Friday Free-for-all!

Hey! It’s the end of another work week!  Lets do our regular weekend news roundup and open topic economic discussion post.  Here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:

Vancouver shifts taxes from business to residence
Booming RE market good news for economy
Crack Shack or Mansion II – the sequel
Ei benefits flat in February
If mortgage rates rise does the sky fall?
Consumer confidence at 2 year high
IMF upgrades canadian economic outlook
BOC: Loonie, housing to drag on economy
Calgary gets a new parking lot
Garry Mar: buyers now forced into 5 year fixed rates
FSBO wants CREA protected from competition bureau
Canadian banks want return to reform basics
How to sell in a buyers market

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] April 2010 · Leave a Comment AnonymousAA at vancouvercondo.info 25 Apr 2010 3:17 pm […]

me
Guest
me

who is Chimpman? Sounds like a monkey.

AnonymousAA
Guest
AnonymousAA
I just heard a bit of CBC’s cross country check up. They were talking about debt and some guy called up who said he just bought a “box in the sky” (his words) in Vancouver for $350k. And he conceded that yes, it’s expensive, yes, his lifestyle is different now (no more vacations) and no, he doesn’t get to live in the neighborhood he wanted, but hey, now they OWN! And they can now join in on what he called the “wealth creation train of real estate” in Vancouver. Oh ya, and his interest rate is 1.95%. I think, WHAT wealth creation train, you just took on (probably) $300k of debt, you moron (excuse my nasty tone), you don’t even get to live where you want, and you’ve just committed yourself to staying at home and eating Kraft dinner for… Read more »
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[…] April 2010 · Leave a Comment painted turtle at vancouvercondo.info 24 Apr 2010 6:18 pm […]

Primus
Guest
Primus

@XXX: No, 2008 didn’t take 6 months to un-ravel, it took the biggest economic crisis since the great depression. Sales are still extremely robust right now. I haven’t heard one cogent argument why this market will suddenly tank. I think everyone who keeps saying “this is just like 2008” is being very simple minded.

jesse
Member

China real estate hot hot hot

Seems like Vancouver isn't the only place with speculation.

Dave
Member

@Bob Arctor: @Bob Arctor:

Did you review the foundation design?

jesse
Member

@NO-LYMPICS: The City is trying this because they claim it was tried in London with reasonable success. One major difference, though. Living close to the centre of London on a policeman’s salary is truly impossible. In Vancouver there are thousands of dwellings inside the city at reasonable rents. They just don’t want to admit it.

NO-LYMPICS
Guest
NO-LYMPICS

Re: Olympic Village

Didya see Mayor Gregor and COV council talk about cutting the affordable housing at the Village AND giving teachers, firemen paramedics etc first dibs on the other units.Rationale is these essential civil servants to be near Vancouver when the big one hits.

This Council is loonier than any previous one I can recall

elvince
Guest
elvince

My predictions:

1-17k listings at EOW;

2-25k listings by end of may;

3-Canucks in 6.

bridgeman
Guest
bridgeman
"@bridgeman: It doesn’t matter when the financial crisis “began” since it wasn’t yet common knowledge, what matters is when the shit actually hit the fan and panic ensued. That happened Nov, 2008. A good six months after real estate peaked in Vancouver. So the financial crisis actually saved RE here temporarily because the BOC had to drop rates to zero." Oh it definitely matters. (I think Vancouver real estate prices will drop like a two ton heavy thing, so we are on the same side, just to be clear). Do you remember the article floating around here that showed the amount of new mortgage lending by the big four increased by less than 1%? That the government of canada took all the bad mortgages off the books and bailed out the banks? That was a direct result of the actions… Read more »
NO-LYMPICS
Guest
NO-LYMPICS

Re Olympic village and civil servants given preference

http://www.theprovince.com/sports/City+hall+hits+

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

me Says:

April 25th, 2010 at 3:32 pm

who is Chimpman? Sounds like a monkey.

Current score: 9

Just another scumbag. That's what.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@paulb: #102

Thanks Paul, just don't call me funny.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_ff46b58Hk

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@bridgeman:

It doesn't matter when the financial crisis "began" since it wasn't yet common knowledge, what matters is when the shit actually hit the fan and panic ensued.

That happened Nov, 2008. A good six months after real estate peaked in Vancouver.

So the financial crisis actually saved RE here temporarily because the BOC had to drop rates to zero.

Bob Arctor
Member
Bob Arctor

NO-LYMPICS

Did they actually say "essential civil servants [need] to be near Vancouver when the big one hits."?

The Olympic village is built on unconsolidated sediments and reclaimed land from False Creek. This is one of the last places you'd want to be during the big one. Having large numbers of essential service workers living here seems like an incredibly stupid plan….

Neptune
Guest
Neptune

@superduperbulltime:

Were you around in 2008?

Once we hit peak 2008 listings we will get a good indicator of the where the whole market is heading.

May 19, OV condo's go for sale, it will be a good indicator of the high end speculator market.

We now that all the sales right now are being fueled by the dumb money, mostly FTB.

Not to mention HST, BOC rate change.

Things are going to get interesting.

sluggo
Guest
sluggo

Thanks superdummy.

Now we know what kind of mentality those greater fools are burdened with.

superduperbulltime
Guest
superduperbulltime

Bears you always forget about the most important side of the equation and that is demand. Everyone wants to own a condo or home in Vancouver bear even losers like you. That means there will always be someone buying and that means prices only go up. If no one wanted to buy then maybe prices would go down but that's never going to happen bear.

Have you ever been to Phoenix bear? It's a shit hole. Miami sounds nice bear but it's swampy. Vancouver on the other hand is nice all the time.

vreaa
Member
Speed of coming collapse is going to be interesting. One could argue that 'recognition' is going to be an important factor. In rough order, market participants will recognize: – prices are dropping – interest rates aren't going to 'double dip' and save us this time – inventory rising a lot, no rush to buy – Jan 2009 was NOT a 'floor' on prices! – HEY, this is going to play out JUST LIKE THE US!! – If I'm going to realize any of my RE 'gains', I better sell NOW!!! So, sure, we could grind down over 4-5 years, but I strongly suspect that once we drop 15% the next 20-25% will come quickly. So we could see as much as 30%-40% over two years, IMHO. Then we'll grind down further, at a slower pace, with steady boomer supply, weak… Read more »
Lilypad
Guest
Lilypad

I just attended an open house of a condo in the building I am renting in — a realtor came by with a young couple and they didn't seem interested — also a bunch of renters and owners from the other units traipsed through to look about. Nobody was talking to the realtor seriously AT ALL!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Regarding Cops in the Olympic Village. Please you all, don't screw around with my once in a lifetime opportunity to make a million! I am opening a Drunkin Donuts franchise there!

bridgeman
Guest
bridgeman

"Dropper Says:

April 25th, 2010 at 3:36 pm

Primus,

Absolutely wrong. The 2008 decline in local RE prices pre-dated the economic crisis by six months. Get your facts straight."

I keep seeing this stated here, that the crisis was in 2008 (that is when it was at its worst) but everything began in 2007. That is not subject to debate, there is a historical record of it.

It began with Goldman remarking counter-party derivatives and that triggered the collapse in the rest of the investment banks, and led to the credit markets freezing.

Even Wikipedia knows….

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_

Dropper
Guest
Dropper

Primus,

Absolutely wrong. The 2008 decline in local RE prices pre-dated the economic crisis by six months. Get your facts straight.

r_j_b
Guest
r_j_b

"And they can now join in on what he called the “wealth creation train of real estate” in Vancouver."

Oh, there's a train allright. He's bent over and Rennie and friends are lined up behind him.