Friday April 16th Free-for-all

Well, it’s the last weekend before the new CMHC rules come into effect, anyone out there going to any open houses?  Lets do our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic economic discussion post.  Here are a few recent stories to kick things off:

Housing may have peaked
Home sellers rush to market in record numbers
Sharp increase in number of BC mortgages in arrears
Canadian sales, listings and prices all rise in March
House listings hit March Record
The big one: earthquake or RE market collapse?
Canada housing bubble: Its not different this time
Frustrated couples crackshack quiz targets million$ homes
Vancouver spent more than $550 million on winter games
James Chanos on Chinese real estate bubble.
US foreclosures surge, on pace for 1 million this year
S.E.C. accuses Goldman Sachs of fraud

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Gordon C.
Gordon C.
10 years ago

Are you even following the thread of this conversation. Do you even read this stuff, before you come out shooting at the hip.

You're a twit, not an appraiser.

paulb
10 years ago

Wow Gordon, got anything to say about that?

AACI
AACI
10 years ago

Gordon, For you to suggest that the cost approach is appropriate for the valuation of a typical strata property pretty much says it all. Go run that one by your mentor and see what they say.. if you are getting this information from your mentor, I am being totally honest when I say think about finding another. The "cost approach" included on a typical CRAL form is an afterthought and serves only to illustrate a general demarcation of land vs building for the bank underwriter and is almost never relied upon to determine value in the case of a detached property, let alone a strata interest. Further, I have never, even once in my life, seen anything resembling an income approach applied to a single-family property, even as a validation of the direct comparison approach. The only thing in question… Read more »

Gordon C.
Gordon C.
10 years ago

I am an appraiser and that is my real name. But, I do challenge whether you are what you imply. As an accredited appraiser would never try to muzzle an open and free discussion on real estate. And an accredited appraiser would NEVER use their professional designation as an acronym on a blog in an attempt to berate another appraiser because that is unprofessional.

Your taking pot shots from a concealed position. You're just a sniper.

AACI
AACI
10 years ago

Gordon C you state previously : "For valuing strata and single family homes, typically only two approaches are used. The market approach as briefly explained above and the cost approach which I hope is self explanatory. A third approach known as the Income Approach is rarely used on homes, and if it is, then only as a cross check to the final estimate. It is highly unlikely that you will find an appraiser concluding a value on a GRM or Price Earnings Ratio for a single family home or condominum. The body that governs appraisal practice in Canada, the Appraisal Institute of Canada, would likely consider disciplinary action against that appraiser for doing so." I usually welcome juniors into the profession with open arms but reading some of your thoughts in this thread, I must respond. I would suggest that… Read more »

No Insight
No Insight
10 years ago

Well, I posted this on PaulB's site but, of course, he deleted it. Maybe it will receive more respect over here. I'm trying to understand the appeal of PaulB in these circles. He was (WAS) a realtor locally here who decided it was just too rich for him and ran off to the East Coast where he could get his palace on the water for the same price as a crack shack here, right? Now, all of a sudden, he is back. Though he is not a realtor anymore and is instead going to school. So he comments on the market with ZERO insight as he is not in the field and so many here eat it up. Why? Seems to me he failed as a realtor here and I guess he failed as a realtor in the East. Gavin,… Read more »

patriotz
10 years ago

@Anonymous:

Indeed no correlation between house prices OR interest rate and rents:

http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/ResidentialRea

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

@Gordon C.: "Most landlords increase rents when their costs are going up not because house prices are going up. If they refinanced at a lower rate, their costs have gone down." Landlords raise rent when they think can get away with it. It has nothing to do with house prices, landlords expenses, or even what the tenants can afford. My landlord has faced increasing taxes, a new roof, and a new clothes drier in the last year, but has DECREASED our rent by almost five percent. Why? Because he was afraid we would move to get a better deal and he can't easily replace us with other quality tenants at this time. All the increases in costs are coming out of his pocket alone. And refinancing is not even a factor for those landlords who own outright or nearly so.… Read more »

rp
rp
10 years ago

300! w00t!

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[…] also looks like today will coincidentally be the day we get our 16,000th place put up for sale. Share RSS 2.0 comments feed. leave a response, or trackback from your own […]

patriotz
10 years ago

@Raincouver:

To be fair, Paul, probably most posters here aren’t looking at properties in excess of a mil.

Oh I think quite a few are looking. But when they get around to buying them they'll be paying a lot less than a mil.

VHB
VHB
10 years ago

Are you ready for the 16K party? Consider this your invitation.

Time: Maybe Monday, maybe Tuesday

Place: here

Attire: Come as you are, but come ready to PARTY!

Limey
Limey
10 years ago

Gordon C. I'm enjoying your perspective. It's good to mix up the discussions in here.

For shits and giggles, can I put you on the spot and ask you what your predictions are for the next 2 years? Give us a breakdown on how you think things will pan out.

It will be interesting to hear, especially on April 19th (Vancouver housing doomsday?)

jesse
10 years ago

@Gordon C.: "Rarely will a market go from 15 percent appreciation to a drop of 15 percent, unless an outside source, like government intervention, is corrupting the market."

I suppose I will have to agree that a swing from +15% appreciation to -15% appreciation in a few quarters is a rare occurrence. I admit, if I were an appraiser, I wouldn't know how to value a property under those conditions. I also admit I'm not an appraiser.

Gordon C.
Gordon C.
10 years ago

Wow! so many questions, so little time. Firstly, I don't have my own blog, if I did then I would know how to make those cool indents and italics. Although I do enjoy reading Garth and sometimes replying. When I'm saying watch the market, I'm saying that the market place has a momentum. Rarely will a market go from 15 percent appreciation to a drop of 15 percent, unless an outside source, like government intervention, is corrupting the market. So you will see the market go from 15 to 10 to 5 to 0 to -5 percent. Watched over a couple of months or quarters you will a good indication of where the market will be in 6 month or a year or two years from now. I don't understand the rental argument. That rents are tied to income and… Read more »

jesse
10 years ago

@VHB: There will be no knife catchers. We know how this played out for many in 2008 — developers renegotiated with balking presale buyers on the sly.

Here's another term to look up: "judgment proof". That lawyer in paulb's link can tell presale buyers all about it for what I'm sure is a reasonable fee compared to the alternative.

VHB
VHB
10 years ago

@paulb: WOW. For a 500K condo presale with a 15% deposit, before now you wouldn't need to bring any more cash to closing because you could just finance the rest. NOW, you'd have to bring $30K since they only finance 80%. MOREOVER, if the market price declines by 15%, you would have to bring $93K to the closing. So, Mr. specu-vestor says 'bring 93K to closing??? I'd rather just walk away from my 75K deposit.' Well, as we know from 2008/09, the developer can go after you for any difference between the contract price and the price the developer eventually gets from the knife-catcher who buys the stinking condo turd mess. Oh, baby. This will be so fun to watch . . . can't wait for the next CBC bleeding heart story about the 'hard done by' flippers . .… Read more »

Inventory
Inventory
10 years ago

Apr 1, 2010 = 14,667

Apr 6, 2010 = 14,832

Apr 7, 2010 = 14,915

Apr 8, 2010 = 15,221

Apr 9, 2010 = 15,399

Apr 12, 2010 = 15,462

Apr 13, 2010 = 15,595

Apr 14, 2010 = 15,779

Apr 15, 2010 = 15,858

Apr 16, 2010 = 15,822

Apr 17, 2010 = 15,924

April 19, 2010 = 16k??? Party!!!

Inventory
Inventory
10 years ago

The stats updated today. ************* 1/1/2010 / 4/18/2010 / % change Bowen Isld 46 / 105 / 128.26% _Bby East 68 / 152 / 123.53% _Bby North 345 / 732 / 112.17% Bby South 362 / 682 / 88.40% Coquitlam 531 / 1088 / 104.90% Van.&Gulf 215 / 262 / 21.86% ___Ladner 65 / 153 / 135.38% MapleRidge 575 / 965 / 67.83% _New West 262 / 567 / 116.41% _North Van. 412 / 899 / 118.20% OutofTown 105 / 74 / -29.52% _Pitt Mead 121 / 191 / 57.85% _Port Coq. 237 / 440 / 85.65% PortMoody 213 / 422 / 98.12% _Richmond 893 / 1717 / 92.27% _Squamish 402 / 489 / 21.64% Sunshine C. 656 / 1019 / 55.34% _Tsawssen 98 / 182 / 85.71% __Van East 767 / 1348 / 75.75% _Van West 1396 / 3055… Read more »

Rob Chimpman
Rob Chimpman
10 years ago

Holly toledo Gordon C! there is an old Arab saying along the lines that those who do tend other people's sheep, tend to lose their own flock.

Why bother with this blog. You have yours. Are you tired of the MLS argument?

buff_butler
buff_butler
10 years ago

@Gordon C.: This wasn't the goal of the post. I realise I worded it poorly, sorry.

Also, to give credit where credit is due; I didn't know about holding your own mortgage in an rrsp:

http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/holding-a-mor

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
10 years ago

@paulb:

Wow Paul, that is brutal.

I hadn't even considered this effect on pre-sales and 15% down could happen quickly, by the end of summer.

The more I think about it, the more it seems that Flaherty came up with these new rules with the intent on having the maximum effect of screwing Vancouver real estate in particular.

After all, they never win many seats around these parts.

tincup
tincup
10 years ago

Open house report:

I didn't get out much this weekend because of Daddy Duty, but conveniently my neighbor put his house on the market and has had open houses every weekend for the past three or four weeks. Traffic today seemed pretty light, with only a few young families stopping in. From the other reports here, it seems I was wrong about the rush of panicked buyers. Looks like people have already backed away from buying. My neighbors house must be a disappointment for most people, as the MLS writeup is ridiculously exaggerated with realtor-speak. It's described as "immaculate" when they don't even bother to clean the dog's nose-prints off the windows, among other things.

Absinthe
Absinthe
10 years ago

@re: appraisal:

… One last thought based on Gordon's idea that you're looking at a range maybe as big as 100K based on not being QUITE sure what a given property might rent for. Yep, that's true, especially given things like possible duplex zoning on one lot and not the other, which would affect the price and not the rent. Or, as it may be, the property's transit accessibility: important for the middle and lower classes. Or whether or not it allows pets – there's an extra $150/month right there.

There's still a pretty good feel for what in the aggregate properties should look like when spread across the population.

$1 million dollars as an average simply ain't it.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
10 years ago

Shanghai market getting a beating Monday morning.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESSEC

AH YAH!!