Olympic Village Field Report
Crashcow posted this comment over the weekend: a field report on the opening sale of the very lightly used Millennium Water Olympic Village condos:
Field Report of Millennium Water
May 15, 10
I woke up this morning with a massive hangover. Wow, what an 18K party that was! But with the weather so nice today, I decided to checkout my first open house in a long time to get a feel for what’s happening in the trenches. And not just any open house, an entire open village. Little did I know how much of a treat it would end up being.
On the way to Millennium Water, I passed by an abnormal quantity of For Sale signs. I kept asking myself how Rennie is going to pull off a 474 condo sale when inventory is exploding and sales are faltering. But soon after I walked into the gates of the Olympic Village, I knew I had stepped into a dream world of magic.
If Vancouver ever had a ground zero for Irrational Exuberance, Millennium Water is it. And if Bob Rennie is ever the King of anything, it’s hype. The man has carefully orchestrated a circus of clowns, bands, tents, treasure hunts and euphoria. When bands are cheering on lined up speculators and the King himself is handing everyone cookies, what is being witnessed is the last “hurrah” of a heavily inflated market.
I lined up to view a condo and couldn’t help but overhearing what the herd was chanting. One of my favourites was, “I don’t know if I like this area, but I love the wave pattern on the wall.”
I followed the crowd into a staged 1 bed, 2-den condo at slightly over 1,000 sq. feet. I overheard some lady asking an agent the price and he replied with a straight face:
“One-point-three-million.”
The lady’s jaw dropped, she shook her head, and moved on. I couldn’t contain myself and had to keep the conversation going.
- Me: “The miracles of record low interest rates. So that’s roughly $1,200 per sq. ft?”
- Agent: “Yes, but I’m also selling units down the street for $500 per sq. ft”
- Me: “So why, in your opinion, does this place come at a $700,000 premium?”
- Agent: “It’s an opportunity to be a part of this famous community and the proximity to the water.”
- Me: “Not only are you asking for an outrageous premium, you’re doing it at a time when there are over 18,000 units on the market, CHMC rules are tightening and mortgage rates are climbing.”
- Agent: “You should then really consider the units we have listed down the street.”
So I followed the yellow brick road down the street and into another Rennie building called “The Maynard’s Block.” And sure enough, studios were priced at half a million.
Buy now, or be priced out forever.
-Crashcow
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May 17th, 2010 at 6:25 am
- Me: “The miracles of record low interest rates. So that’s roughly $1,200 per sq. ft?”
- Agent: “Yes, but I’m also selling units down the street for $500 per sq. ft”
- Me: “So why, in your opinion, does this place come at a $700,000 premium?”
- Agent: “It’s an opportunity to be a part of this famous community and the proximity to the water.”
- Me: “Not only are you asking for an outrageous premium, you’re doing it at a time when there are over 18,000 units on the market, CHMC rules are tightening and mortgage rates are climbing.”
- Agent: “You should then really consider the units we have listed down the street.”
The agent didn’t follow the script he/she/it was trained to follow. Here are the canned answers:
-Yes, $1200.00 but only for a limited time, we can’t guarantee this price for ever.
-$700,000 is not much of a premium, for distinct world class unique opportunity.
-There may or may not be 18,000 units the world class cities, but there is only one Olympic Village.
May 17th, 2010 at 6:33 am
Rennie if you read this blog, here is some advice:
Stick to the tactics,the script, get the sales ladies to show more leg, but slash the price, and throw in several decades of subsidized financing rates.
May 17th, 2010 at 7:09 am
VCI Mystery index?
May 17th, 2010 at 7:24 am
From news1130 site, they are reporting 36 sales at OV over last 2 days out of 200 available. I think that is a disappointing figure if you are a bull. I think the market is ready to collapse but I thought even the condo king would have blasted out at least double that. This confirms to me that the market is OVER!
http://www.news1130.com/news/l.....ng-quickly
737 units
263 pre-sold
200 put up last weekend
274 left of which some for social housing?
How many pre-sales are up for sale again, assignments?
Thank goodness for Vancouver taxpayer to pay for this disaster.
Truly an epic financial disaster in the making.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:25 am
@Bankerman:
“Rennie figures pent-up demand is to thank for the early surge in sales.”
LMAO! What for the 30 sales?
May 17th, 2010 at 8:36 am
Now I understand how Vancouverites are stretching to support the crazy house prices:
BC businessmen caught smuggling drugs into the US
http://www.cknw.com/Channels/R.....ID=1230712
May 17th, 2010 at 8:48 am
>>>Bob Rennie of Rennie Marketing Systems, the firm responsible for selling the Olympic Village homes and recouping the city’s investment, is confident all of the project’s 474 units will sell, but says it might take time.
“Let’s not kid ourselves: this isn’t a one-month sell out,” he said. “This is finished product. Vancouver is typically a presale market where you’ve got 50 per cent investors and 50 per cent homeowners.”<<<
50% investors?
Not anymore, douchebag.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:48 am
@Bankerman @PaulB (B stands for Bore)
Rennie said he had 36 sales which was DOUBLE what he anticipated. Now you can look at that one of two ways:
1) It was a great success and the man had lower expectations which are much more inline with what the Bears here believe. Still he sold double and that is impressive.
2) It was only 36 units and he will never sell the other 400+… those who bought are idiots.
You all seem to jump on line of thought #2. Did you even go down there? It was a zoo. I wouldn’t be able to be a serious buyer in that mess (too many distractions, noise, people). I’d be heading back on a very quiet weekday when I could visit the exact unit I wanted to buy, with the full attention of the sales service staff.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:51 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LK5Ymn9bp8
May 17th, 2010 at 9:19 am
@No Insight:
Loot at it this way:
If The Condo King only expected to sell 18 out of 472 units at one of the most overhyped places in recent years, what does it say about the market as a whole?
May 17th, 2010 at 9:31 am
@Bankerman:
“274 left of which some for social housing?”
No, the social housing/workforce housing is on top of the 737 market units.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:32 am
@Greenhorn:
Was he wearing Chuck Taylor’s with dress pant’s and a dress shirt?
That right there is the signal folks, the high end market in Van City is dead.
A project that is already build, got world wide exposure and hype can’t sell out? Pathetic.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:35 am
@No Insight: You couldn’t have picked a more apropos name!
May 17th, 2010 at 9:40 am
I think VANOC should give 36 medals to those lucky buyers yesterday – they are the true Olympians. Or is it the ‘Agony of Defeat’?
May 17th, 2010 at 9:40 am
ooooohhh, I’m going to run down there and try get my bid in on a good unit before they are all gone.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:45 am
@ No Insight #8:
.
Or it could be looked at a third way:
.
3) Rather than focus on actual numbers, headlines can be written as “double the expected units sold the opening weekend”.
.
Much easier to put a rosy spin on that bit.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:47 am
MSM today reports: “Canadian home sales slip again” sales are down 2.6%… demand is expected to moderate further, the pace of that moderation is projected to be “measured and orderly.”
“Measured and orderly”??? This is reminiscent of the US’ old story of “soft landing.” We all know how well that ended.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:52 am
NO talk about the protests? Were the protests just media hype? They looked pretty intense on TV.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:56 am
@Rob A.:
They were protesting Rennie’s suit and sneaker combo.
And yes, it was intense.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:57 am
Rosenberg today on Canada RE:
NO HOUSING BUBBLE, EH?
Well, that is the message out of Ottawa.
Don’t buy into that. It was Ottawa’s policies, namely allowing near 100% LTV mortgages insured by the CMHC and 40-year mortgages that triggered the bubble to begin with. (Okay — we’ll call it something else: a giant sud). Home prices have surged to record levels relative to incomes or rents so call it whatever you like.
The just-released existing home sales report showed that resale home sales fell 2.6% MoM in April (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) and are down three of the past four months. On a year-over-year basis sales are up 20% partly due to easy comps but this will slow dramatically in the months ahead. Average prices are running at about 12% YoY, slowing from the 20%+ rates seen a few months ago.
New listings continue to rise – up 0.9% MoM and up nearly 30% from year-ago levels. The inventory of unsold homes moved up to 5.3 months (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) to the highest level in almost a year. This higher inventory build is consistent with what we are seeing in the new housing market, where housing starts having been running above household formation rates for about 7 months in a row. All of a sudden, the inventory landscape is beginning to change and we would expect prices to follow suit. Just in time for the Bank of Canada’s rate-hiking cycle too. If you’re a renter, start licking your chops — this is about to become a buyer’s market (hey — CMHC didn’t boost its reserves against default for no reason).
May 17th, 2010 at 9:59 am
No Bubble: ‘The Giant Canadian Housing Sud’
I like that…
May 17th, 2010 at 10:00 am
Greenhorn: thanks for the work extracting CTV clips for those of us who missed them.
May 17th, 2010 at 10:16 am
Comparative bargain?
May 17th, 2010 at 10:29 am
@Neptune:
Or maybe $1200/sq.ft is a ridiculous price, even when compared to high-end Yaletown & Coal Harbour condos (for which $600-800/sq.ft seems to be today’s market value).
Saying that the market is toast may be a little premature. Don’t forget they’re asking over a million for a one-bed apartment.
May 17th, 2010 at 10:39 am
Paul B,
Are you still able to get info on certain properties? Are you still dabbling in real estate?
May 17th, 2010 at 10:41 am
@Anoymous:
or it is a sign that the pre-sale/speculator market is dead in Vancouver.
Wait for today’s listings. I predict a 453 new listings day.
May 17th, 2010 at 11:02 am
@vreaa:
I think that’s a jab at Alan Greenspan’s remark in 2005 that there was no national housing bubble in the US, just some “froth”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05.....21fed.html
Greenspan was correct in a strict sense that there was no nationwide bubble- as some areas were not overvalued – but of course that made no difference to the national economy when the overvalued areas, which comprised the great majority of the US’s RE valuation and lending, crashed. And the same will apply to Canada.
But the level of denial in Canada has surpassed Greenspan’s – the deniers here aren’t even bothering to use weasel words:
May 17th, 2010 at 11:35 am
@Neptune:
“or it is a sign that the pre-sale/speculator market is dead in Vancouver.”
Speculators would have bought before April 19th, if speculation is not dead now, they are certainly on vacation. The market will be very different by the time they decide to come back.
They must now come up with 20% down and can only apply the rent as income (as opposed to taking it off the monthly mortgage payment) in qualifying for a CMHC insured loan. Here is an example from the CMHC’s own affordability calculator:
To qualify for a 1million dollar loan at 4% for 35 years they would need to come up with $200,000 down and if they get $2500/month in rent (that number has been thrown around on craigslist) they will still need an additional 8500/month in income that is not already used to service any other kind of debt. Oh and that doesn’t include any taxes, strata or utilities. I would imagine that will put the monthly income back over $10,000 after they are factored in. That is income which is not already included for any other debt (credit card, primary residence, etc.).
It’s safe to say that speculators have quite a hill to climb… the top of the hill is a ruled by a monster I like to call NegativeEquitor!
May 17th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
@patriotz: “I think that’s a jab at Alan Greenspan’s remark in 2005 that there was no national housing bubble in the US, just some “froth”.”
And it’s well known that Alan Greenspan does all of his economic reading in the tub.
May 17th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
OTTAWA, May 12 (Reuters) – Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday there does not appear to be a bubble in the country’s housing market and that the level of consumer defaults has not increased in any significant way.
“We watch closely the level of indebtedness of Canadians, particularly in the housing market and there is no evidence of a bubble,” he told reporters.
————————————————
Like the USA, defaults only really began to increase when appreciation stop or slowed to more historical rate levels. As, you could not get more money to pay off your debts by using your home equity as an ATM machine.
If Flaherty is looking at these numbers in defining a bubble or not a bubble then he is either intentionally obscuring the issue (which I believe to be most likely) or not understanding the depth of the problem.
The government knows the problem – they will not admit it to the Canadian public. They need the consumer to spend the nation out of the recession or a least defer a deeper recession until Canada can piggy back on an American recovery.
May 17th, 2010 at 12:37 pm
@Gordon C.:
Or perhaps he’s referring to the WHOLE of Canada, and not the tiny corner of it that you’re familiar with?
May 17th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
Its so funny! Rob Rennie have sold only 36 units during the opening weekend with so much hype and promotions and he can tell the press with a straight face that it was a success. He should find a hole to hide.
May 17th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
@averagejoe:
It is actually success, considering that there is still some dumb money out there to be thrown on a overpriced crap.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
Bank of Canada Qualifying Rate now at 6.10%
http://ow.ly/1M3wg
Those who sow the wind, reap the whirlwind…
May 17th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
Well ANOYMOUS
(good choice of name by the way)
It doesn’t matter if Flaherty is looking locally or nationally, he is looking in the rear view mirror of where Canadians were. The indebtedness shows up as bankruptcy and foreclosures AFTER the market slows – not before. And that doesn’t matter if you live in Belleville, North Battleford or wherever you may be familiar with.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
@Anthony:
“Paul B,
Are you still able to get info on certain properties? Are you still dabbling in real estate?”
If you’re going to as him a question you should at least be polite.
He’s not dabbling, it’s a job. Last I heard he’s still a full time agent, he just doesn’t work (or live) on this coast any more.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
@ Londonernow
Good catch, I laughed when I saw that story in the Globe and Mail this morning….
http://tinyurl.com/29mfx4k
Personally, I figure Fontana and Neary probably needed the dope money for a downpayment on an Olympic Village condo….
May 17th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
@Anoymous:
The point of my post below was that is DOESN’T MATTER if some parts of country are not overvalued, if the most significant markets are. Didn’t you get it? If every major English-speaking city in the country is overvalued – and they now are – you have a bubble in aggregate terms, and you are going to have a significant macroeconomic impact when that bubble bursts.
To try to excuse the nonsense that Flahery et al are peddling on the grounds that some minor markets are not overpriced makes no more sense here than it did in the US. It is intentional deception and doubly contemptible having already seen the results south of the border.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
“We watch closely the level of indebtedness of Canadians, particularly in the housing market and there is no evidence of a bubble,” — I don’t really understand this statement by F. If you wanted to measure a bubble, measuring indebtedness is kind of an indirect and imprecise way to measure no? Shouldn’t he be looking at price to income and price to rent ratios? Debt is an important piece of the puzzle, but the root measure is how people are actually paying.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
Correction….”how MUCH people are actually paying”
May 17th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
@Drachen: I believe Paul is alive and well in North Vancouver! Moved back!
May 17th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
Any inventory #’s.
Do you know how much social housing they could have built for the $170 million they are going to piss away (at least) at OV?
Any city politician that was in favour should NEVER be voted back into office. In fact – that would be a great thread. Major votes by city council with regards to the OV debacle.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:41 pm
coming from the vancouver sun, its truly over
http://www.vancouversun.com/sp.....story.html
May 17th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
New Listings 171
Price Changes 122
Sold Listings 81
May 17th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
Yes I am back but not selling real estate. My guess is it won’t be a great few years to be selling homes.
May 17th, 2010 at 2:46 pm
@PaulBore
You never were a realtor except in license. You couldn’t sell in the best of markets and you certainly can’t sell now. Maybe you forgot that aspect… but keep pumping the bears up! At least you found some net-cred right?
May 17th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Drachen,
Thanks for policing this website. Now, if you had kept up, you would understand that Paul is back in Vancouver and is studying full time. The term dabbling, which according to you is so very rude, was used because he posts inventory numbers. My question, again, addressed to Paul was because I am interested in a property. So if he was interested in making some money on the side, he might be interested in “dabbling” in some real estate.
May 17th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
I’ve been thinking quite a bit about the changing landscape of False Creek on both sides; Olympic Village, Yaletown, etc. It’s all very new, and very densely built, but it’s somewhat different than Coal Harbour, which has also been densely built in the same time period. Yaletown is more exposed to the rental market.
If you search craigslist for Yaletown rentals, there are 1000+ vacancies, although many repeats, some of the “luxury short term furnished” variety. Only 418, many repeats, in Coal Harbour. But by comparison, there are 244 apartments for sale in “False Creek North” and 243 in Coal Harbour, so the real estate markets are about the same.
I wonder whether all those Yaletown hopeful private landlords are going to rush toward the exits en masse at some point, especially if False Creek South (Olympic Village area) continues to flood the market with similar offerings.
It’s all such new inventory: 15 years ago I was attending warehouse raves down there, playing pool at the Automotive, jamming in the mini storage, or dancing at Starfish or Dicks on Dicks or Luvafair – and it’s COMPLETELY changed. So I am fascinated by what will happen there after the pop.
To Yaletown’s detriment: There’s no history there – it’s a lot of new money. The suites are tiny. The trees are tiny; expensive neighbourhoods do tend to feature some deciduous tree canopy. Building moved some of the nightlife along but not all of the … mmm, edgier elements. A draw: Yaletown is somewhat car unfriendly, but is transit and pedestrian friendly. To Yaletown’s benefit: It’s been relatively well planned. There are some great amenities like the Roundhouse and the seawall and a few nicely built parks, and now there’s a Skytrain station.
Will Yaletown be a “new” West End? Up until the bubble switched up the demographics the West End was one of the areas in the city you could find a great deal.
May 17th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
@ The Pope:
I applaud your measures to reduce the signal-to-noise ratio on this site, but don’t you think that having the ‘forclosure’ posts shrink into unreadable oblivion a bit draconian?
.
Is there a way for us readers to disable that feature? There are times that the contrarian posters who frequent this site make some valid-but-unpopular comments/arguments.
.
And as for the obvious trolls… well, they’re good for a quiet chuckle from time to time.
May 17th, 2010 at 3:05 pm
No Insight:
Most of us use fake names on this board, fine.
It’s one thing to keep your identity hidden when you’re shooting the breeze about RE, but it takes a real class act to punch someone below the belt while hiding behind an anonymous handle.
May 17th, 2010 at 3:06 pm
Thanks for asking Anthony. I can point you in the direction of a good Realtor if you like? Email me, or I can email you if you leave me an address.
May 17th, 2010 at 3:11 pm
@Absinthe: You and I must be of a similar age and demographic. I also partied/hung out at all of the places you mentioned. (Hell, we may even know each other.) The city has definitely changed over the last 15 years: I’m still trying to figure out if the net change has been better.
May 17th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
@oneangryslav2:
……. The city has definitely changed over the last 15 years: I’m still trying to figure out if the net change has been better.
——————
It hasn’t! I’ve been here for more that 20 years now, and this city is definitely not as cool as it used to be! Good Greif; we’ve turned into exactly what we always dreaded: Toronto with rain. Don’t believe me? Ask the few dozen that were actually born here.
The older this city gets, the better it used to be!
May 17th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
In recent years, Toronto looks more down-to-earth and more livable than Real Estate obsessed Vancouver.
May 17th, 2010 at 3:54 pm
Man, 36 people were stupid enough to pay roughly double the current inflated market price for a downtown condo? What were they waiting for before, that they have that much money lying around to be wasted on literally the most over-priced real estate ever sold in this city? Are they just huge Olympic fans? I bet you could hire a couple of Olympic athletes to have sex in your new condo for a lot less than the $500,000+ premium being charged by the developer. Heck, you could probably get a couple who didn’t win a medal if you just offered room and board for a few days. You might even have trouble getting them to leave.
May 17th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
I was born in Vancouver and have lived here for over 40 years. I remember many a great party Seafest, Sandcastle competition (white rock) and Expo was a very fond memory. Even the Olympics were fun but way too short of a time for the money. What is it about Vancouver that makes it great. It’s the free medical and the lax drug laws that make this a Mecca for all the vermin of the world to use and abuse. Why not there are no consequences of any real degree. For a law abiding citizen it is really not great. I hated when David Duchovny said Vancouver is an ice cold rainforest. But I think he is right (a member of Mensa). Vancouver is overpriced in so many ways.
May 17th, 2010 at 4:02 pm
Gambling is an addiction, and some die-hard gamblers are still around. Last Saturday was the Grand Opening of Jewel II, where a 1 -bedroom + den (740 sqft) sells for $400k+. A reseller claimed that all 1-bedroom units completely sold off that day and he is looking for a greater fool to take his unit off his hand.
May 17th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
Today I received a junk RE flyer from “Rennie Marketing”.
They are now flogging “Grand Central 2″ in the Coquitlam Centre area.
The first highrise tower is mainly unoccupied, even after 1.5 years. Investors, you know.
At any rate, the “new” tower, which is still a hole in the ground, is quite a bit less per suite…and, they’ll pay any HST to pre-sale buyers!
Must be a tad slow, to goose it up like that.
May 17th, 2010 at 4:25 pm
Bear my hairdresser said he bought 3 condo in millenium water and his friend bought 2. Rich gay people all around are swarming in to buy condo like killer bee swarm. All the hot money from San Fransisco is coming in to buy winter olympic condo.
May 17th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
If Hong Kong’s urban center condos can sell for > $2000/sqft, why can’t Vancouver’s OV be selling for $1200/sqft??? Hong Kong has one of the worst air pollution in Asia. With its financial status being increasingly challenged by Shanghai and average people are still willing to place $2000/sqft on condos, why can’t Vancouver, with its beautiful landscape, be worth $1200/sqft?
May 17th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
I find it humourous that all these people who have lived here for 10 to 15 years are complaining about how this city has changed so much. I am a 4th Gen Vancouverite (not just Canadian, but Vancouverite)I have watched this city grow considerably, and have heard anecdotes from my father and my grandfather all about what growing up in Vancouver was like back in the day.
I remember when Yaletown was a scuzzy area and when there were no condos between the Bayshore and Georgia st.(just a parking lot and Trader Vic’s)and Coal Harbour was nothing but an industrial train yard. My grandfather used to tell me about a time when the causeway that divides Lost Lagoon from Coal Harbour was a wooden bridge and Lost Lagoon was still a part of the Pacific.
Over-development/density aside, the biggest change I have noticed is the people who live here… so few are actually from Vancouver. I remember a couple years ago at a party, someone asked where I was from. When I responded “Vancouver” they said: “No, I mean before you moved here” He was floored that he had finally met someone that was born in Vancouver. He thought that all people born in Vancouver had a secret club where we hung out.
I am constantly meeting people who moved here from Europe, Asia, Australia, US and of course everywhere else in Canada. They keep telling me how nice it is here, but so expensive. In the back of my head, I always think how much cheaper it would be if they didn’t all keep rushing here to “enjoy” the lifestyle. I am not complaining, I just get annoyed when people who have lived here for 5 years or less tell me that real estate in Vancouver only goes up when I have seen 2 crashes in my lifetime here… it’s been a long time since 81.
May 17th, 2010 at 4:47 pm
whitebear
Do you know what it costs to rent there? About 8X what it costs to rent here last time I was there. Don’t be so stupid!
May 17th, 2010 at 4:48 pm
New Listings 260
Price Changes 184
Sold Listings 133
lots of reductions today
May 17th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
Uh oh BEAR Millenium Water selling quickly. You know what to do bear. Vote down that inconvenient fact!
May 17th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
Me and my fake ID
Confetti
Tommy Africa’s
Ghandi Dancer
Luv a fair
Railway Club
Brandy’s
Dick’s on Dick’s (but only if a good band like Skinny Puppy were playing)
to name a few…..
May 17th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
@Whitebear:
Whitebear, you must be trolling? The average person in HK is NOT paying $2000/SF. Those are high end luxury units or in the most prime locations. I have friends that bought apts nearby the subway 15 mins from Central, they paid about 600/SF recently.
Also, there is a lot more money in HK. Their population is 6 or 7 million, and their GDP/person is almost the same as here.
May 17th, 2010 at 5:07 pm
@VanCity Guy:
But it hasn’t grown up. That’s the problem.
In fact, I think the city was a lot more grown up when it actually worked for a living, rather than relying on Ponzi schemes, hot money, and drugs.
May 17th, 2010 at 5:07 pm
@XXX: LOL!! Confettis with fake ID and TA’s under the bridge!! Awesome!
Sigh. The days before clubs were infested with gangs…
May 17th, 2010 at 5:11 pm
Paulb, thanks for the numbers. I think your career switch is a smart move!
By the way, it is shaping up to be another interesting day. I will stay tuned.
May 17th, 2010 at 5:15 pm
Can anyone here tell me why a fifty something man feels the need to dress like a twenty something deadbeat/hipster?
I’m about half Rennie’s age (+/- 10 years) and seeing him dressed in his skinny pants and Cons like some Elvis Costello throwback wannabe turns my stomach…
May 17th, 2010 at 5:22 pm
Thanks PaulB
Your and Inventory’s stats rock.
Hopefully we’ll see a 500+ day this week and no sales days above 200.
I’m looking for sales to trend below 150 per day as another bear sign. We are not quite there yet.
May 17th, 2010 at 5:24 pm
@Tony Danza:
It is just lack of a good taste and poor upbringing when it comes to style.
May 17th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
“When I responded “Vancouver” they said: “No, I mean before you moved here” He was floored that he had finally met someone that was born in Vancouver.”
And, my mother was born in Vancouver in 1918.
My siblings and I, too…
May 17th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
OK, I officially call ‘BULLSHIT’ on the number of sales the the Boobster McLisp announced at the OV site on the weekend. The scam of ‘salting the pot’ is the oldest in the book. It is especially prevalent in small real estate developments where the builder will put up a few phony sold signs in selcet observable windows to create an impression of public intrest.
People (unfortunatley) will be more interested, if someone else is first. Look no farther than trends in the Asian community where the ‘flavor of the month’ fires mass numbers of Camry or Minivan sales depending on which way the herd is running.
C’Mon, think about it. The number of listing is growing exponentially. Everybodies noticing and commenting and even trend followers are not all complete idiots. There is no longer any velocity to this market despite what the pimps are droning. There just aren’t that many assholes with 1.3 million desprate enough to stand in line for the OV. Mr Lisper said it himself, realized he’d mis spoken ( or was reminded he’d done so) and decided to treat the public to a ‘false shortage scam.
And yes, sadly, who the hell , with 1.3 million, is going to line up for a cookie from an aids exposed, crack drained 60 year old clown who’s taken to lisping and dressing like Justin Beeber. Sold 30+ units…..er…..I don’t think so.
Finally, I heard the bimbo on the news hour say the words ‘affluent’ and Surrey’ in the same sentence today. Now I know that it doesn’t take a degree to watch the news but what kind of an idiot can say Surrey and affluent in the same sentence without laughing?
May 17th, 2010 at 5:46 pm
@patriotz:
You are bang on, my friend… when I say grow, I meant number of buildings NOT the maturity level of it’s residents. Most of these new arrivals to Vancouver are hot shot yuppies that live month to month saving nothing in order to be perceived as living a certain lifestyle.
I miss the days when a hardworking person could live a decent lifestyle in Vancouver.
May 17th, 2010 at 5:47 pm
New Listings 278
Price Changes 195
Sold Listings 133
That’s about it for today.
May 17th, 2010 at 6:01 pm
Is Vancouver’s RE the new VSE. I guess time will tell how sleazy the RE boom really was.
May 17th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
I have only a passing familiarity with the concerned economic theories, but isn’t it the case that the Halak/Chicago/Free market economist types deny the existence of bubbles altogether? Isn’t F kinda sorta of that school? Doesn’t it then follow that he would naturally, despite an abundance of evidence to the contrary and as a function of subscribing to that same Halak/Chicago school, deny any bubble, not just one in RE?
May 17th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
Obviously realpaul you haven’t been here…
May 17th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
@specuskeptic: I think that theoretical schools / ideology play ZERO role in Flaherty’s posture.
He is a politician first. If he declared the housing market overvalued, he would be blamed by many for ‘talking down’ the market; for not ‘believing’ in the economy. If Flaherty calls a bubble and prices crash, what do you think the opposition would say? What would the average voter (who is a homeowner) think?
Can anyone name a governing politician anywhere who called a bubble a bubble? Some central bankers, sure, but they don’t have to face the electorate. Some opposition politicians, perhaps, but only as a hammer to thwack the governing party.
May 17th, 2010 at 6:31 pm
@VanCity Guy:
“I am constantly meeting people who moved here from Europe, Asia, Australia, US and of course everywhere else in Canada. They keep telling me how nice it is here, but so expensive. In the back of my head, I always think how much cheaper it would be if they didn’t all keep rushing here to “enjoy” the lifestyle.”
So Vancouver _is_ a world-class city? If it weren’t, surely it would be inhabited mostly by those who were born here?
May 17th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
Consumers are in denial with social crisis looming
http://www.canada.com/business.....id=3038105
May 17th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
@Anoymous: Canada is a country based on immigration + Vancouver is a young city, comparatively + we have Universities. Universities are great for attracting people.
Not quite the same as “World Class”. Unless Guelph gets that designation, too.
May 17th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
@Anonymous:
that is one hardcore article!
New Listings 284
Price Changes 197
Sold Listings 133
A few more listings came in.
Is anyone tracking these numbers daily? It seems like sales are getting eclipsed by reductions more and more frequently.
May 17th, 2010 at 6:56 pm
VHB, whenever I hear the words ‘bubble’ and ‘politician’ in the same sentence I can’t help thinking of my friend and yours, the highly undervalued intellectual, Barney Fwank, just before he became chairman of the House Finance Committee:
“I do want to address this thing about the bubble. I think the bubble is an entirely inappropriate metaphor. Let me just be very clear, houses ain’t tulips. Houses today even with the drop in housing prices are more valuable than tulips were however many years ago when we had the tulip business … bubbles in history haven’t been cases of irrational exuberance. They have been cases of exuberant irrationality. And there really is a distinction. Irrational exuberance means you get a little carried away with something that is basically a good thing. But exuberant irrationality is when you start thinking that tulips or some of those dumb ideas on the internet when there were some of those things that nobody in their right mind wanted to buy, those were excessive.”
Houses aren’t tulips. On such wisdom rests the self-immolation of the US economy.
May 17th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
Glad you guys enjoyed the field report and thanks Pope, Vreaa for posting it. I look forward to writing the next one when the rollercoaster is in free fall.
May 17th, 2010 at 7:36 pm
@paulb: Yeah, I am doing it here.
THANKS
May 17th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
56. disbelief I agree with you when you mention there were a lot more fun activities in the past. Carter 53 I agree with you in spirit but 20 years ago might have been rock bottom for the city. I have to admit there have been some movement back to get some life back in the city. And downtown has benefited one way from the gentrification this boom has brought. It has brought life downtown. With that said I agree with disbelief remember seafest. Bathtub races etc.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
@oneangryslav2: That’d be a laugh, wouldn’t it, if we bumped into each other in the day? I doubt we know each other now, if only because I make all my friends roll their eyes with my interest in housing…
May 17th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
Development has indeed brought life to downtown, but the reality is that Vancouver’s downtown is still terribly lame compared to other cities, both in Canada and elsewhere. Spend a weekend in Montreal, Toronto, San Diego, Seattle, Boston, etc., and you’ll instantly see it. They have a ton more arts and culture, equally nice green space (except perhaps Toronto) and better restaurants. The brutal thing is that Vancouver is now way more expensive than any of those places, despite the fact that the average salary is way less.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:36 pm
To add: the “life” brought to downtown consists mostly of a bunch of cramped cookie-cutter condos filled with particle-board furniture, cookie-cutter “casual fine dining” restaurants (only in Vancouver would The Keg pass as a hip place to go for a drink) and cookie-cutter people with little dogs, fake tans and designer jeans. Many of the people seem to come from Cranbrook or Prince George or whatever and think they’ve hit the big time because they’re living in a 600 square foot condo in Yaletown.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:46 pm
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
I just spoke with a guy who makes a ton of money in the financial business – north of half a million a year – in Vancouver. “You know this market is insane,” he said, “when my wife and I feel we’re actually priced out of the market. I mean, there’s nothing less than one point five that you’d even want to live in.” So, he rents.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:58 pm
hey 91. Insider no arguments from me, but with that said I would say there has been an improvement from the 90′s when Vancouver was known as the “no fun city” But as others posted there was a sever decline in cultural activities from the seventies and I presume before that era too. My memory doesn’t go that far back.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:03 pm
@Carter: “The older this city gets, the better it used to be!”
Agree almost 100%. I’ve been here 34 years now, and it has gone downhill in almost every way. All I can say is that my retirement does not involve Vancouver in any way other than visits.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:09 pm
I enjoy reading the posts on this site but please stop with the homophobic remarks. There are plenty of good reasons to dislike Bob Rennue but his being gay is not one of them. He has to lie for his occupation, at least be happy that he can be honest in his personal life.
I am seeing lots of for sale signs around town but also a lot of sold signs. For sales seem to be in clusters. I guess one sale triggers a lot of sellers in the area to see what they can get. I’ve noticed a lot in the old south false creek area along the seawall. I guess sellers are seeing an opportunity to dump their molnar crafted junk. Not sure of all that mess was cleaned up but I would never buy there despite the great location.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:14 pm
Bad News for Vancouver Tonight
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVt6vhRAu3k
May 17th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
@The Insider: Could not agree with you more.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
It’s kind of fun to hear some of you guys talk about how Vancouver used to be; to be honest I think I like my cities a little dark and gritty. Montreal can be awesome that way (I lived there for a year), and so can Halifax.
All cities change, it’s a question of what they become. Van is certainly bright and glittery and from a distance (say from Toronto) it looks amazing, all futuristic, high tech and glass. Add in what’s left of the rainforest, the mountains and the ocean, and Van looks like the ideal 21st century city.
It’s when you get there, you start to feel that weird undercurrent. Elevators won’t let you go to any floor in a building except the one you or your friend lives on. EVERY shop has a sign that says “no public restroom”. The back laneways are infested with homeless people doing God knows what, and you hear sirens 6-10 times a day.
There’s a class system in Vancouver, and it’s more pronounced then any city I’ve ever lived in. You’re either one of the Bright Young Things with the latest gadgets and skinny jeans, or you’re nobody. Period.
It’s very weird…. not even in Toronto did I witness anything like it.
I recall VHB posting an entry in his blog years ago asking when people would finally realize prices were unsustainable. I think he used the example of a million bucks for a crap condo as the point where it should be obvious to everyone that real estate prices were a sham.
Kinda funny that you guys are now there.
In other Scullboy related news, I’m starting to write a cookbook. I’ve had too many great ideas for dishes inspired by the food I’m finding at the farmer’s market.
I just served scallop, tomato and fiddleheads and double smoked bacon on a bed of fresh herbed fettuccine (I grew the herbs myself) which I’d tossed in a light cream sauce. The sweetness of the sauce and scallops served as a perfect counterpoint to the slight bitterness in the fiddleheads, and the smoky saltiness of the bacon just rounded the whole thing out. It was an *awesome* dish.
My family own a small oil company out this way.Next weekend is the company summer party. I’m stoked, Dad’s purchased 150lbs of lobster right off the boat for $3.50 a pound. Not only am I gonna gorge on lobster, I’m gonna turn the shells into bisque!
Now *that* my friends, is a coastal lifestyle I can get into.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:16 pm
@VanCity Guy: “I am not complaining, I just get annoyed when people who have lived here for 5 years or less tell me that real estate in Vancouver only goes up when I have seen 2 crashes in my lifetime here… it’s been a long time since 81.”
I think you hit on a very key point here as to RE prices VanCity Guy! I can lump myself in with you in a way, as I am a native Victorian (there’s even less of us than native Vancouverites
), and I have seen bad times in Victoria and Vancouver. I was here during the 81 downturn, but our property in Victoria cost my family a fortune to unload. It wasn’t pretty.
Maybe there are just too many new people living here who haven’t seen a Vancouver/Victoria style house crash, so their thinking that home prices only rise here is simply what they have observed!
All these newbies are in for the mother of all lessons!
May 17th, 2010 at 9:19 pm
I was working on a infloor heating system in a South False Creek condo where studios start around 1/2 million. Quite a few units yet to be sold. Owners are pissed because their suites are “hot.” Heating system was off for the last few days as the outdoor temperature dictated no heat and the building automation system has the heating system rightfully OFF. Suites hit the high 20′s on the south facing side. Owners say, “but my thermostat was set at 18*C!!!” Anyone with half a brain would realize that a) it was warmer than that outside b) the building doesn’t have a cooling system. is glass, faces south and has no internal ventilation nor is there a cross breeze.
My logic fails when I use the term “anyone with half a brain” , I know. What a contradiction. Enjoy your very hot summer fools, keep calling though, its time and material. LOL!!!!
I’ve worked right across the country and in the states, never seen such piss poor HVAC systems in buildings ‘worth’ so much, anywhere. If anything, it makes me angry. Unfortuanately I have to bite my tongue as I often represent the builder or their agent and can’t suggest an ice cube enema to get them through the day.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
@Anonymous:
Anonymous Says:
May 17th, 2010 at 9:19 am
@No Insight:
Loot at it this way:
If The Condo King only expected to sell 18 out of 472 units at one of the most overhyped places in recent years, what does it say about the market as a whole?
+++++
Don’t say “hole” around Rennie, he is easily distracted.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:40 pm
@Chilled: I’ve worked right across the country and in the states, never seen such piss poor HVAC systems in buildings ‘worth’ so much, anywhere.
Just another “unskilled” trades man dealing with a lot of degrees and not a trace of common sense! 
heh heh Oh yeh was a bunch of plug in portable electric heaters there the rest of the winter and the place hasn’t been able to be rented since. (It was $20,000 / month)
Couldn’t agree more but it is a great way to have infinite job security. Some of the buildings I work on have the combination heating cooling switch on the thermostat, they have no air conditioning its just a standard off the shelf thermostat, so they are piss** when I tell them just cause it says cooling doesn’t mean it has any!
Another one was a “world renowned interior decorator” who got on the strata’s ass for no heat in a 6M THouse (her opinion). When I went to look she had installed beautiful custom hardwood boxes over the “ugly” hot water radiant heaters, wit a few indiscreet slits in the top to let out the heat….I asked her if the heat comes out those slits how does the air get into your “box”. After a long physics lesson in the principles of convection from myself, she escorted me to the door, angry at ME!
May 17th, 2010 at 9:42 pm
http://fire-proxy.com/
got to love this
May 17th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
This is too funny, as if the sellers don’t have enough on their minds;
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....51584.html
May 17th, 2010 at 10:01 pm
@Absinthe: Do you remember a guy that used to wear neon-yellow shorts (with the obligatory black shirt) to Luv-a-fair once in a while during the summer of 91 or 02? That was me.
My friends & family are pretty much sick and tired of my ranting about the insanity of Vancouver’s RE market, so I don’t say anything, unless asked directly. I was chatting with my parents on Sunday and my mother mentioned the Olympic Village condos (she had seen a report about them on the local news Saturday evening), and said that if she won the lottery she’d buy my sister and her husband one of the 2BR condos. I said that you could rent them for about 2500 monthly. At that price, you could rent the place for about same as the monthly interest you’d be generating from investing the winnings in a GIC. So after 40 years, you’d have consumed as much housing as if you’d been paying a mortgage, but you would still have all of your principal, and you would not have paid a penny in strata fees, property taxes, or repairs. And I have a feeling that any repairs at the OV will cost a pretty penny.
May 17th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
Thanks for the response VHB. It makes sense that being a politician is the foundation for his bubble denial and his economic philosophy is only secondary. The ever-building preponderance of evidence to the contrary must give him pause though….
May 17th, 2010 at 10:35 pm
@Chilled: “Unfortuanately I have to bite my tongue as I often represent the builder or their agent and can’t suggest an ice cube enema to get them through the day.”
Ice cube enema… lol! :>
May 17th, 2010 at 10:39 pm
@specuskeptic:
Why so complicated?
Just hire Goldman Sachs to help out, like what they did for Greece.
May 17th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
@other ted:
……..was known as the “no fun city”….
*****************
Wadaya mean “was”? They closed the liquor stores during the Olympics. What else would the city have to do to underscore to the world that the “no fun city” moniker always was, and continues to be, right on the mark?
May 17th, 2010 at 11:32 pm
I liked Garth’s prose about OV:
When I’m in Vancouver this Thursday I’ll make a special trip to Millennium Water. Have to see this with mine own eyes. Sup a little, perchance. Bathe in the ambiance.
This, of course, is the holy grail of Greater Foolishness. If the stone square in front of the sales centre is empty, I may fall to my knees. Perhaps go prone.
…
The listings flood continues, of course, in Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary and even on the dusty, narrow, rutted road which is home to the Summer Bunker. Homeowners everywhere (including Millennium Water) are gushing properties onto the market as they always do when a storm is approaching – at epic prices, hoping to snare passing idiots who just stumbled out of 2007.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:23 am
@Pythagoras: The No Fun City was a bunch of nonsense propagated by the media like the Vancouver Province to sell papers. Further, re. liquor store closures … having people wasted in the streets, is this really fun? I am sure there were plenty of places to ‘get your drink on’ before, during and after the olympics.
For many people, crowding into English Bay with thousands of others to watch fireworks and having the best night clubs simply isn’t part of a ‘fun’ city.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:50 am
@VanCity Guy: I was looking up family history and found two ancestors on the 1898 voters list http://www.rootsweb.ancestry.c.....ters98.htm
What do I miss of the old Vancouver? Well, streets with families, children playing in the alley, neighbourhoods with life in them. I live in Tricities and I see so many areas that seem kind of empty. Then little notices appear on front doors, declaring houses uninhabitable due to grow-ops/meth labs. This city seems half-empty sometimes, which makes the real estate bubble even more confusing. People pay a million dollars for a new mansion with crackhouses next door.
Its interesting how the Olympic vitality wore off so quickly. This is a “no fun” city because so many people have crushing debt, and can only keep appearances up so long. We will become even less fun as deficit-ridden local governments continue to slash away at amenities.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
Damn you, scullboy. Quit having so much fun in Nova Scotia! Keep this up, and I may move back there.
@Pope, VHB, paulb: Once this bubble’s deflating as fast as the BC Place roof, will we head back into an info void as happened during the ’08 slump? Many blogger bears seemed to go into hibernation after listings busted wide open.