Friday Free-for-all!
Hey! The weekend is here! Get those taxes filed yet?
Time to do our regular end of the week economic news roundup and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent stories to kick things off:
-HST to make family life more expensive
-Housing market to cool: Carney
-Five reasons to love rising interest rates
-Teranet house price index
-Luxury sales through roof
-BC sees Olympic jobs boost
-Certified Bubble Pricing
-Best place in Canada: Ottawa?
-Victoria a real estate rollercoaster
-US selling frenzy as homebuyer credit ends
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
April 30th, 2010 at 3:52 am
Hello party people! We're within 100 of 17K, but with month-end expiries raining down it isn't guaranteed we will make it today.
But if we don't, tant pis. It will happen early in May.
Here is a fun scenario though–imagine we slip by the 17K threshold into the party zone today and then we lose 17K over the weekend because of expiries. THEN, we would likely have TWO 17K parties; one today and one in May. THAT would be a thing of beauty!
April 30th, 2010 at 5:48 am
When the mainland China real estate market crashes, what happens in Hong-couver, where all are those $ are being laundered?
April 30th, 2010 at 6:31 am
Rob Carrick at the Globe as picked up your rollercoaster. Good job and Congrats.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:53 am
Ya the link to the coaster is not to this siite though!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/per…
Scroll down link goes to housing analysis instead of your wicked funny post.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:12 am
17k is magic fung shui number that entice buyer to buy. Many buyer waiting until 17k listing hit. Once that number reached then market take off like surrey car thief.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:35 am
@paulb: Thanks for noticing. The original permalink is simply:
http://vancouvercondo.info/coaster
That's the best URL to link to if you want to direct people to the original video source complete with notes.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:52 am
Glad to see the propagation of the vancouvercondo.info Roller Coaster video has made it national. Keep up the entertaining work, Pope.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:00 am
From the jobs boost report:
I though this was funny. Tortilla manufacturing? Someone out there tracks changes in tortilla manufacturing employment? If the rich asians or mountains don't save our economy, then tortillas will!
April 30th, 2010 at 8:07 am
@mino3:
I follow the sushi index, which is good leading indicator for consumer spending. The average Dynamite Roll in DT Van was up 0.3% last month, which implies strong consumer spending growth.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:31 am
@VHB:
It's a good thing we will probably have two parties…I'll call two of my Favorite local Party starters.
1) MC Low yield
2) DJ Zero-Flow
April 30th, 2010 at 8:35 am
sushi the ultimate cash purchase and the propensity for long term debt do not correlate ……. nice try!
April 30th, 2010 at 8:40 am
That 40% off in Kelowna is pretty amazing. At the discounted prices, I am getting closer to seeing a viable investment (assuming an 8% Required rate of return, and a 2% growth in rental yield in perpetuity). My "back of the napkin" calculations indicate that we need another 60-80k off the discounted prices before I'd jump in.
I have some (Not clients, and not primary source) connections in Kelowna in the development community and word on the lawyers desk/developers' boardroom/street is that:
1) About 70% of the presale buyers do not want to complete, and are pursuing the developers for their deposits and
2) The Developer just wants to get out, at a loss, whatever…just move on before things get bad. PERIOD.
Go look sometime at the Inventory of luxury condos in Kelowna. It will blow your mind.
-A#-
April 30th, 2010 at 8:43 am
@superboomtime: "17k is magic fung shui number that entice buyer to buy."
I don't know why people mod this guy down all the time. He's a brilliant performance artist. Well, not brilliant, but definitely worth a chuckle.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:58 am
@“A-Sharp” Accountant:
Ya, the Okanagan has a lot of inventory. I think the reason is that real estate money from Alberta has dropped to a third from where it was 18 months ago. Combine that with a location where it is easy to add inventory and you end up where we are now. I think the Okanagan will recover when the Alberta money starts flowing back. It shouldn't be long with $80/barrel oil.
I think the City of Kelowna needs a good slap for poor planning. Kelowna is an eye sore. It's just strip mall after strip mall after strip mall. What a waste. It could be so much better.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:06 am
HST passed into law and not a peep from the Vanshithole Scum paper this morning, only headline is 'Campbell going to clean up local politics funding'. I guess they are being paid big time to keep the bad news, the really unpopular news about BC having descended into a fucking dictatorship off the front pages so as not to let the people think that their pockets are getting picked by a ruthless carpetbagger who couldn't count the number of drinks it takes before you go out and kill a Hawaiian family on the Pali Hwy.
When 80% of people disagree with a government tax and they ram it through anyway, is that a democracy? When a government can only concieve of revenue through additional taxation instead of rationalizing the rate of growth in spending is that good government? No, Gordo, the charm campaign is just bullshit.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:17 am
Still think there aren't a lot of innocent people in jail after being falsely and maliciously prosecuted by the RCMP? Think again. They'll lie cheat steal and murder without a second thought to cover their asses as we have seen over and over in BC and elsewhere.
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=29…
Time we gave these dipshits the boot. I think we should fund bronze statues in every community of every local victim of RCMP brutality to give people a better idea how these ruthless dogs are undermining our civil society. There should be a memorial of Djikanski at the airport, in fact they should rename the airport after him. There should a central tower dedicated to Ian Bush in Houston to give people a daily reminder how many people in every community have been slaughtered and not a single RCMP arrested and prosecuted. Having the RCMP run policing is like giving Clifford Olson a license to run a daycare.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:24 am
@realpaul:
The ridiculous thing is that BC will vote them in AGAIN come next election. What is the alternative? NDP? Sad state of affairs in BC!
April 30th, 2010 at 9:25 am
After looking at the Teranet index for Halifax (http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx), I came to the conclusion that flocks of rich Asians are settling down there too … Must be the warm ocean, the outdoor potential, and the world class cultural life. And if one is used to a tropical climate, there is nothing like a little chill to refresh your mind and create a meditative type of awareness. Halifax: Best place on Earth!
Iby3&myhuzbanby3.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:28 am
@“A-Sharp” Accountant: I have a friend who owns a lot of real estate in Kelowna and has for a long time. He owns everything from houses, to land and condos.
He's finding some pretty good deals, some of which I might actually jump in on. There is a lot of Condo inventory and the developers are very worried. You need to know which developers are desperate.
It is a place where you might find some good deals…if you do your homework and you have patience. If you thorw enough mud at the wall, something will stick.
I'm not buying yet, because these aren't rock bottom prices. That said, with enough hard work, you can cash flow in Kelowna with 10% down, a 5 year fixed rate of 4%, amortized over 30 years.
I suspect you'll be able to steal properties in Kelowna. It is massively overbuilt. Every Albertan who wanted a recreational proeprty has already bought one. There is very little foreign buying to support the market.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:29 am
China not only pricks the property balloon they stab the speculators. It looks the 'Lemming Effect' of the Chinese culture has gotten way out of hand.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/Beijing-…
It will be intersting to see what happens when all that laundry money has no place to go now that Aussie has shut them out as well? Could lax Canadian laws make us a haven for the hundreds of millions of bank fraudsters that will be undressed by this new Chinese law? My guess is ….yes…Canada will accept any number of economic and criminal refugees to show Beijing how a democracy works. I think thats called 'cutting off your nose to spite your face'. Good luck to anyone under thirty who ever thought they might buy a house ( no not a fucking 275 sq ft condo box) an actual home where they could raise children and live a normal life. The government has skewered the middle class by removing the one platform that has supported the financial and social underpinning of every preceeding generation. Lax laws and bad policy have created a nightmare, and why? to featherbed a horde of Chinese specuvestors that can't live in the country they fucked up so badly that is also unlivable that they have to flee under any pretense and turn ours into a toilet as well. Great policy Canada…………………NOT.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:41 am
OK last one.
Has anyone been following Canadas GDP numbers? They have announced publicly that GDP will grow 3.5% next year, they also announced in a much smaller circle that 3% of that is stimulus spending, meaning our debt is growing at an unsustainable rate to support the false economy of the 'goof money'consumables. Spains national debt had reached such a proportion that they were forced to cut back as it had reached a level where even 100% taxation couldn't sustain the repayment. Now look, 20% unemployment and a death spiral. Where does Canadian debt hit the wall you ask? Good question. When I last saw a forensic analysis, debt had reached 200,000 per person, personal debt is 157% of income and seniors were binning outside the foodbank. Spain also denied they had a problem until it was too late. Anyone hearing any truth out our politicians lately?
Got gold?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100430/bs_afp/spain…
April 30th, 2010 at 9:45 am
@DaMann: I'm not so sure the Liberals will be voted in again. I held my nose and voted for them in the last election. I won't again. I will NEVER vote for the NDP, so I'll likely sit out the next election.
The BC Liberals are the party of Corporate Welfare, wheras the NDP is the party of Social Welfare.
The BC Liberals have assaulted our Liberty. The Carbon Tax, the HST and even the new zero-tolerance drinking driving laws are examples of social engineering. It is not the government's place to tell us how to behave.
The government calls these programs "revenue neutral". I don't think any of us believe that. The government is broke. If you don't have enough money, cut spending. Or at least be honest with us and increase our income taxes.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:53 am
@Realpaul: Our GDP growth is government manufactured. It is due to a) stimulus spending and b) easy monetary policy which manifested itself in an explosion of household debt.
They simply brought forward a whole lot of consumption. Let along the trickle down effect which all this created.
Don't listen to the politicians and the banking interests and the paid-for Main Stream media.
This isn't real. It is not sustainable. That said, governments will keep spending money we don't have until the bond markets revolt and we see a currency crisis. Then it will get really bad. The Greek crisis is just the tip of the iceberg.
Yes…I got gold.
April 30th, 2010 at 10:02 am
Well said, Realpaul. Right on, couldn't agree more, I am Chinese Canadian but just hate those corrupt Mainland China a-holes.
April 30th, 2010 at 10:07 am
#15: "..When 80% of people disagree with a government tax and they ram it through anyway, is that a democracy? When a government can only concieve of revenue through additional taxation instead of rationalizing the rate of growth in spending is that good government? No, Gordo, the charm campaign is just bullshit.
"
The short answer is YES this is democracy under a Big Government (BG). In fact this is a populist democracy that is fully controlled by the BG. If you want to see what a BG is in a more mature stage than that in Canada, take a look at the USA. Housing bubbles and attempt to provide a house for everybody who wants it is a very typical policy of a BG. Of course bail outs and money redistribution imply here. I noticed that many visitors of this blog don't like talks about politics. Unfortunately one cannot get a full understanding of the housing bubbles nature in today's Canada without knowledge about the BG since it's a major and very interested player in this phenomenon.
April 30th, 2010 at 10:14 am
@painted turtle:
Shut up, shut up SHUT UP! The last thing Haligonians need is a flood of dimwitted and gullible West Coasters discovering fresh (and I mean still living) scallops sell for 12 bucks a kilo, lobsters are less then 5 bucks a pound, houses are about 3.6 X local income and because of demographics there will be 58,000 jobs going unfilled here within the next 5 years.
I swear to God if Kite, Supra and Grampy Tinfoil show up at the border I'm gonna fly to Vancouver and kick your ass.
Arit:
If you really are interested in the situation here let me know. I read in the paper the other day that the CEO of RBC and the Premier are hosting a 2 day seminar / think tank on how to attract people to NS. I also got that 58K figure from there.
I think NS is going to be a paradise of affordable living and great career opportunities. Sadly, all those people locked into underwater mortgages won't be able to do a damn thing to take advantage, since they will be priced in forever.
I can't believe how cheap and great produce and seafood are here. My buddy and I had a midnight feast of lobster last night…. 4 lobster for 28 bucks! How can you beat that?
April 30th, 2010 at 10:31 am
Skullboy,
Much as I love your comments and have learned from them, and as much as I love Nova Scotia, I have to say that it is actually very hard to get fresh vegetables and fruit for affordable price (apples excepted). They don't have good soil and they don't have a long growing season. When I lived there I never saw a lettuce that wasn't wilted. Vancouver DEFINITELY has better lettuce!!!!
April 30th, 2010 at 10:43 am
@Realpaul:
You're looking at the Chinese the wrong way.
China tightening lending and Real Estate purchases may have a brief effect on places like Vancouver with an influx of buying, but ultimately with their RE market stretched as it is (50-100x income according to one article), a bubble collapse in China will have the opposite effect – sucking money out of Vancouver as loans get called and personal balance sheets get squeezed.
The Chinese are tightening monetary policy, the Yuan is likely increasing, and they're doing more and more everyday to curb their RE bubble.
IF anything, IMO it lends more credence to a Vancouver RE collapse than any sort of support.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:05 am
#28 N, Clear headed thinkers like you are an anomaly in this society , well done !!! Several other posters are still on the coffee high by recognizing the facts and not th efiltered crap coming out of the MSM. Look at whats happening to the US housing 'recovery' now that the stimulus bagmen are pulling the plug.
http://english.caijing.com.cn/2010-04-30/11042833…
A, people are under so much pressure that it is actually driving people insane and
B, The phony market collapses as soon as the dumb money stops flowing
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36855455/ns/business-…
Someone said that Greece is just the tip of the iceberg….correct. Why? because governments cannot sustain borrowing without consequence. Greece was a nineteenth century economy that was thrust into the 21st without any of the nessescary infrastructure to hold back the tidal wave of inflation that occured when free money rushed in from the eurozone. Canada has duplicated the greek example except on the back of local taxpayers with a bottemless pit mentality towards revenues and spending. Our politicians have acted like desperate kids in a candy store. Sometimes we all forget the time when Mom said NO and we bitched, but now we realize that someone had to control our behaviours from hurting ourselves. In Canada we're up for the big hurt because our politicians have locked themselves in the candy store and refuse all requests to come out.
One of these days people will realize that they can afford NOTHING because the taxes have hit 100% and inflation starts to normalize at 20% a MONTH.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:12 am
"… with enough hard work, you can cash flow in Kelowna with 10% down, a 5 year fixed rate of 4%, amortized over 30 years."
I thought you need 20% down for investment properties now? Who would be lending the money at 10% down?
April 30th, 2010 at 11:20 am
In 2013, if you want to keep real estate prices down (cuz that's where they'll be) vote in an NDP government. Anything the NDP does wrong will be handled with great hysteria by the local media which will keep money from flowing into the province. This is just the opposite of how they sweep all the Liberal sins under the rug. The downside is Carole James would be Premier.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:20 am
The 2009 annual report for the CMHC has been posted to their website finally. You can see for yourself the ridiculous growth in inurance units that have been approved from 2005 – 2009 to help Canadians gorge on credit….
http://www.cmhc.ca/en/corp/about/anrecopl/anrecop…
April 30th, 2010 at 11:27 am
16973
April 30th, 2010 at 11:53 am
See you for 17k in about 30 mins!!!
New Listings 93
Price Changes 37
Sold Listings 26
16,984!
April 30th, 2010 at 11:54 am
Torrent for PBS Nova's "Mind over Money" episode is up.
"Why do we commonly make irrational decisions when investing our money, and can we change such a costly behavior? "Mind Over Money" explores the new science of behavioral economics."
Among the particpants on the show are Jeremy Grantham and Robert Shiller.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
@No Longer Looking:
If the NDP get into power, we will be faced with another lost decade, just like in the 90's. I'm not happy with the Liberals, but I really fear the NDP. Hopefully another option will present itself. I'm surprised Campbell was able to avoid a coup with all the negativity regarding the HST.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
"If the NDP get into power, we will be faced with another lost decade"
Whatever. The Liberals were just lucky to be in power during the lowest interest rates in human history. Notwithstanding that, whey can't manage to avoid the biggest budget deficit in BC history. What a bunch of superstars!
April 30th, 2010 at 12:19 pm
@CanNeverThinkofaGoodName:
Great. Soon we'll see real estate ad copy like this:
"Buy today in Vancouver. The mountains are gorgeous. The climate is milder than the rest of Canada. House prices always go up. And Lower Mainland lettuce totally kicks butt on Haligonian lettuce. For serious.
Act now – while there's still time."
April 30th, 2010 at 12:25 pm
Recently I gave an investment tip to a buddy, this tip has made me signifcant returns (24%) and no, it's not RE. I told him to dump his disposable cash into it. Several investors and I are all doing it on our own. He said he would love to but that he had no disposable income. All his cash is tied to his home. Incidentally, he hasn't been on a vacation in years. This, my friends, is what "house poor" looks like. Sucks to be him.
April 30th, 2010 at 12:44 pm
***12:44pm
16,986
April 30th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
@Inventory:
Seems like there's a competition between you and PaulB to be the first to post 17K+. Keep those numbers coming guys!
April 30th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
@Inventory:
Loving the updates. Even TSN does not update hockey scores as quickly
April 30th, 2010 at 12:53 pm
@CanNeverThinkofaGoodName:
Thanks for the compliments on my writing.
I haven't lived in this province for about 15 years. I was pleasantly surprised when I returned because so much has improved here.
If you're shopping in the grocery stores a lot of what you see is of didgy quality. No matter how you treat or engineer them, most fruits and vegetables frown in California or Mexico aren't going to make it to Halifax in one piece. The trick is to hit the farmer's market and buy local. That market has exploded in the last 15 years; there are a *LOT* of small scale farmers here and they've improved their techniques.
YOu're not going to get great avocadoes here (though I'm ripening some beautiful mangoes at home). It's the start of the growing season right now, but you can get some beautiful carrots (yellow and gold ones, which I've never seen before), root veggies like potatoes and beets,fresh spinach and great herbs (and by that I mean tarragon and sage, not… you know… BC herb.)
I suspect there are more greenhouse growers here too, because you can get some things slightly out of season.
It's a tradeoff, like everything else. Lemons are outrageously expensive (75 cents each!). if you really prefer to get locally sourcedstuff and you're committed to trying to eat local produce though, it's a lot easier here.
I compare that to Van, where you pretty much have to go somewhere like Whole Foods. Even Granville's produce is mainly from California or Mexico.
I'm prepared to concede that Pacific salmon and halibut are far, far superior to their poor Atlantic cousins, however. The same may be said of Indian restaurants and sushi joints. We have our fare share of Indians, Chinese and Japanese here but they are plainly either students or young middle class families….. not many wealthy foreigners burning down the streets in Daddy's Mercedes…
April 30th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
Derek at 30. Thanks for the link to the CMHC annual report. It's a hard slog to read, but I found one item in the risk management section interesting. CHMC uses a projection based on "equity build up" to argue that there are fewer at risk mortgages than you think (p.91). Notably, the CMHC offers no comments on what might happen to their model if we see equity "losses" if you care to think of house price declines as equity lost. This theory that there's less risk because house prices are going up disguises the whole problem. It's ludicrous.
Here's for two 17K parties. That makes 34K, right.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
It is party time people!
17,000 properties are now listed for sale in the REBGV
Now on to more important business…19k or 20k for next month?
April 30th, 2010 at 1:02 pm
DaMann Says:
April 30th, 2010 at 9:24 am
The ridiculous thing is that BC will vote them in AGAIN come next election. What is the alternative? NDP? Sad state of affairs in BC!
+++++++++++++++++
Yeah, nothing like record deficits under this current pro-business and "fiscally responsible" government. What was it the NDP did that was so bad again? I mean, besides being a constant target of the CanWest propaganda machine. Oh yeah, Clark's $1800 deck in Penticton, now I remember. Wayyyyy more scandelous than BC Rail, Convention Centre overruns, Owelympics, drunk driving, etc.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
@Paulb Are you a realtor or not? If not then how do you get the numbers? Can you share your access codes to the MLS with us? I mean, you are one of us, right? We keep voting you up to 50+ on every comment so you should reciprocate and give us MLS access.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
@paulb: C'mon over everybody. It's party time!!
April 30th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
@paulb: Ha ha Mr. No Insight. You are being a party pooper!! We, on the other hand, are having fun at our party over here.
Does it make you burn with aggravation? Does it make you want to lash out and write mean words about paulb on the internet? Does it make your neck flush red? Well, Mr. No Insight, I suggest you get used to it. Better yet, go buy another condo. Us, we're partying!!
Ha Ha
April 30th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
@Chilled:
Chilled. My point is in BC the Liberals are not Libs, they are conservatives, and the NDP, are NDP. I want a viable middle ground to vote for like the Federal Liberals ( how the BC Libs are allowed to use the name I have no idea) The BC Libs favour business over the average joe and will do anything for big business. The NDP like to tax the crap out of average joe to keep giving to the poor and in a lot of cases undeserving. NDP are run by, voted in by and are blinded by unions. Just as the LIbs are by big business. What did the NDP do? Alot and nothing at the same time. I can't remember who it was who was leading the NDP at the time but she stated " yes I do believe the tax burden should be on the shoulders of the upperclass and wealthier citizens" Interviewer then asked "what do you believe is a upperclass or wealthIER citizen" She replied with no hesitation "Citizens making $65k a year and above" Pardon me?? That is vintage NDP. Tax the shit out of everyone and give to the absolute poor.
I MAY be willing to give the NDP a try again but in all honesty if all I have to choose from is Libs and NDP I will simply not vote in the next election.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
@No Insight:
Insight, not that I'm a realtor, but they aren't allowed to do that. Not his fault though – MLS should be open, and is now accessible for a fee.
And just my opinion, but I think that fee will decrease substantially as time passes and things get tighter for those RE Agents who aren't worth their salt (some 80% of them, my guess).
Paul however, will get my business and likely that of every other person on this forum.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
I think everyone was expecting a sudden drop in sales once the April 19th rules kicked in. The reality is that a bunch of people were preapproved based on pre-April 19th rules and that those preapprovals are good for a set amount of time (I'm guessing 90 days). Assuming that most banks started using the April 19th rules around the start of April, then there a stack of people who were preapproved in Feb and March but wouldn't get the same amount under the new rules out there looking. Expect an uptick in sales over the next 2 months as these people panic-buy to lock-in their mortgages. Then a crash in July as the pool of approved buyers drops. This will be independent of what happens with interest rates.
Now on to the party! Where did that realtor go? I tell ya: as soon as you get your archery targets all set up, they start running around like chickens with their heads cut off…
April 30th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
Please, don't confuse the cronyism of BC Liberals with being business friendly. Real businesses create jobs and if anything, we need a more pro-business environment in BC. The libs on the other hand are just funneling money to their friends.
And the NDP – well, they are marxists and as close to soviet communists as it gets without being unelectable.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
my guess is for 20,000 as fear sinks in. May 30th.
April 30th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Cnote: could be true about the pre-approved guys, but this week we were still seeing sales posted that were from pre-april 19th.
They should be pretty much done now, though. If we see more 300+ sales days that would be interesting.
April 30th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
***2:00pm
16,993
April 30th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
@derek:
Some interesting facts about CMHC (2008 figures in brackets)
Mortgages insured with < 20% equity – 28.8% – pg 93 (so, a 20% drop means 30% insurances under water)
Insurance in force 472 b (407 b – 16% jump) – 73% jump since 2005 – pg 100
Annual Securities guaranteed 135 billion (104 b – 30% jump) – 350% jump since 2005 pg 100
Guarantees in Force 300 b (234 – 28% jump) – 191% jump since 2005 pg 100
Net claims at 1.112 billion (372 m – 200% jump) pg 105 (wow thats a huge jump in middle of this buying frenzy)
Their assets and liabilities are explained at pg 104. I am not sure how much of that can actually be considered assets particularly when you see things like MBS investments being revaluated at fair value. What part of that fair value is fair is anybody's guess and how they are going to change in future also needs to be seen. Anybody here who can explain these things better.
April 30th, 2010 at 2:51 pm
Don't know were the heck all those sales are.
Haven't seen a new "sold" sign in my neighborhood for more than 3 weeks while the "for sale" signs keep popping up like mushrooms.
April 30th, 2010 at 3:29 pm
New Listings 199
Price Changes 101
Sold Listings 62
17,032 is the end of the sales blitz?
April 30th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
@paulb:
You'd know better than most of us paul.
I'd imagine we're beyond the hump of the bell curve but wouldn't it draw out in a trickle for a few more weeks as home inspections and other such contractual niceties are carried out.
April 30th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
I think I saw Inventory's post a couple of weeks ago… as I recall, he provided a list that indicated a high point in listings in the spring of 1998.
I do remember a friend losing $10K in April 1998, selling a brand new townhouse after purchasing it in 1994 for $94K. Too much product at that time, I guess.
My questions is, how many more listings do we need to see NOW, in order to be proportional to the listings of 1998 because of all the new construction/population growth we have seen in the GVRD since then?
April 30th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
************* 1/1/2010 / 4/30/2010 / % change
Bowen Isld 46 / 107 / 132.61%
_Bby East 68 / 170 / 150.00%
_Bby North 345 / 740 / 114.49%
Bby South 362 / 750 / 107.18%
Coquitlam 531 / 1152 / 116.95%
Van.&Gulf 215 / 272 / 26.51%
___Ladner 65 / 156 / 140.00%
MapleRidge 575 / 1016 / 76.70%
_New West 262 / 580 / 121.37%
_North Van. 412 / 969 / 135.19%
OutofTown 105 / 69 / -34.29%
_Pitt Mead 121 / 197 / 62.81%
_Port Coq. 237 / 477 / 101.27%
PortMoody 213 / 451 / 111.74%
_Richmond 893 / 1890 / 111.65%
_Squamish 402 / 505 / 25.62%
Sunshine C. 656 / 1080 / 64.63%
_Tsawssen 98 / 204 / 108.16%
__Van East 767 / 1469 / 91.53%
_Van West 1396 / 3322 / 137.97%
_West Van 386 / 671 / 73.83%
__Whistler 569 / 780 / 37.08%
_____Total 8724 / 17027 / 95.17%
April 30th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
"I do remember a friend losing $10K in April 1998, selling a brand new townhouse after purchasing it in 1994 for $94K. Too much product at that time, I guess."
Too much product was right. We bought in Cloverdale in 1995. Then the market turned. Health and other circumstances forced us to sell in 2001. Ouch, ouch, ouch, big ouch. Hey, guess what? Real estate goes down!!!
April 30th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
Remembering the old days…I mean a year ago…worth a listen bulls and bears.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgnRiXnk3mE&NR…
April 30th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Similar issue in Edmonton and Calgary
April 30th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
Gotta love the enthusiasm in here and personally I enjoy watching the supply creep up steadily, day after day after day.
I am one of the rare people for whom a sharp market correction will be a double edged sword; I have had a liquid financial position for several years, waiting for prices to make some type of sense to me. On the other hand, I have no delusions and know for certain that the irrational market such as exists currently in Vancouver and surrounding areas has positively impacted on my personal income.
A friend of mine, who used to work at Goldman of all places, once repeated a popular saying to me that has stuck in my head to this day: "The market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent". I am man enough to say that if Vancouver real estate was a financial instrument I could bet against, I would be absolutely busted out, bankrupt and finished by now.
Prices stopped making sense to me over 5 years ago and I analyze real estate for a living.. imagine how it feels for me to have been telling people "bad idea" in 2005/2006 given what the market has done since then.
Perception becomes reality and the current perception still has an irrationally positive outlook. So although I believe that prices must eventually trend lower so that some semblance of a logical relationship between rents and incomes is re-established, I would not be surprised if it took longer than what many here are predicting.
What will really be interesting is when the popular consensus shifts from the current paper gain induced euphoric mania nurtured by every real estate pimp to a more realistic perspective. Something along the lines of "holy fuck I owe the bank 650k and the house across the street just sold for 500k".
That is when I will be throwing my parties.. because I am sick like that. Listings are great but foreclosures, insolvency, and the complete financial ruination of "investors" are what will have me partying like there is no tomorrow.
April 30th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
"A friend of mine, who used to work at Goldman of all places, once repeated a popular saying to me that has stuck in my head to this day: “The market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent”.
The saying is, actually, "The market can stay IRRATIONAL longer than you can stay solvent".
Wrong is good, though.
April 30th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
From Globe and Mail:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
Let the spin begin!!
April 30th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
@Bubble Lad: This is a series of great G&M articles from UofT Rotman professors on the flawed economics of property investment. I emailed one of the authors of a previous article and he's going to post a few more in the coming weeks and months.
The professor's comment to me: even total returns on property investment are horrible compared to stock market returns. I'm interested to hear from him why, as in theory housing should have a similar risk-adjusted total return compared to stocks.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:31 pm
"The ridiculous thing is that BC will vote them in AGAIN come next election. What is the alternative? NDP? Sad state of affairs in BC!"
I'm not voting in ANY election ever again. Those who believe there is a real choice are delusional. I'm also sick of hearing the same old worn out saw that if you don't vote then Stalin is going to take over and we will have a dictatorship. According to Bill Vanderzalm we already have one but that's no secret to any of us on this thread
I want to start a campaign to NOT get out the vote so that the next party that gets in office can never say they have a majority of citizens supporting them. I'd want to aim for a 25% voter turnout as a rejection of the system itself.
April 30th, 2010 at 6:56 pm
@No More Gordocracies: I’m not voting in ANY election ever again.
Then you my friend are a sucker. You're doing exactly what those in power would hope you would do, act apathetically other than the occasional rant.
If you want to change things you have to vote. If there are no options you approve of, spoil your ballot or vote for the longest shot. Do you really think the gov cares that a majority doesn't support them if they aren't voting? No. The only people that matter to politicians are voters.
Inaction isn't a solution, it's a cop-out.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:08 pm
Happy 17k Everyone!
I think it was Joycer who started a rollercoaster video play inventory. Here's an update:
Vimeo: 4,314 views
YouTube: 4,494 views
I'm going to post a link to it on some other sites to see if I can get it more exposure: http://vancouvercondo.info/coaster
April 30th, 2010 at 7:25 pm
Kelowna Housing Armaggedon ( site is down for repairs ) predicted this over a year ago.
Kelowna RE is a microcosm of what will soon be widespread.
My cycnicsm/suspicion re: Kelowna goes back to when the Coquihalla Highway was built around Expo 86 . Granted, the Hope Princeton Hwy was and still is a goat trail, but I claim that Bill Bennett Socreds knew about the offshore influx and figured all those Vanouverites etc selling out would have to go somewhere. If you build a better highway they will come.
Okanagan for years was a "have not" area, and the WAC Bennett Socreds had big $$$ incentives to attract industry up there. Nothing's changed, the main drag is nothing but traffic lights and strip malls.
The whole humpty -dumpty Kelowna economy is due for a big fall.
White Rock (Kelowna West)is crying the blues it hasn't a diversified economy, too many retirees and that all the stores(aka Tax Base) have skipped over to South Surrey.
Personally, Kelowna is a desert with a big lake …whoopee !!!!
April 30th, 2010 at 7:40 pm
Someone at GreaterFool pointed out this article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8653949.stm
"Everyone took the property drug at the same time"
The situation sounds eerily familiar to me. Though, from what I understand, Ireland HAD the high immigration to support high prices (if you had an EU passport, you could legally work in Ireland, so lots of people coming from the Eastern Bloc countries) I spent some time working in Ireland in the earlier part of the 2000s, and things were sure going strong there. I thought if any country could make it, it would be Ireland (strong immigration, govt tax breaks for moving/starting a company in the country, a highly-educated workforce)
All we have in Vancouver is rumours of Asian immigrants who come here with suitcases of money to buy expensive houses that look more like crackshacks than mansions.
The failure of Ireland certainly does not bode well for Canada.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:41 pm
Re HST:
I have to wonder if Vander Zalm is in cahoots with Campbell…
There is nothing any petition can do to obligate the Liberals to revoke the HST. If, by some miracle the Liberals did revoke it, the Feds would demand their $1+ Billion " HST bribe " payment back. The Liberals don't have that kinda cash.
IMHO, the Feds knew this all along…they knew the economy would collapse ….. even " Booming Olympic – Hosting B.C. " and they had to find new revenue sources.
Conclusion: HST is more proof that the RE shit will hit the fan.
April 30th, 2010 at 7:50 pm
Keep in mind that the current( past? )housing boom was unparalleled in the annals of modern history, given the Gov't took an active role in using the CMHC to fuel it.
In the late 1970's early 1980's such programs as MURB's helped fuel that boom, but , given the laws of supply and demand, high interest rates (20+ % ) cooled off demand. In the mid-1980's, offshore investment skewed the market.
In the 2000's Canada tried to stir up both domestic and foreign demand with this faux economy and CMHC as the ultimate fall guy.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
@NO-LYMPICS:
Kelowna is disgusting, and yet their real estate went through the roof at exactly the same time as ours did and that little craphole became one of the most expensive cities in the world. Ain't that a coincidence?
Does Kelowna also have stupid cheerleaders that claim everyone wants to live there, rich Asians are buying up everything, they're running out of land, it's different there, etc, etc, etc….?
OR WAS IT JUST THE ALL-TIME-LOW INTEREST RATES, FOR FUCKS SAKES!?
April 30th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
A bit off topic, but on the topic of Gov'ts are NUTZ
There is a Bill ( C- 232 ) before the Senate that anyone appointed to the Supreme Court would have to be fluent in both English and French. There are 9 Supreme Court judges, and Quebec is the only province guaranteed 3 judges.
The candidates not only have to be fluent, they have to be prepared to understand oral arguments of very complex legal cases without benefit of translation.
This would limit the talent pool for judges ,merit and excellence mean little if anything, and skew the appointees, and favour Central and Eastern Canada as the pool for judges, and shut out the West from which traditionally 2 judges are picked.
This is apparently an NDP Bill supported by the Liberals and the Bloc Quebcois. As many of us now,Trudeau set up the constitution so that the Courts, not the politicians, are the center of what happens in Canada.
WTF has happened to this country ?
April 30th, 2010 at 8:21 pm
One of my favorite commentators Denielle Park on the Stirling Faux show again, link:
http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/goldradio…
The Topic: The Canadian Recovery Myth
Definately worth a listen.
Also check out her website: jugglingdynamite.com
April 30th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
@Best place on meth:
OK ……KELOWNA was RE sphincter's landing point for 25 years….even before low interest rates. Too many people got sucked into living up there. We were up in the Penticton area a couple of years ago in November….it's DEAD…where is everyone ? TIP: check out these areas in the off season…ie those 4 weeks when its not freezing, cold, raining, or forest are burning.
Vernon just announced that due to lowest water levels in 41 years, you can't fill your swimming pool .
PS Keep that fire insurance policy up to date !!!
April 30th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
@NO-LYMPICS: It's not just the $1.6B they'd have to pay back. They have to legally give the Feds 18 months notice to pull out and this 18 months begins from the end of the calendar quarter in which the notice was given. That is, if Gordo gives notice to pull out tomorrow, the earliest we could legally pull out would be 18 months from june 30 2010, which puts us to Dec 31, 2011. At this point we'd not only have to pay back the $1.6B, but also the extra revenue that would have been collected under the new act, which I can guarantee you will be in the Billions per year.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:27 pm
The weakness of the Vancouver real estate is going to start to show any day now.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:51 pm
50 DaMann Says:
April 30th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
@Chilled:
Chilled. My point is in BC the Liberals are not Libs, they are conservatives, and the NDP, are NDP. I want a viable middle ground to vote for like the Federal Liberals ( how the BC Libs are allowed to use the name I have no idea) The BC Libs favour business over the average joe and will do anything for big business. The NDP like to tax the crap out of average joe to keep giving to the poor and in a lot of cases undeserving. NDP are run by, voted in by and are blinded by unions. Just as the LIbs are by big business. What did the NDP do? Alot and nothing at the same time. I can’t remember who it was who was leading the NDP at the time but she stated ” yes I do believe the tax burden should be on the shoulders of the upperclass and wealthier citizens” Interviewer then asked “what do you believe is a upperclass or wealthIER citizen” She replied with no hesitation “Citizens making $65k a year and above” Pardon me?? That is vintage NDP. Tax the shit out of everyone and give to the absolute poor.
I MAY be willing to give the NDP a try again but in all honesty if all I have to choose from is Libs and NDP I will simply not vote in the next election.
+++++++++++++++++++++
And my ONLY point is that no one, I mean no one can claim 'Conservative' type governments are fiscally responsible and good economic managers. After Mulroney, Bush Sr, Bush Jr, Harper, Campbell it has been proven time and time again that Conservative governments are fiscally incompetent. Yet somehow people such as yourself still present the NDP as a even "worse choice". The facts just don't support your arguement. Not one bit. The last NDP government got toasted by CanWest Global for who they were, not what they did.
April 30th, 2010 at 8:57 pm
#74
ditto…as an ex-Londoner I can tell you that those guys took the drug earlier…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/…
April 30th, 2010 at 9:01 pm
@Jun:You are right and here we can see how and where the weekness is hiding..
April 23rd- 16594
April 30th-17,032
Gain in listings 438
Gain in sales 802
Figures clearly state that magnitudes of listings is slowing down that is being the reason to bring sales numbers little lower but higher compare to gain in inventory.You may going to notice that there won't be much difference between sell list ratio compare to most recent weeks.I believe that Sell list ratio is good to define the strength of sales regardless how the slaes and listings react in any seasons.
We might don't want to ignore the fact that total numbers of sales this month has reached beyond 4000 sales also the board won't add too many sales to already mind blowing sales results so they will rather include the most recent sales into next month that way we can creat two legs against each month.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:09 pm
My husband and I are currently looking for new rental accommodations. I put an ad up in the housing wanted section of Craigslist and got back 3 responses within 24 hours. (I was very picky with my wants and made it clear that anyone looking to sell in the next few years need not apply.)
2 of the responses were from owners who were going to be living in the basement of the house. One of them told me that they had just purchased the place and would be living in the basement once the current tenants left.
Insanity. I wonder how long until these places are back up for sale. As my husband says "If I buy a house I don't want to have to have someone living underneath me so that I can afford to live there. I sure as hell don't want to have to live with someone on top of me."
April 30th, 2010 at 9:10 pm
Bear sales up and listing down just as many here said would happen. Supply feed demand bears and now market on fire like herpes flareup. Watch for upward sloping market for rest of year and then big boom again next spring.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
You know, the higher listings get the less our resident trolls bother me. In fact now that we're over 17k I find a lot more humor in their posts. I might even start to +1 them when we hit 20k.
Kite's math is awesome. Who would have thought math could be used to make people angry by doing it wrong on purpose. Next time someone complains that they're not going to use math for anything I'll be sure to pipe up and say "but what if you want to be an internet troll?"
April 30th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
@Mike:
Couldn't disagree more. Our negative savings rate means we need more taxation on consumption, not production.
That means the carbon tax, the HST, and yes a return to a 7% GST. I would like to see higher property taxes, too, as they are the only taxes that cannot be evaded and they do not represent a tax on production.
Suck it up people.
BTW everyone wants to cut government spending, it's just that people don't agree on what to cut. I for example opposed the Olympics from the start, but 2/3 of Vancouver's voters disagreed with me. Any person who complains about taxes and supported the Olympics, which of course was the biggest spending binge this city and province have ever seen, is full of it IMHO.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
@Joycer: This math is good as long as you don't have anything to replace it.Also,You may have wish the following..
1.Deadline was may 19th instead of april 19th.
2.If there was no other financial institution other than Royal Bank and Td Canada Trust.
OR
3.It was good to be a homeowner instead of being on the opposite side .
April 30th, 2010 at 9:39 pm
@patriotz: Only 300,000 or so eligible voters took part in the plebiscite. The other 2,500,000 or so BC voters had no say on the matter and received little in the way of direct benefits, save the "promise" of future economic growth.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:43 pm
@chopper:
Thanks for the added detail:
In other words, the HST is here $%#@ forever.
That's how these pricks set these things up so they can never be undone.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:54 pm
DaMann and Chilled:
We don't have a Conservative gov't , we have a gov't that tries to bait and switch via " If I'm not NDP, I must be conservative by default, so vote for me ".
And BTW no I am NO supporter of the NDP.
Campbell and Co. are this new mutant breed that use the public as guarantors to line the pockets of their elite friends. ie P3 projects, private power generation, Olympics etc.
There is no trickle down, its simply shake down.
We have no option, we are screwed either way.
We need a non – partisan Solidarity march like in the 1980's to scare the bejeezuz out of these morons. Campbel is showing signs of a Caesar complex….and we all know how that went.
April 30th, 2010 at 10:13 pm
@Joycer: I stupid bear give all troll +2!
April 30th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
@astarte: The part that surprises me: You put up a 'rental wanted' ad and got 3 replies? Normally the vast majority of those ads get zero replies.
Just more evidence of a rental glut.
April 30th, 2010 at 11:11 pm
@AACI:
The same here. The market has been out of whack for a long time and I have been talking with people about the bubble since at least 2004/2005. When the US bubble popped, I hoped that the canadian housing market will follow. It did initially and then the government screwed it up. Deficits, high debt, rising bankruptcies – all that does not matter, because as long as real estate prices go up, the government will be seen as a success by most of the sheepvestors.
May 1st, 2010 at 12:13 am
@Kite towards moon: Is it just me or is Kite's english getting better?
May 1st, 2010 at 12:16 am
@crashcow: sorry, my bad. I was reading the wrong post.
May 1st, 2010 at 1:07 am
NO-LYMPICS Says:
April 30th, 2010 at 9:54 pm
DaMann and Chilled:
We don’t have a Conservative gov’t , we have a gov’t that tries to bait and switch via ” If I’m not NDP, I must be conservative by default, so vote for me “.
And BTW no I am NO supporter of the NDP.
Campbell and Co. are this new mutant breed that use the public as guarantors to line the pockets of their elite friends. ie P3 projects, private power generation, Olympics etc.
There is no trickle down, its simply shake down.
We have no option, we are screwed either way.
We need a non – partisan Solidarity march like in the 1980’s to scare the bejeezuz out of these morons. Campbel is showing signs of a Caesar complex….and we all know how that went.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yes, screwed either way, how comforting. I have a better idea; vote in a NDP or NDP type government at the *top* of an economic cycle for a change. Maybe even get the average BC resident to put down the pipe, turn off the hockey game and fucking pay attention?
BC has a long history of voting in pro labour, "socialist" governments during the downswing of an economic cycle. Once in office the media blames the current conditions on the current government conveniently ignoring recent history. Business turns off the taps as they are simply in a tiff. Pissed off because of things like labour standards or rental controls that will "bankrupt" them. For example, how can daily front page stories on an issue not sway public opionion? Think fast ferries. Christ, The Province started running stories on the size of the waves created by these boats. Nuts.
Politics in BC is nothing less than a class war. I just get extreemly frustrated with those who have no idea what side of the fence they are on. Those who act as minion men for big business because they really liked thier professor and swallowed the rhetoric, hook line and sinker. Hey, I'll admit I voted for Mulroney, but you know what? I saw the light.
I personally have run my own business, worked in union jobs, worked in a public sector CUPE job and currently work non-union in technology. I see value in what all of these players contribute and don't place one over the other. But if there ever is a real "class war" I know I will be siding with the working middle class and not those who have led the world down the path we are on.
I'm also old enough to know that conservative governments have failed us miserably. Locally, nationally and internationally. It is time to elect an NDP government and agressively act against a biased media who will not give them a chance.
May 1st, 2010 at 1:18 am
" Yet somehow people such as yourself still present the NDP as a even “worse choice”. The facts just don’t support your arguement. Not one bit. The last NDP government got toasted by CanWest Global for who they were, not what they did."
You read some tosh around here but this takes the cake. Some history:
During the NDP's reign in the 90s BC came last in provincial job creation, had the highest unemployment rate every year of the decade except 1990, had the highest marginal tax rate in North America, doubled its debt ad lost 10,000 people a year in net out-migration.
They were among the worst government's to ever a govern a civilized democracy. True, Campbell bites and his govt gets worse by the month but to think the NDP is a better choice is lunacy. BC is truly f**cked in its choices.
May 1st, 2010 at 1:36 am
kal
"If you want to change things you have to vote."
I AM changing things. I'm not voting! Just because you were indoctrinated by your teachers and parents and the MSM into participating in a rigged game, rigged elections, doesn't mean I have to follow blindly. Vote if you want to. I'm 60 and have already found out that there is no such thing as a two party system, they are all the same…crooks..and they do what they want anyway. I'm not playing that stupid game anymore. Oh my, if I don't vote surely Stalin is going to take over Ottawa LOLOL
You sound young….enjoy your world. I've seen enough BS in my lifetime and am opting out of voting unless say, if I was in the USA I might vote for Ron Paul. Canada doesn't have any leaders with any integrity so I'll sit back on election day and pop a cold one.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:58 pm
[...] AACI at vancouvercondo.info 30 Apr 2010 4:32 pm – [...]
April 30th, 2010 at 10:09 pm
[...] AACI at vancouvercondo.info 30 Apr 2010 4:32 pm – [...]
May 1st, 2010 at 7:58 am
nonymouse (29 Apr 2010 10:24 am) alerted us to signs regarding the Housing bubble on Denman, and has now kindly sent along images for the archives:
Bears Take It To The Streets –
"Vancouver Housing Bubble Ready To Pop!" Signs In Downtown Core
Images:
http://wp.me/pcq1o-NK
Thanks, nonymouse
May 1st, 2010 at 8:11 am
@chip: "lost 10,000 people a year in net out-migration"
Why must you turn this place into a house of lies? Look at the wonderful graph Pope put up earlier this year.
"had the highest unemployment rate every year of the decade"
The '90s had significantly lower unemployment than the '80s, which was under Social Credit rule. In the technology sector the mid to late '90s were some of the best in BC's history. Based on the work by VHB we know the low unemployment of the 2000s was primarily due to increased leverage related to an unsustainable property bubble.
"had the highest marginal tax rate in North America"
Really? Source please. If so I don't think most people in BC would have been crying too hard. The highest marginal tax rate is for well above the median personal income.
You get +1 for political spin but -10 for the lack of truthiness.
May 1st, 2010 at 8:20 am
@chip: Well I've never voted for the NDP before, but you've convinced me. This sounds like the perfect catalyst for a massive housing bust, I'll definately be voting NDP in the next election. Heck I may even volunteer to help out their campaign if half of what you claim is true.
May 1st, 2010 at 8:24 am
@Chilled:
Chilled, Some fair points. But there is no way I will vote NDP with people like Carol James at the helm, she is simply not a leader. Time and time again the NDP make brutal choices of who they want to lead the party. I am so done with the Liberals. I may give NDP a chance but not until they get some leadership, right now they have none.
May 1st, 2010 at 8:56 am
Honestly, who gives a shit about a political leaders personality? What are you looking for, a smooth talking good looking person who will say all the things that make you feel warm and fuzzy inside?
Carole James doesn't impress me either but I don't vote for the leader, I vote for the policies of the party.
And I will ALWAYS take the policies of a party that supports the workers over the party that fleeces us to line the pockets of their corporate buddies.
ALWAYS!
May 1st, 2010 at 8:57 am
Still not a peep from the Vanshitzone Scum about the ramming through of HST legislation…..very suspicious. They are talking about corruption lately, what about their own.
May 1st, 2010 at 9:22 am
Anybody know of a place where we can enjoy the 17K party without all the political whining?
May 1st, 2010 at 9:24 am
Mish posted an email he got regarding a condo complex in Redmond Washington. I expect the same situation in Vancouver. Tune in to the CBC news in 2011!
Hi Mish
I am good friends with an owner in the Riverwalk at Redmond condo complex and I also used to rent there, which is how I got wind of this story.
It turns out the developer sold out the complex, dissolved his LLC, and is living somewhere in the Caribbean. Meanwhile, unit owners are in the hole by as much as 50% of their purchase price, not counting needed repairs of as much as $50,000 per unit.
There are major defects that require about $4.1 million in renovation work to address underlying ‘envelope’ issues that cause leaks and mold issues in 11 units. The consultants said the exterior on the entire complex had to be replaced.
The home owners association (HOA) discussed five alternatives.
1) Sue the developer. Since the developer left the country so there’s no one to sue.
2) Pay the $4.1 million maintenance with a loan. However, no bank will issue a loan because the HOA fund has a high delinquency rate and not everyone is paying their dues nor are they paying on time.
3) Make each home owner pay approximately $45,000. Who would be willing to do that when everyone's mortgage is seriously underwater?
4) Liquidate the entire complex, forcing everyone into foreclosure.
5) Opt for Band-Aid fixes. Go into each unit, rip it apart and fix the problem. However, the consultants have said that the damages will eventually spread to all units because the problem is structural. The HOA has gone this route in the past but the problems in 11 units keep coming back.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/0…
May 1st, 2010 at 9:36 am
One thing scares me about the BCNDP right now: their extreme "gender equity" crap. If you a straight white man, you can forget running in a winnable seat. It also invites top-down meddling in local district decisions. This doesn't bode well for what CJ might do to the provincial public service, which is already up to its eyeballs in political correctness. CJ and that policy must go before they are ready to govern. Sadly, I don't see another Mike Harcourt-caliber leader in the wings. Just some guy who makes juice, and can't run anyhow unless he got a sex change.
May 1st, 2010 at 9:58 am
An article on our disappointing post-Owelympics economy:
"We could go on with those mediocre numbers. But it's obvious. Despite our sky-high rankings as a great place to live, we're sort of a middling economy, lagging in productivity, export prowess and capital investment. These numbers suggest we are in some serious trouble if we hope to remain competitive in the global marketplace, never mind improve the standard of living of the 4.4 million people who live here"
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/post+Olympic…
May 1st, 2010 at 10:15 am
@granite countertop: This is the second time that we have done it and it seems to work. However we are dream tenants. We actually believe in taking pride in where we live, even if we don't own it. It also helps that both of us are teachers (stable income).
We are actually going to go and look at the 3rd place today. When my husband was talking to the person, it was obvious that he was very worried about renting out his house. (It has never been rented before. It sounds like they are moving for family reasons).
This will be the 3rd time that we have had to move in 5 years. The first time – they were selling. The second – the place was too small, poor judgement on our part. We took our present place on the understanding that we would be here for at least 2 years but the owners are moving in earlier.
The only crappy thing that we can say about renting is the friggin instability that happens when the rental market is made up of amateur landlords who are looking to make a quick buck.
Port Moody ha just figured out that they might have a housing problem and are in the process of creating an official community plan. In 2006 – 22% of owners spent more than 30% of their pre-tax income on housing, with 25% of that number spending above 50%. The number of renters in this situation is even higher. (The Now – April 30). Port Moody is an interesting place to watch in terms of real estate and prices. It has been consistently more expensive than Coquitlam and PoCo. The cheapest house is a 1 bedroom boat in cottage ($275 000), the next property is a 2 bedroom for $515 000.
May 1st, 2010 at 10:21 am
@Best place on meth:
"Does Kelowna also have stupid cheerleaders that claim everyone wants to live there, rich Asians are buying up everything, they’re running out of land, it’s different there, etc, etc, etc…."
Yes, except the story was "everyone" meaning everyone in the rest of Canada wants to live in Kelowna, oh and all the money isn't coming from Asians, (there aren't enough to justify that argument, unless you were blind and didn't notice 99.9% of the population is white) the story was that EUROPEANS with suitcases of money were moving to the Okanagan and buying up the RE.
Haha. I think not!
May 1st, 2010 at 10:31 am
The reality is that healthcare is expensive and no one wants to pay for it. Even worse is that you cannot change anything about our healthcare system if you want to survive politically. It's for this reason that BC will never be happy with it's government. The Liberals did try to fend off a lot of political problems by decentralizing health care decisions to the health regions, quazi privatizing BC ferries and giving school boards more power. Even that didn't work. I don't think BC is really a governable jurisdiction. There's no way I would ever even consider getting into government here and I like politics.
May 1st, 2010 at 10:39 am
@pricedoutfornow: The story was Albertans want to move there. It's been the same story everywhere in the interior. I'm from the Kootenays and the story was the same there. You would hear examples of an Albertan buying a property out there on the lake, soon everybody thought that all that oil money was going to continue to pour in. What they failed to realize was it wasn't oil money, it was just debt. Same shit, different pile.
May 1st, 2010 at 10:46 am
@jesse:
Sure they did. In the 2001 provincial election they had the choice of voting for a party that would have withdrawn the Olympic bid – the Green Party. Anyone voting for the NDP (which put in the Olympic bid) or the Liberals (who virtually pretended that the Olympics were their idea) was endorsing the event.
No excuses. They got what they voted for.
May 1st, 2010 at 10:54 am
I thought this site was supposed to be about Real Estate.
All this political crap is almost as bad Johnny Horton's perverted smut on RET.
May 1st, 2010 at 10:54 am
The NDP is no alternative…and they never were.
Each time they get in power they smoke something different and go of on some crazy tangent. Gregor looks like Carol James successor, but he's the kind of populist socialist that is into stupid issues like allowing chickens in the back yard, and that $1 Million COV condos should go to paid civil servants.
Yeah, previous posters are correct, the NDP had some rule about white men need not apply for MLA jobs … wasn't it a quota system ?
May 1st, 2010 at 11:01 am
@Chilled:
That is simply not true.
In 1972 the NDP defeated WAC Bennett's Socreds during good times, and was defeated in 1975 during the oil crisis recession.
Bill Bennett was re-elected in 1983 during a severe recession with a bigger majority than he had received in 1979.
In 1991 the NDP defeated the Socreds again during good times (the province missed the 1990 recession), and was finally defeated in 2001 during the dot-com recession (or the Glen Clark recession as some put it).
Not only in BC but in other provinces the NDP generally gets more votes during good times and fewer during recessions. Note that the very first CCF (now NDP) government was elected in Saskatchewan in 1945, not during the 1930's when they were formed.
May 1st, 2010 at 11:10 am
@Chilled:
BC politics – like much of Canadian and US politics – is far more about cultural values than about class.
Why is the NDP more popular in Point Grey than in Langley or Richmond? Why is it much more popular in the West Kootenays than elsewhere in the Southern Interior? Why is the NDP so much less popular in the Fraser Valley than in the GVRD, when the latter has a higher median income?
Don't let the east-west split in the CoV colour your perceptions of the whole province.
May 1st, 2010 at 11:22 am
@VRENGD:
Wow – this is why I'll never buy a condo. I just don't trust the shills who build them anymore.
May 1st, 2010 at 11:39 am
I would never vote NDP because they represent everything that I dislike about Canada. Parasitic Unions that promote free riding and mediocre aspirations. The teacher's union is a perfect example. Kids are becoming stupider every year and they still want high paying salaries, sick days, benefits, high paying pensions, etc. If you want the perks then at least do a descent job. If you suck at your job, you get fired, that is life, now get off your ass and make your best effort in life…..
What is really sad is that there aren't any other alternatives out there.
May 1st, 2010 at 11:40 am
Gawd, how depressing to have a peaceful saturday morning ruined with all this political crap.
Especially when we could be enjoying the inventory surge.
May 1st, 2010 at 11:41 am
Looks like we got a bunch of leftie commie NDP bastards on VCI.
May 1st, 2010 at 11:52 am
When the NDP get into office, they generally settle old scores and pay back their supporters before they get their asses kicked out.
The NDP have basically floundered and even turned off many of its old supporters.
Regardless, all political parties work under the bunker mentality of party discipline. The leader is a dictator and the MLA's know how to play the game…shut up, vote this way and you'll get a nice pension.
May 1st, 2010 at 11:54 am
Prices are falling in all property types in Calgary. I bet prices fell here last month also.
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/
May 1st, 2010 at 11:58 am
I've mentioned this before…
You have to wonder about those poor bastards that bought condos, but there fellow strata members are trying to sell, probably due to desperation and being underwater. Then you'll see strata fees overdue, and the current owners may have to make up the difference, which may be the tipping point to push more strata members over the edge.
Human nature being what it is, you can foresee a lot of lying and cheating by desperate sellers.
This will get UGLY !
May 1st, 2010 at 12:13 pm
patriotz:
Re the Olympics.
IMHO, this was a done deal regardless of Public opinion. There were a few key players that bent the Gov'ts ear to submit a bid…and rememeber that we were up against Toronto for a Canadian bid.
Olympic bids are simple leverage politics…The IOC looks at the summer games as THE Olympics…and makes chess moves so that the summer games are properly located, and the winter games are used as a means to facilite this.
We won the 2010 Games by one IOC vote…big deal.
Arthur Griffiths, who practicaly bankrupted his family with his GM place build and trying an NBA franchise, was a key player, given he liked sports.
The only Olympics that the public had a say was in the 1970's in Colorado, whereby the citizens said NO, and the IOC was seriously looking at Vancouver back then.
The only blessing is that we won't see the Olympics here again for generations, , if ever.
May 1st, 2010 at 12:16 pm
@jesse:
Thanks for the heads-up, jesse.
May 1st, 2010 at 12:17 pm
@#124…
If you seriously think that teachers in BC don't work hard then you need to get your head out of your @$$!
For the record I am not a teacher, but I can appreciate the level of patience that it takes to monitor 30 kids at a time. Most parents struggle wjile watching their own kids for heavens sake. And the job has significantly changed over the years…where teachers used to be responsible for teaching kids the three rrr's, now they are also expected to teach them moral and values and ethics because parents are too lazy to do it themselves.
And on the subject of unions and the wages that their workers earn…it should be pointed out that the only decent paying jobs with benefits left in the province are union jobs…and if the current gov has anything to do about it they will disapear because GC really believes that unless you are one of his inner circle of friends that you should be working three minimum wage jobs to scrape out an existance in this province.
May 1st, 2010 at 12:20 pm
I’m noticing a similar writing/thinking style between Rob and Garth. Both very insistent in their world view, like things can’t be any other way. It’s kinda weird… I wonder if…
Vomiting Dog:
You are losing it girl. Get some lingerie, a couple of good bottles of wine, and have yourself a couple of stiff ones.
When you remotely associate Rob with Turner, it is a sure sign of a mental health issue, which you need to address.
Whatever we might think of politicians aside, Turner is a published writer, with strong conviction, and perhaps the commercial benefits need to appraise as well, but he has held some serious high level positions. He is also educated, and people pay for his opinions.
Rob publishes his opinions for free, because that is what his pump and hype is worth.
Turner is also academically accomplished.
Rob, well look at the crap he writes.
May 1st, 2010 at 12:21 pm
joeblow Says:
May 1st, 2010 at 10:54 am
I thought this site was supposed to be about Real Estate.
All this political crap is almost as bad Johnny Horton’s perverted smut on RET.
++++++++++
Yeah, and Gawd knows there is no connection between real estate and politics.
May 1st, 2010 at 12:25 pm
Found this Q&A with economist Niall Feguson"
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/with+Niall+F…
If you like the article I recommend his book/TV series "The Ascent of Money" – the chapter on the Bond Market is particularly relevant.
May 1st, 2010 at 12:47 pm
@NO-LYMPICS: Yup already happening! Today owner complaining about no hot water," I paid 1.1M for this townhouse" me "what would you have paid in Moose jaw for it?" Owner "what has that got to do with anything" Me "well what you would have paid for it in MOOSE JAW is the quality you get, what you pay for it HERE is the price of location and has absolutely nothing to do with quality! "
Slams door!
No hot water this weekend! 
New system has "parts that are now out of production" because developers tend to buy stock at discounts because it is DISCONTINUED when they install it! Heh Heh
May 1st, 2010 at 12:55 pm
The Campbell Gov't and Local Gov'ts (except the COV) capitulated to the BCTF, The Nurses union and CUPE, in order to buy labour peace for the Olympics.
We all knew what happened to the COV , big turnover.
Those contracts will be expiring soon.
No beef here re the Health care employees, it is a very tough job.
BCTF traditionally hold our children hostages, and they are generally pre-emptive with the same old tired rhetoric that education will suffer.
We had an illegal 2 week strike a few years, no consequences.
School Trustees are puppetts of the BCTF, and moreso in the COV.
The BCTF simply propogandizes public education as motherhood issue and corners the Trustees, many of whom are groomed for City Council and higher positions.
The School Districts are bloated, and its time to "out" them.
Anecdotes:
—A party I know had addiction problems, and went to the private rehab facility. Their School District kicked in about $7000 to help cover their costs.
—Retired School District employees often get hired to write studies and reports.
Does this have an impact on RE ?
Well, when you look at your property taxes,a significant portion of them go towards the School District.
May 1st, 2010 at 1:09 pm
#136 Strataman:
Too funny !
( BTW…when can you do that expose'…I can't wait ! )
I assume there is a point in any RE market whereby the corner cutting starts and the developers are desperate to save pennies.
If they buy discontinued parts, do the math and the multiplier effect and see hundreds of strata owners who will be in the same boat.
No Hot Water? enjoy the Granite Counter tops yeesh !
May 1st, 2010 at 1:27 pm
http://tinyurl.com/39klb4s
42% vacancy rate in high end condo rentals
118 outa 276
May 1st, 2010 at 1:33 pm
“In Vancouver, based on RBC’s data, nearly 80 per cent of all median pre-tax household income was needed just to pay the cost of a typical mortgage on a standard two-storey home. That figure almost certainly increased again in the first quarter of 2010, as house prices continued to skyrocket. If that’s not a bubble, I don’t know what is. In fact, it makes one wonder how homeowners have enough money left to buy food and keep the lights on.” http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=6014
If it takes 80% of pre-tax income to service ones mortgage, your food banks must be strained to their limits, many bin divers in Vancouver ? Theres a ton of them in Calgary.
May 1st, 2010 at 1:36 pm
Cut the politics please!
-1 for all comments touching politics
On the topic of housing, Victoria SFH now up 58% in listings (626 to 986 on MLS), not counting those on PCS/Matrix but not MLS.
btw – are more houses not listed on MLS these days compared to the previous listings peaks? Here in Victoria, womp had statistics showing an extra 40% of listings not showing up in MLS. (hell, that would mean that we've already had the 23K party and are heading for 24
May 1st, 2010 at 1:37 pm
@astarte: There seems to be two rental markets in the city, the professionally managed stock that's well advertised but pricey, then the ameteur landlords who announce on Craigslist and have a wider variety at a lower price. Their competence levels are hit and miss…
Would you consider owning if the market wasn't, you know, insane? My friends who I'm living with would rather be owning, but I get the impression they haven't fully grasped the insanity of the local market.
Happy Beltane everyone
May 1st, 2010 at 2:27 pm
#11 VRNGD:
Even worse is the owners will probably be unable to sell their units since by law the situation with water intrusion must be revealed in the Estoppel certificate. I once owned a unit in a townhouse complex where there was a lien placed against the Condo Corporation over a case of poor repair on a minority of units and until the lawsuit was cleared up I basically wuz stuck and unable to sell…luckily we *eventually* won our case and I unloaded the townhouse and jetted into a single family house.
Never again would I buy into a condo situation…..lesson learned.
May 1st, 2010 at 2:29 pm
Oops, I meant #111 VRENGD…..
May 1st, 2010 at 2:32 pm
@Strataman:
Heh, that reminds me, I had a closer look at the 3plex near me that was just renovated (finished about two months ago). Now the units are for sale for 800k, 1.3m and 1.4m
The ground drainage is done in such a way that the garage floods every time it rains. Someone tried to remedy this situation by chipping a trough in the driveway with a hammer.
The concrete around the patios is just raw, completely unfinished.
The paint on the window frames is peeling (seriously! It's not even a half year old.)
The sewage access pipes jut into one of the patio gardens.
Two of the small patio areas are finished in gravel.
The 'driveway' is just a couple of strips of garden brick between patches of grass.
The fences in the back yard look like they're set in concrete but the concrete was only poured into a small depression about 1" deep (an animal or something had been digging under one).
The railing on one of the back patios comes straight into a window (hard to describe but exceedingly ugly and obviously poorly planned, trust me)
These are the things a layman can spot in a few minutes. I am guessing they're counting on any prospective homeowners jumping in so fast they don't bother with an inspection.
This is a pretty normal sized house (3000 sq ft) that's selling for 3.5 million dollars! (adding the three suites together)
May 1st, 2010 at 2:44 pm
There may be a temptation to buy now….but I would hold off. It's a dog's breakfast out there.
Family members bought a circa 1980's condo unit about 4 years ago. ( BTW, I consider this one well maintained and well managed ).
They had to do a $5 Million exterior wall restoration .
They have a fountain feature in the central courtyard that is shut off 1/2 the year(ie freezing concerns). However, a leak has developed into the parking underground that has forcd them to remove all landscaping and dirt…..and repairs to the fountain, which is really a frivolous feature.
Other friends recently had all their interior plumbing (water lines)replaced, a common repair in strata.
Strata is an endless money pit, PERIOD, regardless of quality.
May 1st, 2010 at 3:15 pm
@squidly77: Nobody really pays 80% of their income, those are theoretical statements.
"If a family of a median income bought a median SFH with 5% down, their payments would be 80% blah, blah, blah…."
But most people actually buying a SFH today have a 50% down payment from their parents and/or from selling their condo.
May 1st, 2010 at 4:18 pm
The puck drops in 45 minutes.
Time to lace em up and put the moosehead on ice.
Just heard that Henrik, Daniel, Demitra, Ehrhoff, and Bernier all have their places on the market to cash in before the bust.
May 1st, 2010 at 4:48 pm
Canucks are like local RE market ie OVER – RATED….
Canucks fans are like Jim Jones cult members…blind and stoopid
When Luongo farts or scratches his ass you here LOOOOOO.
Luongo will do another choke job.
Salo is due for another injury, Sedin act is wearing thin.
Bieksa will take predictable stupid penalty at the worst time.
Get a life Canucks fans
Go LIONS Go !!!
May 1st, 2010 at 4:58 pm
@T: Ha ha ha lol! Teachers work hard! hahahahahah. You are too funny. Have to teach the kids morality and values and ethics because parents are too lazy! hahahaha When the hell did the edjumacaters decide that this was their responsibility! Gimme a break. Hell, why not just let the Government become the parents for all of us! OK, gimme my allowance so I can buy a house please!
BCTF is a usurper of parental roles. They have been overstepping their bounds on what their responsibility is too the students and parents of this province for years and need to be reigned in.
Finally, yes teachers are overpaid for what they do. And I say this as someone who has 3 teachers in my family. They are overpaid, under-worked and need a pay cut. Forget the HST, just cut all civil servants pay.
May 1st, 2010 at 5:25 pm
"You are too funny" -Spitfire
Yes! That would be YOU!
May 1st, 2010 at 5:34 pm
DON'T BE A PART OF PROBLEM!!!!!
Be a part of the solution and just don't respond or post anything to do with politics. Whether I agree with you or not you're an idiot for wasting my time. I don't come here to read about the NDP, Liberals or any of that other crap, just to keep my finger on the pulse of Vancouver's housing market.
Please vote up this post if you agree to send a message to those cluttering the board.
May 1st, 2010 at 5:56 pm
Jenny TT,
Just came back from an all night bender–thanks for the advice–it was great. To clarify, I was joking but only half joking. I was referring to trying to budge Chipman off his stance on all kinds of positions: global warming, the CREA, the CREA as a monopoly. It's exhausting and futile… kinda like getting Garth to change his mind. Right now I think he's back at it with vibe or elvince or someone back on that CBC interview between Klump and Park. Zzzzzzz. Oh well, it passes the time until we wait for price drops.
May 1st, 2010 at 7:56 pm
joycer Says:
May 1st, 2010 at 5:34 pm
DON’T BE A PART OF PROBLEM!!!!!
Be a part of the solution and just don’t respond or post anything to do with politics. Whether I agree with you or not you’re an idiot for wasting my time. I don’t come here to read about the NDP, Liberals or any of that other crap, just to keep my finger on the pulse of Vancouver’s housing market.
Please vote up this post if you agree to send a message to those cluttering the board.
+++++++++++++++++++
You can get a perscription for that myopia, ya know. You're an imbecile if you don't see the connection betweeen politics and the real estate fiasco. But hey, you are likely a Vancouverite, living in your little isolated world……….
May 1st, 2010 at 8:16 pm
"…trying to budge Chipman off his stance on all kinds of positions…"
Give it up, VD. He's the biggest Troll out there. He's not worth it.
May 1st, 2010 at 8:21 pm
Quattro condo sale today was a total flop, only 26 sales ! Bubble popping as we speak.
PS Canucks rock !!
May 1st, 2010 at 8:26 pm
@joycer:
Politics has an effect on real estate so it's fair game, unlike the lengthy tipping discussion that went on a few weeks ago.
And No-lympics, how do you like Luongo now? Geez, you're so fucking angry all the time.
May 1st, 2010 at 8:34 pm
@Boombust:
Anyone who calls his site "The best real estate anywhere" and then talks about nothing other than global warming, republicans, and competition bureaus is a fucking idiot.
Chimpman should be boycotted by all.
May 1st, 2010 at 8:35 pm
@Chilled:
You missed my point. I never said there was no connection between real estate and politics. Clearly the CMHC is the biggest example that says there is.
May 1st, 2010 at 8:53 pm
“Vomiting Dog:
You are losing it girl. Get some lingerie, a couple of good bottles of wine, and have yourself a couple of stiff ones.
When you remotely associate Rob with Turner, it is a sure sign of a mental health issue, which you need to address.”
Jenny I think I’m in love with you-at least your attitude, you got mojo baby!
Love the Chimpman thrashing. A bit acrid to be sure, but the thick buttressing of truth made it so delicious.
I occasionally take a peak over there (so ashamed to say) and although I made it a hobby of “keeping an eye on the pimps” and can handle large dosages of low lives such as Bill Good, Muir, Rennie, heck I can listen to Michael Levy and not vomit, but Chipman is something else.
Back to I think I love you.
Right now I’m doing the wild thing with a realtor lady, yes I know a little ironic, but she is a wild little thing, she is also teaching me Cantonese, but she as dumb as a bag of hammers.
So if you are free and looking, I will be available fairly soon.
May 1st, 2010 at 9:31 pm
Bear canuck playoff is going to make real estate market burn hot like asia money. Millions of people are going to watch canuck playoff game and then want to buy condo in Vancouver. Just like olympic bear. Just like olympic.
May 1st, 2010 at 9:34 pm
"And the job has significantly changed over the years…where teachers used to be responsible for teaching kids the three rrr’s, now they are also expected to teach them moral and values and ethics because parents are too lazy to do it themselves."
That's why the BCTF campaigns against tests of the three Rs and when you go to the BCTf's website there is no section on the three R's but one of the 6 chapters is called Social Justice:
"The social justice initiatives of the Federation focus on poverty, child and youth issues, race relations, gender equity, homophobia and heterosexism, bullying, environmental issues, globalization, and violence prevention. In addition, the Federation has an advisory committee on Aboriginal education."
Nice well rounded education, that.
May 1st, 2010 at 9:36 pm
Pope, PLEASE, start a new thread. Might keep the politics out!
May 1st, 2010 at 9:47 pm
Hilarious surrealistic post at greater fool:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
Tells a lot about the "investor" mentality!!! This guy does not even realize his luck. How can somebody be so greedy???
May 1st, 2010 at 10:02 pm
"Chimpman should be boycotted by all."
Hey Boom, would you change your mind if Rob agrees to have Aaron post more often?
May 2nd, 2010 at 3:54 am
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:35 am
Quickie nod to the 'Pope' (kind of a provocative handle these days, eh?) re: YVR Coaster… Bravo!
May 2nd, 2010 at 8:33 am
I added a comment to the News1130 article on the Quattro development which I'm sure won't be posted on the News1130 site; but I basically told them their journalistic intergity was shot.
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/50539-…
May 2nd, 2010 at 9:13 am
@Crash:
So they "sold" 45 of 165 units on Saturday but sold out the other two buildings in hours. Of these 45 I bet a large number rescind their offers after finding out about the shittastic sales.
May 2nd, 2010 at 9:16 am
P.S – 47 listings and 3 price reductions yesterday.
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:01 am
Week's recap:
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
Condo prices falling and an expected tax filing week break in the Listings Express.
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:02 am
Paulb, thanks for the live update! All I can say is: WOW!
No stopping the listings. Prices are going to go down starting from July.
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:11 am
"Chimpman should be boycotted by all"
No need to waste the effort to "boycott" something that cannot generate enough interest to keep it alive.
In case you haven't noticed, both, the Chipman blog and the Johnny Horton blog are dying from a lack of credibility.
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:16 am
@Keeping an Eye on The Pimps:
I just had a look at Chimpmans worthless blog and saw that not only has the format changed and now looks like shit, but Chimpman has completely gone off the deep end and is now recommending that prospective tenants (YES TENANTS) offer over asking on the rent for "peace of mind" to get a long term lease.
That guy should check himself into a mental hospital, I cannot believe anyone would do business with him.
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:20 am
Haha, I hadn't even seen these stickers going around lately:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/0…
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:46 am
@Lord Huggington:
That's awesome, where can I get some? There are some for sale signs in my neighbourhood that could use a few!
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:47 am
@Best place on meth:
“That guy should check himself into a mental hospital, I cannot believe anyone would do business with him.”
I don’t think a mental hospital could do much for him. What might be a start is some form of rehabilitation, perhaps some kind of spiritual cleansing, later to be followed by some courses in Ethics, and finally several years of Economics.
In economics we speak about the misallocation of resources, and moral hazards, during the bubble blowing process.
In practical everyday experiences we need to point out the distortions in terms of how people like him with so little to offer, can make so much money, while responsible people watch their savings dwindle to less and less purchasing power.
Thankfully, bubbles do pop, and some of the low lives go back to being nothing again.
May 2nd, 2010 at 10:56 am
Please keep discussions of RET, Rob Chipman, and politics off the blog. This used to be a holy place of peace and goodwill.
May 2nd, 2010 at 11:06 am
@jesse:
Please keep discussions of RET, Rob Chipman, and politics off the blog. This used to be a holy place of peace and goodwill.
Jesse, I agree with regards to politics, but exposing the pimps and pumpers, coincides well with peace and goodwill, so I don’t see the conflicts.
Bubbles hurt families; the pimps need to be confronted.
May 2nd, 2010 at 11:35 am
@Keeping an Eye on The Pimps: "the pimps need to be confronted"
I don't mind discussing what Rob says but I do mind discussing what others think he is.
Johnny Whoreton over at RET is no pimp. He, along with a couple of other posters, ruined what was a barely passable real estate forum. It makes me sick the RET moderators let them do it.
No matter. We now have the VCI forum! Let's put it to good use!
May 2nd, 2010 at 11:39 am
@Crash:
I was listening to the radio yesterday morning and they were pumping the Quatro development big-time, they were predicting HALF of the units to sell on the first day!!! They were interviewing the morons who had been lining up to throw their money away. So, all-in-all it was a failure, but of course they don't present it like that.
I saw on CBC last night that they only sold 26 units, so I am not sure where the 47 comes from or who is right. But some of the "interviews" they had with the potential buyers were revealing. Comments like "If interest rates stay where they are I think that I'll be OK", or "I'm worried about interest rates, but it's just so MIND-BOGGLING". With idiots like these, who needs a greater fool?
May 2nd, 2010 at 11:57 am
The "johnny Horton bpog"??? ha ha ha
That's a howler.
With nobody left to stoop to his level, he might succeed in turning that place into a porno site.
May 2nd, 2010 at 12:00 pm
Meant to say "Johnny Horton blog"
but was laughing too hard to type straight.
May 2nd, 2010 at 12:35 pm
@jesse:
Jesse, perhaps it’s about semantics.
But the issues are real and have real impact on people.
We have a detrimental stealth wealth transfer taking place. I don’t think the “pimps” are so ignorant that they don’t realize this.
The consequences are real for families.
But as you say let’s use this forum for good use.
I read every post from you, with much respect, so here is the challenge…..
How do we move on from making bandwidth noise to becoming prime movers of action for good will?
What would you change my handle to make it less offensive?
May 2nd, 2010 at 2:37 pm
@Keeping an Eye on The Pimps: What do you mean by "stealth wealth transfer?"
I think putting up factual and logically consistent posts, with the resulting message clear and repeated, is a start. It's worth remembering that brilliant posts made months or years ago are lost in the clutter and are worth being promoted to the front page. Their underlying theses cannot fade with time and are even more relevant now than before.
May 2nd, 2010 at 3:21 pm
@Starving Artist:
I agree, and while they’re at it, eliminate the capital gains exemption for principle residences.
Why the hell should RE flipping be tax exempt??? Lunacy
——-
Because if you tax the gains, you have to allow the expenses, including mortgage interest, to be tax deductable and it's clear that deducting interest and expenses would drive house prices even higher. And, over the long run, owning a house cost more in expenses than it returns in gains, so if you taxed the gains, home owners would actually be further ahead as $’s spent on expenses would be tax free.
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:23 pm
The Feds, via the CHMC, has encouraged flipping aka irrational exhuberance.
Capital gains?….remember when we had a $100,000 lifetime capital gains exemption, but Chretien took it away ?
The feds have helped their elite buddies, they never cared about the average homeowner, if they did they would have foreseen the bubble and the bust. It is now all coming to pass.
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:29 pm
It would be kinda tough to make cap gains taxable on RE without allowing cap lossesto be claimed. And what would be the point of giving speculators such tax breaks when RE is all set to plunge, and languish for years.
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:55 pm
Only a dickhead would vote me down.
May 2nd, 2010 at 5:35 pm
So far, 9 count em 9 dickheads.
May 2nd, 2010 at 6:07 pm
Changing any capital gains exemption on personal residence won't change the long-term price trend. Investors are taxed on capital gains and will compete with owner-occupiers over the same stock, so must eventually set the marginal price.
May 2nd, 2010 at 7:07 pm
I Really Hate Bubbles!
May 2nd, 2010 at 7:33 pm
@Ready
I remember a different Bubbles. (http://www.toptenz.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/bubbles.jpg)
@ No-lympics
Turning to the dark side of the force? RealPaul with a different handle? You're stinking up the place with your vitriol. Take a hint and drop the H8 brother, get the tinfoil hat loosened or join the belligeratti over at RET.
I just calls 'em as I sees 'em.
May 2nd, 2010 at 7:57 pm
Latest Study Uncovers Risks to Canadian Recovery
ECRI
April 29, 2010
"Since emerging from recession in July 2009, Canada has been experiencing the strongest recovery among the G7 economies. However, ECRI’s latest analysis reveals that changing global cyclical dynamics could soon undermine the Canadian economy, with important implications for the Canadian recovery in the coming months."
Who is ECRI and why should I care?
"ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm." – The Economist
May 2nd, 2010 at 9:22 pm
A Calgary blogger wormed into a city of Calgey site can you guys do what a calgarian has done..find the sites
May 2nd, 2010 at 9:36 pm
That should be, wormed his way into the city of Calgarys website.
May 2nd, 2010 at 9:36 pm
http://www.theprovince.com/Place+roof+collapse+ag…
Incredibly symbolic of what is happening in the housing market.
May 2nd, 2010 at 9:38 pm
Funny how EVERY friend/colleague I met in the last two weeks talked to me about Vancouver Real Estate:
1) If they rent, they want to forecast if it will fall by 20% or 50%
2) If they own and are flexible, they want to sell
3) If they own and are not flexible (i.e. families with kids and jobs), they try to convince themselves that all is for the best in la la land (market currently going through the roof, the rich Asian theories backed by pseudo academic studies, the crystal meth factories theories, the rich Asian mafia gangsters theories, etc)
4) If they are buying, they want to bury their head in the sand.
It has become a VERY touchy subject… It feels like we are at a cross road…
May 2nd, 2010 at 9:38 pm
@squidly77:
Squidly, we don't need blogs like that here in Vancouver.
Our local Real Estate Industry, and local media, are good will custodians.
They would never lie, our RE is not in a bubble, we are an international city, and we ran out of land.
May 3rd, 2010 at 1:46 am
@Chilled:
The original stadium cost about $140 million to build, which in today's dollars would be about $300 million. So the roof is going to cost well over the cost of the stadium.
Bill Bennett's original plan was to use the profits from selling off the Expo lands in bits and pieces long term to pay for the stadium. That was sunk by Vander Zalm virtually giving away the lands to Li Ka-Shing near the bottom of the RE market in 1987. And Vander Zalm today has the nerve to pose as an anti-tax campaigner.
May 3rd, 2010 at 2:25 am
@Pythagoras:
That depends completely on how much you paid for the house.
If you buy today, absolutely. If you bought in, say, 1985, or before 1980, absolutely not.
And I'm just talking about rental value, not any gains you could make by selling.