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Downtown Condo Unit List Tracker Index

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This one is for all the data hounds out there. The VCI Condo Unit Listing Tracker (CULT) index is a snapshot of inventory available at a few select downtown Vancouver condo towers. The widget you see at the upper right hand corner of this page shows the overall number of units and percentage of total that are available in the index.

At time of posting on Monday evening there are 568 units available for sale in the 27 towers that comprise the index. This is 6.66% of the total number of units in those towers, down from 6.79% last week. You can click on the widget at any time to visit the detailed breakdown page at http://vancouvercondo.info/cult-index.

The 27 towers in the index are: Brava, Carina, Cascina, Conference Plaza, Elan, Erickson, Espana, Fairmont, Flagship, H+H, Hudson, Koret, Lions Towers, Melville, Pinnacle, Qube, Ritz, Sapphire, Shangri-la, Smart, Space, Spectrum, The Park, TV Towers, Vita, Woodwards Towers and Yaletown Park towers. The current leader in percentage of units available for sale is The Erickson with 14 of 61 units or 22.95% available for sale.

This index was built and generously donated to the VCI community by c0der, the same programmer who gave us the comment rating system used on this site. c0der is a Systems Architect who works with Linux, Security, Oracle Fusion and PHP/MySQL technology stacks. If you have a project you’d like him to consult or program for you can email him directly: coder@vancouvercondo.info.

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Whybuywhenucanrent

Here it is… — Brookfield

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_LePage http://www.brookfieldres.com/

WBWUCR't'13?

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Anonymous

Wow, the index went up 0.06% – that's statistically signficant! [/sarcasm]

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Whybuywhenucanrent

patriotz —

Yes, you're correct on all counts.

None of these will specifically short RE, especially Western Canada RE, Vancouver RE, or new construction. But they might move more in sync with it than a general TSX short, and if Vancouver really goes bust, they'll certainly all suffer.

Another possible short is the outfit that owns Royal LePage Realty (it's a big REIT as I recall, I can't ferret it out of a quick Google search), but, again, it's only a small chunk of that outfit's overall revenue stream.

All of my digging around was done 18 months ago. Has anything changed? Any big Vancouver builders gone public, or gotten bought out by publicly traded companies? I haven't been paying much attention.

WBWUCR't'13?

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Anonymous

To realpaul and his fans, you guys are japanophiles.

In Japan, people are obsessed with poops. 😀

http://smt.blogs.com/mari_diary/2009/08/how-much-…

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patriotz

@Whybuywhenucanrent:

I don’t have my list handy, but these are some folks that won’t do so well in a major RE price drop –

* The big 5 banks

* Genworth Financial (sells mortgage insurance, mortgages?)

* The two insurance outfits — Sunlife, Manulife

* REITs — Calloway, Canadian Properties, a couple others.

Well they did just fine during the early 90's bust in Toronto, which in terms of valuation was probably the biggest ever seen in Canada.

The point you're missing is that these companies are not exposed to price drops in SFH and condos. The mortgage lenders are insured and the REITs don't own them.

Genworth is a different animal, they haven't been around for a prior bust and they are only 90% backed by the GoC. But shorting them is costly due to their 3.7% yield.

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VRENGD

@oneangryslav2:

I for one find realpaul's posts to be hillarious and the most entertaining posts on the site.

Yes, there are fecal reference but I have always been a fan of potty humor and I LOL whenever I read them. "Vanshitty" "Vanshitzone" "Shitty council". Too funny!

Keep on posting realpaul and please don't be deterred by the naysayers. Your voice is one of the most welcome voices on this blog.

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Girlbear

@Newcomer: They were aware of that…it was said as more of a theoretical…as in they were letting me know likely not a lot of US buyers coming our way…

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Whybuywhenucanrent

Shorting Vancouver Real Estate isn't possible. But you can short Canadian REITs, insurance companies and banks. All of these bought the farm big time in the fall of 2008 when Vancouver house prices were shooting through the floor. But then, pretty much any asset in the world was dropping through the floor. I don't have my list handy, but these are some folks that won't do so well in a major RE price drop – * The big 5 banks * Genworth Financial (sells mortgage insurance, mortgages?) * The two insurance outfits — Sunlife, Manulife * REITs — Calloway, Canadian Properties, a couple others. Whether or not these will tank depends on * National crash or BC crash? * Bailouts? * Slow crash or fast crash? * Degree to which CMHC will swallow all of the loss? * Magnitude of… Read more »

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oneangryslav2

@realpaul: I'm saying this with all sincerity, rp, but I really think you need some help. There were at least four references to fecal matter in that short post of yours, and it's rare that you produce a post that's not fecal-free.

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Newcomer

@girlbear:

You cannot short a country's real estate. You can short banks (right, whybuy) but you can't short RE.

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Inventory

************* 1/1/2010 / 5/25/2010 / % change Bowen Isld 46 / 110 / 139.13% _Bby East 68 / 187 / 175.00% _Bby North 345 / 840 / 143.48% Bby South 362 / 851 / 135.08% Coquitlam 531 / 1246 / 134.65% Van.&Gulf 215 / 276 / 28.37% ___Ladner 65 / 156 / 140.00% MapleRidge 575 / 1104 / 92.00% _New West 262 / 639 / 143.89% _North Van. 412 / 1094 / 165.53% OutofTown 105 / 66 / -37.14% _Pitt Mead 121 / 209 / 72.73% _Port Coq. 237 / 488 / 105.91% PortMoody 213 / 472 / 121.60% _Richmond 893 / 2149 / 140.65% _Squamish 402 / 525 / 30.60% Sunshine C. 656 / 1135 / 73.02% _Tsawssen 98 / 209 / 113.27% __Van East 767 / 1606 / 109.39% _Van West 1396 / 3642 / 160.89% _West Van… Read more »

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mflat

Love the tracker, but I think it's been mis-named. You should have named it the following to honor the hard working Real Estate agents that have been the real heroes of the BC economy:

VCI Condo Unit Number Tracker Stats (CUNTS) index

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TOL

>>Construction to begin now on projects to shelter 1,000 of poorest residents by 2013.<<

High time the province get their act together. I'm sick of scumlords taking full advantage of these poor people and robbing their social welfare checks by providing filthy 3rrd-world accommodation.

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arit

At the gym, at work, today… YoungCoworker: I have recently bought a house. arit: Congratulations! You must be very happy. YoungCoworker: Yes, I finally did it, had to get in as house pricres will skyrocket in the coming years. It's buy now or be priced out forever. arit: So what did you get? YoungCoworker: I bought an apartment in downtown from Concord pacific. Will be ready in two years. arit:, Aaa, a pre-sale. One bedroom? Plan to live there or resale? YoungCoworker: Two, actually! Plan to live there… arit: I see. Half a million dollars? YoungCoworker: Yes… arit: 5% down? YoungCoworker: No, 10%. arit: May I ask? Do you know, YoungCoworker, that there is a small group, a minority of lunatics, crazy really… who actually believe that house prices will go down, not up? Are you aware of the existance… Read more »

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realpaul

I heard it announced on the CBC today that RE now takes 70+ % of pre tax income to support. PRE TAX ! The commentator admitted that house purchases are out the the range of the average wage earner. So whos left? The number was lower for condos. Does any of the FTB buyers have the illusion that they are going to raise a child in a 500 sq ft apartment downtown? As soon as the girl gets pregnant, you're screwed, literally. So the government sold out to the developers, who pressured the government not to limit foriegn Chinese speculators ( woops wheres my 'cultural sensitivity) and we have people who pay 70% of their income to live in a shithole unfit for a doghouse because a condo will never allow them to have a family. It behooves me to… Read more »

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person who never com

Has anyone else noticed that there were an incredible number of rental listings for today on Craigslist? I have never seen anywhere close to this many. Page after page. Maybe people prepared over the long weekend and everyone is seeking a tenant to replace all the young couples that got sucked into buying over the last year (and those same couples have created suites and are seeking tenants to make the numbers work). Seems like a plausible explanation.

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junius

Neptune, I feel the same, perhaps with fewer grey hairs.

Nonetheless, we've waited what seemed FOREVER for this to come…what can stop us now?

lower rates? no

deductible interest? well, with record gov't deficits, I don't see it

china buyers? this is a wildcard, but when they see prices are falling and with no tax on their market, i think more money stays in the homeland, or perhaps goes bargain hunting down south

its over.

I see a 10% decline in place by the end of summer at the latest. The hopefull types will call it a healthy correction. But with another 10% off by year end, confidence will implode and sink this led zepplin.

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Spec

@ RP1: "The first rule of Bear Club is

1) you don’t talk about bear club, especially in Vancouver"

Shhhhhh! 🙂

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jesse

Province, business leaders to inject $200-million into Vancouver sites

Construction to begin now on projects to shelter 1,000 of poorest residents by 2013.

Who's going to rent my 400 sqft basement suite now? Thanks, Rich Coleman. I wonder who's getting the construction contracts…

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Neptune

Back in 2000 I was just a Cub. Over the last 10yrs I have matured into a a big Bear. Now I am a Wolf, awaiting the slaughter of pigs.

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Anonymous

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-24/fha-h…

May 24 (Bloomberg) — Loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration, the U.S.-owned mortgage insurer, may be involved in more home-purchase transactions than borrowing financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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junius

Right On.

We have a shot at 19,000 for month end. I do expect month-end expiries to knock us back a thousand and some. So probably mid-June for 20,000 party!!!!!!!!!!!!

But its coming. Prices are DOWN for May. Down hard.

you heard it here first

junius

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PAULB.

Love the CULT index Pope. We will fun to watch!

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PAULB.

18,599 lol

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rp1

@girlbear:

The first rule of Bear Club is

1) you don't talk about bear club, especially in Vancouver

The second rule is

2) bears are never happy 🙂

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