Paying off the Village
Ok, this should hopefully be the last Olympic Village story for a while, but manx posted a link to more coverage of the uphill climb that the city faces to break even on construction costs and get paid for the land:
Inside city hall, officials are encouraged by the interest in the Olympic condos. But privately they express fears the city won’t recover the $170 million it is owed for the land on which the Olympic village stands.
Taking the land costs out of the equation, there may be the prospect for break-even, or a slight profit, on the construction price tag. But some serious challenges remain for this star-crossed real-estate deal.
The first is the HST, which will be applied to the new condos July 1.
Early buyers will no doubt be spurred on to make a deal before Canada Day, to escape the added HST costs. But the post-HST world could dampen buyer interest.
Vancouver city hall certainly thinks so. Officials have been lobbying the provincial government for an HST holiday, to help the city minimize the $1-billion project’s losses. The province has responded with a flat no.
The other challenge is the time frame of the Olympic sales plan.
It’s anticipated that sales of the remaining 474 condos will be stretched out over two years, to ensure there is no glut that might push down prices. The problem is the rising cost of credit.
Read the full article over at the Vancouver Sun.
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May 18th, 2010 at 6:13 am
Like there aren’t any other condos for sale in the neighbourhood?
Oh I forgot, the OV is “special”.
May 18th, 2010 at 7:36 am
http://agentwill.com/buying/th.....ium-water/
May 18th, 2010 at 7:36 am
My advice to the CoV would be to sell these condos now for what they can get for them. Don’t get all fancy with creative marketing because the world will me a much different place financially in a year or two.
May 18th, 2010 at 7:52 am
Bear like soviet russia and communist china olympic village triumph of what government can build since it take the money from everyone. Only government think big like this. Everyone want to live in millenium water bear. Billion people saw olympic show on tv and now want to buy government built condo town.
May 18th, 2010 at 7:59 am
I thought there was 300 or so million newly minted rich Chinese pounding down Vancouver’s door, scrambling over each other with suitcases full of cash, wailing and gnashing their teeth for the chance to call themselves homeowners in the Best Place on Earth? Surely it isn’t a problem to get 0.0001% of them to purchase a MW condo?
Oh, how about the 3 BILLION people who were salivating over our mountains and buildings of concrete and glass during the most successful Olympics in North America this century? Can’t we find 0.00001% of them who are interested in moving here and purchasing one of the most luxurious/green dwellings on the face of the earth? Shouldn’t these places sell themselves or are all the pumpers, boosters and shills full of shit?
May 18th, 2010 at 8:05 am
Does anyone, who attended know the Olympic Village opening, know if the band was playing “Nearer My God to Thee”?
That would be appropriate…
May 18th, 2010 at 8:13 am
Olympic Bounce – anecdote
Going to Whistler this weekend and will check out a few places. I talked to the local realtor I deal with. He knows my view but seems to enjoy my company (he must ski without a helmet?!?). He told me everything is for sale and pointed out a listing in the the Four Seasons that is a court ordered sale for 250k. These places traded between 450-500k at the peak. There are at least 10 for sale but I only know of one that is court ordered – for now.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:15 am
@1: Agent Will needs an editor:
“As we munched Mr. Bob Rennie, the King of All Condos, spoke to the crowd.”
How many of them munched Mr. Bob while the King spoke to his subjects?
May 18th, 2010 at 8:19 am
The “strategy” to sell the condo’s over two years is an admission of defeat. Any project that takes two years to sell is an abject failure.
The PR spin is to call this disaster a “marketing strategy” so that it seems that it was intended all along.
The bottom line is that there is no market for the Olympic Village. Any private sector business would have reduced prices by 40% or more (like they did in 2008).
May 18th, 2010 at 8:23 am
My favourite was the news 1130 story that said the condos were selling “quickly”. They sold 36. Doesn’t anyone here remember when presales would be sold out 2 hours after opening–hundreds of units?
Saying this is ‘quick’ is like saying black is white.
Someone with photoshop skills should make a photo illustration of Rennie as the Iraqi information minister.
“They are selling quickly. The rich foreigners are coming to buy them. They just were delayed slightly. By two years.”
May 18th, 2010 at 8:25 am
Prediction@VRENGD: Agree. But the city won’t do that. They will ‘extend and pretend.’ The political consequences of *realizing* a loss >>>> the political consequences of keeping overvalued assets on the books.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:44 am
@VHB:
The politically and economically correct strategy would have been to follow Gordo’s example with the fast ferries – auction the damn things off and blame the losses (correctly) on the previous council which got the city into this mess.
And then come next civic election, by which time prices would probably have dropped 40%, they would look like geniuses.
By committing to hold on to the OV right through the upcoming bust Vision is going to turn the NPA’s albatross into their own.
Now they just might be planning to dump them all anyway after the buyers trickle out and Rennie is just bluffing about the 2 years. We will see.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:56 am
I also love the ‘sales were double my expectations’ line that Rennie was giving.
I wonder, did he write down his 18 sales expecations anywhere? Is this claim verifiable?
Ask yourself this: If sales *had* been horrible, what could Rennie say to make things sound good? Well, pretty much what he said. It’s impossible to verify and still generates decent headlines. Even if it is 100% BS. And in this town, no one calls him on that.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:12 am
A two year absorption rate does seem long for a completed complex, given the months of inventory for Vancouver condominiums.
To borrow from an American way of making a profit on mega projects. The complex should be forced into receivership, bought at 50 cents on the dollar by a private company, that could then sell them out over the next two years at a profit. The longer Vancouver holds the property the larger the debt. I agree with Patriotz blame it on your predecessors, get the village off the books and forgotten before the next election comes around. Otherwise its the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads.
I would bet Rennie is looking for investors to buy large blocks of condominiums after demonstrating price and rents that the village should attain.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:13 am
The OV is going to be a financial disaster.
But I don’t understand the point of mocking Rennie, he’s got a tough job to unload these turkeys and it’s in the public’s best interest that he does his best. He needs to try and put a positive spin on this to generate hype and sales, and I don’t expect (nor would want) anything less.
I was at the open house on Saturday and saw the protests, and while I sympathized with the need for more social housing, I don’t think these protests were effective at all. Just like protesting the Olympics after they’ve started. The money’s spent and right now we need to find 474 greater fools to pick up the tab for these things, otherwise the taxpayer will have too.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:19 am
Hmmm 36 sales eh. Usually the presales come with a one week or two week “get out” clause. How many of the 36 do you think will get recinded once they see the anemic sales and think to themselves that the market is toast, I want out!
I take a perverse pleasure in watching this thing tank. So much money wasted on so few units. I still don’t see why we had to build posh accomodations for the athletes.
$1.4 million dollar suites, $2 million and $10 million! $600k for a 600 sf shoebox with no view. Bloody hell!
May 18th, 2010 at 9:23 am
I don’t know what the problem is here. According to Agent Will, there were 1000 realtors at the meeting. They should all buy a unit, outbid each other and send the real estate price in Vancouver to the moon! There, problem solved. If these nuts can’t see that, then I guess we’re really screwed.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:36 am
Ok. I have set up a forum thread for Iraqi Information Minister-inspired quotes. Let’s see that famed VCI creativity! Have a look here.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:38 am
I am surprise that people actually millions for a condo in the OV when a lot of them will be paying a few hundred for rent in the sup housing section. There are endless supplies of fools.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:43 am
The only difference between the Olympic Village and the Titanic, is that at least the Titanic had a live band.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:48 am
@DaMann:
They’re not presales now. There is no “get out” period for a sale. When the conditions come off, it’s binding.
May 18th, 2010 at 10:01 am
I’m curious about this 1/2 duplex on West 5th:
http://mls.ca/propertyDetails......Id=9314136
I remember both sides being for sale in the lovely summer of 2008. Anyone have the sales or listing history?
I have another question. Why does splitting a house in half double the total value of the house?
May 18th, 2010 at 10:04 am
Its in all our interests that Bob sells these things. With $1b of taxpayers money on the hook, we will all own a part of one if he fails… The protesters are really wide of the mark here.
May 18th, 2010 at 10:05 am
Anecdote from Garth Turner:
“I just spoke with a guy who makes a ton of money in the financial business – north of half a million a year – in Vancouver. “You know this market is insane,” he said, “when my wife and I feel we’re actually priced out of the market. There’s nothing less than one point five that you’d even want to live in.”
http://wp.me/pcq1o-Ta
May 18th, 2010 at 10:25 am
Been seeing alot more of these foreclosure listings lately…
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....85931.html
May 18th, 2010 at 10:31 am
It will be interesting in two years time comparing how much money was made by the HST and how much was lost by the OV project… What a glitch!
Other topic. A friend was visiting from Europe.
Me: Did you watch the Olympics on TV?
Him: Yes, the whole family was glued to the screen
Me: What do you remember the most about vancouver?
Him: The lack of snow, the helicopters bringing snow on mountains. And the pretty bad weather.
Me: Bad weather???? It was sunny most of the time!
Him: …….. It depends what you compare to. My place enjoys sunny weather most of the time.
Me: What did you think when you saw the city, the mountains, the views?
Him: I did not see any of these. Journalists did not care much about the city itself. You must understand we were watching a SPORTS program.
I felt like an idiot… I had been contaminated by the hype
May 18th, 2010 at 10:31 am
How are the developers making out in this whole deal?
iirc their generous valuation of the land at +190M is what helped them win the deal.
They gambled and lost? Time to pay up?
Hadn’t heard much news on that end of things.
May 18th, 2010 at 10:41 am
Less than 10% sold, after costs of over a billion dollars, but it was a ‘carnival’ on Saturday.
Success!
May 18th, 2010 at 10:44 am
@arbitrage: Taxpayers lost.
May 18th, 2010 at 10:49 am
Wwwwwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh I can’t pay my mortgage.
http://www.vancouversun.com/ne.....story.html
Entitled generation ‘douchebags’ get caught smuggling dope across the border. For one thing this tells us that the underground market here is saturated and grow ops aren’t as viable as they once were. And two the tip of the ice berg oon personal debt is going to treat us to many more funny stories about ‘instant rich’ stories like this. Hey guys I got 3 words ‘get a job’.
Oh and seriously ‘spreading out the condo sales at the OV over two years so that there won’t be a glut’, thats rich. I think Greggy the Idiot king is smelling the bicycle seats over at Shitty Hall.
May 18th, 2010 at 10:53 am
@patriotz:
Good point, it’s Vancouver so I just presumed presale! So that’s offically 36 suckers on the hook for the rest of their lives for these overpriced boxes. Poor souls.
May 18th, 2010 at 11:07 am
Olympic village huge waste of money by taxpayer for olympic disaster doom. Bust is here and rennie, realtor and banker to blame for my constant renting. Vancouver is a crappy town with horrible weather, no jobs, no culture, no future, nothing of interest and no fun. Much more fun to complain on blog than do anything else.
Current score: 85
May 18th, 2010 at 11:14 am
@bubbly: A carnival, nay, a “CELEBRATION”!
May 18th, 2010 at 11:15 am
I agree with Purp1 and Northeast Canuck – we need the OV sold to the last 450 suckers in town as soon as possible. I would much rather have the 450 buyers on the hook rather than the City of Vancouver. Even if the buyers are getting CMHC approved mortgages, at least this spreads the pain to the entire taxpaying population as opposed to just City of Vancouver taxpayers. After that, let the crash continue.
May 18th, 2010 at 11:16 am
@bubbly:
yes the taxpayer loses big
i was hoping to hear some schadenfreudic story about Millennium’s pain too.
May 18th, 2010 at 11:24 am
@Johnnyrent: Well! The OV have a clown.
May 18th, 2010 at 11:40 am
A six minute doc on how the real estate crash in California left something useful behind.
I don’t see granite countertops or stainless steel appliances finding such good post-crash alternate use.
http://videosift.com/video/Cannonball
May 18th, 2010 at 11:58 am
Last night I went for a walk with my partner to check out some brand newly constructed houses for sale in our neighborhood. We got there-SOLD! They were listed at $749k each. We started talking about the upcoming housing crash and my partner expressed concern that once the crash starts, there will be plenty of people like us, who are just waiting at the sidelines to buy, thus prices won’t go down as much as we think. I said “Take a look around, how many people do we know are renting, rather than buying these days? It’s pretty meager. Anyone who has a decent job has bought something highly overpriced in the last few years.” It’s true, even people who had agreed with us for years, that a correction was coming, ran in and purchased after the rebound in 2009. Sometimes I feel like the last man standing.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:08 pm
@Purp1: Well, I can only speak for myself when I say I hope the city gets well and truly burnt by this. And if it hurts the taxpayer….well, so be it. You know the saying that “we deserve the leaders we get”? Well I believe that.
When our city gov’t basically speculates on property with our tax dollars. Well, all I can say is I hope they get burnt, and that the voters remember this next time one of our leaders gets a bright idea. The problem I see is the 70% of people who “own” are all for overpriced real estate. It’s almost a form of “tyranny of the majority”. Our leaders fall all over themselves pandering to the “homeowner”. Renters don’t matter.
The devil in me hopes they hang onto these properties for 2 more years, and have to sell them after the crash.
An anecdote. One of my co-workers just bought a condo downtown. It’s beautiful, but where she used to plan holidays (she likes to travel) and plan outings, now she is saving up for furniture, and can’t afford to travel anymore. I feel sorry for people like that, but this “your house is your best investment” mentality needs to stop.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:08 pm
@rubberduckie:
Titles to the stratafied 1/2 duplexes were registered on September 9, 2008. 2922 W 5th sold for 899,000 on January 12, 2010. 2918 W 5th has not sold yet.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
@Krazy Kanuk:
I agree, I don’t want to see the city off the hook for this one. They had no business getting into the condo building game. Whether they wanted to or not, they shouldn’t have. It wil also shed a light onto how much these Olympics will really have cost the city of Vancouver.
As a side note I have decided to boycott Home Hardware. Their slogan used to be ” Home of the handyman” now it’s “Helping home owners” So as a renter I’m not welcome? This whole boom has created the “second class citizen” renters… I can’t wait till this crap is over with and sanity restored.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:27 pm
City and First Nations just agreed on development of 8 acres on south side of Burrard Bridge (in between Planetarium (sp?), College of Music and Bridge. FN braintrust say they want to get out of old leasing land model to active development. Good luck with that. I wish the city had stuck to “just” leasing!
ps I thought there was no land left!
May 18th, 2010 at 12:28 pm
An anecdote. One of my co-workers just bought a condo downtown. It’s beautiful, but where she used to plan holidays (she likes to travel) and plan outings, now she is saving up for furniture, and can’t afford to travel anymore. I feel sorry for people like that…
.
Wow, that is one bizarre way of looking at life – considering that half the planet lives on $2 a day or less, cutting back on vacations looks pretty lame in comparison to real sacrifice.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
@DaMann: Thanks for the vote of confidence.
I completely agree with your thoughts on the true cost of Olympics. If the city somehow manages to come out on top of this foolish enterprise, the next prospective host will say “it doesn’t matter the cost…..we will always be able to recoup…look at Vancouver 2010″. It’s the whole moral hazard thing.
To further my rant, $170 MILLION!?!?. Crazy. The right thing to do would have been to rent out a whole hotel for 2 weeks. Say $4000 a room for the 2 weeks times 400 rooms = $16 million. Less than 10% of what it looks like this debacle will cost.
Yeah, I guess I’m a little bit bitter. I hope they (we) really get spanked by this.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
DaMann,
My son is always laughing at Home HW commercials. For him they sound as “Home moaners helping home moaners”.
I have not been to any of Rona/HD/HHW stores for half a year, and because of that, as a renter, have a sizeable increase in my disposable income comparing to my previous homeownership.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
@Raincouver: Well, I suppose it depends on what you are sacrificing and what you get in return. Don’t get me wrong, I feel sorry for the 50% that live on $2 a day.
The point I was trying to make is my coworker is now “house poor”. She could have rented (in the same place), gone on vacations, given to charity, and still saved more money than she is now (about $0).
What do you think is better use of money???
May 18th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
@XXX: Link please.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
@realpaul:
Why assume that these people were smuggling dope for the purposes of paying their mortgage? Or that this somehow means that the local market is saturated? I don’t think either of these assumptions are supported by the facts of this case.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
@anonymousAA:
That’s just a reflection of you age and demographic. Most people in your circle have purchased. There are all sorts of people younger than you and in a different demographic that have yet to purchase. The buyer pool never dries up.
I think there are a lot of people who sat out the boom for fear of buying at the top. The number of those types of potential buyers is probably quite high because we are near peak pricing. I think many such buyers will jump in should we ever have a 15% correction because that is a far as prices dropped during the correction a couple years ago. The people who missed a chance at discount prices the first time around will not be so silly as to do it a second time.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
@bubbly: NM, here is the link: http://www.vancouversun.com/ne.....story.html
May 18th, 2010 at 12:54 pm
Krazy Kanuk — Well, you’re assuming that if we get burned by the OV that that will prevent future debacles. What evidence is there that would be the case? Expo land sale was a fiasco. Montreal 1976 was a fiasco. Fast Ferries ditto. Call me cynical, but I don’t think that the city’s taxpayers having to pony up a few hundred million for the OV is going to be a very good deterrent to future mistakes. Nope, I still want to see Rennie make a killing on those condos. If the city has to pony up that will be another expensive mistake that no one will learn from.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
Purp, the Expo land sale is STILL a fiasco. It hasn’t ended.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
@Dave.: “The people who missed a chance at discount prices the first time around will not be so silly as to do it a second time.”
Ha, ha! Wishful thinking. When RE prices collapse, very few people will want to sink hundreds of thousands of dollars into a broken ponzi scheme, even if they can qualify for a mortgage under higher rates and new rules.
Don’t believe me? Just ask an American.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:08 pm
@Krazy Kanuk: Yes, but remember KK, when she’s about to retire her condo will be worth 1.5 gazillion dollars (Dave, would that be in real or nominal terms?) and then she’ll cash out and travel the world with the help of her windfall.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
@Dave.:
Yes, people will jump in. Lots of them? I think not. That didn’t work so well in the States did it? Meanwhile, Canadians make up the largest % of buyers in Phoenix. How come? Because Americans are way too indebted (and underwater) to consider buying MORE real estate. And the pool will dry up…interest rates will go up, thus eliminating many people from the potential buyers’ scene, and even more people will have to sell because of higher interest rates. I look at 20 year old kids today and think, jeez, when rates are 7%, they are embarking on university educations which will end up costing $30k in student loans, they come out and get a job that pays $50k…how will they buy that house for $700k (and the monthly mortgage payment is $4152, assuming they somehow scraped up a $50k downpayment.) Sure, you can argue that they will just buy a condo, but at even 50% of that amount, most would be hard-pressed to pay the mortgage when rates are 7%. AND, to add to that, if RE prices aren’t skyrocketing, and just flatline (or even drop slightly, as you suggest), people will probably have to think “why should I pay $2000/month for a condo when I can RENT one for half that price? Might as well sit tight and save for a bigger downpayment.” Because the biggest flurry to get into real estate is when prices are going UP, not flatlining. And especially not when it’s dropping.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Coming to a Condo near you?
http://www.nbcwashington.com/n.....39284.html
May 18th, 2010 at 1:12 pm
@Purp1: And this is the problem I have with us (the average voter). We have a 2 minute attention span. We all thought it was going to be great….hosting the Olympics…getting rich off real estate. Life is great! No one remembered Montreal, or no one cared. It’s different here. This is VANCOUVER!!! best place on earth.
Somehow, someday, after enough of these stupid decisions are made collectively, the optimist in me thinks we will learn from our mistakes. If the OV turns out fine, it legitimizes these stupid decisions.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
@Krazy Kanuk:
That’s true, Kanuk, people could spend their money on more worthwhile things, but they don’t. No need to feel empathy for them. It’s their choice.
I always thought that banksters, financial fraudsters and government enablers were behind the housing/credit bubble.
But a lot of people around here say that it’s the emotional first time buyers/fucked borrowers that are driving the market. That could well be.
I certainly don’t feel sorry for their choices, though.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
@Dave.:
Quite right. What dries up is the pool of buyers at inflated prices.
And then what happens?
May 18th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
June 1: Bank Of Canada will increase the overnight lending rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. That’s still insanely low, but it’s a start.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
@Dave.:
“I think there are a lot of people who sat out the boom for fear of buying at the top. The number of those types of potential buyers is probably quite high because we are near peak pricing. I think many such buyers will jump in should we ever have a 15% correction because that is a far as prices dropped during the correction a couple years ago. The people who missed a chance at discount prices the first time around will not be so silly as to do it a second time.”
“I think…”, “…probably…”, “I think…”, “…will not…”
I love how from, thinking probably thinking you jump to an absolute, “will not”.
Davian logic at it’s finest. I think probably things are blah blah. Therefore blah blah is incontrovertibly proven.
Ahhh, I remember there used to be times when you could actually stretch and cherry pick facts to support your position, now you just pull it out of the air. I guess it’s a sign of the times huh? Even the lack of supporting facts doesn’t cause Dave to give up.
Hell he’ll still deny the crash after 50% of home value is gone. I can see it now, “But in NOMINAL dollars it’s only 45% so it’s not REALLY a crash yet. I’m still right you know. 45% loss is a stable market and things are turning the corner, prices will jump back up before you know it….”
May 18th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
@Dave.:
Right Dave, because everything that happened in 2008 is going to happen again (2010).
Back to school for you.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
I’m starting to get the shakes – any numbers updates?
May 18th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
Paulb or Inventory;
when you have some time could you give us an update on the current invemtory stock? Are we close to 18,500?
May 18th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
One of my co-workers listed his Burnaby townhouse at the beginning of this month. All it took was one open house and he received an offer from a couple that absolutely loved the place. Even better, and much to his surprise, they offered him what he was asking (low $300′s).
Today he learned they couldn’t get financing…
In ’08 I only knew one person selling (and he chased the market down until he sold for 20% below list). Today I know 3, and all of them admit that this market is going bad and regret not selling sooner – 2 have priced their properties sharply as a result, the other is counting on a real sucker but is willing to pull the trigger on a big reduction.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
@anonymousAA:
The number of people rushing to sell, will outnumber the buyers on the sideline. Why? Because so many people own more than one property in town. This is that hoarding of inventory (no its not just the Asians) that, upon a change of pyschology, will flood the market.
I’m sure everyone knows people that own multiple properties on an average salary. I sure do. They are the X factor.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
“… Today he learned they couldn’t get financing……”
Lesson learned – always get pre-approved mortgage before going open houses and start making offers. In the above case, the couple just might get the Financing they need before Apr19 based on the old qualifying rule. But too bad now, they loved the place but can not afford it.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
I =@F guy: I do know a couple of guys with more than 10 houses, 1 with 5 houses, 4 with 3 or more, etc, etc. etc.
May 18th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
@F guy:
No, there are always more buyers on the sidelines than there are people who want to sell. What matters is how much they are willing to pay. Busts happen when people who want (and more so need) to sell cannot find buyers at the price they expect. So the price must come down until those on the sidelines are willing to buy.
High inventories do not indicate a shortage of buyers. There is never a shortage of buyers per se. They indicate that sellers are asking too much.
May 18th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
18,290
May 18th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
Here’s a new poll started by Globe Investor yesterday: “How would you rate the chances of a double-dip recession?”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1571375/
8% Won’t happen
32% Not likely to happen
42% Likely to happen
17% Will happen
Go vote!
May 18th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
@F guy:
“I’m sure everyone knows people that own multiple properties on an average salary. I sure do. They are the X factor.”
Sure do! I know several people who make about $50k and own 2-3 properties. These people are carrying up to $800k in mortgages. Some of these are rental properties with mortgages where the rent *just* covers the mortgage at a variable rate. Pretty scary, but I’m sure these people haven’t even done the math if rates go up. Nasty surprise coming June 1st.
May 18th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
Damn, it seems the pace is slowing down a bit. Still below 18,300?
Hopefully it will pick up speed again. In any case, not too bad. We should end the week at 18,600 or more.
May 18th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
Hope you guys had a good time at the 18K party……it could be your last for a while
May 18th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
@Primus:
With inventory reaching 19k and above, it will be a while actually
May 18th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
Potentially huge blow to BC economy here:
http://tinyurl.com/29x3usx
May 18th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
New Listings 273
Price Changes 163
Sold Listings 98
Good start!
May 18th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
@Drachen:
“Davian logic at it’s finest. I think probably things are blah blah. Therefore blah blah is incontrovertibly proven.”
That’s not what Dave said. You’re too busy arguing for the sake of argument to read the actual words. That whole paragraph was obviously his opinion.
Perhaps you’d prefer every sentence to start with “.. And, on the assumption that the previous statement is true it therefore follows that…”?
May 18th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
“I =@F guy: I do know a couple of guys with more than 10 houses, 1 with 5 houses, 4 with 3 or more, etc, etc. etc.
The greed! I hope they get a good spanking.
May 18th, 2010 at 5:14 pm
paulB, could sales month over month drop by more than 20% this month vs April?
how does the trend look?
thanks!!!
May 18th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
@1:
Not sure 1, VHB would know better.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
New Listings 313
Price Changes 176
Sold Listings 127
Same pattern of at least double the listings as sales, and fewer sales than price reductions. Very ominous…
May 18th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
North and West Vancouver today. Whoa…
New Listings 40
Price Changes 16
Sold Listings 3
May 18th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
The only thing that can keep this market on life support for any longer is:
Team Bill Good and Rennie.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:23 pm
I am starting to feel like it is normal to have net 500-1000 listings per week!
I am almost nonchalant towards it now. Almost.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
@paulb:
How is a 50% sale to list ominous? That’s perfectly balanced.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
So 150-200 per day is the norm. I wonder if this will continue into June? Will people start to panic as listings balloon creating more listings creating more panic until houses go no bid?
McLovin
May 18th, 2010 at 6:36 pm
Anybody catch the interview on BNN with “unbiased expert” Don Campbell?
Unbelievable, he conceded that Toronto may be 18% overvalued, but he was quick to point out that it doesn’t mean that prices will crash; it will just take a while for fundamentals to catch up.
Then he went on to say, that Vancouver may end up in a condo oversupply in 2012-2013.
Yeah, ok Don sign me up for your next seminar. I want to be just like Tom Vu and have biking clad chicks on my yacht.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:36 pm
Even with 1500 to 3000 new listing per wk,Chinese from mainland will scoop them up in a flash.Their new found wealth either under the table,or rob from the middle Kingdom with drown out the bear camp once for all.Those condo will sold out in few weeks.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
@Dave.: Perhaps you skipped out on math class on a regular basis – 127/313*100% gives roughly 40% not the 50% you claim, come on, quit the bullshit
May 18th, 2010 at 6:48 pm
Don Campbell has stated in his REIN forum that it would suck to be a renter for the 5 years as the price decreases will further depress the rental supply and consequently causing the rent in increase which in turn will lead to greater return for RE investors. It’s all there on his forum. Wonder what would happen if that turn out to be extremely wrong.
I think he also claimed in his book that he told his REIN members to sell out of Vancouver before the late 90s crash.
Anyways, those REIN members buys lots of properties so who knows? They might be salivating to get into GVRD RE after a 15% dip. I think Surrey and a couple other GVRD towns made into their top 10 cities to invest list.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
@paulb: Hi Paul,
Is that it for the day? or more coming??
May 18th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
Not directly related to the OV, but a good read none the less:
Why Deleveraging Hurts
May 18th, 2010 at 7:06 pm
WOW!
North and W Van must be prety close to panic mode.
Did a tour today, and the “for sale” signs make the place look the day before an election.
May 18th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
New Listings 337
Price Changes 205
Sold Listings 135
N/W Van
New Listings 49
Price Changes 23
Sold Listings 4
May 18th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Uh oh. Looks like there are kitchen countertop “issues” at W as reported on the CTV News with Bill “Pretty Good” Jr.
One poor owner/schmuck is trying to get his replaced…entirely. Seems as though they “stain” every time anything is either spilled or set down upon them.
W Spokesperson, Jill Killeen, wants everyone to “work with her” to solve this dilemma.
My advice to Jill: just give ‘em new ones. They’ve certainly PAID ENOUGH already, haven’t they? And then some.
May 18th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
@Dave.: As I mentioned before no self respecting BULL who was confident with their choices would spend a second on a bear blog ….unless they needed to argue the case and prove they weren’t the stupidest or as is said dumber does as dumber is. If you feel you are right you wouldn’t be here, but you don’t!
Heh heh!
May 18th, 2010 at 7:22 pm
@Dave.: 50% Dave? How’s the math? Paul posted a sell list of 127/313. This is 40.6%. Can we agree that 40.6 is not 50?
May 18th, 2010 at 7:25 pm
@1: We had 3512 sales in April 2010. Last I projected, we were on track for roughly 3000 sales in May. That’s about 15% less. But there is still a lot of May left, so who knows.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:00 pm
Hi Paul,
If a person accepted an offer today, when would it show up as a sale in the MLS? I understand each agent may take a different amount of time to process, but just a general guess would be helpful.
Thanks.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
Chipmans blog has one post today if you don’t count my comment about no action. And the only sign of life on the Johnny Horton blog is…well, Johnny Horton.
So much for the bulls.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Why does everyone keep saying sales are ‘holding up’ and are ‘strong’?
We are on a pace for about 3000 sales this month (3042 to be precise). Here are sales for the previous 9 Mays.
2001 2703
2002 3429
2003 3279
2004 3916
2005 4434
2006 4297
2007 4331
2008 3002
2009 3524
So, we’ll likely be ahead of 2001, and it will be a close race to beat 2008. So, we’re doing about the same as 2008. Great. How did 2008 turn out again? Can’t remember . . .
May 18th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
“Chipmans blog has one post today…”
Ugh. Who would want to read what that twerp has to say?
May 18th, 2010 at 8:13 pm
New Listings 358
Price Changes 250
Sold Listings 154
May 18th, 2010 at 8:19 pm
So in other words, we’re “on pace” to equal the second-to-lowest year for sales in the past decade (yeah, that’s a strong showing).
You have to hand it to the real estate community, those vested in them (economists) or supported by them (mainstream media). There are no better spin doctors. Its really tragic how many unsuspecting lemmings they herd off the proverbial cliff.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
“Its really tragic how many unsuspecting lemmings they herd off the proverbial cliff.”
ON THE OTHER HAND, there are/were a LOT of people who, presented with compelling evidence that this was the biggest bubble in history, simply shrugged their shoulders and bought anyway.
I feel very little sympathy for them.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:36 pm
@anonymous:
How many here believe that Johnny is the pimp Jurock himself? Click on the up arrow if you do. I do.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:49 pm
@VHB: Loved the Rennie quote from the article after selling only 36 of 474 units at the Olympic Village:
“I’m happy, really happy. We’re ahead of schedule.”
Thought that was perfect for your False Creek Bob forum topic, so I made this.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
@Boombust:
Boombust, I’m the “proxy” poster, I checked out the stats on visits to his blog, and discovered most were directed through this site.
I can’t understand why The Great One- The Pope provides a link.
Chipman is the most shameless, most useless on the web.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
Found a gem of a link.
For anyone interested in learning about the psychological tendencies that cause the human brain to draw incorrect conclusions…fuel the boom and bust of financial bubbles…check out this very cool visual guide:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/3054.....t-Planning
Contents:
The 19 social biases
The 8 memory biases
The 42 decision making biases
The 36 probability biases
May 18th, 2010 at 8:55 pm
While Jurock provides a platforms for scumbags like Mike Stuart and Sam Dimou (aka Silverman) his biggest fault is allowing sick perverts like Johnny Horton to escape the administrators.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:11 pm
Thats about it for today
New Listings 380
Price Changes 264
Sold Listings 166
18,314
May 18th, 2010 at 9:19 pm
Before having a look at the OV public tour I stopped in at the Pinnacle presentation centre. This particular pile of poo will be situated along 2nd & Crowe. So on the south side is the busy 2nd street and directly north of it is the Foundry. In other words, either noise or obstructed views are in store for all units. Selling for over $600/SF! They told me that Phase I was already sold out. Someone explain this craziness to me!!
I think the lower priced units at the OV will sell. There are too many greedy irrational buyers in this city. I think where they will suffer is the $1M plus units. I just don’t see many people with that kind of cash forking out for a complex with a mediocre unestablished location, decent views (but not as good as coal harbour and only in very few units), next to social and senior housing. Also, the high end units aren’t that special. They have the same finishings as all the other units – same appliances, flooring countertops etc. Only differentiation is size and view. And I don’t see that view lasting long with further development expected by Condord on north false creek as well as a school being built on the west side of the development.
On The National last night the anchor proclaimed the housing market was still “hot”. Sigh. I keep seeing the listings go up but there still seems to be willing buyers at inflated prices. I don’t get it.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:47 pm
Pope. Question.
The posts that have nothing written, but that you have slapped a foreclosure stamp on…did you erase what was written as it was too rude?
Just curious.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:52 pm
We’ve added 137.7 net new listings a day this month. With 8 working days left, that would add 1102 more. This would take us to 19,416. We should make 19K in a week or so, but 20K will have to wait until June.
May 18th, 2010 at 10:00 pm
@girlbear: In at least one case no insight had tagged the downarrow to bring pop ups on to the screen…
May 18th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
i`ve incorporated my company today…
Rennie Repo Systems.
May 18th, 2010 at 10:37 pm
@girlbear: The signal to noise ratio was getting pretty bad for a while, so I set a micro-font for downrated posts. I’ve just reset that to the old style.
@Animal Spirit: I know of no case that this has happened and don’t believe it would be technically possible for someone to do. The goal was simply to improve the signal to noise ratio.
May 18th, 2010 at 11:57 pm
Don’t know if it’s true, but from a media source more than half of the OV buyers over the weekend were Asians. The sold units included a $5M penthouse.
May 18th, 2010 at 11:58 pm
@Anonymous:
Thats probably in line with the general demographic of Vancouver. We just need to sell them out, to whomever! Otherwise the taxpayers get hurt.
May 19th, 2010 at 12:08 am
Just checked Jurock’s RET site.. it really is a ghost town now. Go Pope!
May 19th, 2010 at 12:20 am
@Anonymous:
C, immense Chinese purchasing power will definitely sustain Van RE perpetually though there might be occasional and minor hiccup but owning a pc of Van RE is the safest investment.Those retarded bear must be blinded and delusive.OPen your eyes,from east to west in Van every block of single-house units are mostly owned either by wealthy or middle class Chinese dwellers and they will stay there for long haul.Even the int rate were tripled in the future,they will just hold on there; also most of them are renting out to supplement their mortgage. American-type default will never happen in Van. Vancouver is a difference city.
May 19th, 2010 at 1:11 am
@patriotz Indeed that is the correct way to think about this. As someone once remarked, “there are no bad assets, only bad prices”. There is a buyer out there for pretty much anything. Gotta meet them on the price.
May 19th, 2010 at 1:38 am
@ House buyer
What is with the fake chinese accent. Is your life so pathetic that your idea of fun is to pose as an anonymous chinese person claiming they will prop up Vancouver RE in perpetuity in an obvious attempt to incite hatred towards that race? I can’t imagine how hollow your life must be to feel the need to do this everyday, are you related to johnny horton?
May 19th, 2010 at 3:26 am
@Talking:
Fact is fact. there ain’t no hatred,only those who are blinded don’t understand why Van RE meet the same fate as US,coz Chinese are prudent and stable homeowners who won’t run away from their financial obligation as those US owners. Don’t use race issue as a weapon.
May 19th, 2010 at 3:29 am
@Talking:
Fact is fact. there ain’t no hatred,only those who are blinded don’t understand why Van RE will never meet the same fate as US RE,coz Chinese are prudent and stable homeowners who won’t run away from their financial obligation as those US owners. Don’t use race issue as a weapon.@House buyer:
May 19th, 2010 at 9:24 am
Long time reader first time poster. I don’t know if anyone caught this or not last Tuesday Business in Vancouver had an article on the OV and Bob Rennie stated this:
“The stats are shocking in how little inventory is [becoming available] downtown,” he told reporters during a media tour at the opening of the Vancouver Olympic Village last Saturday.
Is this guy for real? There will be nothing but inventory coming into the market in the next while. I don’t know why no one in the media calls BS on this guy.
The full article is here:
http://tinyurl.com/27d8tb2
May 19th, 2010 at 9:40 am
@KWL: I had to go check that out. “Downtown” – which is a big area including Woodwards and Yaletown – by itself is over 500. West End, 270. False Creek North, 239. Coal Harbour, 243.
So, over a thousand is a shockingly low level of downtown inventory? At the beginning of the year we had just under nine thousand for Inventory’s ENTIRE area.
Baghdad Bob, indeed.
May 19th, 2010 at 11:30 am
@VHB #102
I think if you find the stats for Mar and Apr you’ll find them closer to 2002 and 2007, I remember I saw them somewhere. This May is certainly faltering though.