Good Friday Free-for-all!
You did it. You made it to the end of the week and what a good Friday it is! Lets do our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion post. Here’s a few stories I’ve noticed lately, a long list for a long weekend:
-CIBC: Canadians spending more than they can afford
-Average Vancouver house price now one million dollars
-Job anxiety highest in British Columbia
-Re/Max campaigns against part-time Realtors
-West Van prices sliding?
-High house prices stabilizing
-Why buying a house is a bad investment
-January economic boost driven by manufacturing
-Current rally has echos of 1930 snapback
-BOC interest rates 1935 to 2010
-No compelling case to raise rates
-The 5 year loophole for new CMHC rules
-Canadian mortgage arrears 1990 to 2010
-Case Shiller US market declines from peak
-NYT: Canadian banking is not the answer
-Gated community turns bad in collapse
-Irish banks need $43 billion on ‘appalling’ lending
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
April 2nd, 2010 at 2:21 am 1
I showed this chart to a mate of mine who's a trader. He just laughed. He said a lot of people are going to loose a lot of money. Not least the middle class who'll be bailing everyone out when the sh*t hit's the fan. Dear god what a mess. ! million – Vancouver! You've got be having a bath my china plate.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 2:25 am 2
Sorry, I meant lose, not loose. Loose is what I would describe the lending criteria to be.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 3:41 am 3
The middle class can't bail out "everyone" because the middle class is everyone. Everyone except the poor, who have no money, and the rich, who do but aren't going to let go of it.
Nobody is getting bailed out of the coming debacle except the banks, who have already had their exposure protected by the taxpayers. The Cons are already cutting back on small potatoes like the home insulation program. You think they're going to serve up a general bailout for homedebtors? Not a chance.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:49 am 4
Here is a post from late last night by 'inventory' on the previous thread, in case you didn't see it:
****UPDATE****UPDATE*** 12:17am, April 2
Mar 30, 2010 = 14721
Mar 31, 2010 = 14679
April 1, 2010 = 14667
Wow. 78 more net listings between 8pm and midnight. Someone stayed late working at the REBGV!!
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April 2nd, 2010 at 8:29 am 5
As a sideline for almost 8 years I have managed 14 properties for long term investors in Yaletown looking after the rental agreements. They are four independent investors, every one of them is now listed, never before have they listed even one. These people have lots of room to move with over 50% equity in all of them. They have said they will be out of the market by July 1st, and I know they can do it. Their competitors have little room to move, these people have already indicated they have missed the top but are not worried, they quadrupled their investment even if they drop 10 % from this months prices. Bulls!!! why are they selling if the market is still going to go up?
This is it I can feel it!
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April 2nd, 2010 at 8:33 am 6
Insightful commentary on our economic policies: discourage income growth and savings, encourage debt and consumption, boost asset prices and corporate profits, produce long term malinvestment.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/why-the-fa…
This would seem to be a recipe for economic feudalism of some kind. Keep the population under control with debt?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 8:49 am 7
Ended up with 493 listings added yesterday and 92 sales.
I don't recall ever seeing such a huge day for listings.
Do you think it's happening again VHB/Pope?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 8:59 am 8
Okay I should admit there is a downside to my comment # 5. I am one of the tenants arggghhh! And as they pretty well covered my rent ( I pay net $400.00 for a 1 bedroom in a really upscale condo…) I am faced with the ridiculous possibility of having to pay $1500.00 a month!!!!! if some newbee investor buys this place. Arggghh stress city!
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April 2nd, 2010 at 8:59 am 9
Hi paulb.
I think that prices won't start to drop until we hit around 20K inventory. We should be there by soon. I don't see what would save the market this time–but I have been wrong before!
Paul–could you give any insight why 'inventory's numbers are higher than those reported by the REBGV and chipman? Is it because he includes raw land?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:04 am 10
Wow lots of bears running around making wild predictions. I predict that they'll be WRONG as usual. That prediction is not hard to make since it's happened EVERY SPRING for the last what 8-9 years now?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:05 am 11
Not sure how I missed this but Johnathan said April 1st:
"Canada's Economic Action Plan's $125 billion Insured Mortgage Purchase Program finally came to an end yesterday."
…
"The banks raised fixed rates this week in response to the added risk."
americacanada-blogspot.com
$125 billion in free/irresponsible money is finished and the next day the banks had to increase their rates by 0.6%. Maybe this is also why there have been posts that banks are already using the new rules… now that the tap has been turned off they'll have to do their own due diligence instead of passing everything off to the CMHC.
Don't forget, since the economic action plan was put in place, banks have not increased their holdings of new mortgages. This always shocks me that they can have their economists come out and say "their's never been a better time to buy a house and prices are headed higher", yet overall none of them have increased their holdings… their actions speak louder than words.
Johnathan has some great posts about the CMHC, here's the one with the mortgage numbers:
"While many banks were flogging that it was a great time to buy a home, not one of them increased their mortgage holdings."
http://americacanada.blogspot.com/2009/07/cmhc-an…
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:07 am 12
Thank you VHB and great info from you also Strataman. Raw deal with the condo! lol
I can verify that Inventory is 100% accurate. Perhaps the REBGV is excluding multi-family or listings of lots (land only)? If I remember correctly Rob C's area was a self selected group of areas excluding some parts of the REBGV. The 14667 is bang on that's what's most important I guess.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:08 am 13
Well it's good to see the SFH benchmark in Vancouver hit $1M. I'll admit I was wrong now. If current policies continue there will be no crash, and this financial crisis will have been a short blip on the road to houses being infinity dollars, along with the price of everything else.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:16 am 14
Hi paulb,
thanks for that. Very helpful.
About PEI:
a) has it been hard to establish yourself there as a new realtor?
b) how is the market there in general? Driven by 'offshore' people or locals? Big oil big spenders from NF?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:16 am 15
I thought the $1m is Average, not Benchmark? Average tends to be higher than benchmark, so it maybe still under $1m (but close)
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:25 am 16
So what are you bears going to do if your crash never happens? You already wasted many years of your adult life renting and living like a loser. You do know that life is short right? We are all dying. Every day you wake up is one day closer to your death. If you live like a loser for much longer you will die as one. So it's decision time bears. What are you going to do? If this thing doesn't tank this year is this finally the year when you are actually going to get off your ass and move away and start living your life?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:26 am 17
Did I miss a smiley? Is there something magical about the Canadian economy that will prevent the kind of crash seen in the US, Ireland, etc, not to mention Vancouver 2008 before interest rates were dropped? Do you really think that prices are sustainable with rising interest rates?
Read #5 again. The people with brains and equity are getting out NOW and will take the market down the first leg. Once that happens, specuvestors will stop buying, and those owners with negative equity will be headed for foreclosure. And once started there is no way to reverse the death spiral.
This market is toast.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:38 am 18
"In the terminology used to describe the sex and age of cattle, the male is first a bull calf and if left intact becomes a bull; if castrated he becomes a steer and in about two or three years grows to an ox." Quoted from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/564800/…
That was for superboomtime! You would be I presume an OX?
Hey PaulB great to hear from you!
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:42 am 19
Inventory said:
Apr 2006 9638
Apr 2007 12135
Apr 2008 15216
Apr 2009 15332
Apr 2010 14414 ** April 1
What's interesting is that 2009 April inventory was the same (even a bit higher) as 2008 and prices still rose. So building inventory doesn't always cause price reductions?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:55 am 20
RE:
"Hi paulb,
thanks for that. Very helpful.
About PEI:
a) has it been hard to establish yourself there as a new realtor?
b) how is the market there in general? Driven by ‘offshore’ people or locals? Big oil big spenders from NF?"
a- Yes and no. There is an opportunity for one to promote ones business via advertising as virtually no agents there do any direct mail or have nice websites. In the papers the offices list thumbnails of all the properties for sale and Realtors generally don’t place individual ads. An ambitious Realtor with some $$ could quite easily get their name out there. The converse is that the market there is very tight knit and hard to break into without being a good old boy. Therefore I see throwing some money at the issue as the only way to get the ball rolling sooner than later.
b- Depends on the markets in which you work. The home I personally bought and just recently sold is in an exclusive neighbourhood which locals find too expensive. This area trades with people retiring from BC and AB, as well as Teachers and doctors moving for work etc. Most areas in PEI however follow the same rule that local buyers drive the market.
Paul
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:56 am 21
Are those all April 1st numbers? If so I am surprised that we are still way behind last years inventory and we know what happened last year. What gives? Are those all April 1st numbers? I was under the impression we were setting inventory records for end of March…
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April 2nd, 2010 at 10:03 am 22
Oh, and I am back in Van. Going to school FT finishing up my degree. I figure it's a great time to upgrade my education as the wheels fall off the market.
PEI is a fantastic place to retire but too sleepy, and was not an ideal economic environment for my wife and I who both have both academic and professional ambitions. Got back in Van just a couple weeks ago.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 10:03 am 23
dorker,
Price reductions are dependant not only on the level of inventory but also the rate of change of inventory. Even though inventory levels were higher in Apr 2009 than now, inventory was rapidly falling then compared to rapidly rising now.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 10:06 am 24
2009 Apr 1st 15125
2010 Apr 1st 14667
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April 2nd, 2010 at 10:24 am 25
Paulb, "Got back in Van just a couple weeks ago"
Hey, you must be charmed by the Winter Olympics coverage, and lured back by your sweet memories of Van.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 10:25 am 26
Paulb, "Got back in Van just a couple weeks ago"
Hey, you must be charmed by the Winter Olympics coverage, and lured back by your sweet memories of Van.
Welcome back.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 10:26 am 27
sorry about my double posting.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 10:27 am 28
Dorker, Damann,
Relax boys, inventory last April was falling and this April it is "kite to moon".
We'll surpass last springs inventory within a week or two and just keep pulling further and further away.
We are on the exact same trajectory on all fronts as the spring of 2008, with no possibility of lowering rates this time around to save the sinking ship.
And yes, the average price is far higher than the median which is nowhere near 1 million. It is currently 800k and I would expect it to go to around $810-$815 when March numbers come out next week. There may be one final month of increases in April. Or not.
http://www.rew.ca/marketstats.htm
And welcome back, Paul B.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 10:32 am 29
Hi Dorker,
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_GcUKDFoCTBk/S1PutilC6MI/AAAAAAAAAHo/6BiMbZNLxMM/s1600-h/GVREB+HOH+and+MOI+December+2009.jpg" rel="nofollow">here is your answer.
The relationship between inventory and prices is through months of inventory.
When MOI gets to 6.0, we will see prices steady. We're not there yet, so I expect prices to have risen in March.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 11:10 am 30
The carrying costs for that "average" million dollars home are also to be considered. Since I am a "poor renter" I do not have the numbers, but I would guess that property taxes + maintenance are roughly what I pay yearly for rent. Energy costs are up us well.
The average home income is what? 67k?
It seems like something out of Alice in wonderland… It cannot end well.
Mortgages here are recourse. This bubble, when the dust clears, will bankrupt the average family. I wonder if our "ruling elite" friends in the blog will still have money to pay for the internet bill. I would definitely be curious to have a chat with them a couple of years from now.
Regards
arit
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April 2nd, 2010 at 11:13 am 31
to VHB of Vancouver Housing blog and Inventory, thanks for providing us with daily listing/sales numbers. I think the housing correction or crash we have long been waiting for is finally coming and there is nothing more the gov't can do this time to save it. PaulB, welcome back. Looking forward to see your old website back up.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 11:35 am 32
Paul(pei),Scullboy(halifax),Ex vancouverite's (Calgary),and Patriotz(Ontario),
Your constant presence here on vci shows that you are away from The best place on earth. If you gotta be here,you must pay the premium because hey Vancouver cityyyyyyyyyy.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 11:47 am 33
#28 Best Place on Meth:"We are on the exact same trajectory on all fronts as the spring of 2008, with no possibility of lowering rates this time around to save the sinking ship."
Bingo.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 11:52 am 34
looks like CBC is getting on the wagon too.
' Canadian real estate too pricey: survey '
The majority of Canadian homeowners and homebuyers think house prices are too high, a BMO survey suggests.
The survey found that 71 per cent of current and future homebuyers considered houses too expensive. That was especially true in major urban centres.
Despite this perception that homes cost more than they should, the survey also found Canadians feeling more pressure to "buy now."
"Housing prices have risen 89 per cent since 2002 — vastly outpacing family income gains," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
"But with a cooler market just around the corner, with rising interest rates expected, and the introduction of the harmonized sales tax in Ontario and B.C., prudence may be a good choice for many new entrants into the housing market."
Rates heading up
This week, a number of Canadian banks began hiking their fixed-rate mortgages, with the popular five-year term jumping by six-10ths of a percentage point to a posted rate of 5.85 per cent.
While most borrowers are able to get the posted rate chopped by more than a full percentage point, most discounted rates also moved up by the same six-10ths of a point.
The most recent figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association, which are based on national MLS sales, showed the average selling price in February was $335,655, up 18.2 per cent in the last year.
In some markets, the average selling price was breathtaking. For instance in Vancouver, the average home changed hands for $662,741 in February — up more than $120,000 from a year earlier.
Higher mortgage rates and the arrival of tighter mortgage lending rules are sending more first-time borrowers to independent mortgage brokers rather than banks, according to the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals.
Figures from CMHC last year showed that 42 per cent of homebuyers aged 25 to 34 used a broker.
New lending rules in effect Apr. 19
New mortgage lending rules coming April 19 will require buyers to qualify for a five-year, fixed-rate mortgage even if they plan to choose a lower-rate variable mortgage.
About one-third of respondents in the BMO survey said they'd lost sleep because of the stress of trying to buy a new home and about 15 per cent of prospective buyers said they'd been in bidding wars and had felt they'd often overpaid as a result.
The online survey was carried out by Harris-Decima between Feb. 16 and Feb. 22 and was based on a sample of 1,000 Canadians between the ages of 25 to 45 years who are either current home owners or are planning on purchasing their first home in the next 12 months.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 11:56 am 35
Current Rally Has Echoes of 1930s Snapback – this article reminds me of a film I saw at the VIFF in 2004. It's called Sandcastles.
http://icarusfilms.com/new2004/san.html
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April 2nd, 2010 at 11:57 am 36
PaulB
Very happy to have you back
Yes, to 'watch the wheels fall off this market'
I give it 30-120 more days – max
its done
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April 2nd, 2010 at 12:44 pm 37
Interesting reading today. Great posts on the CMHC ending the IMPP.
CMHC also ended the Retrofit Program on March 31, 2010. Natural Resources Canada also ended the EcoEnergy Retrofit program on the same date.
Lots of incentives for lenders and consumers are disappearing before our eyes including record low interest rates.
Nice timing PaulB, good to see you around, it's beginning to look a lot like 2008 all over again.
The perfect storm…. clouds are rolling in… going to be a very interesting 18 months. God I hate how slow the RE Market works. Soon owners are going to realize that their asset is illiquid, paralyzing them from moving up or cashing in… sell now or be priced in forever, indeed.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 12:47 pm 38
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/41514-…
take advantage of what?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 1:11 pm 39
So much for the theory that all the rich retirees from AB and points east will buy in BC. Even our own retirees are leaving!
Thanks for the post paulb.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 1:32 pm 40
warning!
this is bitter fantasy bear playground only. anyone posts against bears's whinning is being marked.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 2:36 pm 41
I have feeling that Kite to the Moon will soon mean Kiting Cheques to the Moon
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April 2nd, 2010 at 3:43 pm 42
If we get to MOI of 6, I would expect slight price decreases month-over-month, given prices continued to rise in the winter.
The trajectory of listings is extremely bearish.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 3:45 pm 43
What month are listings generally at their highest?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 4:18 pm 44
Spectrum,
Most of time listings comes to it's peak in month of September but in 2009 September peak of listings was lower than April 2009.
Paulb,
I am sure that living cost in Vancouver is higher than Prince Albert but who care if you gotta be here.Right? Aren't you suppose to sell under 200k to the residence over there? Well, people leave Vancouver with different reason and come back with different.I believe those doctors who have had left Vancouver in the begining of 2008 are back as well,however,they are bit shy to tell us.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 4:23 pm 45
Never get high off your own supply Kite.
Seriously though, I can't make sense of what you are asking.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 4:41 pm 46
Strataman……
did you ever post your expose' on how poorly built new condos are….aka they leak on the INSIDE?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 4:41 pm 47
Paulb,
Never mind,you may have forgotten your own written farewell and close to farewell commentary,Now welcome back to Vancouver.Atleast you are doing justice to your wife but what about those people,People like Patriotz out of Vancouver who does not yield to their spouse's and their feelings.Vancouver is heart of Canada,People must get back here on any cost.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 4:44 pm 48
Back in vancouver. All I hear is how Vancouver real estate is the greatest investment ever. It never goes down. I missed the boat and will continue to miss the boat as it will continue to go up. Being chewed out like this from my family and the rain is starting to make me irrationalliy exhuberant. I should buy a dump here quickly before its too late. Even though I could buy a little piece of paradise elsewhere for less I must truly be missing out.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 4:53 pm 49
Projects that are past the point of no retiun are likley in overdrive, trying to get on the market and sold before the HST kicks in. Other projects are on hold and will wait till proceeding. I saw this enormous 4 storey high sand preload in Richmond which sat for months, , they moved it to the North portion of the site..but haven't even started to build .
The HST, plus more stringent lending practices plus higher mortgage rates will kill this market. FTB are an endangered species, maybe David Suzuki will do a " Nature of Things " special on them, this part of the RE food chain is burnt toast.
Like Strataman indicates, the smart money is bailing. Always watch these moves.
BTW, anyone see any action on the Olympic Village?. Apparently they have to perform a fair bit of renovations before they can sell them.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 5:13 pm 50
I'm a mortgage borker and I've borked even more mortgages over the last few days. I've also borked many, many "shell applications". I've got about 500 shell apps left bears at 3.55 so if you wanna buy just let me know! I can bork you a mortgage in no time.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 5:17 pm 51
RE markets cannot function without FTB. You cannot simply have existing owners selling to each other, because some owners are always permanently exiting the market and someone has to replace them. Plus most existing owners are moving up which means someone has to move into the low end. Plus the builders have to sell to someone.
Low end prices have to fall to levels that FTB are able and willing to pay, and they will take every level of the market down with them.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 5:19 pm 52
Froogle Scott has served up a real treat for his next episode:
The Froogle Scott Chronicles: Mortgaging Our Souls In Paradise –
Part 6: Renovation Nervosa
http://wp.me/pcq1o-F1
"These are the unsexy but expensive things far removed from dreamy notions of granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, and tasteful colour schemes that coordinate walls, window coverings, and upholstery. They’re the guts of a house, the organs, rather than the skin. And when they go wrong, the whole organism can go wrong. Most first time buyers really don’t understand the implications of those fateful words, uttered so blithely: we can fix it up." – Froogle Scott
"In this episode, our protagonist takes us on a tour of his home’s innards, and of the challenges facing those who try to do renos themselves, or even with the help of subcontractors. For those of us who enjoy sitting back in comfort and vicariously having the sense of being a good person doing sincere and honest work, could there be a better read than this on a rainy Vancouver Easter weekend?" -vreaa
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April 2nd, 2010 at 5:30 pm 53
Kite, if Vancouver is the heart of Canada then why is it that only 1 in 14 Canadians live here, 2 million out of 35 million approx..
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April 2nd, 2010 at 5:46 pm 54
Stay away from "leasehold" properties. did you haer abour the Richmond one?
The parties who bought units are on the hook for major condo repair costs, even if they don't own the land.
If you have to buy, follow the pecking order as to what you actually own.
PS: Patriotz…I am impressed…you are actually starting to get how RE works. I hear James Cameron is going to do a 3-D movie about FTB called " Avaturd"
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April 2nd, 2010 at 5:51 pm 55
NO-LYMPICS Says:
April 2nd, 2010 at 4:41 pm
Strataman……
did you ever post your expose’ on how poorly built new condos are….aka they leak on the INSIDE?
I don't think he did; I've kept an eye out for it as well.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 6:02 pm 56
Like you think if you buy a condo you actually own the land?
There is no practical difference between a condo and a multi-unit leasehold.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 6:16 pm 57
Mortgage BoRker, I enjoy your sense of humour…
April's fool every day, it seems.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 6:25 pm 58
STOP THE PRESSES
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/04/02/home-pri…
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April 2nd, 2010 at 6:26 pm 59
Reknab,
There is a scarcity of land in Vancouver definitely the size of populoation will be inline with the numbers of housing in Vancouver that's why people who are unable to afford Vancouver they provide oppertunity to other to try their luck unless somebody is agree to go homeless and stay within boundary or just out of here.However,The size of Population is increasing through the room sharing sectors,It will also increase through laneway housing and cruise,shipping containers.Whoever want to have different life style in Vancouver,they must appreciate the sellers asking prices.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:00 pm 60
Patriotz:
"Like you think if you buy a condo you actually own the land?"
That brings up a very interesting question. Does anybody know when do you OWN the land. I would like to use the term OWN like I OWN my shoe. Nobody can legally take away my shoe. It's mine no matter what.
If I "own" a house, but have not finished paying the mortgage, then I stop making payments, the bank owns it.
If I "own" a house, and have finished paying the mortgage, but stop paying taxes on it, the gov't owns it.
If I "own" a house, and have finished paying the mortgage, and keep paying taxes on it, but there is a new intergalactic highway passing through my house, the gov't owns it.
If I "own" a house, and have finished paying the mortgage, and keep paying taxes on it, but there is oil found in my property the gov't owns it.
When can I actually OWN the land? Or is this all a big joke?
Do I even own my shoe?
Regards
arit
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:03 pm 61
You have to forgive kite toward moon – he's ESL and Special Ed all rolled up into one. A tragic combination.
BORK ME, BORK ME! WHOOOO!!
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:18 pm 62
# 56 patriotz
Good rebuttable ( man you are really starting to understand RE ).
I made that specific point as it reminded me of that condo project in Burnaby area that was built in the 1970's and was a notorious leaker. Ultimately a developer approached the owners to buy it and it required 100% consensus from every purchaser. After a couple of holdouts were convinced, the developer acquired the whole projct, demolished it and built a new development. My understanding is that in this situation your have common property mixed in with the units you have title to. I presume that in a more simplistic legal sense, the strata owners as individuals own their individual units, but collectively own the land.
In leasehold, you own the building, not the land, you lease the land , it is NOT common property and thus the strata has no control over it. I am curious re: the assessments of these leasehold units…many of them are on long term leases (50+years)and the units must depeciate in value, only the land value would appreciate.
That's the demarcation I am making. I can't understand why anyone would want leasehold, it must be a more affordable option than simple strata.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:29 pm 63
arit….
reducto ad absurdum, we actually own NOTHING, we only rent it while we have a pulse and something registers on the brain wave scan.
Ownership can be better defined as a scale where the incremtns are " what degree of control do you have ? "
If we have a scale of 1-10….10 being the most control….NO ONE has a 10….ie there are a myriad of reasons why one does not have 100% control of one's property.(ie mortage, foreclosure, lawsuits, expropriation etc.).
I think the greatest "potential" control is SFH …that way you don't have to deal with stratas and their pseudo- democratic structure.
BTW: your shoes are like a car, they depreciate quickly (and you can step in dog shit when not paying attention).
Renting is the least in control, sort of like gypsies.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:39 pm 64
Anyone watch that TV show REPOMEN on Ch. 49 ?
Frikkin hilarious.
This REPO company works in California, and confiscates vehicles when payments are overdue. It's amazing the spectrum of people of ages and professions with high end vehicles that have them confiscated.
Apparently the law allows the repomen to take them at any time, even if it leaves the people stranded.
Scary how people overextend themselves.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:39 pm 65
Kite, what do you do for living? You must be a PITA for your mates, poor people…
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:45 pm 66
Satv > Krissh > Kite
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:48 pm 67
NO-LYMPICS, leasehold units that aren't on Native land don't sell at much of a discount in Vancouver. Studies show no real difference at UBC and perhaps a tiny difference further out. Most leases are 100 years. I think the reason is that people trust the government not to gouge them on the lease renewal when it comes around again. Most people also don't plan to live in a place for 100 years. Studies overseas have shown that leasehold renewal doesn't start to become an issue until you get to within 30 years of renewal.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:57 pm 68
Dave:
" I think the reason is that people trust the government not to gouge them on the lease renewal when it comes around again."
Trust gov't ????? ….ahahahahahaha.Good one !!!!
My understanding is the UBC etc lands are in trust and cannot be sold…(much like Native lands are held in trust by the Feds the Natives cannot sell them). These groups can however create a cash cow by this leasehold agreement.
I would presume that at say 90 years into a 100 year lease that there must be some major depreciation, based on age and uncertainty. I recall some people owned cabins on Native lands (Pitt lake area) and were not offered renewals, so either demolished them or walked away.
My point is that if the RE market tanks, the leashold would be the least desireable RE to get into
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April 2nd, 2010 at 7:58 pm 69
Dave stop talking to us bears and get out there and buy some of these condos!
If you don't somebody else will right?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 8:14 pm 70
Walked by Pacific Palisades Hotel today. Sign out front says that they're closing along with Zin Restaurant on April 30 to make way for new apartments.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 8:16 pm 71
The rest of the Athlete's Village Condos go on sale in May. Line up know if you want one.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 8:17 pm 72
Now! We need a edit button!
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:02 pm 73
Dave, people trust governments to not raise lease rates? That didn't work out so well for people in false creek when Vancouver raised their leases by 700% in 2006 eh?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:03 pm 74
"Strataman……
did you ever post your expose’ on how poorly built new condos are….aka they leak on the INSIDE?"
No sorry never did! I was away a lot this winter, and usually swamped when I was here.Is anybody still interested?
Sometimes wonder what the point is when people bid for places without even considering putting in a subject to!
No Olympics "that way you don’t have to deal with stratas and their pseudo- democratic structure"
Truer words then you could possibly believe! You lease airspace in a condo.. that's it! Much airspace is also controlled by others (The developer often never sells a large amount of airspace to the strata).No buyer I know has ever asked to see the legal air space drawings of their purchase. They would get a shock. They can find them at the COV plans dept if interested.
Common property is like a city park and recreation center, you pay for it but can't own it, sell it or even change it much, but YOU will pay for the maintenance and liabilities that will arise (and boy do they arise). Large strata's with lots of common property are borderline bankrupt most of the time. The best buy if you have to buy is a single tower strata with no rec center (especially a pool)! There is a strata on Marinaside that killed their 9 years worth of contingency savings on pool repairs just lately.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:07 pm 75
Is today one of those most livable days they are always mentioning about Vancouver? Apparently we have another week straight of rain en-route.
Record temperatures in the east though, 20-30c
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch…
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:14 pm 76
In 2014, there will be no better feeling than moving into your Vancouver SFH while thinking: Man, I just bought this place at a $400K haircut from the 2010 peak levels!
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:16 pm 77
Nolympics,
Thanks for the explanation. So you are saying that in Canada there is no "100% all yours" land?
My shoes my depreciate, but I can theoretically keep fixing them and use them forever (place your Jewish joke here, yes).
Strataman,
I personally would very much like to read your essay on condo maintenance, yes.
Regards
arit
ALL: VOTE COMMENT 74 (STRATAMAN)UP IF YOU WANT TO READ STRATAMAN'S EXPOSE.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:29 pm 78
Dave
Leaseholds don't start to deteriorate until they fall below 50 years. It is the same reason that amortizing a mortgage more than 50 years is of little benefit. If you don't understand it's no wonder you believe in on going RE ponzi scheme.
Tick Tock
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:42 pm 79
@crashcow
In 2014, there will be no better feeling than moving into your Vancouver SFH while thinking: Man, I just bought this place at a $400K haircut from the 2010 peak levels!
Dude, I assume you are referring to Vancouver SFH priced at 725K as we speak.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:54 pm 80
I said 'price deterioration' due to renewal happens at year 70, or within 30 years of the renewal.
So what's your point, aside from showing a lack of reading comprehension?
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April 2nd, 2010 at 9:58 pm 81
The fact and reality is that leaseholds don't sell for much of a discount in Vancouver. Again studies show only single digit differences in theoretical prices and even no difference for some locations. If people didn't trust the leaseholder, this wouldn't be the case. Musqueum Land is a good example of a lack of trust and the impact on prices (>50% discount).
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April 2nd, 2010 at 11:04 pm 82
Well this time I have to agree with Dave. The difference in value between a leasehold and a freehold is negligible at the beginning of the lease, because the value of the property at the end of the lease has to be discounted by (1.06)^99 = 320 (assuming 99 year lease and 6% interest rate) to get present value. That is, the leasehold is worth 1 – 1/320 as much as the same property as a freehold.
Thus both freeholds and leaseholds are equally, i.e. absurdly, overpriced.
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April 2nd, 2010 at 11:15 pm 83
good night, bitter bears.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 12:19 am 84
Good night, indeed
No chance for me to lose sleep over my investments!
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April 3rd, 2010 at 12:35 am 85
@bystander,
The average price of a detached home in GVRD has now exceed $1M. (http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/the-lotus-has-blossomed)
I'm calling for a top in Fall of 2010, followed by a 40% decline by 2014.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 6:05 am 86
I have reached the tipping point(not the restaurant type,Please no more discussion on that) As I watch the evening news with the lead stories one of which they are interviewing some folks who have waited in line at the border for up to 3 hours to head south and the other that local avg prices have hit $1 mil, I have to wonder and then it hits me.
WTF! I am sorry if your family peers have talked you into that but there comes a time when one has to step back and give your head a shake and ask yourself "What was I thinking?"
The herd mentality takes over us and makes us do things, that in retrospect, are plain …..(I am lost for words that adequately describes this behavior )
This behavior was apparent during the Olympics.I am not talking about the actual sporting event although the lineups for security came very close. People wandering about with no clue as to why they were lining up in queue
for hours at a time other than the fact that there were others doing it.
Strataman : You are bang on with your assessment. I manage a strata building myself and most people have not a clue to what they are getting into when they buy into a strata property. Hint: glitter and shine goes a long way regardless of the quality.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 6:57 am 87
Thanks for the clarification on the relationship between inventory and prices. Where would we get months of inventory data from? I guess if we had sales info along with inventory, we could calculate MOI ourselves?
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:58 am 88
Dorker:
this data was posted in the forum by Starving Artist. It is from the monthly REBGV reports. It has MOI in there.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 8:08 am 89
vreaa Says: April 2nd, 2010 at 5:19 pm
Froogle Scott has served up a real treat for his next episode:The Froogle Scott Chronicles: Mortgaging Our Souls In Paradise – Part 6: Renovation Nervosa
I read this and kept gasping as the guy was pouring more and more into his shitty little house – however, i gasped even more when i realised that due to fortuitous timing (2003 purchase), the 50k or so he spend still left him with 400k equity – wow. Still i wouldn't want to spend the time and effort he did on dealing with house problems. I can only imagine how bad this must be for 2010 buyers of fixer-uppers who cannot hope for similar appreciation levels.
CondoConundrum Says: April 3rd, 2010 at 6:05 am
I agree CondoConundrum, what is wrong with these people who wait 5 hours for entry to Irish House at the Olympics and 5 hours to cross the Peace Arch? Mindless fucking sheeple!
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April 3rd, 2010 at 8:27 am 90
Dave said: Musqueum Land is a good example of a lack of trust and the impact on prices (>50% discount).
I just spent a weekend consoling my better half because i didn't want to buy a foreclosed monster home on Musqueam land. Her best friend lives 2 minutes from the house and they are also on Musqueam land, hence the sudden desire to relocate – plus she hates renting.
The house was 268k and sold for 238k – abandoned -
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…
i never actually visited the property. Lease about 12k and taxes 9k according to realtor site. It was 5700sqft with swimming pool etc. The lease, tax & mortgage was about $2600, same as i pay in rent. This was my partner's argument – it's the same as rent etc etc and we would have our "own place", "build equity" etc etc.
Repair wise it would have been a Froogle Scott on steriods -she has a father and step-father who are handymen so she had visions of them "doing the work for us."
Obviously i dodged this bullet, but what do people think about the concept of buying on lease land if as my partner says, "we will never be able to afford our own house to live in otherwise and ALL my friends now own (please add in much wailing and gnashing of teeth that we are poor renters!)."
As the realtor site says, the lease is reset in 2015, 2035 and 2055 – could this be reset to any new amount or is there some control?
Just interested in people's thoughts – thankfully it is now sold.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 8:46 am 91
I think the terms of the lease are that they can be reset to "market value".
But the larger point is if you are dealing with such a short lease term, effectively you are just renting the land. So basically you're in the same position as a mobile home owner renting a pad, except the mobile home owner has the option of moving his residence somewhere else.
Do not confuse the issues regarding short lease terms (some of which also came up in False Creek I think) with prepaid 99 year leases. The latter are effectively the same as freehold in valuation terms, as I noted above.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 9:10 am 92
CondoConundrum: Well said. It's true.
Through work I deal with Prop. Mgr's and Strata Councils more than I'd care to admit. Most of my time is spent educating new strata owners of what common property is, what maintenance is and why they should've read their contracts or had a lawyer do so before signing the purchase agreement.
Here's some examples of common mistakes I see:
1) Presale buys – A major mistake is people don't read the sales agreement. If they did they'd see that in the sales agreement the Developer has the right to CHANGE the plan. So, post-completion, they get into their unit and see that the layout is not like the one they saw in the showroom and they freak. The Developer turns around and says, "So what? Read the contract".
2) Maintenance – Most owners feel that because it's a new building and there is a warranty on it, if something breaks it's not their problem. Not true. Each condo owner is supplied with a maintenance manual, usually about 4 inches thick that sits in a closet somewhere collecting dust, until something goes wrong. If the owner isn't following the maintenance detailed in the manual… no warranty, their problem. Plus, the warranties are limited and short in duration. 2 year L&M? 5 Year Water pen.? Not much time at all.
3) Strata Minutes – Obviously I'm not talking presales here, but the majority of strata owners that I've seen never bothered obtaining the strata minutes including details on the treasury before they bought. They could've paid to have them analyzed by someone who understands them if necessary. I had this done when I bought a place in Calgary it was worth every penny I spent.
They move in and boom, fees go up 15-20% or an assessment comes down on them and then they want to go sue the seller for misrepresentation or non-disclosure. What if the seller wasn't on council and did not know? Buyer beware!
Bottom line, many sheeple ran into the largest investment of their life without even reading the contracts they signed. If that's not a recipe for disaster, I don't know what is.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 9:25 am 93
Nice summary of the new mortgage restrictions and their potential impact on housing prices:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/End+of+an+er…
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April 3rd, 2010 at 9:39 am 94
Regarding Froogle Scott,
I read it last night, and it was a real eye opener for me.
1. All this effort, the money spent… For what???? For having the luxury of sharing your house with someone else? So the houses are so expensive that you need to share them with a complete stranger, and then you bust your back and get ulcer worrying about contractors, only to make THEIR 'half' of the house livable? Poor Froogle did not enjoy a nicer kitchen or a luxurious bathroom himself: He did it for an "irresponsible renter" who "might trash the place and not even pay rent" (as some people here would put it). This is utterly absurd.
2. The house itself: Please, rotting houses? Maybe I come from a different culture, but we are all familiar with the three little piglets
I'll remind you, just in case:
"The first little pig built his house out of straw because it was the easiest thing to do.
The second little pig built his house out of sticks. This was a little bit stronger than a straw house.
The third little pig built his house out of bricks."
See, they taught us that houses should be made out of BRICKS, otherwise the big bad wolf would come and take away all your equity!!!
So why is North America using sticks?
Well, unfortunately, it's all part of the "planned obsolescence".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_obsolescence
Pride of ownership? The burden of ownership, says arit.
Regards
arit
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April 3rd, 2010 at 9:41 am 95
Arit:
Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms does not expressly provide for the protection of property rights. We all have the right to enjoy what we own, while we still have it, but that's just about it.
Not many people actually know that all attempts to amend the constitution to protect property rights have been thus far unsuccessful. We do not truly own anything. Any existing property laws can be changed by legislation as the government pleases.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 9:48 am 96
Property is anything which its owner considers of value. Do you think that anyone has the right to own nuclear weapons, child pornography, drugs, etc? Do you see why a lot of people don't want to see a "right to own property" in the Constitution?
BTW the US Constitution has no "right to own property" either, contrary to what a lot of people think.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 9:53 am 97
A new owner approached me the other day. He mentioned that he would like some info on how he could use the neighboring building's(not affiliated with ours) pool and amenities room since our building does not have one. I replied I was not aware of any existing agreement with them. He answered…
(drum roll please)" Well the Real estate agent told me I could use it any time and that was a major part of his decision making. My shadow buckled over laughing. I had to tell him that this was not true and if he went over there the manager was likely to throw him off the property. Incidentally he refused to pay the strata fees for a few months.He promptly payed up after a lien was placed on his "airspace".
Seriously I could not make up this story. Some people.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 10:36 am 98
ulsterman,
I agree with you. I saw this one on the MLS and thought: what a recipe for disaster! You pay the equivalent of a rent for land and tax ($2000), then you need to spend $250 000 ($1000 mortgage) for the walls, and may be $50 000 renos (or more). Do not forget utilities and maintenance of the pool. And at the end you own … nothing! Plus the lease might go up. Finally, the banks do not feel safe lending money to buy properties like this, so better have cash.
Your best half might be a bit emotional over this issue. She could write down answers to the following questions, then set up priorities.
1) What is the main incentive for owning?
Building equity?
Saving for retirement?
Social status?
Having her own swimming pool?
Sense of safety and stability?
2) What price is she ready to pay for it?
How much she is ready to pay in interest?
How much equity is she REALLY going to build?
Did she calculate the minimum number of years you need to stay in the house in order not to lose money when selling?
Does she like the idea of losing mobility? What if there is a great job offer in another city?
Does she enjoy living in renos?
Does she enjoy dealing with contractors?
How can she handle the stress of raising interest rates?
How can she handle the risk of damages in the house after an earthquake?
How can she handle a crashing housing market?
How would she deal with unbearable neighbours or his aggressive dog?
How can she handle unexpected expanses, like a leaky roof or a moisture problem?
How much time is she ready to devote to garden maintenance?
Does she know how to maintain a swimming pool?
Did she factor in the cost of heating a big home?
Did she factor in the cost of land transfer taxes and notary fees?
How would she handle the fear of one of you losing her/his job?
Would you need a second car?
Is she ready to leave her kids with a baby sitter if she needs to work to repay the mortgage?
Is she ready to deal with bad tenants if you need to rent a part of the house?
May be we should write a questionnaire for prospective buyers
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April 3rd, 2010 at 12:14 pm 99
Kite Toward moon:
God you're one dimwitted fuck. Vancouver isn't the heart of Canada, and if you'd bothered to cross the country you'd see that. While it isn't my favorite city by any means, Toronto is the heart of Canada. YOu could argue that Montreal or Calgary are in the #2 spot, Vancouver is probably 4th.
Go out and see the rest of the country, you fucking moron.
I really hope you, your fucking family and everyone you know get reamed in the coming Homepocalypse.
I think actually the smart money left Vancouver several months ago, just before the Olympics hit the stage. Now the cunning and the lucky will get out. After that everyone's going to be locked in for the massacre.
Is it wrong for me to want to see middle class families to get wiped out? I made what arrangements I can and I'll be well situated. I'm in debt (culinary school wasn't cheap), but it's mobile debt… I'm not locked into a home. I figure if I'm suffering a bit but everyone else is suffering MORE then I'm ahead of the game.
PaulB: Everything in the Maritimes is an old-boys club, I think. I was surprised to hear you moved to PEI originally…. there isn't much there.
In your opinion, would you say it's easier to launch a small business here compared to say Toronto or Van?
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April 3rd, 2010 at 12:37 pm 100
Scullboy,
I am sorry about my all post include the one you had mention. i think Halifax is heart of Canada without electricity and heat.You are right,Smart money has left Ontario and Alberta and other routes of Canada and entered into Vancouver(real heart). check out the real heart of Canada http://www.chpc.biz/images/FEB10-Everest1.jpg
Hello?
Fill up your eyes!
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April 3rd, 2010 at 1:02 pm 101
Arit:
You'd love the houses in Halifax. Seriously. I'm constantly amazed at how sturdy they are. I grew up in Cole Harbour, not far from Sydney Crosby… seriously. In the little area I grew up the mandate was that homes be a minimum of 60% brick. Many exteriors are 100% brick, but you also get quite a lot of brick and siding of brick and cedar.
It's been ….. gosh…. 20 years since I lived there and I went through the area a couple of weeks ago. NOTHING changes, all the houses looked exactly as they had 20 years ago.
I myself live in the North End, close to an area called the Hydrostones. FOr those of you who don't know your Canadian history (I'm looking at you, Kite, you dimwitted motherfucker) Halifax was the site of the largest manmade explosion before Hiroshima at the close of WWI. The explosion destroyed a large chunk of the city. During the recovery they built the Hydrostones, which are houses made of cinderblock. They were quite innovative at the time, and now nearly a century later, they still form a viable neighborhood. There are a lot of sturdy little WWII homes here as well that have been lovingly cared for, and have withstood the elements, including a Category 2 hurricane a few years back.
People sometimes complains about the quality of workmanship locally. When they do I just laugh and tell them about Vancouver's famous covered condos. The only problem is people around here think I'm making things up, because they believe NOBODY would be stupid enough to build those kinds of places or by them at Van prices.
Oh and Kite: Keep slagging on Halifax, seriously. I really don't want you or any other dimwitted Vancouverite getting ideas about visiting or moving. Stay in Burnaby or North Van or Richmond or wherever, stupid motherfucker. Wallow in your ignorance and eat shitty dim sum with Supra. It keeps you out of everyone else's hair.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 1:05 pm 102
Patriotz:
BTW…I do respect your posts…..I was just pulling your leg re: your catching up on RE.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 1:12 pm 103
Don't listen to high as a kite, I doubt he has ever even been anywhere in Canada beside Vancouver, like he is qualified to know the heart. What does the price of a house have to do with being the heart anyway?! Acording to his graph that's the qualifier, what an idiot. By the way, it is 27c in the non-heart of Canada today, wha is it here, 6c?
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April 3rd, 2010 at 1:23 pm 104
scullboy:
Bang on!
Brick construction, or brick siding is used a lot in Eastern Canada and the US. It inherently has an air space between it and the framing…so effectively any water would have to penetrate about 4 inches of brick and about one inch of air.
In my own observations, stucco is not a bad product IF used according to old standards. I think the Post Expo boom, whereby offshore investors flooded in, quality suffered on the most crucial component, the exterior walls, as mass production on SFH and multi family developments came on stream and poor stucco became the norm.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 1:35 pm 105
Freehold versus leasehold:
I'll agree that early on it probably doesn't have much of a price difference. Even more reason to try freehold. The only reason I can see people getting into leasehold is the locale(ie on near UBC, SFU), or Native lands which can also be in prime locales.
Ulsterman: Good move avoiding the Musqueam homes. People have to realize that after the bitter fight the word is out and the properties are toxic. Those homes were built in the 1960's and must be in serious depreciation.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 2:07 pm 106
Scullboy:
"PaulB: Everything in the Maritimes is an old-boys club, I think. I was surprised to hear you moved to PEI originally…. there isn’t much there. In your opinion, would you say it’s easier to launch a small business here compared to say Toronto or Van?"
Good question. As far as ease I am not sure. I can tell you however that there is so much lacking in PEI that there are many opportunities for business that fit the unique (lower income) market place. It is not a very sophisticated/cosmopolitan market so one would have to keep that in mind.
In Vancouver or Toronto you have to deal with fierce competition and higher start-up costs etc. I guess it boils down to what type of business and the suitability or adaptability of your service to the local market.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 2:10 pm 107
STRATAMAN: PLEASE DO YOUR EXPOSE !
STRATAMAN: PLEASE DO YOUR EXPOSE !
STRATAMAN: PLEASE DO YOUR EXPOSE !
ps NO NEED TO DO IT ALL AT ONCE…SIMPLY POINT OUT THE PROBLEMS ONE AT A TIME . IE I RECALL YOU MENTIONING SOMETHING BOUT HOW THEY CHEAP OUT ON SIMPLE PARTS IE HOW TOILETS ARE CONNECTED.
( I RECALL TALKING TO A FRAMER ON A CONDO PROJECT A FEW YEARS BACK. HIS JOB WAS TO BUILD COVERED PORCHES OFF THE MAIN FLOOR SIDE ENTRANCE…IT WAS ALL PIECEWORK ).
THANKS
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April 3rd, 2010 at 2:24 pm 108
Condoconundrum , Vansanity and Strataman:
Re Stratas
They are an endless black hole, even if they are well run and managed.
Some family members live in one. They recently completed a $5 Million leaky condo fix.
The outdoor railings are comprised of glass panels. A couple of weeks ago a number of them shattered, simply due to the weather. Approx. $200 cost per panel. The condos face an inner courtyard that is nicely landscaped. Last week they tore out every bush and tree and are redoing it? WTF does that cost ?
Each year, they are obligated to have an company come and re certify the smoke detectors/fire alarms in each unit.
Same with elevators.
Suckers that go in for pools etc. are asking for trouble..that is another money pit.
It is an ongoing project whereby one is nickel and dimed to death 24/7/365.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 2:27 pm 109
I caught up on RE during the 1981-82 Vancouver bust for the most part, and got a refresher from the US bust post-2005. What I'm catching up on now is the psychology of mass delusion.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 2:36 pm 110
Re: entrenchment of property rights
When one thinks about it,what rights are actually entrenched ?
You may think you live in a free country, but that's one of the biggest lies out there. Every right you perceive you have can be challenged or attacked, especially by your own gov't. Beware !
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April 3rd, 2010 at 4:48 pm 111
@paulb:
"there is so much lacking in PEI that there are many opportunities for business that fit the unique (lower income) market place. It is not a very sophisticated/cosmopolitan market so one would have to keep that in mind."
Wow, that's putting it mildly.
As my mom would say "They have to come out of the woods to go hunting." I think the only industries there are potato farms, apples, maybe some fishing and of course Anne of Green Gables. There's *nothing* there, and I mean nothing. As I said I was really surprised you moved there.
By the way it was 22 degrees, warm and sunny here in Halifax, and it's projected to be like that for at least a few more days. What's the weather like out in Van, guys?
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April 3rd, 2010 at 5:36 pm 112
wholly molly rock and rolly
two friends are listing westside houses, and think they already missed the peak
they want to wait on the sidelines as RENTERS
the rush to the exits begins
the rush to the entrance stops in thirteen days
mark your calendar idiots and imbecels
dr. knowshitall what did you think of the stats on thursday? guess what, listings continued to pile in right until midnight, 497 in total, an all-time one day record for listings. eat that you shitforbrains.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 5:48 pm 113
@scullboy
It's been sunny here all day. Clearly out there in Halifax it's also a pretty exciting lifestyle and you're able to take advantage fo the "nice" weather. How long have you been there now? …and still perusing Vancouver listings? keeping on top of Vancouver weather?
Yes, that's what I would do if I moved to a new city. I would spend time wondering about life in other cities and how much people in other cities ought to tip.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 5:53 pm 114
Hydrostone: We lived across the street from it, behind a barbershop at Stanley and Islesville. Lovely neighbourhood, pretty but unpretentious houses, with great people. Some Northenders looked a little rough around the edges, but once you started talking to them they were way better folks than plastic Vancouver yuppies could ever be. I wish I could find a place like that in Vancouver. It was nice AND affordable, imagine that.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 6:53 pm 115
"Walked by Pacific Palisades Hotel today. Sign out front says that they’re closing along with Zin Restaurant on April 30 to make way for new apartments."
The building is being converted from a hotel to rental apts. Smart move – hard to compete with all the new hotels built recently. It was apartments before it was a hotel, ashes to ashes.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:02 pm 116
How's the weather in Vancouver, you ask?
I'll let you know when all the fallen trees have been removed from the roads.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:05 pm 117
All you forenting losers are bound to catch horrible, horrible rental borne diseases like SARS, Swine Flu, or bed bugs from living in such squalor. It's time to clean up your act.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:14 pm 118
Arit, brick can be a bad idea in an earthquake zone and wooden buildings can last well with proper maintenance (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urnes_stave_church).
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:18 pm 119
#115 Starving artist
Interesting…reminds me of the old BC Hydro building conversion.
I agree, too many Hotels. Olympics is over…now watch the market dry up.
Remember the good old days when they blew up buildings, ahh the memories.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:23 pm 120
superboomtime, you should get some serious counseling this is not funny any more. Adolf Hitler have had less hate toward Jewish people and communists. I guess you would trow renters into Nazi camps and torture them until they switch to your RE religion or eventually buy condo. Scary craziness.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:34 pm 121
Great post by Mish on the Chinese RE bubble:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/0…
Substitute state guarantees for state ownership and it kind of sounds like here, doesn't it? The initials of both countries' ruling parties are CPC. Hm…
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:34 pm 122
NO-LYMPICS Says:
we actually own NOTHING, we only rent it while we have a pulse and something registers on the brain wave scan.
Ownership can be better defined as a scale where the incremtns are ” what degree of control do you have ? ”
Renting is the least in control, sort of like gypsies.
=============
Well said, except as a renter I feel that I am in more control of my life than if I owned. I am free to stay, free to go, free from mortgages, maintenance costs, roof replacements, renovations, special assessments and that sort of crap.
Control? I have the keys until I live here… I can't think of much else control I would need.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:40 pm 123
Email from a Chinese on China's Real Estate Bubble
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/0…
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:41 pm 124
ooops sorry patriotic guy, you beat me by 6 minutes on that one.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 8:19 pm 125
Scullboy,
Maybe we should consider the East coast… Are there any jobs in your area?
Ann:
Interesting link. Good point about the earthquakes. I wonder what the optimum solution would be. Maybe aluminum frames?
Regards
arit
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April 3rd, 2010 at 8:42 pm 126
Tim:
Funny about your weather claim since random comments, theweathernetwork.ca AND my iPhone all say it's been raining in Van all weekend.
I have been cooking and baking most of the day because tomorrow is Easter and I've been invited to a few places for both lunch and dinner.
I love this fabulous little place I'm renting and the kitchen's so large I've got a little office in there so I can watch movies and chat with friends while the pies, cakes, quiches and soups are all doing their thing.
I've also been cleaning the house and doing chores since you're curious about my daily activities. Admittedly I was a bit of a homebody today but when you love the place you're renting…. why leave?
I get a kick out of perusing the various housing blogs like this one and greater fool.
What, you thought I was only interested in Vancouver's real estate market? How very myopically Vancouver of you. Just as there are other cities, there are other housing blogs. I know, I know… it's a surprise but live and learn, huh?
Arit, there's a shortage of people here. When the oil boom happened a lot of people moved out to Alberta, and now they're stuck. LOADS of work out this way, depending on what you're doing. We've got enough forklift operators so no need to tell Kite.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 8:48 pm 127
#123 Anonymous:
Renters are only as free as their lease and the Tenancy Branches allows. Sure, they have less obligatiions, but also less overall oontrol .It is admittedly a relativity argument, but one to keep in mind.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 9:18 pm 128
Superdoomtime,
SARS and swine flu were brought here by your bestest friends.
The wealthy Chinese.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 10:01 pm 129
Scullboy
If you gotta be here just pay the asking prices and get in right away,I had talk to your friends and neighbours at Chilko and Beach Avenue. they had promise me that they won't tease you about backwater,However,your co-workers are looking for you for the advice you had given to them about renting not buying,and blah blah,etc.Now they will charge you the difference of housing prices between 2006 -2010.I would suggest that you movein to Vancouver in sort of area where your friends and kind looks like enemies type of co-workers won't be able to see you around and hurry up. If you got into trouble in Halifax there is nobody in Vancouver to fly over to Halifax to help you but in other case most of halifax will run to see you in the best place on earth.Because verybody wants to be here not just Canadians but Americans,Europeans,Britishers,and Asians.
Reknab,Rain makes this city look more beautiful,It's like beauty takes shower too often to look fresh -fresh fruity-fruity. I think we should bring this forum to an end,Why? because prices doesn't matter for the city for being hearts .Right? and There is no need to whinning about prices here.THE END.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 10:04 pm 130
Less control as a renter? I dunno.. I dug up the yard of my rental house and put in a garden. If the owner doesn't like it they can complain, and I suppose worse case scenario they can keep my damage deposit. I wonder what would happen to my condo owning friends if they dug up the lawn in front of their building and put in a garden.. I suspect the strata council would have something to say about that.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 10:07 pm 131
Ulstaman. I would file for divorce before I would buy that place on Musquem land.
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April 4th, 2010 at 12:22 am 132
Scullboy says…
By the way it was 22 degrees, warm and sunny here in Halifax, and it’s projected to be like that for at least a few more days. What’s the weather like out in Van, guys?
I'm visiting Vancouver Island right now and one of the TV weather guys was saying he's getting flack from back east claiming their weather is better. He says "I'll call you in February from the golf course and then we'll talk about it".
But let's not get silly. Canada cannot duplicate a fine climate. Anywhere. We're just kidding ourselves.
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April 3rd, 2010 at 7:17 pm 133
[...] know each other (thus my management contract) yet not ONE listed during the 2008 downturn.” Update 2 Apr 2010 [...]
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April 4th, 2010 at 2:28 am 134
Raincouver Says:
"I’m visiting Vancouver Island right now and one of the TV weather guys was saying he’s getting flack from back east claiming their weather is better."
In a world filled with strife, civil war, genocide, ethnic cleansing, starvation and poverty, Canadians debate "who has the better weather."
Thanks for reminding me what is important and rekindling the concept of fortunate.
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April 4th, 2010 at 6:29 am 135
Raincouver:
I mean this with the greatest of respect: I much prefer the winter climate of NS.
That whole "Vancouver's better in February" just doesn't fly with me any more. There were maybe 3 cold days here, the rest were bright, sunny and pleasant. We got perhaps 4 days of snow, only 1 of which amounted to much.
I was in Van for 4 winters, none of which were remotely pleasant. Is was REALLY dark, damp and wet. And of course let's not forget the windstorm that knocked half of Stanley Park flat, and the "turbid water" of a couple of years ago.
I think that's the funniest part of the whole "best place on earth" brainwashing program. It's pernicious because everyone believes it but it's really just not true. Van winters suuuuuuuuuck severely, yet everyone in Van believes the opposite.
Sure, Van's winters are better then anything in the Prairies or Central Canada. I've lived through all of those and they aren't fun at all.
Kite toward moon:
Well, you just outed yourself as Satv…. again. I don't know why you keep changing your name as your appalling English gives you away every single time. That whole knowing where I live thing is fucking creepy.
Thanks for the offer, but I'd rather partake of your mom's Seven Treasure Surprise then move back. I heard she was offering every gold member winner (make and female) a chance to own her podium for free?
I also heard she was Ground Zero for Vancouver's bedbug infestation. Talk about a chamber of horror. I hear she's got things living in that stanky nest that were the inspiration for the monsters in Clash of the Titans…
Chilled, touche. That's all I got to say.
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April 4th, 2010 at 8:38 am 136
Who is buying these houses?
“I grew up in Dunbar. I want to, one day, live in or around Dunbar. We have a total family income of about $275k. We could slap down a down payment of $500k. Yet to buy a decent house in Dunbar it would mean borrowing well over $1million. Who are the people who are doing this?”
http://wp.me/pcq1o-FO
Like the writer of the above anecdote, we at VREAA are curious about the personal and financial details of people buying >$1.5M homes in Vancouver. Anecdotes that shed any light on this question would be greatly appreciated.
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/
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April 4th, 2010 at 8:48 am 137
Prices do not seem to move upward in Kits
http://www.yattermatters.com/neighborhood-numbers…
March:
4 prices reductions about of 7 sales. listing = 43.
Since there were only 10 sales in Feb versus 7 in March, I do not think it makes much sense (on a statistical point of view) to look at the third significant figure on prices.
Note how the logarithmic scale makes the "number of sold units" look inflated
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April 4th, 2010 at 9:00 am 138
Exciting but anecdotal:
http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/daily-sn…
April 1st was a good day for bulls' anxiety…
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April 4th, 2010 at 10:26 am 139
Prices down across the board last week.
Only a net gain of 115 or so total listings due to expirations.
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
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April 4th, 2010 at 11:23 am 140
vreaa Says: April 4th, 2010 at 8:38 am Who is buying these houses?
My friends is buying a house in Van Heights for 750,000. Met a girl with a 200k equity in a Yaletown condo and they both make 80k ish. We used to chat about absurd real estate prices and "things have to crash." Then he met the equally well paid partner with equity and things changed. I drove past his soon-to-be place and phoned to congratulate him on the "investment".
There's no point in talking about market peaks, PE multiples etc because although he was once a bear, he says while him, me and others bears were calling tops for 5 years, his wife-to-be was making the tens of thousands in equity that have enabled them to move into a house. What can i say? "No THIS TIME i'm right?"
I think that they have the income to weather a significant rise in rates, so whether i'm right or not (this time), they will be able to ride out any falls. If i'm wrong (again), then they will continue to build the kind of equity that i will need a 649 ticket to replicate.
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April 4th, 2010 at 12:40 pm 141
@scullboy
Oh, right. Because the iphone and weather network are never wrong. Incidentally, it's showing overcast on the iphone now and guess what… it's sunny!
Oh… so not only do you burn hours on this site, but also others. Wow… Halifax just be a happening place. What a nirvana. I would love to relocate, only to waste my time on websites and trolling blogs… engaging with… supra or whatever his name is… and talking about nonsense like tipping.
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April 4th, 2010 at 1:04 pm 142
You don't make anything in equity. It's just a line on your balance sheet, which is why the taxman doesn't care about it.
What you make money from is a capital gain, which is was you get when you sell. And selling that condo is something which you didn't mention. If they are just borrowing against it, they are setting themselves up to crash and burn. If she really is selling it, they will probably muddle through, although I think they have a lot of KD ahead of them.
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April 4th, 2010 at 1:33 pm 143
"You don’t make anything in equity. It’s just a line on your balance sheet…"
Net worth! net worth! it will rise and fall according to fair market value of your assets and $ amount of your liabilities. It's all unrealized (non-cash) ,until you sell.
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April 4th, 2010 at 1:58 pm 144
NO-LYMPICS Says:
April 3rd, 2010 at 8:48 pm
#123 Anonymous:
Renters are only as free as their lease and the Tenancy Branches allows. Sure, they have less obligatiions, but also less overall oontrol .It is admittedly a relativity argument, but one to keep in mind.
=======================
NO-LYMPICS, I could say that owners are only in control as far as by-laws allow them, until they lose their jobs, are transferred by their employers (or just want to move on their own will), are expropriated, get divorced, lose their basement tenants etc. etc. etc. Nobody is really in control of anything, but as a renter I have much greater flexibility, and I can chose how I use my money to live a life I like, instead of having it tied up in an "investment" that could ruin me financially.
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April 4th, 2010 at 2:20 pm 145
There’s no point in talking about market peaks, PE multiples
That's right. Because their effective entry point is significantly lower so their personal affordability is lower. Would they be saying the same thing had prices simply tracked wages? No. They would be complaining they saved less because they borrowed money.
I know a couple almost exactly like that in your story, with about the same incomes, but they are buying an SFH in the centre part of Vancouver for about $900K. Both bought condos a few years ago before they married. They sold one in '07 and are selling the other this year, using the proceeds to purchase an SFH at 6X their gross annual income (assuming they rent the basement). Their purchase is by no means "crazy" — since they have made significant money on their condos and interest rates are low, they can comfortably afford the higher price.
This couple's equity gain is someone else's reduced savings. Chances are this will become abundantly clear in the years ahead.
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April 4th, 2010 at 2:42 pm 146
move to halifax if you dont like it here. a realtor did that.
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April 4th, 2010 at 3:04 pm 147
dear 146. I think you'll find that that was PEI. Reading is a good thing.
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April 4th, 2010 at 3:34 pm 148
The Tenancy Branch restricts "freedoms" of owners way more than tenants…and that is a good thing. BTW as a middle class of long-term renters gets more established, watch for even more laws favoring tenants. The right to be properly housed will slap down property owners rights in our democracy.
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April 4th, 2010 at 3:35 pm 149
Patriotz, yes they are selling the condo and have pocketed 200k tax free. Nice line in the balance sheet now, don't you say.
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April 4th, 2010 at 3:42 pm 150
Tim:
Wow, that's a lot of hostility. Feeling a little anxious about something?
Yeah I check blogs around the world, housing blogs, stuff on HuffPo and Salon. I know it's shocking that I'm curious about the world around me, but I am. When I lived in Van I'd often check out thestar.com and the Chronicle Herald. I can't imagine thinking the city I lived in was the only worthwhile place in the world.
I've been watching Van's real eastate market for a long time and in a very real way I feel that I placed my own bet on what will happen by leaving. I think real estate has gone beyond insane there, and I'm curious to see what happens.
Halifax is a really nice little town. It's not as exciting as Toronto or Vancouver for sure. I would also venture to say it's not as beautiful as Van. I used to love walking along the seawall and in Stanley Park.
That being said, I *love* it here. It's the right town for me… what can I say. I like the warmth and friendliness of the people here. Strangers look you in the eye and smile. People are calmer, kinder and more patient. with each other. The town and the vibe work for me.
Halifax is awesome because it's *not* a happening town. It's a city of small, hidden pleasures. I don't go out drinking on Friday night because it's a lot more fun to hang out at the market early Saturday morning.
Nobody here thinks the city's the heart of Canada or the center of the universe. They're just happy to live in a pleasant little city full of cheerful, laid back people.
I kind of think Halifax is what Vancouver was before Expo, actually.
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April 4th, 2010 at 3:42 pm 151
No I don't say.
They are going to throw away twice as much money as the fool buying the condo. And this time there won't be a greater fool to make it up from.
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April 4th, 2010 at 4:15 pm 152
I liked this comment from a Chinese national at Mish's site about his hometown of 1 million people:
"The average apartment (1000 sq feet) will cost $90,000. This comparable with US condo prices in a second tier city."
And the average wage in this city: $3500 a year.
Talk about crazy price-income multiples!
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April 4th, 2010 at 5:21 pm 153
FYI: in the Chinese newspaper today, on the first page, is a full page article in bold letters describing the new mortgage qualification rules. I don't read Chinese, but the gist of the story is that rental income will hold less weight when qualifying for a mortgage.
A lot of asian families have second homes that are rentals. This is not a new phenomenon at all, its been this way since at least the 80s and probably earlier.
This is going to reduce the overall number of would-be buyers of rental houses and condos, no doubt about it.
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April 4th, 2010 at 5:33 pm 154
If you rent a property out to somebody it's their home, not yours. It's your investment.
Another casualty of the bubble – plain English. And no it's not a triviality – the RE industry knows that "home" carries more emotional weight than "house" or "condo" so they've debased its use.
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April 4th, 2010 at 5:58 pm 155
>>>they are selling the condo and have pocketed 200k tax free<<<
They're not pocketing it, they're just throwing it into an asset even more overpriced than the one they're selling.
Funny thing about equity, you can lose it as quickly as you gained it.
A lot of people found that out in the dot-com bust.
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April 4th, 2010 at 7:12 pm 156
i wonder if the olympic village will be become leaky over the next 5 years. they built it quick and they tried to cut costs
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April 4th, 2010 at 7:39 pm 157
@wolfey
I have a friend who's uncle worked on the village. He said they were cutting corners left and right.
I don't think it'll just be the village that will be leaky tho … anything built from around 07 and on will most likely have issues in the future. Van RE mantra … bubble, build fast, bust, leaky phase … repeat
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April 4th, 2010 at 8:37 pm 158
#144 Anonymous
Review my reply in #110
It's all a sliding scale.
The most secure is a single retired Gov't worker whose SFH is paid – off , with no kids,no pets and their superannuated COLA – secured pension. Not even Donald Trump has it so safe.
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April 4th, 2010 at 8:42 pm 159
Olympic Village…..
The COV fired their head electrical inspector(ie called it downsizing) after he had some comments about the quality of work…but $170,000 buy out later "all is now well".
Any project with such a tight timeline either suffers form cut corners or is way over budget with overtime.
The Olympic Villages only "out" is they have to undo a lot of the work and go higher end to make them saleable and keep Boob Rennie happy.
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April 4th, 2010 at 3:53 pm 160
[...] April 2010 · Leave a Comment other ted at vancouvercondo.info 2 Apr 2010 4:44 pm – “Back in Vancouver. All I hear is how Vancouver real estate is the greatest [...]
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April 4th, 2010 at 4:05 pm 161
[...] April 2010 · Leave a Comment CondoConundrum at vancouvercondo.info 3 Apr 2010 6:05 am [...]
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April 4th, 2010 at 11:39 pm 162
"Funny about your weather claim since random comments, theweathernetwork.ca AND my iPhone all say it’s been raining in Van all weekend."
Good god man, get a life. What a loser!!!
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April 5th, 2010 at 12:56 am 163
They are going to throw away twice as much money as the fool buying the condo. And this time there won’t be a greater fool to make it up from
Yes, i'd thought the same thing too, because a 25% drop will wipe out their equity. However, i would not say it with such utter confidence – it's not like the calls here have been on the mark to this point.
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April 5th, 2010 at 1:43 am 164
163 # no olympics
could be both overtime and cut corners
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April 4th, 2010 at 8:02 pm 165
[...] April 2010 · Leave a Comment In response to our recent question about Westside buyers, ulsterman at vancouvercondo.info 4 Apr 2010 11:23 am kindly supplies this anecdote [...]
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April 4th, 2010 at 8:14 pm 166
[...] April 2010 · Leave a Comment jesse at vancouvercondo.info 4 Apr 2010 2:20 pm [...]
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April 5th, 2010 at 3:18 am 167
I can say with personal knowledge that the fired Chief Inspector is considered a genius by those who work with him. He is also high up in the world of electical standards and safety. I recently met him and can say he has an excellent, casual demeanor and a great sense of humour. He was ripe for retirement, but he might not have wanted that. I think whatever the real reason he was fired, he and a couple of other inspectors lost their jobs because of the olympics.
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April 5th, 2010 at 3:23 am 168
That's because you appear not to understand present value. It has nothing to do with market price, which doesn't mean anything unless you sell. If you don't sell, what matters is rental value. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of anyone's market call. Market tops and bottoms cannot be timed.
They are paying over twice present value, i.e. the discounted rental value of the property. That's throwing away money, period.
They can make up that loss only if some greater fool throws away his own money to their benefit. And I think the greater fools will disappear very soon and will not be back for decades. It's not different here from the US.
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April 5th, 2010 at 10:13 am 169
They can make up that loss only if some greater fool throws away his own money to their benefit. And I think the greater fools will disappear very soon and will not be back for decades. It’s not different here from the US.
I really do hope you are right – and i mean in a real-world i.e. some time in the next 2-3 years time period. I'd like to buy a place and actually raise a family in it for the next 20 years. I don't want to continue renting a house for the next 10 years if at all possible waiting for net present value to match renting. I will of course if prices don't significantly return to fundamentals, but contrary to some on this site, the "freedoms" of renting are not always that enticing when one has a family to move from rental to rental.
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