Friday Free-for-all!

It’s not just death and taxes that are inevitable. Eventually the weekend will arrive, the sun may come out and we’ll do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic economic discussion thread! Welcome to the Free-for-all, here are a few stories I’ve noticed lately:

-Leaky condo program ending (they took our photo)
-Should first time buyers buy now or wait?
-Condo couple unhappy with $17,000 in yappy dog fines
-G20 the new Canadian sublet rental goldmine
-No more BC public service layoffs
-RBC predicts massive economic surge
-Consumer confidence dips in May
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

288 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”

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    Vancouver2010Meltdow Says:
    1

    Hey Bulls, let's play the Vancouver Real Estate game again!

    Give me a B

    Give me an A

    Give me an N

    Give me a K

    Give me an R

    Give me a U

    Give me a P

    Give me a T

    What will Bulls be by the end of this year?

    BANKRUPT

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    LightsOut Says:
    2

    Second wave down in US housing coming.

    http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=New

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    Anonymous Says:
    3

    @paulb & inventory:

    Much appreciation for your continued effort to post the daily listings/changes/sales numbers.

    It's been a very interesting watch these last few months.

    Thanks again.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    4

    I'm curious about the folks who got caught up in bidding wars earlier this year. Do they still believe that paying 50k – 100k over-ask was a wise move?

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    5

    @Anonymous:

    Do they (recent buyers) still believe that paying 50k – 100k over-ask was a wise move?

    Sure. Do you think someone who's that out of touch is going to clue in that quickly?

    As I recall polling indicated that as late as 2007 most Americans thought that house prices were still going up.

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    raggedyrenter Says:
    6

    more china money theory:
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/brit

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    The strongish sales data that we are seeing may be the effect of prices softening for the first time since the last run up. I must admit that this last blow off phase caught me by surprise. This softening can be viewed like a 10 cent drop in the price of gas. Everyone would rush into the gas stations to fill up as there is a gas war on. However over the next days, weeks, months, if prices do not go back up but continue falling then people will stop rushing to fill up every time the price drops.

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    #7 Dyugle,

    I agree 100%. Many people who have been shopping saw the first drops in price as a signal to buy. We are coming off of many months of a very hot market. No question many recent buyers think they got a deal because they are comparing prices from a month or two ago.

    This is just the first leg in the cycle. We also forget that there are many people who feel they have to buy for various reasons. I also think many of us who frequent blogs like this expect the general public to be more educated on these issues. They are not. It will still take many months and several legs down for it all to sink in.

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    swirlyman Says:
    9

    All this ignorance/willful denial regarding Canada's (particularly Vancouver's) housing bubble that we see around us just goes to show that Canadians can be just as insular as Americans.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @raggedyrenter: "more china money theory"

    That's no theory. It's a bunch of anecdotes from commissioned salesmen who have every interest in convincing us real estate is a can't lose bet.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    11

    @jesse:

    Note they're even trying to convince people that Mainland Chinese are going to save the market in Kelowna, which is Canada's Cape Coral or Phoenix.

    What a joke.

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    superduperbulltime Says:
    12

    Bear keep denying it but sales taking off for good reason. Economy taking off like bacon brother after drive by. Interest rate low. Jobs coming back. Lumber sale up. Everyone happy again. Time to buy condo. Or if bear it's time to cry in pillow again tonight.

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    White Payer Says:
    13

    @swirlyman:

    Is insular an euphemism for dumb as a doornail?

    I think most canadians and especially british columbians are just plain stupid, that's all. Thank god for new immigrants, or our universities would be empty otherwise… Sadly it doesn't take long for those guys to get infected with ignorance too – it must be highly contiguous around here.

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    Mattymatt Says:
    14

    hahaha…"Economy taking off like bacon brother after drive by." superduperbulltime, that was good, time will tell! But in Reality, when I invest my money, I expect it to double in 7 to 10 years. I don’t believe home prices will double in that amount of time from where they are right now! Bad investment! With interest rates on the rise, wise investors will find better opportunities to put their money other than real estate. Leave the down turning market to the first time home buyers.

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    specialfx3000 Says:
    15

    @White Payer:

    You mean the same new immigrants that come here to buy over-inflated real estate or their kids who are more concerned with driving fast cars and drinking bubble tea than attending class?

    They come here infected already.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    16

    Ole ole ole! Real estate not blow up like Wayne Rooney or fall down like Italians. Only going up to cup. The best game on earth meet best place on earth!

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    Anonymous Says:
    17

    @Junius:

    I haven't seen anyone clarrify, if the mortgage changes from April do not effect mortgage approvals before that date. We were all expecting sales to lower, because of these changes. It seems the market could still be riding on those pre approvals, but if anyone could clarrify that, it would be much appreciated.

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    @patriotz:

    I agree. I have met many a Chinese immigrant or 2nd Gen'r that have yet to go beyond the Fraser Valley. Kelowna and the interior of BC isn't really on their radar. I don't have the stats, but I doubt that demographic is anywhere near significant. The only substantial external money pumped into the Okanagan is from Alberta and Saskatchewan. And that money is down to a third of what is was 2 years ago.

    The amazing thing to me is how prices in the Okanagan are sticky on the upside. Inventory is high, sales are low and external money has plummeted. There are lots of new developments with inventory and lots of land ready to get developed. Yet, prices are still holding. So here is a question for bears… if not there, then why here?

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    realpaul Says:
    19

    Gordon Campbell admits tha HST is nothing but a cash grab for a government that can't rationalize it's own expenses. Blames 'plumetting revenue', can't wake up to the fact the spending like a drunken sailor is the biggest part of the problem. Thus BOZO's gotta go…..fast.. REEEEEEEEEE CAAAAAAALLLL.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Campbell+tells

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    Pre-approvals mean nothing. People still have to qualify under the new rules these days regardless.

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    specialfx3000 Says:
    21

    What is the baseline for the C.U.L.T.? Is there a graph to show the trend somewhere? 557 with a green arrow. Good? Great? SoSo? I can't tell.

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    Mold City Says:
    22

    @raggedyrenter: Wow, that's a particularly bad article. The title is 'pours wealth into BC', but the first sentence is

    "As Vancouver’s once hot real estate market hits the skids, a rush of buyers from China may help the city sidestep a sharp correction in prices.

    The article is filled with "may" and "could" qualifiers, has absolutely no data and oddly enough refers to Kelowna where "condo king" Rennie has just said luxury product is not moving anymore. I'm surprised they even mention Kelowna considering the fact that brand new condos have been sitting on the market at 40% off!
    http://somethinghaschangedatinvue.com

    They desperately need those foreign buyers there. Good luck with those anecdotes realtors, don't think it's going to be enough to avert the crash.

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    Vulture Fun Says:
    23

    Alderside Road in Port Moody is on my running route, so I'm keeping tabs on 948 Alderside. Listed on April 1, 2010 (Greater Fools' Day?) for $1,550,000, now yours for the low low price of $1,300,000. Photos worthy of The Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous reveal "bleen" paint, a CRT "classic" TV, and a galley-style kitchen without dishwasher. Caviar dreams, everyone!

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    Absinthe Says:
    24

    @Dave: From the data I'm looking at, prices on SFH are down 19% YoY in Kelowna; it seems like a pretty normal declining market to me, when compared to all the American cities I've been watching. Vancouver's rapid percentage decline in 2008 was an anomaly amongst declining markets, and I don't think we should expect it.

    Prices ARE sticky on the way down – VHB used to discuss the reasons people are forced to sell: death, divorce, and transfer – and Freako would point out the stickiness of prices. When the States' bubble popped, prices didn't correct overnight. Heck, post tax rebate, they're beginning to slide again. Japan's been declining over 15 years.

    I don't see anything bizarre happening in the Okanagan.

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    anonymous Says:
    25

    Foreign buyers…ya right. Kelowna is so lacking in Asians that the best they could do was scrape up someone who's been in Canada ten years already. And all she could provide was some lame "uh, I sort of think, um, people from China are coming here. Ya, that's right." Try going to the mall on a Saturday in Kelowna and tell me then how many Chinese buyers you think are snapping up Kelowna condos. I dare you.

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    "A-sharp" Says:
    26

    @Mold City:

    I'm still waiting for someone to give some hard numbers that the chinese buyer is responsible for any more than a small percentage of the sales. Until then, I'll maintain my ususal stance—-there are some buyers, but the are not the primary drivers of our market

    …Maybe they are because it gives locals the fear required to keep buying in the light of horrific fundamentals.

    …and now let's assume (at the other end of the spectrum), that our market is 100% driven by chinese money. What happens when the chinese property bubble unravels?

    There are a few things that soften my bearish stance, but foreign buyers are not one of them.

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    "A-sharp" Says:
    27

    @Absinthe: You said "From the data I’m looking at, prices on SFH are down 19% YoY in Kelowna; it seems like a pretty normal declining market to me, when compared to all the American cities I’ve been watching. Vancouver’s rapid percentage decline in 2008 was an anomaly amongst declining markets, and I don’t think we should expect it."

    You are exactly right.

    This one will take a long time to unravel (barring double-digit interest rates). If someone is too impatient to wait 5 years for the bottom, than that person still has "the virus".

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    depressed Says:
    28

    When will the rain stop? It has been more than a month now I see no sunshine!

    Best place on earth "my ass".

    I am done here, moving to San Diego.

    We have been lied to, it cant be best place on earth with no sunshine for months now.

    Best palce on earth for growing endives and white aspargus, maybe.

    I need sunshine. I need sunshine. I need sunshine. This wheather keeps me depressed for so long :-( ((

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @“A-sharp” Accountant: "There are a few things that soften my bearish stance"

    Out of interest, what things?

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    Absinthe Says:
    30

    @Dave: Sorry, I was looking at 2008/09 data. Prices on SFH very slightly up in Kelowna, but so are sales, and inventory has been dropping MoM. (8 MOI vs. 12 MOI last spring, MOI trending *down*.)

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    Absinthe Says:
    31

    I'm going to have to start watching Kelowna now! The $400K group is moving. $1M and up is freezing. Sales were up and inventory down YoY in March, but MoM stats suggest to me that iistings are pouring in there, too – and sales are brisk, too. So you've got market behaviour really similar to Vancouver's, only with a very different demographic and price spread.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    32

    @Absinthe:

    Prices ARE sticky on the way down

    Price stickiness on the way down has much more to do with buyers than sellers. Some people always have to sell and they have to accept what a buyer is willing to offer. The reason that prices fall slowly is that fools willing to pay excessive prices run out slowly. If next month no buyer was willing to pay any more than 80% of what is offered by the most willing buyer today, prices would HAVE TO fall 20% in one month.

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    An old joke. A guy in the mid 90s visits Montreal. When he gets back home his buddy says to him, "so, is the economy as bad there as they say?"

    The first guy replies, "No! Business is booming. This new chain called 'A Louer' has stores all the way up and down St. Catherines St.!!"

    anyway . . . I know this has been mentioned here before, but MAN there are a lot of commercial/industrial for lease signs around town. And they are getting more prevalent over the last 2 months, too.

    Unfortunately for us residential watchers, I don't see any direct implications. But a couple of indirect implications are:

    a) jobs. businesses are closing; jobs can't be getting more plentiful.

    b) The 'best real estate anywhere' mentality will take a hit as commercial real estate takes a hit. I don't know how much that bleeds into residential expectations though.

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    Reasonfirst Says:
    34

    RE: No more public service lay-offs.

    Still doesn't mean that the public sector won't continue to downsize. Lay-offs were somewhere in the neighbourhood of 1/3 to 1/2 of attrition (which are not getting replaced).

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    A data anecdote. Since 2006, I have been doing more or less daily searches on realtylink. One of my regular searches is downtown false creek north apartments. This measure cracked 1000 in inventory awhile back–and is way above 2008 levels. However, it has been bouncing around 1100 for a month now. Today it is at 1101; alltime high was 1118 a few weeks ago.

    I have to do the search in groups, since realtylnk only allows 500 listings per search. I had been breaking the search up into 0-500; 500-1mm, 1mm+.

    Ok. Now the point of the story. Even though I'm still under peak inventory for this search, I hit 499 in the 0-500 search today. What this means is, even though we are at 1101 and not 1118 in inventory, the price pattern of that inventory is shifting DOWNWARD and putting stress on my 0-500k and 500k-1mm searches. The 1mm+ search is getting smaller and smaller.

    Moreover, I set up new searches today. 0-400K etc. etc. I tried 400-600K and in that range alone I hit 400+ condos. WOW. My second range had to be as narrow as 400K-500K in order to get the search results comfortably under 400. There are a LOT of condos for sale in the 400-600K range.

    Recall that these are marketed to FTB'ers. To qualify for a 500K 35 year mortgage at today's CMHC / bank of canada 5 year rate of 5.99% you need to have income 99,553 by my calculations.

    How many people looking to buy downtown condos have that kind of income? Answer is: NOT ENOUGH OF THEM!

    Folks, prices are dropping out there. The data are slow to react, but on the street it is happening.

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    @White Payer:

    I think most canadians and especially british columbians are just plain stupid, [...] – it must be highly contiguous around here.

    I think that you've been here for too long.

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    @VHB: really interesting indeed. Love your work VHB!

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    Absinthe Says:
    38

    @patriotz: Agreed, but buyer psychology is also sticky.

    Those "forced" to sell aren't the majority in most markets – what VHB's DDT (death, divorce, and transfer) discussions were about – and even still, sellers could hold in some of those "forced" situations, if all sellers were stubborn and their time was worth little. So you've got psychology on both sides, buyers and sellers.

    I would suggest prices are sticky mainly because of context. If Sellers A through X are not "motivated" and list houses for around a million, and sellers Y and Z are motivated and trying to sell yesterday, the psychology of buyers and sellers both are influenced by the context of the non-sellers, even if nothing's moving. And then you add in remaining Greater Fools, to sauce the comps up.

    Sure, a buyer's strike might take care of overvaluation on fundamentals and force 20% MoM price drops, and I'm sure it does happen – we saw fast drops in Vancouver 2008! I think especially this happens if buyers CAN'T buy. But a total buyers strike in RE isn't really common even in really crappy markets. Real estate is emotional and psychological, and the DDT folks won't necessarily exponentially outnumber the Greater Fools, even in a falling market.

    That's why I think markets can shoot up 20% in a month of buying frenzy but drift down for years.

    'Course, every month, more motivated sellers come online. *g*. I think that's part of the tipping point of MOI, but why prices usually stay sticky and it's not sudden RE cliff diving. People just decide they're not moving, and get incredibly insulted that the value of their house is less than they perceive it to be.

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    Macho-Nacho Says:
    39

    @VHB: the link between commercial and residential is not direct, nor even time-synched. But there is definitely a relationship.

    Businesses are owned/operated by (some) people with mortgages. If they can't make a go of it, what happens to their residential debt servicing abilities?

    The lack of absorption in the office/retail markets is not a good omen (I wish it were otherwise)

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    realpaul Says:
    40

    #29 D, you're nor depressed, you're describing Seasonal Affective Disorder or SADS for short. It is due the Vancshithole having the longest monsoon on the planet. The lack of sunshine and constant gloomy rain causes people to begin feeling unhealthy and lethargic, there is an increase of dental disease as well from the lack of Vit D exposure. Best place on earth , my ass; only if you're looking for a high percentage of toothless suicidals.

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    "A-sharp" Says:
    41

    @VHB:

    VHB,

    Keep up the good work. Top notch analysis here and in other comments.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    San Franciscan leavi Says:
    42

    I cannot believe I lasted 9 months in this subarctic full of delusional drug addicts and dealers alike rain hole of a place. I have never ever hated where I have lived before, but Vancouver is the clear exception here. This nightmare ends very soon.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Absinthe: There is no "balance" between buyers and sellers. As I am sure will be re-iterated, only buyers set the price. An obstinate seller can refuse to sell and cannot make the market. Only buyers can do that.

    Prices are sticky downwards mostly because sales volumes are low.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    44

    @San Franciscan leaving Raincouver for good: Have a nice flight you toothless suicidal!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    SamanthaD Says:
    45

    Hi I just wanted to drop in an d let you all know that I won't be thinking of all you bitter renters when I'm out enjoying an refreshing cranteeny on a sunny patio after work today! Ciao for now :)

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    "A-Sharp" Says:
    46

    @SamanthaD:

    Enjoy your drink. Have a nice day.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    SuperSmartBull Says:
    47

    @SamanthaD: Who are you trying to convince, us or yourself?

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    Woodrow Says:
    48

    @SamanthaD: What kind of bull are you? you have to work still? can't you live on the proceeds of your Vancouver real estate?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    VanCity Guy Says:
    49

    @San Franciscan leaving Raincouver for good:

    Just curious, what are your reasons for hating Vancouver so much? You seem to have a very strong opinion of this place you have been for less than a year. Was it that hard of an adjustment from San Fran?

    If your beef is mainly the weather, it's a shame you were here during the 9 months of rain, as opposed the 3 months of Summer….though this year, I am starting to wonder if summer is ever going to show up.

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    Girlbear Says:
    50

    @SamanthaD: I just looked out window. What sunny patio would this be? Are you in LA or something…?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    VanCity Guy Says:
    51

    @SamanthaD:

    Sunny patio? Did you leave Vancouver for Ontario already?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Superfly Says:
    52

    Sales look to be coming in a little lower this week. Low 700s gives an MOI of 6 for Vancouver. MOI typically rises every month from Jun-Dec (see housing analysis blog for plots).

    So expect a transition further into buyers territory as summer and fall progress.

    BTW, I'm sure the CREAA sponsored posters on this site (Dave, Kite, Superbull) could tell us exactly where we are with sales for the week.

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    @SamanthaD: i recommend you sell now. Let me try and explain, however it's not un-complicated: It's better to sell at higher rather than at lower price.

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    paulb. Says:
    54

    New Listings 111

    Price Changes 82

    Sold Listings 54

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    curious lurker Says:
    55

    @paulb.:

    yeehah!

    early(bear) stats today.

    yippee kayay!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    56

    @Absinthe:

    Those “forced” to sell aren’t the majority in most markets

    There are 3 types of potential or actual sellers;

    1. Those who have to sell.

    2. Investors who don't have to sell, but are selling because they think the party's over. It they thought they could get a higher price by waiting they wouldn't be thinking of selling in the first place.

    3. Owner-occupiers who don't have to sell. Almost always they are planning to buy another property, so it makes no difference to the market whether they sell or not. Some may be planning on downsizing and some on upsizing so it nets to around zero.

    Consider the above and you'll see that the "people deciding not to sell can prevent rapid price drops" theory doesn't hold much water. Any decrease in supply on the sell side is matched by decreased demand on the buy side. It's the "have to sell" and "get out of Dodge" types (1,2) who drive the market.

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    Dan in Calgary Says:
    57

    @samanthad "Hi I just wanted to drop in an d let you all know that I won’t be thinking of all you bitter renters"

    Who are you trying to kid? You will so be thinking of us. You're obsessed with your recent epiphany that renters are the new elite, the new "now crowd". Having a mortgage is so-o-o-o-o yesterday.

    otoh, maybe you're using your vodka-plus concoction to induce a mind-numbing effect to hide from your financial doom.

    Oh I'm crabby today.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Absinthe: You're right that those forced to sell aren't a majority.

    But all it takes is one.

    Imagine a condo, TV Towers, say, with 30 1br condos for sale for 400K. Say that 29 of these guys are just dipping their toes in the market, hoping to move up. They have oodles of income and won't sell unless they get their price. Great.

    But guy #30 is an overleveraged flipper who just got divorced and lost his job. He has to sell. The only buyer looking at these turkey condos is willing to pay 350K. Presto. Sale at 350K. The new comp is 350K. Doesn't matter what the other 29 guys think. Prices are set by the marginal transaction, not their wishing prices.

    When you have so many sellers, the price is set by the WEAKEST among them. Not the highest; not even the average. The WEAKEST.

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    Whitebear Says:
    59

    He has to leave Vancouver obviously for the weather. It can’t be due to the unrealistic housing prices here in Vancouver since San Francisco housing is still in the stratosphere.

    Case in point. Check out these recently sold transactions in San Francisco Proper. They are all old timers except one built in the 1960s. All of them are built on lots even smaller than the standard 33-lot here. Look at the google overhead view and you will see how cramped those places are. Definitely not as liveable as the Van West side.

    My enquiring mind would want to know why housing there are still worth > 1.5M amid the worst housing disasters in the US. Anyone can answer that?

    http://www.trulia.com/home_values/for_sale/CA/San
    Check "Recently Sold Homes"

    Check item 2, 11, 17, 19, 24. Notice their per sq.feet price higher than any on Van West side?

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    rubberduckie Says:
    60

    Kids, I think SamanthaD is a trolly-troll.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Absinthe Says:
    61

    @VHB: Agreed, but what I mean is this: guy undercuts 400K to 350K, and will likely find a buyer because the comps are 400K.

    He doesn't undercut to a value based on fundamentals that will, like gravity, eventually drag housing and the economy around it back to sanity. Hypothetically, let's say this is 200K for this apartment if rents don't drop.

    It's those NEED to sell folks who will find the buyers, but the buyers are still influenced by the perceived wealth in real estate; by the culture of real estate, and that works to make extreme "lowballing" look contrarian or crazy.

    So our 350K salesperson still will likely find a buyer, because he's a "steal" at 50K below competitor. Or even 25,000 below competitor.

    Prices are set on the margin, I agree, but RE tends to be sticky on the way down even if supercharged on the way up, because – unlike Beanie Babies or BP – it's got a lot of cultural weight on it.

    However, I would hypothesize the ratio of Motivated Sellers to Greater Fools would determine the rate of change in pricing. Because you'd have more little "gas wars" breaking out in comps. You'll see faster price drops if the motivated sellers were competing with each other; as it is, there's a cultural agreement that "houses have value" that is hard to break through.

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    Absinthe Says:
    62

    @VHB & @patriotz … Of course, the scenario where there are a lot of foreclosures and or a lot of new builds in the market – as with subprime and quite possibly here this year – enlarges the number of Have To Sellers AND shrinks the pool of Fools, so that ratio gets set up for epic decline pretty fast!

    What I'm essentially saying, though, is that sticky prices (which can and do happen with real estate – as Dave pointed to Kelowna this quarter) don't suggest that housing won't return to fundamentals. Of course it will return to a baseline that makes sense for the economy.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    63

    @SamanthaD:

    Hi Samantha.

    Nobody cares, piss off.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Starving Artist Says:
    64

    @Whitebear:

    My enquiring mind would want to know why housing there are still worth > 1.5M amid the worst housing disasters in the US. Anyone can answer that?

    Easy. You know how much jobs pay in SF/Bay Area?

    Answer: a hell of a lot more than here

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    I don't buy these claims such as "RE is sticky on the way down" or it's near-opposite "RE goes up slowly, and crashes fast" (both of which have been claimed recently right here on VCI).

    All the *objective* evidence shows that RE bubbles are bell-shaped and symmetrical around their peak. So they take just as long to deflate as they took to inflate. Here is an example from California's recent bust:

    http://www.abcrealestatedirectory.com/prices/stat

    If Vancouver follows these trends (and there seems to be no reason why it won't, unless of course it's different here), then the bottom will likely not be for another 5 years or even more.

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    Anonymous Says:
    66

    @SamanthaD:

    Hey Sam,

    Thanks for thinking about us, enough to leave a lovely message! I'll make myself a nice Crantini as well and make a toast to a care free rental life where you don't need to worry about declining equity!

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    "RE bubbles are bell-shaped and symmetrical around their peak."

    PRICES are roughly symmetrical around the peak but sales volume is definitely not — it falls off a cliff in severe bear markets, like in 2008 in Vancouver. That is why buying into a bubble has a low chance of being successful if you don't sell before the crash starts.

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    paulb. Says:
    68

    New Listings 142

    Price Changes 90

    Sold Listings 62

    really slow day

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    It's true that no buyer ever have to buy, but the problem is many buyers often feel like they do! We all know people who think that they have to buy now in order to 1) not be priced out in the future, 2) live in that nice neighborhood forever, 3) attain the "homeowner" achievement, and 4) invest like an adult! Once a buyer decides that he must buy, the only consideration is how much he can afford, not whether or not renting is cheaper, since renting is no longer an option to him.

    If every buyer is educated and rational, then bubbles wouldn't have formed this big in the first place, regardless of emergency rates, 5/35 year mortgages, or media propagandizing. When sellers are reluctant to drop the price, and sale volumes are low, all it takes is a few of these "desperate" buyers to keep the price sticky.

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    Tony Danza Says:
    70

    @SamanthaD: Hey Sam don't hit the "cranteeny's" too hard, drinking won't solve your financial or "professional" problems sweetheart.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Absinthe Says:
    71

    @Yalie: That symmetrical sell off certainly isn't cliff diving!

    I think we're all discussing a matter of apples and oranges: overall market vs. macro. This convo started when I was talking Dave, who was suggesting things could be different here by providing Kelowna as an example of a place where there is 8 MOI (down, of course, from 12) and is showing price gains.

    That's an outlier on Mohican's trendline, which shows MoM noise anyway. But tho' you can get cliff diving in most other asset classes, I'm suggesting it's less likely in real estate, and 8 MOI with a price gain is working with heavy psychology. Takes a while to turn the market, because prices – or maybe I should say Perceived Value – is sticky. Whereas I watched the bidding wars in downtown condos, and that was like watching people gambling while on a bender – it's easier for mob mentality to get in there. And so I posit psychology as making Kelowna's irrational exuberance sticky on the way down; Jesse posits low sales volumes, and that is also true. Regardless, there's very little cliff diving – people don't mark their houses down as easily as a mob bids it up.

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    Beatbox Says:
    72

    You all ask about Chinese in Vancouver… have you ever tried to read a Vancouver Chinese forum? They sound much the same as what gets posted here. I don't think the Chinese are doing a ton of buying. Check out this popular forum: (Translated link posted)

    http://www.westca.com/Forums/viewforum/f=74/lang=

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    superduperbulltime Says:
    73

    Bear if you still want your tip you better get that crantiny to Samantha fast.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    74

    @Absinthe:

    Regardless, there’s very little cliff diving – people don’t mark their houses down as easily as a mob bids it up.

    You're missing the point, it's the buyers who determine prices, in both up and down markets. Always.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    75

    Convert bear/bull predictions into FIFA hi-definition score:

    Bulls 7 (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010)

    Bears 1 (Fluke goal in 2008)

    SCORE….BOARD! SCORE…..BOARD! SCORE…..BOARD!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anoymous Says:
    76

    @Beatbox:

    "I don’t think the Chinese who post on message boards are doing a ton of buying."

    Fixed that for you.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    77

    Prices didn't look too sticky to me a couple of years ago as they plummeted 16% in 8 months, before meeting zero interest rates head on.

    As has been mentioned by others, prices are set on the margins. Doesn't matter how many owners stamp their feet, hold their breath, demand their god-given price and threaten to hold out – if a handful need to bail in a market past its peak and will take whatever they can get then that becomes the new price.

    The greedy ones can just watch prices drop and suck it.

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    Mr bear Says:
    78

    Hello all…new to this form…can someone explain to me what MOI means/stands for?
    Thx in advance…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    79

    Beatbox, keep posting, the quality of debate on vci exceeds RET by a country mile, though that's still not saying much

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    buff_butler Says:
    80

    @jesse: I think it depends on the market as to weather you will get symmetry going up vs going down. A lot of markets up days outweigh their down days but the down days are more severe. This can be seen with the N shaped patterns within the VIX series. Therefore it can take 6 months to erase 6 years. That’s an awesome point about sales volume though. Basically once the treadmill starts you cant get off :P

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    Anonymous Says:
    81

    moi = months of inventory = total active listings divided by total sales in a month. Is the # months required to clear the inventory at current rate of sales. High moi is correlated with falling prices and vice versa

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    Bilbo Bloggins Says:
    82

    It's Friday folks. All buyers and sellers r watching World Cup.

    Stats will be meaningless for the next 3 weeks!

    Or will they???

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    Alpha_Bear Says:
    83

    Absinthe,

    You keep quoting Kelowna numbers, but you have not provided your source. The numbers that I have been following show:

    9.8 MOI for SFResidential

    8.1 MOI for Condo/Townhouses

    17.8 MOI for Condo/Apartments

    Bob Rennie has dropped the prices 40% on the condo units he is marketing in Kelowna. Do you think this will make prices "sticky" or will this lead to lower prices for comparable units?

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    buff_butler Says:
    84

    @Whitebear: This search you sent is the northern section directly above Palo-Alto in the bay area. Palo-Alto is ground zero sillicon valley and close to Beverly Hills. It is not the San Fransisco average which got decimated ~+50% (guess?).

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    85

    @Bilbo Bloggins:

    Rich Chinese don't watch the World Cup.

    Especially when their team isn't in it. :)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @depressed: And when you finally see sunshine? Don't you get that blissful feeling that there is indeed a god and he has smiled fortune on you, that Vancouver is the best place on Earth where if you want, you can go golf in the morning, hit the beach in the afternoon, hike up Grouse Grind and then do some night skiing, come down for some late night food & drinks, all in 1 day. But off course most people ain't got the energy to do all that but just knowing you have the option available is good enough for a real Vancouverite.

    Try doing all that in California in one day, can't be done! Why? They don't have a Grouse Grind there! Also they don't have culture there either. I mean sure there is the free Getty Center with its large collection of Renaissance art but really, how can that compare with Vancouver Art Gallary's collection of Emily Carr, and an impressive collection of GVRD apartment buildings lobby photos. That kind of bleeding edge of art collection just cannot be found elsewhere.

    :) ok *sacarsm off*

    btw, I'm actually really really thinking about moving to California too, San Diego/La Jolla preferable. Heard some really good things about La Jolla especially. Now getting a good job there and getting some $$ out of the family home might be a challenge though.

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    SamanthaD Says:
    87

    lol, You people are so pessimistic. Look out your windows and enjoy life for once in your lives! The sun is here well at least it is for me because I don't have a rain cloud following me around where ever I go you wet blankets!!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    C-Note Says:
    88

    Samantha! Great to see you! Pull up a chair and take the weight off your rubber boots. Here, let me wipe that down for you. If you sit down fast, it won't get rained on. Sorry, you're going to have to speak up – can't hear you over the downpour. A cranteeny? Of course – coming right up. Oh, I should let you know that the price has gone up. Doubled in fact. To pay for the heat. Oh silly me, I should turn that up. Here you are all bundled up. Sunny day? I guess if you like liquid sunshine. Doesn't bother me though: I just got back from Mexico. Yes, it was beautiful! I got my allotment of sunshine so I can handle a couple weeks of Vancouver summer. How did I afford it? Oh, I rent. No way I could take the time off if I were mortgaged to the hilt. If I couldn't get away every now and then, I'd go crazy. You'd see me taking a swan-dive off the bridge. My god, it rains a lot here doesn't it. I'm still not used to it. Anyways, it's nice to see someone other than renters in here, by the way. You should come more often – you look like you could use it, if you don't mind me saying. I think you work too hard. You're just getting off work, aren't you? I hope you don't have to work tomorrow. Oh, I'm sorry. Oh, I didn't realize that it was so late – I'm almost off shift. Hey, would you like to join us: we're going dancing! Hmm, yeah, not if you're working tomorrow. Well, I'll leave you to it. Bye Samantha!

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    Anoymous Says:
    89

    @space889:

    "Now getting a good job there might be a challenge though."

    Careful, you just indirectly made a positive comment about Vancouver.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anoymous Says:
    90

    @C-Note:

    You might be happy being a waiter, but most people have higher aspirations.

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    specialfx3000 Says:
    91

    I know we generally should not feed the troll but Samantha is fun one. Do stay around "Sammy the condo buyer from the east" – who happens to mistaken clouds for sunshine.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @SamanthaD: Sam honey, Maybe you should brush up on your grammar while you're at it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Absinthe Says:
    93

    @Alpha_Bear: Prices are steady, according to at least one of the pdfs you linked to, in those numbers – and you've got 9.8 MOI for SFH. Right? That's what I was addressing. High MOI and yet price stability (or increase) MoM that Realtors are crowing about and Dave thought he'd bring up, being a bull.

    New builds do tend to drop faster – builders aren't sentimental. That's why I suggested that foreclosures and new builds would increase the number of motivated sellers and therefore increase the speed of change.

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    Absinthe Says:
    94

    @patriotz: No, I'm not missing the point. I am answering Dave's question about why the prices aren't marked down in Kelowna in a few months of high MOI. I'm interested in buyer psychology, and that buyer psychology is market influenced.

    Buyers, by buying, drove a bubble with mob mentality and irrational exuberance. The ones still left in the market aren't noticing the mob falling away in Kelowna, although they did here in Vancouver in 2008.

    In other markets, buyers often notice falling demand more quickly.

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    Anoymous Says:
    95

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/brit

    Here's an article with some names and numbers, rather than just speculation.

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    Alpha_Bear Says:
    96

    Absinthe wrote:

    Buyers, by buying, drove a bubble with mob mentality and irrational exuberance. The ones still left in the market aren’t noticing the mob falling away in Kelowna, although they did here in Vancouver in 2008.

    Not according to a Kelowna realtor, who was quoted in the Globe and Mail as saying: “It’s just like someone turned off the tap,” said real estate agent Paige Guernsey, who works at Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty in Kelowna, B.C. “You’d think all the buyers sent each other e-mails agreeing not to buy anything for a little while.”

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    girlbear Says:
    97

    @buff_butler: Palo Alto is nowhere near Beverly Hills dude.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Absinthe Says:
    98

    I'm obviously not being clear enough, so I'll bow out. But we do generally see price reductions starting at about 6 MOI, and Dave's right, in Kelowna, not so much in the recent SFH MoM numbers. Yet prices are stable or up. Alpha Bear's linking to all of the valley, and that shows inventory up higher than Kelowna, and prices are stable or up.

    I think it's fair that Dave ask us why we think it will change in Kelowna eventually, to explain why price drops aren't happening yet, and to explain why we don't think there can be an ongoing high inventory, low buyer market that features no price drops.

    I posit that it's because the psychology of the market hasn't changed. Yep, buyers set the price, but buyers pull the trigger at different price points for different reasons.

    If there's a price war going on around me, I might wait a bit and see if things drop.

    If most everything I want is sitting there at 600K, I might consider 575K a good deal, even if it doesn't make sense on the fundamentals.

    Or I might be one of the greater fools who steps up and pays 610K, because of one imaginary bidding war and me not doing my homework.

    Nothing made sense on the fundamentals, here, because the market was in irrational exuberance. That's buyer psychology. And there's momentum in RE – no one wakes up and screams SELL into their phone. So it CAN take buyers awhile to notice they've got more leverage in the market, and it can take sellers – even motivated ones – awhile to drop their prices to a place buyers will buy. So prices don't necessarily drop overnight. They can take some time.

    There are times that prices might drop overnight. When I'm a builder who needs to get out and I decide I'm going to discount ferociously on an entire block of condos in order to draw all the buyers from across the market to me away from my competitors. When I don't undercut in 20K dribs and drabs – which in a slow enough market, will likely find buyers – but when I undercut by 150K because there's a freakin' fire sale on. That'll change buyer expectation for my competitors after I've left the market, too.

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    Absinthe Says:
    99

    @Alpha_Bear: Yes, sales are dead, but the realtors are also all saying prices are steady. You will note that I also mentioned the dead sales. Dave was talking about prices.

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    Alpha_Bear Says:
    100

    Absinthe,

    You insist on making statements without providing any links to back up your assertions, such as:

    Yes, sales are dead, but the realtors are also all saying prices are steady.

    Alpha Bear’s linking to all of the valley, and that shows inventory up higher than Kelowna, and prices are stable or up.

    Well, there's the problem. You appear to believe what realtors are telling you. Did you figure out the average prices from the OMREB data that I linked to earlier?

    I've been following the Kelowna and Vernon real estate markets closely over the past 5 years. I'll quote you a few facts, and spin them in a way you'll never hear a realtor spin them.

    The average price for SFResidential (in the North Okanagan) in May of 2010 is almost exactly what it was in May of 2007. So yes, prices may be steady, but realtors don't want you to know that there have been no gains over the past 4 years, and average prices in 2010 are actually $28,000 lower than they were in May of 2008.

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    Vulture Fun Says:
    101

    @buff_butler: Regarding bubble symmetry, history suggests that ascent roughly matches descent. I remember seeing a comparison of bubbles through the ages and the overwhelming theme was symmetry. I couldn't find that article but the following link from the Business Insider shows a few examples:

    http://tinyurl.com/yj6s2pb

    Don't get me wrong, I'm all for cliff diving, but I just don't think the hungry bears will be that lucky.

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    realpaul Says:
    102

    All day we've been hearing from the media ga ga's about the resignation of the Energy Minister from Gordon Campbells caucus. This guy, from the interior was one of seven who barely squeeked in during the last election on a recount. There are many more Libs who haven't got their pension time in yet and will jump ship soon. Gordon Campbell is going to go the way of Glen Clark who had to look for the charity of Jim Pattison after he left office the last time a premier pissed as many people off as has Gordonondo the Great Idiot.

    Gordo's publicist's had him in the papers over the past year getting him tarted up for a step into federal politics and possibly an international position, but…..when he goes down in flames….as he looks to do…all those plans will flush down the toilet. No one wants an albatross like the most unpopular politician in history on the team.

    Gordon has an unbelievable ego, he thought he could muscle the entire province into doing everything he wanted…big mistake Senor Idiota. And now his career and legacy will be gurgling down the shithole. I expect to see those drunk ass photos of his DUI arrest start to resurface when his name is mentioned. Good thing he didn't kill a family on his was back from the weathermans BBQ. Gordon Campbell…What an Asshole, should be the legacy that gets publized when this bozo is out.

    Don't think that the NDP is any better, the deals they did with the unions against the taxpayers in the dying days of the appointee fuck up Ujjal Dosanj were thoughtless and criminal. The NDO aren't supporting the demise of the HST, they are greedily playing an easy power grab and they should be ashamed of themselves for their cunticism. (Thats a new mash word…it's mine, don't touch it).

    So, none of these dip shit politicians has talked about reducing costs to the taxpayer..by reducing spending…European style…immediate cut backs of all civil service pay and claw back the egregious pensions. Think of how many new text books would appear in the classroom if 92% of the education budget didn't disappear into the teachers pockets. Ditto on health care with over 90% of the budget getting sucked up by the parasites. Anyone wonder why there are no new blood machines or MRI's in Childrens hospital? Its not because the system is underfunded it's because the parasites are being grossly over fed.

    Take the cops as another example. What kind of 'quality' does it take to taser eighty year olds in hospital beds or grandma's in the driveway? Did it take a superior citizen to shoot Ian Bush in the back of the head? What about Robert Djikanski..did you get a look at the buffoons that killed ? The police service should be farmed about to a company that has to answer for the mayhem they perpetrate among the citizens. I'm sure we can find 'officers' for far less that what we pay the incompetant boobs and psycho's that are in uniform now.

    We don't need more taxes to fund the governments programs as the VSB/NDO farm team has suggested, we need competant managers who will make the hard decisions now so that we don't all end up in a fools socialist paradise later. Don't forget that the civil service platinum pensions are now guaranteed a sacrosanct from failure….do you get the same ?????????

    I say hang Gordo out to dry and scare the crap out of the rest of them so that they shape up.

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    Maybe this is the sign of building quality in Vancouver? Heck, they can't even tear down the building correctly, let alone building it.

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2

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    Boombust Says:
    104

    "Are you in LA or something…?"

    Isn't that the exact centre of the universe? Someone once told me.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Vulture Fun Says:
    105

    More on bubble symmetry here, from a chapter lifted from Chris Martenson's excellent Crash Course.

    http://tinyurl.com/6rn6lc

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    Boombust Says:
    106

    Global News had a Cameron Muir talking head piece on their 5 o'clock newscast…

    They mentioned a slowdown in sales but, he cautioned, "There are a lot of Chinese investors out there."

    Uh oh.

    You heard it here/there first.

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    paulb. Says:
    107

    New Listings 230

    Price Changes 165

    Sold Listings 100

    Nice ratios

    18,781

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    Boombust Says:
    108

    re: "Bubble Symmetry".

    Don't bubbles usually "pop" when they're ready to?

    (Nothing gradual, mind you).

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    "A-Sharp" Says:
    109

    I love how people always call RE bears "pessimists"

    Lower house prices are all part of my bright future. I've owned 3 properties in the last 7 years, and have made substantial profit on all of them. They are gone now (sold investment property in May 2008, and PR in june 2009), and I'm very optimistic that I can replace them for substantially less than I paid for them. As each day goes by, my optimism grows.

    Repeat after me…

    BEAR=OPTIMIST

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    Chilled Says:
    110

    realpaul Says:

    June 11th, 2010 at 8:59 am

    Gordon Campbell admits tha HST is nothing but a cash grab for a government that can’t rationalize it’s own expenses. Blames ‘plumetting revenue’, can’t wake up to the fact the spending like a drunken sailor is the biggest part of the problem. Thus BOZO’s gotta go…..fast.. REEEEEEEEEE CAAAAAAALLLL.

    ++++++++++++

    Of course he won't backtrack. Campbell won't get the Senate seat Harper promised him.

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    coastal Says:
    111

    They mentioned a slowdown in sales but, he cautioned, “There are a lot of Chinese investors out there.”

    Cameron Muir's famous last words as the BC Housing Bubble blows up in his lying face. Desperate words from a desperate guy. When in trouble, pull out the "Chinese investor" card. Can't wait to see this mofo go down with the ship.

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    Chilled Says:
    112

    @Beatbox:

    72 Beatbox Says:

    June 11th, 2010 at 2:01 pm

    You all ask about Chinese in Vancouver… have you ever tried to read a Vancouver Chinese forum? They sound much the same as what gets posted here. I don’t think the Chinese are doing a ton of buying. Check out this popular forum: (Translated link posted)

    http://www.westca.com/Forums/v…..inese.html

    +++++++++++++++

    I went into an epelectic seizure when I opened that page.

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    Chilled Says:
    113

    @SamanthaD:

    No sales today, eh?

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    Vulture Fun Says:
    114

    The question of what to do with your bear stash of cash comes up sometimes on this blog. I am considering transferring the bulk of my savings to this place:

    http://www.peoplestrust.com/main/

    Does anyone here know anything about them? 2.1% on savings and 3.0% on a TFSA sounds pretty sweet to me. Fully CDIC-insured, of course. I can't see a downside.

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    The first time buyer has disappeared Calgary sales lowest recorded since 1998

    Vancouvers first time buyer has also likely vanished.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    San Franciscan leavi Says:
    116

    You guys asked for reasons. Here are a few:

    Extremely bad weather – non-stop rain for most of the year (repeat this 100 times)

    Drugs, prostitution and money laundering (mostly into real estate) as a major source of income for local inhabitants (not unlike people living in Mendocino and Humboldt counties of Northern California).

    Lack of real economy and / or employment base

    Extremely poor public infrastructure

    No culture or history to speak of

    How's that for reasons?…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    buff_butler Says:
    117

    @girlbear: For some reason I thought it was. My bad.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    118

    @Boombust:

    Right on schedule, the last ditch effort by the RE scumbags to get the word out as loud as they can that hordes of rich Chinese are buying real estate left, right and centre. Deb hope even used the words "snapping up high end properties" when referring to the foreign hordes.

    The piece on Global was hilarious. First a scene for dramatic effect showing a Chinese woman wearing fur touring a pre-sale office in Richmond, looking half heartedly at the model of the building, as if shes bored and just wants to buy the whole fucking thing and get out of there so she can go for lunch.

    Cut to Dch. Muir yapping about various meaningless statistics that are meant to imply that we'd all better sit up and take notice because if we don't act fast it will all be gone.

    "xxxx number of Chinese investor class come to Canada each year and xx percent of those go to Vancouver and xx percent of those blah, blah blah…."

    The fucker was actually smirking while talking to the reporter, as if in his mind he was thinking "Oh man, I can't believe I'm lying through my teeth and totally getting away with it. This is so cool!!"

    No appearance by Dch. Rennie this time though, perhaps he didn't get the memo.

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    kabloona Says:
    119

    #114 Vulture Fun:

    Yeah they are good…highest rate for a savings account but I would also recommend Ally, since you can link an Ally account to your checking account and transfer funds back and forth within about a day – unlike People's Trust which doesn't have electronic funds transfer capability. Ally currently pays 2.0% vs People's Trust which gives you 2.1%.

    Just my $0.02…. :-)

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    coastal Says:
    120

    Famous last words in 1989 before the big collapse.

    "The whole world wants Vancouver because everybody is moving here now and everything points up, up, up." (Realtor David Goodman, December, 1989 in the Sun. The market did not reach these heights again for 15 years.)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    realpaul Says:
    121

    Global infers that it is Chinese money that is keeping the value of Vanc RE from going down. So……it is all Chinese money that has created this bubble? Since when has Canada become a dumping ground for the failures of Communist China? According to Global…it already has.

    Now lets see, people living here are Canadians, people who drive prices up don't live here hmmmmmmmmmmm, anyone else having a problem with this so far? The Canadian peso is driving Canadians out of their homes in favor of political refugees who want an out if the crazy fuck heads in China get 'Cultural revolutionary' again. Does this also mean that our citizenship is now being sold for the price of a condo? I wonder why our politicians haven't given this any thought. How many more Canadians have to be displaced by a bunch of Chinese crooks who are really just here to take advantage of the weak laws? I wonder if they're advertising in China gors something like this, 'Buy a condo, send grandma and the kids for free everything and you can suck the Canadian taxpayer dry because they're weak and stupid".

    There was a guy here last week who was wondering why he couldn't find enough space to raise his two kids in the condo they'd purchased and couldn't afford to upgrade his square footage. I see this like the cockroach story, that there are a million stories like this out there as the PC cunts have stifled peoples ability to speak out against an insane policy if it happens to focused on foriegners who happen to be of a another ethnicity. Its these same PC cunts who are getting pushed into closets because a Chinese national just pushed him out of the market. Sure, its the kids that suffer, but it won't be PC to say so.

    Flaherty has just announced he wants to claw back another 5% of your paycheck to boost the CPP, ya right, its called taxation by another name. The steamroller of taxes in this country will keep the Canadian people poor and the foriegn nationals happy who can buy their way in cheap and collect free services they have never contributed to, all while using the Canadian peso /Yuan-USD differential against us.

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    Boombust Says:
    122

    "No culture or history to speak of…"

    In Vancouver? Speak for yourself.

    I can well remember the Smilin' Buddha, No. 5 Orange St. and Oilcan Harry's. And, even the short-lived Baceda's on E. Hastings.

    Not to ,metnion Expo 86 and the Olympics, just for safe measure.

    We have TONNES of ethnic restaurants and other things to do.

    Move along to San Fransisco.

    You can reminisce with the locals there about Ira Blue's talk show on KGO radio.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    123

    @coastal:

    Nice find!

    I didn't know the scumbag realtors have been talking like this for decades.

    Here's the expanded version from Dch. Goodman:

    Real Estate Kept '80s Roaring

    Vancouver Sun

    December 2, 1989

    Strong immigration to BC and steady economic growth have made Vancouver an extremely popular place to live.

    David Goodman, a Block Bros. Realty ltd. agent who specializes in apartment sales, said there is "absolute pandemonium" in Vancouver's apartment market now and prices of some buildings have shot up by a third in the past year.

    "Buyer's are betting that we ain't seen nothing in rents yet," Goodman said. "The whole world wants Vancouver because everybody is moving here now and everything points up, up, up. Unless we build walls around this city to keep people out, we're going to have to make some hard and fast decisions.

    "I don't have a solution other than the city has to come up with a lot more opportunities for developers to build rental housing."

    http://www.goodmanreport.com/media.htm

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    Devore Says:
    124

    @Dave: I don't know why your post got voted down, probably just instinct.

    But you answered your own question. Sales low, inventory high, prices "sticky". Sellers are not willing to drop prices, buyers are calling their bluff. Maybe they are not motivated enough, don't need to sell, or are in denial. It will come around soon enough.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    125

    @realpaul:

    What I really love about this coordinated effort by the RE industry to imply that offshore Chinese hordes are driving up prices is that it will result in a backlash from locals just like Australia.

    All they're doing is angering people and basically digging their own grave.

    Man those RE people are stupid.

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    Devore Says:
    126

    @realpaul: Aww, but they just fired like 1200 of their own, sure that'll fix the deficit! Of course, 1/3 of them immediately found work elsewhere in the government… eh, come again?

    Yup, in denial. Expect more cash grabs at every level and in new and creative ways, and that includes home owners.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    coastal Says:
    127

    "Does this also mean that our citizenship is now being sold for the price of a condo?"

    Apparently so, and Muir seems proud that dirty money has taken over the market and saved his ass as a short term excuse.

    I have a hard time believing that consistant planeloads of Chinese who mostly make peanuts to survive in their homeland can afford blocks full of 800 Sq ft condos for $588,000 plus when the average Canadian can't. There can only be so many dirty moneyed Asians left in the pool after all these years.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Chilled Says:
    128

    @San Franciscan leaving Raincouver for good:

    San Franciscan leaving Raincouver for good Says:

    June 11th, 2010 at 6:27 pm

    You guys asked for reasons. Here are a few:

    Extremely bad weather – non-stop rain for most of the year (repeat this 100 times)

    Drugs, prostitution and money laundering (mostly into real estate) as a major source of income for local inhabitants (not unlike people living in Mendocino and Humboldt counties of Northern California).

    Lack of real economy and / or employment base

    Extremely poor public infrastructure

    No culture or history to speak of

    How’s that for reasons?…

    ++++++++++++

    Christ, that is barely a warm-up!!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    At gas station today. Guy pulls up in powder blue new ferrari. He gets out. Mid 30s, pants hanging low gangsta style (dude you are mid-30s for Gods sake), tattoo'd arms. Thuggish look.

    Man I am sick of the new Vancouver.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    paulb. Says:
    130

    @Best place on meth:

    All of these quotes need to be saved! We cannot forget the blatant lies which we’ve been spoon fed. We cannot let these arseholes say "no one could have seen it coming" and get away with it. This is immoral behaviour and once the dominos fall these liars need to be reminded again and again.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    131

    @Best place on meth:

    Right on schedule, the last ditch effort by the RE scumbags to get the word out as loud as they can that hordes of rich Chinese are buying real estate left, right and centre.

    The same crap was being peddled during the first big bubble in 1980. BCTV (now Global) even ran a staged "news clip" of a "HK millionaire" sitting in the back of a limo driving around town buying properties. Seriously, I can still picture it.

    The same old sleaze keeps getting recycled and people never catch on.

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    superboomtime Says:
    132

    @kabloona: Bear people trust does EFT if you phone them or email them. Not big deal. But yeah for little bear with only a few hundred in the bank no big deal to make extra .1% but for big bull like me with 300k+ it make difference.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Dropper Says:
    133

    Regardless of how much foreign investment is responsible for real estate prices in Vancouver I would absolutely support regulation similar to that which Australia has implemented. Being able to procure citizenship through the buying of RE is complete and utter bullshit.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Jim Bob Says:
    134

    It's funny how Vancouver is the best place on earth, but just next door, Seattle is considered the worst place by many in the USm based purely on the dreadful weather. Seattle gets less rain than Vancouver too.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    135

    The number of Spectrum listings finally hit 70!!! This is getting scarier by the day.

    Other places worth mentioning are TV Towers (38) and Espagna (42).

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Teddy Bear Says:
    136

    Bulls, hurry up, this is never ever going to be available again, ever, ever, we are running out of land, and this property costs only $8,480,000, so hurry up, hurry up, cause SF is nothing, LA offers nothing but palm trees and ocean, Maldives are not that nice after all, and Bora Bora rhimes with Tora Bora so it must be crap – nothing compares to his SPECTACULAR property on Point Grey in best place on earth LOL

    MLS V820366
    http://tiny.cc/3hzpv

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    Re-diculous Says:
    137

    @Paul B – same question as a few days ago:

    Yesterday at 6:01 you reported total inventory = 18,750.

    Today @ 5:26: New Listings = 230, Sales = 100, and Total Inventory 18,781.

    I'm confused why inventory only grew by 31 today (versus delta between list and sales = 130). Is the other 100 due to expiries today? Thanks.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Animal Spirit Says:
    138

    @Best place on meth: They managed to pull in and anger realpaul – that is one for the count.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    coastal Says:
    139

    meth,

    here's another one for you, my links don't work, good google job.

    " . . .no one is panicking over the west side housing market and he insists that it has simply 'normalized'." (Jerry Jackman, January 27th 1990 quoted in the Sun. link West-side prices fell by 40% in the next 2 years.)

    patriotz,

    you jarred my memory bank, I recall that disgusting piece of pump. Global is keeping their tradition alive of feeding the sheep the slop they want to hear. I'm sure Skalbania was in the limo behind him.

    If Global ever did a piece of real investigative reporting they would find out Muir is regurgitating a pack of BS some media PR guy dreamed up. Where can we find these stats to back up his outragous claims ? We can't, cause they don't exist.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Re-diculous: the difference between (new listings – sales) and delta(inventory) is expiries and taken off the market. There were 99 today. That's high. I expect that they were taken off the market more than expiries, given that it is not a round date.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @superboomtime: LOL! LOL! The truth comes out. $300k in the bank. Man, the way you were talking I figured a couple of mill at least!! $300k. You are HIGH ROLLER dude.

    You are an IDIOT.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymouse Says:
    142

    @Teddy Bear:

    MLS V820366
    http://tiny.cc/3hzpv

    I would fire my realtor just based on those photos alone.

    1. Pick a sunny day for f's sake. That place looks positively suicide inducing.

    2. How about some inside photos?

    Yeesh. For $8M those are the best photos they can muster up?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    huckmeabone Says:
    143

    RealPaul you are bang on. We are seen as stupid Canadians by the Chinese and Indians who are taking full advantage.

    It will be interesting to see what happens to all the PC assholes if/when the economy collapses from the weight.

    What will the PC's do when the immigratnts have consolidated and they come for the soft underbelly of white society.

    This is what they will say "but Mr. Indian I stuck up for you..against the cries of my own"

    Mr. Indian "Then you are not only stupid you are also a traitor".

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    Anonymous Says:
    144

    "Being able to procure citizenship through the buying of RE is complete and utter bullshit"

    maybe i'm not understanding this right, but i don't think that's the case. investment class immigrants have to provide a 3 year interest free loan to the gov't. they don't have to buy RE. it's not the buying of RE that qualifies them as investor class immigrants. at least, that's what i heard on TV. they were interviewing a guy who had a work history at immigration.

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    Anonymous Says:
    145

    @huckmeabone: I want to vote you up 1000 times. This is so true, and would not happen in China and India, you can be sure of that.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    coastal Says:
    146

    So if we go by this article in the Globe tonite, then approximately 1500-2000 Chinese per year are responsible for holding up this market ? I say BS.

    “There are over 3,000 Chinese families who migrate to Canada under the business category every year,” said Vincent Chen of Visas Consulting Group, who helps families move to Canada from his office in Shanghai. “At least 60 per cent of these families choose Vancouver to settle down – and a major part of them will buy property there, sooner or later.”

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/the-

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    Anonymous Says:
    147

    @boombust – "I can well remember the Smilin’ Buddha, No. 5 Orange St. and Oilcan Harry’s. And, even the short-lived Baceda’s on E. Hastings."

    Hey, old-timers will remember The Cave supper club. Yes, we do have a history of culture. Here's who used to come to Vancouver, to the Cave supperclub, apparently: Louis Armstrong, Bachman Turner Overdrive, Josephine Baker, Tony Bennett, Chuck Berry, James Brown, Johnny Cash, Ray Charles, Bo Diddley, The Dorsey Brothers, Duke Ellington, Nelson Eddy, The Fifth Dimension, Ella Fitzgerald, Mitzi Gaynor, Robert Goulet, Lena Horne, The Ink Spots, Peggy Lee, Martin & Rowan, Jane Mansfield, Bette Midler, Country Joe McDonald, Chuck Miller, The Mills Brothers, Anthony Newly, Wayne Newton, Roy Orbison, The Pied Pipers, Paul Revere and The Raiders, Buddy Rich, The Righteous Brothers, Johnny Rivers, Jimmi Rodgers, Sonny & Cher, The Supremes, The Temptations, Ike & Tina Turner, The Ventures, … and more!

    So who comes to Vancouver these days? Big names, maybe. But how often? Big crowds, eh? Not up-close and personal like The Cave?

    Vancouver was a major cultural center. And during the hippy era it became a major counter-culture center, and big counter-culture names came here.

    Speaking of the 1960s, do you remember,

    “Little boxes on the hillside,

    little boxes made of ticky tacky,

    little boxes on the hillside,

    little boxes all the same”.

    The song was apparently written by Malvina Reynolds, but it was also performed by (yes, you guessed right) Pete Seeger. For a nice YouTube rendition, click here.

    Times have changed, the little boxes are no longer on the hillside (we've run out of land lol); now we stack them high in the air like LEGO.

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    Dropper Says:
    148

    Anonymous,

    Yeah, I went over-the-top without explaining anything. Must have caught some Realpaulitis.

    It's not really possible to get citizenship through simply buying property but there is a work-around. Instead of buying property in, oh, I don't know, China, a family living there could instead use their money to purchase RE in Canada. Move the family here and send your university aged child to school here. After two (maybe three, not sure) years of school and one year of work experience the child can apply for permanent residency. Once that is acquired the door is open for sponsoring family members (who already live here anyway) and for obtaining citizenship.

    So the purchase of property in Canada (instead of their home country) is an indirect way of procuring citizenship. Massive problems in OZ because of this loophole.

    Why would a family in Guangzhou use their money to buy Re there when it would be more worthwhile here?

    Apologies for not explaining earlier.

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    Dan in Calgary Says:
    149

    Ooops, sorry. Anonymous #147 was me.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    San Franciscan leavi Says:
    150

    Jim Bob – You are exactly right. My move up here was a complete and utter mistake, one that cost me time and money, but one that is easily reversible.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Boombust: Muir is a fading, failing hack of a useless snake oil salesman who knows nothing about real estate or the economy. If there are so many Asian investors just lining up to snap up our real estate then why the hell is it "slowing down"?? The idiot says it is slowing down and there is lots of eager Asian investors in the same sentence and expects credibility. What a complete maroon. Pull your skirt down you useless cheerleader your panties are showing.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @huckmeabone: All this anti-immigrant BS is laughable. Any look at immigrants' second generation children and how well integrated they are shows how inane the concept of immigrants stealing Canadian's "hard-earned" lifestyle really is. I see it now: a group of rich businessmen meet in the back room of a lavish downtown restaurant to plot the demise of the "gui lo jai."

    Besides, with all the money supposedly being thrown at west side bungalows, it seems the "locals" have huge payouts coming their way. They should be thanking their lucky stars immigrants are so willing to overpay for a piece of dirt with some twigs on it, if there is credence to the rich immigrants cornering the land angle at all.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Re-diculous Says:
    153

    @VHB 140 Thanks for your answer, make sense…I guess I'm frustrated to see another great day like today (i.e. 230:100 list:sale) and yet see inventory only increase by 31…..perhaps I'm desperate for the 19,000 party!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Purp1 Says:
    154

    From G&M "…While Canada's rapid housing recovery – a 5.2 per cent year-over-year gain in 2009 – stoked fears of a bubble, other markets have been even hotter. Over the same period, prices in Hong Kong gained 27.6 per cent while those in China gained 25.1 per cent…" — We're not the #1 bubble? Good, nothing to see here, move along.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    155

    @huckmeabone: Thanks for the racist diatribe. Oh, what the hell does "[w]hat will the PC’s do when the immigratnts have consolidated and they come for the soft underbelly of white society" mean?

    The soft underbelly of "white" society? Could you please show me this "white" society of which you speak?

    Are you talking about the descendants of the British genocidaires who arrived in BC in the 19th century?

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    Jim Bob Says:
    156

    @San Franciscan leaving Raincouver for good:

    I'm sorry to hear. I wish you the best of luck back home.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Fast And Loose Demolition In Vancouver

    Wild west, frontier country; cowboy construction, daredevil demolition. All part of the culture of a hustle-or-be-hustled hot-hot-hot RE market.

    videos:

    http://wp.me/pcq1o-Ya

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    huckmeabone Says:
    158

    Jesse

    I wasn't talking about anti immigration. I was talking about us. We are the ones destroying our own country.

    If I was them I would be doing the same thing. If some foreign government was opening its taxpayers wallet to me for a little payoff on the side yeeeeeha!! Fuck ya sign me up.

    We are the idiots or actually you are the idiots you self loathing politically correct assholes not to be confused with Liberal assholes but very close.

    Onw more thing. I love it when you idiots try to tell us the way it really is. As if no one has travelled and no one has bought and sold property before.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Alpha_Bear Says:
    159

    Hey, I remember "The Cave"! I was there on the last night it was in business, with the entertainment provided by "Doug and the Slugs". Almost as much fun as "The Specials" at the old "Commodore Ballroom".

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    huckmeabone Says:
    160

    Oneangryslave

    Just so you don't get all PC on me I'm reading a great book called "Open Veins of Latin America" .

    Five centuries of the pillage of a continent by white Eueopeans. It's tragic. You should check it out

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Mental Midget Says:
    161

    @huckmeabone:

    Yeee Haw! You betcha. Load up dem shotguns boys. Let's roll. Hands off my medicare! Watch out for dem towelheads and Mexicans.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Tom Vu Says:
    162

    At first I got lots of discouragement from friends and stranger who are loser! You know what these people kept telling me? They kept saying, 'Well Tom Vu, you a crazy nut, here you are, a poor immigrant, poor minority, speak no English, no contact, on and on, and you trying to be rich in America! You crazy, man! Look at people out there! They smarter than you are, they not even rich! Who are you to try?' And you know what? I have to keep telling these people every time, I kept saying, 'You are loser! Get out of my way! I make it somehow!'

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    huckmeabone Says:
    163

    Mental Midget

    Just ask people in California

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    nonymouse Says:
    164

    "What will the PC’s do when the immigratnts have consolidated and they come for the soft underbelly of white society."

    Seriously that was the funniest thing I've read in a while.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    huckmeabone Says:
    165

    It's awesome that a majority of Canadians think the Immigrants we are letting into Canada recently are going to be their new Canadian buddies.

    It's also ammusing that most Canadians believe that the immigrants will rise up to a first world level and not slowly drag us down to a third world level. This is beyond naive.

    Trying to debase comments of posters by insinuating that they lack culture or education is clearly an alarming trend in Vancouver.

    If they don't agree label them…kinda like George Bush.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    The Insider Says:
    166

    Am I the only one who realizes that superbulltime must be a parody? "Economy taking off like bacon brother after drive by" – I love it. Why do you vote him down?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    167

    @huckmeabone: why so angry. Grab a beer and absolve yourself to a life surrounded by liberal and pc idiots. Keep fighting the good fight.

    Oh btw most PC losers I know get their kids into French immersion and somehow expense all sorts of stuff in their numbered business. It's not just immigrants with ruthless self interest. Welcome to the new world, same as the old world.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Mental Midget Says:
    168

    @huckmeabone:

    Right on, right on, drill baby drill! California is no place for Mexicans, specially good white folk places like Los Angeles and San Diego. Just going by those names, there should be no latinos there.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Mental Midget Says:
    169

    @huckmeabone:

    Kepp dem third worlders outta here. Gotta keep the soft under belly of white society free of dem foreign devils. Keep dem away from the lavish lifestyles of the vast trailer parks in the south. Don't want dem darkies to be ruining a pure white paradise like that.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Mental Midget Says:
    170

    huckmeabone tells me dem third worlders can't rise up to the first world level of our trailer parks. They all the same trashy third worlders. Same way we are all the same good folk in white paradise. Keep dem away.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    171

    @Mental Midget: Stop being so damned PC, you'll give realpaul and huckmeabone the vapours. It's "The Angels" and "Saint Dick". Oh, and I'll be visiting Saint Francis again; I do love the Golden Gate Bridge.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Mental Midget Says:
    172

    @oneangryslav2:

    Gee Willikers! I hope you are posting from behind the Iron Curtain. I'm callin the CIA!

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    Devore Says:
    173

    @Anonymous: Spectrum would be scary enough on its own even with 0 listings. Yikes.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    What can you get for $300k in San Diego? Something nice? 2-beds, 2 baths, granite, 2 parking, and a view in a good neighbourhood? Anyone know?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    175

    @Dropper:

    So the purchase of property in Canada (instead of their home country) is an indirect way of procuring citizenship.

    No it's not. Owning RE in Canada is not in any way a qualification to immigrate.

    If someone want to argue the contrary, give us a quote and link to the Canada Immigration website.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @huckmeabone: "I was talking about us. We are the ones destroying our own country. "

    Us? Who exactly do you think "we" are? Your comments are in the wrong place. This is a real estate blog.

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    "A-sharp" Says:
    177

    @jesse: "Out of interest, what things?"

    -

    -

    -Cost of building in canada. Replacement cost will always be substantial.

    -The potential for an "inflation scare".

    This is what pulls the 15% off the top in my mind and makes me only 85% sure that we will have a substantial correction.

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    Anonymous Says:
    178

    @oneangryslav2: Diego doesn't translate to Dick – that would be Riccardo.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    179

    @“A-sharp” Accountant:

    -The potential for an “inflation scare”.

    An inflation scare necessarily means a big increase in interest rates. What do you think that would do for RE prices?

    Regarding building costs, it costs no more to actually build a house here than in Montreal, etc. What's different is land costs, and those are driven by the market price of the house, not the other way around.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    180

    @Jeff:

    What can you get for $300k in San Diego?

    No palace, but not too shabby:

    http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/6443-Richard-S

    Note the same house sold for $425K in 2004. Which is about what a comparable house would have sold for in Vancouver in 2004.

    But of course San Diego is completely different from Vancouver, because.. because… oh yeah, it has good weather.

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    Strataman Strataman Says:
    181

    @jesse: Us? Who exactly do you think “we” are? Your comments are in the wrong place. This is a real estate blog."

    I agree generally for instance the Chinese people for the most part are extremely sensitive to and very well informed to what a place is really worth. They are also the best when it comes to strata preventative maintenance. If there is a bubble or is not has nothing to do with "race buyers" but more to do with stupid buyers. Generally the stupid buyers are white young Canadians although with out a doubt there are stupid buyers in every class of race or economic income level especially BOOMERS! (I am a boomer), so I feel qualified to criticize! :-) Foreign buying has little impact on the bubble, only the very few foreigners who are as naive as your typical Gen X buyer contribute to the bubble.

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    superboomtime Says:
    182

    Bear listen to me we buy our way in to this country and buy up all your house and rent to you give you good service in return for you pay my mortgage. If you don't want us here then you can leave. I came here as refugee since my mom spank me as kid. Started out buying condo or three and now make lots of money. Very simple way to make money in this country if smart.

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    huckmeabone Says:
    183

    Mental Midget

    I'm not white. You rambled on about whites without reading between the lines. You are a mental midget

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    zorro Says:
    184

    we are going down…what happened?

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/27e43fe8-741c-11df-87f5

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    185

    @zorro:

    What happened?

    The real estate disease, crime, shitty rental options…this is the only place I know of where a dark basement is considered acceptable accommodations. Europeans must be horrified when they see people paying to live in dungeons.

    My only beef with the list is that most of the cities ranked behind Vancouver are actually better.

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    Is Canada the only country in the G20 not at the World Cup of Soccer, World Record Real Estate prices but third world soccer country.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    SensibleOne Says:
    187

    Billions being sucked out of the Canadian economy by foriegners leaching off the system. If things are so bad in these shitholes like the Phillipines, India and China etc, why aren't these people working at changing the system for thebetter in their own countries. This PC idiot generosity guilt trip is bleeding us dry. Instead of redirecting the money we pay them they send it all out of the country and we end up with zero except the cost of feeding them , hospitizing them and educating them while they're here, zero return except the PC swoon "OOOOOO aren't we generous." Meanwhile Canadians can't get an MRI for years etc. Its PC shit like this that cause a huge drain on the tax resources that we suffer from not having by reduced services for all Canadians and higher taxes to support these people who have decided to come for a free lunch becuse their own politics, culture, religion and interpersonal relationships with their own countrymen has turned their own countries into toilets.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/Canada+draws+growing+

    http://www.vancouversun.com/Canada+draws+growing+

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    Mental Midget Says:
    188

    Omg, are you serious you are not white? Hahahaahaha.

    This is what you will say “but Mr. White people I stuck up for you..against the cries of my own”
    Mr. White people “Then you are not only stupid you are also a traitor”.

    Hahahaahahaha. You are a joke. Mental Midget indeed.

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    Anonymous Says:
    189

    "If things are so bad in these shitholes like the Phillipines, India and China etc, why aren’t these people working at changing the system for thebetter in their own countries"

    you're not only an idiot you are completely clueless too.

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    Bob Lucas Says:
    190

    Seeing that most commentators here are gentle intellectuals, here is a recent paper on the effect of geography on the elasticity of supply for housing:

    http://real.wharton.upenn.edu/~saiz/GEOGRAPHIC%20

    There are significant parallels with what is happening in Vancouver.

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    GB Says:

    At gas station today. Guy pulls up in powder blue new ferrari. He gets out. Mid 30s, pants hanging low gangsta style (dude you are mid-30s for Gods sake), tattoo’d arms. Thuggish look.

    Man I am sick of the new Vancouver

    —————————————————————

    I was downtown last night, on South Granville and this pretty much sums up the male crowd that hangs out there on the weekends. I've never seen so much Ed Hardy in one place in my life. I was starting to think it was a Jersey Shore theme night down there.

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    Mental Midget Says:
    192

    @SensibleOne:

    Dem damn foreign workers. Using loopholes, like labour shortages in Canada to leach the system by using this insidious thing called work. Severely affecting our medical system by becoming nurses, this is unacceptable. Their tax
    dollars are dirty money and have no benefit to our society.

    They say they are coming for higher pay, but I know they are just running from their shithole nations. Canadians never migrate to other provinces or countries like the US for higher pay.

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    193

    Went to family members grad ceremony in Langley. It was quite an eye opener. Probably 95 % of the class was Caucasian. Most of the other 5 % were acknowledged as foreign students, as they thanked their host families . If not mistaken, foreign students pay over $10,000 /year.

    Personally, I think this is BS, as it gives a skewed view of actual enrollment. Some school districts actually have staff whose role is to facilitate this .

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    194

    Re: Foreign "investment"

    It was my understanding that while Canada foresaw Hong Kong citizens bailing, the orignal criteria was that they had to invest in ventures that did not include RE. However, for some reason, that was bypassed so that the HK expatriates could simply buy up any/all real estate aka " my huzzba buy tree and I buy tree ".

    Being beholden to foreign buyers is never a good idea…it gives a false sense of security and displaces those who waited their turn in the pecking order.

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    Absinthe Says:
    195

    @Alpha_Bear: Dude, I'm not sure why you're riding my ass so hard, without the benefit of KY, even! *g*

    The links *you provided* show greater than 6 months inventory and prices stable or up MoM which I *mentioned*. Since Mohican's model highly correlates MOI to price drops after 6 MOI it is worth talking about why that happens sometimes and why RE bubbles don't bomb out the same way tulip bubbles do, 6 months to correction.

    Kelowna may be stable since 2007, but that doesn't mean it is sitting at fundamentals that make sense or that there won't be further price drops, which is WHAT I WAS SAYING.

    Unless you can show that prices are dropping MoM in all categories with greater than 6 MOI, or you're asserting that Kelowna is at it's bottom and won't see any price deflation, you and I don't have a bloody problem.

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    Alpha_Bear Says:
    196

    Absinthe,

    My only complaint with you is that you don't provide any data to back up your assertions.

    Real estate sales in the Okanagan are the lowest they have been in years, while inventory is the highest it has been in years. Prices will drop eventually, so relax and enjoy the crash.

    I'm currently out of the market, but intend to buy my next property for roughly a third of what it might sell for today.

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    SensibleOne Says:
    197

    Mental Midget. Low cost immigrants serve to keep the incomes of Canadians down. There is huge unemployment in this country, whats this talk about a labor shortage? Nonsense. If the low pay immigrants were supposed to keep wage inflation down that has certainly worked, why pay a Canadian a decent wage if a Phillipino or Pakistani will do it for less right? The Trudeau government in the seventies designed a policy called the '7 % Solution' to keep locals unemployed. At the same time they shut down Canadian trade schools because it was cheaper to import a low wage immigrant than to train a Canadian. This immigrant policy doesn't work for Canadians except the PC ass sucks who make huge government salaries and get guaranteed pensions so that they do not ever have to deal with the aftereffects of low wages, pooe education and guilt guilt guilt.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    198

    @Bob Lucas:

    here is a recent paper on the effect of geography on the elasticity of supply for housing

    Forgot the fancy equations, declining real rents mean actual supply of housing in Vancouver has been outpacing demand.

    There isn't any more to it than that.

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    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    199

    #101 realpaul:

    I agree, Gordo will go down as probably the worst premier in BC's history. The BC Rail scandal unfolded shortly after he was in power, and it has taken 7 Frikkin years to get to trial.

    His legacy will be simply as an planted puppet to sell BC's public assets out to vested interests.

    Let's face it …..democracy is dead.

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    Anonymous Says:
    200

    @SensibleOne:

    Fair enough, low wage immigrants can push wages down and as you were saying, that is entirely the fault of our government . Although there is high unemployment, there are still shortages in certain fields of work, that was what I was talking about. This is also the fault of the government and parents for not promoting math and science in our education system. Your original post appeared to blame the immigrants. As you suggested for them, you should work to change your country. This is not well accomplished by lurking forums and preaching hate of immigrants.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Democracy is dead? What a ridiculous exaggeration. Everywhere people constantly claim, "Democracy is dead," whenever their preferred policies are not enforced by the government. Suck it up. The rest of the public did not vote in accordance with your views. That's democracy.

    You think the government of the day is poor? Fine, you can have that opinion. But to say that democracy is dead when the government has not used coercive force to maintain power and there are still free elections? Laughable.

    You can say that when the cops or the military are out in the street preventing people from voting and organizing.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    202

    @NO-LYMPICS:

    I agree, Gordo will go down as probably the worst premier in BC’s history.

    Worse than the guy who's trying to make himself a hero by leading the anti-HST campaign?

    I don't think so.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    203

    Democracy is dead in the sense the so-called elected reps are toads to the dictator(ie prime minister or premier) or at the civic level they are lead by the nose by the staff and stupid agendas.

    Was talking with a friend who told me about some poor smuck in Vancouver who shut down his business after 30 years due to the new bike lane takes over what was once parking spots.

    Democracy is do the people in office represent the best and better interests of the public, without stepping on the minority. IMHO, they are overpaid toads sucking up the perks. Cops and military not in streets ? miss the Olympics ? Howzabout an example of where democracy is alive and well.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    204

    #202 patriotz:

    Yeah, I forgot about Zalmster…..(one of your pet peeves.

    However, Zalmster had the decency/guts to bail after one term. Campbell reminds me of Nero.

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    acefupn Says:
    205

    A few Olympic Village listings have started to appear on the MLS System: http://www.6717000.com/181athletes/listings/

    I think the rest are being sold by Rennie and are not on MLS? It would be interesting to know how these prices compare.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    206

    @NO-LYMPICS:

    However, Zalmster had the decency/guts to bail after one term.

    It had nothing to do with decency or guts. He had to step down because he was facing criminal charges.

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    superhappytime Says:
    207

    Here's actual video of a bear at his home enjoying a sunny afternoon. Enjoy.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    NO-LYMPICS Says:
    208

    #206: patriotz

    Zalmster era was messy, but he paid his own legal bill.

    When the NDP got in, they changed the rules so that the public had to pay the legal bill for provincial politicians, which benefitted Glen Clark. Clark would have gone bankrupt if he had to pay the legal bill. Clark was able to get the best legal representation, and in my view set the template for future politicians who know have the public purse to cover their asses. In addition, I heard from one of Clark's wifes(in the public school system) co-workers she was on paid stress leave during the ordeal.

    I think the entire BC political scene has gotten worse since Zalmsters' days

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    LightsOut Says:
    209

    @Anonymous.

    "-The potential for an “inflation scare”.

    The inflation/deflation thing is something I have been thinking about too.

    My take is we see deflation first, certainly for the next few years.

    Maybe inflation later, as some kind of desperate measure by the authorities, if in fact this is possible. Its possible also that here in Canada our experience may well be different than outcomes elsewhere, but again not probable in my opinion.

    My reasons are:

    1. I don't see the immediate catalyst for inflation – i.e. our money is debt based and inflation needs a ratchet mechanism in that income must increase to meet the first wave of price increases. This means more debt for the average person – I just don't see this happening here or the US, because we are overborrowed. For it to happen the government must incur this debt by itself, and then get the money out into the economy, and I don't see this happening in the short term.

    2. A large share of most western government obligations are indexed to inflation (state pensions etc) and a large measure of gov debt rolls over in the short term. This means the debt markets can put an effective brake on excess government borrowing. So they would have to effectively destroy the bond markets before they can inflate. Granted this is not happening here – yet – but it is in Europe and CDS on US government debt is beginning the long creep upwards.

    3. History shows inflation is not normally the mechanism whereby large debt is handled – i.e. most debt crises are settled in a low inflation environment. I don't have a link for this assertion handy but I can probably find it.

    4. The big problem in western economies is delevering which looks set to persist for many years (check this on Steve Keen's blog http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/12/01/deb…. Goverments have tried to stimulate to offset this but this process looks doomed to me as the debts incurred are enormous and essentially counter-productive. Witness the reaction in Europe against deficit spending and towards austerity (also now beginning in the US).

    I know that governments would like to inflate and they may well find a way to do it, but its not obvious to me they can do it and they don't seem to be achieving this object in spite of the biggest stimulus in history, by far.

    Your thoughts?

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    @“A-sharp” Accountant: "The potential for an 'inflation scare'. "

    An inflation scare will decrease, not increase, prices. Affordability is eroded due to high interest rates, which is disastrous when debt levels are high. From an even more fundamental perspective, interest rates become more uncertain so a larger discount is required.

    The bond market seems to be all but ignoring the possibility of an "inflation scare" FWIW.

    For construction costs, food for thought, the price an investor pays consists of land and building. If replacement costs for the building increase what is preventing land prices from falling? A rational investor only buys when the total price paid is not out of line with rents.

    We will know if construction costs are markedly increasing when rents outpace inflation, otherwise land prices simply fall until total prices align with rents.

    I am not 100% bearish either but for different reasons: it may be population growth will be above recent levels which could force rents higher. I'm also trying to reconcile why rental yields in other parts of the world are so low and whether such a phenomenon could be manifesting itself in Vancouver.

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    SensibleOne Says:
    211

    Ano 200, blaming the parents doesn't have anything to do with governments refusal to fund trade schools..c'mon man, get real here. They are not raining Canadians because the immigrant bleeding heart lobbies are making it impossible to get a trade here so that favors the argument of immigration…very PC mentality. Its a vicious circle for Canadians. Do you not think there would be a lot more girls who'd like to be nurses here? Ever look at the 5 year wait list for a seat and the fact that in BC you have to have a B Sc to qualify? Not so in Pakistan or the Phillipines right? So wheres the level playing field of opportunity for Canadians?

    Low paying immigrants do not 'may' cause wages of Canadians to be held down by offering CDN e,mployers a low cost solution, they 'DO' cause CDN wages to be held down and this HAS been a device that is being used by the CDN government to hold CDNs back while also developing the public service infrasctucture of union jobs in welfare case workers and social workers that manage the Canadian poor. Instead of offering a Phillipino a free ride, why not train a Canadian as they do in Denmark with the money that we're not sending overseas and pissing away of immigrant resettlement programs? I bet if we analyzed the cost we would find that funding Canadians would be cheaper and bring in more revenue from the higher wage expectations.

    The PC industry is an industry owned an operated by a lot of assholes who benefit from immigrants whereas they wouldn't from canadians….got to wonder why they fight and scream to keep the staus quo?

    Let the Phillipino's Chinese Afghans Somali's Jamaicans etc agitate to clean up their own toilets and make a better life for their own citizens. Why does Canada have to be a dumping ground for these shitheads who particapte all their lives in the misery and corruption that drives them out. Of course you can't live in Somalia, is that Canadas fault..no its the Somali's shitting on the Somali's. Why do we need to act as a pressure valve for Chinese anti social sentiment. let the Chinese fight for a better life in China, why should the Canadian taxpayer shoulder the burden? These people do not want to be anything but economic refugees and the PC argument is destroying the economic fabric of this country. We need to pressure those countries to take better care of their citizens so that they don't keep flooding over here and pushing people out of hospital beds , jobs etc and helping our cynical politicians keep our standard of living the lowest in the western world.

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    Anonymous Says:
    212

    @SensibleOne:

    Like I was saying, why not go and change things then. You claim immigrants can just simply change their countries, so why don't you change yours. I think you have a valid point in criticising the government, as it truly is their fault, although It doesn't matter who's in power, the corporations dictate policy, and they want low wages, simple as that.

    I think you should back off of criticising immigrants. You make it sound like they are all on welfare, that is not the case. The vast majority are hard working and have come here for higher wages and a better life. They are here for the same reasons many educated Canadians go to the US to work. This commonly called the brain drain, and it definitely leaves a hole in certain professions, nursing is one of them.

    Of course there are people abusing the refugee status, and many who want a free ride, but this is a small percentage of immigrants and thus you should not be viewing all immigrants in the same manor. I've seen my fair share of multigenerational Canadians milking the system as well, so let's not make this a trait of only immigrants.

    I urge you to try to change policy.

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    Chilled Says:
    213

    @superhappytime:

    207 superhappytime Says:

    June 12th, 2010 at 3:05 pm

    Here’s actual video of a bear at his home enjoying a sunny afternoon. Enjoy.

    +++++++++++++

    His home? The guys on a day pass.

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    Look what you can buy in Hawaii for $1.5 Million LESS than that depressing Point Grey place. You will have enough left over for a few Ferrari's and a Learjet. Unbelievable!

    http://honolulu.craigslist.org/oah/reb/1764801292

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    Limey Says:
    215

    @Starving Artist:

    Why are people comparing Van to SF and SD?

    I work in Design and Advertising and the industry is a good litmus test to how much money can be made in a city.

    My position in SF & SD starts at around 225-250k – in a big agency you might be looking at 300k. In Vancouver I would be grovelling to get 150k. Bear in mind that I would also be paying a lot less tax in the states. Plus if I contracted, I could also write some of my mortgage off my taxes.

    100k+ a year makes a lot of difference when you buy a house. Let's compare apples to apples people. I do like Vancouver – but putting it up against SF, SD, and NY is like putting your lime green Vespa scooter next to a GSX. It comes with a lot of hype and looks pretty in pictures – but when you hit the road you are left standing.

    p.s. Why not move to the states I hear you ask? Well my wonderful wife is from Vancouver, and like most people from the 604, regard it as some sort of gift from god to the rest of the world. Also, someone filled the US with Americans, and there's only so long I can put up with that crowd.

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    @KWL: I agree with everything you said about downtown Granville St. It's truly horrible. No other city do I go to the bar district and when walking around, actually feel scared.

    One correction tho….South Granville is actually the other side of the bridge, and quite different….with the exception of that horrible Joey's at Granville and Broadway…

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    huckmeabone Says:
    217

    I didn't know Midget (mental) could cherry pick. You don't know how to read. You seriously think that Immigration is the solution.

    Then you must agree that constant buying with borrowed money is a good economic strategy in the name of progress.

    Uncontrolled Immigration from wherever into a country with increasing unemployment numbers isn't a great idea but its assholes like you that make it difficult for people like me to speak the truth.

    Every immigrant wants the door closed behind him. It's human nature.

    Your response will be something pathetic but it wont change the reality of what most people know but are afraid to say out loud.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    218

    @Eddie:

    Nice house in Hawaii.

    The owner of the depressing abode in Pt. Grey should be made aware of this place so he can move there and live off the 1.5 million left over.

    It's a 1000% improvement to where he is now.

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    "They (immigrants) are here for the same reasons many educated Canadians go to the US to work. This commonly called the brain drain, and it definitely leaves a hole in certain professions, nursing is one of them."

    This is just a fallacy. Canada is very much unlike the US in that legal immigration is dominated by unskilled workers. Only 18% of immigrants to Canada actually have skills. The rest are spouses and children (which the govt conveniently classes as skilled) while the rest are family class.

    There's actually an article in the Sun today about Filipinos becoming the largest source of immigrants to Canada. Look at the jobs they hold: waitressing, 7-11, McDonalds. I am sure many of them are hard-working honest people but when you have free (at source) health care this is a very large net cost to CAnada). The facts are that more than half of all immigrants live below the poverty line.

    As for the actual brainy Filipinos — the engineers, doctors and the like — they do go to the US or here to Singapore, where taxes are low and incomes high.

    Though there are many maids here and all they talk about is Canada, how easy it is to get in and how easy it is to stay. Just the other day my wife was talking to the friend's maid. She just got a (fake) degree from a school in the Philippines and she's all set for her move.

    As I said before, nice people and I don't begrudge them a bit for wanting to better their lives. But to argue that there is anything close to a brain drain is simply fantasy.

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    Mental Midget Says:
    220

    @huckmeabone:

    Oh, you're still here? You were already completely owned. Your mental capacity can't even comprehend what I'm saying.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    221

    These "rich" folks from New Jersey remind me of so many "rich" home owners in Vancouver.

    Check out the list of debts they owe on a $79,000 household income.

    http://www.zillow.com/blog/real-housewife-of-njs-

    Keeping up appearance is damn hard, and it all catches up with you in the end.

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    huckmeabone Says:
    222

    Mental

    You speak half truths.

    You're no different than Bob Rennie. Anytime you would like to deliberate the pros and cons of responsible immigration I'll be here.

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    Anonymous Says:
    223

    @chip:

    They are here for the same reasons Canadians go to the US, for higher pay, that was my point. The brain drain part was just to highlight the brain drain from Canada to the US. It was the show that people can leave places for higher pay. Sensible one was saying people leave countries like China and India because they are a toilet, which is an ignorant statement, and shows that he has never been in either place.

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    Mental Midget Says:
    224

    @huckmeabone:

    I didn't say anything about immigration. I only said that people should not hate immigrants. The corporations are the driving force behind lax immigration policy. You and Sensibleone were both preaching hatred of immigrants. This is just a waste of time. Midget out.

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    huckmeabone Says:
    225

    ..and that's why I said you couldn't read because I never once said I hate myself (immigrants). Vancouverites are so quick to jump to conclusions.

    As soon as you mention immigrant even if the statement reads: " and then the immigrant poured gas on his wife and set her on fire"

    All you guys hear is immigrant.

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    Mental Midget Says:
    226

    @huckmeabone:

    You don't have to say it. You are preasching it. Take a look at your words. Saying Indians and Chinese are laughing at white people and will get together and swoop in to destroy white society. What do you call this? Are you freakin clueless?

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    Anonymous Says:
    227

    can we get back to real estate now?

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    huckmeabone Says:
    228

    Mental now you are being a bull in denying the obvious. If I have to preach to you about global dominance and population patterns in certain countries then you are truly fucked.

    All of what you are saying has been said in the local papers for years. I don't see things getting better. school boards cutting back, hospital waiting lines bigger than ever, insurance costs more than anytime in canadian history and on and on it goes…

    Listen to my WORDS I am talking about RESPONSIBLE IMMIGRATION. if you have a problem with that you are an idiot as I suspected

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    SensibleOne Says:
    229

    Anon 223, India not a toilet? man, you're telling us that you have been to India and are here to announce that its not a festering sewer? Oh Man, its you who've never been, I 've been there plenty. The sidewalks run with sewage, human and animal. I've had to step over dead bodies that have lain out on the sidewalk all day (and maybe more) whereas someone will freak out if you step over a cow ruminiating in the middle of the road. In every city there are thousands of people who have cut their own limbs off and their childrens too so that they can look more miserable when they beg outside the banks and shopping malls. The interior walls in the hospitals are covered with betal juice spit…..you are kidding that you've been to India right? Liar!!

    Phillipines, dodn't even get me started on the corruption, the rats and the cockroaches in Manilla, Angelas , Cebu and Davao, complete sewers with evil bureaucrats who have private armies to enforce mandatory prostitution graft extortion and of course licensing. You haven't a clue about the these people you're defending dude.

    China, have you ever been to China??????? I thought not. people are so shit scared of the authorities there that you can't take a shit in your hotel room without being photographed, its an absolute dictatorship. Did you go on a guided tour and stay inside the bubble?

    In all these cases (and I can tell you a thousand other stories) these are local people who are shitting on local people. Why should it become Canadas problem that these people don't have the guts to fashion a decent lives for themselves instead of bringing there third world shit over here? The US as you mention has the same problem with Mexico. Americans aren't anti immigration, nor am I. But why should the west absorb all these economic asshole immigrants who dodn't lift a finger to help themselves in theri own countries. A great percentage of the time these same immigrants are of the class that has historicaLLY ABUSED PEOPLE IN THEIR OWN COUNTRIES. If Mexico won't clean up its own act why should the US stand there and have to clean up the trash that spills over the border. The Mexicans are killing Mexicans, not Americans killing mexicans. Why aren't the Mexicans demanding better government?

    I've also been to many countries in the Middle East and don't try to tell me that that social system isn't barbaric and a complete lack of morality. Hey……..when you slap a sack over your Moms head I want to come and see. Wait till some asswipe beats her in the street with a bamboo cane for missing prayers. Tell me that these are the type of assholes you want in your neioghborhood. I gotta tell you dude, the PC koolaid has blocked any common sense you were born with.

    Canada first, the rest of the world second…capiche?

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    Mental Midget Says:
    230

    @huckmeabone:

    Dude, you are just sugar coating your hate speech. I'll repeat again, i don't care about responsible migration, that is not why i am talking to you. I am opposed to your hate speech, it's realy quite simple and I have said it many times now. Do you still not understand?

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    Rent"Poor" Says:
    231

    This table is compiled based on the latest numbers reported by PaulB from Jun 7 to Jun 11.

    "W Total" is the total from Monday to Friday.

    "Avg" = "W Total" /5

    "M Total" = "Avg" * 22 ( 22 days in a month)

    New Price Change Sold

    Mon 284 246 96

    Tue 295 190 190

    Wed 256 168 168

    Thu 265 167 99

    Fri 230 165 100

    W Total 1330 936 653

    Avg 266 187 130

    M Total 5852 4118 2873

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    huckmeabone Says:
    232

    SENSIBLEONE is one of the few out there who not only knows the truth but they have the balls to say it.

    Common sense isn't that common just ask Mental Midget

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    Anonymous Says:
    233

    @SensibleOne:

    You only see what you look at. I have been to many of those places. I know many people from places I have not been. Many of them miss home and family. Yes, there are some very undesirable places in every country. You obviously missed out on the good things like the people, food and culture, architecture, historical sites and nature. You're the typical westerner who only cares about appearances. You only feed your ego by calling these places a shithole. I can look past this and see the rapid development taking place. The standard of living is increasing tenfold. I used to live in Thailand, when I first arrived, I thought it was the worst shithole on earth, but I grew to love it, for much different reasons that I love Canada.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @patriotz: To be fair though, there was a huge influx of rich HK people fleeing the communists and Taiwanese people taking money out to avoid the possible fallout from all the independence talk. Hell, my highschool graduating class was like 80% Chinese! Before grade 10, there were very few non-CBC in my high school. After grade 10, boom, HK and Taiwanese students everywhere. When we went through our graduation yearbook, there was lots of people who we never ever saw. We figure they are probably rushed from ESL to graduation. My school's ESL class went from like 2 to around 10 when I left 5 years later.

    A lot of these people were rich! They either cashed out of HK during their RE boom or was in right business at the right time. You can't deny that they left a permanent mark on Vancouver RE. I always felt there is a change in the RE mindset pre and post the huge Chinese influx.

    There are a lot of mainland Chinese $ coming in as well now that's slowly replacing the HK and Taiwna inflows, or possibly outflow now. However this time I think it's a little different because they came in at a housing market top not at a bottom. There is an effect on housing but I think this time is limited and not as widespread as in the early 90s.

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    Mental Midget Says:
    235

    @huckmeabone:

    Now I do care about responsible immigration. We should not let in completely clueless racists. Time to pack your bags huck.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @coastal: I read in National Post that the recent ranking of millionaires count around the world has China at just over 600,000 official millionaires. There are probably equal number of corrupt officals with a lot of money. So just 5% coming to Vancouver will have a big impact. However without a constant replacement source, the effect will probably not last more than 3 to 5 years.

    My sis has a lot of mainland customers and the kind of story they tell about corruption, bribery, how they made some of their money are just crazy. China is really the wild wild west of capitalism in the world right now.

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    huckmeabone Says:
    237

    Ok I will write very slowly for you Mental.

    Do you know what a metaphor is?

    "The underbelly of white society" is you, the PC assholes.

    The Indians and Chinese coming to get you means proving you wrong about their perceived benign nature.

    look who's fucking clueless.

    Over and out

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    Mental Midget Says:
    238

    @huckmeabone:

    Unbelievable. Are you really that stupid? Again, you are saying that a couple races are not benign and out to get us. This has got to be the very definition of racist. You are not even white. Maybe it's your race that is evil, trying to cause friction between others.

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    Anonymous Says:
    239

    " The Indians and Chinese coming to get you means proving you wrong about their perceived benign nature."

    Could you explain exactly what "the Indians and Chinese coming to get you" means?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Bill Bad Says:
    240

    @patriotz:

    patriotz Says:

    I agree, Gordo will go down as probably the worst premier in BC’s history.

    Worse than the guy who’s trying to make himself a hero by leading the anti-HST campaign?

    I don’t think so.

    ===========

    Patriotz: With your demonstrated analytical skills, you, of course, realize:……. they’re all turds!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    specuskeptic specuskeptic Says:
    241

    Dear Race-Obsessed fuckfaces,

    Go to stormfront.org or some other bullshit site to discuss your issues with immigration, miscegenation, racial purity, "the good ole days", furriners, eugenics, what you keep in your bomb shelters, how to keep your tinned food supply safe, water purification, 911 inside job theories and the one world guvemint.

    This is a real estate blog.

    Again, just to be clear, please fuck off.

    Sincerely,

    A reader who came to read about real estate…. in Vancouver

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    I think what is worthy of discussion is how immigration policy affects house prices and whether the change in demographics that results can cause house prices to bubble, or even stay inflated.

    I don't see too many immigrants in Victoria but their prices are high nonetheless.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Chilled Says:
    243

    Push Canadian population to 100 million, scholar argues

    Read more: http://www.theprovince.com/Push+Canadian+populati

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    McLovin Says:
    244

    Does anyone have anything to say about Vancouver Real Estate?

    Seriously?

    PS – Gold Bugs, Anti-Imm, Pro-Imm go away and post somewhere else please!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    huckmeabone Says:
    245

    No more immigration talk ..sorry

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    246

    http://nourielroubini.blogspot.com/2010/06/roubin

    a nice lecture about bubbles.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    247

    In France, non residents , even if they are French, must pay 26% tax on capital gain. I heard that in Iran or Japan, a non native cannot buy, unless married to a native.

    Today I was told that foreign investors cannot buy houses in the USA as easily as in Canada. Is this true? Are the regulations very different?

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    Anonymous Says:
    248

    FT: "If we were going to live in North America, we’d probably set up home in Honolulu…"

    ——————————–

    Since when is Honolulu in North America? Don't these guys have a map?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    back to real estate:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inv

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    250

    @Anonymous:

    Today I was told that foreign investors cannot buy houses in the USA as easily as in Canada. Is this true?

    Completely untrue. You don't even have to set foot in the US to buy RE there. During the bubble suckers in the UK, etc. were even buying crackshacks over the Internet.

    Some states do however charge offshore owners higher taxes, which is something I advocate for BC as well.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    251

    Toronto gets real:

    We're in a bubble – now what?

    It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Our recovery from the Great Recession happened faster than expected, we got in the mood to buy again, and the housing market spontaneously returned to bidding wars and double-digit gains. Experts say we’re in a bubble that’s ready to pop. The question is, how bad will it be?

    And remember, Toronto is only about 70% as expensive as Vancouver.

    BTW as I have said before, a bust in the GTA is the Cons' biggest nightmare. The "recovery" from the recession was simply driven by RE and debt, and when this mirage evaporates, look out.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    scullboy Says:
    252

    Holy crap!

    I don't think I've ever seen such a low signal to noise ratio on VCI. Even the tipping threat wasn't nearly this bad.

    After wading through a lot of tinfoil hat postings, I'd like to offer an observation. When you look at the price history of Van real estate, then check that grim little property out in Point Grey (a well named place if ever there was one), you can only come to once conclusion:

    Vancouver property owners are the greediest, stupidest, most gullible sons o' guns on the entire planet and about once a generation they get fleeced by a group of slick con artists who know exactly how to stroke the egos of the locals.

    They use the same phrases over an over like "everyone wants to live here, people are flooding in from Alberta/America/Hong Kong/mainland China/Korea/Russia/Iran, you better hurry up and buy or you'll be priced out forever!" The locals fall for it every fucking time as if it were the first. Then the whole thing falls apart and people blink, look at each other and say things like "who could have known?"

    The only difference with this cycle is that it coincided with a period of easy credit and lax landing practices, which amplified the effects.

    There's no point in blaming foreigners. I think if you look at the data there aren't enough people coming to Van, and those that are aren't pulling in enough money to fuel this boom. Canadian immigration's got its problems but there's no point in blaming others for the stupidity and greed of the locals.

    @San Franciscan, I'm with you man. Van's a city in a very pretty setting but other then that, there's not a lot going on there.

    Well, I'm off to Washington D.C. Much to my surprise, my new employers are sending me off for a week's training on some software. Washington wasn't my first choice (that was NYC Boston of Chicago), but at least they didn't send me to Indianapolis.

    Supra if you're out there, techie nerds are at the bottom of the ladder in business. Believe me I know, I spent 6 months doing Linux server work for Morgan Stanley. That shit's getting farmed out to India at a scary rate.

    Be smart and get into something else… project management's a good bet. You'll have to give up your silly little die cast action figures but at least you'll gain credibility.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    "a bust in the GTA is the Cons’ biggest nightmare."

    It also increases the chances for some form of a bailout.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymouse Says:
    254

    @Limey:

    "My position in SF & SD starts at around 225-250k – in a big agency you might be looking at 300k. In Vancouver I would be grovelling to get 150k….

    100k+ a year makes a lot of difference when you buy a house."

    Wow. If I were in your position I would get the hell out of this place as quickly as possible. In additon to the superior career opportunities, SF is an awesome city and I would move there in a heartbeat if I could make $150k more, heck even $50k more. No-brainer. Also its a cheap 2 hour flight from Vancouver. Your wife could visit home whenever she wants.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    255

    @Tom: #249

    A perfect summary of the state of real estate in the article you posted, very sensible compared to the bullshit coming from the real estate industry douchebags.

    Of course this bull market is interest rate driven, for 30 years now, but particularly the last 8.

    Foreigners have very little to do with driving up prices, not enough to be significant anyway.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    256

    @Best place on meth:

    I agree, this is a great article. The author calmly makes the point that real estate is cyclical and that we've been in a "super cycle" for the past 30 years. He also points out that memories are short (of the previous cycles) and the current trend is believed to be sustainable forever. Even (some) of our parents have fallen victim to this thought pattern, and have encouraged us (in our 20s and 30s) to buy real estate, at nearly any cost, as this uptrend has been their experience since after 1982. But now it seems we are hopefully at the end of the cycle and there may come a day when real estate is not seen in the same light as it is today (a sure bet). Just waiting for the next downturn…hopefully soon, though it will surely take years for a bottom to be reached.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Run Buddy Run Says:
    257

    Go Argentina Go

    I believe with this month end expiry ,listings will expire permanently then towards size zero after september 2010.

    Now back to FIFA where Germany will take over Australia and ofcourse in high definition.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Jimmy Says:
    258

    Grow-op was financed by banks

    Forfeiture office seeks mortgage proceeds from seized property

    http://www.theprovince.com/business/Grow+financed

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Superfly Says:
    259

    231 Rent "poor"

    Interesting that almost no-one here discusses the data, other than "Wow listings are high today". MOI is now at 18700/2873 = 6.5!!

    Also, the CREA sponsored posters (Dave, Superbull etc.) barely have to expend any effort disrupting this blog as the anti-PC guys are doing it for them.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    260

    @Jimmy: Grow-op was financed by banks

    Forfeiture office seeks mortgage proceeds from seized property

    http://www.theprovince.com/business/Grow+financed
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Why should RBC and BMO worry, when CHMC is the sucker insurance douchebag? Besides it is impossible to prove that they too are on the take.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    superboomtime Says:
    261

    News to bear. You are closer to your death today than you were yesterday. That mean that everyday you spend renting like loser is a day wasted in your life. You can't get it back bear. You can never get it back. Rent is due in 17 days bear. You make your time.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Grow up-op Says:
    262

    @Jimmy

    nice link.

    that is precisely what is wrong with our country. It is a shame, not that those people grow pot but because they dont pay any taxes and earn tax free money. I make 50k a year and pay 20k in taxes wheras those guys rake in 15k each month tax free.

    It is also a very plausible explanation to the rich asian myth.It aint true, most those rich chinese are involved in the marijuana trade, that is how they became rich in the first place. RE is just a nice vehicule to launder money and is big business in BC.

    Behind each big fortune there is a big crime.

    The hard working immigrant myth is just that , a myth. Anyone who has a job in this country knows that to make 1million dollars you would have to work a lifetime and that is in a good paying job. And still you cant buy a house in Vancouver.

    Welcome to Vancouver in British Colombia, drug capital of North america.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Boombust Says:
    263

    "News to bear. You are closer to your death today than you were yesterday."

    Hmmm…I wonder if God has a long white beard to complement a long flowing robe?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    SensibleOne Says:
    264

    A 233, You're such a lying douchebag. Anyone who's ever lived Thailand knows what a laughable corrupt shithole it is. If you visit you wouldn't notice. What you got on your vacation there was what Carl Jung called 'Tropo', the blinding effect of a foriegn culture on a new arrivals sensibilities. Good thing your weak mind didn't decide on Jeruselam, you may have been here telling us you are Jesus from the 'Jeruselam Effect commom to weak mind minded fools who decide to go local because 'they care so much'. F….off you wanker. tell us something are you getting letters from your Thai girlfriend saying "Oh Anonymous, send me money so I on't have to work in that bad place anymore" or…."I fell in love with you"…or "You were my first customer"…or I'm pregnat with your baby".

    Hey pal, I used to sit in a bar close to Hualumpong until 3am drinking Mekhong and Kao Lau Nam Kang and write those letters for the girls to suck douchebags like you out of thier money. I guess you didn't see how the 'nice' Thai government recently mowed down hundreds at the Erawan temple because they were asking for their democracy back from the asswipe generals who run the whores in Pat Pong and Pattaya. I guess you support the kiddy fuckers who hand out there eh" Cause it's all so beautiful. Only a morally banrupt and ethically deficient moron would support the dictatorship In Thailand with their tourist dollars. Again….you ain't been there either sweetcheeks.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Boombust Says:
    265

    ….”I fell in love with you”…or “You were my first customer”…or I’m pregnat with your baby”.

    You are so…limited.

    Maybe that's how people survive there. Idiot.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Boombust Says:
    266

    "…you may have been here telling us you are Jesus from the ‘Jeruselam Effect…"

    Nah, Id rather the "Toronto Rapture" that was popular a few years back.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    SensibleOne,

    I actually see value in your comments, you tell it how you see it – even if you get voted down. Some posters here have an online persona which is someone totally different than their real life one. And youv'e been to places…

    BTW: In Israel's madhouses (sorry, psychiatric hospitals) many inmates claim to be the "messiah". How can we know one of them is not the real one?

    Regards

    arit

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @scullboy:

    "The only difference with this cycle is that it coincided with a period of easy credit and lax landing practices, which amplified the effects."

    Again, this applies to every city in North America but it is Vancouver that has become the most expensive relative to earnings on the entire continent. And Vancouver isn't even marginally more expensive — it's way out there.

    So the question is what makes Vancouver unique in terms of its insane real estate prices? You need to look at those changes that have correlated with rising real estate prices, and one of those is a drug (and money laundering) industry that his now the province's second biggest.

    Another is the emergence of Vancouver as a destination for Chinese money, both legal and illegal.

    No one is ever going to know the extent of these influences because even the police are next to useless in dealing with it. It is and probably always will be one of those known unknowns.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    269

    @SensibleOne:

    Haha, sounds like you got burned in Thailand and are now taking it out on others. What a sucker.

    That country is no more corrupt than this one, and at the highest level of government we're probably worse. I never came across anyone there as bad as Gordo or Harpo. They are pure scum, like Dick Cheney type scum, and I wouldn't recommend anyone spending their tourist dollars here when we're run by such criminals.

    The Thais had far more patience with those litte red-shirted fuckers than anyone else would have. I'd have mowed them all down on day 2, fucking terrorists that they are.

    Nice way to ask for democracy, by holding a city hostage and then burning it down when they don't get their way.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    paulb. Says:
    270

    FWIW

    35

    5

    0

    For Saturday :)

    Beautiful weekend,got quite the sunburn at Ambleside and checked out the UFC shenanigans. Now let's crack 19k!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    271

    @arit:

    BTW: In Israel’s madhouses (sorry, psychiatric hospitals) many inmates claim to be the “messiah”. How can we know one of them is not the real one?

    Reminds me of a joke: Oprah had five guys on her show last week claiming that they were Jesus. It turns out that only one of the five actually believed that he was Jesus, while the other four were Mexicans who hadn't quite understood the premise of the show.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Strataman Strataman Says:
    272

    @arit: Unfortunately those messiahs are false! Strataman is the true one and only Messiah! :-)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    "Spectrum would be scary enough on its own even with 0 listings. Yikes."

    I always think of Spectrum of the "moderne" vision of Anchor Pointe on Burrard and Pacific.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    274

    "I actually see value in your comments,"

    someone makes racist comments and then someone from israel agrees with him… hmmm…. am i missing something here?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Strataman Strataman Says:
    275

    @Anonymous: Yes you are! Brains! Intellect, Common Sense, No Prejudice, None of which you apparently have! :-)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    276

    "someone makes racist comments and then someone from israel agrees with him… hmmm…. am i missing something here?"

    Yes. It's a real estate blog/forum….

    Tinfoil hats need to be checked at the door. Sidearms and crossbows as well……:palmtoforehead:

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @chip

    Again, this applies to every city in North America but it is Vancouver that has become the most expensive relative to earnings on the entire continent. And Vancouver isn’t even marginally more expensive — it’s way out there.

    I'm pretty sure there were a couple cities in the U.S. that rivaled Vancouver at their peak.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    doug r Says:
    278

    @San Franciscan leaving Raincouver for good:

    I think the prices in San Fran are higher than here. You should find a good cheap place in Stockton or Sacramento, though.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    No More Gordocracies Says:
    279

    @patriotz:

    "Completely untrue. You don’t even have to set foot in the US to buy RE there."

    Right but if one buys there they can live in it or leave it empty as an investment but they now become what is known as a "US Person" and therefore even though they have never set foot in the US they must declare all foreign accounts and all business interests of suffer penalties. Owning investment property in the USA means that the tax rules are different and they must file declarations in the US for their RRSP or pay tax on it. They will then find that it may not be worth it to own a TSFA in Canada because it is taxable under US tax rules and if your accountant knows the right forms to file to get you an exemption for taxes paid in Canada, it takes 4 hours for them to fill out the necessary forms for your TFSA and depending what your accountant charges per hour this is an extra added nuisance.

    Now, if one wants to rent out the property which means it is a business enterprise, the person is not allowed to live in it even part time but if they do they MUST NOT DO ANY KIND OF WORK THEMSELVES on the property including mowing the lawn because since it is a business one needs a work permit to work on the property. A Canadian would have to immigrate or get a work permit as a non resident alien and that is not easy.

    Believe me, most people here who think they can go buy a home in the USA and live in it for more than 6 months are sadly mistaken and really mistaken if they imagine they can rent it out for the rest of the year without landing themselves in jail because they did work on the house during the 6 months they live in it each year. DYODD

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Disbelief Says:
    280

    258
    We need to stop this kind of garbage from getting away with this. We have to seize all assets and send these new immigrants back where they came from to send a strong message that this will not be accepted. I would like to see some strong laws that would quash this get rich quick Asian gang scum in their tracks. This real estate bubble is fueled in part by these vermin. These people are Vietnamese not Chinese.

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    Anyone see all the pretty dots in White Rock?

    From Garth's Blog.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    282

    @SensibleOne:

    Haha, you think you know so much just because you have been somewhere, but you don't know shit. My Dad is Thai. You don't know shit! I can speak Thai and I know what's up. You're just another chump farang eaing at the Macdonalds in Bangkok. Keep travelling, maybe you will learn something fr the locals one day. Hahahahaha. I won't bother to talk to you again, it would take years for you to wipe away your ignorance.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    283

    "Yes you are! Brains! Intellect, Common Sense, No Prejudice, None of which you apparently have!"

    well, no, that's not it. it just struck me as thick with irony, considering the unpleasantness in the first half of the 20th century. either that or you're dumber than you think i am.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    284

    @SensibleOne:

    Drinking till three am writing letters for prositutes. Maybe they gave you a freebie. Hahaha, why don't you F off you loser.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Neptune Says:
    285

    @crabman:

    Mobile homes? Really.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Devore Says:
    286

    @paulb.: Now how about that UFC… didn't they proclaim there wouldn't be any more MMA licenses after the first trial? City must need the money.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Thai Guy Says:
    287

    @SensibleOne:

    You hang out writing letter with lady boy in bar for free blow job, and now you know Thailand. Yet Mang. I'm happy you no like Siam. Don't come back na.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Boombust Says:
    288

    "In Israel’s madhouses (sorry, psychiatric hospitals) many inmates claim to be the “messiah".

    They should become "Jews for Jesus" like Bob Dylan. Problem solved.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

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