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2010 a BC market speedbump

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The BC Real Estate Association has generously released to the public their market forecast for the near future so that all investors may partake of their wisdom. As they look ahead, they see a slowdown for 2010 before sales grow again in 2011. Even closer to home this is what they foresee for Vancouver:

For Metro Vancouver, sales are forecast to drop 7.9 per cent this year and rise 4.5 per cent in 2011 to 34,900 units. Prices are expected to increase 10.7 per cent this year in Greater Vancouver to $655,900 and 0.4 per cent in 2011 to $658,800.

For prices across BC the BCREA is predicting a rise of 6% this year and 1% next year. Evidently they use a different brand of Crystal Ball than the Canadian Real Estate Association:

..a survey by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released last week forecast that prices would rise 2.3 per cent this year to $476,900 before slipping back 3.5 per cent in 2011.

The CREA survey also predicted that sales across the province would decrease almost six per cent to 80,000 transactions this year.

Read the full article over at the Vancouver Sun.

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Anonymous

There are low mortgage rates out there still @ 1.6% – 1.75%

In fact a colleague just got P-0.6 from
http://www.mortgagegrp.com/site/BC/city.asp?cityi…

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domus

@Dan in Calgary: I also think the game is over. I am just in disbelief at the number of people who keep making expensive purchases in the face of all the signs that price are headed way down. It is true that RE is a religion for some in this city. It's like rushing towards cliff, with the conviction that you will never fall. Crazy, utterly, incredibly crazy. I am lost for words.

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Anonymous

@paulb.:

I have faith…reading the comments from the Housing Bubble Blog they say that there were high sales right before the collapse of the bubble. Why, I don't know. But they say, watch the inventory, then one day the sales will just…stop. And the inventory will continue to climb, sans sales.

Well. We can hope. We're ranked number one for household debt in the developed world. Common sense tells me this can end no other way.

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crashcow

here's the BMO report "In Plain English." Great summary

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Go%2…

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Woodrow

I will not be surprised if we have high sales some days or even some months. Where the consensus on this blog is wrong, is that this is going to be like 2008 all over again…it won't. Every major government in the world has demonstrated they will do whatever it takes to not have another liquidity crisis. And they have the resources to prevent it, at least in the short term.

What this is the beginning of is a slow deflating of the bubble. It will likely take as long to deflate as it did to inflate. IMHO watching the daily numbers is an exercise is futility. You must see the forest for the trees.

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huckmeabone

Anti climactic right about now.

Need some better headlines maybe? Come on bears get in there and root around, there has to be something going on somewhere in this depressing town to encourage the rest of us..

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Jeff

BMO report and US Economy Stats is scary. Will any of us still be employed in the next 5 years.

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superboomtime

Bear what we are seeing is realization by buyer that interest rate not going up quick and lots to buy. As I said supply feed demand bear and we see it happening now. We need more listing to bring more buyer into market so as it climb to 20,000 we see beginning of vancouver boom 3

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Chilled

@realpaul:

Shit, and I thought those Shity of Van trucks where picking up cigarette butts!!! LOL

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McLovin

Hey why all the long faces?

Its still 100 net new listings and 190 price reductions. That's not bad at all. You people have just become spoiled. Things are unfolding exactly as they should. Its not like the stock market things move much slower in the real estate market.

At this rate we'll add another 2,000 this month alone. Look for 3% price drops in YVR for June.

McLovin

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chip

"The debt to GDP in the US is scheduled to hit 102%, technical bankrupty."

Not necessarily. After the Napoleonic wars in the early 1800s Britain's debt-to-GDP hit 275% yet the country managed to get its finances in order.

Though at this time Britain was a strong proponent of free trade and markets, with an aggressive entrepreneurial DNA. Can we say the same about the modern West, even the USA, considering the examples of Europe and California?

Who knows.

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Dan in Calgary

@domus, regarding "Paulb, I am with you in the disbelief about sales", we don't know the prices of the sales, just how many. Perhaps the sellers are VCI readers, formerly bulls but now die-hard bears, who are bailing out at discounted prices. Ah, that's it! The bulls have officially capitulated and are bailing, selling at heavy discounts. The end is here!!!!

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Run Buddy Run

Paulb?

Shocked.

Dumus?

Disappointed.

Cameron Muir and Gregory Clumps?

Might have gone to attend some function. nope?

Jake Moldon says what?:

Blah blah blah

Blah blah blah

Robchipman?

Was shocked to publish skyrocketing sales number on timely manners.

Larry says:What?

Blah Blah Blah

Oye Dumbus,Don't say who the heck is buying,Just say who is not buying.

Run Buddy Run.

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domus

Paulb, I am with you in the disbelief about sales. Who are these idiots? And don't they fully deserve to lose money? I hope they will never (NEVER!) be bailed out by Canadian taxpayers.

Anyway, any news about the end-of-day inventory figure? 18,600 or thereabouts?

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paulb.

@crashcow:

That's hardcore!

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realpaul

#55 Excellent posting thanks. The conditions are right for rates to skyrocket as literally everyone listed in the report is going to be competing for available cash. There is none available and debts are huge. The debt to GDP in the US is scheduled to hit 102%, technical bankrupty.

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crashcow

BMO turns uber bearish:

"We advocate switching out of equity positions and going to cash. The European sovereign debt crisis appears to be nowhere near over. The global credit environment is worsening. Cost of capital is going up and availability is going down. There are large gaps between where the credit market prices risk and where the equity market is priced. Equity is lagging the deterioration in credit conditions. Moves in currency, equity and commodity markets are mirroring the moves in the credit market. Global growth, in a credit-constrained environment, will slow. Profits will be squeezed by the higher cost of capital…We advocate a zero weight toward equity, and that investors convert their equity positions to cash."

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Go_T…

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realpaul

#24 sp889 , Rarely is there humidity in Honolulu (or any of the islands for that matter) as there is always the Trade Winds. It is much more comfortable than FLA despite the summer temps in the low hundreds. At night we have to hook the doors shut to keep the wind from slamming them shut because of the cross breeze through the building and the natural air con is much nicer the the fake. And yes, the beaches are not given a daily soaking with fresh shit that the city of Vancshithole spews out into the water every day and night and then gets carried on shore with the tide. Anyone who has been to Jericho at low tide can see for themselves that the layer of brown slime a foot thick on the shore is not pretty. Yet… Read more »

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paulb.

New Listings 295

Price Changes 190

Sold Listings 190

I have to admit I am shocked at the high number of sales still coming in. I guess this market has not rolled over just yet.

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oneangryslav2

@Dr. Bull, Phd: You're absolutely correct, Dr. Bull[shit]! And the reason rich[mond] Asian high school graduates weren't able to prop up the condo market in the summer of 2008 is because there weren't any, right?

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jesse

June's usually the poster child for high sales in strong markets. That June sales are looking to be lower than May's is not good for prices.

We shouldn't be so surprised that June sales are stronger than 2008, however. Interest rates are still historically low.

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Veej

@Dr. Bull, Phd: "The rich Asian graduation affect", now I have heard it all. That truly resembles the last gasps of breath into a dying a bubble. You are Dr. Bull alright… PHD in bullshit, your mom must be so proud. I have another affect for you, I call it "the asians and everyone else will all but stop buying due to a harmonization tax affect" July 1, coming to an assett near you.

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Dr. Bull, Phd

Just wait until the highschool graduate asians from Richmond invade downtown this month to select their graduation gift: a new condo.

Prices will go up this month due to the aisan graduation effect.

And remember, these are not just any asians, they are RICH ASIANS from Hong Kong who moved to richmond because it has "rich" in the name. These guys don't fool around.

Get ready for the boom to resume.

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paulb fan

@LightsOut:

She told me today that there was only 1 sale in all of Surrey last week.

As much as I would like to see it, this simply is not true. Surrey has more than 40 detached sales in a bad week (excluding south surrey). Even in the worst market, I would not expect lower than 20 detached sales in Surrey in any given week.

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paulb.

New Listings 263

Price Changes 168

Sold Listings 159

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