March saw listings grow like crazy and April started off with a bang adding close to 500 listings on April 1st alone. The growth in inventory is being mirrored by a growing number of people who appear to be seeking out more information on a Vancouver housing bubble – traffic on this blog has nearly doubled in the last couple of months.
The following comment was posted just before the weekend by GregK71 regarding the growing number of bullish comments here and on other blogs. I suspect it may sum up the way many readers feel about the current state of the Vancouver real estate market and its likely future:
The bulls on this and other RE blogs absolutely see the writing on the wall going into Q3 and Q4 2010, and beyond. They’re not blind. Arrogant, yes. Foolish, perhaps. Blind, no.
Oddly enough for a group of people apparently content and smug in their asset class, bulls never turn down the chance for a satisfying faeces toss on blogs like VCI. They’re coming here to convince themselves to keep on believing house prices only ever go up. And it’s worked like a charm.
Now, although it doesn’t always seem to come across in their posts, bulls understand market forces. They’ve made money in RE. Big money. Like bears, bulls too sense danger. In their gut, bulls comprehend irrational exuberance. Heck, they’re the ones who’re listing their presales and resales en masse, soon to push listings onward to 25,000 and beyond.
Bulls know this thing’s running on fumes. Bulls know the time is short. Bulls know there’s no such thing as running out of land when you can build up. They know these things.
They also know the Kool-aid is starting to taste a bit, um, funny.
Vancouver bulls, you’ve had an amazing run. You’ve defied the fundamentals for longer than many thought humanely or economically possible. It’s been unreal. It’s been absurd.
To those of you over-leveraged on severely overpriced Vancouver real estate: relish these final few weeks on the upside. You may have a month and a half.
But the tipping point is here. It’s visible. It’s shocking. And it can’t be put off with another rate cut, loosened restriction, extended am or exotic mortgage product. That deck is exhausted.
The process just getting started ends only with utter revulsion and complete contempt for the asset class. Needless to say: it’s going to be a long, long way down.
