2010 a BC market speedbump
The BC Real Estate Association has generously released to the public their market forecast for the near future so that all investors may partake of their wisdom. As they look ahead, they see a slowdown for 2010 before sales grow again in 2011. Even closer to home this is what they foresee for Vancouver:
For Metro Vancouver, sales are forecast to drop 7.9 per cent this year and rise 4.5 per cent in 2011 to 34,900 units. Prices are expected to increase 10.7 per cent this year in Greater Vancouver to $655,900 and 0.4 per cent in 2011 to $658,800.
For prices across BC the BCREA is predicting a rise of 6% this year and 1% next year. Evidently they use a different brand of Crystal Ball than the Canadian Real Estate Association:
..a survey by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released last week forecast that prices would rise 2.3 per cent this year to $476,900 before slipping back 3.5 per cent in 2011.
The CREA survey also predicted that sales across the province would decrease almost six per cent to 80,000 transactions this year.
Read the full article over at the Vancouver Sun.
June 9th, 2010 at 8:36 am
There are low mortgage rates out there still @ 1.6% – 1.75%
In fact a colleague just got P-0.6 from
http://www.mortgagegrp.com/site/BC/city.asp?cityi…
June 8th, 2010 at 11:32 pm
@Dan in Calgary: I also think the game is over. I am just in disbelief at the number of people who keep making expensive purchases in the face of all the signs that price are headed way down. It is true that RE is a religion for some in this city. It's like rushing towards cliff, with the conviction that you will never fall. Crazy, utterly, incredibly crazy. I am lost for words.
June 8th, 2010 at 10:31 pm
@paulb.:
I have faith…reading the comments from the Housing Bubble Blog they say that there were high sales right before the collapse of the bubble. Why, I don't know. But they say, watch the inventory, then one day the sales will just…stop. And the inventory will continue to climb, sans sales.
Well. We can hope. We're ranked number one for household debt in the developed world. Common sense tells me this can end no other way.
June 8th, 2010 at 10:17 pm
here's the BMO report "In Plain English." Great summary
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Go%2…
June 8th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
I will not be surprised if we have high sales some days or even some months. Where the consensus on this blog is wrong, is that this is going to be like 2008 all over again…it won't. Every major government in the world has demonstrated they will do whatever it takes to not have another liquidity crisis. And they have the resources to prevent it, at least in the short term.
What this is the beginning of is a slow deflating of the bubble. It will likely take as long to deflate as it did to inflate. IMHO watching the daily numbers is an exercise is futility. You must see the forest for the trees.
June 8th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
Anti climactic right about now.
Need some better headlines maybe? Come on bears get in there and root around, there has to be something going on somewhere in this depressing town to encourage the rest of us..
June 8th, 2010 at 9:44 pm
BMO report and US Economy Stats is scary. Will any of us still be employed in the next 5 years.
June 8th, 2010 at 9:37 pm
Bear what we are seeing is realization by buyer that interest rate not going up quick and lots to buy. As I said supply feed demand bear and we see it happening now. We need more listing to bring more buyer into market so as it climb to 20,000 we see beginning of vancouver boom 3
June 8th, 2010 at 9:32 pm
@realpaul:
Shit, and I thought those Shity of Van trucks where picking up cigarette butts!!! LOL
June 8th, 2010 at 9:32 pm
Hey why all the long faces?
Its still 100 net new listings and 190 price reductions. That's not bad at all. You people have just become spoiled. Things are unfolding exactly as they should. Its not like the stock market things move much slower in the real estate market.
At this rate we'll add another 2,000 this month alone. Look for 3% price drops in YVR for June.
McLovin
June 8th, 2010 at 9:08 pm
"The debt to GDP in the US is scheduled to hit 102%, technical bankrupty."
Not necessarily. After the Napoleonic wars in the early 1800s Britain's debt-to-GDP hit 275% yet the country managed to get its finances in order.
Though at this time Britain was a strong proponent of free trade and markets, with an aggressive entrepreneurial DNA. Can we say the same about the modern West, even the USA, considering the examples of Europe and California?
Who knows.
June 8th, 2010 at 9:05 pm
@domus, regarding "Paulb, I am with you in the disbelief about sales", we don't know the prices of the sales, just how many. Perhaps the sellers are VCI readers, formerly bulls but now die-hard bears, who are bailing out at discounted prices. Ah, that's it! The bulls have officially capitulated and are bailing, selling at heavy discounts. The end is here!!!!
June 8th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
Paulb?
Shocked.
Dumus?
Disappointed.
Cameron Muir and Gregory Clumps?
Might have gone to attend some function. nope?
Jake Moldon says what?:
Blah blah blah
Blah blah blah
Robchipman?
Was shocked to publish skyrocketing sales number on timely manners.
Larry says:What?
Blah Blah Blah
Oye Dumbus,Don't say who the heck is buying,Just say who is not buying.
Run Buddy Run.
June 8th, 2010 at 7:56 pm
Paulb, I am with you in the disbelief about sales. Who are these idiots? And don't they fully deserve to lose money? I hope they will never (NEVER!) be bailed out by Canadian taxpayers.
Anyway, any news about the end-of-day inventory figure? 18,600 or thereabouts?
June 8th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
@crashcow:
That's hardcore!
June 8th, 2010 at 6:54 pm
#55 Excellent posting thanks. The conditions are right for rates to skyrocket as literally everyone listed in the report is going to be competing for available cash. There is none available and debts are huge. The debt to GDP in the US is scheduled to hit 102%, technical bankrupty.
June 8th, 2010 at 6:38 pm
BMO turns uber bearish:
"We advocate switching out of equity positions and going to cash. The European sovereign debt crisis appears to be nowhere near over. The global credit environment is worsening. Cost of capital is going up and availability is going down. There are large gaps between where the credit market prices risk and where the equity market is priced. Equity is lagging the deterioration in credit conditions. Moves in currency, equity and commodity markets are mirroring the moves in the credit market. Global growth, in a credit-constrained environment, will slow. Profits will be squeezed by the higher cost of capital…We advocate a zero weight toward equity, and that investors convert their equity positions to cash."
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Go_T…
June 8th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
#24 sp889 , Rarely is there humidity in Honolulu (or any of the islands for that matter) as there is always the Trade Winds. It is much more comfortable than FLA despite the summer temps in the low hundreds. At night we have to hook the doors shut to keep the wind from slamming them shut because of the cross breeze through the building and the natural air con is much nicer the the fake.
And yes, the beaches are not given a daily soaking with fresh shit that the city of Vancshithole spews out into the water every day and night and then gets carried on shore with the tide.
Anyone who has been to Jericho at low tide can see for themselves that the layer of brown slime a foot thick on the shore is not pretty. Yet you see the clueless Vancshitterites playing in the poop anyway. At sunrise every morning the Shitty Trucks run along English Bay and scoop up the crap like its a big fucking cat litter box…what a fun place to play right?
Can I compare the clean beaches of Hawaii to Vancshitholio , not in a moment of drunken idiocy could anyone think that it was OK to swim in the water here. Suzuki's lab found and published that over 90% of the sea life in English Bay have cancerous lesions…yummy. And so good for your dogs and kids too.
Condo's are way cheaper in Honolulu and all the islands for that matter, caveat that the taxes and maintenance fees are high for anyone thinking of going.
Should I remind anyone that Vancouvers hotels have been rated the most bedbug infested of any in North America, some of you maybe forgot…or just choose to look the other way when the advertisers are offering such pretty balloons.
June 8th, 2010 at 5:59 pm
New Listings 295
Price Changes 190
Sold Listings 190
I have to admit I am shocked at the high number of sales still coming in. I guess this market has not rolled over just yet.
June 8th, 2010 at 4:49 pm
@Dr. Bull, Phd: You're absolutely correct, Dr. Bull[shit]! And the reason rich[mond] Asian high school graduates weren't able to prop up the condo market in the summer of 2008 is because there weren't any, right?
June 8th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
June's usually the poster child for high sales in strong markets. That June sales are looking to be lower than May's is not good for prices.
We shouldn't be so surprised that June sales are stronger than 2008, however. Interest rates are still historically low.