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April 26th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
@anonymousAA:
Funny ad. Why is saying its walking distance to Opening and Closing ceremonies. Quit living in the past dude.
April 26th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
Hey Pope! Love your Roller Coaster! I thought though a couple of “conversation comments” on those long flat stretches would be in order!
Like “hey this seat belt is “out of order” other guy… ” so what this thing never really goes down” or “that wheel is wobbly” other guy ” whatever the view is astounding”.
Just give us something to haw about as the car trucks along level!
April 26th, 2010 at 5:55 pm
Rob can sure get silly. It’s one tangent after another, predicting interest rates, monetary policy, wealth creation, monopolies, and his latest: the great bubble debate and all the hair splitting.
He reminds me of a puppy, who humps everything, but doesn’t quite understand why.
April 26th, 2010 at 5:43 pm
@paulb:…there could be even more listings coming on to test the market
Good excuse for the high listings. RE whores might go with the spin that people are not selling they are just testing it, there is actually a lack of supply therefore it would be a good time to buy now, oh my…
April 26th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
Sure seem to be a lot of rentals out there, though not too many price reductions (yet). One annoying thing in looking for a new place-so many FURNISHED places seem to have popped up since the Olympics. I’m not so sure there is much of a demand for furnished rentals are there?
A sign of desperation? This condo owner says it’s “urgent” that I rent his furnished place for a reduced $2150. Good luck buddy!
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....23278.html
April 26th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
@Boombust:
I have no idea, but I bet with some agents now offing to list homes on mls for $250 etc. there could be even more listings coming on to test the market and see if they can get a certain price.
April 26th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
@Dave: “it could also be a small number of owners with multiple units for sale”
Hm. That seems to line up nicely with my theory that a small number of people are buying multiple units. Thanks for the Monday laugh; you’ve brightened what was otherwise going to be a miserable week.
April 26th, 2010 at 4:55 pm
Paulb,
What percentage of sellers do you think NEED to sell, as opposed to others who may be listing “just to see what happens”?
April 26th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
Watch the Olympic Village..
Like realpaul said, they are putting lipstick on a pig.
COV will try to sell hi – end real estate into a declining/collapsing market.
You’ll have developers pissed off with Gov’t owned units with no skin in the game (other than their own political skin.)
You’ll have desperate local gov’t wanting to ditch these 5 ring lemons versus the developers and other sellers.
Only a psycho left – wing party like Gregor’s would direct the Village rentals to highly paid civil servants, I hope some homeless person files a complaint to the Human Rights commission.
Mayor Gregor should resurrect McBarge from Expo 86 and use it as a hostel for these civil servants.
April 26th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
4:45pm** 17k by Thursday
16,707
April 26th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
@M-:
The vast majority of the sales are pre-April 19th, so I guess the sales numbers could stay high for another few weeks.
New Listings 276
Price Changes 156
Sold Listings 96
April 26th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
Still seeing multi – family developments at ground zero…ready to go but going nowhere….flat earth.
Like a zit being popped, we’ll see the ” puss ” of listings expand, and more sheepies will get scared, list and compound the problem.
The banksters will be the only winners, given the CMHC has covered their asses.
April 26th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
@VRENGD: Here’s market specific data. 3.9 appears to be the lower mainland – my source there was an article, but this CMHC document shows different numbers in Vancouver proper.
The West End, English Bay, and Downtown was up from 0.2% to 0.9% between Oct 08 and Oct 09.
April 26th, 2010 at 4:31 pm
@VRENGD: The CMHC report from the fall showed all of Van up: a 3.9% vacancy rate on purpose built rentals (up 1.7 in the year). I’m not sure if there’s anything that’s Downtown specific.
April 26th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
@painted turtle: Approximately 1.5 homes. In Jan 09, friends listed their gorgeous Santa Barbara 1,250sq ft home on a beautifully manicured large lot for $1.3 and almost immediately dropped to $1.1. They got an offer in late Feb for $975 and turned it down. No offers until the SAME buyer came back a couple months later with an offer of $875 which they accepted. That was the only offer they ever got during the listing. Sad but true.
April 26th, 2010 at 4:03 pm
Today I walked by a brand new high rise on UBC campus. The showroom was deadly empty… Why? There was a sign outside saying “3 bedroom from $ 1 300 000.” It felt like “you are about to enter a parallel universe.”
$ 1 300 000 for a 3 bdrm high rise? How many houses can one buy in Santa Barbara for that money? Two? Oh, but I forgot, rain is a premium those days. And Arroyo Burro Beach is so passe, any away.
April 26th, 2010 at 3:42 pm
More than one post has referred to the “unprecedented rental vacancy situation”. Is there a source for this?
April 26th, 2010 at 3:35 pm
@Supersogs
“It’s quite the scene – those who held onto their units to gouge for the Olympics now face the same fate – was that couple of grand worth the tens of thousands price drop for holding on too long?”
So true – and those who thought, “well if I can’t sell, I’ll just keep renting it out” – they may no longer be able to do with this unprecedented rental vacancy situation.
And as you mentioned, many of these buildings with high inventory are 1-3 years new. That means many of them bought at the peak in 2006-2008 (pre-mini crash). If it was bought then, we’re looking at a lot of underwater properties soon if the market dips as expected.
April 26th, 2010 at 3:13 pm
Paulb: would you be able to have a look at some of the sales to see what their sale date is?
I’m curious if we’re cleanly past Apr 19 sale dates, or are there still some lingering contracts from prior to the deadline that are being slow to be reported to the Board? (or slow to be entered by the Board)
Thanks!
April 26th, 2010 at 3:06 pm
Looking at all those downtown units on the market, they are either too crappy or too expensive for the size for most first time buyers.
In what kind of a city, 400K doesn’t even buy a decent 1 bdr apartment?
April 26th, 2010 at 3:05 pm
My pleasure – my significant other represents the crowd that is (well, was) in panic mode and caught up in the whole interest rate selling point. It’s hard not to with the frenzy this city has experienced. After all, when many get your advice from RE agents (buying or selling) and banks, what do you expect?
She frantically wanted to buy earlier this year – so I’ve been taking her on rounds through the city letting her experience the changes not only on paper but in person as well.
Even she can attest that the overall attitude is changing – the panic is starting to overcome the sellers, agents attitudes are different and the serious buyers becoming fewer and fewer. And that’s just anecdotal – but the facts support it fully.
We often now go around “for fun” just to see what it’s like – and will be prepared when the time is right. I can admit I am very addicted to this
I was off by a couple of units for some buildings when I compared it to the MLS – but you can confirm the # of listings easily with the MLS site, RE agent’s search pages, etc.
Everyone can see the inventory level is crazy. What I’m excited about is forecasting the changes with the amount of rental vacancies – what they will do when they don’t rent out or can’t reduce rent accordingly + the amount of speculators wanting to dump just completed buildings.
It’s an investment that 1-2 years ago seemed like a “sure thing”. The Olympics vacancies and government intervention has thrown the whole DT scene into unseen territory. Even those who were considering “just renting out” if they can’t sell may no longer be in a position to do so given the competition.
The one thing that stands out to me the most is how many new buildings – Shangri-La, Smart, Woodwards, TV Towers, Espana, Spectrum Towers, anything within 1-3 years – have to sell. Speculators for those, on top of regular owners, trying to dump are in full force as everyone waited until post Olympics – just wait until The Mark, Beasley, etc. are completed. They surely will follow the same footsteps as TV Towers and Woodwards – lots of people wanting out.
It’s quite the scene – those who held onto their units to gouge for the Olympics now face the same fate – was that couple of grand worth the tens of thousands price drop for holding on too long?
April 26th, 2010 at 3:01 pm
Dave isn’t dat just semantics?
Example, coopers pointe 12 units for sale.
well the whole building only has 87 units or so
regardless if it’s 1 owner selling 12 units
OR 12 owners selling, that’s still over 14% of units are for sale.
April 26th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
You’re right Dave, more like 1 in 5.
April 26th, 2010 at 2:58 pm
@anonymous:
It could also be a small number of owners with multiple units for sale. With newly constructed places, that could easily be the case. That’s neither bullish or bearish, but if I am even partly correct, it’s not a situation where 1 in 10 owners are trying to get out of the market.
April 26th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
@paulb:
Thanks for the fix, that should sustain me until around 6pm until the final numbers come in.
Looking good for a 17k Friday
April 26th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
Awhile bank someone asked me about fraud in the housing industry. Today, I came across an article by Adrian Sainz of the Associated press. This article is about the USA, but since our housing industry is highly similar to the USA, I would expect the percentages to be close.
“As for the types of fraud, misrepresentation of information on mortgage applications accounted for 59 percent of reported incidents. Fraud related to appraisals was second, increasing to 33 percent last year from 22 percent in 2008.
Other types of fraud included verifications of deposits or employment, escrow or closing costs, and credit reports.
Despite increased reporting efforts, mortgage fraud “is significantly understated, even during times of massive origination volumes,” said Jennifer Butts, manager of data processing for the institute.”
I don’t know if these percentages are any different from medicine, law, accounting or any other business.
April 26th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
New Listings 200
Price Changes 92
Sold Listings 76
April 26th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
Supersogs… that’s crazy inventory.
Means some of these towers are well over 10% of the units r up for sale.
Wut does dat tell you when 1 in 10 owners is selling.
April 26th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
@Supersogs, that’s a tremendous amount of information. Thanks for compiling and sharing it. That must have taken you hours to gather, and it’s an invaluable snapshot of the meatgrinder we’re all about to witness.
April 26th, 2010 at 1:27 pm
@painted turtle: the old man turned down his hearing aid, I bet.
April 26th, 2010 at 1:15 pm
This person has quite the winning sales strategy…
Just raise the price!! haha
http://imgur.com/hbUOI.jpg
April 26th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
Pope:
fantastic ride!!
sphincter tightening adventure indeed…..
i notice the illiterate bulls are out in full force
must of hit a sore spot …..
good job!
April 26th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
@elvince, re. the inverted yield-curve – check out Greek bonds as an example of this. 2 year bond yield is several percentage points above 10 year bond yield…..
Gotta see how that plays out. 6 weeks ago they said they needed $10 billion in bailout cash, 6 weeks later it’s up to $60 billion and rising. Ouch!
April 26th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
@Supersogs:
Well done, sir.
Excellent information – thank you very much for your efforts.
April 26th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
About fighting the trolls… a short story:
There was once an old man known for being able to defeat any challenger. His reputation extended throughout the land and many gathered to study under him.
One day a young warrior arrived at the old man’s village. He was determined to be the first to defeat the great master, since he had both strength and the ability to notice and exploit an opponent’s weakness.
The old master gladly accepted the young warrior’s challenge. As the two faced one another, the young warrior began to hurl insults at the old master. The verbal insults went on for hours, yet the old master merely stood there motionless and calm. Finally, the young warrior exhausted himself. Defeated, he left.
The great master’s students gathered around the old man. “How could you endure such an indignity?” they wondered. “And how were you able to drive him away?”
“If someone comes to give you a gift and you do not receive it,” the master replied, “to whom does the gift belong?”
April 26th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
@Anonymous: You just gave the troll exactly what they wanted.
Agree, you are right, my bad. I have to extend my fuse when it comes to ones insolence, stupidity and nonsensesness.
April 26th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
Popcorn passed to you!
Wow that is a recipe for disaster – had no idea the amount of listings for sale, it was nothing like that when we were looking at the beginning of the year.
Now there’s more open houses than you can shake a stick at lol. It would take us a month to go through and visit all that we’d consider.
Downtown market:
Increasing inventory + harder lending + tomorrows buyers already gone + rental vacancies becoming more units for sale + flippers dumping buildings that will complete this year = Downtown RE fireworks and we’re not talking celebration of light!
April 26th, 2010 at 12:25 pm
This last weekend I made another in depth round around the city for some on the ground analysis – last time Burnaby, this time Downtown. You know, Vancouver downtown – rental city, immune to price increases, always go up, market of its own, etc. etc – the same one Rennie speaks about and the speculators feeding grounds. The amount of new listings are incredible – the same buildings a few months ago had MAYBE 25% of the listings available. Now the attitude is different – the arrogance is fading, the desperation techniques are coming full force. Here are some notables at buildings I was considering – noone can tell me any of these will go for anywhere near asking price with the amount of competition:
Building name – # of listings
Espana Towers – 40
Brava Towers – 15
Carina – 9
Cascina – 7
Conference Plaza – 11
Coopers Lookout – 25
Coopers Pointe – 12
Elan – 17
Erickson – 13
Fairmont – 16
Melville – 12
Pinnacle – 13
Qube – 16
Ritz – 17
Shangri La – 27
Smart – 22
Space – 12
Spectrum towers – 62
Lions towers – 21
The Park – 19
Sapphire – 10
TV Towers – 33
Vita – 22
Woodwards towers – 31
Yaletown Park towers – 31
Flagship – 14
H-H 12
Hudson – 12
Koret – 10
Mariner – 19
Max towers – 23
If you look at current downtown rental vacancies, the number of empty units is mind boggling – record vacancies. Sure, those who bought early on when the price was right can probably weather the storm – let it sit, reduce rent, etc. However, the panic is starting to set in for those who bought 2006 and on at overinflated prices. They are the ones who can’t leave units empty for months or afford to give rent reductions. Expect to see more and more downtown listings – not to mention all the speculators who are going to want to offload units in buildings being completed this year.
I myself have a personal interest in DT. I work there, I’d like to live there given it’s within my reasonable means. Early this year I visited numerous open houses, spoke to realtors, gave them a “would the seller consider my offer if it were $xxx,xxx?” The attitude was arrogant to comical – many of them scoffed standing by their downtown rule. Fast forward 3 months – Many of the listings I see now are now listed at what I originally suggested to offer. Those sellers now would be ecstatic to receive anything close to that – but alas, greed and the influence of RE agents held too much sway.
So here we have it, the downtown market collapsing before us – no government help this time, harder to borrow money, tomorrow’s buyers already gone, increase of rates and taxes. Notice all the buildings I chose to list are newer (most within the last 5 years)? You guessed it – speculator dumping.
Pass the popcorn please.
April 26th, 2010 at 12:22 pm
@vanguy:
Well, this is just a guess but it could have something to do with the credit-worthiness of today’s median purchaser. With price/income ratios and price/rent ratios at all-time highs in Canada, the bank may be correctly forecasting higher default rates down the road, necessitating a larger profit cushion.
Or they could be front-running, knowing that long bond rates will be rising quickly.
April 26th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
Just sickening the way the local media whores have chosen NOT to report on the interest rate hikes that have happened again today. Nope, just stick your head up your arse and watch hockey says the Van Scum this morning, nothing shall derail the public say the RE pimps.
meanwhile
http://www.financialpost.com/n.....id=2952380
I listened to the debate on 98 this morning about whether grossly overpaid civic workers should get the first crack at subsidized housing at the OV. i think everyone including the host has missed the point. It is what they call in politics ‘putting lipstick on a pig’. The city is going to lose hundreds of millions on the project, they want to paint it in any other color than red. The shitty vision council has decided that they could sell the ‘social good’ angle more than the loss angle no matter how convoluted the logic or reason. It has nothing to do with emergency workers being close to the scene in case of an event. Who says anything is going to happen between Commercial drive and Burrard anyway? Does the shitty vision council now have dibs on where the ‘big one’ is going to hit? See what I mean? The whole thing is obfuscation and bullshit by any other name. Does anyone expect ANYTHING smart to come out of Vision under the leadership of little Greggy? Anyone can tell you that the chicken coop idea that he thinks is so cool is nothing but a major rat attractor.
April 26th, 2010 at 12:17 pm
VHB, likely today’s rate hike is the residual of the uncertainty before the BoC announcements last week.
April 26th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
@pricedoutfornow:
The link between LT and ST rates is quite complicated. Overall, LT rates are usually higher than ST rates but a couple bpp, but it’s not always the case. Usually, for bonds, ST rates behave in relation with the central bank overnight rates (not 100% true, but mostly true), while LT behaves according to a bunch of factors, including (but not limited to): current ST rates, predicted future ST rates, chance of defaults, current inflation, predicted future inflation, and general market sentiments.
It is possible for LT rates to be lower than ST. We call that curve invertion. It is temporary but it does happen.
April 26th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
@joycer: Nice idea! Can youtube views catch up with vimeo views?
if you have a vimeo or youtube account vote this video up and that will give it more exposure. I’m adding it to dig and stumbleupon if no one else has yet.
April 26th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
@VHB: Sometimes I feel banks play with the psychology of the buyers. Posted rate does not mean a thing. Just because they raised it be 0.15% some sheeple would be running with their tails between their legs to encash it asap. And then a week later, you can dump it by another 0.15%, bringing another set of sheeple to start buying as rates have started falling and market would be hot again. Either which way they win, so why not play the game as long as music continues.
April 26th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
@joeblow:
’80s was a two car collision, several people died.
’90s was a pretty bad bang-up, both cars needed body work and the driver of one car was checked into the hospital but released the same day.
’08 was a fender bender.
’10/’11 will be a 747 landing on the Lion’s Gate bridge during rush hour traffic.
April 26th, 2010 at 11:46 am
This will have to do until PaulB or Inventory start posting:
Viral Inventory 11:45pm
YouTube – 254
Vimeo – 733
April 26th, 2010 at 11:31 am
@Prca:
superduperbulltime is a troll, he/she only posts that kind of crap to get you to respond. They feed on your anger…
watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMEe7JqBgvg
Same goes for kite, tom vu, etc.
April 26th, 2010 at 11:30 am
LOL, I love that video!! I wouldn’t worry if I owned property in downtown vancouver though. It is a highly desirable place to live and will always attract people because downtown is where the action is.
April 26th, 2010 at 11:26 am
@Prca: You just gave the troll exactly what they wanted. Probably someone living in their parents basement after the divorce and working off their frustration by trying to piss people off online. Ignore the sadsack and they’ll fade away.
April 26th, 2010 at 11:25 am
Just got back from a walk around the hood and was quite surprised to see a “Reduced” sign and a “New Price” sticker being applied to another sign a couple of blocks later.
Don’t recall this happening that early in 2008
….who’da thunk it.