BC quarterly sales drop more than 25%

Landcor data is out and in the first three months of 2010 both the number and value of BC real estate transactions dropped more than 25% from the previous quarter.

The results quantify the trend economists such as Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, have observed occurring since January.

Landcor’s numbers “certainly support the data we’ve been looking at that shows that obviously the pace of sales have slowed since the last quarter of 2009,” Muir said in an interview.

Last year’s “fourth-quarter peak is unlikely to reoccur in 2010.”

Landcor president Rudy Nielsen said B.C. home sales typically slow at the beginning of the year, but the first-quarter of 2010 slowed more than usual compared with the last decade of results. This is in part, he believes, because of the Olympics.

Nielsen added that consumer uncertainty over a host of issues, ranging from the global economic situation to unknown effects of the harmonized sales tax, have consumers sitting on their wallets.

Meanwhile in Canada, the CMHC is predicting that prices will rise ‘moderately’ in the next couple of years:
The agency, which insures almost $500-million of Canadian mortgages, said the average cost of a home by the end of 2011 should be $350,000. That would be a gain of 1.4 per cent over April’s record high of $344,968.
Forecasting higher prices next year puts the agency at odds with the Canadian Real Estate Association and Toronto-Dominion Bank, both of which are calling for prices to drop by 1.5 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively in 2011.
The Globe and Mail might want to check their numbers.  Canadian taxpayers are responsible for HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS in CMHC mortgages, not ‘$500-million’.

It has been difficult to accurately make forecasts on the housing market through the recession, however. Its forecast for 2009 housing starts was off by 19.4 per cent. The agency was only off by 1.5 per cent the previous year, and its goal is to always be within 10 per cent of the actual figures.

“For the first time in several years, our forecast accuracy was not within the 10-per-cent range because of volatile market conditions,” it said.

A ten percent margin of error eh?  Coincidentally Dan in Calgary points out that the phrase ‘CMHC is forecasting’ is a perfect anagram for ‘Comic things, farces

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doug r
doug r
10 years ago

@Care Bear:

I feel ya Care Bear. I've been thinking the market's gonna correct since about 2001. It started in California in 2006-some areas are already about 50% down from peak, a lot of high end areas are still in denial.

I see signs of lower prices in places like Kelowna and Tri-Cities and the massive increase in inventory means it's all coming to a head soon. There's a saying that crazy markets don't last, they just last longer than you can stay solvent…

No Longer Looking
No Longer Looking
10 years ago

@Vansanity: Its the boomers. They have equity (so aren't affected so much by recent changes) and are moving up and down in the market. I don't understand it, but their need to constantly buy and sell real estate is making the realwhores undeservedly rich.

After watching the odd behavior of my parents peer group, I'm convinced that boomers alone could keep sales going for a bit longer. You don't need FTBs. Of course, inventory will continue to build…until POP.

TOL
TOL
10 years ago

I haven't been checking my emails regularly and just came across one dated April the 8th from Woodwards District:

"In 2006 you registered for Woodward's and participated in a little piece of Vancouver real estate history. … etc

For more information and a private showing of one of our remaining 12 homes priced from $425,000, including 2 show suites outfitted by Koolhaus, please call so-and-so."

All units @W were sold out, how many buyers walked out? Curious

😀

crashcow
10 years ago

just got my "Mr. Housing Bubble" t-shirt in the mail. Man, I wish I had it last week during my visit to the Olympic Village.

bridgeman
bridgeman
10 years ago

After living through the housing bubble in America, I watched with bemusement the growing housing bubble in Vancouver since I moved here. The shocking part is it is actually worse here in Vancouver than it ever was in the states. What I am gobsmacked by is how mean and nasty people are to each other here, especially to renters. In the alternate reality universe of vancouver, the ability to borrow other peoples money to purchase a home somehow makes you better than a person who rents. Even if you are a gangster, but a homeowner, you are somehow better than the so called bitter renters. I love that movie, It's a Wonderful Life. I think people here need to take a good hard look at the themselves- are you Mr. Potter, the greedy banker, making it harder and harder for… Read more »

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

@Anonymous:

I find it ironic how bears assume that every homeowner is over-leveraged and are surprised at how the market stays afloat, but nearly all of them are boasting about their "gobs of cash". Perhaps you're not the only one in Vancouver with money?

Anonymous
Anonymous
10 years ago

I find it amusing when posters attempt to taunt bears with headlines of the equity markets falling. When the markets fall I see this as an excellent opportunity to buy. Buy with my gobs of cash that are not tied up in real estate. I don't see how a falling equity market is necessarily antithetical to a bearish position on real estate.

Spec
10 years ago

asianbirdflu: "Bear YOU LOST AGAIN YOU FORKING FREAKS!!!! The market about to take off like drunk rcmp at crash site. Every bull laughing hard at you hilarious retard."

Horton, why don't you just post by your "real" name?

domus
domus
10 years ago

Great! Inventory must be closer to 18,500! It is proving a hard target to reach.

Vansanity
Vansanity
10 years ago

I was coming back from UBC today driving through kits and saw lots of sold signs. I don't know anymore, I keep thinking this is the last hurrah, the last of the dumb money, the greatest fool, the latest sheep, and then another wave of them keeps buying. Maybe I should've got my real estate license, just as a side gig, nah.

paulb.
paulb.
10 years ago

New Listings 402

Price Changes 153

Sold Listings 285

scoop
scoop
10 years ago

@bubbly: When you go to the open house, can you also please ask the realtor what the heck "next to Simon Fraser University" means? It actually makes me wonder if this really is a crack shack.

Nero
Nero
10 years ago

@paulb.:

Wow, 257 sales and it still gets dwarfed by the number of NEW listings.

And again, lots of price changes too. Something tells me there weren't too many price changes on the upside.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
10 years ago

@bubbly:

Ask them if RS-7 zoning allows you to turn it into a whorehouse.

I'm assuming that's what they're referring to when they say it can be a "revenue property", I don't see how else you could get cash flow from that place off a $4000 mortgage payment.

spitfires
spitfires
10 years ago

@Best place on meth: Wow! I can't believe the Nikkei is below 10,000 again! Well, actually I can, but it's been kinda been like waiting out the housing bust in Vancouver! 😉

bubbly
bubbly
10 years ago

@scoop: They are doing an open house on May 22nd and May23rd. I think I will go there and make fun of them.

paulb.
paulb.
10 years ago

New Listings 385

Price Changes 153

Sold Listings 257

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
10 years ago

@scoop:

Well, at $998K they're sure to spark a bidding war.

After all, the house is a good 50 metres into the west side and obviously worth a $400K premium due to location.

Care Bear
Care Bear
10 years ago

@Primus:

"@Care Bear: Suck it up buttercup!"

Sorry, I can't. I wasn't blessed with your tremendous sucking abilities. Were you born with the ability to suck hard or was it formed over years of rejection over your small peen?

Why are all the bulls on this site so pork stupid? I can understand having a bullish opinion but at least form a cogent argument. Heck, even a moderately readable post would suffice.

scoop
scoop
10 years ago

Pop quiz: when is a mansion no longer a mansion?

This house, the face of the original "Crack Shack or Mansion" game, no longer qualifies as a "million dollar mansion". Despite all the free advertising from the popular game, the owners have had surprisingly few calls from interested buyers. But they still have bragging rights. With the house now listed to sell quickly at $998,000, they are for the time being the proud owners of the "Best priced home on the Westside!!"

Happy Renting
Happy Renting
10 years ago

@painted turtle said: I thought in order to erase debt, government were better off letting inflation go up

Most of the worlds major economies have central banks with a mandate to keep inflation at a low and steady rate. Governments don't really have the option to let inflation get high enough to significantly reduce debt.

I think the reason we are now seeing deflation, or close to it, is because the hedge funds are not longer adding trillions to the worlds money supply. And in spite of their best efforts, governments can't come close to filling the gap.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
10 years ago

Asian markets getting beaten like a rented mule again.

Shanghai now at 13 month low.

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

asianbirdflu
asianbirdflu
10 years ago

Bear YOU LOST AGAIN YOU FORKING FREAKS!!!! The market about to take off like drunk rcmp at crash site. Every bull laughing hard at you hilarious retard.

Casanova
Casanova
10 years ago

Canada versus the PIIGS

from our friend at ammericacanada blog

http://tinyurl.com/27a49nh

oneangryslav2
oneangryslav2
10 years ago

@oneangryslav2: Oops! just re-read my post and I made a little mistake:

I wrote "As of 2006, there were about 800,000 households in Metro Vancouver. Let’s assume that 2/3 of these–267,000–are made up of homeowners.

Of course, 267,000 is only 1/3 of 800,000. Two-thirds of 800,000 is 533,333.

In order to get an increase of MOI from 4 to 6 using my assumptions above, all you need is for 1,667 extra sales, which is 1667/533000, which is 0.31% of all home-owning households.