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May 17th, 2010 at 3:05 pm
No Insight:
Most of us use fake names on this board, fine.
It’s one thing to keep your identity hidden when you’re shooting the breeze about RE, but it takes a real class act to punch someone below the belt while hiding behind an anonymous handle.
May 17th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
@ The Pope:
I applaud your measures to reduce the signal-to-noise ratio on this site, but don’t you think that having the ‘forclosure’ posts shrink into unreadable oblivion a bit draconian?
.
Is there a way for us readers to disable that feature? There are times that the contrarian posters who frequent this site make some valid-but-unpopular comments/arguments.
.
And as for the obvious trolls… well, they’re good for a quiet chuckle from time to time.
May 17th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
I’ve been thinking quite a bit about the changing landscape of False Creek on both sides; Olympic Village, Yaletown, etc. It’s all very new, and very densely built, but it’s somewhat different than Coal Harbour, which has also been densely built in the same time period. Yaletown is more exposed to the rental market.
If you search craigslist for Yaletown rentals, there are 1000+ vacancies, although many repeats, some of the “luxury short term furnished” variety. Only 418, many repeats, in Coal Harbour. But by comparison, there are 244 apartments for sale in “False Creek North” and 243 in Coal Harbour, so the real estate markets are about the same.
I wonder whether all those Yaletown hopeful private landlords are going to rush toward the exits en masse at some point, especially if False Creek South (Olympic Village area) continues to flood the market with similar offerings.
It’s all such new inventory: 15 years ago I was attending warehouse raves down there, playing pool at the Automotive, jamming in the mini storage, or dancing at Starfish or Dicks on Dicks or Luvafair – and it’s COMPLETELY changed. So I am fascinated by what will happen there after the pop.
To Yaletown’s detriment: There’s no history there – it’s a lot of new money. The suites are tiny. The trees are tiny; expensive neighbourhoods do tend to feature some deciduous tree canopy. Building moved some of the nightlife along but not all of the … mmm, edgier elements. A draw: Yaletown is somewhat car unfriendly, but is transit and pedestrian friendly. To Yaletown’s benefit: It’s been relatively well planned. There are some great amenities like the Roundhouse and the seawall and a few nicely built parks, and now there’s a Skytrain station.
Will Yaletown be a “new” West End? Up until the bubble switched up the demographics the West End was one of the areas in the city you could find a great deal.
May 17th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Drachen,
Thanks for policing this website. Now, if you had kept up, you would understand that Paul is back in Vancouver and is studying full time. The term dabbling, which according to you is so very rude, was used because he posts inventory numbers. My question, again, addressed to Paul was because I am interested in a property. So if he was interested in making some money on the side, he might be interested in “dabbling” in some real estate.
May 17th, 2010 at 2:46 pm
@PaulBore
You never were a realtor except in license. You couldn’t sell in the best of markets and you certainly can’t sell now. Maybe you forgot that aspect… but keep pumping the bears up! At least you found some net-cred right?
May 17th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
Yes I am back but not selling real estate. My guess is it won’t be a great few years to be selling homes.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
New Listings 171
Price Changes 122
Sold Listings 81
May 17th, 2010 at 1:41 pm
coming from the vancouver sun, its truly over
http://www.vancouversun.com/sp.....story.html
May 17th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
Any inventory #’s.
Do you know how much social housing they could have built for the $170 million they are going to piss away (at least) at OV?
Any city politician that was in favour should NEVER be voted back into office. In fact – that would be a great thread. Major votes by city council with regards to the OV debacle.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
@Drachen: I believe Paul is alive and well in North Vancouver! Moved back!
May 17th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
Correction….”how MUCH people are actually paying”
May 17th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
“We watch closely the level of indebtedness of Canadians, particularly in the housing market and there is no evidence of a bubble,” — I don’t really understand this statement by F. If you wanted to measure a bubble, measuring indebtedness is kind of an indirect and imprecise way to measure no? Shouldn’t he be looking at price to income and price to rent ratios? Debt is an important piece of the puzzle, but the root measure is how people are actually paying.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
@Anoymous:
The point of my post below was that is DOESN’T MATTER if some parts of country are not overvalued, if the most significant markets are. Didn’t you get it? If every major English-speaking city in the country is overvalued – and they now are – you have a bubble in aggregate terms, and you are going to have a significant macroeconomic impact when that bubble bursts.
To try to excuse the nonsense that Flahery et al are peddling on the grounds that some minor markets are not overpriced makes no more sense here than it did in the US. It is intentional deception and doubly contemptible having already seen the results south of the border.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
@ Londonernow
Good catch, I laughed when I saw that story in the Globe and Mail this morning….
http://tinyurl.com/29mfx4k
Personally, I figure Fontana and Neary probably needed the dope money for a downpayment on an Olympic Village condo….
May 17th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
@Anthony:
“Paul B,
Are you still able to get info on certain properties? Are you still dabbling in real estate?”
If you’re going to as him a question you should at least be polite.
He’s not dabbling, it’s a job. Last I heard he’s still a full time agent, he just doesn’t work (or live) on this coast any more.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
Well ANOYMOUS
(good choice of name by the way)
It doesn’t matter if Flaherty is looking locally or nationally, he is looking in the rear view mirror of where Canadians were. The indebtedness shows up as bankruptcy and foreclosures AFTER the market slows – not before. And that doesn’t matter if you live in Belleville, North Battleford or wherever you may be familiar with.
May 17th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
Bank of Canada Qualifying Rate now at 6.10%
http://ow.ly/1M3wg
Those who sow the wind, reap the whirlwind…
May 17th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
@averagejoe:
It is actually success, considering that there is still some dumb money out there to be thrown on a overpriced crap.
May 17th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
Its so funny! Rob Rennie have sold only 36 units during the opening weekend with so much hype and promotions and he can tell the press with a straight face that it was a success. He should find a hole to hide.
May 17th, 2010 at 12:37 pm
@Gordon C.:
Or perhaps he’s referring to the WHOLE of Canada, and not the tiny corner of it that you’re familiar with?
May 17th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
OTTAWA, May 12 (Reuters) – Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday there does not appear to be a bubble in the country’s housing market and that the level of consumer defaults has not increased in any significant way.
“We watch closely the level of indebtedness of Canadians, particularly in the housing market and there is no evidence of a bubble,” he told reporters.
————————————————
Like the USA, defaults only really began to increase when appreciation stop or slowed to more historical rate levels. As, you could not get more money to pay off your debts by using your home equity as an ATM machine.
If Flaherty is looking at these numbers in defining a bubble or not a bubble then he is either intentionally obscuring the issue (which I believe to be most likely) or not understanding the depth of the problem.
The government knows the problem – they will not admit it to the Canadian public. They need the consumer to spend the nation out of the recession or a least defer a deeper recession until Canada can piggy back on an American recovery.
May 17th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
@patriotz: “I think that’s a jab at Alan Greenspan’s remark in 2005 that there was no national housing bubble in the US, just some “froth”.”
And it’s well known that Alan Greenspan does all of his economic reading in the tub.
May 17th, 2010 at 11:35 am
@Neptune:
“or it is a sign that the pre-sale/speculator market is dead in Vancouver.”
Speculators would have bought before April 19th, if speculation is not dead now, they are certainly on vacation. The market will be very different by the time they decide to come back.
They must now come up with 20% down and can only apply the rent as income (as opposed to taking it off the monthly mortgage payment) in qualifying for a CMHC insured loan. Here is an example from the CMHC’s own affordability calculator:
To qualify for a 1million dollar loan at 4% for 35 years they would need to come up with $200,000 down and if they get $2500/month in rent (that number has been thrown around on craigslist) they will still need an additional 8500/month in income that is not already used to service any other kind of debt. Oh and that doesn’t include any taxes, strata or utilities. I would imagine that will put the monthly income back over $10,000 after they are factored in. That is income which is not already included for any other debt (credit card, primary residence, etc.).
It’s safe to say that speculators have quite a hill to climb… the top of the hill is a ruled by a monster I like to call NegativeEquitor!
May 17th, 2010 at 11:02 am
@vreaa:
I think that’s a jab at Alan Greenspan’s remark in 2005 that there was no national housing bubble in the US, just some “froth”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05.....21fed.html
Greenspan was correct in a strict sense that there was no nationwide bubble- as some areas were not overvalued – but of course that made no difference to the national economy when the overvalued areas, which comprised the great majority of the US’s RE valuation and lending, crashed. And the same will apply to Canada.
But the level of denial in Canada has surpassed Greenspan’s – the deniers here aren’t even bothering to use weasel words:
May 17th, 2010 at 10:41 am
@Anoymous:
or it is a sign that the pre-sale/speculator market is dead in Vancouver.
Wait for today’s listings. I predict a 453 new listings day.
May 17th, 2010 at 10:39 am
Paul B,
Are you still able to get info on certain properties? Are you still dabbling in real estate?
May 17th, 2010 at 10:29 am
@Neptune:
Or maybe $1200/sq.ft is a ridiculous price, even when compared to high-end Yaletown & Coal Harbour condos (for which $600-800/sq.ft seems to be today’s market value).
Saying that the market is toast may be a little premature. Don’t forget they’re asking over a million for a one-bed apartment.
May 17th, 2010 at 10:16 am
Comparative bargain?
May 17th, 2010 at 10:00 am
Greenhorn: thanks for the work extracting CTV clips for those of us who missed them.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:59 am
No Bubble: ‘The Giant Canadian Housing Sud’
I like that…
May 17th, 2010 at 9:57 am
Rosenberg today on Canada RE:
NO HOUSING BUBBLE, EH?
Well, that is the message out of Ottawa.
Don’t buy into that. It was Ottawa’s policies, namely allowing near 100% LTV mortgages insured by the CMHC and 40-year mortgages that triggered the bubble to begin with. (Okay — we’ll call it something else: a giant sud). Home prices have surged to record levels relative to incomes or rents so call it whatever you like.
The just-released existing home sales report showed that resale home sales fell 2.6% MoM in April (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) and are down three of the past four months. On a year-over-year basis sales are up 20% partly due to easy comps but this will slow dramatically in the months ahead. Average prices are running at about 12% YoY, slowing from the 20%+ rates seen a few months ago.
New listings continue to rise – up 0.9% MoM and up nearly 30% from year-ago levels. The inventory of unsold homes moved up to 5.3 months (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) to the highest level in almost a year. This higher inventory build is consistent with what we are seeing in the new housing market, where housing starts having been running above household formation rates for about 7 months in a row. All of a sudden, the inventory landscape is beginning to change and we would expect prices to follow suit. Just in time for the Bank of Canada’s rate-hiking cycle too. If you’re a renter, start licking your chops — this is about to become a buyer’s market (hey — CMHC didn’t boost its reserves against default for no reason).
May 17th, 2010 at 9:56 am
@Rob A.:
They were protesting Rennie’s suit and sneaker combo.
And yes, it was intense.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:52 am
NO talk about the protests? Were the protests just media hype? They looked pretty intense on TV.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:47 am
MSM today reports: “Canadian home sales slip again” sales are down 2.6%… demand is expected to moderate further, the pace of that moderation is projected to be “measured and orderly.”
“Measured and orderly”??? This is reminiscent of the US’ old story of “soft landing.” We all know how well that ended.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:45 am
@ No Insight #8:
.
Or it could be looked at a third way:
.
3) Rather than focus on actual numbers, headlines can be written as “double the expected units sold the opening weekend”.
.
Much easier to put a rosy spin on that bit.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:40 am
ooooohhh, I’m going to run down there and try get my bid in on a good unit before they are all gone.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:40 am
I think VANOC should give 36 medals to those lucky buyers yesterday – they are the true Olympians. Or is it the ‘Agony of Defeat’?
May 17th, 2010 at 9:35 am
@No Insight: You couldn’t have picked a more apropos name!
May 17th, 2010 at 9:32 am
@Greenhorn:
Was he wearing Chuck Taylor’s with dress pant’s and a dress shirt?
That right there is the signal folks, the high end market in Van City is dead.
A project that is already build, got world wide exposure and hype can’t sell out? Pathetic.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:31 am
@Bankerman:
“274 left of which some for social housing?”
No, the social housing/workforce housing is on top of the 737 market units.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:19 am
@No Insight:
Loot at it this way:
If The Condo King only expected to sell 18 out of 472 units at one of the most overhyped places in recent years, what does it say about the market as a whole?
May 17th, 2010 at 8:51 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LK5Ymn9bp8
May 17th, 2010 at 8:48 am
@Bankerman @PaulB (B stands for Bore)
Rennie said he had 36 sales which was DOUBLE what he anticipated. Now you can look at that one of two ways:
1) It was a great success and the man had lower expectations which are much more inline with what the Bears here believe. Still he sold double and that is impressive.
2) It was only 36 units and he will never sell the other 400+… those who bought are idiots.
You all seem to jump on line of thought #2. Did you even go down there? It was a zoo. I wouldn’t be able to be a serious buyer in that mess (too many distractions, noise, people). I’d be heading back on a very quiet weekday when I could visit the exact unit I wanted to buy, with the full attention of the sales service staff.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:48 am
>>>Bob Rennie of Rennie Marketing Systems, the firm responsible for selling the Olympic Village homes and recouping the city’s investment, is confident all of the project’s 474 units will sell, but says it might take time.
“Let’s not kid ourselves: this isn’t a one-month sell out,” he said. “This is finished product. Vancouver is typically a presale market where you’ve got 50 per cent investors and 50 per cent homeowners.”<<<
50% investors?
Not anymore, douchebag.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:36 am
Now I understand how Vancouverites are stretching to support the crazy house prices:
BC businessmen caught smuggling drugs into the US
http://www.cknw.com/Channels/R.....ID=1230712
May 17th, 2010 at 8:25 am
@Bankerman:
“Rennie figures pent-up demand is to thank for the early surge in sales.”
LMAO! What for the 30 sales?
May 17th, 2010 at 7:24 am
From news1130 site, they are reporting 36 sales at OV over last 2 days out of 200 available. I think that is a disappointing figure if you are a bull. I think the market is ready to collapse but I thought even the condo king would have blasted out at least double that. This confirms to me that the market is OVER!
http://www.news1130.com/news/l.....ng-quickly
737 units
263 pre-sold
200 put up last weekend
274 left of which some for social housing?
How many pre-sales are up for sale again, assignments?
Thank goodness for Vancouver taxpayer to pay for this disaster.
Truly an epic financial disaster in the making.
May 17th, 2010 at 7:09 am
VCI Mystery index?
May 17th, 2010 at 6:33 am
Rennie if you read this blog, here is some advice:
Stick to the tactics,the script, get the sales ladies to show more leg, but slash the price, and throw in several decades of subsidized financing rates.
May 17th, 2010 at 6:25 am
- Me: “The miracles of record low interest rates. So that’s roughly $1,200 per sq. ft?”
- Agent: “Yes, but I’m also selling units down the street for $500 per sq. ft”
- Me: “So why, in your opinion, does this place come at a $700,000 premium?”
- Agent: “It’s an opportunity to be a part of this famous community and the proximity to the water.”
- Me: “Not only are you asking for an outrageous premium, you’re doing it at a time when there are over 18,000 units on the market, CHMC rules are tightening and mortgage rates are climbing.”
- Agent: “You should then really consider the units we have listed down the street.”
The agent didn’t follow the script he/she/it was trained to follow. Here are the canned answers:
-Yes, $1200.00 but only for a limited time, we can’t guarantee this price for ever.
-$700,000 is not much of a premium, for distinct world class unique opportunity.
-There may or may not be 18,000 units the world class cities, but there is only one Olympic Village.