BC drags down national forecast
Ladies and gentlemen, please bear with us for a moment, we seem to be experiencing technical difficulties with the Crystal-rear-view-mirror ball. For whatever reason it appears that BC house prices have not continued their ever upward climb to the stars. This temporary setback has caused the CREA to readjust the national forecast in a downward direction.
Here is a CBC news video about the local Vancouver market ‘cooling’. It features many pretty faces such as Cameron Muir, Jake Moldowan and Larry Yatkowsky.
Thanks to Anonymous and Jesse for the links!
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November 14th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
Here is a chart worth a boo. Especially concerning when you consider how many second and third homes most Boomers have sitting vacant.
https://sites.google.com/site/canadianhousingdemographics/
August 31st, 2010 at 1:15 am
Once you have decided to buy your first house your goal is not only to find the best rates but also to find the best mortgage to suit your circumstances and plans for the future. It is a good idea to sit down and write out your plans especially if you are planning to buy the house with a friend or partner.
August 31st, 2010 at 12:57 am
Hair growth is not constant for everyone and also does vary from person to person. There are different times in your life when you lose hair naturally and also when hair grows fast. You can use oils, shampoos and even conditioners that are made out of natural elements. Products for natural hair care are the right thing to go in for if you want to preserve your natural hair growth.
August 5th, 2010 at 6:16 am
Good Post
June 4th, 2010 at 10:35 am
Thx for sharing the links and generating a great discussion! Keeping fingers crossed for BC housing.
June 4th, 2010 at 3:22 am
@Superfly:
Like many others, you are forgetting to include the difference between ownership costs (mortgage, taxes, strata fees, insurance) and the cost of renting an equivalent property over the period of ownership. For a 2005 purchase, that would probably amount to around $50K today on a present value basis. If he’s sells today he barely does better than breaking even. And today’s prices won’t be around tomorrow.
June 4th, 2010 at 1:17 am
@Chilled: Look at his face and that fucking smile, guy is apparently paying for some nasty sex and thinks business should work the same way.
June 4th, 2010 at 1:10 am
@Anonymous: Many of these people will come to the GVRD and will need a place to live…
How about the work? Are they going to need to work somewhere too or all will be flipping condos perhaps?
June 4th, 2010 at 12:26 am
Anonymouse,
True. At 4:1 leverage (25% down) it works out to 8% annual gain. A 10% drop in the property price still brings it back to zero though.
June 4th, 2010 at 12:08 am
Pope
I agree ever since the roller coaster was added the site is really slow.
June 4th, 2010 at 12:07 am
June average dailes so far:
Sales: 148
Listings: 299
In June 2009:
Sales: 195
Listings: 238
In June 2008:
Sales: 119
Listings: 315
Note that in 2009, the MAX listings for any day in June was 289. Each of the three days in June so far this year has exceeded this max level.
June 3rd, 2010 at 11:47 pm
Pope:
sorry to be a pain, but want to let you know that using the site is becoming increasingly difficult. It takes on average 20 to 30 seconds to try and load a full page of comments like this thread. And 1 in 2 times (especially when the thread is long) the download is interrupted before being completed.
I love the forum, and appreciate your work, but this must be the least pleasant blog to navigate among the few I occasionally visit.
It is heavy and slow.
June 3rd, 2010 at 11:19 pm
:Vancouver has been consistently voted in the top 5 best cities in the world to live for the last few years”
Who votes in these studies? Members of the BCREA and Bob Rennie? Believe me, if I wanted I could find a study that would find that Anonymouse is the smartest person alive.
Vancouver does not belong in the same sentence as Hong Kong, Paris London, New York. Al those cities are major financial and political centres. Vancouver is a third tier city at best. We’re not even the highest profile city in our own country, fer cryin out loud. Toronto is.
June 3rd, 2010 at 11:05 pm
from the article from the Sun …
‘ Vancouver has been consistently voted in the top 5 best cities in the world to live for the last few years. Our real estate is a bargain compared to London, France, New York, most of Japan, Hong Kong and many other big cities of the world. There is only so much land in the lower mainland.
“Statistics Canada predicts the population in B.C. will jump from the current 4.5 million, to as high as 7.1 million by 2036.”
Many of these people will come to the GVRD and will need a place to live. They all have to live somewhere and many of them will be buying their place not renting.
Don’t believe that there will be too much of a correction for too long…..unless of course the world does slip into another depression as predicted by 1:55 below. ‘
We’re a bargain compared to London, France, New York, Japan, and HK?????
You can buy a detached house in New York for less than a shoebox in the sky … I bet that person hasn’t even been to those places.
June 3rd, 2010 at 10:58 pm
@Superfly:
“Total gain $60K or 10% or 2% per year over 5 years! ”
You are calculating the rate of return on the total value of the house. The actual rate of return would need to be calculated on the cash that the homeowner put into the house (i.e. the initial downpayment plus capital outlays and other negative cashflow). So his actual rate of return may be substantially higher. This is the power of leverage (on the way up at least)
However you make a good point about something that I frequently rant about. Which is that many people overstate the gains they have made on RE. People will often say “I bought it for $300k and sold it for $400k” thus giving the impression they have pocketed $100k. They forget to account for the following:
- Excess of interest + prop tax + condo fees in excess of the rent they would have paid for a similar property.
- Maintenance costs
- Closing costs for acquisition
- Closing costs on selling
- Realtor fees on selling
- Renovations
- Special assessments
- Opportunity cost of cash invested in the property vs. what could be earned in another investment.
- Taxes on the gain (if investment property)
The real gains are not quite what people will lead you to believe. But of course every real estate investor has a bit of Bob Rennie in them so they will conveniently forget to mention all cash outlays so everyone can be jealous of the money they supposedly made. I always take everyone’s “I sold it for x and made y” stories with a grain of salt.
June 3rd, 2010 at 10:30 pm
Oneangryslav:
A friend bought an attached property on the North Shore in 2005 for $520K. Comps now selling for $680K. Subtracting $30K for upgrades, $50K special assessment and $20K realtor fee nets $580K.
What was the special assessment for?
New roof. Complex is 20 years old.
June 3rd, 2010 at 9:50 pm
@VHB:
More wealthy Chinese officials will divert their hidden money to Vancouver for sure,and it will in turn ensure a healthy and solid Van RE for future decades .
June 3rd, 2010 at 9:38 pm
Check out the WSJ/CR on China: It’s over, dudes.
“The housing market in many—though not all—Chinese cities seems to have nearly ground to a halt after the government moves. On average, the number of residential property transactions in the four weeks after the restrictions were announced is down 40% compared with the four weeks before the measures, according to figures covering 24 major cities from real-estate consultancy Soufun.com. ”
Folks, this is in the WSJ, not some crazy blog. China’s property bubble is done.
Any impact on Vancouver?
June 3rd, 2010 at 9:25 pm
What’s the current inventory?
June 3rd, 2010 at 9:24 pm
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....25803.html
Hurry dear, lets pay $200K more than the place will be worth in 2yrs so we can get that gift card!!!!!!
How low with they go? What an industry.
June 3rd, 2010 at 9:14 pm
One of my former colleagues called HGTV the “Real Estate Porn Channel” — setting up newlyweds for a lifetime of unrealistic expectations.
June 3rd, 2010 at 9:11 pm
If you think that being a landlord is easy, here’s some perspective from a professional landlord. As Apu would say, “Being a landlord is easy not always.”
Negotiating 101 – Landlord Edition
June 3rd, 2010 at 9:09 pm
@Strataman
I’ve seen those types of shows before. Not this one. It’s about maybe 20 minutes of fluffy feel good real estate porn? Do you really think they have time for INFORMATION? How much did they even show of the people? Aren’t they usually doing voiceovers and b-roll footage? I’m betting anything informative ended up on the cutting room floor (like any good interview). Did they say any of the addresses?
I think the only HGTV show I’ve ever seen with info comes from Mike Holmes… and then only because I catch him breifly mention something and then I have to google it.
June 3rd, 2010 at 8:46 pm
@Love HGTV: Have to agree with you just watched it! Will emphasized low maintenance fees without once elaborating…for instance that maintenance fees on new units are subsidized heavily by the developer, and will increase exponentially once the building is turned over to the strata. No effort on the part of the Realtor to inform the client as to the terrific washer and dryers at the entrance as to the chances that they would work incredibly inefficiently taking up to THREE times the hydro the same washer and dryer in a properly designed place would use. (In 501 the dryer ducts are contorted with multiple bends and will take three times as long to dry). Nope your average buyer is dumber then a toadstool! Unbelievable that a real estate agent can make more than $500.00 bucks on a sale because that is the total value of their expertise!
June 3rd, 2010 at 8:35 pm
@Anonymous: Granite and stainless are to this boom what shag carpeting and avocado and harvest gold appliances were to the 70s.
June 3rd, 2010 at 8:16 pm
@Love HGTV:
I think the last thing the buyer said was quite educational: “Granite counter”.
Yeah, what else do we need?