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Quit your job and start flipping

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Here’s a handy financial planning tip: Quit your job and start flipping condos.

You can not go wrong with this simple plan my friend, just look at the facts:

1. BC Jobs don’t pay well.  look at this chart, just look at it.  Our incomes have gone up, but not by as much as in Alberta or Ontario, both of whom get paid much better than us.   At least our houses cost more.

2. Your job may leave you.  Quit it before it quits you.  In January 2009 the Metro Vancouver unemployment rate was 4.9%.  Now it’s 7.8%.  See which way that’s going?  hint: it’s the opposite of house prices.  Make your own secure future in the real estate biz today!

3. The Government wants you to.  If the government didn’t want you to be speculating on real estate they wouldn’t hold interest rates at .25% and insure your mortgage with just 5% down (which the bank will give back to you in cash!) would they? It’s a pretty clear message, the only real road to riches is REAL ESTATE baby!  We can all be Donald Trump!

4. Real Estate Never Goes Down.  This is self explanatory.  Prices have risen tremendously in Vancouver which clearly means it’s a hot sector whose track record is proven.  In March 2010 the REBGV benchmark house price dropped by $455 to only $800,341.  I smell a buying opportunity!

Does this sound exciting to you?  Then YOU are the kind of financial intellect I’d like to work with!

I’m willing to offer you a very special deal for a limited time only.  Send me $15,000 and I will send to you, absolutely free, a handsome inkjet print of these words on a 8.5 x 11 inch piece of paper suitable for framing.  This will empower you to REMEMBER and BELIEVE the words so that they may bring you happiness day after day, even in the event of a completely unforeseeable market collapse.

Now go quit your job and start flipping condos.

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[…] Best place on Meth: $60,000 median household income. $1000 per month suite income. 35 year am. 5% down. Payments on 5 year fixed. – March 19, 3.29% qualifying rate, maximum mortgage $575,082 – April 19, 4.4% qualifying rate, maximum mortgage $357,269 = A 37% decrease in purchasing power. […]

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VancouverGuy

The real question is what happens to inventory after April 19th. Will we see a sharp drop-off in sales? Funny thing is when the stats come out for April people will probably be encouraged by the fantastic sales numbers without understanding the potential end of month collapse.

Now, finally without additional stimulus from the federal government and with rising rates, we get to see some actual market pricing of real estate in Vancouver.

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Inventory

************* 1/1/07 / 4/30/2007 / change Bowen Isld 33 / 51 / 54.55% _Bby East 97 / 162 / 67.01% _Bby North 440 / 604 / 37.27% Bby South 464 / 614 / 32.33% Coquitlam 500 / 681 / 36.20% Van.&Gulf 81 / 130 / 60.49% ___Ladner 68 / 115 / 69.12% MapleRidge 508 / 656 / 29.13% _New West 262 / 391 / 49.24% _North Van. 327 / 513 / 56.88% OutoTown 195 / 258 / 32.31% _Pitt Mead 85 / 138 / 62.35% _Port Coq. 215 / 352 / 63.72% PortMoody 208 / 321 / 54.33% _Richmond 1352 / 1711 / 26.55% _Squamish 301 / 303 / 0.66% Sunshine C. 570 / 754 / 32.28% _Tsawssen 127 / 170 / 33.86% __Van East 971 / 1282 / 32.03% _Van West 1597 / 2001 / 25.30% _West Van 299… Read more »

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Inventory

*UPDATE*UPDATE* 11:46pm

April 13,2010 = 15,604

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VanMD

This excellent article is very well digged in the last few hours : ) The Renter’s Manifesto "The logic is simple: renting is just flushing money down the toilet; buying a house gives you a piece of something to call your own. You earn home equity and end up with something tangible to pass down to your heirs–or to sell or refinance when you retire. There is a kernel of truth to all of this. But it’s mostly crap. I’ve been a renter all my adult life, and I have plenty of home equity. My home equity is called “cash,” and it’s the accumulated difference between what I pay in rent and what a comparable homeowner pays for their mortgage, maintenance, property taxes, and utilities. (Sure, I pay for all of those things indirectly, but that’s the point: they’re rolled… Read more »

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reapaul

BTW at 1 million for the average SFH in Vancouver, the price/income ratio is now twenty one point two seven (21.27)times average income. ie 1 mill divide 47 K.

And for those argue that condos are only 12 times, remember that the price/income ratio does not apply to condos. That is just another scam used by the RE industry to try and move the goalpoasts of public perception.

Next they'll have you believing that the p/i should be a vehicles sticker price divided by your welfare cheque is a good deal when you live in your car.

In the US Spain and Britian, Aussie the P/I is based on the price of SFH's not apartments. basement suites or trailers in Chilliwack.

Yes thats right, 21 times earnings really is a bubble.

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reapaul

Oh oh the Olympics are over and the Vanc Shitty Council has announced the closure of all the temporary shelter beds. Was the good hearted gesture just an Olympic scam to fool the international press? Some, like the Guardian got it right but some Vanshitterites yelled at the international reporters for pointing out what kind of scams the local cunts were running. Some of the posters right here, whined and insisted that the Guardian MUST be wrong for disagreeing with VANOCS web of shame. Well, now it seems that thet truth tellers were right and the homelessness that was balleyhooed by the local scumbags media as being 'fixed' is not fixed at all. Gosh I'm confused , did the local government lie? Did some people get taken in? Were the foriegn media just reporting the truth after all? It makes… Read more »

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me

ulstermam i hear you

i have a 5 and 3 year old, they love our rented house (their house)…in truth, its tired/old, but in a shockingly nice neighbourhood…i want to move to a better house (rental of course) but the wife won't have it, she said the next house we'd better buy

that bag of bones is going to see how bad things get and then she'll be back on side – its been a nuthouse trying to keep her buckled down, but now that the crash has begun (and her friends are rushing to sell and rent – before its too late), i might have the tide on my side

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ulsterman

I was chatting with my oh-so-innocent 9 year old tonight and he said he liked our (rented) house. Said he didn't want to move and could we buy it. I told him it was really expensive to buy houses right now. He asked how much it would cost. I said 850k. His response said it all. "Wow, we'd have to win the lottery to buy this house." Out of the mouths of babes…comes reality.

Forget the bubble-denying talking heads, my 9 year old calls BUBBLE!

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me

paulB/inventory could prices decline again this month?

are sales on track to come in above/below March?

muchos gracious

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crashcow

GVRD inventory of unsold homes is growing at the pace of one downtown highrise…daily.

Thank you for the numbers, paulb and inventory!

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me

inventory i think month-end expiries will start to play a bigger role in the months ahead, so while i think 17,000 is possible for this month, i think we'll lose a bigger chunk than in recent months at the end of the month and it will take until say May 10th to recover…but i suspect we'll crack 19,000 in May

look at agentwill's stats charts – how in the world will the spin the growing inventory when contrasted to 09 – last year they had the wind at their back, this year they will face hurricane force headwinds…i actually (sincerly) feel sorry for the spin docter at the rebgv, its gonna be a tough ride

how is the fraser valley trending? are things falling apart there?

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me

Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank's TD Securities unit, said investors are now factoring in a 50 per cent probability that central bank governor Mark Carney will raise interest rates on June 1. Carney has pledged to keep the central bank's benchmark rate unchanged through June, "conditional" on the outlook for inflation.

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Inventory

Apr 1, 2010 = 14,667

Apr 6, 2010 = 14,832

Apr 7, 2010 = 14,915

Apr 8, 2010 = 15,221

Apr 9, 2010 = 15,399

Apr 12, 2010 = 15,462

Apr 13, 2010 = 15,595

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painted turtle

All of these bubble deniers appearing in the media…

They make me think of a bunch of sailors in a canoe desperately pushing the hull of the Titanic to change its course…

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Dan in Calgary

"Vancouver’s real estate market is fucked for a generation."

The link posted by Bizznitch at 7:26 pm encapsulates a lot of the things that are bad about this market. "F*cked" is a good one-word summary. But for a generation? Maybe longer … but how long is a generation? I'd say it's f*cked for about 20 years.

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superboomtime

@Curiouser and Curiouser: Or you can continue to be wrong like you were in 2007 when you sold at what you thought was the peak. That worked out well for you didn't it? That's ok you're smarter than everyone else bud. You're a landless peasant paying someone else's mortgage.

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Kite towards moon

Animal Spirit,

We are not running anywhere,actually there is no surprise in the dallies.High listings doesn't matter as long the sales are smooth.Sellers come to sell their listings as usual but, if they won't satisfy with selling prices, they will quit sooner or later.

Those who sing songs of interest rates and affordability, They most likely don't understand real estate historicalVancouver average price.

*If First time buyers got dry at $36,000 in 1967 how come people are paying for one million dollars house today?

*If Interest rates were sustainable till it reached upto 21% last time in history what 5.50% rates will do to harm real estate.?

In 2007 interest rates were almost 7.5%.

People who are playing this affordability and interest rates, buying and selling games again and again will be disappointed again and again.

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jesse

I can haz mor rate hikez?

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Curiouser and Curiou

I am a long time reader/lurker and I have been eagerly waiting for the bubble to burst. We bought a place in 2004 and sold in 2007 for a number of reasons and we are waiting to buy when it makes sense for us to do so. I learned early on to keep my thoughts on real estate to myself since saying anything other that "housing prices will only go up" would cause people to look at me like I have sprouted three extra heads. Take today for example. At work, I have a coworker who listed his home on Wednesday last week. He received three offers on his home yesterday. One was for 15K over the asking price (very generous if you ask me since the house is a shack and my coworker has even stated that it is… Read more »

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CSG

@vreaa:

Seriously, don't do this.

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crashcow

…and that night, little timmy placed his tooth under the pillow and was soon fast asleep. The beautiful sun rose the next morning and the tooth fairy blessed timmy with a 40% plunge in the Vancouver property market.

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Animal Spirit

where have all of the trolls gone? signal to noise ratio used to be around 2:1, now it is 10:1. Have the bears came out of hibernation and the trolls gone running away yelling 'the sky is falling, the sky is falling, halleluyah, to be seen jumping off Lions Gate Bridge naked into the arms of Scullboy?'

p.s. Victoria SFH inventory up 43% from March 1 to today.

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Aaron Behst

OK that's it! I have had enough of this. I am reporting you guys to the government.

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Jim Bob

@Best place on meth:

The bubble is pretty obvious. The government is only looking out for themselves and the banks. Telling people there us no bubble, but at the same time changing mortgage laws to slow down the market. They know the old rules for mortgages helpers are extremly risky to CMHC and the banks, as rental vacancy rates continue to climb.

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