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May 18th, 2010 at 8:00 pm
Hi Paul,
If a person accepted an offer today, when would it show up as a sale in the MLS? I understand each agent may take a different amount of time to process, but just a general guess would be helpful.
Thanks.
May 18th, 2010 at 7:25 pm
@1: We had 3512 sales in April 2010. Last I projected, we were on track for roughly 3000 sales in May. That’s about 15% less. But there is still a lot of May left, so who knows.
May 18th, 2010 at 7:22 pm
@Dave.: 50% Dave? How’s the math? Paul posted a sell list of 127/313. This is 40.6%. Can we agree that 40.6 is not 50?
May 18th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
@Dave.: As I mentioned before no self respecting BULL who was confident with their choices would spend a second on a bear blog ….unless they needed to argue the case and prove they weren’t the stupidest or as is said dumber does as dumber is. If you feel you are right you wouldn’t be here, but you don’t!
Heh heh!
May 18th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Uh oh. Looks like there are kitchen countertop “issues” at W as reported on the CTV News with Bill “Pretty Good” Jr.
One poor owner/schmuck is trying to get his replaced…entirely. Seems as though they “stain” every time anything is either spilled or set down upon them.
W Spokesperson, Jill Killeen, wants everyone to “work with her” to solve this dilemma.
My advice to Jill: just give ‘em new ones. They’ve certainly PAID ENOUGH already, haven’t they? And then some.
May 18th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
New Listings 337
Price Changes 205
Sold Listings 135
N/W Van
New Listings 49
Price Changes 23
Sold Listings 4
May 18th, 2010 at 7:06 pm
WOW!
North and W Van must be prety close to panic mode.
Did a tour today, and the “for sale” signs make the place look the day before an election.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
Not directly related to the OV, but a good read none the less:
Why Deleveraging Hurts
May 18th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
@paulb: Hi Paul,
Is that it for the day? or more coming??
May 18th, 2010 at 6:48 pm
Don Campbell has stated in his REIN forum that it would suck to be a renter for the 5 years as the price decreases will further depress the rental supply and consequently causing the rent in increase which in turn will lead to greater return for RE investors. It’s all there on his forum. Wonder what would happen if that turn out to be extremely wrong.
I think he also claimed in his book that he told his REIN members to sell out of Vancouver before the late 90s crash.
Anyways, those REIN members buys lots of properties so who knows? They might be salivating to get into GVRD RE after a 15% dip. I think Surrey and a couple other GVRD towns made into their top 10 cities to invest list.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
@Dave.: Perhaps you skipped out on math class on a regular basis – 127/313*100% gives roughly 40% not the 50% you claim, come on, quit the bullshit
May 18th, 2010 at 6:36 pm
Even with 1500 to 3000 new listing per wk,Chinese from mainland will scoop them up in a flash.Their new found wealth either under the table,or rob from the middle Kingdom with drown out the bear camp once for all.Those condo will sold out in few weeks.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:36 pm
Anybody catch the interview on BNN with “unbiased expert” Don Campbell?
Unbelievable, he conceded that Toronto may be 18% overvalued, but he was quick to point out that it doesn’t mean that prices will crash; it will just take a while for fundamentals to catch up.
Then he went on to say, that Vancouver may end up in a condo oversupply in 2012-2013.
Yeah, ok Don sign me up for your next seminar. I want to be just like Tom Vu and have biking clad chicks on my yacht.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
So 150-200 per day is the norm. I wonder if this will continue into June? Will people start to panic as listings balloon creating more listings creating more panic until houses go no bid?
McLovin
May 18th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
@paulb:
How is a 50% sale to list ominous? That’s perfectly balanced.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:23 pm
I am starting to feel like it is normal to have net 500-1000 listings per week!
I am almost nonchalant towards it now. Almost.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
The only thing that can keep this market on life support for any longer is:
Team Bill Good and Rennie.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
North and West Vancouver today. Whoa…
New Listings 40
Price Changes 16
Sold Listings 3
May 18th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
New Listings 313
Price Changes 176
Sold Listings 127
Same pattern of at least double the listings as sales, and fewer sales than price reductions. Very ominous…
May 18th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
@1:
Not sure 1, VHB would know better.
May 18th, 2010 at 5:14 pm
paulB, could sales month over month drop by more than 20% this month vs April?
how does the trend look?
thanks!!!
May 18th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
“I =@F guy: I do know a couple of guys with more than 10 houses, 1 with 5 houses, 4 with 3 or more, etc, etc. etc.
The greed! I hope they get a good spanking.
May 18th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
@Drachen:
“Davian logic at it’s finest. I think probably things are blah blah. Therefore blah blah is incontrovertibly proven.”
That’s not what Dave said. You’re too busy arguing for the sake of argument to read the actual words. That whole paragraph was obviously his opinion.
Perhaps you’d prefer every sentence to start with “.. And, on the assumption that the previous statement is true it therefore follows that…”?
May 18th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
New Listings 273
Price Changes 163
Sold Listings 98
Good start!
May 18th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
Potentially huge blow to BC economy here:
http://tinyurl.com/29x3usx
May 18th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
@Primus:
With inventory reaching 19k and above, it will be a while actually
May 18th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
Hope you guys had a good time at the 18K party……it could be your last for a while
May 18th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
Damn, it seems the pace is slowing down a bit. Still below 18,300?
Hopefully it will pick up speed again. In any case, not too bad. We should end the week at 18,600 or more.
May 18th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
@F guy:
“I’m sure everyone knows people that own multiple properties on an average salary. I sure do. They are the X factor.”
Sure do! I know several people who make about $50k and own 2-3 properties. These people are carrying up to $800k in mortgages. Some of these are rental properties with mortgages where the rent *just* covers the mortgage at a variable rate. Pretty scary, but I’m sure these people haven’t even done the math if rates go up. Nasty surprise coming June 1st.
May 18th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
Here’s a new poll started by Globe Investor yesterday: “How would you rate the chances of a double-dip recession?”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le1571375/
8% Won’t happen
32% Not likely to happen
42% Likely to happen
17% Will happen
Go vote!
May 18th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
18,290
May 18th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
@F guy:
No, there are always more buyers on the sidelines than there are people who want to sell. What matters is how much they are willing to pay. Busts happen when people who want (and more so need) to sell cannot find buyers at the price they expect. So the price must come down until those on the sidelines are willing to buy.
High inventories do not indicate a shortage of buyers. There is never a shortage of buyers per se. They indicate that sellers are asking too much.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
I =@F guy: I do know a couple of guys with more than 10 houses, 1 with 5 houses, 4 with 3 or more, etc, etc. etc.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
“… Today he learned they couldn’t get financing……”
Lesson learned – always get pre-approved mortgage before going open houses and start making offers. In the above case, the couple just might get the Financing they need before Apr19 based on the old qualifying rule. But too bad now, they loved the place but can not afford it.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
@anonymousAA:
The number of people rushing to sell, will outnumber the buyers on the sideline. Why? Because so many people own more than one property in town. This is that hoarding of inventory (no its not just the Asians) that, upon a change of pyschology, will flood the market.
I’m sure everyone knows people that own multiple properties on an average salary. I sure do. They are the X factor.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
One of my co-workers listed his Burnaby townhouse at the beginning of this month. All it took was one open house and he received an offer from a couple that absolutely loved the place. Even better, and much to his surprise, they offered him what he was asking (low $300′s).
Today he learned they couldn’t get financing…
In ’08 I only knew one person selling (and he chased the market down until he sold for 20% below list). Today I know 3, and all of them admit that this market is going bad and regret not selling sooner – 2 have priced their properties sharply as a result, the other is counting on a real sucker but is willing to pull the trigger on a big reduction.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
Paulb or Inventory;
when you have some time could you give us an update on the current invemtory stock? Are we close to 18,500?
May 18th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
I’m starting to get the shakes – any numbers updates?
May 18th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
@Dave.:
Right Dave, because everything that happened in 2008 is going to happen again (2010).
Back to school for you.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
@Dave.:
“I think there are a lot of people who sat out the boom for fear of buying at the top. The number of those types of potential buyers is probably quite high because we are near peak pricing. I think many such buyers will jump in should we ever have a 15% correction because that is a far as prices dropped during the correction a couple years ago. The people who missed a chance at discount prices the first time around will not be so silly as to do it a second time.”
“I think…”, “…probably…”, “I think…”, “…will not…”
I love how from, thinking probably thinking you jump to an absolute, “will not”.
Davian logic at it’s finest. I think probably things are blah blah. Therefore blah blah is incontrovertibly proven.
Ahhh, I remember there used to be times when you could actually stretch and cherry pick facts to support your position, now you just pull it out of the air. I guess it’s a sign of the times huh? Even the lack of supporting facts doesn’t cause Dave to give up.
Hell he’ll still deny the crash after 50% of home value is gone. I can see it now, “But in NOMINAL dollars it’s only 45% so it’s not REALLY a crash yet. I’m still right you know. 45% loss is a stable market and things are turning the corner, prices will jump back up before you know it….”
May 18th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
June 1: Bank Of Canada will increase the overnight lending rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. That’s still insanely low, but it’s a start.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
@Dave.:
Quite right. What dries up is the pool of buyers at inflated prices.
And then what happens?
May 18th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
@Krazy Kanuk:
That’s true, Kanuk, people could spend their money on more worthwhile things, but they don’t. No need to feel empathy for them. It’s their choice.
I always thought that banksters, financial fraudsters and government enablers were behind the housing/credit bubble.
But a lot of people around here say that it’s the emotional first time buyers/fucked borrowers that are driving the market. That could well be.
I certainly don’t feel sorry for their choices, though.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:12 pm
@Purp1: And this is the problem I have with us (the average voter). We have a 2 minute attention span. We all thought it was going to be great….hosting the Olympics…getting rich off real estate. Life is great! No one remembered Montreal, or no one cared. It’s different here. This is VANCOUVER!!! best place on earth.
Somehow, someday, after enough of these stupid decisions are made collectively, the optimist in me thinks we will learn from our mistakes. If the OV turns out fine, it legitimizes these stupid decisions.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Coming to a Condo near you?
http://www.nbcwashington.com/n.....39284.html
May 18th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
@Dave.:
Yes, people will jump in. Lots of them? I think not. That didn’t work so well in the States did it? Meanwhile, Canadians make up the largest % of buyers in Phoenix. How come? Because Americans are way too indebted (and underwater) to consider buying MORE real estate. And the pool will dry up…interest rates will go up, thus eliminating many people from the potential buyers’ scene, and even more people will have to sell because of higher interest rates. I look at 20 year old kids today and think, jeez, when rates are 7%, they are embarking on university educations which will end up costing $30k in student loans, they come out and get a job that pays $50k…how will they buy that house for $700k (and the monthly mortgage payment is $4152, assuming they somehow scraped up a $50k downpayment.) Sure, you can argue that they will just buy a condo, but at even 50% of that amount, most would be hard-pressed to pay the mortgage when rates are 7%. AND, to add to that, if RE prices aren’t skyrocketing, and just flatline (or even drop slightly, as you suggest), people will probably have to think “why should I pay $2000/month for a condo when I can RENT one for half that price? Might as well sit tight and save for a bigger downpayment.” Because the biggest flurry to get into real estate is when prices are going UP, not flatlining. And especially not when it’s dropping.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:08 pm
@Krazy Kanuk: Yes, but remember KK, when she’s about to retire her condo will be worth 1.5 gazillion dollars (Dave, would that be in real or nominal terms?) and then she’ll cash out and travel the world with the help of her windfall.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
@Dave.: “The people who missed a chance at discount prices the first time around will not be so silly as to do it a second time.”
Ha, ha! Wishful thinking. When RE prices collapse, very few people will want to sink hundreds of thousands of dollars into a broken ponzi scheme, even if they can qualify for a mortgage under higher rates and new rules.
Don’t believe me? Just ask an American.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
Purp, the Expo land sale is STILL a fiasco. It hasn’t ended.
May 18th, 2010 at 12:54 pm
Krazy Kanuk — Well, you’re assuming that if we get burned by the OV that that will prevent future debacles. What evidence is there that would be the case? Expo land sale was a fiasco. Montreal 1976 was a fiasco. Fast Ferries ditto. Call me cynical, but I don’t think that the city’s taxpayers having to pony up a few hundred million for the OV is going to be a very good deterrent to future mistakes. Nope, I still want to see Rennie make a killing on those condos. If the city has to pony up that will be another expensive mistake that no one will learn from.