Friday Free-for-all!
Put down that Vuvuzela, it’s free-for-all time! It’s Friday and that means it’s time for our open topic economic discussion thread, here are a few stories to kick off the weekend:
-No Canada housing bubble 2010
-No US housing bubble 2005
-Homeowners sell, start renting instead
-Rethinking the American dream
-Millions unclaimed in bank accounts
-Asia attempts to curb property bubbles
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
June 21st, 2010 at 10:31 am
@McLovin:
Hey, you pay property taxes too – they're just hidden in your rent. What? You think your landlord doesn't pass those costs on to you?
June 21st, 2010 at 1:28 am
Look at casinos…they exist because there are always people who think that they can beat the odds. Most end up losing money…and there are lots of them in Richmond too.
June 21st, 2010 at 1:17 am
The Chinese will continue to buy everything and bid everything up right until it completely blows up in their faces.
Chinese GDP (what their Government tells us, anyway) is apparently at 10.5% and they acknowledge a slowing (as well as the IMF) to 9.5% or less. Most independent economists believe that a drop to 6-8% is likely, and there are a growing number of analysts who believe those numbers are seriously cooked (of course they are, but we won't know how much until years later).
Yet RE prices have grown at over 30-40% per year. 100% per year in some places. People are forced to put more "cash" down but the source of that cash is also very likely to be borrowed.
It's a bubble there, and when it pops, it will be extra painful for the speculators who have bought here. Doesn't matter if they're "savers" – that will not buffer a collapse. In fact, could make it worse as these guys have been saving all their lives.
It's going to get pretty ugly folks. And hot sales of this River Green project means absolutely nothing to the guaranteed upcoming collapse in local property values.
June 21st, 2010 at 12:51 am
@No More Gordocracies:
Think about it – the Japanese housing crash, the slowdown in China.
Who's behind both of these?
Asians.
June 21st, 2010 at 12:24 am
@Vanrod:
This one condo doesn't reflect what's going on in the market as a whole. I guess these people missed the memo. Vancouver real estate is on it's last leg.
June 21st, 2010 at 12:13 am
I see that the new condo complex in Richmond sold out in minutes
I saw it on the news
What I also saw was a room full of Chinese and not a single white person.
I'm sick of the politically correct MORONS on this site that say our real estate is not being sold offshore to foreigners and that it doesn't affect the prices here.
I'm not interested in debating this with the industry shills here like Patriotz who are against controls similar to what Australia just brought in.
When all you FOOLS here unite against the industry then let me know. If you are still at the debating stage then all is lost.
Man this city SUCKS along with most of the retards who live here.
June 20th, 2010 at 11:37 pm
McLovin,
The 40 year mortgage expired in October of 2008…it did not "save" the market in 2009/2010…
Please try to keep you Gen Y angst to yourself…there are plenty of Gen X'ers ahead of you still waiting and complaining about the market…
June 20th, 2010 at 10:06 pm
@anon1: That Central 1 report is definitely bearish. I think they have called the market relatively accurately. Looks like at least one economist is reading local blogs!
June 20th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
@4slicesofcheese: "as much as I wish it was all speculation buyers, “To this point, no purchase offers containing subjects have been accepted. That means people are paying in cash.” I think this means the people buying are just that stupidly rich.."
_____
I know that speculation usually implies use of leverage, but that is not necessarily so.
Say a 'family' buys 4 units for $5M, with cash. I'm assuming they don't require 4 units for personal use.
So, why are they buying? As an 'investment'. But what's the current yield on these units? 1%? 2%?? (after taxes, maintenance, etc etc)…
So, why are they buying? Only one reason: expectations of price appreciation.
Thus, they are speculators.
They are buying because they think they'll get price appreciation.
And when the premise of their purchase proves to be incorrect, many will bail, regardless of how wealthy they are.
June 20th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Central 1 Credit Union on the Housing Market
http://tiny.cc/sq3a9
June 20th, 2010 at 9:27 pm
Laugh it up Bulls!
Prices are dropping 3-5% per month and none of your snide remarks or cheerleading can stop it. In 2008 you were saved by 0% interest rates and 40 yr. mortgages. That is the only thing that stopped Vancouver from dropping 40%. Those bullets have been used up and the gun is empty.
I'm quite sure there were a lot of wealthy Asian's in Dubai who "didn't have to sell" when the prices there dropped 50%.
The writing is on the wall and only fools will disagree. Vancouver is toast and the multi year grind down has started and won't stop until prices drop or incomes rise by 40%.
Property Tax is due in 12 days!!!! Foreclosure proceedings begin Sept 3rd if you haven't paid. Thanks so much for the new roof on BC Place. Shame you won't be able to enjoy it because you are a slave to the bank owning an asset declining 3% per month.
PS – I am in Italy right now renting a villa because I rent a place for 34% of the cost of owning it. (Opps – 33% Taxes just went up!)
McLovin
PPS – I meant what I said about property taxes, don't forget to pay for me!
June 20th, 2010 at 9:23 pm
@4slicesofcheese:
A no-subject offer doesn't necessarily imply payment in cash.
June 20th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
@Vanrod
I remember last month looking at these bears and there formula on how much inventory would go up…
Vanrod, here's an English lesson for you from Wiktionary:
It is important to distinguish “their” from “there” and “they’re”. “Their” signifies ownership.
***************************************
A bull who doesn't know how to use a basic English word that signifies ownership. How funny is that?
June 20th, 2010 at 8:21 pm
@Vanrod
Inventory is what it is. Not far off 2008 levels. The numbers don't lie. You have a problem with that?
June 20th, 2010 at 8:13 pm
@Premature Bear Ejaculation:
Good commentary. I remember last month looking at these bears and there formula on how much inventory would go up and I knew it was full of shit. No point saying anything it will just get voted down. This blog is turning into the biggest joke of the internet. Day after day, year after year (soon to be decade after decade) of being wrong. Its like the movie groundhogs day up in here! But I will keep coming back for a laugh…so funny to see these guys get all jazzed up and cocky over nothing and then fall back to earth over and over
June 20th, 2010 at 8:00 pm
@vreaa
http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/96514714.html
as much as I wish it was all speculation buyers, "To this point, no purchase offers containing subjects have been accepted. That means people are paying in cash." I think this means the people buying are just that stupidly rich, I can assume majority would be asian. Lets be honest only asians would pay that much for richmond. If they were non-asians and wanted "luxury" waterfront condos, they could have just bought in oly village.
June 20th, 2010 at 7:59 pm
Oh bears…
Once again you jinxed yourselves and every other individual hoping to buy a place because of your premature celebration…
You cheered on 15, 16, 17, 18k inventory parties and professed the end had started..
Many of you "went on record" as stating that the collapse started in April…
Now we see increasingly strong sale/list ratios despite the increase in mortgage rates and the new April 19th rental income rules…
You cling to May stats of 5% price declines for Vancouver SFHs, but ignore the increases in attached and condos…
On bears, you have been wrong for so long that it has become boring listening to your constant
Face it, Vancouver is different – who cares if its rich asians, drug trade money, retires, leveraged gen y' ers….
There is some validity in all of these "explanations"
Such a sad existence checking the daily stats because even IF there was some correction (and this is not any indication I believe it is coming) it will take many many years to unravel…
An 8 year bull market will take more than a year to decline…
So you will still be here in many many years professing the end is near…
June 20th, 2010 at 7:52 pm
W@acefupn</a
150 of a proposed 2600. Good luck with that Richmond.
June 20th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
The final nail in the coffin as the greatest fools get in before the tide turns. Just when you think you've seen a moron along comes another one. Richman will be the next frontier. The new Asian riviera.
June 20th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
The final nail in the coffin as the greatest fools get in before the tide turns. Just when you think you’ve seen a moron along comes another one. Richman will be the next frontier. The new Asian riviera.
June 20th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
That Richmond project selling out amazes me, even in this giant bubble, as the prices they were asking seemed like Downtown Vancouver pricing.
June 20th, 2010 at 7:25 pm
@Vanrod: re River Green: "The biggest purchase was by a family who bought four suites valued at $5 million."
—–
One each, and one for the dog.
Good to know that the market isn't driven by rank speculation, and that buyers have become sensible again.
June 20th, 2010 at 7:14 pm
@Vanrod:
Our wealthy Chinese buyers will piss Vancouver bear off once more time and again and again.Their ain't no resistance to turn the tide of Van RE well and solidly supported by trillion and trillion Chinese money.