A new word for “bubble”
Over at the LA Times Walter Murch and Lawrence Wechsler make a convincing argument that it’s time to retire the term ‘bubble’ when it comes to speculative excess:
The word “bubble” just has an inescapably happy feel to it, conjuring up kids and parties and sudden iridescent poppings, screams of laughter, the giddy clapping of happy hands and an overall lack of consequence. That was fun; now where’s the cake?
Even more so when the word gets paired with “tulip” or “South Sea.” Where could the harm possibly be in such blithe and fragrant things? Certainly not in the words themselves: exotic petals, swaying grass-skirted maidens, spheres of trembling insubstantiality.
So what do they suggest as a more appropriate term?
What if, instead of that playful word bubble, we tried something a bit more accurately descriptive when growth at any cost became the goal. Say, “tumor”: “the dot-com tumor,” “the subprime tumor,” “the derivatives tumor.”
Would anyone seriously gainsay the highest possible vigilance over the proper functioning of their own body or doubt the need for strong regulation? Who, facing the prospect of a tumorous outbreak or living with a body demonstrably prone to such outbreaks, would entrust that body to a band of physicians blithely committed to laissez faire regarding these fatal bubbles of flesh?
Words matter. Metaphors frame thought. Pay them heed and tend them well.
Read the full editorial over at the LA Times website. The Vancouver housing tumor?
June 16th, 2010 at 1:45 am 1
Would that be "tumour" in Canada?
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June 16th, 2010 at 4:33 am 2
It's not a tumour!
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June 16th, 2010 at 6:54 am 3
I have never liked the word "bubble" to describe the market. Unlike the South Sea "bubble" and Tulip "bubble" there will be buyers of real estate all the way to the bottom and back. It is extremely unlikely that buyers will stop buying and the market will cease to exist and free fall. The credibility of bears hinges on this term. A word, that is intentionally inflammatory and smacks of the tin hat crowd or a MSM headline meant to draw reader's attention. We can have a sharp correction in prices, but contrary to a bubble, the market will not disappear and prices will not free fall to nothingness as in the South Sea and Tulip bubbles.
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June 16th, 2010 at 7:43 am 4
@Gordon C.:
Wait until the market recovers a bit.
we will soon see bears starts groaning again that the bubble is getting worse, the sky is falling.
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June 16th, 2010 at 7:58 am 5
I dont care what we call it.
I'll just call it "that thing where I'll buy a house later for cheaper"
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June 16th, 2010 at 8:14 am 6
Yeah right, by calling it a tumor, poo on a stick, or a fetid blob of congealed bile we'll prevent greedy people from being greedy. I don't think so.
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June 16th, 2010 at 8:30 am 7
@Gordon C.: Prices didn't fall to nothing for tulips. Last I checked they aren't giving them away. Same with tech stocks.
A bubble doesn't mean prices fall to nothing, It simply means people are overpaying based on speculation, and you seem to forget that leverage can make real estate losses much bigger than they would initially appear.
Someone who overpays by a couple hundred thousand for a house can easily lose more than the average dot com bubble investor.
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June 16th, 2010 at 8:32 am 8
I'll stick with 'bubble.' Can't wait for the pop.
Tumor is what I describe some of the bulls on this board.
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June 16th, 2010 at 8:34 am 9
Sad bears, stuck in semantics now. Nothing to talk about. How about go watch FIFA hi definition? Right now is Swiss vs. Spain. Hey Spain has housing tumour too, so there is connection to blog!
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:21 am 10
Currently, we are in a "demand-driven downturn". The increase in listings is directly related to the drop in sales. Later on the market will move to an over supply position or "glut" of listings. And eventually the market place would be dominated by distress sales and become a "foreclosure" market.
Think of yourself as a 30 something just having inked a $600,000 mortgage with a one year term. And the interest rate jumps by 2 percent. You realize that in a little over a year, you won't be able to make your payments. By then the mortgage will be more than the property is worth and the bank wont agree to finance the shortfall if you sell. Later on you will be forced into foreclosure and finally three years later facing personal bankruptcy.
And there is nothing you can do to get off this train.
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:21 am 11
"we are repeatedly soothed by the innocence of the word "bubble" itself. Lulled by language, we're invited to contemplate, with relative equanimity, simply getting to hear that fateful "pop" every so often …"
That's completely absurd. The word "bubble" has historical resonance way beyond the author's fifth birthday party. To anyone with historical awareness it refers to catastrophic economic events. He seems to be arguing that the media should forget teaching history and just use more expressive terminology for contemporary communications.
He's right in that words frame thought. But words come out of history. Since most people are ignorant of history, he figures that everyone should ignore it, and simply use evocative language to promote an agenda. Very typical mindset of the editorial class: We will benevolently tell you what to think in the most evocative terms possible. Anybody think THAT'S likely to end well ?!
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:25 am 12
@Gordon C.: Hot of press, Carney says no rate increase. Bears have to think of new reason why price won't go up like kite to moon.
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:32 am 13
Okay, your boss tells you that you will have to take a pay cut or be layed off.
Your spouse is pregnant.
You break your leg and have to go on workers compensation.
Your tenant moves out.
Your spouse moves out
You get divorced
Your dog needs a $10,000 operation.
You get fired.
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:35 am 14
@SuperSmartBull
I thought they weren't supposed to hike it June 1 either?
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:41 am 15
Well folks, it's all over except for the crying:
'Life in the fast lane is over for Canada’s housing market.'
—BMO economist Doug Porter
May sales are down 9.5% from April. Expect sales to further decline from here.
From the CBC:
http://tinyurl.com/2an3c7r
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:51 am 16
@SuperSmartBull: Now we know, SuperSmartBull is Kite to Moon.
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:53 am 17
@KWL: The CBC article kind of reminds me of the end of the Monty Python movie "Life of Brian" – where they're all crucified but singing "Always look on the bright side of life".
"When you're feeling jolly rotten,
there's something you've forgotten,
and that's to laugh and dance and smile and sing…"
(All together now)
"Always look on the bright side of life!"
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:56 am 18
Right, its just like the oil gushing out of the Gulf well is a 'spill' and a 'leak'. Is it the media's job to serve the advertisers best interests?
1)There is an 'acceptable' level of 'coliform' on Vancouver beaches. Shouldn't that be 'there is a huge amount..like 800 million liters a day of raw sewage flushed everyday into the harbour. I guess that would sell as well as 'acceptable or coliform'.
2) Inshore fisheries are harvesting spotted shrimp and dungeness crabs. Didn't the UBC study just determine that 90% of the sealife in English Bay have cancerous lesions. I guess that would sell too well on the menu.
3)Demand drive downturn should read …banks caught churning taxpayers money and the optics on Parliament Hill were beginning to fog up the Cons vision of a majority government.
4) It is certainly ill described to read the RE market as a bubble. In fact its a full blown crisis for the government who has been caught flatfooted spending billions on a stimulus plan that is rolling over and is bound to produce as many casulaties as short term headlines about the phony recovery. Carney talking about controlling intrest rates is like a three year old talking about going to the park. Its sounds nice but its not him that has the keys to the car. When the global markets turn and rates are pushed higher there isn't a damn thing Carney can do or say to change that.
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June 16th, 2010 at 10:10 am 19
Kijiji has apartment rentals. 1 bedroom in Sewery ..sorry Surrey at 690 p/m. Seems like prices are becoming more realistic. Is it competition kicking in????
http://vancouver.kijiji.ca/c-housing-apartments-f…
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June 16th, 2010 at 10:13 am 20
@SuperSmartBull:
Won't stop mortgage rates from increasing. As long as the economy stays weak and prices flatten or drop, the spread will grow.
Only two scenarios are possible:
1. Market and economy stay weak, unemployment stays high, so rates stay low but prices decline.
2. Economy improves, rates go up, and prices decline.
Kind of nice, isn't it?
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June 16th, 2010 at 10:46 am 21
Even if price drops by 50%, the bears here will only "CELEBRATE" !
They don't know when to buy, anyway.
Let them have fun partying with the numbers
LOL
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June 16th, 2010 at 11:14 am 22
@Alum:
Well, it seems that one bull at least has moved on to what is now only the question in the Vancouver Real Estate market: is it good to buy after the comming 50% drop or is it worth holding out for 60% or even 70%?
I'm glad to see that bulls are waking up to the fact that prices are dropping.
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June 16th, 2010 at 11:16 am 23
@specialfx3000:
"Can’t wait for the pop."
The pop is already here. We just had a 5% drop in month over month average price for the detatched house and price drops in most categories in most municipalities.
This is how a collapse begins.
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June 16th, 2010 at 11:21 am 24
Can anyone provide substantive, if not authoritative, comments on whether banks will renew mortgages for homes that are underwater? I think a lot of bears are counting on this but I don't see it happening. Since 2008, some of the big five have been giving interest only mortgage relief to people on their mortgages (I read that RCBC gave 30,000 homeowners relief last year).
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June 16th, 2010 at 11:32 am 25
@Seeking the Truth: Think like a bank. Why do they care if you are underwater, they just want their money back with interest. As long as you keep paying, no problem. Only when you stop paying then time to start expensive foreclosure.
Just like and your landlord, as long as you keep paying rent, no problem.
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June 16th, 2010 at 11:40 am 26
@Seeking the Truth:
Since CMHC guarantees that they will get their principal back, why not? The reason they loaned you the money is because they want you to pay them every month. Keep doing that and they're happy. What would it matter to them even if the house became worthless?
CMHC insurance is good for the entire amortization period of the original mortgage, and it is not conditional on the market price of the property at any time after purchase.
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June 16th, 2010 at 11:43 am 27
@Seeking the Truth:
People that are underwater are likely covered by CMHC, so the banks don't care unless it looks like they could lose their own money.
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June 16th, 2010 at 11:51 am 28
@VRENGD:
What if they go up another 10% next year?
regardless of what happens, bears have an excuse to party.
if prices go up -> party coz "bubble" is inflating
if prices go down -> party coz "bubble" is deflating
I like to live in a party town !
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June 16th, 2010 at 11:53 am 29
See Spain's housing bubble didn't help them, they still lost to Switzerland in FIFA where there is no bubble. Coincidence? I don't think so. FIFA can be very good predictor of housing market. Bears please no thanks required for giving you new tool to cry wolf.
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June 16th, 2010 at 11:59 am 30
@Alum:
Alump = a tumor. Coincidence? I think not.
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June 16th, 2010 at 12:05 pm 31
Update on price drops in our neighborhood. Across from the 'eyebrow' house I posted last week (which looks like it finally sold) there's this beauty (V827379) listed at $639K a month ago and now dropped to $619K.
There's also this beauty, listed at $549K ages ago, then went up to $565K (too much demand I guess). Fast foward 3 months and now back to $549K and still there.
There's a new 'teardown' listed 4 houses down starting at $578K. What are these people thinking? Do they not look at comps before setting a price?
Gut feel is prices are starting to slip in this part of town, especially for less than stellar properties.
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June 16th, 2010 at 12:14 pm 32
@SuperSmartBull:
Do banks even do any independent valuation of a property before lending the money? I don't think they do. If that's the case, how are they in a position to judge whether or not a home is underwater?
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June 16th, 2010 at 12:38 pm 33
@Purp1: What is "your part of town?" I'm curious as my sister has just put her house on the market. Her real estate agent suggested a listing price that was about 50K less than comparative sale prices from about a month ago. My sis demanded that the house be listed for about 10k less than the most recent comparable sale. This is in Coquitlam.
I find it interesting, given that my sis believes that the market is going to tank, while her real estate agent thinks it won't. So why is he suggesting a listing price so much lower than recent comps? Doesn't make sense. My sis is aware of the nature of the current market and will be very careful about dismissing any offers out of hand. I think she's hoping for an offer somewhere at the mid-point of the listing price and the real estate agent's preferred listing price.
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June 16th, 2010 at 12:43 pm 34
@SuperSmartBull: no thanks required…
I know, your mother told me the same thing last night.
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June 16th, 2010 at 12:45 pm 35
@oneangryslav2: We're in East Van but moving soon as we sold and are renting in Burnaby.
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June 16th, 2010 at 12:53 pm 36
Bear prices are sticky like fingers after dim sum meal. Reason is no one want to sell lose money. Why do that when can stay in house in best place on earth? So what could happen? No one know for sure but 2008 scenario is forming which means 2011 will be the start of Vancouver Boom 3.
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June 16th, 2010 at 12:56 pm 37
@oneangryslav2: "What is your part of town?”
They gave an MLS number to something in their area. It's not hard.
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June 16th, 2010 at 1:09 pm 38
@superduperbulltime:
You can do that by renting AND staying in so called "the best place on earth". Most people would rather do that than watching their equity shrink every month and possibly go under water.
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June 16th, 2010 at 1:43 pm 39
@oneangryslav2: He wants to list it low so he can sell it fast. He doesn't care about your sister or where the market is going….he just wants some MONEY
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June 16th, 2010 at 1:45 pm 40
oh yeah Nutslaps! Uruguay 3-0 over S.Africa. Uruguay ready for next leg up in RE market. Nice weather, good coffee, everybody wants to live there.
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June 16th, 2010 at 1:53 pm 41
"There’s also this beauty, listed at $549K ages ago, then went up to $565K (too much demand I guess). Fast foward 3 months and now back to $549K and still there."
I love it when Realturds do this. Do they really think that someone who is sitting on the sidelines contemplating buying the property will suddenly say "WOW, I must buy it they raised the price and will continue to do so" "I have to act or be priced out FOREVER!"
Has this ridiclous tactic ever worked?
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June 16th, 2010 at 1:53 pm 42
Housing market a 'time bomb', says investment legend
June 16, 2010 Katherine Jimenez The Australian
THE Australian and British housing markets are the last two bubbles left in the wake of the financial crisis, and it is only a matter of time before they crash, warns legendary US investor and co-founder of global investment management firm GMO, Jeremy Grantham.
Mr Grantham famously reported a year before the global financial crisis: "In five years, I expect that at least one major bank (broadly defined) will have failed and that up to half the hedge funds and a substantial percentage of the private equity firms in existence today will have simply ceased to exist".
He said yesterday that Australia had an unmistakable housing bubble and that prices would need to come down by 42 per cent to return to the long-term trend.
"You cannot possibly miss it," he said.
"The price of housing typically trades about 3.5 times of family income and in bubble it goes to 6 or . . . 7.5 (times).
"Australia is having one now. You are at near 7.5 times family income . . . which suggests you are twice the size that you should be."
GMO is one of the biggest investment management firms in the world, with about $106 billion in funds under management, and is considered to be an authority on asset bubbles.
Mr Grantham, who is in Australia to meet with GMO clients in Sydney and Melbourne this week, said any bubble could be an exception to the rule.
"Bubbles have quite a few things in common but housing bubbles have a spectacular thing in common, and that is every one of them is considered unique and different," he said.
As an example, he cited the British housing market bubble of 1989. At the time, he said people dismissed the bubble because there was no more rezoning, creating a land shortage and as such, they believed prices would rise forever.
"Seven years later, in 1997, they hit the lowest multiple of family income since the record books started in 1945. It's always the same old argument, they are not making any more land."
In Australia's case, Mr Grantham described the housing market as a "time bomb" just waiting for interest rates to increase and become impossible to support.
Since last October, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the official cash rate six times. The rate is now 4.5 per cent.
If the Australian housing market did not return to the normal multiple of family income, he said "it will be the first time in history."
"Sooner or later, the rates will go up and the game is over."
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June 16th, 2010 at 1:55 pm 43
Apt comparison – cancer, like this speculative market, draws resources and starves other areas of those resources. Cancer is also indiscriminate – similar to the price compression that happens in a market where value is rapidly shifting, where crackshacks are available at mansion pricing.
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June 16th, 2010 at 2:14 pm 44
@rf: Mister Grantham sounds like a bitter renter and from where I sit, I don't think he's very happy with his life, what with wishing others financial ruin.
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June 16th, 2010 at 2:22 pm 45
Call it what you like, but it's nothing more than a PONZI SCHEME to me.
The ones who have been driving up prices are the ones who expect a greater fool to come along and drive them up even more.
Besides, bubbles make me think of Don Ho.
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June 16th, 2010 at 2:22 pm 46
New Listings 156
Price Changes 106
Sold Listings 75
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June 16th, 2010 at 2:49 pm 47
@Best place on meth:
A pure Ponzi scheme exists when the holdings of "investors" do not have any intrinsic value, i.e. are just book entries. For example, Madoff's scheme or of course the original Ponzi's scheme. Return to participants comes only from new participants.
Asset bubbles are partial Ponzi schemes in that the holdings do have intrinsic value but the prices are inflated. The assets have a return (rental value in the case of RE) but it's below the cost of borrowing money, so expected total returns come from selling to a greater fool at a higher price. That component is a Ponzi scheme which is why all asset bubbles fail and the price returns to fundamental value.
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June 16th, 2010 at 3:15 pm 48
@paulb.:
It seems like the trend is that new listings are falling back and sales holding up better. Sales to new listing ratios seem to be right in the middle of balanced territory.
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June 16th, 2010 at 3:39 pm 49
@Dave:
And yet MOI continues upward like kite toward moon.
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June 16th, 2010 at 3:48 pm 50
Apparently Joe Average in Asia has all the same concerns as people here do. Its an 'all over bubble' all right.
http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/
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June 16th, 2010 at 3:54 pm 51
@oneangryslav2: I don't see anything about him "wishing" anything upon anyone. He just states a set of historical facts.
'Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it'.
'History may not repeat itself, but it tends to rhyme'
-Mark Twain
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June 16th, 2010 at 4:06 pm 52
nothing see here.
move along…move along
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/realestate/article/8…
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June 16th, 2010 at 4:40 pm 53
"Asian Nations Impose Curbs to Slow Expanding Property Bubbles"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&a…
The International Monetary Fund has cautioned that Asia’s booming home prices “pose risks to financial stability.” Governments in the region are turning to market curbs rather than raising interest rates — at 20-year lows in some places — in an effort to avert a U.S.-style property crash. While real estate prices have yet to respond, equity investors have: a Bloomberg index of 192 Asia-Pacific real estate stocks has lost 15 percent in 2010 versus a 1.5 percent gain for its U.S. peer.
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June 16th, 2010 at 4:41 pm 54
@Dave: When did you have your lobotomy? Was it painful?
Do you notice any other significant changes in your life since the procedure other than your incredible ignorance?
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June 16th, 2010 at 4:43 pm 55
New Listings 241
Price Changes 160
Sold Listings 140
18,775
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June 16th, 2010 at 5:02 pm 56
Bear I made new blog for bear in Vancouver it's called forenter.com. Everyday I post story from bear about how great life is in their moldy basement. Only comment that proclaim bear lifestyle to be good will be allowed. I could make a few hundred per month on adsense easy with so many forenter bear. I think there is endless forenting bear supply so business will be profitable long term.
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June 16th, 2010 at 5:03 pm 57
@paulb.: Inventory down relative to yesterday? Midmonth expiries?
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June 16th, 2010 at 5:09 pm 58
Superbullcrap,
when was the last time you could afford cherrys? How much did maintenance fees go up this year? Any assessments coming this fall? LOL Frustrating, I know… there are people who are free, who travel, go out, don't have to watch every penny they spend, and there are "owe-ners" – realturd landlord wannabees…
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June 16th, 2010 at 5:25 pm 59
Let's not feed the trolls. It's full evident that the trolls have nothing intelligent to say. All we hear is his brain farts.
Looks like he's in need of medication to his Attention Deficit Syndrome – probably he can't afford it either with his high mortgage payments.
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June 16th, 2010 at 5:31 pm 60
Nicely sad, Raz.
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June 16th, 2010 at 5:40 pm 61
@Gordon C.:
Gordon C. Says:
June 16th, 2010 at 9:32 am
Okay, your boss tells you that you will have to take a pay cut or be layed off.
Your spouse is pregnant.
You break your leg and have to go on workers compensation.
Your tenant moves out.
Your spouse moves out
You get divorced
Your dog needs a $10,000 operation.
You get fired.
+++++++++++++++++++++
You just wrote my memoir.
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June 16th, 2010 at 5:58 pm 62
Why can't everyone else see that this superduperbulltime is just a guy with way to much time on his hands trying to be funny (it was the first few posts but not anymore dude). Just ignore him and he will eventually go away and find something else pointless to do with his existence.
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June 16th, 2010 at 6:22 pm 63
@domus: I think I meant 18875. I'll update later.
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June 16th, 2010 at 6:22 pm 64
HST and July's interest rate hike looming. This is going to get ugly fast…..can't wait.
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June 16th, 2010 at 6:28 pm 65
Yet another net 100. This is like clockwork.
19K by Friday after work!
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June 16th, 2010 at 6:33 pm 66
@Raz:
When the worthless cheerleaders post I just hear vuvuzelas.
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June 16th, 2010 at 6:59 pm 67
@Paulb.: Nope was 18775. Where are the sellers ?
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June 16th, 2010 at 7:17 pm 68
I think cancer is a perfect analogy since most of you will probably die of it at an early age since you live in 1970s apartment blocks full of carcinogenic building materials. Enjoy what's left of your life!
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June 16th, 2010 at 7:31 pm 69
Pope: Thanks for the 'tumour' article, great link.
Some commenters suggested that the word 'bubble' already has enough negative connotations. You can argue that is only true of the minority of the public that is educated with regard to financial matters. Most citizens don't really understand the 'bubble' process, or why 'bubbles' are bad. (Especially when they're in the middle of one.)
Suggesting we use a term like 'tumour' to describe them is a very good idea. Why didn't we think of that before?
A tumour's growth outstrips that which the organism can maintain, it misallocates the whole body's resources, and unless it is cut-out/curbed, it can destroy its host. Very good metaphor; with appropriately dreadful connotations.
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June 16th, 2010 at 7:48 pm 70
I fear that people's faith in real estate might be so great that switching tumour for bubble might lead them to believe that cancer is actually beneficial.
I vote for "mania". This seems to me like the most accurate way of describing what a bubble really is.
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June 16th, 2010 at 8:10 pm 71
Our favorite laneway "home" is still up for grabs.
Not sure whey they put in 2 ads for the same place yesterday at 2 different prices though.
And the square footage has somehow increased.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1793470…
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1794157…
Something douchy going on here.
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June 16th, 2010 at 8:14 pm 72
@Best place on meth
Story today
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/…
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June 16th, 2010 at 8:20 pm 73
@4Slicesofcheese:
That one is bigger and it's in East Van. But it also says it's the "first of it's kind".
Hey…what's going on here?
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June 16th, 2010 at 8:58 pm 74
@vibe: Mania is nice but not actually descriptive…..my suggestion is "boil"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boil
If not perfect then abscess
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abscess
I especially like the description of real-tors that would be "pus"
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:24 pm 75
@Best place on meth:
It's probably one of those "send the deposit to PO Box Africa and we will mail the keys" double douche like deals.
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:24 pm 76
@4Slicesofcheese: From your link: "Lanefab says the homes cost between $160,000 and $220,000 to build, and can be rented out for between $1,100 and $2,200 depending on the size of the unit."
So… that's a price/rent of about 120 or so on construction costs alone. Not bad… if the land is free
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:35 pm 77
@Best place on meth:
Nice! I wonder if that place will ever be rented. I just signed a lease on a 2 bed, 2 bath 900 plus square feet in Vancouver. How much? A few hundred less than $1550! Oh, but I forgot, my new place is not "IN THE WEST" Apparently I'm supposed to sacrifice an extra washroom, another bedroom, oh AND a parking spot for that. What was I thinking??
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:35 pm 78
@Best place on meth: But… but… I thought there were going to be so many people lining up to rent at the open house that application forms would have to be handed out on a first come first served basis?
I wonder if the landlords to be are shocked that everyone else in Vancouver isn't as clueless as they are?
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June 16th, 2010 at 9:38 pm 79
@Anonymous: Yeah but was your place the show home hidden in the back corner of David Lam Park? Does the front door open onto a filthy alley? Does your landlord have a parking stall in your house? I didn't think so…
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June 17th, 2010 at 10:33 am 80
@Paulb.:
The sellers are staying put. If sellers don't get the prices they want, then they will pull their listings. Some of those people might try again after the summer, but the current trend seems to be a levelling off of listings.
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