Friday Free-for-all!
Hey! It’s the end of another work week! Lets do our regular weekend news roundup and open topic economic discussion post. Here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:
-Vancouver shifts taxes from business to residence
-Booming RE market good news for economy
-Crack Shack or Mansion II – the sequel
-Ei benefits flat in February
-If mortgage rates rise does the sky fall?
-Consumer confidence at 2 year high
-IMF upgrades canadian economic outlook
-BOC: Loonie, housing to drag on economy
-Calgary gets a new parking lot
-Garry Mar: buyers now forced into 5 year fixed rates
-FSBO wants CREA protected from competition bureau
-Canadian banks want return to reform basics
-How to sell in a buyers market
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
April 23rd, 2010 at 2:38 am 1
Happy Friday all!
OT right off the bat!
We’re looking for any advice from those who have moved from Vancouver to Victoria
Specifically, any solid recommendations (or crappy reviews) for movers and storage units in Victoria. We're leaving a 585 sqft 1 bdrm in yaletown so we don't have very much stuff. Any idea what we should expect cost wise?
Thanks and have a nice weekend!
gogogo inventory!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 2:41 am 2
Listings are coming up nicely, and we're starting to see shavings off prices here and there, but we need a little more mainstream attention to get the sheep really rattled into absolute panic. I think everyone should be doing their bit to help this landslide.
How about billposters? A range of T-shirts? I'm happy to put the artwork together – shall we have a slogan suggestion and then get some printed up. I'm pretty sure everyone here would buy one. Maybe with the VCI website on the back?
Thoughts people.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 3:38 am 3
@Limey:
Great idea, I've started this thread on the forum
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/poster-t-s…
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April 23rd, 2010 at 7:27 am 4
The new version of Crack Shack or Mansion is even more difficult than the original. I only got 12 out of 16.
And here I thought I was a real estate pro.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 7:28 am 5
I got 15/16 on Crack Shack or Mansion II. Evidently, I've got what it takes to understand true real estate value!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 7:40 am 6
@M-:
Same here, blew it on the BOC question:)
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April 23rd, 2010 at 7:51 am 7
Crack shack 2 nice work!
Loved it . Will part 3 be in 3d?
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April 23rd, 2010 at 7:53 am 8
15/16 on the new one, the one hidden behind trees got me.
Love the disclaimer at the end of the second link. "we're not telling you to buy RE, but it is good for the economy…"
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April 23rd, 2010 at 8:05 am 9
"The expected Olympic effect turned out to be more of a little league effect, at least in these figures."
Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/economy…
Sorta what I thought, little league is a very apt description for the "Best Place on Earth! It's great our City Mayor is involved in the Little League!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 8:15 am 10
Dream crackshack in Vancouver: $1,000,000+
Years for real value of crackshack to start dropping: .25
Years for real value of crackshack to recoup value: 15
Years to pay off crackshack: 35
Unexpected reno cost needed days after moving in: $50,000
Jobs required to make mortgage payments: 2.5
Number of Kraft dinners the next 12 months: 300
Having your prized possession featured on crackshackormansion and possibly archieved for many more years of reminder and torture: priceless
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:15 am 11
David Rosenberg – “Every penny of economic activity, in real terms since this recovery began, has occurred thanks to the housing sector.”
Really good Canadian RE comments in today's 'Coffee with Dave'
Excerpts here:
http://wp.me/pcq1o-M0
"With all of the real growth in the economy since last summer being derived from the residential real estate market, it’s legitimate to ask: who exactly will be picking up the baton?" -Rosenberg
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:28 am 12
@vreaa: Funny, I was trying to post the same article…to summarize:
What has been the principal factor underpinning the impressive Canadian economic revival? One word: Housing. Based on our statistical work, we actually find that every penny of Real GDP since this recovery began has occurred thanks to the housing sector.
What caused this real estate surge in Canada? Record low interest rates and easing of CHMC rules. This has escalated homeownership rates, mortgage debt ratios and many home price valuation metrics in Canada to the same stretched levels the US had back at their peak.
But now, without the crutch of massive government support, the complexion of the Canadian housing market is about to change.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:48 am 13
Ow! I also got only 12/16 on the new Crack Shack or Mansion.
They've added some rather cutting (bubble popping?) observations.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:12 am 14
Inflation drops to 1.4 per cent
Interest rates to remain low,Mortgage rates will go down going forward.Housing appreciation round 2 most likely to begun from may 1st 2010,Inventory will reverse back on may 1st after expiry and sold out clearance.Executive seeing strong growth for Vancouver.Vancouverboom2 round2.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:25 am 15
I would like to thank PaulB and Inventory for their tremendous efforts in providing timely updates.
By the way, guys, I was wondering if those numbers can be posted in a forum thread instead?
Reason is that many of us are addicted to those numbers and sometimes gets difficult filtering other posts when we are in need to satisfy the addiction immediately. Sometimes frustrating to scroll thru many posts only to realize you haven't posted anything recently
I know, the downside to this proposal is that you will not get those wonderful high scores on the posts. But you know we all love those numbers so regardless of the scores, they are very much appreciated.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:31 am 16
Volcanic eruption coming in the Vancouver RE market. How can listings AND prices be rising at the same time. Oh I see, the federal government has de coupled the market from reality. I can die happy now that I have seen everything. Oh look, theres a pig flying past the window, a whole herd, amazing.
http://www.vancouversun.com/Resale+home+listings+…
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:37 am 17
I think to help get the panic rolling, someone should create a simple graph that scales down to a small size, and we all use it as our Facebook photo.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:38 am 18
all the bullz and realtors are out in force over at realestatetalks… the site is completely useless now.
drowned out in bull jibberish.
"it's different in Vancouver".
bears dont even bother posting anymore.
haha.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:48 am 19
@realpaul
RE: Vancouver real estate: "Spaceball 1 has gone to plaid."
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April 23rd, 2010 at 11:29 am 20
Does anyone have any statistics that relates the number of listings on the market to the number of unit available for resale. Certainly the number of units available for resale has increased significantly over the last 5 years. So rather than talk about absolute numbers, can we have this percentage. I think that would be valuable data.
Thanks!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 11:41 am 21
Qualitative and Quantitative Tests
So much of what we hear is spin today. I thought I would put a list together of words and phrases that quite a few people both pro and con on real estate use. Things that have no clear definition and can not be measured, but sound really good and informative. Things that are quoted by both sides of the argument to support their point of view. Perhaps others would like to add to the list.
Pent-up demand or conversely over supply
Bubble or demand driven downturn
Real Estate is over valued or is it just too expensive
Sub Prime – would that be an American or Canadian definition?
Misplaced consumer confidence?
Economical fundamentals
- depends on which one's you use to support your argument
Fundamental value
or I will pick a number and if you don't agree with me then your a greater fool
Wealthy inter provincial migration – check those Albertan's or Asian wallets at the border.
Incremental market segmentation
or just a move up market
Demographic needs for housing?
I would rather own than pay someone else's mortgage
which I translate as: I would rather pay a mortgage to a bank rather than to someone else who has to pay a mortgage to a bank.
Everyone wants to live here
yet 6 billion people chose to live somewhere else.
But again, this is just the opinion of one sexy guy.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 11:48 am 22
@hmmhmm I'm obviously being biased here (because I work for them) but check out Great Canadian Van Lines on the web.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 12:12 pm 23
Mr Housing Bubble t-shirt for $14 after taxes & shipping:
http://www.t-shirthumor.com/Merchant2/products/hb…
I just bought one and it should arrive just in time for the 20K party. Get yours now or be priced out forever. If you buy three and husba buy three, free shipping!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 12:45 pm 24
The T-shirt and poster thread in the forum is pretty entertaining, it inspired me to try my hand at creating one – it's pretty rough at this point, but I like the idea:
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic.php?id=35#…
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April 23rd, 2010 at 12:49 pm 25
Vancouver Sun Article
If mortgage rates rise, does the sky fall?
<a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/mortgage+rates+rise+does+fall/2937331/story.html" rel="nofollow"> <a href="http://;http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/mortgage+rates+rise+does+fall/2937331/story.html” target=”_blank”>;http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/mortgage+rates+rise+does+fall/2937331/story.html
"Meanwhile, that sound you hear is the clack of calculators determining just how much room homeowners will have left in their reconstituted budgets to do things like, oh, say, eat. In our part of the world, where a recent Conference Board of Canada report found that 67 per cent of Metro Vancouver households already "struggle with the high cost of housing," and devote 30 per cent or more of all income to shelter, the wiggle room would be, I estimate, diddly plus squat. I know it will be in mine."
I think the author (pmcmartin@vancouversun.com) got his figures backwards b/c there was the article last week that stated Vancovuer residents spend the highest percentage of their income on housing than anyone else in Canada and the figure quoted was 67%. So I think he got his 67% and 30% figures backwards. Anyone else agree with me? I wrote him to point it out already.
love this blog
Cheers
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April 23rd, 2010 at 12:50 pm 26
16 out of 16 again.
That's depressing, I've been in this fucking city far too long.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 12:56 pm 27
?
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April 23rd, 2010 at 12:59 pm 28
@CH: Those numbers have to be wrong. These reporters are financial innumerates. Is it too much to ask that the reporter actually know something about the subject about which s/he is writing? Even the least informed amongst us knows that spending 30% of one's income on housing is about ideal. If 100% of us spent no more than 30% of our income on housing, this city would be much better as people would have more disposable income to spend and/or to invest (save).
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April 23rd, 2010 at 12:59 pm 29
Hey crashcow, you really broke me up with the t-shirt gig.
The only downside is that I can only give you ONE thumbs-up vote….even though I hit the button 49 times.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 1:16 pm 30
@CH: The reporter also seems confused about the average price of a detached house– he seemed to think it was $650K. Shouldn't everybody know by know that it's over $1M?
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April 23rd, 2010 at 1:18 pm 31
@oneangrylslav2:
Of course they're wrong. Do you know anyone who spends even as much as 50% of their income on housing?
In fact, on average, households in Vancouver spend about 30% of their income on housing. I think the average for renters is a bit more and for homeowners a bit less.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 1:21 pm 32
@M-: No, the reporter–Pete McMartin–is correct. He is quoting the average price of a detached home in Metro Vancouver. The $1 million figure refers to Vancouver city proper.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 1:23 pm 33
@patriotz:
Sorry, it may be unclear which figures I was saying were wrong. I was saying that 67% is wrong and 30% is right.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 1:24 pm 34
Irrational Exuberance in Vancouver
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOSzuKbIl9k#t=01m3…
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April 23rd, 2010 at 1:51 pm 35
@oneangrylslav2: Nope, $1M is for hte area covered by the REBGV, which includes everything west of Surrey, including Richmond, Delta, Vancouver, Burnaby, North Van, etc. I think it even includes Squamish. Have a look at the last page of the March 2010 stats package here:
http://agentwill.com/statistics/march-2010-vancou…
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April 23rd, 2010 at 1:53 pm 36
@CH: Nobody actually spends 67% of their income on mortgage payments. That is a theoretical number based on average household income to average home price.
The real buyers likely have large down payments, bringing their mortgage payments down to 30% of their household income.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 2:07 pm 37
2008 listings Jan to Aug.
************* 1/1/2008 / 9/30/2008 / % change
Bowen Isld 33 / 84 / 154.55%
_Bby East 81 / 224 / 176.54%
_Bby North 299 / 1002 / 235.12%
Bby South 321 / 981 / 205.61%
Coquitlam 503 / 1550 / 208.15%
Van.&Gulf 114 / 196 / 71.93%
___Ladner 69 / 209 / 202.90%
MapleRidge 557 / 1177 / 111.31%
_New West 303 / 741 / 144.55%
_North Van. 324 / 1064 / 228.40%
OutoTown 188 / 327 / 73.94%
_Pitt Mead 138 / 183 / 32.61%
_Port Coq. 258 / 663 / 156.98%
PortMoody 225 / 586 / 160.44%
_Richmond 887 / 2639 / 197.52%
_Squamish 270 / 516 / 91.11%
Sunshine C. 540 / 1060 / 96.30%
_Tsawssen 99 / 226 / 128.28%
__Van East 722 / 2117 / 193.21%
_Van West 1234 / 3978 / 222.37%
_West Van 324 / 790 / 143.83%
__Whistler 382 / 701 / 83.51%
_____Total 7871 / 21014 / 166.98%
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April 23rd, 2010 at 2:54 pm 38
@patriotz:
Actually Patriotz I know several families that pay nearly 50% of their income on mortgage payments, never mind maintenance (they don't do any and don't save for any) or utilities. They're all CMHC backed homeowners BTW and I reckon they'll be paying more than 50% in short order when rates rise…
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April 23rd, 2010 at 3:10 pm 39
From yattermatters.com, if the numbers for west and north van detached are as pathetic as shown there, then what is constituting this high sale numbers we see here.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 3:37 pm 40
New Listings 206
Price Changes 97
Sold Listings 77
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April 23rd, 2010 at 3:44 pm 41
@Happy Renting: Sorry from experience I would strongly disagree. The majority of owners in the last 5 years have less then 15% invested with many having 0 % using lines of credit. I would say this applies to purchases in the 500K range to the extent of 100%. Purchases in the 1M+ average about 30 % down. Just info from strata records. Generally overdue maintenance payments(in arrears more than 90 days) are from the 300K to 750 K properties. Analysis = FTB's are over their heads!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 4:01 pm 42
High ratio buyers will be spending the maximum on housing. The incremental market (move up) will finance 80 percent of the purchase up to a maximum of 32 percent of the gross household income which is typically a $2500 to $3,000 a month payment if they are in their prime earning years.
However, the household expenses are limited to what shows up on their credit report. Households with children would be spending more than 32% because – for one thing kids are expensive and items like daycare are NOT included in reported expenses. A creative broker may even include that one time spring bonus as a regular occurrence, as well as the $100 kid bonus cheques, GST rebate, and tips as regular income. Still not enough, get a letter from your boss saying you'll be getting a raise next year. Pushing their income up, reducing their expenses, overstating the suite income, and fiddling with the CMHC computer program to get a desirable answer to why someone making $45,000 a year could get $450,000 in financing. And the broker gets a couple of thousand for flogging the mortgage to a bank.
Sub prime does exist in Canada, we just hide it better than our American cousins. It's not rocket science its just business. If you don't have someone watching the hen house – what do you think is going to happen. Just like in the USA, you have to reign in the originators of the loan – they have to be made responsible.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 4:21 pm 43
4:20pm
16,587
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April 23rd, 2010 at 4:34 pm 44
@Strataman:
I agree with this. Plus every other homeowner has also taken out HELOCs to fund lifestyle/benz/condo so that's eaten up home equity too.
It will make the collapse all the more painful.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 4:45 pm 45
Wheels are starting to fall off. A building I am interested in has a unit already reducing their price by almost $60,000! asking $750k now at $679k, a huge 2 bedroom + den + storage, over 1100 square feet brand new unit. MLS # V815989 for anyone curious.
And this is DOWNTOWN vancouver!! who said we are immune? tick tock..tick tock..
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April 23rd, 2010 at 4:49 pm 46
It is different this time alright.
Usually, inventory doesn’t build up at the pre-burst phase.
This time the glut is building up concurrently with no general acceptance of the bubble.
At this rate even after a few weeks of low sales, we could end up with 30 months of inventory.
How will Rennie and Bill explain this will be somewhat entertaining.
My guess it will start with something along the lines:
"Who could have seen this coming?"
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April 23rd, 2010 at 4:58 pm 47
@Gordon C.: I don't know why you keep getting negative comment scores. I agree with the last one you made. I still give you +1 on the ones I don't always agree with because you make good points.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 4:59 pm 48
@Vancouver renter:
The Robson TV Towers! I wish the best of luck in getting this at the right price. If they are already discounting it by 60k, you can get more – but might as well wait now and let the panic on the other side set in.
It's a crazy time – there's bound to be people out there who think 60k off would be a great deal since they've become used to these prices…forgetting the important fact that it's overpriced to begin with. Instead of overspending by 200k, you'd only be overspending by 100k – wait it out my friend, we'll party together.
The TV towers are a prime example of new buildings speculator trying to dig themselves out. There are many new developments being completed this year – wait till the flood of listings from each building come out of people wanting to exit. Those buildings currently in construction? The speculators are sweating hard hoping they will get completed asap.
Woodwards is another. Now that it's complete, just look at how many speculators are trying to dump it. The Mark and Beasely will have the same fate once they are complete.
A guy on my hockey team, a realtor in the Burnaby area, says that he has numerous clients who are anxiously awaiting the Jewel building to finish completing so they can take possesion and quickly put it on the market. It won't be done until June, so you can imagine their panic – prices stabilizing if not dropping, Jewel 2 tower will be released soon (more competition and likley more competitive pricing) and the overall condo situation.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 5:04 pm 49
@Vancouver renter #45:
Make an offer for 300k$ or so. Do your part to help the market correct itself.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 5:10 pm 50
Ok. if 67% is what everyone else is doing, let's see if I can to!
Monthly gross income: $4,333
Take home pay: $3,250
67% of gross income: $2,900
Food, bills, etc: $ 350
Ok, I'm convinced. I guess a lot of people are doing that!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 5:18 pm 51
Don't tell this to Ottawa, but it looks like foreclosures are juicing the US economy!! Thats right, people who are not trapped by huge mortgages are throwing money in consumables. Is this the plan down on Parliament Hill? Is this the next bubble when CHMC costs are picked up by the taxpayer so that the newly bankrupt can spend spend spend. Oh God, the spin is hurting my neck. Arghhhh.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&a…
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April 23rd, 2010 at 5:24 pm 52
Bad score of Crack Shack or Mansion II. 5 of 16. It's harder!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 5:26 pm 53
TV Towers = Spectrum on Robson
Wait it out, my friend. You'll find something better for less.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 5:42 pm 54
Thanks Jessie,
Its my rugged good looks.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 5:52 pm 55
Vancouver Westside Shed Price Update
4274 13th Ave W; Point Grey; 1,614 sqft home; 50×122 lot; V821029
Asking price: $1.698 Million
UPDATE: Sold, 14 Apr 2010, $1.840 Million
Image:
http://wp.me/pcq1o-M8
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April 23rd, 2010 at 5:59 pm 56
@vreaa:
Is the wood included in the price and is it split & dried?
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April 23rd, 2010 at 6:02 pm 57
Need I say more? (More Friday Bear Fun)
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April 23rd, 2010 at 6:23 pm 58
Breaking news!
This morning, physicists at the TRIUMF research center have released preliminary data on the gravitational acceleration constant for BC. It's confirmed to be 9.81m/s/s. Contrary to local condo speculators, this study concludes that it's really not that different here.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 6:23 pm 59
New Listings 260
Price Changes 135
Sold Listings 97
boooorrrriiinnngggg
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April 23rd, 2010 at 6:30 pm 60
16594 total
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April 23rd, 2010 at 6:37 pm 61
Bear fun:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CrLXEE_y_Y
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April 23rd, 2010 at 7:35 pm 62
1-0 Nice!
Hey,what happened to Freako? He's missing out…or is he?
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April 23rd, 2010 at 7:51 pm 63
Paul B:
You're borrrrrring. Go get a life. Aren't you supposed to be studying or playing with your kids or something?
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April 23rd, 2010 at 8:34 pm 64
It's called multitasking guy. Mind blowing eh? Good luck with those "investments." lol!
Anywho
4-1 Hell yes!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 8:41 pm 65
I have a feeling that Freako has morphed into Patriotz.
Very similar "style".
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April 23rd, 2010 at 8:48 pm 66
@paulb: Like I said earlier Paul, dont bother with assholes, they are full of shit.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:11 pm 67
I think Freako with good understanding has stopped speculating on crash,The reason behind it is that when Vancouver Real Estate did not deliver enough in 2008 and reached at another peak in 2009.There is no reason to believe in Crash as local Economy neighbours Economy,and Global Economy still have long way to go.There was a time when Freako use to think that Vancouver is lot like Miami but when someone asked him whether Miami have Blackcomb and Whistler on the head of their city? all of sudden climax got change,Freako had solid spin in his head.
Paul what's the final score for today?
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:22 pm 68
I would rather think that freako gave up because he had enough of repeating again and again the same sound arguments. He had spent countless hours of his life trying to bring people back to reason, and this cycle being the longest in history, I hope for him he found a better use of his time. If I remember well, freako did not even have any personal interest in the whole thing ( I mean he was not looking to buy).
On blogs like VHD and VCI, every season brings a new wave of newbies with the same simplistic arguments. I admire patriotz 's patience! He must have the soul of a teacher
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:27 pm 69
One of the funniest moment of Freako,Once i got back from work after 16 hour shift,I was trying to update with blogs and i have notice Freako posted his comment at 1:AM.He was screaming that The USA Market is Crashing/ right/ now!!!!!! 1 am pacific,4 am est. time.
I think Freako had lots of anger against American administration include Green Span and Ben Bernanke.He was monitoring more of USA real estate rather than Vancouver.His anger calmed down with Greatest recession in the history of United States.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:29 pm 70
Kite towards moon Says:
April 23rd, 2010 at 9:11 pm
"I think Freako with good understanding has stopped speculating on crash,The reason behind it is that when Vancouver Real Estate did not deliver enough in 2008 and reached at another peak in 2009.There is no reason to believe in Crash"
You're an idiot.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:33 pm 71
Vancouver market about to take off like RCMP after running down motorcycle after drinking at the bar. No way this is going to tank. Polish staple wielding bandits couldn't keep this market down.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:39 pm 72
@Boombust: Is that something constructive? why do you waste your time writing something incomplete?
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:42 pm 73
7-2!
Samuelsson is a BEAST!!!
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:49 pm 74
http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/april-2010/tradin…
8:30 comments on the Canadian Housing Bubble Crash
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April 23rd, 2010 at 9:51 pm 75
Freako smart guy but many years of being wrong take toll! freako now in line for social hosing at OV or woodword! freakos dealt with his denial but he could not deal with
"vancouver with no land making machine"
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:05 pm 76
@painted turtle: You can sometimes spot the elusive freako on realestatetalks. The only way you will bring him back to VCI is if a bull with decent arguments shows up.
Otherwise he seems happy killing the 1st level dungeon trolls and primordial oozes over on RET.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:18 pm 77
"@Boombust: Is that something constructive? why do you waste your time writing something incomplete?"
Maybe it's to get a reaction from you. Maybe…just maybe, "You complete me….get me all jiggy."
Doubt it though, Ralph.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:44 pm 78
@jesse: lol
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April 23rd, 2010 at 10:56 pm 79
Best place on meth Says:
7-2!
Samuelsson is a BEAST!!!
.
Yeah, everybody knows it's OT, but wtf, 7-2! What a hoot.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 11:01 pm 80
@jesse:One of the other reason i believe that Freako did not like this scoring between debates because it will give a wrong impression to debate despite being wrong you could have an edge with scores and that will make oppenent feel uneasy despite being right. so he decided to move to Paulb's blogs but then bunch of bears put objection on lenghty debate between Freako vs Dave and Dave vs Drachen.So he moved to R.E.Talk.I think R.E. Talk forum is not clear like vci that's why it is one of the flop site in World of blogs like thyee chee.So freako have nomore choice.I believe there is no end to any debate and the posters should be tied to his debate regardless of numbers of comments,Administrator should sit quite other than deleting abused or comments with sexual natures.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 11:19 pm 81
@Kite towards moon: Freako had some of the RET regulars calling the police. Sorry kite, comment ratings or no, you need a decent fish to make a decent sushi.
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April 23rd, 2010 at 5:33 pm 82
[...] Joyco 4:59 pm responds – [...]
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April 24th, 2010 at 1:01 am 83
Analysts are worried that the bursting of an Asian bubble could have a domino effect, stalling the growth of other countries.
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/realestate/article/7…
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April 24th, 2010 at 6:01 am 84
Canada is a dump, can't get google voice or skype here
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April 24th, 2010 at 6:25 am 85
"We want to make sure that foreign speculators aren't going to force up prices for Australians seeking to buy their own home," Kevin Rudd, Prime Minister Of Australia said.
The new rules come into effect immediately.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/04/24/288…
SYDNEY — Australia Saturday clamped down on foreigners buying property after complaints that a rapid influx of Asian money had helped make its housing among the most expensive in the world. The government reimposed tough rules relaxed in 2008 that say …
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeq…
Australian Federal Government gets tough on foreign ownership rules
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/money/australian-fede…
New curbs on foreign home buyers
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property…
Hammer falls on foreign investors
http://www.smh.com.au/business/hammer-falls-on-fo…
Crackdown to help first-home buyers
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/crackdown-to…
Foreigners face tighter rules on property ownership
http://www.smh.com.au/national/foreigners-face-ti…
Who's driving up our house prices?
http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/whos-d…
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April 24th, 2010 at 6:41 am 86
I have to admit Mr. Turner is on the roll in the last few days.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/04/23/leadership/
"The net effect of the HST will likely mirror that of the GST: tax-fatigued consumers going on strike. Paying cash. Going underground. Saying enough is enough. Hard to imagine that taxing 16 million people more is going to help the economy much. Easy to see how families with less money to spend will think twice about buying a home.
Failure to manage the public’s affairs. Failure to be responsible. Failure to plan. Failure to lead.
I know it’s efficient. So is martial law."
If it is martial law, as Mr. Turner says, then what kind of freedom we, citizens, have? Nada.
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April 24th, 2010 at 8:33 am 87
@jesse:
I just read that thread. Did Freako really disappear after only that? I see Freako teasing Austin about posting his photo or whatever and then Austin actually claims to have called the cops. What a joke!
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April 24th, 2010 at 8:49 am 88
Canadian housing market correction in the cards, says economist
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/realestate/article/7…
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April 24th, 2010 at 8:59 am 89
@jesse: Ouch! I don't know which is more sad, the possibility that he actually called the police over an online debate or the possibility that he lied and said he did.
I certainly hope people aren't wasting police time with complaints over online debates.
Sad sad sad.
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April 24th, 2010 at 9:01 am 90
@paulb: The story is that about a year ago or so Austin=Blaze Spinnaker=Tim (and whatever other sock puppet names he uses) threatened me, Freako and others with a law suit because someone exposed his sock puppetry. Of course, it never materialized. Paper tiger. What a laugh. He is a sad little man.
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April 24th, 2010 at 9:18 am 91
@VHB:
Wow, serious business! lol
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April 24th, 2010 at 9:59 am 92
@paulb:
Favorite quote:
"When he first wrote about a possible bubble in the U.S. market in 2004, Rosenberg said he received complaints from the National Association of Realtors who told him he “had no clue what he was talking about. Don’t think I’m not fielding similar complaints today from real estate associations here in Canada. This may be the greatest indicator of all.”"
It seems like people that take the time to place valuations on housing and call it overvalued always get the same response back from the RE industry: "you don't know what you're talking about".
It's not just the real estate industry though, remember when people started saying tech stocks were overvalued? "Experts" were trying to justify a new paradigm and tell the sheeple that valuations were reasonable, and anyone who said differently "didn't know what they were talking about".
He also is calling for a 20% correction in the national average… wonder what that equates to for Vancouver?
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April 24th, 2010 at 11:04 am 93
The problem in Vancouver is not that we pay too much for the space.
We're just not efficient enough.
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April 24th, 2010 at 11:42 am 94
Not to belabor the point of missing freako and other credible posters on RET, but surely, there has to be a point where preserving one's dignity becomes more important than coping with the juvenile smut of Johnny Horton and Thompson.
Had to go there just to check….yup, they're as prolific as ever, along with all the other scumbag realtors.
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April 24th, 2010 at 12:09 pm 95
As much as I hate to see prices drop, it just seems more and more inevitable that prices will drop. It a 20% drop is the national average, we really can't escape at least 40%.
In the long run, a housing boom doesn't make a lot of people happy. We are always trying to keep up, making sure we are not left behind.
A houses should be a place to live in, nothing more, nothing less. It should never be treated as a ticket to an early retirement or vacations around the world.
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April 24th, 2010 at 1:29 pm 96
I clearly remember the high tech boom. I remember telling people how those over-valued stocks were going to crash, and all I got (from most) was rolled eyes. I couldn't believe that they had "experts" on TV saying how this was a NEW ECONOMY and everything was DIFFERENT now. Pff…who needs actual earnings in a multi-million dollar company anyway? Things will just keep going up up up (they said).
The past 6 years have been eerily familiar. Except this time it has lasted way too damn long.
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April 24th, 2010 at 1:34 pm 97
stop this insanity!!
bring back Randalbard!
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April 24th, 2010 at 1:40 pm 98
@jesse: #82
Well, you can't spell RETARDS without RET.
What a bunch of worthless lowlifes on that site. Just what I would expect from a Jurock sponsored cheerleading forum.
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April 24th, 2010 at 1:46 pm 99
"stop this insanity!!
bring back Randalbard!
er, would Susan Powter do?
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April 24th, 2010 at 2:45 pm 100
anonymous (#95) wrote, "A houses should be a place to live in, nothing more, nothing less. It should never be treated as a ticket to an early retirement or vacations around the world."
In the good-old-bad-old days (1950s) foolish young men became obsessed with the cars … for a young man, his car might literally take over his life. It was what he spent all of his time and money on; possibly more important than his girlfriend, family, everything else.
Today many grownups become obsessed with their houses or with real estate generally. 'Anonymous' is correct that it should be place to live, and shouldn't be seen as a ticket to early retirement. But I think it has now gone far beyond 'ticket to retirement' or 'investment' for many. Indeed it has become an obsession and has taken over their lives. Owning it is believed to confer a whole host of ill-defined, nebulous, elusive, and seldom-materializing benefits to its owner. Somehow you can go from being unhappy and disconnected to joyfully-fulfilled simply by buying real estate. Go figure.
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April 24th, 2010 at 3:03 pm 101
Thanks Best place…..#98
Always suspected that RET was sponsored by the industry.
Who else would tolerate the kind of garbage that some daring adolescent might write on a public washroom wall.
Hard to believe that these 2 clowns are actually in their 60s.
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April 24th, 2010 at 3:25 pm 102
@Best place on meth:
You're hilarious
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April 24th, 2010 at 3:41 pm 103
Love the use of the Central Bank of Canada as a Crack Shack in the new game!
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April 24th, 2010 at 4:31 pm 104
Australia is tightening the rules on foreign investment in real estate.
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April 24th, 2010 at 4:33 pm 105
I am seeing more and more FOR SALE signs ……and SOLD signs are literally non existent.
What are the rest of you seeing ?
I think the "entitled generation" , them 30 somethings who bought into this fantasy RE market are now into some serious diaper crapping.
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April 24th, 2010 at 4:39 pm 106
@pricedoutfornow:
Good deja vu:
Thats what many of us have stated before….after the Dot.Com bomb…
Gov'ts were desperate to salvage the economy, and given the stock market was tied so heavily to the Hi Tech sector…they had to apply same principles to RE….find some way to lever and lure the sheeple into RE speculation.
Gov't has now run out of wriggle room…
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April 24th, 2010 at 4:49 pm 107
"I think the “entitled generation” , them 30 somethings who bought into this fantasy RE market are now into some serious diaper crapping."
You know something? I practically BEGGED a young late-twenties couple not to buy a SFH in Coquitlam last February.
I thought I had them steered clear, as she often said, "I'll buy when YOU buy!"
Oh well. Lesson learned on their part, I suppose. Nevertheless, it still ticks me off that people could be so dumb.
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April 24th, 2010 at 4:53 pm 108
Anyone with Rollercoaster Tycoon willing to do a rollercoaster simulation of Vancouver median SFH prices through the years? Maybe also Vancouver median condo prices?
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April 24th, 2010 at 4:59 pm 109
@swirlyman: Heh. Not only did you read my mind, you got the timing bang on. I've been working on a coaster simulation based on the Cuer Sauder graph off and on for the last week or so, putting the finishing touches on it now. My plan is to post this for monday morning. If anyone wants a sneak peak, PM me in the forum and I'll email you a youtube link once it's up.
I have to ask you not to share the link until it's posted, because I want the ability to put finishing touches in before monday AM if necessary after getting a few peoples feedback.
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April 24th, 2010 at 5:37 pm 110
Ooooh what's that smell… Oooh that smell. It's the smell of bear shit. The stench permeates rental blocks all around town. Smells like losers. Meanwhile us land owners keep paying off the mortgage and enjoying life. Next time you see a land owner you make sure you bow your head losers. If not you could be faced with another rent increase.
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April 24th, 2010 at 5:53 pm 111
"I think the “entitled generation” , them 30 somethings who bought into this fantasy RE market are now into some serious diaper crapping."
it's not only the 30 something crowd who bought into the fantasy, several of my co-workers in their 40's, 50's and one in his 60's purchased "investment" condos the last few years.
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April 24th, 2010 at 5:54 pm 112
@superboomtime: If renters have a smell I feel sorry for all those suckers that bought a 'single family house' they can't afford that need to get people to rent their basements, attics and laneway houses. Sandwiched between bear shit and paying a hefty mortgage, what a way to live!
Or they could be like the open house I saw in Dunbar – the OWNERS were living in the basement and the main floor was rented out. But hey! At least they OWN right?
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April 24th, 2010 at 5:56 pm 113
#109 The Pope
Our own rollercoaster ride? Hot Dang! Really looking forward to your Monday post.
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April 24th, 2010 at 6:18 pm 114
Anybody went to an open house today?
I just went to one, it was quiet. There was only one Asian potential buyer who tried to discuss details with the realtor, but they had a hard time since they did not share any common language…
The agent explained that the house belongs to another real estate agent who bought it in 2007, renovated everything for herself, but is forced to sell now because of "family reasons."
I did not stayed long because the house was staged, I CANNOT STAND staged houses: they make me feel like living in the Matrix movie. To me a home is a place that has a soul, not a picture from a Pottery Barn brochure.
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April 24th, 2010 at 7:37 pm 115
paulb
do you see us cracking 17,000 next week?
how do you think expiries will play into May?
sales – do you think we see a decline in sales activity in the weeks ahead (I do)?
19,000 for May?
Looks to me like prices declined in April, despite strong sales. May be a bit of a tough on though. The months ahead will be easy to call – down and hard.
The stuffing is about to get knocked out of this market. Wonder why the Vancouver Sun did not run the Rosenberg article. Someone should call up the editor.
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April 24th, 2010 at 7:44 pm 116
FYI i was talking to my lawyer buddy and tells me real estate agents are unloading there own properties. Also foreclosures in Whistler are becoming more and more common. This goes to show what direction we are headed. Hang on for one wild ride!
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April 24th, 2010 at 7:57 pm 117
Vancouver West:
Median prices do show some variance but keeping it in perspective, a $100,000 drop on property sales in this price range represents a very low percentile and is not viewed here as significant.
http://www.yattermatters.com/neighborhood-numbers…
!!???!!!!???? What a surrealistic market !!??!?!
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April 24th, 2010 at 8:13 pm 118
@The Pope:
Sweeeet. It will be fun to experience the updates to come…
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April 24th, 2010 at 8:26 pm 119
I wish the price of these properties would drop, but I have been searching mls.ca. It's just not happening. I don't see much of price drop and whatever listings comes out which are priced right. They just get bought within a month or even less.
When do you guys think the price drop would actually happen? After the HST kicks in? or?
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April 24th, 2010 at 8:30 pm 120
952 Sales this week compare to 952 Sales last week.
260 listings This Friday compare to 365 Listings last friday.
Early symptoms: Listings are on the verge to collapse soon.
In Vancouver more listings more sales and less listings less sales.
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April 24th, 2010 at 9:26 pm 121
hey paulb/inventory
no action today? a bit hard to believe.
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April 24th, 2010 at 9:28 pm 122
"When do you guys think the price drop would actually happen? After the HST kicks in? or?"
Real Estate turns VERY slowly. The bubble took years to form and will take years to burst. That said the downturn will be hitting the MSM by the fall. And in a year it will be well underway – but we have a long way to go. Look at the US bubble cities (Miami, Phoenix, Vegas etc). They are 3 years into their decline and still heavily overvalued compared to rents.
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April 24th, 2010 at 9:29 pm 123
@Kite towards moon:
Keep up the good work there Baghdad Bob
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXl1GkWWGmA
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April 24th, 2010 at 9:46 pm 124
@Ed: "They are 3 years into their decline and still heavily overvalued compared to rents."
On average true however I'm betting there are some properties selling for decent value for those with enough time and luck to find them. This was certainly not the case 3 years ago.
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April 24th, 2010 at 10:28 pm 125
I'm a mortgage borker and I'm ok. I've been swamped with requests to bork mortgages over the last week. It's quite surprising how many people came in and thought that the new rules affected them. Most mortgages I borked were not impacted at all. I think we'll see a continuing upward trend until interest rates climb more and then it will just be a flatening. If you need me to bork a mortgage just call 1800-BORK-ME.
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April 24th, 2010 at 11:16 pm 126
[...] April 2010 · Leave a Comment Unfooler at vancouvercondo.info 24 Apr 2010 7:44 pm [...]
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April 25th, 2010 at 9:14 am 127
@Ed:
Not true, do you remember 2008?
Price drops can occur very quickly if inventory continues to rise.
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April 25th, 2010 at 9:48 am 128
I think the price declines will happen faster this time. The drops of 2008 is still fresh in the Realtors' memories!
This may be wishful thinking on my part, but what the heck, it's a beautiful day, the sky is bright, and listings are a mile high.
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April 25th, 2010 at 9:54 am 129
@Ed: Look at the US bubble cities (Miami, Phoenix, Vegas etc). They are 3 years into their decline and still heavily overvalued compared to rents.
Actually it's been four years, and many areas are now very undervalued. For example, this home in the Phoenix area would be cash-flow positive with 0 down.
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April 25th, 2010 at 9:57 am 130
I like my listings increasing with a side of extra steep.
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
Meanwhile Bob Rennie has changed taken down the slogan "Everything is going to be alright" and replaced it with "Remain clam, all is well".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:00 am 131
This is an interesting look at the US inventory levels (posted by a Garth blogger).
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/24/number-…
103: The number of months it would take to sell off all the foreclosed homes in banks’ possession, plus all the homes likely to end up there over the next couple years, at the current rate of sales.
"equivalent to nine years’ worth of demand, as detailed by Real Time Economics in “Number of the Week: 103 Months to Clear Housing Inventory,” that suggests those who see signs of a recovery in the residential real estate market should probably be thinking about checking into rehab:"
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:12 am 132
Marc Carney go's 'AA' twelve step program. Says we need to recognize we have a problem.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Recognizing+…
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:20 am 133
@crabman:
The price history of that house says it all. You can see where the price went down after it was built then shot way up in 2006 then settled back down to where it might have logically been, without the manic credit bubble.
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:21 am 134
@crabman: Since the loonie was getting stronger lots of r.e. pims like you from usa are trying to lure people like Re-Esteven to buy in Usa in spin to deliver return that would be Cash flow positive.
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:24 am 135
Greed and stupidity are universal.
Vancouver is exempted of course.
"It was worth $650,000 at the peak of the Florida (and U.S.) housing bubble. The bank offered it to her for $230,000; she refused and counter-offered with $180,000. The bank accepted. The taxi driver swears the condo, on the beach, will be worth a million bucks in five years."
http://www.calgaryherald.com/life/Look+below+pain…
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:29 am 136
The only catalyst for the 2008 drop was a feeling that the overpriced market had absorbed most of the greater fools, and some uncertainty of a possible recession.
This time around, the last of the fools have been sucked in by record low rates while other fundamentals have deteriorated even further. With those low rates so obviously over, there are no obstacles left to interrupt the crash that was started in 08.
Unless we have a lot more slow learners that the rest of the world prices should drop faster than in 2008.
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:33 am 137
MLS®: V822234
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…
Interesting, 2 bdrm, 2 bath, 914 sq ft offered at $545,000.
Look closer, and you'll notice that exactly 40% of the floor area is outside patio.
Price per square foot if one were to exclude the patio: $998., lofty even by Kits standards.
Curious to see what the price action is on this property.
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:56 am 138
2008 took 6 months to really start to unravel … be patient people
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:58 am 139
@Heinz Skitzvelvett: I think the deck size is ON TOP of the 914 sq.ft. of the unit. (It doesn't look like a 550sq.ft. unit.)
That being said, it doesn't seem very aspirational for half a million dollars. Just another bowling alley-shaped apartment.
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:07 am 140
Vancouver is exempted of course.
@Keeping an Eye on the Pimps: Re-esteven is sitting at 45% loss in USA while buyer of his West Vancouver home is sitting at 45% appreciation.It is always different here.
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:16 am 141
The last price drop of some 13 percent over a 6 to 8 month period, demonstrated how sensitive the Vancouver market was to interest rates. If we had not reached the tipping point then the market would not have corrected at all. Every one percent in interest rates signals a drop of some 9 percent in prices to equate to the same monthly mortgage payment.
But as seen by the previous 13 percent drop there is more going on that just affordability in monthly payments. Fear and greed are strong motivators in this market, otherwise we would have never reached more than 9 times median income. And fear and greed will also be the dominated factor in the decline.
A 13 percent drop is a given for Vancouver. If prices stopped declining at the 2005 level, I would say Vancouver got off easy.
Its market time at the auction and its time to cull the herd.
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:17 am 142
Kite you go smart guy ekonomix school as Chipman.
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:36 am 143
@rubberduckie,
a miscalculation on my part, thanks for correcting…
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:48 am 144
Kite towards…. you listan to Re pumpar guy you gonas be in big trouble.
He (Chimp guy) know enough you foolses buy now he getses big commission, he knowed also when you guyes go broke he makes commission, buy stuff back, other new guys and rent to yous.
He graduated fancy corispondanz mail school, he verry verry smart guys.
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April 25th, 2010 at 2:56 pm 145
@jesse: Hi Jesse, not only that, cops in Vancouver get paid at least double than those in London, not far off triple if you factor in their overtime.@jesse:
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:35 pm 146
"And they can now join in on what he called the “wealth creation train of real estate” in Vancouver."
Oh, there's a train allright. He's bent over and Rennie and friends are lined up behind him.
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:36 pm 147
Primus,
Absolutely wrong. The 2008 decline in local RE prices pre-dated the economic crisis by six months. Get your facts straight.
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:49 pm 148
"Dropper Says:
April 25th, 2010 at 3:36 pm
Primus,
Absolutely wrong. The 2008 decline in local RE prices pre-dated the economic crisis by six months. Get your facts straight."
I keep seeing this stated here, that the crisis was in 2008 (that is when it was at its worst) but everything began in 2007. That is not subject to debate, there is a historical record of it.
It began with Goldman remarking counter-party derivatives and that triggered the collapse in the rest of the investment banks, and led to the credit markets freezing.
Even Wikipedia knows….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_…
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:50 pm 149
Regarding Cops in the Olympic Village. Please you all, don't screw around with my once in a lifetime opportunity to make a million! I am opening a Drunkin Donuts franchise there!
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:51 pm 150
I just attended an open house of a condo in the building I am renting in — a realtor came by with a young couple and they didn't seem interested — also a bunch of renters and owners from the other units traipsed through to look about. Nobody was talking to the realtor seriously AT ALL!
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:58 pm 151
Speed of coming collapse is going to be interesting.
One could argue that 'recognition' is going to be an important factor.
In rough order, market participants will recognize:
- prices are dropping
- interest rates aren't going to 'double dip' and save us this time
- inventory rising a lot, no rush to buy
- Jan 2009 was NOT a 'floor' on prices!
- HEY, this is going to play out JUST LIKE THE US!!
- If I'm going to realize any of my RE 'gains', I better sell NOW!!!
So, sure, we could grind down over 4-5 years, but I strongly suspect that once we drop 15% the next 20-25% will come quickly. So we could see as much as 30%-40% over two years, IMHO.
Then we'll grind down further, at a slower pace, with steady boomer supply, weak economy, etc, over a few more years.
It's all going to be traumatic, however you slice it.
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April 25th, 2010 at 4:37 pm 152
Bears you always forget about the most important side of the equation and that is demand. Everyone wants to own a condo or home in Vancouver bear even losers like you. That means there will always be someone buying and that means prices only go up. If no one wanted to buy then maybe prices would go down but that's never going to happen bear.
Have you ever been to Phoenix bear? It's a shit hole. Miami sounds nice bear but it's swampy. Vancouver on the other hand is nice all the time.
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April 25th, 2010 at 4:55 pm 153
Thanks superdummy.
Now we know what kind of mentality those greater fools are burdened with.
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April 25th, 2010 at 5:28 pm 154
@superduperbulltime:
Were you around in 2008?
Once we hit peak 2008 listings we will get a good indicator of the where the whole market is heading.
May 19, OV condo's go for sale, it will be a good indicator of the high end speculator market.
We now that all the sales right now are being fueled by the dumb money, mostly FTB.
Not to mention HST, BOC rate change.
Things are going to get interesting.
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April 25th, 2010 at 5:29 pm 155
NO-LYMPICS
Did they actually say "essential civil servants [need] to be near Vancouver when the big one hits."?
The Olympic village is built on unconsolidated sediments and reclaimed land from False Creek. This is one of the last places you'd want to be during the big one. Having large numbers of essential service workers living here seems like an incredibly stupid plan….
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April 25th, 2010 at 5:32 pm 156
@bridgeman:
It doesn't matter when the financial crisis "began" since it wasn't yet common knowledge, what matters is when the shit actually hit the fan and panic ensued.
That happened Nov, 2008. A good six months after real estate peaked in Vancouver.
So the financial crisis actually saved RE here temporarily because the BOC had to drop rates to zero.
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April 25th, 2010 at 5:53 pm 157
@paulb: #102
Thanks Paul, just don't call me funny.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_ff46b58Hk
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April 25th, 2010 at 5:58 pm 158
me Says:
April 25th, 2010 at 3:32 pm
who is Chimpman? Sounds like a monkey.
Current score: 9
Just another scumbag. That's what.
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April 25th, 2010 at 6:03 pm 159
Re Olympic village and civil servants given preference
http://www.theprovince.com/sports/City+hall+hits+…
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April 25th, 2010 at 7:33 pm 160
"@bridgeman:
It doesn’t matter when the financial crisis “began” since it wasn’t yet common knowledge, what matters is when the shit actually hit the fan and panic ensued.
That happened Nov, 2008. A good six months after real estate peaked in Vancouver.
So the financial crisis actually saved RE here temporarily because the BOC had to drop rates to zero."
Oh it definitely matters. (I think Vancouver real estate prices will drop like a two ton heavy thing, so we are on the same side, just to be clear).
Do you remember the article floating around here that showed the amount of new mortgage lending by the big four increased by less than 1%? That the government of canada took all the bad mortgages off the books and bailed out the banks? That was a direct result of the actions that took place during 2007.
"In 2007, after years of lobbying, the now defunct AIG found new hope with the newly elected Conservative government."
"AIG was now permitted to insure high risk Canadian mortgages."
"CMHC was also permitted to issue mortgage backed securities and exchange these on the open market."
"CMHC publicly admitted that it was ordered to approve as many high risk borrowers as possible to prop up the housing market and keep credit flowing."
Obviously, what you refer to constantly in your posts is "buyer psychology" which obviously plays a crucial role in a bubble. It what you are talking about when you mention the panic. But just because you want to buy a house doesn't mean someone will lend to you. People that can get an 800,000 mortgage in Vancouver would be laughed out of the room in the United States. Right now, the banks are lending to people in Vancouver because the CMHC is insuring the mortgages and securitizing them and selling them to investors. The government of Canada stepped in and increased the amount of insured mortgages as a DIRECT result of the events of 2007. Canada hasn't escaped the recession, we have just delayed it.
So yes, the events of 2007 precipitated a fall in housing prices that the government stepped in stopped by decreasing interest rates and loosening lending standards. These actions created a "support level" for prices in the GVRD, and brought new buyers back to the market. These actions had an inflationary effect on home prices, which is why the government just adopted new policies to attempt to lower inflation in the housing markets. But to pretend that the tightening credit markets of 2007 had no effect on the housing markets in canada causing the government of canada to take extraordinary measures to head off a full scale collapse in housing prices in canada is to imagine that Vancouver lives in a bubble.
Market psychology is only one element of a bubble, you need the inflationary effects of loose credit to really juice it. So if the government hadnt stepped in, nobody else would have lent the money to the poor credit risks (AIG blew up) who are overpaying in canada now. That would have led to lower prices, then a panic, which is what happened briefly in 2008, before the market was artificially propped up.
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April 25th, 2010 at 8:09 pm 161
My predictions:
1-17k listings at EOW;
2-25k listings by end of may;
3-Canucks in 6.
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April 25th, 2010 at 1:30 pm 162
Re: Olympic Village
Didya see Mayor Gregor and COV council talk about cutting the affordable housing at the Village AND giving teachers, firemen paramedics etc first dibs on the other units.Rationale is these essential civil servants to be near Vancouver when the big one hits.
This Council is loonier than any previous one I can recall
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April 25th, 2010 at 1:59 pm 163
@NO-LYMPICS: The City is trying this because they claim it was tried in London with reasonable success. One major difference, though. Living close to the centre of London on a policeman’s salary is truly impossible. In Vancouver there are thousands of dwellings inside the city at reasonable rents. They just don’t want to admit it.
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April 25th, 2010 at 9:12 pm 164
@Bob Arctor: @Bob Arctor:
Did you review the foundation design?
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April 25th, 2010 at 9:28 pm 165
China real estate hot hot hot
Seems like Vancouver isn't the only place with speculation.
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April 25th, 2010 at 9:40 pm 166
@Dave: There were apparently some potential foundation shifts during construction. Engineers obviously deemed it OK. From what I saw they had a lot of piles going in during construction.
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April 25th, 2010 at 9:47 pm 167
@elvince:
25k listings by end of may? As much as I would love to see that, it is impossible. For that listings have to be past 10K and sales have to drop like stone.
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April 25th, 2010 at 2:54 pm 168
@XXX: No, 2008 didn’t take 6 months to un-ravel, it took the biggest economic crisis since the great depression. Sales are still extremely robust right now. I haven’t heard one cogent argument why this market will suddenly tank. I think everyone who keeps saying “this is just like 2008″ is being very simple minded.
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April 25th, 2010 at 9:54 pm 169
@jesse:
I think China is headed for a serious collapse. It's seemed that way to me for quite a while now. They've been spending money like water.
Their real estate market is one of the worst if not THE worst in the world.
The stock market is in a serious bubble too…
Ordos City is a great example. How can a country afford to build a city for 2 million inhabitants that just sits empty?
It staggers me that they've kept things going for so long but the failure is as inevitable as the collapse of Vancouver real estate. And I guarantee it will be a lot less pretty.
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:03 pm 170
[...] April 2010 · Leave a Comment painted turtle at vancouvercondo.info 24 Apr 2010 6:18 pm [...]
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:04 pm 171
Does anyone know if Rennie is going to list the OV properties on MLS or is he doing a completely separate sales campaign?
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:17 pm 172
I just heard a bit of CBC’s cross country check up. They were talking about debt and some guy called up who said he just bought a “box in the sky” (his words) in Vancouver for $350k. And he conceded that yes, it’s expensive, yes, his lifestyle is different now (no more vacations) and no, he doesn’t get to live in the neighborhood he wanted, but hey, now they OWN! And they can now join in on what he called the “wealth creation train of real estate” in Vancouver. Oh ya, and his interest rate is 1.95%.
I think, WHAT wealth creation train, you just took on (probably) $300k of debt, you moron (excuse my nasty tone), you don’t even get to live where you want, and you’ve just committed yourself to staying at home and eating Kraft dinner for the next 35 years. And when rates go up??
God, I am SO sick of this RE market. It’s just a bloody place to live, not a goshdarn money tree!
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:32 pm 173
who is Chimpman? Sounds like a monkey.
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:37 pm 174
Bear, Vancouver is big town and hot money come in to buy all the time from everywhere bear. Happy time is here again. Inventory number made up phony fake bear talk. Only thing that matter is sales bear. Sales good so price go up. Vancouver real estate never go down
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April 25th, 2010 at 10:45 pm 175
Let's have a recap here for all the bears in the crowd tonight.
1) Prices in Vancouver continue to rise year after year.
2) Bears continue to be wrong wrong wrong and wrong wrong again.
3) So who do you trust for advice? A real estate BEAR who's been wrong year after year? I wouldn't do it if I were you. No way would I take advice from a Vancouver real estate bear. No way.
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April 25th, 2010 at 3:45 pm 176
[...] April 2010 · Leave a Comment AnonymousAA at vancouvercondo.info 25 Apr 2010 3:17 pm [...]
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:05 pm 177
Undeterred by onerous debt loads, herds of first time buyers have decided to follow the advice of RE bulls and are jumping into the housing market.
http://thecrowhouse.com/images/372.gif
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:09 pm 178
@bigtimebull:
Seriously, if you are going to troll, at least put some effort into it!
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:12 pm 179
@Drachen:
I think China is the next shoe to drop and it's the one that still really has to drop.
Nobody talks about China, but it's the elephant in the room. China has pumped more money into their economy than anyone else, and it's all gone into Real Estate.
There has been far less real sustainable productivity growth than is widely believed.
Once the Chinese RE market turns (and it will – it always does), rich Chinese will be flipping any Vancouver property like tech stocks in 2000.
Recipe for disaster.
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:14 pm 180
bigtimebull/kite
Since you are an expert. Please tell me the best place to buy right now.
I need to get in fast, so please reply promptly.
1.Best building to buy as an investor.
2.Best building to buy to live in and enjoy life.
TIA
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:17 pm 181
Google "China Bubble" and a number of articles appear.
Not the least of whick – recently from Marketwatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-if-chinas-p…
"Many Chinese are spending 50 to 100 times their annual income to buy a home"
Yikes.
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:28 pm 182
The thing about socialist jurisdictions like BC is that the economic system established by government can go on a lot longer than anyone is able to predict. That is exactly what we have happening in Vancouver.
Vancouver's #1 employer is government or some pseudo government agency. The employees of these organizations buy Vancouver real estate which feeds into the trough they feed from. In Soviet Russia we saw this system last for what 80 years? They didn't survive but China did by opening up it's market to the USA. Sound familiar bears? Yes that's right sounds like BC.
I would argue that the current system in BC was established as Expo 86 was winding down. It could go on forever.
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:40 pm 183
@tomvu:
What are you smoking? Median prices dropped some 30% in the early 1990s and stagnated all decade, in a time of strong global economic growth.
Now we have weak economic growth, rising rates, and prices are completely out of whack based on any prior measure, and there's a Chinese asset bubble that is looming larger by the day.
Real Estate WILL DROP 35-50%, then stabilize, and rise again in several years. This is how cycles work, and RE Asset cycles are no different than any other. They can never be prevented and never have been at ANY point in history.
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April 25th, 2010 at 11:46 pm 184
@Goldman Sucks:
Complete BS. The Australian government, just like here in Canada, is deliberately inflating house prices, through incentives for home ownership. The OZ government is pointing the finger at foreigners to deflect attention away from the true culprits – themselves. If they actually wanted lower house prices they would get rid of incentives for home ownership, clamp down on mortgage lending, and impose a speculation tax. Like Germany, for example.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/0…
Note how Oz is doing the exact same thing as the Cons are doing here – creating a housing bubble and a false impression of prosperity to give people the impression the country has ducked the recession.
BTW the reason why I may sound like Freako at times is simply because there is only one version of the truth.
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April 26th, 2010 at 1:26 am 185
Patriotz, you keep banging on about the Cons 'creating the bubble' but Harper was elected in 2006. House prices took off in 2003.
And it's very cognitively dissonant of you to blame government interference if it involves parties you don't like, but insist governments have no influence on prices when it comes to excessive land regulation, which not coincidentally I'm sure, is a hallmark of politicians with a leftist persuasion.
So, one version of the truth? Or just base politicking?
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April 26th, 2010 at 5:35 am 186
@chip:
One, prior to the Cons taking office in 2006 the bubble in Canada was essentially restricted to Vancouver. One of the first things the Cons did was to introduce the 0/40 mortgage. Why do you think they did that? The answer is obvious – to juice the RE industry and crease a false impression of economic growth – as did the Bush admininstration before. The Canada-wide bubble was created under the Cons.
Any government that guarantees mortgages is responsible for any RE bubbles during their tenure. Period.
That said the Liberals removed the upper limit for CMHC financing in 2003 and yes they can take the blame for the earlier period of the Vancouver bubble before 2006.
Two, as I have said before, and you continue to ignore, the only cause for RE bubbles is people being willing and able to pay prices above rental value. Restrictive land use policies cannot result in this – they can only result in increased rental value if in fact they restrict actual supply. Look at Germany, for heaven's sake – 80 million people in a country the size of BC, land use policies far more restrictive than anywhere in N. America, and no bubble. Why – because German goverment policies prevent speculation.
Real rents have been declining in Vancover for decades, which is proof that supply of housing has been growing faster than demand.
Those are the plain facts which I'm sure you will continue to ignore. Well that's your problem.
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April 26th, 2010 at 5:38 am 187
@chip:
Oh BTW Chip, if you want to take a look at my post 184 below, I blame the Australian federal government for the RE bubble there. Which is a Labour, i.e. socialist, government.
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April 26th, 2010 at 7:55 am 188
A 30 – 60 day snapshot of the detached market activity on the East Side of Vancouver experienced ask/sold prices in decline. Average and Median Price patterns closely match those of North Vancouver, West Vancouver and Vancouver West (Decline of 25 000 on median sold price – 3% in one month, not bad)
http://www.yattermatters.com/neighborhood-numbers…
It really shows the impact of the Olympics: herds of rich foreigners are snapping wrecks in impoverished neighborhoods
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April 26th, 2010 at 10:33 am 189
@painted turtle:
Well if you look at the previous reports , you would see that we are back to November/December stats essentially. It is really depressing if you check the summer stats.
I think its premature to call this trend change, but hey, it is promising…
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May 5th, 2010 at 8:57 pm 190
@Anonymous:
check out http://www.vancouvercondoreport.ca/listingalert.aspx for best condo investments
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