Vancouver Condo Info

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/search/apa?quer…

It could be that the “front line” workers can’t handle the stigma of living in social assistance housing.

That implies that the asking price is too high, since those who would not be "stigmatized" would not be able to pay as much as the civic workers, or members of the public with similar ability to pay.

BTW social assistance housing has been integrated into the original False Creek South (between Granville and Cambie) for decades, and I've certainly never noticed any stigma about living there. It's not a concept that was invented for the OV.

Of course it cannot be proven with 100% certainty that the units would rent for more in a fully open market, but the fact is that the eligible civic workers (and there are thousands of them) have higher than median incomes, and they have a motivation to live near their jobs, and still half the units have gone begging.

If someone has a cohesive argument that there are people in the general population who'd be willing to pay more than the city's asking price, I'd like to hear it. Do note that Craigslist is chock full of rental listings for similar prices, many larger or better located.

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Gordon C. Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:04 am 19

If you're going to market OV for the next two years, you don't want most of the suites to be vacant. Filling them with renters that have $60,000 plus government salaries a year is better than having the suites rented to the general public that may have less "professional" methods of earning an income. It will give the complex that needed appearance of "professionalism"

It may have been better, if the city had agreed only to rent to real estate agents. At least the parking area would have been filled with Lexus, BMW and Mercedes cars.

Or another alternative, would be to relocate all of the affordable housing programs into the OV. To me, it doesn't make sense to keep funding programs and renting buildings for affordable housing in areas like the DTES when the complex has already been built. Perhaps the OV, could form part of Native Land claims.

After all, a society should be measured by how it treats the underprivileged. And if we are the best place on Earth, should we not set the example? The money's gone – suck it up Vancouver.

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jesse Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:14 am 20

@patriotz:

If someone has a cohesive argument that there are people in the general population who’d be willing to pay more than the city’s asking price, I’d like to hear it.

Having a stable landlord (i.e. the City) is worth some premium for tenants, who would be less likely to be evicted and will have more certainty of recourse and SLA. Also having stable (and one assumes reliable) tenants is worth some discount to the City as Gordon C. indicated. This of course means the City can't get a way paying "full market" rate to such tenants unless they offer something to compensate (which I think they do).

How much the quality of the two counterparties nets a premium or discount, and the actual rental rate vis a vis other properties on the rental market, I don't know.

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:15 am 21

@Chilled:

No doubt, Vancouver’s over abundance of greedy slum landlords have pushed people into home “ownership’ who otherwise wouldn’t have taken the plunge.

That simply makes no sense. The plain fact is that you can easily rent any kind of accommodation for far less than you would pay to buy it today. That's the bottom line.

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Strataman Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:24 am 22

@patriotz: "That implies that the asking price is too high, since those who would not be “stigmatized” would not be able to pay as much as the civic workers, or members of the public with similar ability to pay.

My point was it is not a market price, in fact my own opinion is many short"cited" persons would pay for the privilege of living there at least for the first year far above what the civic worker pays. Any type of restricted clientele immediately dissolves the "it is market price" argument. You of all people preach this continuously.

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:32 am 23

@arit:

Many houses are underpriced, mainly in Florida, Phoenix and California.

Sure there are a few disaster areas like Stockton and Cape Coral, etc, but the fact is that the major markets in CA and Fla are still way above 2001 prices, and even Phoenix is higher (100 = 2001 price):

http://www.standardandpoors.com/spf/docs/case-shi…

The US as a whole is still 30% above 2001 prices. And prices were by no means low by historical norms in 2001.

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:41 am 24

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&a…

Any type of restricted clientele immediately dissolves the “it is market price” argument.

It doesn't dissolve it, it weakens it. And when the restricted clientele is a good deal more affluent than the general public, that's not much of a weakening.

The concrete facts are that half the OV units have yet to be rented, and there are similar (or better) units offered to the public at similar (and unlike the city's units, negotiable downward) prices. That is not conclusive proof of market pricing, but that's the only hard evidence there is. The argument that the city's units are being offered at below market price has no hard evidence at all.

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Devore Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:46 am 25

@SuperSmartBull: Well, you also have to look at the actual location, and the unit itself. OV is brand spanking new, top notch appointments, nice location (unlike say the Spectrum towers area, the armpit of DT), not a ghost town, and a stable landlord.

I've seen many places in the last month, and one of the first things I ask is how long you've had the place. All the condos I looked at, over a dozen, ALL, the owner had between 1-3 years with the property. Many without even asking offered to drop price for "good" tenant with 1 year lease. Uhm, thanks but no thanks. I don't want to be getting a call 6 months from now begging me to break my lease and move out because they have to sell.

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Bubble Lad Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:48 am 26

@crabman: I love the way renters are portrayed as living in their own filth and crawling with bugs! I mean, if you're going to write a puff piece, at least do it with a finer brush! I thought Vancouver PR douchebags were bad, but Seattle is no slouch either.

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Strataman Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:49 am 27

@patriotz: "The argument that the city’s units are being offered at below market price has no hard evidence at all."

And there is not one shred of evidence that they are being offered at "Market Price". Name branding carries a lot of weight in this town,peoples eyes glow when they lease a BMW because they are "in". You are saying name branding has absolutely no effect on what people are willing to pay? I'm not discussing IQ here just the facts of how people think. Rented on the general market using the prices quoted by the city as the "minimum" but marketing to highest bidder for renting I am pretty sure would result in 100% occupancy at higher rental income. If not explain to me why name brand stores exist here!

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KWL Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:54 am 28

If people such as the poor soul who ended up having to buy can't find decent places to rent then I suggest they just aren't looking hard enough. Right now in S. Granville there is an over abundance of rentals. Some have had signs up for a few months now.

There are still one bedrooms in three story walk ups in S. Granville to be had for less than $1000 per month. Most of the buildings are older so one bedrooms are usually quite large. Say anywhere from 600-800 square feet.

The best way to find a rental is to walk the hood, take numbers, then call from your cell right outside. Hopefully you can see the place on the spot.

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Bubble Lad Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:59 am 29

@patriotz: @patriotz: As a person who rents in Vancouver, I can tell you looking for a place is a f-ing joke.

Sure there are rentals, but because notice is only 30 days, you're left scrambling around looking at ridiculously overpriced places rented by people that seem to treat you as suspect for wanting to rent from them in the first place (a very Vancouver experience!).

Of course you're going to see a few nightmare places, but I think people have used that as a way to rationalize their purchase of a home so they can fit in with their snooty, provincial, fellow "home owners" (really renting from the bank).

In Vancouver it's all about who you know, what 'hood you live in, and never, ever, EVER questioning the status quo.

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Strataman Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:04 am 30

@Bubble Lad: "In Vancouver it’s all about who you know, what ‘hood you live in, and never, ever, EVER questioning the status quo."

Perfect!!

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jesse Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:06 am 31

@KWL:

Some have had signs up for a few months now.

Why do you think that is? My relatives and friends who rent out suites get dozens of applicants, even recently. Unfortunately, few of the applicants pass the smell test. That professionally run units are taking longer to occupy is indicative of a significant oversupply of housing.

Strataman makes a good argument on branding but, in terms of longer term rent prospects, renters pay for the quality and not the brand. Rents can depreciate too!

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Strataman Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:12 am 32

@patriotz: Aquarius and Marina Side Resorts are across the pond from OV.

Give me a list of rentals from 10 year old buildings that are even close to OV rental prices! Tell me which is HIGHER?

Both these places have a "Name". They are also not LEED certified as OV is. (Real expensive to maintain but I love it! )

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No Longer Looking Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:12 am 33

@space889: "I’m thinking if the authors are just making these type of stories up or embellishing them for you know the journalist equivalent of artistic dramatization in movies."

Its an advertorial plain and simple. Realtors pay a lot of money for ads in these local papers. Its a huge part of their income. Notice at the bottom of the story, there is a "reaction" from the realtor quoted in the story. Considering how suffering the local media is these days, thanks to the recession, I wouldn't be surprised if this story is bought and paid for by Goss.

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Bubble Lad Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:20 am 34

@No Longer Looking: Most of those "articles" you can find as the original press release online if you dig a bit – then they hand it off to the "writer" who calls a RE agent or some other "soft source" – drag and drop and voila! you have a (cough) "news" story.

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Bilbo Bloggins Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:21 am 35

Pundits think there won't be a meltdown because our banking system is more conservative.

That might well be the case, but the mere fact that prices will fall by any amount has the potential for a snowball effect.

So many buyers have leveraged to the hilt that they REQUIRE house prices to appreciate and rates to stay low.

Affordability is so bad that any slowdown in price appreciation can potentially force the market to collapse under it's own weight.

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Strataman Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:22 am 36

@jesse: "renters pay for the quality and not the brand." Which is why I would pretty well put the OV in social housing status. Not a one of those cops/firemen/teachers will be there in two years. This is the only year they COULD make above average rents, after 2012 below average.

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KWL Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:33 am 37

Well jesse I'm not too sure why vacancies are sitting empty in S. Granville at the moment. Usually places are snapped up within a few days. Even the last unit in my building took over three weeks to fill and usually they have been filled within a day or two.

The building across from me has had a one bedroom for rent for almost two months now. I'm not sure if the sign is for the same unit but never before has a sign been out in front of that building for more than a few days. Pretty much my whole street has vacancy signs up.

So yeah, you've got your pick of places right now in S. Granville.

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Strataman Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:38 am 38

@patriotz: "when the restricted clientele is a good deal more affluent than the general public, that’s not much of a weakening."

I don't know what world you live in but in False Creek area I'd be really hard pressed to find some one living here who made as little as a COV employee. And we are talking OV False Creek Yes?

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superbear Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:43 am 39

A little o/t but does anyone else hate those reach toothbrush commercial with the chicks in pyjamas raving about a toothbrush? What a stupid commercial. At first I was fully expecting it to be an advertisement for bike lanes or OV condos or something stupid like that and then WAM! TOOTHBRUSH. UNBELIEVABLE.

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bigbadbear1 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:44 am 40

Bahahaha, my favourite part of that 'Burnaby News' real estate article:

“You will always end up having the choice on where you will live,” he said. “You’re not being told where to look anymore. Realtors are here to educate you in every step of the process and show you the factors that can affect your purchase. But you will decipher what it is you want and whether you can do it.”

And ya I'm sure Mr. Real Estate Agent was really looking out for the best interests of a 56 year old woman who is going to have a mortgage until she's 90 years old.

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realpaul Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:53 am 41

I'm sure the smarmy civil service workers in Europe thought they lived in ivory towers until the shit hit the fan. Hey…I've got news for the entitled shitheads that currently work for the local government. We are more in debt here than any European capital and the only thing thats holding us up is the expanding credit bubble. Euro style wage and benefit slashing WILL happen here, its a matter of when …not if.

Think the taxpayer is a bottomless pit and you deserve an extra 20% thrown into your pension fund on top of your parasitic wages and perks? Well…….the math challenged whiners in Europe thought that debt exceeding 100% of GDP was a joke too. What is it currently in Canada ….145% of GDP….. and you people think the party will never end? Fools.

The government of Canada recieved a shot across the bow two weeks ago by way of a warning from the IMF and the OECD that we were going tits up on debt. I heard Harper announce today that an austerity program would begin as early as September when they end all stimulus spending. Think he doesn't have to listen to the IMF? Think again. If Canada gets sanctioned and loses it's AAA rating as so many countries have recently, the BLAM there goes his dream of a majority government. The civil service constitutes only 15% of the votes….do you still feel safe? If you do then have another glass of scotch with youe kool aid, you're going to need the buzz.

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RPcounter Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 12:05 pm 42

@realpaul 41

Shit references: 2

Tit references: 1

Pretty tame.

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 12:30 pm 43

The only conclusive evidence as to whether the City's rents for the OV reflect the open market will be when privately owned OV units are offered for rent. The city is legally precluded from offering the units at question for rent to the public.

IMHO there is a lot of downside on market rents at the high end. There is simply too much product and not enough people willing to rent them at current prices. We have been talking about this issue for months.

So let's see what happens. I don't think we're in for a long wait. And remember, the City's rents are for real and Craigslist rents often are not.

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oneangryslav2 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 12:36 pm 44

@Devore: You are either a moron or a liar (though the two certainly are not mutually exclusive).

Here's a quick search of Craigslist for properties in Vancouver, with the keyword "Downtown" and rents of between 1200 and 1500 per month.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/search/apa/van?…

There are 985 hits.

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Rob A. Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 12:40 pm 45

Of course people aren't going to rent in the Olympic Village.

There aren't ANY cafes or restaurants around there.

No cultural activities. The area is dead. ZERO ACTION.

That might change in the distant future. But right now, downtown vancouver is the only place to be for people in the know.

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Bubble Lad Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 12:55 pm 46

@Rob A.: It does have a space station vibe about the place. It's a long haul uphill to the restaurants on Main. You can walk through the DTES warzone to gastown. Or you can take a 30 dollar cab ride to 4th. The grocery stores are over at Cambie. Plus you can smell the raw sewage and low tide smell of False creek (but this is all in the sales brochure, no doubt).

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Newcomer Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:01 pm 47

@Vansanity:

Re Seattle:

What is even more amazing about Seattle RE is the situation for offices in the downtown core. There are entire floors empty in some of the best buildings. This is just what I have seen (no stats) but it's surprising. There core is smaller than the Vancouver core but serves twice the population and a number of actual industries.

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Purp1 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:01 pm 48

There are market rentals at the OV. There are 120 units for rent by Millennium Property Management. They sent me an info sheet showing the rents are around $2.50 / sq.ft regardless of size. So that makes the city OV units considerably less at $2.00 / sq. ft.

If you want to confirm or know more, email them at admin@millenniumpro.com. They are having an open house this weekend.

My personal feeling is that the larger city OV units will rent quite quickly now that they've received some good publicity. It is not easy to find clean, new 3+ bedroom units in that price range in Van West.

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Anonymous Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:10 pm 49

From that comment on "who is to blame.."

"These families will have no extra money for “nice things”. Many will have a very stressfull next few years that will end in banruptcy, foreclosure, divorce or a life sentence of huge debt and no money."

***********

Actually, there will probably be fewer divorces…

It has been shown in both the UK and US downturns that divorce rates drop when assets are underwater, and rise when values are excessive, particularly amongst higher income individuals…

Few people want to “split” a short sale or negative equity…

So this coming crash might be good for our divorce rate, as more couples are forced to stick it out and share both the “good” and the “bad” times…

So this coming crash might not only enhance the affordability of house, but in doing so, it might:

• eliminate the perceived class divisions between owner and renter in Vancouver;

• slap the smugness out of 25 real estate agents who make big bucks for “knowing” that prices always go up;

• make people realize that wealth comes from hard work, savings, and prudent investments;

• undermine the sense of entitlement of many generation Ys and Xs and the instant gratification endemic to our society;

• erode the rampant materialism where one is judged by the sum of their possession as opposed to the strength of their character;

• enhance the mobility of the workforce, and hence economic productivity, as more people decide to rent and move to where the jobs are; and

• force loved ones and families to focus on the important things in life – friends, family, love and laughter

I don’t know about you all, but I see this coming crash as a social, economic, and psychological “cleansing opportunity” and I am pretty excited!

There might be some short term pain for some families and individuals, but in the long term, I think it can really strengthen the moral foundation of our society.

Call me an optimist bear ☺

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Bubble Lad Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:16 pm 50

@Anonymous: well said.

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:18 pm 51

@Anonymous:

There might be some short term pain for some families and individuals

How's the sort-term pain doing south of the border?

A lot of people are going to be screwed for life. There have been plenty of examples right on this board. Buying a house at the right price is the most important financial decision you can ever make. The only "short term" pain will be for the 0 or 5% down 20somethings who will walk away from their condos and declare BK.

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jesse Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:37 pm 52

@Anonymous 49:

enhance the mobility of the workforce, and hence economic productivity

It's only when sales volume is high — which usually occurs in flat or rising markets — that we can claim mobility is enhanced. I think with falling prices, which may be persistent for a long time, workforce mobility will be hampered for a long time. Your post is good but some of these benefits will happen many years off. I agree it's a good thing and necessary to start the process as quickly as possible but let's not kid ourselves thinking a return to normalcy will be fast.

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Royce McCutcheon Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:39 pm 53

As I learn more about the ups and downs of real estate – and the long history of bubbles in other markets – I keep thinking of this PBF comic:

http://pbfcomics.com/?cid=PBF111-Reset.jpg

I guess, on a macro scale, we never learn.

RE: "Sales to listings ratio whiplash!" – that's an awesome representation of where we are at. I will be showing that to a few people for sure.

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Spin Doctor Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:53 pm 54

Sorry, 49 was me…

51 -"How’s the sort-term pain doing south of the border?"

As for the short-term pain, you are right that the young ones without skin in the game will less problems. Seven years of bankruptcy goes by in the blink of an eye, and puts most of those people at an age where they should probably be buying anway.

Those who are older, have families, and/or other assets, will be harder hit for sure.

That being said, I know two families who bought at the peak in 81, and had to mail in their keys when values plummeted and interest rates rose. They had to rent for many many years. But both families eventually did just fine and raised their kids to know the value of a dollar.

They raised kids who are the prudent savers and investors and the ones that consistently live below their means. These are the types of individuals we want to foster in our society – not the current materialistic instant gratification types that plague our market.

Again, perhaps I am just an optimistic bear…

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domus Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:56 pm 55

@Anonymous: Ditto! I am still clapping hands.

The cleansing effect of a crash is surely beneficial.

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realpaul Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:59 pm 56

OK, so the property tax bills are in the mail and voila, mine reads an increase of 32% !!!!!! Not only have the property assesments that were done at peak prices going to add a whopping 21% increase onto the tax bill but the cunts have also increased the school , sewer police and fire etc etc etc (gotta keep giving those union parasites wage and benefits that are double and triple the private sec tor right?). So theres no inflation in city services right, its all revenue neutral right and the HST is going to creat a million jobs right and the cow flew over the freaking moon. Kids…….listen…..100% is everything…remeber that next time one of these union cunts is crying for a hand out.

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bulltastic Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:08 pm 57

Uh oh bear yield keep dropping and bank just dropping 5 year rate again! You know why this is bear? Because BOC not raising rate on tuesday. What does it mean for Vancouver condo? It means the start of Vancouver boom 2.

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Van Renter Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:09 pm 58

Any one know what happen to kite the moon? Kinka missed him.

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Spin Doctor Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:13 pm 59

56 RP

I don't have too much sympathy…

Why don't you translate that percentage increase into an actual dollar amount…

If you did, the "shock" value of the increase would be negligible…

So your property tax went up a couple of hundred/maybe thousand dollars…(which is unlikely since Metro approved I believe a 9% increase this year, as part of a 30% over the next 3 or 4 years)

That is nothing compared with your likely 100% or 200% appreciation in the value of your home – in hundreds of thousands of dollars…

It is pretty funny watching homeowners complain about rising property taxes when they are so nominal compared to the level of services provided. Heck, they complain when their water and sewer bills go up 50 or 100 bucks.

Its even funnier when homeowners fail to raise a stink when their income taxes, in part, because they never get to see where their money actually goes, unlike local government taxes. You should be more worried about that (unless retired) as you will love what is coming down the barrel in the next few years…

Paying a couple of hundred bucks in property taxes is not going to break the back of homeowners…

PS – What till you see what your bill will be for the Iona wastewater treatment upgrade , since I know you love your fecal focus. When you and every other Metro homeowner gets that bill, then maybe I will have a little sympathy (hint – it will be more than your current increase that you are complaining about)

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Spin Doctor Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:16 pm 60

Correction

"Its even funnier when homeowners fail to raise a stink when their income taxes RISE…"

"PS – WAIT till you see what your…"

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:24 pm 61

@Spin Doctor:

That is nothing compared with your likely 100% or 200% appreciation in the value of your home – in hundreds of thousands of dollars…

That's meaningless. Even if they wanted to, homeowner collectively cannot sell at market price. The appreciation is not realizable. That's why capital gains taxes (on taxable assets) are levied only at time of sale.

It's also why our property tax system uses assessed values only to apportion taxes, not to determine them.

That said, I don't believe anyone's property taxes went up 30% this year.

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SuperSmartBull Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:29 pm 62

RealPaul's taxes went up 32%! Also by his calculations inflation is up 20% this year. At this rate he'll be bankrupt by 2011 but still no better at math.

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RPcounter Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:32 pm 63

@RealPaul 56

Cunt count : 2

Shit count : 0

Tit count : 0

Exclamation count : 6

Just warming up….

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Best place on meth Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:41 pm 64

West Van median price down 4% this month according to Larry.

http://www.yattermatters.com/wp/wp-content/images…

Somebody send up the Bat Signal, or whatever signal it is they use to summon wealthy Asians to rush over and buy more real estate.

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paulb. Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:45 pm 65

New Listings 200

Price Changes 114

Sold Listings 127

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Strataman Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:45 pm 66

@Purp1: Nice info! Thanks! So that would make them subsidized social housing for Civil Servants right patriotz?

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NO-LYMPICS Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:48 pm 67

Anecdote:

Friend of mine bought a house without selling his current one first. He then had his current one listed and had it sold to an Asian guy in a Mercedes, only "subject to" was financing.

The sale should have concluded last Friday, and he told me the deal feel through. His realtor weas pissed, as the other agent should have made sure his client was pre-qualified.

IMHO, and given there were other interested parties, if that 1st buyer f*cks up, you have likely scared off other buyers.

My friend has a loan to cover his new purchase, but I think he will be in trouble, given this current RE market and he may have to accept low ball offer to extricate himself from this mess.

I wonder if this is a new phenomenon going on…..people being jerked around by bogus offers.

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NO-LYMPICS Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 2:55 pm 68

Re West Van:

West Van has historically been the land of the nouveau riche' , a place whereby a lot of overnite millionaires would chose to live. Thus it could be one of the more volatile RE markets, and an indication of overall economy /RE market.

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jesse Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:01 pm 69

@Spin Doctor:

t is pretty funny watching homeowners complain about rising property taxes

Have you seen the wage increases in recent years for municipal employees? There should be no surprise why property taxes are increasing at the rate they are. This is not necessarily a bad thing but… more than a few homeowners are complaining because their salaries aren't increasing at the same rate as the property taxes, for what is ostensibly the same level of service.

Renters and anyone else who enters a city should be keeping tabs on property taxes as well. They indirectly pay them as well through higher rents and prices. Again, not that higher taxes are necessarily a bad thing, depending upon the level of service provided.

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jesse Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:09 pm 70

@NO-LYMPICS: Bogus offers are nothing new. "Subject to financing" is close to the biggest joke of a clause I've seen in any signed residential RE contract. The clause should really state "subject to buyer changing his/her mind" but a seller would never accept that. Guess they prefer believing a plausible lie than the cold hard truth but that should be no surprise to readers here.

Has anyone actually taken a buyer to task on a financing subject falling through?

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NO-LYMPICS Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:12 pm 71

Property tax increases have been higher than the rate of inflation, not even including the compounding effect.

I recall reading a statistic that 92% of School District funds are directed towards salaries.

Regardless, its unsustainable, no matter how the unions try to promote it otherwise.

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Strataman Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:16 pm 72

@patriotz: As you said! "And when the restricted clientele is a good deal more affluent than the general public, that’s not much of a weakenin"

Which if Purp1 is correct (haven't checked) "There are market rentals at the OV. There are 120 units for rent by Millennium Property Management. They sent me an info sheet showing the rents are around $2.50 / sq.ft regardless of size. So that makes the city OV units considerably less at $2.00 / sq. ft.

Then the obvious conclusion is The more affluent safe renters need to be subsidized by 25%, and the normal un affluent wage earner? This city is well on it's way to becoming bankrupt!
http://tinyurl.com/35cfttr

I honestly see the day in the next 4 years of 50% + layoffs in the civil service and without a doubt total collapse of their pension funds.

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Tony Danza Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:17 pm 73

@NO-LYMPICS: The lazy realtor that didn't qualify his client wouldn't happen to be a bald headed guy with little man syndrome whose lame self-made marketing videos are posted all over Youtube would it?

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Tony Danza Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:21 pm 74

Can we have a poll as to when astute posters think "I can't rent three husba can't rent three, CRASH, CRASH, CRASH!" will be the new battle cry/whimper of Vancouver's investor class?

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Joe Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:24 pm 75

I saw a REDUCED sign in Surrey today for the first time in over a year. The tide is turning!

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Tony Danza Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:26 pm 76

@NO-LYMPICS: I find that statistic very hard to believe, maintaining school buildings/grounds only takes up a slice of 8% of school district funds? Sure.

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Purp1 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:31 pm 77

Come on guys…we all have access to Google, fact check before you post. Here is the Vancouver School Board budget.

http://www.vsb.bc.ca/sites/default/files/publicat…

Hilights:

Instruction (teacher salaries) : 84.3%

Building Ops and Maint : 12.1%

Admin : 3%

Transportation : 0.6%

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oneangryslav2 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:39 pm 78

@NO-LYMPICS:

"I recall reading a statistic that 92% of School District funds are directed towards salaries.

I remember reading that close to 100% of claims made on the Internet that are not backed up with links to sources are b.s.

What % of school district funds, in your opinion, should be allocated towards salaries?

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paulb. Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:42 pm 79

New Listings 227

Price Changes 146

Sold Listings 148

lame!

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oneangryslav2 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:43 pm 80

@Purp1: I posted before reading your post. Which category would books/equipment (like computers) fall under? Building ops/maintenance? Not likely, but then the other three categories are even more unlikely.

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oneangryslav2 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:48 pm 81

@oneangryslav2: I've found the answer to my own question. From page 4 of the document Purp1 cited:

"Operating expenses for instruction comprise 84.3% of the total budget and include salary and benefits for teachers, principals, vice-principals, educational assistants, support staff and other professional staff included in delivering educational programs, along with related supplies and services.

So supplies are included in the 84.3% that is allotted to the Instruction category. Thus, teachers' salaries make up a much smaller percentage of the total budget than even the 84.3% allotted to instruction as not only are Principals' and other Adminstrators' wages included in this total but so are the costs of supplies and other (i.e., non-instructional) services.

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Fuzzy Wuzzy... Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:49 pm 82

70 per cent of the province’s real estate purchases last year were

made with the average income of $45,000, either combined or from one person.

This to me proves that the myth of rich Asians buying up all our real estate is false. Now I hope all the racists and/or xenophobics will shut the hell up!

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Jim Bob Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:54 pm 83

I’m interested in what brings the bears here. What are your reasons for wanting the market to go down?

Waiting to buy a place at a discount?

Want to laugh at an asshole home owner?

Want to laugh at offshore Chinese people?

Just want to prove that this is a bubble?

I'm waiting to buy a place at a discount.

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Best place on meth Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:56 pm 84

@Jim Bob:

All of the above, Jim Bob. All of the above.

Most of all, I want to see the real estate disease eradicated from this once great city.

A cleansing and healing if you will.

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Tony Danza Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 4:00 pm 85

@oneangryslav2: Never mind the fact that property taxes have little to do with school board funding as it's a provincial funding liability.

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bulltastic Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 4:03 pm 86

@Jim Bob: Too bad for bear none of any of these thing happen any time anywhere. Rent due on Monday bear. Rent due on Monday.

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Racist Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 4:07 pm 87

Them der chinese be making wontons for 45,000 per year legit, the rest of the offshore money comes being evil doers.

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Jim Bob Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 4:11 pm 88

We@bulltastic:

I guess we'll see about that. Doesn't look good for bulls right now though. You should sell, mortgage payments are due.

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A Bear Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 4:16 pm 89

@Bulltastic

You mortgage is also due next Monday and it is much bigger than a rent payment. If we renters really have no money to pay the rent, it takes 6 – 12 months to evict us for the owners. If you have no money to pay your much bigger mortgage payment, the bank will fourclose your home in three months. Hahahahahaha.

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oneangryslav2 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 4:33 pm 90

@bulltastic: And if I were a homeowner instead, my mortgage payment and strata fees would also be due on Monday. And guess what? They would (conservatively) total 200% of what I'm currently paying in rent.

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bored Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 4:33 pm 91

Cold and wintery rainy days like this are here to remind us constantly what living in the best place on earth is like. But sure we have the best quality of life on the planet.

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realpaul Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 5:06 pm 92

We can only hope that the SSB's of the world aren't accountants…wait of course they aren't,that would take an underlying grasp of math, more likely they're city hall trolls paid on the public dime to monitor the public forums that defy the assholes at shitty hall. No private citizen could otherwise be that stupid. Not understanding your tax bill means you didn't get one, meaning you don't own a property, meaning you've got nothing intersting read when your mail comes. And no, that pre approved credit card application isn't from a new friend who loves you.

The fact that you haven't noticed the skyrocketing inflation just shows us that you don't drive, buy your own bus pass, pay any bills, have any children who need to have things like clothes and school supplies etc etc all the while living in your moms basement. Now, even if you'd stop stealing mommies hand lotion to masturbate with while watching YTV and went out to buy your own lube, you'd have realized that prices on everything have been increasing at a steady rate of , what I average out to be and some things have gone up much more, like meat, milk, bread, rice etc etc, but of course you don't know that because you don't eat out and you don't purchase your own foods, clothes, tuitions, gas, bus pass etc. Since I do have to take responsibilty for myself I use what I call the Ketchup Indicator, that alone has risen the price of ketchup over 100% in the past few years. Given that I pay for everything with money I have earned, I remember the price of things…..yes SSB, you can use youe mind for things other than finding your draw string and flipping back the lotion top.

Now give Mommie her lotion back and get out of the basement, the world has changed since pee pee came calling.

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Royce McCutcheon Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 5:10 pm 93

@Jim Bob:

I'm tracking Vancouver RE because I'm genuinely scared about the misallocation of effort and resources in my local economy (well, and across this country and around the globe). The sooner this mess unravels, the sooner the healing can begin (I hope).

If the fit hits the shan on a big enough scale, many people who made the right calls and stayed out of this mess may also pay a price. I personally believe that, like it or not, we're all in this together.

As ever, thanks to the posters on this site who've helped me crystallize my thinking on this.

(As long as we're addressing curiosity, I have a question: if the all-in costs were about equal between renting and owning, which would you prefer? I think I'd favor not having to worry about upkeep over the flexibility to do what I want with a space, but that's just me.)

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The Mayors Office Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 5:45 pm 94

Vancouvers harbour water used in robberies. Race on to bottle it as an alternative to bear spray.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/crime/article/816…

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 5:45 pm 95

Nice info! Thanks! So that would make them subsidized social housing for Civil Servants right patriotz?

If someone shows us substantially identical properties rented on the open market for more, yes it does. But no one has.

Btw, http://www.millenniumpro.com is a null web site. How come these rentals aren't being marketed openly on the web like everything else in town? Do a Google on "Millenium Property Management Vancouver" and see what comes up. It would appear they don't have a web site. Kinda strange for Vancouver's signature RE development.

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paulb. Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 5:48 pm 96

New Listings 283

Price Changes 178

Sold Listings 183

18,852 not bad

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 5:50 pm 97

@NO-LYMPICS:

West Van.. could be one of the more volatile RE markets, and an indication of overall economy /RE market.

Not "could be", but "has been". West Van led the way down in both speed and magnitude in the 2008 mini-bust, and I think it took a real beating in 1981-82 as well. Home of the poseurs.

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Chilled Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 5:52 pm 98

@Van Renter:

Any one know what happen to kite the moon? Kinka missed him.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

I have no idea, but if I was a betting man I would wager that he is "hanging from the rafters." This giving a whole new meaning to the term "well hung." LOL

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Chilled Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 5:55 pm 99

Has anyone actually taken a buyer to task on a financing subject falling through?

+++++++++++

I did once, but my lawyer dropped it as it was conditional to 'subject to financing.'

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City Hall Rocks Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 5:56 pm 100

"We can only hope that the SSB’s of the world aren’t accountants…wait of course they aren’t,that would take an underlying grasp of math, more likely they’re city hall trolls paid on the public dime to monitor the public forums that defy the assholes at shitty hall."

As one of those trolling city hall types, I have expedited a request to re-assess your property tax bill. Good news, in accordance, with your wishes and your statement, you property tax bill will now actually show a 32% increase. Hopefully that leaves you with enough money for your schizo medications, your bottles of lube, and your ketchup – but I doubt it, your meds must cost a fortune!

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manx Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 6:00 pm 101

I have a friend who just told me she bought in tv towers. She got tired of looking and got it below asking price so she "just jumped in". Didn't get any details but I'm guessing around $650/sqft.

Things that make a person "tired of looking":

1. not enough listings (before)

2. too many listings (now)?

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paulb. Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 6:04 pm 102

@Chilled:

Kite is superboomtime etc.

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 6:04 pm 103

http://www.pensionsbc.ca/

Then the obvious conclusion is The more affluent safe renters need to be subsidized by 25%, and the normal un affluent wage earner? This city is well on it’s way to becoming bankrupt!

(link to Mish)

The US municipal cases you are citing are irrelevant to BC because:

1. BC municipal pensions are regulated by the BC government (i.e. Gordo), not individual municipalities, are funded by capital, and are an obligation of the province.

2. A very large amount of municipal, and other defined benefit pensions (public and private sector) in the US is for medical insurance. It's not cheap for over 55's.

This is not meant to be a criticism of Mish of course, he is talking about the US not here.

BTW municipal employees are not civil servants.

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Best place on meth Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 6:21 pm 104

@The Mayors Office:

#94,

Oh man, talk about adding insult to injury – take their money after spraying them with poo.

That's almost as bad as what real estate agents do to buyers in this town.

Oh well, at least FecalPaul will enjoy that story.

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inflation is here Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 6:25 pm 105

I dont know if you have noticed but food costs are increasing steadly. I keep very detailed accounting of my expenses and since last year the cost of food for basic stuff has increased approx 12 to 17%. I shop at pricemart regulary. Are you guys seeing the same thing in your area?

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patriotz Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 6:29 pm 106

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-n…

Have you seen the wage increases in recent years for municipal employees?

The main reason municipal employees have received big raises in the last few years is that the municipalities were afraid of strikes close to or during the Olympics. It's yet another cost of that debacle.

Anyway once the provincial economy implodes I think public sector employees are going to be getting slim pickings.

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chip Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 6:30 pm 107

"This to me proves that the myth of rich Asians buying up all our real estate is false. Now I hope all the racists and/or xenophobics will shut the hell up!"

I'm not sure how much silliness you can fit into a single sentence but you gave it a good try. If the 70% refers to the PROVINCE it is obviously going to be a different number for the city we discuss on this blog. This is pretty clear from the fact that Vancouver median prices are close to $900,000, so if you have a bunch of people on $45,000 a year in the market there has to be a very large number earning a lot more to lift the median so high. I'll go out on a limb and say these people must be somewhat rich.

And if you think it is racist to raise the point that money from Asia is impacting prices, I suggest you don't get a job in forex or the government's trade department, because — this may be hard to believe — but occasionally you have to discuss the economic influence of Asia.

I've lived half my life in Asia, my family is mostly Asian, my friends are mostly ethnic Chinese or Indian and you know what, we often discuss the influence of Asian money on the Vancouver market.

But don't worry, we also regularly attend Xenophobes Anonymous and should have this racism under control at some point.

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jesse Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 7:13 pm 108

@patriotz: I agree that some favourable terms in the contracts were to provide stability through the Olympics but the cities and province still needed, I assume, to show a plausible case the outlays were sustainable. Where did they think the money to fund the wage increases would come from?

For municipalities, we have great evidence that they were expecting copious amounts of permit revenue that evaporated in mid '08 and '09. For the province, no doubt they were expecting income and spending to continue unabated.

For both levels of government their budget projections were too optimistic and unrealistic. We are seeing the results only now through explicit and hidden tax hikes as well as wage freezes and headcount reduction. I don't see this trend changing in the next few years. There just isn't enough private investment to fund public spending.

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Eddie Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 7:27 pm 109

@ inflation is here

I've noticed food cost increase, but especially the shrinking packaging. Less and less and they hope we won't notice. Carney ain't noticing that's for sure.

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rp1 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:18 pm 110

@inflation is here: Yeah, the cost of food has gone up quite a lot every year for the past 3 years or so. Especially the price of good fresh fruit. Personally I think it's outrageous how they exclude the cost of food and fuel from the inflation numbers. I realize it can be volatile, but why not use a moving average? People have to eat dammit!

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spitfires Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:22 pm 111

@inflation is here: Prices are up very slightly by my observation, but I have a feeling that this may be due to the increased cost of fuel over the last few years. In other words, nothing too far out of the norm. The price of milk has moved very little if at all over the last 2 years, when it had moved significantly between 6 years ago and 2 years ago. It may be that during that period I lived in Kits, and prices only go up in Kits while the last 2 years I have lived in Richmond, where there is greater competition between Costco, Superstore, Safeway, etc.

Once home prices start falling significantly I think we will see deflation kick in for a while, but what scares me is what they were talking about on CNBC today. The topic was 'should governments around the world just print their way out of this mess?' Scary stuff kiddies!

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Supraboy Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:25 pm 112

aside from real estate bickering, there's a hint that the NHL will raise the salaray cap, that will translate into a raise in ticket prices, raise in beer prices and such increase will translate into more revenues for the government and local businesses. That means there will be more condos put up since everyone gets a bigger piece of the pie.

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AnonymousAA Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:26 pm 113

Is this real estate crash going to start in the condo market? In order to astonish myself I like to check out the maps of condos for sale. Very interesting…for example, in a 5km area of Whalley (which we know is a highly desirable area for people to live-ahem) there are nearly 500 condos for sale. The vast majority of these are in the new developments, Quattro, Infinity etc. I guess we know the people are selling these (I buy three, my husband buy three). But I know many "average" people who have purchased these condos in the last 5 years, many as a "starter home". Bad timing it is-I can't tell you how many times people told me "the only reason I was able to move up to a townhouse was because of the $20k equity we "earned" in our condo-we could NEVER save that much" (like $20k is A LOT of money-yikes!)

It is somewhat unsettling to think of your friends and coworkers losing it all, or best-case, being stuck in a condo in Whalley with little hope of ever moving up. I guess I've just gotten used to living in this bubble town, it's hard to believe that this may finally be IT-though those sad stories will have an effect on all of us, I'm sure.

PS-though I'm not such a bleeding heart I won't be happy to be able to wash the smug smiles off anyone who's purchased real estate in the past 5 years! Back to reality I say-ASAP! REAL ESTATE DOESN'T ALWAYS GO UP-AND SOMETIMES EVEN GOES DOWN!

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Supraboy Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:31 pm 114

@AnonymousAA: What crash are you talking about? It hasn't happened yet? If you're so good in predicting the future, you should be a rich phuck by now.

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Supraboy Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:33 pm 115

You people here sound like the best way to buy a house is to use all cash. There is something called leverage. That's how the smart people get rich while inflation catches up to the bagholders who are holding cash. End result, bears become a bunch a bitter bitches.

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Paulb ,Van renter,ru Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:34 pm 116

@Jim Bob: Too bad that you are still trolling here,keep on selling your stuff to chinese on rock bottom prices.They are loughing at the sellers since decades on those who sell them their houses on cheap prices.

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Animal Spirit Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:43 pm 117

@Supraboy: 112: you gotta try harder than that one. Even a drunk hockey fan couldn't make sense of those logical leaps. Is nice reading your posts for some good evening comedy though

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Best place on meth Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:48 pm 118

@Supraboy:

Did you know that leverage also works in reverse?

Do you know what happens to people who experience that kind of leverage?

Are you old enough to have seen how it works in the real world?

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CanuckDownUnder Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:52 pm 119

Nothing beats the smell of schadenfreude on a Saturday morning so I decided to go check out the following auction:

Turnout was rather light, I did see one card with bidder number 3 on it and I believe that was the high number.

To make this fun let X = winning bid.

Auctioneer opens the floor to bids. Long awkward pause. Now the enticement of having exclusive bargaining rights with the seller. Finally a bid of X-20,000 comes in. Nobody else interested in going any higher.

Agent goes to discuss with the sellers. Agent comes back and informs the bidder (let's not forget the sole bidder) to tell them that there is a firm reserve of X+10,000. New bid of X-10,000 comes in.

Another discussion with the sellers. Agent comes back and informs the bidder that they need to do better to get something done today. Otherwise the sellers are prepared to put the apartment on the market on Monday for X+60,000.

Now I'm guessing that if this auction only generated enough interest for one bid, the chances of any offers coming at anywhere near that price were pretty slim. But still, the sole bidder ups the bid to X. More discussions with the sellers follow, and going once, twice, three times, sold for X!!!

Any guesses on X?

Now don't cheat, but a google search of that address reveals that another unit in the same building sold last July for X-10,000. That unit had the exact same layout but based on the photos a much better kitchen and bathroom which would come close to leveling off the prices. Yet we're supposed to believe that prices have increased 20% in the last year. Hmmm….

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Animal Spirit Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 8:56 pm 120

@Best place on meth: Best place on meth, are you forgetting that SupraKite is probably paid to try to disrupt the blog and make it look intimidating/amateur/one-sided for the new reader (i.e. the questioning potential buyer)

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jesse Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 9:20 pm 121

@inflation is here: You're shopping at Jimmy Pattison owned PriceSmrt and complaining about price increases? Try doing some comparison shopping (and not at Save-on-Foods). My food bill hasn't gone up by that much but I shop elsewhere.

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crashcow Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 9:34 pm 122

Great piece by Eric Sprott today: "A Busted Formula"

"There's nothing wrong with throwing a little money at a problem to make it go away. There's equally nothing wrong with throwing a little borrowed money at a problem to make it disappear, as long as you have the means to pay that borrowed money back. But what happens if you throw a LOT of borrowed money at a problem and the problem doesn’t go away?"

"Bailouts and stimulus provide next to no long-term value. They don’t produce real jobs. They don't improve productivity. They just prolong the precarious leverage game played by the financial sector, and do so at tremendous cost to taxpayers."

"The net impact of the bailouts and stimulus since 2008 has resulted in a $200 billion increase in GDP at the expense of a $2.5 trillion increase in debt. Buying dimes with dollars is a terrible return on investment."

"Banks are at the epicentre of this financial crisis. The reason? Leverage. Commerzbank has the highest leverage of the German banks at 124:1. This means that if their assets drop in value by a mere 0.8%, their equity is effectively wiped out."

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/05_10…

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Keeping an Eye on Th Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 9:36 pm 123

Heard RE Pimp, Michael Leavy on Realty98 radio (wasn’t even the Bill Slut Show) commenting on the recently published reports forecasting 10% drop in house prices.

Much to his relief, he went on to explain, that a correction once in a while is a healthy thing because we wouldn’t want a housing bubble to develop here.

Yeah ok asshole; we sure wouldn’t want prices in Vancouver to detach from fundamentals.

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Jim Bob Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 10:09 pm 124

@Paulb ,Van renter,run buddy run,kites.:

Haha. I'm from Calgary. I sold both my properties to non chinese. The first one I sold in early 2008, and now there is a massive glut in one bedroom apartments and they are selling for a good 30k less now, and will likely go down more in the net year. I sold my Suncor stock options a couple bucks off the peak as well, a couple months before oil and gas prices fell. I would barely even make any money if I were to sell them now. I've had success in the past, and the recent sale of my PR in April will likely prove to be the correct choice as well.

You don't have any money until you sell. I urge you to keep holding on to your properties or buy several more if you are so sure of yourself. But for you to come here and bash bears is only proving that you have low self esteem and need to make yourself feel better by insulting people because your wealth is all paper and you're really not confident in your decision to hold. I am here to view data gather information which will help me make an informed decision. If I see a reason that prices are going up, I will buy, make no doubt about that.

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rp1 Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:17 pm 125

#111 @spitfires: "print their way out of this mess?’"

Bwahaha what an oxymoron. Maybe if they print money and just give it to people. Ever feed too many ducks at the park? First there'd be a swarm of people demanding ever more (worthless) money, and when that is stopped our society would burn itself to the ground. Do I get to shoot people for food? Think of the bright side!

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Anonymous Says:
May 28th, 2010 at 11:48 pm 126

Why is only one of the Brava towers counted in the Condo tracker? The other multi-building developments seem to have all towers included.

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VHB Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 12:06 am 127

18,852 for inventory? Looks like we have to put away the party hats for a week or so.

But, with sales in June almost surely to fall below 3K to a level around 2.5K, the MoI will enter the sweet >6 range. You know what that means? A JUNE SWOON for prices.

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jesse Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 12:14 am 128

@VHB: Why do you think June sales will fall below May's?

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VHB Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 12:22 am 129

@jesse: 1) Looking at average sales over the last 10 years, May is the peak month 2) All of the april 24th / preapproval rush brought buyers forward from the summer to the spring 3) ongoing spread of awareness that IT IS OVER.

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Bob Arctor Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 1:33 am 130

Not sure if anyone's posted this yet:

"Canada won't fall victim to foreclosure wave: Report"
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/fp/Canada…

"Canada’s housing market is expected to cool off this year and next, but isn’t at risk of falling victim to a U.S.-style foreclosure crisis anytime soon, according to a new report by debt-rating firm DBRS Ltd."

"DBRS said in the report that Canada will continue to fare well in comparison to its neighbour to the south when the Canadian housing market corrects itself and interest rates are tightened. That is because lending practices here are much more sound than in the U.S."

Thankfully all those people making 45000/yr are only purchasing homes 3x their income. Our stringent lending practices have made sure of that!

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patriotz Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 2:34 am 131

@Bob Arctor:

DBRS: "That is because lending practices here are much more sound than in the U.S."

Price/rent and price/income as just as inflated in many Canadian markets as they were in the US at peak, therefore lending practices are just as unsound here as they were there.

It's that simple.

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No Longer Looking Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 3:47 am 132

If you live near North Road, grocery shop at Extra Foods. I don't know how or why, but their groceries are the best deal around.

Now back to real estate…

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E Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 7:54 am 133

Construction work in the lower mainland has slowed down in the last few months. I know this because my family income relies on

this industry. I also know many people who work in construction and they are saying the same thing. This can't be good for real estate prices.

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ulsterman Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 8:30 am 134

@AnonymousAA: I think saving 20k IS a lot of money if according to the article 70% of these first-time buyers' combined income is 45k/annum. Even a household earning significantly more than this has trouble avoiding the "month to month" living trap in my opinion. It's very tough saving money and living in the LM.

KWL, I agree with your S Granville rental observations. You may even be referring to the building my mother-in-law manages (Gran & 14, blue building besides Peridot)? She observed recently that in the 13 years she has been managing suites around the area (several buildings), it has never been so hard to rent.

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Happy Renting Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 8:49 am 135

@inflation is here: My monthly costs (food, entertainment, transport) are the same now as they were 4 years ago. I don't keep a detailed record of the breakdown, but I know the total is the same.

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Vansanity Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 9:47 am 136

Nothing scientific to this but I've done it before. On craigslist I checked the number of rentals posted in a single day.

On Friday (may be some duplicates) the total number of rentals listed was around 1,400 on that day. I've checked before and never seen that high of a number.

It makes sense if all the stories about people snatching up investment properties are true. The majority of folks are flocking to real estate as the be all end all of investments. All of them trying to do the exact same thing as the other… just following the herd.

The native indians used to scare herds of buffalo to run off a cliff. Called a "buffalo jump" or "head-smashed-in". I think it's a good analogy for what's to come.

Follow the herd at your own peril.

Anyways, enough doom and gloom, I'll end on a positive note: good luck to those savvy real estate investors and new landlords. May the ground beneath their hooves continue endlessly forever and ever, Amen.

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Best place on meth Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 9:59 am 137

@Vansanity:

>>>I’ll end on a positive note: good luck to those savvy real estate investors and new landlords. May the ground beneath their hooves continue endlessly forever and ever, Amen.<<<

If there was anything I could do to help steer THIS herd over the cliff and to their deaths I'd be all over it.

Then it would be time to feast on the carcasses.

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mohican Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 10:50 am 138

@VHB:

I would agree with you VHB that June will be the turning point in sales volume for 2010. The high sales volumes of the past few months have brought demand forward, mortgage rates have risen, there is a better general acknowledgement of risk out there right now, mortgage approval is more stringent now, prices have risen too far and the average first time buyer is unable to afford payments on even the lowest price units.

Sales may not collapse but they will be trending significantly downward for the remainder of the year.

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Primus Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 11:45 am 139

@mohican: "The high sales volumes of the past few months have brought demand forward"

thats 100% your opinion not based in any fact. I think the terms brought demand forward/back are stupid. Demand is what it is. And it will change based on circumstances

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AnonymousAA Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 12:00 pm 140

@Vansanity:

So many rentals…yes…but so many are basement suites, or those older buildings with no insuite laundry (yes we are being picky!) Plus those spammers at the Rental Network. I've noticed a decrease in quality, reasonably-priced rental listings in the past few months in Burnaby/New West at least, though there are many people trying to rent out 2 beds/2 baths for $1600 to $2200 (too pricey for us, at least). My suspicion is that those amateur landlords who bought in the last 5 years or so are now seeing the light, hence an increase in listings on MLS. Though if these don't sell, I suppose the quality listings may come back in the fall…I hope.

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Globello Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 12:10 pm 141

Pretty hard not to agree with astute observers like VHB abd mohican.

The unprecidented number of price reductions that we have seen recently is another indication that any potential buyers with a lick of common sense will delay their plans until the bottom is in sight.

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sluggo Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 12:15 pm 142

Ya think maybe Primus is a panicked seller trying to lure the last sucker out there?

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Bubble Lad Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 12:17 pm 143

@AnonymousAA:

Technically, basements are "garden suites" in Vancouver (LOL!).

That was the first thing I noticed when I moved here: it's a sort of necessity to have a "garden suite" to pay the mortgage on your bubble priced home (and to have a lowly "renter" crawling with bugs and living in their own filth to look down on).

Only in Vancouver would you treat with contempt the person who's actually paying the bills!

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bridgeman Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 12:37 pm 144

Glad nobody would ever kick people out and boost rent in Vancouver! It's different here!

“It’s pretty interesting that they have all ended up in the same place,” said Andrew Florio, an analyst at Real Capital Analytics, a research firm. “People assumed they could boost revenues by kicking people out and raising rents.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/29/business/29real…

In the absence of large scale rental complexes by one owner, of the magnitude seen in SF and NYC, these are the types of large scale defaults we will see among the amateur landlords in the GVRD. It is one thing to cover the difference between the rent collected and the mortgage owed on a property going up in value, but its totally different when the value of the property is plummeting on a daily basis.

My belief is that the type of person who would kick out good tenants to boost rents is the same type of person who walk away when the property is underwater.

Bend over and grab your ankles boys and girls, she is coming in hard and fast.

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yourlandlord Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 1:59 pm 145

@A Bear: Bear if you think it takes 6 months to evict someone for not paying rent I suggest you try an experiment with this sometime. You don't pay rent on Monday and you will be out on your ass in 10 days if you don't pay by Friday and that's the law of the land.

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Anonymous Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 2:14 pm 146

hey troll 145

you can't evict after 10 days. you can go to arbitration.

It takes a few more months AND a real landlord has to pay a bailliff $2,000 to take possession of the unit, the real landlord also has to pay to put all the occupants stuff in storage.

Call a baillif or the tenancy branch, or actually try being a landlord (it's funny the ignorant wal mart greeters like to weigh in pretending to be landlords when they obviously live in Mums basement)

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jesse Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 2:23 pm 147

@Anonymous: I've seen more than a few contents on the front lawn from an "eviction." No bailiffs involved. The 10 day eviction happens, even if it's technically illegal.

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Disbelief Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 2:49 pm 148

I just checked at Chimpmans blog. He's got a new listing 1915 charming OT 2400sq ft 60×132 ft lot fixed up nicely. $769k in New West overpriced by at least $100k. For $769 you could buy a nice East Van home. I just wanted to share that people are delusional all over. You should be shot and pissed on if you think this represents value in New West for god's sake. Chumpman has done it again.

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space889 Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 3:00 pm 149

@rp1: Actually in US, a regional Fed Reserve economists has come up with a measure of inflation that includes food and fuel and smooth out the volatility using a trimmed mean method. It is proved to be closer to true inflation when measure on an annual basis. However, that eliminates a lot of "policy flexibility" compared to the ability to switch between core and overall inflation numbers depending on which number suits the current political needs.

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yourlandlord Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 3:05 pm 150

@Anonymous: You are required to leave after 10 days. If you don't leave yes you need to go to the RTO and get a order of possession and then to the supreme court to get an order to enforce it and then a bailiff. But you the renting scum who didn't pay are legally required to leave after 10 days and if you don't you are financially responsible for the lost rent, the bailiff costs and everything else. Most professional landlords like myself use "services" that deal with these situations. Try it out sometime I dare you. You don't want to have a conversation with the people we use to deal with these situations trust me.

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Disbelief Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 3:33 pm 151

Spoken like a true gangsta landlord. Any ignorant landlords would use force and physically remove the vermin that refuse to leave will be dealt with by the law. God help you if you try to mitigate loss of income it will end up costing you more in legal fees as you can't get blood from a stone. Ask them to leave and be nice and hopefully they leave if not prepare for the loss the degenerate scum always has the upper hand in court as you are always the big bad landlord. I have had to evict two tenants and was very nice and they left in a timely fashion and all was well. The majority of the time the tenant isn't out to screw you they just fell on hard times. Compassion is the best defense it saves a lot in the long run.

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hombre Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 3:37 pm 152

Hey Pope,

Love your site, and got no problem with some feisty dialogue.

But please, please, PLEASE don't ever let perverts like Johnny Horton highjack it like RET.

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space889 Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 3:41 pm 153

@jesse: Hi just curious with happens with this 10 day evictions? If the tenant came back and saw all his stuff on the front lawn, can he call the cops and force his way back into the suite? Can he sue for damages? Especially if he claims that valuables were lost? I'm just curious what would happen if the landlord did take matters in his own hands and evict like this? thanks

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yourlandlord Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 3:44 pm 154

@Disbelief: Yes by all means be nice but if they don't go as required the gloves come off. I'm not saying use force I'm saying use the threat of force and also explain to them what the next steps are. They are not pleasant steps. It doesn't take long to get the bailiffs in to take their shit and "store it". Hey there's nothing in the law about where the stuff has to be "stored" just that it has to be catlogued and "locked" away some where. Use your imagination. I mean you can follow the law EXACTLY to the letter but it doesn't have to be pleasant and compassionate. Yes by all means work with good tenants that you believe will pay but if they are beligerant you take action and it's legal to do so.

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yourlandlord Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 3:46 pm 155

@space889: You can get fined $5000 for forcefully evicting someone without the enforcement order from the courts. Make no mistake you are supposed to leave on your own in 10 days though. If you have any assets and you don't leave get ready to lose them.

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paulb. Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 4:24 pm 156

18,862 a few listings came in today giving us a shot at 19k for Monday.

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VHB Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 4:28 pm 157

@paulb.: It's not impossible, but it is still a bit of a long shot:

a) sometimes listings expire at the beginning of the last day of the month

b) Mondays have been fairly slow relative to other days of the week.

Not impossible, but not an even-odds bet either.

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A Bear Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 4:30 pm 158

@yourlandlord:

Are you really a landlord? Have you ever dealt with Tenancy Department? I think you are either a troll or a total idiot. Please reading the following:

1.3.6 What can the landlord do if the tenant does not pay rent?A landlord can serve a Notice to End Tenancy under the relevant sections of the Residential Tenancy Act or the Manufactured Home Park Tenancy Act.

A landlord can serve a Notice to End Tenancy if the tenant does not pay the rent. The notice can be served the day following the day the rent is due. After the notice is received, the tenant has five days to either pay the rent in full or dispute the notice.

If the rent is paid in full, the notice is cancelled and the tenancy continues. If the tenant disputes the notice, the tenant must serve the landlord with an Application for Dispute Resolution and a date for the hearing.

If neither is done, the tenant must move out on the tenth day after the notice was received.

A renter can dispute the notice and a telephone hearing will be scheduled at least a couple of months away. The officer will issue a resolution siding with the landlord (off course). Then the renter can appeal the resolution to delay for another month or two. A renter can even start a new hearing on any reason such as no reparement for something, loss due to damage of a fridge. After the final resolution, the lanlord has to go to court to get the order, then pay the bailiff to do the eviction.

At any time, if the lanlord threaton the renter, a policeman will be called rightaway and an court restraint order can be applied so the lanlord can not even get close to the property. Not to mention if you really piss off the renter, how much damage he can do to your property. If the renter flood the unit in a condomium, the damage easily goes up to $50K to $100K. Of course you can sue him in the civil court but for what? How much blood you can get from a stone?

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"A-sharp" Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 4:48 pm 159

I am a renter.

IMO, the RTA is skewed heavily in favor of the tenant. I've always been a "handshake" kind of guy, and my landlord and I are on a verbal agreement. I woud go out of my way to make things easy for my landlord who is a reasonable and friendly guy (found condo on craigslist), who got stuck with a new condo he could not flip.

I feel for him, and voluntarily sent him more cheques for next year at a $20 per month higher amount than what we had originally agreed on. Merry Christmas.

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patriotz Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 4:53 pm 160

@“A-sharp” Accountant:

IMO, the RTA is skewed heavily in favor of the tenant.

Well then, landlords can simply pay a lower price to increase the rental yield to compensate for the tenant risk.

Right?

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patriotz' No. 1 Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 5:03 pm 161

Why is it that whenever patriotz comments, he(or she) always makes so much sense?

He is definitely one of the most, if not the most, logical, rational and level-headed posters on this board.

Just wanted to thank him for always making sense.

Patriotz' No. 1 fan

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"A-sharp" Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 5:10 pm 162

@patriotz:

so true patriotz,

In a market that allocated capital efficiently…But therein lies the problem, and why most of us are here discussing real estate on this board.

I can guarantee you that "regulatory" risk is not priced into my landlord's (GIC level) current rental yield…which is why I feel for the guy.

Also agree that Patriotz ahem* *freako* is one of my favorite posters. I still owe that guy a beer.

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paulb. Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 5:24 pm 163

@VHB:

For sure, it's not like it matters anymore anyways. This crash will be historic.

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yourlandlord Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 6:02 pm 164

@A Bear: I am really a landlord yes and I have evicted a tenant or two for not paying rent. The RTO is pretty good and they do not always side with the tenant. It's pretty fair legislation really and the RTO is very reasonable. Anyway whenever I've evicted tenants I serve them the notice, and written notice that I'll be inspecting the premises every day at 9 am for the following ten days. They all left on their own and no damage was done other than not cleaning up.

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patriotz Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 6:14 pm 165

@“A-sharp” Accountant:

Do you really think I would argue with myself:

http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2007/11/pric…

But really, I did learn a lot from the guy.

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Anonymous Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 7:21 pm 166

Patriotz, thanks for being wrong for at least five years. Poverty likes company.

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Anonymous Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 7:42 pm 167

"thanks for being wrong for at least five years"

let me see… would i rather be wrong for 5 years or would i rather be wrong for 40 years? hmmm…. tough choice

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Prca Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 8:21 pm 168

@yourlandlord:

Listen motherfucker, no matter what kind of people you might have around to provide you with their "service" I'll know where you live and you won't be happy to see me knocking on your door.

Now get the fuck out of this blog, you are a cunt.

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Disbelief Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 8:34 pm 169

Urlandlord
You were lucky you had compliant tenants like it or not they have more rights than you and if they can't pay their rent little to go after. If they wanted to they can put you out of pocket and if you threaten or do something would get sued. They would have every right to do it and you would lose period , I know you want to have the upper hand but you don't.

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Jim Bob Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 8:49 pm 170

@yourlandlord:

Then it appears you have been lucky. If your tenants were advanced rent dodgers, they would have disputed the notice and caused you a lot of grief. So going back to your point about being able to kick anyone out in 10 days, yeah not so much.

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Jim Bob Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 8:56 pm 171

It's pretty common knowledge that tenants have more rights than landlords. It was for me when I was a landlord and also managing my parents properties. I guess you must feel pretty dumb for having such chump name like "your landlord" and not actually know what's going on. It's unfortunate you aren't my landlord, as I would have disputed your notice and put you in jail for hiring "services" just because you are a condescending twat.

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squidly77 Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 9:10 pm 172

Peter Schiff called it right

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Run Buddy Run Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 9:31 pm 173

R.E.BEAR 1 "I am here to view data gather information which will help me make an informed decision."@Jim Bob:

R.E.BEAR 2 "prices have risen too far "@mohican:

Hey Bob if your money is paper money just give it to some one in need that way you can understand the power of papers.

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jesse Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 9:54 pm 174

@space889: Yes tenant has recourse because proper procedure wasn't followed. It's actually exceedingly rare to have this happen. With the case I saw the tenant got back in by paying up.

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Chilled Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 10:11 pm 175

This one has to take the cake. For $500/mth on a share of the utilities you can have the pleasure of living in these fools attic.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1766379…

Next, rent the doghouse out to students?

LOL!!!!!

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jesse Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 10:14 pm 176

@Jim Bob: "It’s pretty common knowledge that tenants have more rights than landlords."

Heh. All landlords *should* know the deal when they get into the business in the first place. That some try to shirk the law because they think the rights are "unfair" deserves punishment. It's not the tenant's fault he has rights.

Renting out property has risks, including some tenants ignoring landlords' rights and taking full advantage of their own rights. This is why low rental yields like in Vancouver, or in many other North American cities for that matter, will only lead to pain.

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t Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 10:28 pm 177

I don't know what other posters here do for a living, but it seams to me that majority of the people on this site think that civil service workers get handed the moon on their paychecks…I know that my wages are acceptable for my profession, but they are by no means greater than they would be if I worked for a private sector company.

FYI there are several companies in the lower mainland that pay better. Furthermore, when Gordon Campbell came into power, he repealed our wages by 15%, a deduction that has never been replaced to our wages over the years. BTW, our new contract just out two months ago did not include a wage increase, and to top it off, they have taken away two days of holidays from our benefits which is equivalent to a decrease in wages because we will now have to work those two extra days. If I leave Vancouver I can easily make more money.

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Chilled Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 10:32 pm 178

@t:

You're right. I quit a public service job at the end of last year and make 25K more in the private sector doing the same work.

Best part? No more incessant, meaningless bull shit. The nimrods in the public sector creating a poisoned work environment get flushed out pretty fast in private business.

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patrick_saint Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 11:00 pm 179

This ones for you Jim Bob

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64R4Y520100…

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jesse Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 11:07 pm 180

@t: I have absolutely no problem with wages being in-line with the private sector assuming benefits, perks, and job stability are factored in.

We know the median wages in Vancouver are roughly tracking inflation. Your employers — taxpayers — may be running out of money to pay you. If you were in the private sector, what would you do in such a situation? I ask it as an honest question.

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Chilled Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 11:30 pm 181

You're comparing apples to oranges and thus asking a very ambiguous question. The Public sector is meant to provide taxpayers with services not possibly supported by a free enterprise business model. Think BC Ferries for example.

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jesse Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 11:41 pm 182

Here is a wonderful thread on Realestatetalks. I don't know if this guy's for real or not.

I have been reading this site for 2 years now, there are lots of smart brains here. I really appreciate your input here. I am about to make an offer on this condo unit

[# 402 1288 ALBERNI ST, the Pallisades, MLS V817941]

…

What concerns me with this deal is that with today's purchase price I will be likely running into negative cash flow

…

A valid concern. He then posts today:

My offer is officially accepted at $490,000. I will have a week to remove subjects. Next week I will talk to seller's banker as well as my mortgage brooker to find out monthly figure. I did some calculation today, looks like I will be paying $2600-$3200 per month to carry the unit (nothing down, all borrowed money), very likely close to $2800 per month. Currently rent is $2750

This guy has to be a troll; no way anyone would be that stupid and offer that price. It certainly is fun to think it's true though!

Oh by the way, three international students are supposedly renting it.

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jesse Says:
May 29th, 2010 at 11:48 pm 183

@Chilled: "The Public sector is meant to provide taxpayers with services not possibly supported by a free enterprise business model"

The City needs to balance its books just as much as a private company. My question still stands: what does the City do when its tax base starts running out of money to fund increasing costs?

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Anonymous Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 3:18 am 184

@183 He mentioned that he is self-employed in marketing & advertising here: http://tinyurl.com/2cfocvo

His principal home has a mortgage, but is covered by rents from basement suite. He paid 25% downpament (equity taken from his principal home) on his revenue property purchased in 2004 for high $300s.
http://tinyurl.com/2acffbn

Now he says his principal home has a net equity of $1.2M.

So it appears he has enough equity to cover the purchase of $490k condo.
http://tinyurl.com/2c2up89

I could be wrong. I'm no math whiz.

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patriotz Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 3:54 am 185

My question still stands: what does the City do when its tax base starts running out of money to fund increasing costs?

Property taxes in Vancouver as a % of rental value (the true economic value of RE, which is what matters) are among the lowest in North America. So the answer is that it can simply raise taxes. Property prices would adjust downward to reflect this, but such adjustment would be small compared to the bust we're headed for.

That some individual owners might not be able to handle the increased taxes is irrelevant. The property would still have real economic value (net of taxes) and someone would be willing to buy it who would be able to pay them.

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snivelingserpent Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:52 am 186

I'm a professional BC government employee long time reader first time poster and let me tell you we work very hard for the money. I work for a department that's studying the revenue neutrality of the carbon tax and it's environmental impact and it's very hard work. We'll probably never see a raise and about the only perk is the flex days and pension plan. I just got my pension plan statement and it looks like I'll be 50 before I can retire!

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 8:52 am 187

I was doing some mls searches in Toronto proper this morning after a discussion at a dinner party last night. Even I am in shock about how reasonable these prices seem. I would reckon less than 1/2 Vancouver prices for a comparable home.

Funny part is the people from Toronto think their prices are way overblown.

SHEESH!

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Happy Renting Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:02 am 188

@snivelingserpent: Retire at 50! I envy you. I've always worked in the private sector, usually for less than average wages, and I won't be able to retire until 51!

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Strataman Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:07 am 189

@snivelingserpent: What? Oh you mean you won't have to turn up at work after 50! Had me worried! Most hard working civil servants retire the day they get the job!

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Anonymous Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:15 am 190

@snivelingserpent: BS on the work situation. You are trolling.

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joycer Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:20 am 191

And the (2008) trend continues…
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
Well it may not be the same, the gap is getting wider and rates are going up tomorrow… come on Mark do the right thing!

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Absinthe Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:29 am 192

@jesse: 193 hits on the search "Alberni" on Craigslist. He's got some competition. *g*

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Anonymous Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:43 am 193

@joycer:

Notification from agent shill,

"Listings are up from the dramatic lows of earlier in the year. It is still not too late to sell but you need a Realtor who can be more strategic in their approach."

It's not too late to sell!!!! Looks like Will has changed his market outlook.

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blackdeathsquad Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:45 am 194

The problem with Toronto is the lack of jobs and rich immigrants that we have here. Pretty hard to find a job in Toronto that pays anything like the pay here. Also Toronto is not really and international world class city like Vancouver is.

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:47 am 195

@blackdeathsquad: sarcasm…

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BC sucks Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:51 am 196

Government job is so unfair, my friend works for a charity organization founded by Law society of BC with starting wage 50k 2 years ago. The government increased their annual commitment to twice of what they used to have and because of the that board of directors increased his wage to 75k to 'justify' the extra funding. He and his wife bought a 2 beds in Yaletown last year for $470k because we as tax payers are paying them $120K ANNUALLY from tax. They keep telling me its affordable to own a place in Yaletown… WTF, if my boss pay me $120k of course I would not hesitate to buy one too

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Oh Canada Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:53 am 197

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…

Vancouver is closer to China, so it should worth more

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Best place on meth Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:01 am 198

@Anonymous:

>>>It is still not too late to sell but you need a Realtor who can be more strategic in their approach.<<<

A multi-faceted strategy of price drops, grovelling and prayer should do it.

That's why you need a REALTOR®, to find just the right combination of the 3.

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VRENGD Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:07 am 199

"If you were in the private sector, what would you do in such a situation? I ask it as an honest question."

Easy question. If you were in the prvate sector, your employer would carry on recklessly untill bankruptcy and crisis loomed. They the employer would arrange a governmennt bailout so that no tough decisions had to be made.

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VRENGD Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:12 am 200

Public sector workers never participate in a boom economy like their private counterparts (via bonuses, profit sharing, stock options, etc.).

Yet, when private sector excesses cause a recession, it is the public sector that gets screwed with wage freezes, cuts, promotion freezes because such moves are good politics.

In summary, if the economy is good, you get not part of it. When the economy is bad, you get less.

Why do public sector workers put up with this? Because the preceived stability of the job and the pension. The latter is now clearly at risk because public opionion is growing against it.

Public sector workers are going to get a raw deal. Better to go private where you can do no wrong and benefit from taxpayer funded bailouts.

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Jeff Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:13 am 201

Toronto is more expensive than Vancouver considering what you get… 1200 sqft, 100 yr old houses, on 2000 sqft semi-detached lots, in working class neighbourhoods… now sell with multiple offers in the $750k range… don't be fooled by the $550k asking prices. Areas like Leaside can't be touched under $1Million. Leaside again has small old semi-detached houses on small 2000 sqft lots. Rosedale starts at $2Million for again small old houses on small lots.

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VRENGD Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:17 am 202

As for public sector workers making more, I know several crown lawyers. They may 50% LESS than their private counterparts. When their private counterparts start making partner, the crown lawyers will be making 70% less.

Some of the income disparity is tollerated because of the public pension but if those are abolished, no one in their right mind woulc choose to be a crown lawyer.

What then? Only the worst candidates would do the job, leading to third-world quality law and order.

However the most likely scenario is this: the government can't hire enought lawyers. Then they contract out everying to the private sector and pay private sector rates, which are 50% to 70% higher than what they pay their staff lawyers.

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Happy Renting Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:23 am 203

@BC sucks: The Law Society of BC is not the government. They do not receive any of our tax dollars.

It is a private society funded and operated by lawyers for lawyers.

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patriotz Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:26 am 204

@Jeff:

Rosedale starts at $2Million for again small old houses on small lots.

Does it now? Here's what $1.5 Million gets you Old Rosedale, walking distance to Yorkville, Queen's Park, etc. This neighbourhood has the highest incomes in all of Canada. If you go farther north you can buy for under a million (still in Rosedale).

Isn't the web great?

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blackdeathsquad Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:29 am 205

@VRENGD: Not really dude. Regular joe lawyers only make in the 80k range which is inline with crown attorneys. Only the good hot shot guys make more than that. I'm a computer programmer with only 2 years of school and make 100k and I don't have to deal with scum everyday. Who has the better job? I also wear jeans to work btw.

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blackdeathsquad Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:31 am 206

@patriotz: Pfffft what a crack shack

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Bar Stool Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:35 am 207

@VRENGD: Not really dude. Regular joe lawyers only make in the 80k range which is inline with crown attorneys. Only the good hot shot guys make more than that. I’m a computer programmer with only 2 years of school and make 100k and I don’t have to deal with scum everyday. Who has the better job? I also wear jeans to work btw. …..

Hey man, your high school guidance councilor should have given you better advice on real world salaries. And, next Wednesday, when you programming skills are outdated and no longer required, I’ll be glad I stuck with L school. Later dude! Much.

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blackdeathsquad Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:40 am 208

@Bar Stool: You're an idiot. A good friend of mine is an attorney and so I know first hand about this. He regrets ever getting into law because the pay sucks unless you make it high up in a firm.

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:47 am 209

@blackdeathsquad: "Toronto is not really and international world class city like Vancouver is."

Are you for real????

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:57 am 210

http://www.mls.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId…

Yes, Leaside is a hot area right now, and hence higher priced than some neighbourhoods. (Probably overpriced) Lots of finanical industry types living there. But that is garbage about $1mill getting you a semi-detached. BTW, I LIKE older houses. Not everything needs to be demolished and turned into a brand new shiny pink palace!

Now think really hard what $1mill gets you in Vancouver proper…

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Best place on meth Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 11:10 am 211

@girlbear:

$1 million in Vancouver? Let's see now….

http://www.mls.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId…

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 11:13 am 212

@Best place on meth: Perfect example.

Case closed.

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specuskeptic Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 11:36 am 213

Please don't feed blackdeathtroll.

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realpaul Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 11:50 am 214

#105 ISH, Normally when you point outhese obvious facts you'll have various regulars settheir hair on fire and argue against any notion that inflation exists. This leads to the conclusion that we have a plethora of civil service trolls on during the week who mod down anything that exposes the truth about these issues. Try posting science facts that em-bare-ass the lickspittles at city hall, unions, special intrests and the generally PC all fucked up during the week. The board lights up like a gong show.

I see you've noticed prices going up in your area at 16 to 17% and have been taking notes. You're the type of person who represents a dangerous segment of society….the thinkers. See the only way that people like Vision Vancouver and Gordon Campbell can stay ahead of the game is to advertise ahead of the facts and suggest to the 'heads up anal' crowd that what they is is actually false and that what they're told is in fact correct.

My read is higher than yours, milk for example has risen 40% in the past year, bread 42%, ketchup 100%, cheese 31%, meat 70%. The net incrrease on my property tax statement is up 32% yoy. Sure some say that I should be happy my house value went up an additional 21% last year and that I shouldn't complain about giving the government increases for sewer, fire, schools and police ( are they fucking nutz!!) but in fact the inflato scam is just a diversion for the politicians not to have increased direct taxes in the run up to elections soon to come. If my grocery bill and the general cost of living is going up faster than the increases in my capital, it means I'm actually getting poorer not richer and the government has found a way to increase revenue on the back of the citizens savings. Not cool. But….if those people out there think that the atmosphere up their asshole is more comfortable than reality what can we say. Sooner or later the shit WILL hit the fan and we'll all be the worse for it.

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VRENGD Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 11:57 am 215

And next year you'll be outsourced to India. Enjoy it while you can.

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bubbly Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 12:17 pm 216

Another article about canadian housing bubble by Mish: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/0…

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Sold2Soon Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 1:01 pm 217

All that's been discussed here regarding bubbles was convincingly stated by Garth Turner on the Money and Wealth Show today (CHEK 6 12:30 pm). He pointed to a 30% drop, which according to the commentator was consistent with the 20-40% drop that Garth had predicted in an earlier show.

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blackdeathsquad Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 1:49 pm 218

@VRENGD: The problem is indians are really really crappy developers and so the outsourcing thing is pretty much over. They make great call center and telemarketers though. My firm has been hired many many times over the last few years to rescue projects that indian outsources have screwed up.

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Jeff Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 1:49 pm 219

Interesting how Vancouver was built with 4500 sqft and larger lots while Toronto was built with 1900-2500 sqft lots.. I guess they never thought Vancouver was ever going to amount to a real city.

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Jeff Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 1:53 pm 220

patriotz –

I like how Rosedale "has the highest incomes in all of Canada" according to you, yet the house example you give is on a 2500 sqft lot. Find me one on a 4500 sqft lot, please, I don't know how to use the internet as well as you

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 1:58 pm 221

@Jeff: Actually, in the examples Meth and I gave comparing a $1mill property in TO vs Van the lot size on the TO property was approx 800 sq ft bigger.

And the TO property is in a better neighbourhood than the house Meth found in Van.

About equal distance to DT core.

Just saying.

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 2:14 pm 222

But, yes Jeff you are correct in one way. Comparing Rosedale to lower Shaugnessy, the lot sizes do tend to be larger in Vancouver. Toronto – older, denser city. To be expected. So in those pricier neighbourhoods you are likely not getting a massive lot in TO unless you pay a lot more.

But as per the more middle-upper class neighbourhoods, the lot sizes even out between the 2 cities. The standard 33 x 120ish you see in most of Kits and West Point Grey is generally smaller than what you would see in TO counterpart neighbourhoods.

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jesse Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 2:57 pm 223

@VRENGD: "Easy question. If you were in the prvate sector, your employer would carry on recklessly untill bankruptcy and crisis loomed."

I would expect a better answer than that. Do you really think most private sector companies are run like this? Give me a break.

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jesse Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 3:12 pm 224

I tend to agree that higher taxes to fund municipal activities is overdue — the provincial government seems less willing to help subsidize civic functions — but realistically you have to convince the public not to elect a council that is hellbent on keeping taxes in check. I thought the last round of property tax hikes had poorly advertised and explained justifications.

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VRENGD Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 4:20 pm 225

http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/

It is a fact that many of the largest companies in the world are run like that. Seen the news lately?

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blackdeathsquad Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 10:26 am 226

@VRENGD: That only works if you’re a central canadian mouth breather since your vote is worth way more. Just look at the forest industry in BC. The Quebec lumber “industry” gets bail outs all the time but BC never does. Bailouts shouldn’t be done at all of course but hey Canada’s a socialist country and that’s what socialists do.

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crashcow Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 5:44 pm 227

Field Report from UBC Condo Projects

May 29, 2010

by Crashcow

I woke up this morning with a massive hangover. Wow, what a 40% sales-to-list party that was! But with today being Alumni Weekend, I decided to check out my Alma Mater and tour the empire of new condos she's been feverishly building.

Even though we're now essentially in June, the day was cold, wet and wintery. But as any Vancouverite will tell you, this only a small sacrifice to live in the Best Place on Earth. A minor inconvenience, if you will.

As I entered into UBC and drove passed some new buildings, I became confused. My navigation sense turned dismal. If you haven’t visited UBC in over 5 years, chances are you will not recognize this place either. Entire communities the size of the Olympic Village have recently been built multiple times over. According to U-Town, there are now eight emerging communities, with Wesbrook Village being the largest. Talk about inventory glut.

The Sales office at Wesbrook Village sat empty. Balloons walloped in the wind. I saw no people and no amenities, except for a Save-on-Foods. The villages felt like ghost towns; it was quite the sobering contrast to Rennie’s sunny and euphoric circus at the Olympic Village. But then we ran into a friend that I hadn’t seen in ages. It turned out she was living in one of these new communities and had an interesting story.

She is a first-time buyer that entered the market a few months ago during the climax of the buying frenzy. After getting bruised several times in bidding wars, she toughened up to outbid the hounds. Victory was hers, as were the keys to a new UBC condo for over $600/sq.ft on leased land. The conversation was very insightful:

Me: "What shaped your decision to buy in UBC?"

Her: "I bought this condo as an investment. UBC is quickly becoming a world-class university and is increasing its student capacity. There is always going to be strong housing demand from students and families. My goal now is to build a portfolio with as many condos as possible. You should really take this opportunity to own here."

Me: "Actually, I’m really enjoying renting at the moment. I did own a condo, but then sold it in fall of '07."

This comment stirred a puzzled reaction in her.

Her: "Why? Do you think the market is going to…"

For some reason, she had trouble finding the next word. Any one of "drop", "fall", "correct", "tank" or "crash" would have done just fine. Instead, she silently motioned a dive with her hand. This was clearly a fragile person.

It utterly amazes me that someone with higher education would consider leveraging themselves to the moon in order to snap up as many condos as possible without even seriously considering a drop in prices. It's no surprise to us that politicians, real estate agents, brokers, bankers and developers have failed us. But it's sad that our academic institutions have not equipped us with the most basic of financial street smarts.

I look forward to The Great Cleansing ahead.

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Boombust Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 6:05 pm 228

"I look forward to The Great Cleansing ahead."

So do I. This "story" should be flushed down the toilet.

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rubberduckie Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 6:21 pm 229

Popped into two open houses today on the west side.

One Realtor was very keen to give us mortgage information, even if we didn't buy the unit. The unit stank of camouflage potpourri. It's been on the market for ages, but when asked, she deflected the question and drew attention to the price reduction.

Another Realtor declared that "June and July are the best time to buy." As though the rhyme made it true!

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Jeff Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 6:48 pm 230

For the record I am a bear..

But why are most people on here idiots, really?

I happen to point out that I think Toronto is more over priced than Vancouver and I get a bunch of people not liking my comments.

If you people think that you get better value in Toronto then why live here? It rains all the time, and when it's not raining it's cloudy.

There are far fewer jobs here.

The real estate market will crash here and take the economy down with it. Don't plan on having a healthy economy in Vancouver when prices collapse. You'll need to be more worried about putting food on the table in a rented apartment than preparing for the big home purchase.

I think in life we all have something to add to the discussion, but after just a week of reading the crap on this site, you guys really do suck!

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junius Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 6:49 pm 231

YOU FOOLS

MOI is over 6

Bulls are idiots.

Go long gold and short silver.

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:03 pm 232

@Jeff:

Part of reason you are getting voted down is statements such as this: "Rosedale starts at $2Million for again small old houses on small lots."

I don't consider this to be a small old house on a small lot…

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…

The street it is on, Rowanwood, is pretty much Rosedale central.

Again, just saying.

But you are correct that there is continual gloomy weather here and not so good jobs. There really is no reason to stay.

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Jeff Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:04 pm 233

junius –

I hope Will took into account the 4 day work week.

I don't think many people were working at full stride last week due to the holiday, I'd expect to see a lot more sales get reported this week. I don't want to, but just being practical.

Besides, one week doesn't give us any real statical measure. Let's see how the month ends.

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ulsterman Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:04 pm 234

@Chilled: The Public sector is meant to provide taxpayers with services not possibly supported by a free enterprise business model. Think BC Ferries for example

I agree with you about the public sector's role, just not your BC Ferries example. In the UK private companies (http://www.ferries.co.uk/ferry_companies.html) successfully provide ferry services on modern, fast ships at competitive prices (because there's more than one company of course)AND they don't charge extra to reserve. Making an online reservation is just expected.

Now if i could just get the BC government out of the beer and wine retailing business and mandatory car/motorcycle insurance business i'd be much happier.

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LY Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:06 pm 235

I am moving to Toronto this July because housing is cheaper, more job opportunities and better schools. The positive outweighs the negative called weather. A realtor is sending me listings in Markham, Richmond Hill and upper North york. House prices in the Markham, Richmond Hill suburb is definitely cheaper than Burnaby, Richmond suburb here and twice the lot size for towhhouses, semi-detached. I will wait later this year before I made my purchase. Let housing price crash first. The faster the better since my cash is earning virtually nothing in the bank.

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Best place on meth Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:08 pm 236

Assaulting Bob "Lying Douchebag" Rennie never gets old.

I'm just looking at his latest piece of crap that violated my mailbox this past week. It's for 2300 Kingsway.

It's seems that the skinny little fucker thinks he's such a genius marketer that his slogans need not make the tiniest bit of sense anymore.

"WHEN YOU SAY LOCATION, IT'S VANCOUVER.

WE HAVE ALWAYS UNDERSTOOD THIS AND NOW

THE WORLD UNDERSTANDS IT TOO."

Hey Rennie, just die already.

http://www.2300kingsway.com/

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Kid Fynnland Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:26 pm 237

Ly: toronto weather a big negative? Have you looked outside all week?

The weather here sux. If anyone thinks this is the BPOE then they have never actually travelled anywhere.

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Anonymous Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:28 pm 238

@Jeff:

Jeff, you must agree with the groupthink at all times – otherwise you'll get modded down, even if your post is factually correct.

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Anonymous Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:35 pm 239

@ulsterman:

"AND they don’t charge extra to reserve. Making an online reservation is just expected."

Of course it's expected – it's the 21st century.

Another example – order tickets online, and print them yourself? That'll cost you $7, for saving the company from needing to pay the overhead of a physical box office and mailing real tickets to you. How's that work?

In the UK companies see the value of being able to scale down their physical operations and migrate to online services, and they pass these cost savings onto the consumer. In Canada they call it a "convenience charge" and, as far as I can tell, you all just bend over and take it.

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Anonymous Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:37 pm 240

@Jeff:

"Besides, one week doesn’t give us any real statical measure"

Try telling that to those here who obsess over the daily numbers.

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jaywo99 Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:46 pm 241

@Best place on meth:

188 units under $300K…. great deal considering it includes a Supersonic Jet. Says 1 minute away from Gastown and Chinatown.

http://www.2300kingsway.com/location.html

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 7:57 pm 242

Interesting to note: I think for the first weekend ever, the number of Bull comments might be almost even with the number of Bear comments on this blog.

Now, as a confident Bull, why would I even think to seek out a bearish blog to post on. Pretty sure it would not even cross my mind.

Careful Bull, your slip is showing…

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jesse Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 8:17 pm 243

@LY: "I am moving to Toronto this July because housing is cheaper, more job opportunities and better schools."

The work environment is quite different in Toronto for the most part. I think people accept lower salaries in Vancouver for a reason.

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Veej Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 8:44 pm 244

Junius,

Long gold and short silver? That is horrible advice. Name a time that gold went up and silver did not follow in the last 12 years. Silver has more upside than gold. That is like being long DOW and short S+P.

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Absinthe Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 8:48 pm 245

@Jeff: Coming from Ontario, I wouldn't put down those 100 year old houses as having less value than the plywood and hope new-build boom boxes out here. As long as you inspect for major deficiencies, they're usually pretty solid little homes.

The average family home in TO is at ridiculous price levels; the average family home here is at slightly higher ridiculous price levels. But TO was affordable for much longer.

I think that's why we're not really into Toronto's woes – when it comes to housing foolishness, TO's the new kid busting onto the scene. And hey, given Vancouver's rivalry with TO, we don't want to give away our First Prize Crown for Insanity to our dear sibling to the East – because we do housing crazy rather spectacularly, and it's bloody time we got NOTICED. *g*.

Considering how many of my TO friends have been able to buy sensibly on comparable salaries before the last year or so, I maintain that we crazy better.

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 8:58 pm 246

@jesse: Jesse, I respectfully disagree. In my industry, and a few others friends are in, the gig is a lot tougher here. Having to be up at the crack of dawn in order to deal with eastern clients, and then staying in the office until standard westcoast hours. My Toronto colleagues DO NOT pull the hours per day that I do.

Plus, in my industry for sure one is at a disadvantage being so far from where the money base is.

I think the lower wages are more to do with the fact that we are on the periphery rather than that we accept lower wages due to lifestyle advantages.

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bridgeman Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:01 pm 247

"The weather here sux. If anyone thinks this is the BPOE then they have never actually travelled anywhere."

Does BPOE stand for Best Place On Earth or Big Pile Of Excrement?

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Absinthe Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:16 pm 248

@jesse: Dunno what industry you're in, and it's probably industry specific (financial might be crazier in TO?) – but I haven't found workspaces in Van to be terribly laid back. We're both tech sector and work life balance seems what you get when you decide to employ yourself.

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doubladay Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:18 pm 249

The role of the public sector is to provide services at minimal efficiency, and completely obscure or distort any market pricing for the service, which may or not be needed in the first place.

The cost of these services is stripped from the most productive in the private sector, weakening the incentive for further production and reducing market-directed private investment.

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squidly77 Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:19 pm 250

The rise of the machines

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jesse Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:26 pm 251

@girlbear: "I think the lower wages are more to do with the fact that we are on the periphery "

So why do Vancouverites accept lower wages when salaries in other cities are higher? My experience is quite the opposite to yours. In my profession, hours in Toronto are longer but the wages are higher.

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Chilled Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:37 pm 252

@Absinthe:

Absinthe Says:

May 30th, 2010 at 9:16 pm

@jesse: Dunno what industry you’re in, and it’s probably industry specific (financial might be crazier in TO?) – but I haven’t found workspaces in Van to be terribly laid back. We’re both tech sector and work life balance seems what you get when you decide to employ yourself.

+++++++++++++++++++

A person at work may choose to be a prick, anywhere. The difference between TO and Vancouver is when confronted in TO, the issue is usually dealt with, over, or at minimum, not kept festering in perpetuity. In Vancouver, the aggressor will quickly dive into a shell of political correctness leaving those attacked appearing like the aggressor!!!! In Vancouver you really have to fear those appearing to be helpful, friendly and 'team' players. In TO, you know who your enemies are.

Big generalization, I know, but that has been my experience. I don't care what you do, there is definately less opportunity in BC for honest career minded individuals vs TO.

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girlbear Says:
May 30th, 2010 at 9:38 pm 253