, 2010 at 9:47 am 97
@Keeping an Eye on The Pimps:
Every person who buys high now is someone who won't be able to buy low later.
Remember that.
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April 10th, 2010 at 9:57 am 98
Has anyone been out looking at rental properties lately? My wife and I are looking for a bigger rental nearby so we can have another child. Just wondering if anyone has noticed any of these:
- the quality of tenants
- larger or smaller number of tenants looking to rent
- changes in value of rental units to cost
- actual rental rate to asking rate
Would be much appreciated if anyone has anything to offer, so we can better gauge things.
BTW the Times Colonist article was a laugh. Landlord to tenant 'my costs have gone up, so I'm going to have to increase your rent', tenant 'well my costs have gone up too because of HST/taxes etc, so I was going to ask for a drop in rent' Insta-stalemate!
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April 10th, 2010 at 9:57 am 99
Ozzie Jurock was just on CKNW's Money Show. He's pumping real estate in Edmonton because he's at some "condo show" there. Although he didn't actually say it, he may as well have admitted Vancouver prices are bubilicious.
He stated average prices in Edmonton were about 1/3 Vancouver's. Mike Campbell then said word to the effect of "yes, but you can't rent your condo for as much in Edmonton as you can in Vancouver." OJ then said, "no, rents in Edmonton are ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER."
A third of the purchase price with only marginally lower rents…
Enough said.
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April 10th, 2010 at 10:12 am 100
#16 Debt is Invisible on 04.09.10 at 11:01 pm
Let’s not get too excited here people. I have a well placed source in Ottawa who tells me that the the government is working on a new plan to keep the bubble happnin’. This new program would allow homeowners to get a tax credit on the interest they pay on their mortgages as long as they put it in their rrsp. This will keep the bubble inflated and since 70% of Canadians do not have a pension plan it would solve that dilemma too. Rabbits, rabbits, rabbits…….Buy now or be priced out forever!!!!!
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April 10th, 2010 at 10:17 am 101
@spitfires: Some tips; Check the landlords credit rating, many are not solvent and are looking for someone to make their payments, they may say the place is not for sale but if they are not making all there payments regularly then assume it will be for sale.Assign a penalty to furnished unless you want furnished. Don't worry about no pets just say I have a pet(if you do) take it or leave it!
If the place is for sale ask for 30% discount off similar places. It's a tenants market! The number of vacancies far outstrips the number of renters. Remember "official vacancy rate" has nothing to do with any thing other then buildings that are 100% rentals. If you're going to rent a house suite always make sure YOU are the one with control of the heating, make sure the OWNER does not have access to the thermostat, if you are utility sharing! Good luck everything is on your side!
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April 10th, 2010 at 10:45 am 102
@Strataman:
Good idea, but you can't check someone's credit rating without their authorization.
This is not as pressing an issue as it is south of the border, because tenancy rights are not affected by foreclosures in BC. And since the bank can't move into the house, a foreclosure is actually better than having the property sold to someone who can kick you out to move in. In the 81-82 bust it became common for banks to pay the tenants just to get them to leave and I would think this will become common again.
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April 10th, 2010 at 10:47 am 103
@Anonymous: 100
"This new program would allow homeowners to get a tax credit on the interest they pay on their mortgages as long as they put it in their rrsp."
I guess you don't realize that there is already a tax refund for contributing to your RRSP and Canadians still don't use them:
"One in four don't contribute to RRSPs at all, 28% will contribute less, ING finds"
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/wealthyb…
Besides, who's got room to contribute to an RRSP when more than 70% of household income goes to paying a mortgage (30% is left for kraft dinner and bus fare):
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf
Thanks for the warning though I'm on my way to buy several presales right now. Can't wait to rent them out for thousands less than my carrying costs!
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April 10th, 2010 at 11:01 am 104
@Anonymous: ??? won't this screw up RRSP withdrawals for first-time buyers?
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April 10th, 2010 at 11:01 am 105
@patriotz: Good idea, but you can’t check someone’s credit rating without their authorization.
That is true should have clarified if they want yours say yes and I want yours. Couple of reasons that are not foreclosure oriented.Poor land lord credit rating indicates they will likely use every excuse in the book why they haven't got around to fixing the …toilet…door…light…you name it. Remember when they phone for a service contractor if they are restricted to hiring their cousin because no PLUMBER will work for them…nuf said. Second when your looking a lot of landlords will check you're credit (with you're permission form)yet you are not even top of the list! This effects you're credit rating thru inquires. So I would tell them after they fill out the permission form "I won't check yours if yah don't check mine" in another words "you better be serious". No landlord who is intent on renting to you would have a problem with this unless…..fill in the blanks. Also you can ask THEM to download their credit rating for you and print it. (As can you which is the best way…no inquiries). Never meant my suggestion to apply to foreclosures as you will know those the rent will be TOO cheap!:-)
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April 10th, 2010 at 11:11 am 106
@Anonymous: Seem like this would be a very expensive program just to reward home ownership, even if the money is restricted to go into rrsp. It would increase our deficit significantly through loss of tax revenue, and would precipitate a us style housing crash quicker though accelerated housing asset inflation.
To delay the coming downturn, it is in fact better to decelerate the pace of re price appreciation so it doesn't grow faster than inflation, hence the recent cmhc rule changes. This is because the quicker we hit the edge of the cliff, the harder the effect of the crash will be and the bigger the chance we will overshoot and below fundamental values.
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April 10th, 2010 at 11:29 am 107
holy shit, ignore the anon troll, that guy is laughing at you guys who are actually seriously thinking about that retarded tax credit/RRSP BS.
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April 10th, 2010 at 11:35 am 108
@Anonymous:
In order to have a mortgage of $X in your RRSP, you have to have $X in your RRSP to start with, to buy the mortgage. In other words virtually nobody would be able to take advantage of such a scheme except the rich. Thus the Cons, should they try to bring in such a thing, would bring a huge amount of criticism on themselves, increase the deficit, and make no impact on the housing market anyway.
Not going to happen.
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April 10th, 2010 at 11:51 am 109
@Strataman: If you’re going to rent a house suite always make sure YOU are the one with control of the heating, make sure the OWNER does not have access to the thermostat,
Speaking of clarifying, if you rent a basement suite or other level suite and you do not have an independent heating circuit such as electric baseboards you should not share the utility costs. The person with the thermostat (most forced air houses is the main floor)should bear the total cost of utilities. Owners will often assign 30% of the utilities to a basement suite, who will generally be uncomfortable …heat rises you know. Basement suite without independent heating circuit = 0 % utilities..always!
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April 10th, 2010 at 12:18 pm 110
Spitfires concerns about rents are well founded. I rent a house and consider myself to be beyond a model tenant. In the past i've assisted the landlord with basic repairs and often my handyman father-in-law has helped me fix the toilet, seal the bath etc.
I've saved my landlord lots of annoying call outs to the house etc etc. I pay the rent on time. Neighbours have no issues etc. Recently the landlord was required by the city to make some electrical improvements to bring the electrical up to code. Immediately he started suggesting that because this was a cost to him, he'd have to increase my rent! The rise is relatively small,however, it is irritating after the costs i've saved him over the past 2 years. My "helping out" has now come to an abrupt end.
Why don't i just move? Well, i checked Craigslist and i have a decent deal – not a steal, but a decent price. I have a partner and one child with one on the way. The thought of moving a pregnant missus and all our accummulated junk is just not worth the rent increase ($100/month). I'm just pissed about the landlord's attuitude.
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April 10th, 2010 at 12:24 pm 111
Great weather, big selection of homes to buy, post games high and close to the April 19th deadline. Are we going to see a big big weekend of sales?
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April 10th, 2010 at 12:37 pm 112
hey paulb
any listings today? pls pls tell me yes. hehehehe
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April 10th, 2010 at 12:49 pm 113
@Strataman: These look like good tips, It might be worth putting these all into one post and having it as a topic on the blog some time. I appreciate the advice from someone with experience, thanks!
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April 10th, 2010 at 12:51 pm 114
@ulsterman: That's a drag, sounds like its time to stop treating the landlord like a friend. It's only reasonable to call them in to fix stuff now rather than taking care of it yourself. Also they can only legally raise the rent by 4% right?
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April 10th, 2010 at 1:52 pm 115
I mentioned this a few weeks back…about some family members who finally sold their leasehold condo in Burnaby and bought a SFH in the Ridge Meadows area. The spread is over $100,000.
While I had to congratulate them….deep down I think they bought at the peak with rising interest rates. BAD!
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April 10th, 2010 at 1:56 pm 116
This is April…the RE season should be heating up. I see it flatlining.
Re Renters:
From the discussions, I can foresee a lot of landlords wanting to cash out and many renters having to seek accomodations elsewhere. It ain't that hard to evict tenants…
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April 10th, 2010 at 2:45 pm 117
@patriotz: "tenancy rights are not affected by foreclosures in BC"
The issue is whether or not the landlord will be around to take care of maintenance and administrative issues. A renter is almost always paying a premium for someone else to tend part of the property. If the landlord is unwilling or unable to do this, it's relevant.
I just don't see how asking for a credit check from a landlord is going to fly. There are so many amateur landlords around who feel an air of superiority over renters they'll let their pride get in the way. Beyond this, it's impractical. I would think that various applicants doing a credit check on you alters your credit score, or am I wrong?
Even with rents being relatively soft, asking even for references makes most landlords take a step back. Since they usually get dozens of applicants for a property they'll probably just throw your application in the bin unless you are obviously better than the others. IMO the best tactic to take is to use the lack of references as a reason for a rent reduction when they decide you're the right tenant for them. Use some excuse like your previous landlord looked good but turned out to be dishonest and you're feeling uncertain. If they refuse just ask what they're hiding.
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April 10th, 2010 at 2:47 pm 118
#49 MM The main reason for the establishment of a retail business fron is to launder the drug money through the reciepts of the business. Many of those 'hairdressers, nail shops and collector sword stores are claiming income of hundreds of thousands of dollars each and every month. Funny how you never see a single customer in a lot of them eh? You'd think REV CAN would twig into this phenomena but instead the governmenent turns a blind eye to immigrant crime. Its all part of the 'sustainable development project' to bring immigrants 'up to the same economic level'as those bleary eyed Canadian workers you describe. Tntire system is corrupt from top to bottom. Its called being 'pollitically correct' and feeling guilty for having been born here and not in some third world shit hole.
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April 10th, 2010 at 2:47 pm 119
@NO – LYMPICS:
You think sales are going to go up during a bust? I don't.
The landlords that the people on this forum know aren't typical, any more than we are typical.
Sure the logical thing to do is to sell now, but if landlords were logical, they wouldn't be landlords today in the first place. Most of them will just think this bust is a dip like in 2008 and wait for the upturn. And wait. And wait.
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April 10th, 2010 at 2:55 pm 120
Jestin says interest rates are going to explode. Not just augment measurably. But swell like a gland on a July beach night. Within a year, the current central bank rate of one quarter of one per cent will inflate to 3% – a raucous 2.75% eruption taking the prime at the banks to 5% and lubricating VRMs along with it.
Said Warren: “Output growth around the world continues to gain momentum, underpinned by very accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, the gradual re-opening of credit taps, and the strong cyclical upswing in inventory restocking. Nevertheless, the renewed upward trend in borrowing costs, emerging fiscal restraint, household deleveraging in many over-indebted countries, restructuring in a number of key industries, and the re-regulation of the financial sector should contribute to a more moderate growth performance in 2011.”
If that doesn’t leave you panting, check your pants. Something fell off.
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April 10th, 2010 at 3:02 pm 121
@jesse: If that's the case then, on the flip-side, no landlord that cares to tell you what to do. You could get that big dog, paint your rooms every colour of the rainbow, and plant whatever you want wherever you want. I assume the bank would still have to pay for whats required in the lease.
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April 10th, 2010 at 3:03 pm 122
@ulsterman: "My “helping out” has now come to an abrupt end. "
This is akin to asking for a raise from your employer. Unless they think you are serious about leaving and they want to keep you, there will be little incentive for them to give you more money.
It could be the landlord really has no choice. He could be losing money. This rent increase is actually a form of deflation: the only way to improve cash flow is to take on more risk by removing goodwill or by taking a chance on a less creditworthy tenant. In the end, it's unlikely his net cash flow will have changed for the better.
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April 10th, 2010 at 3:08 pm 123
#119
patriotz:
There are "landlords" and their are landlords.
Their are some landlords whose rental stock is paid for, and acts as a source of income. There are others which bought in the euphoria and are probably one bounced tenant cheque away from foreclosure.
IMHO, the RE market is best summarized as the developers milking the CHMC to the last drop before the collapse. Look at today's Vancouver Sun which critiques the business community which has dipped into the Gov't trough with energy projects etc. as opposed to stand alone entrepeneurship.
The COV Olympic Village will be the one to watch, that will be a canary in the mine on the local RE market.
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April 10th, 2010 at 3:16 pm 124
#118 realpaul
I agree….BC's economy is very dependent on money laundering. Many of the places you described are bereft of clientele, how can they pay the rent and stay in business ?
Why do you think they got rid of the Ports Police ?
Gov't etc probably knows what is going on but will turn a blind eye other than some token crack down.
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April 10th, 2010 at 3:35 pm 125
9 list
2 price changes
0 sales
lol, there ya go
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April 10th, 2010 at 4:18 pm 126
thanks paul. the best part is that there is no sales. that means no pending sales unlike suggested by mike stewart on RET. but when did we expect any honesty from him. You have a good one.
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April 10th, 2010 at 4:20 pm 127
There are so many people mention about Apr 19 dead line. However, since the "sold" date reported by real estate agency is the date the contract is signed. Most of the time, the closing date is a few weeks behind. I think CMHC only cares about the closing date. The market is already slowed down now, the dead line is already passed for most buyers.
Next week should be much worse than this week.
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April 10th, 2010 at 5:21 pm 128
Mike Stewart sounds like a chump I would never even think of using that guy as a realtor. Any one using scare tactics for the largest purchase of your life should be avoided. Might as well use Bill Good as your agent. I expect integrity and intellect from my real estate professional and won't accept anything less. Buy now or be priced out forever is neither.
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April 10th, 2010 at 5:50 pm 129
@Disbelief:
Realtors are paid by, and therefore work in the interests of, sellers only.
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April 10th, 2010 at 6:35 pm 130
Pope, just a website/service question: any chance you can allow the option to view ALL comments directly from the main page? It is really annoying to have to open the first 50 and then select ALL.
And< I am not sure whether it is only for me, but doesn't it take a long time to load all comments? Would there be an easier/faster way to read them?
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April 10th, 2010 at 8:22 pm 131
looks like they just broke ground on the Maynards development.
I wonder if they'll finish it?
http://www.maynardsblock.com/
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April 10th, 2010 at 10:57 pm 132
good night all the same bears – have a good dream of owning vancouver RE.
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April 10th, 2010 at 11:14 pm 133
Owning is a dream but paying for it for 35-40 years or worse walking away with nothing is a nightmare.
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April 10th, 2010 at 11:34 pm 134
@Strataman:
The person with the thermostat (most forced air houses is the main floor)should bear the total cost of utilities. Owners will often assign 30% of the utilities to a basement suite, who will generally be uncomfortable …heat rises you know. Basement suite without independent heating circuit = 0 % utilities..always!
So, why wouldn't you just plug a heater in?
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April 10th, 2010 at 11:51 pm 135
#132 said: good night all the same bears – have a good dream of owning vancouver RE.
reply: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPAM4bYISNg
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April 11th, 2010 at 12:16 am 136
"in the months ahead when the shine is off the apple, with listings sitting for months, I suspect we’ll be hearing different stories in the paper and on TV."
http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/eggs/#mo…
comment by yattermatters
Can we track the FSO inventory?
For example:
http://bcforsalebyowner.com/city/Vancouver/
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April 11th, 2010 at 4:10 am 137
Shiller: Don’t Bet the Farm on US Housing Recovery
US house prices, on average, are now 1/2 what they are in Canada.
- Rober Shiller, 2005
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April 11th, 2010 at 8:43 am 138
http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/silver+lining+…
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April 11th, 2010 at 9:15 am 139
@Anonymous:
From above:
In other words, instead of taking their winnings off the table, the boomers are doubling up, and are going to lose it all.
"Welcome to Wal-Mart"
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April 11th, 2010 at 9:33 am 140
@ulsterman: That's weird man my landlord just gave me another rent reduction! Third time this month.
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April 11th, 2010 at 9:33 am 141
Consumers in U.S. Face the End of an Era of Cheap Credit
And where do you think Vancouver places in the debt derby?
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April 11th, 2010 at 10:05 am 142
@jesse: Since they usually get dozens of applicants for a property they’ll probably just throw your application in the bin "
Available NOW indicates NO applicants not dozens of applicants. And there are about 30 to 40 % available now ie VACANT! Renters/tenants market!
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April 11th, 2010 at 10:07 am 143
If Shiller is right there will be blood in the streets and the discussion of real estate will be equal to a dirty diaper. I was chatting with a realtor last week and foreclosures came up and he said that the banks here wouldn't sell for any less than market value. Which is really a stupid statement beacause when they are flooded with foreclosures they will take what they can get. He said the foreclosures right now are being held until they can sell them for max regardless of how long it takes 30, 60, 90 days. I will bet this will change once the price starts to decline.
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April 11th, 2010 at 10:15 am 144
@Disbelief:
Taking what you can get is the definition of market value.
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April 11th, 2010 at 10:21 am 145
British Columbians Selling & Moving To The US – “It was just too good of an opportunity to turn down.”
Stills and quotes from the CTV News clip, 9 Apr 2010 -
http://wp.me/pcq1o-If
For many owners, home prices have reached such high levels that cashing out becomes a life-changing proposition. Some act on this; many don't. Of those who don't sell now, a good number will try to do so once prices start dropping. It is particularly painful to see what was once a 'home run' becoming a 'single', and then, perhaps even a 'strike-out'. These sellers will add to supply as the market falls. -vreaa
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April 11th, 2010 at 10:45 am 146
@domus: any chance you can allow the option to view ALL comments directly from the main page?
Your second question was why I set up the multi-page option. Increased readers means more demand on the server, and once we get 100 or so comments it takes a while to load them up. Basically I need to sit down and do some trouble-shooting/ optimizing to speed this up.
In the short term, this may address your first question. I just changed the links from the main page. If you click on the orange box with the number of comments you get the 1st page of comments, if you click on the story title you get all the comments in reverse order.
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April 11th, 2010 at 10:55 am 147
reverse order is great!
thanks.
Sales still strong, pre-approvals/locked in rates/April 19th…HST…rising rates (rush to entrance) will keep things supported for another month or two….
but – the writing is on the wall.
I see us at 16,000 in the next couple of weeks, and pushing to 17,000 by mid May…
We are now, today, at a 12 month high in listings. check out the charts by agentwill…..sales year over year are going to start looking fucking ugly in May….its on its way.
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April 11th, 2010 at 11:15 am 148
Thanks. It helps.
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April 11th, 2010 at 11:29 am 149
Me,
246+594/666
Agents stats shows listing gain at only 594 listings sales at 666 sales.What about 2000 listing down under? It is a junk of trash can when listing fire burn after sales.It also prove one more fact and that is "when it comes to provide factual data even board can't cheat with bears on the blogs".Trash can is most likely made of tripple count after expiry,reduction and increase in prices.
Results:Run Buddy Run.
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April 11th, 2010 at 12:11 pm 150
Thanks for all the work regarding formatting efficiency, Pope.
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April 11th, 2010 at 12:19 pm 151
Thanks for all the renting replies everyone. ulsterman I can completely sympathize with you about not wanting to fix things up for the landlord anymore, that describes my situation exactly.
Well, we went and looked at 4 houses yesterday and here's what we saw:
1. The tenants were doing the showing as they were 'helping the landlord out' because they had bought a house with a variable rate mortgage out in Agazzis. The only other potential tenants there was a very young couple. Not the place for us though, so we left.
2. When we showed up at the house, the grass was very long, outside of house was needing maintenance, and the shower had rot and mold all around it. Current tenants had a lot of medical equipment including a huge oxygen machine, maybe the immigrant family looking at the place won't notice. Buhbye.
3. Landlord didn't show up for our appointment, so we left after 15 minutes. Sounded like a nice place, nice neighbor chatted with us, but the downstairs tenant had a boat repair business going on in the backyard, so chemicals, sawdust, etc were everywhere.
4. Last place, current tenant was trying to get out of 1 year lease as he was moving out of town to for a job. Nice place, but not enough space for us. No other people came by to look in the time we were there, and it looked like we woke the guy up from nap.
We'll go looking again in a few weeks, but I found it interesting that 2 of the 4 places we looked at the tenants were leaving town, and that there wasn't any other quality looking tenants showing up at the viewings. Sharp contrast to years past where we had to really sell ourselves to get the places we wanted.
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April 11th, 2010 at 12:47 pm 152
Walked past a 'newspaper box' pf Mtetro papers saying that million dollar homes are the norm. Have heard recently that 'people in the 3 to 4 hundred K range are 'moving up'.
lets examine this.
Inflation in milk cheese meat gasoline and everything else including RE has been raging at 20% per annum for the last 5 years. Anyone who hasn't noticed this is living in Moms basement and need think no further.
This is not a local phenom it is also proving up as we see the CDN dollar up 20% against the USD and import prices are still accelerating, the opposite of what should be taking place.
So, is the RE market at $1 million? No way says I. The value of a dollar has gone down and its all smoke and mirrors by the government to induce a sense of false prosperity into the mindset of the consumer to increase borrowing (bank profits) and take on unsustainable debt (essential to instlling fear and dependance on government programs).
If I'm right and my experiance at the grocery store and watching my RE assesments grow then $1 million is really a very quickly inflated 1/2 million and the wealth effect is not actual money it's virtual.
You'd think everyone would be feeling rich with all these freshly minted millionaires in the ghettos of Vancouver parellel dimensions along Kingsway and the south slopes where virtual immigrant no go zones preclude any balanced market. So why is personal NON Mortgage DEBT growing at such an astronomical rate? Really makes me wonder.
I buy treeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, my huzba buy treeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Canada free money soooooo gooooooooood.
RE should now be categorized as entertainment and removed from the balance sheet all together as it has been in the US where people have woken up from the ugly dream and seen that the emporer has no clothes. Remember guys "a three year mortgage term doth not a market make". I think thats was Shelly or Byron Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaahaha.
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April 11th, 2010 at 2:45 pm 153
Article in the Financial Post: Subprime Mortgages Alive Here
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.h…
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April 11th, 2010 at 3:00 pm 154
@Summer:
Something isn't being told in this story. Why can't this couple get a conventional mortgage on a 100K house? The husband has a bankruptcy, but the wife should qualify on her income alone. The payments would only be about $400/month.
BTW go to mls.ca and take a look at the houses in Chatham. You can actually make money being a landlord there. Here's a $50,000 house that rents for $550/month:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…
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April 11th, 2010 at 3:02 pm 155
@Summer: "Industry insiders say that over the next few years the Marentettes' story will play out over and over again across Canada, as an estimated 30,000 so-called "orphan mortgages" reach maturity. Unless the government takes action, this may trigger a flood of foreclosures."
— LOL government has no room to act. They have a big enough problem with CMHC mortgages. Some people are going to learn the meaning of YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN.
"In the wake of the financial crisis, the business of subprime loans has dried up. Prior to 2007, there were at least a dozen subprime lenders in Canada and it was the fastest-growing sector of the entire mortgage market, says Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, who pegged it at about 5% of the total market."
— There you go, 5%. Probably more like 10-20% in the Lower Mainland. Some people have to suffer for their decisions, that's just the way it is and should be.
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April 11th, 2010 at 3:13 pm 156
@Patriotz
The point of posting the link to the article was for the sake of those who say there was NO risky lending in Canada. The article may have focused on one couple in one area of Canada but no doubt there were other such loans made elsewhere in Canada. As Anonymous @ 3:02 says, who knows how many were made in Vancouver. People here it seems have been more willing than elsewhere in Canada to do just about anything to get into a home.
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April 11th, 2010 at 3:28 pm 157
@Summer:
If so that's missing the point. What makes a mortgage loan risky is if the amount is out of proportion to the rental value of the house or the borrower's income, not whether you call it "suprime" or not.
The loan in that story was far less risky than EVERY mortgage loan in Vancouver. The difference is the the taxpayers aren't holding the bag on it, thus the lender has been forced to call the balance.
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April 11th, 2010 at 3:41 pm 158
From that FP article…
But the industry is so concerned about the situation that it recently approached the federal government with a request for a bailout.
Yeah, here they go…no shame…after running up the market and everyone making money along the way. Now they want the taxpayer to fork out. They can shove it up their….
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April 11th, 2010 at 4:58 pm 159
Further comment on that FP article:
Notice how the story starts out with a very (admittedly) sad story about worsening health and bankruptcy…..but how about writing a sad story about responsible tax paying young families who chose to save and got left behind in a crazy market fueled by monetary policy madness. Where is their "bailout"?
Australia’s central bank governor Glenn Stevens:
Stevens said last week that Australian house prices are “getting too high,” signaling he wants to minimize the danger of a housing boom and bust in the aftermath of the U.S. example.
Australia’s Stevens Raises Key Interest Rate to 4.25%
I'm encouraged by the ACB though….I guess some central banks manage to have interventionist policy!
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April 11th, 2010 at 5:04 pm 160
@ReadyToPop:
All central banks have an interventionist policy. That's what they're for.
The difference is in how they choose to intervene.
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April 11th, 2010 at 6:40 pm 161
From the abovementioned article:
"The Canadian population wanted to buy a home, that was the No. 1 goal.
People were taking on high debt loads, stretching the amortization out as long as possible and lenders were looking at all the opportunities. It made sense when the market was hot, but of course, no one could foresee the problems."
————————
I have so many remarks about this article I am afraid I will drain all the words from the internet!
But I will not bore you with ALL my remarks, let's select 3 or 4…
1. It's a bit too early to say "The Canadian population wanted to buy a home". It's still happening, how can you refer to it in past tense? The horses are still escaping, right now, yes.
2. This article is about 100,000 mortgage, pfftt…
Here in Vancouver, we have 150,000 dollars being just the difference between asking and going. Bidding wars where "we" pay 100k over asking are all too common! Can you imaging the pain on 1000000 (one million) dollar mortgages?
3. "but of course, no one could foresee the problems", Aaargh, hello, over here! Plenty of people could forsee the problems. WE ARE STILL FORESEEING THEM! THEY KEEP A-COMING!
This insane RE market is a huge mental-institution inside a madhouse built in a psychiatric hospital surrounded by a lunatic asylum!
Regards
arit
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April 11th, 2010 at 6:50 pm 162
@arit: This insane RE market is a huge mental-institution inside a madhouse built in a psychiatric hospital surrounded by a lunatic asylum!
I was out bike riding at Colony Farms was looking at the restricted area and thinking it's not big enough!
Best comment by far Arit!
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April 11th, 2010 at 9:12 pm 163
Vancouver Metro Unemployment:
January 2009 = 4.9%
March 2010 = 7.8%
Source: BC Stats///Page 15
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/lfs/LFSdata.pdf
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April 11th, 2010 at 9:41 pm 164
another anecdote related to unemployment: my friend works for a Vancouver outplacement firm – they have never been so busy assisting with downsizing. Starting tomorrow, and going all week, they will be assisting with the lay-off of 300 professionals from one company at various offices throughout town. I wasn't told more details due to confidentiality, but was told that it will probably be in the news.
Apparently this is just one big downsizing job of many to come that have been booked for the next few months.
It is pretty scary, and it all just makes me very relieved to be a debt-free renter of a nice kits apt ($900 total monthly living costs) with a big emergency fund.
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