Friday Free-for-all!

It’s time for our traditional end of the week Friday free-for-all post where we round up the weeks news and have our open topic economic discussion for the weekend. Here are a few stories I’ve noticed lately:

-Businessweek: Vancouvers Bubble Trouble
-11 Olympic Village buyers want out
-Reading the mortgage fine print
-Royal and TD trim some rates
-Big bank growth offsets office vacancies
-Economist muses on comparisons to 1930s
-g20 leaders face worries about rising deficits

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

242 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”

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    The key item that the Businessweek article misses is the absolute importance of CMHC to the market. The Canadian market is one built on CMHC and nothing else. Without understanding that, it is difficult to understand this bubble and the general price trend in the Canadian market.

    Government intervention in markets that can operate efficiently without their assistance always distorts incentives and screws over one person or another. In this case the intervention created a mass of paper wealth for one generation and committed another to near-permanent indebted servitude.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    2

    Talk about not seeing the elephant in the living room:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10409354.stm

    "The Canadian character is relatively fiscally conservative. Canadians themselves are relatively prudent, I think, in terms of how much they are prepared to borrow and the risks they are prepared to take."

    Certainly, fewer risks are allowed in the housing market.

    Canadian home values have held fairly steady according to Pierre de Varennes, a real estate broker in Ottawa, with 350 employees.

    He says stricter standards for homebuyers meant no housing boom and bust in Canada:

    "In Canada, you cannot over-mortgage your property. In fact if you are financing more than 75% of the value, you have to get insurance. Not for you but for the bank"

    Hear that folks? No overvalued or overmortgaged properties in Canada because the mortgages are insured!

    Gack.

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    " "I'd say over half our high-end listings go to China buyers," says Connell. "Yesterday we did an open house for a $3.5 million home, and six groups came through. They were all Chinese."

    Broker Andrew Hasman sees 70 to 80 percent of his high-end listings go to mainland Chinese. He oversaw an open house recently for a $1.8 million home. Of 100 visitors, 91 were from China. "

    I wonder what impact the recent Australian restrictions on foreign buying will have on the Vancouver market. Interesting too that you have to read an American magazine to get an idea of the extent of foreign purchases here.

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    And just for fun. Searched 'New Price' on Craigslist and one screen was filled with just two days of listings, June 23 and 24.

    Scrolled back to May and one screen covered all listings from May 11 to 30.

    It's a bubble in New Prices!

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    5

    @chip:

    Really objective sources there. They would say that, wouldn't they?

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    Anonymous Says:
    6

    @chip: Relatively few buyers are truly "foreign." Besides there are more than enough properties for sale for everyone!

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    registereduser Says:
    7

    If you believe the "wealthy mainland Chinese buyers" meme now being advanced by realtors, I have a bridge to sell you.

    While there are a handful of mainland Chinese buyers of Vancouver real estate (if we are talking about the wealthy ones, they buy mainly in the Arbutus, Quilchena, South Granville and Shaughnessy neighbourhoods) they are vastly outnumbered by locals who have lost all sense of what the rest of the world pays for real estate and who take for granted, whether they realize it or not, that "real estate can only go up".

    It is not wealthy mainland Chinese who have been engaging in bidding wars to pay $1m for bungalows or rotting "character homes" on 33' lots in working class neighbourhoods on the implicit assumption that they will be worth $1.1m next year.

    I think the "mainland Chinese" nonsense we are suddenly hearing every time a realtor is interviewed is a last-ditch attempt to juice this doomed market one last time, and a despicable attempt to capitalize on xenophobia. If there was any chance that people would believe it, they'd advise that Martians are buying too.

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    Leading Story?!? Says:
    8

    I'm surprised this blog hasn't been on fire with this news I woke up to this morning on CBC Radio!

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2

    Hearing Rennie stutter on about "waterfront living" & "Sub-Zero fridges" as well as the quiver in his voice when he said he's "not worried about re-selling the units" …

    Coup de grâce, anyone?!?

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    900kCrackHouse Says:
    9

    @registereduser: Only a handfull of mainland Chinese buyers you say? I personally know a Chinese family that owns a 1.5 million dollar house in Fraser heights – only the Grandma and 18 year old daughter lives there. Another family that purchased a 1.5 million dollar house in Burnaby. Guess who lives there? Their 18 year old son. Friend just built two 1.2 million dollar houses and sold both of them in Steveston area – guess who bought them? Mainland chinese buyers. Obviously this is just anecdotal evidence, but I really believe anyone who thinks that mainland chinese buyers are not driving up prices in many parts of the lower mainland are on deceiving themselves.

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    Leading Story?!? Says:
    10

    My bad … didn't review yesterday's blog

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    Rennie Madoff Says:
    11

    Be tolerant … or (default &) move to suburbia!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    davers Says:
    12

    @900kCrackHouse: Each and every buyer drive up the market. That buyer was willing to pay more than anyone else who was interested in the place (most of the time).

    Sure mainland Chinese buyers drive up the market. The question is by how much?

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    13

    @900kCrackHouse:

    Prices are determined by the marginal buyer. That means that if prices were actually being set by Mainland Chinese (or whatever exotic buyers you choose), nobody else would be buying.

    I will also note that if Mainland Chinese were capable of setting prices by themselves, the RE industry would not have to bother marketing to anyone else. What do you think they are paying Bob Rennie for?

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    @900kCrackHouse:

    I too think the presence of Chinese, though overrated, is substantial enough. The proof is in the pudding (prices) obviously. It's made a home in every local buyer's head.

    But that in itself guarantees the bubble. Chinese are not savvy investors, they are just like the Japanese in the 1980s. People think they're better because their growth rate is apparently higher, but most analysts believe those numbers are exaggerated by the government, and they don't nearly have the economic savvy that the Japanese did back then. They were heads and shoulders ahead of the rest of the world in technology.

    Vancouver RE will turn on its own anyways (it's doing that now), but the popping of the Chinese bubble will crush property values here.

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    Happy Renting Says:
    15

    @chip, you don't have "to read an American magazine to get an idea of the extent of foreign purchases here." Just look up the stats that Landcor provides.

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    Eponymous Says:
    16

    @Happy Renting: What is landcor? The article said that stats on foreign buyers are hard to find, I thought no one had them?

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    The BusinessWeek article is good, but it's remarkable that fundamentals such as price/income of 10; price/monthly_rent of >300 (or 400 or 500), are not mentioned. That would have given non-Vancouverite readers immediate perspective that they don't get from the article as it stands.

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    "We have buyers going, 'Wow, I love the hardwood floors and the view and the Sub-Zero [fridge],'" said Rennie.

    lol, for fuck sakes I HATE salesmen.

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    anonymous456 Says:
    19

    @Nero:

    Good point about the Japanese. I still remember when the Japanese-craze hit Canada. I believe there was even a push for "Japanese-immersion" elementary schools (it might have even happened) because according to the media, the Japanese economy was so strong that "one day everyone will have to speak Japanese!" Sound familiar? Is it different this time? I know I'm sure tired of hearing of Chinese dominating the market (and how do the realtors know they're straight from China anyway, I know lots of Asian couples who have been in the country for a decade or more and they're using as much credit to buy houses as non-Asians). It gets tiring, really really tiring.

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    @vreaa: LOL the irony that Business Week can't apply basic business concepts is somewhat ironic if it weren't so predictable.

    They did shout out VCI though, so they can't be all bad :)

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    Ironic irony. Next time bear proof read. Rent is due next week so understandable.

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    Tony Danza Says:
    22

    @chip: I still don't understand why a Chinese gazillionaire is going to use Gwai Lo Hasman as their agent. Maybe he's representing the seller but why would the gazillionaires agent fill Hasman in on the personal details of the buyer?

    Anyone?

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    Recently Bearish Says:
    23

    Out of curiousity,why are the numbers at http://www.yattermatters.com for yesterday's sales so different (89) than those posted by paul b? Do they look at a different overall area? Or is one of them wrong?

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    Tony Danza Says:
    24

    @Tony Danza: Oh right because Gwai Lo Hasman is a d!ck sucking liar.

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    crashcow Says:
    25

    We have talked here about how our housing boom has lead to misplaced values…here's an anecdote from China:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/0

    "I would rather cry in a BMW than smile on the back of my boyfriend's bicycle."

    Wow.

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    DaMann Says:
    26

    These realestate idiots are doing no one a service with their latest bullshit about the Chinese. It's starting some dangerous hatred against the Chinese for "driving locals out of their own city" They are creating a tension out there. The Chinese don't come in and say "hey I like that house for 1 million, I'm going to buy it for 1.2 million because I'm rich." They are buying the house at market value nothing more. It's the masses of idiots with free credit in their hand driving up prices. Poor Chinese are going to be well hated if this misinformation keeps up.

    Also love the annecdotes " I know some Chinese that bought XYZ" Really? I have a friend of mine that bought a house in Burnaby hights and a house in Whistler, thing is he is a joe blow average white guy. The reality? They are just a bunch of buyers.

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    DaMann Says:
    27

    @Recently Bearish:

    Recently Bearish

    I have noticed this before. I THINK that Paulb keeps collecting them as they come in, Yatter has a cut off point and uploads the data at that time. He may not keep checking as the new ones filter in as Paulb does. I think that's it anyways.

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    The chinese may looks like they can spend like there's no tomorrow. However it doesn't mean that they will be buying into a falling market and the RE hype starts to cool off. After all Vancouver isn't the only RE market in the world, and RE isn't the only investment where they can put their money.

    Will see where they will go when they see the drop starts to gather momentum.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    29

    Look bear, need to understand China advantage. First, they don't have to waste time watch FIFA hifi, team is not in. Also save money on car flag. Extra time spent at RiverGreen construction site imagining utopia and snapping up W.Side bargain homes. Do not want to be lonely man in leaky condo crying on bicycle. Johnny from England and Eduardo from Portugal cannot compete with this advantage, they have to stay stuck to TV. But at least they are relax watching hifi and sipping Cranteeny. Some things are priceless.

    Alos, please don't forget rent is due next week. Holiday on Thursday, Rennie Day, so I need cheque by Wednesday. Thank you.

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    Fun times! Says:
    30

    This is really starting to get fun! The mountains of undeniable data that shows we are in a bubble is flooding in. Even the Condo King himself is afraid!

    I am going to go out and offer a Realturd a chance to wash my car for extra money. I will then offer $589K with 67 subjects and a 5 month closing on a place listed at $1 million. Wish me luck!

    It will be a long hot summer followed by a very cold winter for Vancouver Real Estate!

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    @anonymous456:

    You know what else is the other elephant in the room as far as China is concerned? Demographics.

    China has had that one-child policy for so long that they're getting old just like the Japanese.

    And one of the local factors for the Chinese that is fueling the bubble is that with that one-child policy, there are more men than women. How does that affect RE values? Men who one RE are considered far more suitable mates then their poor renting peers. This is helping the rush.

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    kabloona Says:
    32

    CBC interview with the Lawyer trying to void the pre-sales contracts with OV Condos…..in case anybody hasn't heard it.

    http://www.cbc.ca/video/news/audioplayer.html?cli

    Basically he admits his clients want out because their bet on ever-increasing Vancouver real-estate prices didn't pan out.

    ;-)

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    Best place on meth Says:
    33

    @crashcow:

    Ah, the women of China have learned Western ways well.

    That's an unfortunate side effect of China's one child policy, a shortage of women. There are now 20 million more men than women and the poorest ones have little hope of finding a wife.

    Sounds like the big city girls know they have these guys by the nuts too, they're getting awfully demanding and brazen.

    If I were a Chinese guy with money I would stay away from these horrible women and go find a nice girl from the countryside.

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    coastal Says:
    34

    Bang on for those who see through this "Chinese buying tsnuamai" BS. Last gasp excuse by the RE ho's. If these are mainland buyers then they most likely have come into big money for the first time in their lives and haven't experienced a massive decline in any investment.

    This is so similar to the majority of the recent generation of buyers the past 10 years. They have no idea what it's like to see 50% of their worth erode away in Chinese water torture fashion. This will not be a happy ending.

    The Chinese are known gamblers on a big scale and not all are savvy businessmen familiar with the western world.

    "Real estate is like a sport here," says Tracie McTavish, president of Rennie Marketing Systems, which is overseeing the sale of Millenium Water."

    I'd say there's been some real sheep hunting going on, that's the only sport happening here. What a ridiculous statement.

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    Bubble Lad Says:
    35

    I'm sorry, but the Olympic Village buyers are imbeciles. How can the builder be in breach of contract, when every condo contract basically says the same thing:

    "We, the builder get to change whatever we want about the building, whenever we feel like it, according the definitions that the buyer agreed to let us define at a later date, and in return, the buyer gets to lie on their stomach and bite the pillow."

    I mean, COME ON!!! It's the builder's fault you just decided to wing it without reading the contract?

    Sorry, all sales are final. You put your money on "red" and the wheel came up "black" – better luck next time.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    36

    Uh oh bear, Vancouver is #1 destination for everyone. Look, first Chinese, now G20 leaders will come to snap up OV bargains (they don't need washer/dryer since everything dryclean), PaulB came back, even Scullboy coming back. He knows VanRE is worth more than $2.99 lobster. You can not fight it bear. Keep saying Vancouver is trash, nobody believe you. With direct flight from everywhere, whole world can be here in 24 hours. This world is globe bears, money and people flow everywhere. Rest of world is in toilet, everybody like Flaherty serious face, reminds them of Grandpa. Canada is beacon. Laurier was wrong, 21st century is Canada century, not 20th. Don't be left behind bears, or you will have to move to Windsor.

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    coastal Says:
    37

    I remember the big Japan fear too. They were on the verge of owning every bank in the USA and they were going to take over the western world. All our kids would be taking Japanese as a second language and Toyota and Datsuns would be our only mode of transportation. It was just another ridiculous fear mania with a very brutal ending like this one is/will be.

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    Bubble Lad Says:
    38

    'Wow, I love the hardwood floors and the view and the Sub-Zero [fridge],'"

    Is there a string in Rennie's back you pull when you want to hear these comments? ROTFL!

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    Best place on meth Says:
    39

    @coastal:

    Look, even the RE pimps who are pushing the Chinese buyer story have all said the same thing:

    They are going for the high end properties over $2 million.

    Ok, so how does that affect average homes since there has always been foreign demand for the high end product? Who's to say these buyers aren't just taking properties off the hands of other foreigners with little or no net effect?

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    davers Says:
    40

    @Nero: So what are you saying? Because there's a 1 child policy in China rich people are moving here to have more kids? This has been covered, if you pay the government money, you can have more kids.

    If you are saying this affects the local market in China you might have a point, but are you refering to Vancouver RE?

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    Not much of a name.. Says:
    41

    @Best place on meth: "Ok, so how does that affect average homes since there has always been foreign demand for the high end product? Who’s to say these buyers aren’t just taking properties off the hands of other foreigners with little or no net effect?"

    – That may explain why the Landcor stats continually show a small percentage of foreign owned Vancouver properties. They just keep selling amongst themselves.

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    Starving Artist Says:
    42

    I'm sure there has always been a similar level of high-end market churn with only the origin country mix changing over the decades. It's just that now the tide is going out and the low- and mid-level buyers are sitting on their hands, it's the only area of activity so appears to be "hot".

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    Best place on meth Says:
    43

    West side median price down 3% this month according to Larry.

    MOI at about 10.

    http://www.yattermatters.com/neighborhood-numbers

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    Tony Danza Says:
    44

    @Best place on meth: West Side real estate soon to become as popular as a redheaded stepchild.

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    superduperbulltime Says:
    45

    Bear now that government promise doctor for everyone Vancouver real estate market going to take off. Every 24 year old male nurse will move into downtown condo. Top off with Grey Cup 2011 just like Olympic explosion of price. Now is time to get in before wave of 24 year old male nurse and fat overweight cfl fan from saskatoon swarm to town.

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    realpaul Says:
    46

    Flaherty wants to eliminate deficit by 2013, in the middle of a recession. What does that mean to Canadians? Much higher taxed of course, where will the revenue come from otherwise? Business profits are tanking. The only one hiring is the government. The churn of jobs is a smoke screen of projections. Get ready Canada, the Cons are going to come after you like the Martin Liberals did in the 80's and 90's. New taxes will kill the CDN middle class. Debt prison here we come.

    BTW ….PC Douchebags and asst retards…of course theres a problem with foriegn nationals buying housing stock in Vanshithole…are you all just stupid? How does extending the problem by exacerbating it with untaxed foriegn money do anything good for Canadians?

    http://www.financialpost.com/news/Canada+urges+na

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    kansai_92 Says:
    47

    RE: Millennium Water

    No fcking way that these hosers are getting out of their contracts.

    Desperate attempt at trying to weasel out of a gamble that didn't pay out by looking for a legal loophole.

    What a bunch of cry babies.

    11 contracts being disputed out of 264.

    I'll be a few more join the lawsuit.

    So you have 4.1% of buyers wanting out.

    That speaks volumes about the development and RE market in general.

    On top of that, you have agents whispering to buyers "psst, if you don't like this place, I'll take you down the street where prices are $100K cheaper".

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    kansai_92 Says:
    48

    I wonder what goes through the Chinese buyer's mind when, envitably, the yuan begins to appreciates against every other currency in the world (including ours).

    Yet they are holding onto a piece of overpriced Vancouver real estate denominated in CAD$.

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    Depressed Says:
    49

    "We have buyers going, 'Wow, I love the hardwood floors and the view and the Sub-Zero [fridge],'" said Rennie.

    Well, if some of you guys had truble understanding the notion of infinity in math class, there you have it, think of human stupidity, you might finally get it.

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    Bubble Lad Says:
    50

    The whole "rich asian" myth is as fascinating for its complete lack of credibility as it is for its thinly veiled racism.

    I think people are interpreting China's economic clout as a nation (as evidenced by their ownership as a nation of a trillion in US debt) as economic clout of individual Chinese citizens.

    My impression is that the trillions of dollars is composed of tiny individual savings in China – working people who save every penny to put aside a few hundred or a thousand dollars. When they bank this money, China invests it EN MASSE in US bonds.

    But this doesn't translate into individual Chinese citizens worth billions of dollars! The vast majority of them are still desperately poor by North American standards, and the ones who ARE worth millions didn't make them by being so financially inept as to just blow it all on worthless real estate half way around the world.

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    vote me down Says:
    51

    Chinese man having shortage of girls ?

    Well fat chance, white woman seldom prefer asian because they have a small dick and dont know how to treat them with respect.

    I have a solution for the single chinese man, if you stay long enough alone in your Vancouver multimillion condos, you might realise that fucking eachother would be better than overbiding for a chinese woman. Spread the word to mainland china!

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    kansai_92 Says:
    52

    Wow, I just listened to the entire CBC audio clip.

    It's even more ridiculous than I first imagined.

    I can't believe the lawyer actually believes he has a case.

    You simply cannot overturn these contracts because it would

    set a precedence. Every developer would then become liable

    for units that have not appreciated according to the expectactions of the flipper buyer.

    You cannot have a society where you're allowed to gamble and if your gamble doesn't pay off, you're off the hook.

    Or can you?

    BUYER BEWARE!

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    Bubble Lad Says:
    53

    @kansai_92:

    If you're a bank, you can!

    Capitalism for the poor,

    Socialism for the rich.

    that's the new economy.

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    He didn't say they wanted out of the contract because the units hadn't appreciated, he said that if the units had appreciated they wouldn't be trying to get out. There is a difference. It might have been an ill advised statement but all he is saying is that if the units were worth more the people would just sell, pretty obvious. I'm not saying they actually have a case (no way for us to know one way or the other) but it's not as bad as some of you are making it out to be.

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    Remember this house? V830550

    The couple and realtor Lorne Goldman were quoted in the paper and there was quite a bit of discussion here about the pricing of this Riley Park property. If I recall correctly it was originally listed at $899K, so a nice 7% haircut and still on the market.

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    patient renter Says:
    56

    Perception is reality. The more stories such as the 11 OV buyers wanting out hitting the front page, the quicker things will happen.

    The real estate machine is very powerful and they will do everything they can to keep people thinking that vancouver real estate is a good investment. It will take some time for this perception to change. Slowly it will be beaten down by these kinds of stories. But look at how much the perception has changed in the last 2 months.

    Gone from bidding wars to buyers market.

    I can't wait for 6 months to see where we are at.

    I'm banking on 30% crash across the board. To me then the prices will make sense in the vancouver that exists today.

    Sold my condo last year, so I'm banking my savings on this gut feeling that prices will drop significantly. Having this site makes it easier. At least I know there are others that see the same thing I do.

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    SuperSmartBull Says:
    57

    Look bear, this OV dispute only simple case of mis-understanding. Buyer thought 'Sub zero' meant freezer, but actually is clever name for fridge. Rennie is jogging over as we speak and will clear everything up. On the way expect him to sell 4 more units to male nurses.

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    Junius Says:
    58

    patient realtor,

    You are dead on. These things take time. It will be months before the public sentiment fully shifts.

    I agree with you that things will have changed by the fall. I keep calling this the "long, dry" summer as buyers dry up and position the market for a crash.

    The Re industry will keep announcing "we are at bottom". We will have more false bottoms than a Hollywood plastic surgeons rolodex before we finally reach it….sometime 3 – 5 years from now.

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    davers Says:
    59

    @vibe:

    @patriotz:

    It seems to make sense to me.

    Lets say I buy a car and I say I want it in red. Now this is a special limited edition car to it wont be ready for a year. When I get it, it is blue. If this car is in high demand then I could sell this blue car for more than I paid for it. If this is the case then I wouldnt bother compaining because I got free money for doing nothing. If I cant get what I paid for it re-selling it, then I might make a stink and try to get out of buying it.

    Regardless of if my intention was to actually keep the car or not, if it isnt what I ordered and its now worth less than I paid, I wouldnt be too happy.

    That being said, there is no way these guys are getting out of it. These contracts are worded so that as long as you get a condo that even slightly resembles what the drawings looked like, you gotta pay. They can put a giant billboard 20 feet from your balcony and there isnt a damn thing you can do about it.

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    anonymous456 Says:
    60

    @Bubble Lad:

    Well said. I think the media needs a reality check. I can't believe they can get away with such generalizations "rich Chinese buying all the real estate in Vancouver" It's ridiculous and just plain wrong.

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    @Patriotz

    Yes but you're missing a condition. Depreciation is a logically necessary but not a sufficient condition for buyers to sue. You also need a breach of contract on the part of the developer. So A does not imply B.

    All the lawyer said was that the buyers would likely have ignored the alleged breach of contract had the units appreciated in value in the mean time. He never said that depreciation was a sufficient reason to get out of the deal. People seem to be making a lot of assumptions about the validity of the case that may or may not prove to be correct.

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    White Payer Says:
    62

    @raggedyrenter:

    In other news, I just got a notice from Revenue Canada this week to show them proof that I REALLY purchased twelve monthly bus passes last year, or else!!!

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    Recently Bearish Says:
    63

    Apparently, the lawyer representing the condo purchasers has given a presentation about the many possible ways that a pre-sale contract might be found to be unenforceable under the Real Estate Development Marketing Act.

    His firm has posted slides from his presentation at:

    http://www.harpergrey.com/assets/attachments/106….

    From the CBC interview, it seemed like his clients may be claiming that many of the circumstances described in the slides exist in their case.

    I doubt that depreciation in value is claimed to be a breach of contract, but the lawyer may be hinting in his slides that a broadly-worded "force majeur" or "act of god" clause in the contract could permit a party to walk away if there was a serious market crash beyond the parties' control. Sounds a little soft to me.

    If you really wanted to read the specific claims made by the purchasers,you could search the Supreme Court Civil Registry and should be able to read the Writ of Summons and Statement of Claim filed in Court (electronically):

    https://eservice.ag.gov.bc.ca/cso/index.do

    Unless you read the pleadings, I agree with the other posters here that there is no way to know what the purchasers are actually claiming in this case.

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    64

    @kansai_92:

    You cannot have a society where you’re allowed to gamble and if your gamble doesn’t pay off, you’re off the hook.

    Or can you?

    I imagine that a Wall Street banker would answer "yes, you can! And how!". If you have enough economic/political power, you can always coerce someone else to make you whole when your bets come up losers.

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    Anonymous Says:
    65

    @chip: "Broker Andrew Hasman sees 70 to 80 percent of his high-end listings go to mainland Chinese. He oversaw an open house recently for a $1.8 million home. Of 100 visitors, 91 were from China.”

    Really! Out of the 91 home gawkers, the number of home buyers is only a tiny fraction. It is not a secret that newly landed PRs love to see the decor and lifestyle of the well-established locals. Their rounds of 'Open House' is equivalent to "window shopping".

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    Anonymous Says:
    66

    @900kCrackHouse: "but I really believe anyone who thinks that mainland chinese buyers are not driving up prices in many parts of the lower mainland are on deceiving themselves."

    Agreed. But not up to the ratio of 91 out of 100.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Steevee Says:
    67

    In that OV article they cite Rennie as saying they have sold 36 of the remaining 473 condos since they started in May. Isn't that around the same number they claim to have sold on that opening weekend? Wow, sales are on fire since then! People will have to wear fire-resistant clothing in False Creek soon!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    SuperSmartBull Says:
    68

    I don't know why bears are so afraid to snatch up one of many great deals in OV or DT condos. Maybe it is too much paperwork to sign, reduces time for bong hits and posting on RE blog? Don't worry, if wrist is injure from signing then many male nurses nearby to administer quick 1st aid.

    Are bears just afraid of commitment? Maybe that's why many are single too. Just go away and cry on your bicycle and then start to think like Tom Vu and stop being loser.

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    Anonymous Says:
    69

    @kansai_92: "I wonder what goes through the Chinese buyer’s mind when, envitably, the yuan begins to appreciates against every other currency in the world (including ours).

    Yet they are holding onto a piece of overpriced Vancouver real estate denominated in CAD$."

    BOO-hoohoohoo

    3000 Chinese crooks hiding in Canada are howling in fear.

    Mr Harper and Mr Hu Jintao signed an MU that includes an item on an agreement on the sharing of the proceeds of crime.
    http://www.mingpaovan.com/htm/news/20100625/vab7….

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    Devore Says:
    70

    @crashcow: What do you expect when millions of Chinese men have mathematically no hope of ever finding a wife? It's a buyer's market, baby!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    71

    @vibe:

    Depreciation is a logically necessary but not a sufficient condition for buyers to sue. You also need a breach of contract on the part of the developer.

    The breach of contract is just an allegation. It's the purpose of the trial to determine if there was one.

    The depreciation is a fact. That's why they're alleging the breach of contract.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Devore:

    Scullboy to make a move from Halifax to China?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    73

    @Devore:

    Don't you know that they import brides from North Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Kirzhistan and Central East Europe.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    longtime Says:
    74

    All these anecdotes about Mainland Chinese buyers showing up at open houses makes me wonder…. back in the early 90s when I was but a young lad, my father went to an open house of a time-share in Whistler. He only went because he responded to an offer of a mini-TV in exchange for viewing the place. I remember him saying the sales guy was really tough going afterwards.

    It makes me wonder whether real estate agents in Vancouver are offering/paying for trips to Vancouver for potential "suckers" in China and showing them around. On a $5 million place maybe that would pay off…

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    Anonymous Says:
    75

    @longtime:

    That's what the media say – they are coming to Vancouver and Toronto this August.
    http://news.sh.soufun.com/2010-04-19/3256745.htm

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    This thread is useless without numbers!

    PAULB?!?!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    In that article, 4 reasons are given why Canada is chosen as an investment destination.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    paulb. Says:
    78

    New Listings 161

    Price Changes 132

    Sold Listings 85

    Hmmm have sales finally began to fall off?

    For the week:

    New Listings 1106

    Price Changes 831

    Sold Listings 544

    Tack on another 10 sales and 20 listings and we have a 49% s/l ratio for the week with an average of 111 daily sales. IF this sales pace continues or worsens, at an inventory of 19k that's 8+ MOI. Getting up there.

    Inventory is not moving 18,883

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    79

    @Anonymous:

    That's correct. They also employ gangs to kidnap them from poor parts of China. No kidding.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Stochastic PDE Says:
    80

    @longtime: Very good thinking. On the other hand, just check the number of sales north of $2 million.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Stochastic PDE Says:
    81

    What happens if the yuan rises versus the CDN? That gives Chinese purchasers even larger purchasing power. Hmmm… what got us into this mess is of course.. us.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Stochastic PDE Says:
    82

    @Stochastic PDE: Or of course you could choose to believe that the Chinese buyers have no impact on the buyer of the average home.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Superfly Says:
    83

    @Paulb,

    The sales numbers are pitiful, almost 200 less than the last 2 weeks. Where is the "beat the HST" rush.

    The tide is turning and there is nothing that Dave or Superbull or even KING CANUTE can do about it!

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    Anonymous Says:
    84

    @patriotz:

    A country of 2 systems: Capitalism and Communism
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iX1_D3cbCJU

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    I could only find one Olympic condo listed

    MLS® V838257

    578k for 708sqft

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Newcomer Says:
    86

    @Leading Story?!?:

    ""We have buyers going, 'Wow, I love the hardwood floors and the view and the Sub-Zero [fridge],'" said Rennie.'

    Yeah, I would buy a condo based on the fridge.

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    Boombust Says:
    87

    I see that Global TV at 5 is running that same CBC story about the OV buyers trying to back out.

    Good news travels fast.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Bubble Lad:

    "The whole “rich asian” myth is as fascinating for its complete lack of credibility as it is for its thinly veiled racism."

    This is a mindset that seems typically unique to Canadians. Any issue that involves a people of a different race just must be tainted by racism.

    But for some reason, here in Singapore where 80% of the population is ethnic Chinese, one of the most contentious issues is the influx of mainland Chinese and their impact on house prices and jobs.

    You see, in the modern world, capital flows rather freely and that movement of money can impact asset prices. Further — shudder the thought — sometimes that capital can originate from people who don't look like you.

    And as for all of those impoverished Chinese that you sneer at, there also happens to be a few rich ones as well. How many? Over 800,000 mainland Chinese now have a net worth of over USD$1.5 million and China's millionaire club is the fastest-growing in the world.

    What's their impact on Vancouver RE? Who the f**k knows. But it's probably worth citing a BusinessWeek story if they have a tidbit or two, even if it means the Thought Police might come knocking.

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    @chip:

    The problem is we have had rich people come here from all over. Ontario, US, Germany etc for many years. But they look like the locals- so no-one complains (at least the post-first nation locals)

    Now that they come from China, it's a big deal.

    Just a comment.

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    Anonymous Says:
    90

    @frank: "Now that they come from China, it’s a big deal."

    Who blares out the big news???

    Spokesperson of CHMC, Real Estate Industry

    Bob Rennie, Andrew Hassman, ….. .

    Why didn't the 'Thought Police' knock on their doors?

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    Anonymous Says:
    91

    @chip: "But for some reason, here in Singapore where 80% of the population is ethnic Chinese, one of the most contentious issues is the influx of mainland Chinese and their impact on house prices and jobs."

    It makes one wonder why they need to kidnap girls in rural areas
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GmhvEDqTVs

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    Vanrod Says:
    92

    Great piece from CNN on Vancouver post-olymipcs:
    http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2010/06/24/n_vanc

    I love this city! Happy friday guys.

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    Vulture Fun Says:
    93

    It's happening, people. Of the twelve recent listings I've been following, five have recently had price reductions:

    812 Alderside Road, Port Moody

    May 9, 2010 – $1,899,900

    June 25 – $1,750,000

    1042 Palermo Street, Coquitlam

    April 27, 2010 – $549,000

    May 9 – $539,000

    June 25 – $519,900

    604 Harrison Av., Coquitlam

    May 16, 2010 – $669,000

    May 31 – $649,000

    June 25 – $628,800

    657 Fairview St., Coquitlam

    May, 2010 – $699,900

    May – $678,000

    May 31 – $657,000

    June 24 – $649,900

    3016 Plateau Bv., Coquitlam

    July 26, 2008 – $1,580,000

    August 1, 2008 – $1,388,000

    Nov 13, 2009 – $2,860,000 (after reno)

    April 11, 2010 – $2,688,000

    June 25, 2010 – $2,683,000

    I love the last one. I'm sure that $5,000 off is going to do it. Delusion is strong in this one.

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    paulb. Says:
    94

    New Listings 198

    Price Changes 144

    Sold Listings 95

    18,906

    :)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @paulb.: C'mon Vancouver. 94 more listings and we can have a 19K-spectacular party for Canada Day!!!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Prca Visitor Says:
    96

    @Vanrod:

    LOL! I guess even you don't believe in that local-propaganda garbage.

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    Absinthe Says:
    97

    @chip: You say: over 800,000 Mainland Chinese have a net worth over 1.5 million USD. I don't know where you got those figures, but if they're correct, they're hugely illuminating and absolutely convince me that the "rich Asian" that keeps getting hauled out is mainly myth to keep local psychology up.

    Chinese RE is also known to be bubbly; bubbly housing inflates net worth. I know several Vancouver Boomers who are looking at net worth in that neighbourhood, with basic middle class jobs and not very plush RESPs, on the basis of their teardowns inflating in "value" by a million bucks during this bull market. Paper Millionaires: there's suddenly a lot of 'em.

    And because of that, a 1.5 million dollars isn't, really, anywhere in the ballpark of the net worth that our "rich Asian" investor must have to be buying without concern in a downturn.

    So, probably not what you intended, but I see that bit of information as bearish!

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    paulb. Says:
    98

    @VHB:

    That would be awesome! With sales crapping out I bet we make it.

    VHB has to do the first keg stand. :)

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    observervision Says:
    99

    Viaduct news. Shit for Vision Jeff ( pretty boy bitch greggy's husband) says that Vancouver can make money by tearing the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts down and selling the land to developers for more condo towers. He's going to reroute the traffic down Hastings and Broadway amd make more bikey lanes for him and the wifey Greggy. Bwahahahahahahahahahaha what an idiot. I thought most gay people were smarter than this.

    Butchy Jeffy must have come into his homosexuality while feeling the bicycle wedge up his ass fueling his sexual tension for boymeat. I have to think that the reason these two favor the tiny condo box design is that they want to get up each others bung hole and never have to worry about having children to house. Work Party Poppers and dancing eh greggy? Ever wonder why he's never been seen in public with a woman under eighty?

    This bicycle fetish is called 'fixation'. Did anyone notice the planters going in on the 'temporary lanes' down Dunsmuir?

    Wheres Jethro and Elly Mae when you need 'em?

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    If I was the defense lawyer I would look up the financial history of all the litigants – I’m quite sure there’s a history of flipping – and then look up how many of there prior pre purchases had similar differences (there is a correct term for this) from the contracted product. My guess is all of them did but the only difference was that those properties appreciated.
    Maybe they should rename it “Ebola Village”.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    101

    @vibe:

    He didn’t say they wanted out of the contract because the units hadn’t appreciated, he said that if the units had appreciated they wouldn’t be trying to get out

    (if A then B) == (if !B then !A)

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    jewel Says:
    102

    Hero cops strike 80year old bed ridden granny with tasaer weapon , again and again. What a bunch of losers. This after as another victim dies in Ontario from cop attack with taser.

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/60

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    PRICE REDUCTION Says:
    103

    I get a kick out of how innovative some realtors were when those price reductions were still in their infancy.

    I mean, could anybody to be dumb enough to think that "NEW PRICE" could actually mean an increase?

    When the inventory spike created more and more competition they became a bit more daring with atual "REDUCED" adds in the weekly real estate flyers.

    Of course now that sales are dwindling and potential buyers have caught on to the game we're starting to see "REDUCED" stickers on lawn signs (saw one that said "PRICE SLASHED" in the color of blood crossways on a sign). You'd think they would at least take the time to clean off the dust and spider webs while they were at it, and straighten out all of those that are leaning and flapping in the wind.

    Anyway, we're about to see what realtors will stoop to when they become really desperate and their listings are about to expire.

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    Junius Says:
    104

    The lawyer just needs an expert opinion from Bob Rennie to seal this case:

    “It is an implied term of any Vancouver Real Estate contract that the price will always go up……because it is different here.”

    Opppps. I guess he has a conflict on this one!

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    Best place on meth Says:
    105

    @Vulture Fun:

    Hey, not so fast! This one has one of those subzero fridges as well. They seem to be the main selling point these days amongst discerning buyers and this one should move quickly now that they've reduced the price by 1/10th of 1 percent.

    >>>3016 Plateau Bv., Coquitlam

    July 26, 2008 – $1,580,000

    August 1, 2008 – $1,388,000

    Nov 13, 2009 – $2,860,000 (after reno)

    April 11, 2010 – $2,688,000

    June 25, 2010 – $2,683,000

    I love the last one. I’m sure that $5,000 off is going to do it. Delusion is strong in this one.<<<

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    @Absinthe:

    I wasn't being bearish or bullish. Like I said, I have no idea of the impact. As for where their wealth is held, the World Health Report said last year that China had over 360,000 dollar millionaires, that is not including their property.

    I have also heard that mainland Chinese aren't allowed to take more than $50,000 out of the country in a year. If true, this raises the question where all this money in Vancouver RE is coming from. China is seething with corruption and many of these millionaires will be bureaucrats, businessmen with bureaucrats in their pockets or worse.

    Mainland China is very different from HK, Taiwan and Singapore. Money from the last three will be mostly the product of legitimate business activity because the legal and business structures are highly developed. I suspect much of the money from China is going to Vancouver less because Vancouver is such a swell place to live and more because there are no restrictions on foreign ownership and the Canadian authorities are next to useless in monitoring money flows.

    But, again, we'll never know because the RCMP's money laundering team is probably about as effective as its securities fraud squad (from story in 2008):

    "David Baines (Vancouver Sun) – Today I am providing a list of charges laid by the RCMP Integrated Market Enforcement Teams in Vancouver and Calgary since they were inaugurated in 2003 and 2004, respectively, as part of a national program to fight stock market fraud. It could be the shortest column I have ever written.

    HERE’S THE LIST:

    – Vancouver: Two people charged (one convicted, the other on the lam).

    – Calgary: No charges."

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    superboomtime Says:
    107

    Bear unlike dumpy rental most owner want nice appliance and hardwood floor. That what smart buyer look for is nice fridge and hardwood. Think male nurse 24 year old walk into OV condo and see crappy rental appliance and crappy rental carpet? No sale there bear if that happen. Leave marketing to genius rennie and keep sending cash to landlord. Just make sure not to spend the rent on bong hit again.

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    @crashcow: It looks like Chinese males haven’t read the “economics of gold digging”. I apologize for the long post but it’s just too funny. It’s a reply to a golddigger on craigslist.

    http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/09/the-economics-of-gold-digging/

    “I read your posting with great interest and have thought meaningfully about your dilemma. I offer the following analysis of your predicament. Firstly, I’m not wasting your time, I qualify as a guy who fits your bill; that is I make more than $500K per year. That said, here’s how I see it:

    Your offer, from the prospective of a guy like me, is plain and simple a crappy business deal. Here’s why. Cutting through all the B.S., what you suggest is a simple trade: you bring your looks to the party, and I bring my money. Fine, simple. But here’s the rub — your looks will fade and my money will likely continue into perpetuity … in fact, it is very likely that my income increases but it is an absolute certainty that you won’t be getting any more beautiful!

    So, in economic terms, you are a depreciating asset and I am an earning asset. Not only are you a depreciating asset, your depreciation accelerates! Let me explain: you’re 25 now and will likely stay pretty hot for the next 5 years, but less so each year. Then the fade begins in earnest. By 35, stick a fork in you!

    So in Wall Street terms, we would call you a trading position, not a buy and hold … hence the rub … marriage. It doesn’t make good business sense to “buy you” (which is what you’re asking) so I’d rather lease. In case you think I’m being cruel, I would say the following: if my money were to go away, so would you, so when your beauty fades I need an out. It’s as simple as that. So a deal that makes sense is dating, not marriage.

    Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So, I wonder why a girl as “articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful” as you has been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to believe, if you are as gorgeous as you say you are, that the $500K hasn’t found you, if not only for a tryout. By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money and then we wouldn’t need to have this difficult conversation.

    With all that said, I must say you’re going about it the right way. Classic “pump and dump.” I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of lease, let me know.”

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    Yalie Says:
    109

    That CBC interview made me want to hurl. It’s that kind of thing that gives lawyers a bad name.

    The lawyer actually said this:

    I think the reality is they’re worth a lot less, and that’s why the developer and the city is being so aggressive in trying to force all of these people to complete when they don’t want to be there

    Actually, the lower values are why the *buyers* are being so aggressive in trying to get out. The discrepancies are just convenient excuses, and they won’t hold up in court. If the buyers ordered fireplaces that don’t work, the developer simply has to fix them. Case closed. You can’t get out of the whole contract for something like that.

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    Paulb. Says:
    110

    @kansai_92: If there was In fact no disclosure statement provided that would be something. Could set a dangerous precedent. Dangerous for the city that is.

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    domus Says:
    111

    @paulb.: thanks Paulb! This is gong to make my weekend nicer!

    Inventory is picking up again, against all odds. We have take-off!

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    raggedyrenter Says:
    112

    Liar loans are a plague in China. Many people are taking a loan against their property at market (bubble) prices. Some even get higher loans (200% LTV) with a little kickback to bank officials.
    They have to secure these hot money somewhere so there are a lot of investment activity coming from China to Australia, US, Canada, even South East Asia. They don’t really care about ROI, as long as most are salvageable and out of the government reach.
    Hell they’re buying unused dilapidated STORAGE BUILDINGS in South East Asia. Once the shit hits the fan, they’re going to just declare bankruptcies and move to wherever they store their money.

    Sadly we have a reputation of being criminal friendly. We just never ever going to deport a criminal to their countries (China, Phillipines, etc). Welfare Checks?? awesome.
    If I’m a white collar criminal, and just fleeced my trigger-happy tyrant government for a few million, guess where I’m gonna run?

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    elvince Says:
    113

    I'm about to buy 91 Olympic condos (and husbah by tree) and list them just so we can have our 19k party.

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    superbusttime Says:
    114

    Bull fall for overprice airport fluff and catch falling knife at top of market. Fortune cookie say "stay liquid" but too late

    for you bull. Bull now you slave to bank. Suck it up bull.

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    @domus:

    Inventory will be lower this time next week. Trust me on this.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Vanrod: Boy, that CNN 'post-olympics' piece is lame: A restaurant owner says business was up during the games; The mayor says new investment is going 'gangbusters' (any actual evidence of that?). Even the pumpers are sounding unconvinced by their own schtick.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Dave: HAHA. Ya Dave, bc it's month end and listings expire. Let's make it more interesting. Care to bet whether inventory will be higher or lower one month from today?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    118

    @Dave:

    You're also privy to the secret of month end expiries?

    Damn it! I thought I was the only one here who knew that.

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    @GB:

    It will probably be lower in July/August and slightly up come September. We won't be touching record highs.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @davers: Let’s see what magic the lawyers can work. It sounds like the deficiencies are not enough to void these contracts; certainly there have been egregious deficiencies in other buildings — lower ceilings when vaulted ones were promised, 1 bedroom instead of 2, lack of parking spaces, etc. — but claiming the fireplace doesn’t work along with some other cosmetic issues, that can be cleaned up easily by a contractor, is not generally grounds for voiding a contract.

    These guys should have watched the CBC Marketplace special a few years ago where they exposed the presale racket and their unfavourable contracts for what they are. Lesson: don’t play a game you can’t win.

    My bet is they’re hoping for a quick settlement since the OV is still actively selling units. That they highlighted the quality issues speaks to their intent: give them their money back or they’ll scare away 6 times as many future buyers with future media blitzes. Bear markets are dirty sorted affairs, aren’t they!

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    Anonymous Says:
    121

    @Dave

    Can you pick a few stocks for me while you're at it?

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    Vanrod Says:
    122

    @vreaa: What's in it for CNN to do a pump piece? maybe its just what they discovered using their world class journalism (the most trusted name in news). Look around, its an exciting time to be in this city

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    crashcow Says:
    123

    I’m religiously visiting ECRI’s website each Friday for the latest WLI Growth Index value (annualized measure of future US economic growth rate). The index fell to -6.9%, the same value it was at in Dec 2007 when the last recession officially started. As David Rosenberg points out, whenever the index has hit -10%, the economy has gone into recession 100% of the time (42 years of data). We’re practically there.

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    124

    @Vanrod: i really hate journalists, especially the morons who work for the big conglomerates. With very few exceptions, they're mostly dumb careerists who wouldn't know how to get at the truth if it bit them on the nose.

    I'm not sure what the story was supposed to be here, but were I a journalist doing this story and Vancouver's mayor claimed that 60 million dollars in FDI (foreign direct investment) was completed since the end of the Olympic Games, I'd have asked "compared to what baseline?" In a In a normal year, how much FDI does Vancouver receive in the period between March and June?

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    Anonymous Says:
    125

    @Vanrod

    CNN…world class journalism…

    ….umm I don't think I'll say anything more…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Apologize in advance if this has already been posted…it must have been emailed to me 10x today…

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_2

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    @Vanrod: "Look around, its an exciting time to be in this city."

    Please elaborate.

    The city looks pretty much the same to me (not bad, by the way), what am I missing?

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    Devore Says:
    128

    @GB: "Apologize in advance if this has already been posted…it must have been emailed to me 10x today…

    http://www.businessweek.com/ma…..551500.htm&quo…

    It's only the first link in today's article ;)

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    omega Says:
    129

    I was chatting with a friend whose sister is looking for a condo in the Tinseltown area. Last weekend they thought they would pop into a few open houses. First she was struck by how many open houses signs there were in the area, but the thing that really caught her by surprise is when realtors (several in fact) came up to them ON THE STREET and asked "what are you looking for?". She said it felt like she was in a developing country.

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    Superfly Says:
    130

    What Dave won't mention is that MOI tends to trend up through the second half of the year and its already quite high. Prices correlate with MOI, not inventory alone. Just looking at inventory is foolish.

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    Anonymouse Says:
    131

    @Best place on meth:

    "Ah, the women of China have learned Western ways well"

    Oh…yah…right, those evil caucasian women invented gold-digging. Oh, and now they've corrupted these innocent asian women with their vile western thoughts, boo hoo. I bet those sweet Chinese ladies never thought of this concept before, no sirree!!

    End sarcasm.

    Give me a fucking break. I don't care if its pygmies in New Guimea or Inuits in Alaska, women of every race want financial security and will seek this out in men. Its been this way for every race, creed and culture on the planet since the dawn of time. In which case maybe you should blame African women for starting it all. Yeah, that bitch Lucy !

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    Superfly Says:
    132

    Or rather, price changes correlate with MOI (via Mohican's work).

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Chilled Says:
    133

    @vote me down:

    No wonder my Landlords Chinese wife is fucking me to death twice a week!!

    Like the old commercial says; "ancient chinese secret……"

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymouse Says:
    134

    @omega:

    "whose sister is looking for a condo in the Tinseltown"

    WTF. Tinseltown!! Why? Why? That's just crazy talk. Who would want to live in that area?

    As for the 800,000 mainland chinese with net worth of +$1.5 million, I'm not impressed by that stat. Vancouver has a population of 600,000 and if the average vancouver SFH is $1M, even if you exclude condo dwellers, that's at least 500,000 vancouverites alone with net worth in the $1m range. On paper.

    Having said that, while I don't believe the market is entirely driven by chinese buyers, they do have an impact on prices. This can not be denied. I don't buy the argument that since they are only looking at luxury homes that this has no impact on prices of lower priced homes. Of course it has an impact. If there are no buyers for a $2M home, then the price of that home declines and it has a resultant impact on the price of other homes. Alternatively, if there is no market for a $2M home, then $2M homes won't be built and thus that land would be used for lower value homes (on smaller lots even, so evenn more homes could be built) to meet the demand for that price of housing.

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    AgentWill has a good rant on OV presales. It's not just OV. Buyer beware.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymouse Says:
    136

    @Anonymouse: Oh I just realized that my 500,000 vancouverite millionaire argument is total bollocks. Just because the average price of a house in vancouver is $1M doesn't mean everyone has a $1M house. Durrr..

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    137

    @Anonymouse: so by your argument these rich Chinese buyers are creating scarcity by buying. Tell that to the 18900+ listings on the market!

    If these buyers are buying with cash it seems like a direct injection of money into the pockets of locals. If they choose to recycle this money into housing that can lead to some knock on sales at higher prices for a time but the game of pass the potato stops as soon as there are too few buyers. Think of it this way: where does Asian money end up at the end of the day? Follow the money trail and I conclude the cash injection will do little more than stave off a few bankruptcies. But doing so has close to zero impact on the local economy because in bk the losses show up on banks' balance sheets and they have little effect on the local BC economy. The Asian money injection will in much part flow to lenders but won't keep prices high. Follow the flow of money and ask where it must ultimately end up.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    138

    My god, so much talk about Chinese buyers.

    It's getting louder out there.

    I have to say, if there is a backlash against foreigners in this town the blame lies squarely with the likes of Dch. Bob Rennie and Dch. Cameron Muir for stoking the fire and propagating the myth.

    To me it's still a pile of bullshit but I'm not sure if these two douches realize that they're playing with fire.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    ulsterman Says:
    139

    @White Payer:

    Classic case of "the system" going after the easy targets. They should spend their time chasing corporate tax mischief or proceeds of crime. Then again, that requires balls, effort, and smarts, so they will probably keep chasing guys like YOU who may be scamming on bus passes…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    140

    It's time for about 85% of Vancouver real estate agents to fuck off and find other work. They are simply not doing their jobs.

    325K for this?

    http://www.mls.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId

    You worthless amateur, tell your client the insane market is over forever. Stop wasting everyone's time and get real.

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    Some video on OV:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbu7EmP9mhk

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    Greenhorn Says:
    142

    Here is some video on Olympic Village.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fbu7EmP9mhk

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    143

    To anyone who thinks that Asian money is driving prices in Vancouver.

    The market peaked in April 2008 and then started falling at about 2% per month. The biggest declines were in West Van and on the West Side. Was there some big financial crisis in China in April 2008? Did buying in Vancouver suddenly go out of style for rich Chinese?

    Then early in 2009 prices started rising again. Why? Was there some sudden economic recovery in China at that time?

    What economic parameter was different from April 2008 that would explain why prices would rise? Which buyers would be affected by it?

    Is it really that difficult? Use your heads.

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    Spot The Speculator #1

    Speculation Disguised As Normal Behaviour

    The major driving force behind our bubble has not been absence of land, nor wealthy foreigners, nor the effect of the Olympics, nor the beauty of our city. Those factors have been more important indirectly, as stories that have driven local speculators to buy RE with extra-cheap borrowed money, anticipating never-ending price gains. Speculation has been the major engine driving the market. We believe that almost all RE purchases in Vancouver over at least the last 5 years have had a speculative component. By that we mean that the vast majority of buyers would likely not have stepped in to buy, to overbid, to take out massive mortgages, to buy second properties, if they had not believed that RE prices would continue to increase at 10% per annum or more. And that is the very essence of a speculative bubble: buyers paying higher and higher prices that are not related to the actual usefulness of the property, but rather based on the belief that prices will continue to rise. Speculation is as often covert as overt. It comes in various forms. A recent article in the Vancouver Sun, 'Forecast is cool, but neighbourhood is hot', by Tracy Sherlock, Vancouver Sun, 2 Jun 2010, tells a story that, on the surface, appears benign, but actually describes housing price speculation disguised as relatively normal behaviour. Spot the speculation. -vreaa

    http://wp.me/pcq1o-WO

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    Traffuc Says:
    145

    Interesting bit from the book Tokyo Vice by Jake Adelstein:

    The Tokyo Metropolitan Police compiled a list in 2006 of roughly one thousand yakuza front companies in greater Tokyo; about a fifth of them are real estate firms. The most recent list shows further movement into securities, auditing, consulting, and other areas generally associated with the finance world.

    Some police officers in Tokyo use the word “Realtor” as a synonym for yakuza, so strong are the connections.

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    @Vanrod: Its like a bad infomercial. I bet Gordo arranged it at Bidelberg.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Greenhorn: Thanks for the vid, greenhorn.

    A request for Greenhorn or anyone: Can someone find the video with the 'i buy three my husba buy three' quote? I think it was the day that the W went on presale. I tried to look for it on RET, but couldn't find it. Can any of you find it on youtube, vci, or ret?

    It's one of our favourite quotes around here; it would be great to give it linkage love.

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    @patriotz: re China/Vancouver RE: Actually, there was a Chinese precedent – The Chinese stock market had peaked in late 2007.

    For discussion:
    http://wp.me/pcq1o-Ds

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    blueskies Says:
    149

    VHB

    the quote was for peter walls' Yaletown Park project

    it was filmed at their site on Granville and Georgia

    maybe some time in early '03…..

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    If you seriously believe that there is no impact from the influx of asians on real estate, you are out to lunch! The city went from predomenantly white to majority asian in 20 years. We are talking over a million asian immigrants. There is going be an impact on real estate. But yeah, yeah, lets not point that out.

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    Happy Renting Says:
    151

    @Anonymouse: There are 2.3 million of us here in Metro Vancouver.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    No Longer Looking Says:
    152

    http://www.theprovince.com/business/Eleven+Olympi

    Another article on the OV 11. Includes general comments about the risks of buying presales.

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    Krazy Kanuk Says:
    153

    @patriotz:

    What economic parameter was different from April 2008 that would explain why prices would rise? Which buyers would be affected by it?

    Is it really that difficult? Use your heads.

    ————————————————————-

    Well back in the old days, Vancouver was just great. Now it's the GREATEST PLACE ON EARTH! And not just that! After the Olympics THE WHOLE WORLD KNOWS IT! EVERYONE WANTS TO MOVE HERE! Too bad for them we've completely 100% run out of land. That's right, from here on in, no more construction…..no sireee!

    /end sarcasm.

    I know, I think that's the most frustrating thing. The endless excuses trotted out. These same excuses were tried in the US. Didn't save them, and won't save us.

    KK

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @blueskies: thanks blueskies, but I am 100% sure it wasn't in 2003. It was during–or maybe slightly after–my blogging days, which were 2005-2007.

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    Happy Renting Says:
    155

    @Phil, these days there are around 12,000 immigrants from China per year. There were more 15 years ago, with the influx of Hong Kong immigrants. In any case, somewhere around a 1/4 million in total over 20 years. That is just over 10% of the current population of 2.3 million.

    Remember that most of those are now Canadian, either citizens or permanent residents.

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    Globello Says:
    156

    When our bubble makes the News on Bloomberg, you know it's time to insert the earplugs.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Happy Renting,

    I would love to see your stats that say that only 250,000 people in the GVR are Asian. And yes, i understand that they are Canadian, thats what happens when you immigrate somewhere. Keep sugar coating. The simple fact is that we flooded the GVR with rich asians, and yes it had and continues to have an impact on real estate prices.

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    anonymous456 Says:
    158

    How come our beloved Cameron Muir says that he expects 40,000 Asians (Chinese I guess) are coming to BC in the next year (from that Business Week article)? Something about this stat bothers me. Can anyone verify or dispute this? He also seems to be implying that the RE market will stay up, due to the immigration, which means that all Chinese coming are filthy rich. But in my experience, from Chinese immigrants I've met in the past few years, not all of them are wealthy. They come here, get educated, get jobs and mortgages. Why is the media allowed to throw around these stories when they are probably not true?

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    Dan in Calgary Says:
    159

    @Krazy Kanuck, "Well back in the old days, Vancouver was just great."

    How about a show of hands for those who remember just how good Vancouver used to be, say pre-Expo86 which imho was the beginning of the downfall.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    acefupn Says:
    160

    @VHB: The famous quote is at 1:51 of this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YL-JJGsg4Z0

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    Anonymouse Says:
    161

    @Anonymous:

    @Anonymouse: so by your argument these rich Chinese buyers are creating scarcity by buying

    I’m not saying that “Chinese” buyers are the primary reason for high prices. I believe, like many, that these prices are primarily about credit availability/interest rates/speculation.

    What I’m saying is that the presence of ANY buyer in the market changes the dynamic of the market and affects the demand side of the supply/demand equation. This includes Chinese buyers buying $2M houses. This also includes local male nurses buying at $400k. I’m not scapegoating anyone in particular. Chinese buyers are a small part of the equation but they are still part of the equation and to simply say they have no impact on prices because they are buying $2M homes only in certain areas is just not true, IMO.

    Personally, I question the whole “Chinese buyer” categorization. Are these buyers actually mainland Chinese citizens or are they Chinese Canadians? Its hard to tell in this city because even a lot of locals don’t speak English.

    @Happy Renting:

    There are 2.3 million of us here in Metro Vancouver.

    Yes, but I believe the stat re: the average SFH being $1M was for Vancouver proper, not the entire metro area, which is why I only referred to the Vancouver proper population.

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    jewel Says:
    162

    RCMP new strategy is to intimidate the media and any who speak against them. Assholes….not like they can admit they're ever wrong eh? Isn't this the definition of sociopathic behaviour…not knowing the differance between right and wrong? Killers thugs and psychos….should we be giving these cowards the heave ho instead of letting them try to mis direct the truth. I mean really….they use tax dollars to field this type of propaganda to tell us 'they're watching those who report against their activities.

    http://communities.canada.com/VANCOUVERSUN/blogs/

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    Bubble Lad Says:
    163

    I think realtards might want to bypass the now over-hyped "Chinese buyer" (it's probably already tapped) and get in on the ground floor of the next wave of magical house buyers:

    Sasquatch.

    Yes, Sasquatch (I'm not sure what the plural form is) are obviously going to save the Vancouver re market from having its cherry popped.

    They've been quiet until now, but no doubt they've been saving their money quietly in the mountains around the GVR and Fraser Valley just waiting for the chance to jump in and become glorious homeowners in the "Best Place on Earth". And I have it on good authority that they've a powerful hankering for hardwood floors and sub-zero fridges.

    Don't be put off by their powerfully offensive smell and their penchant for communicating by ear-splitting, guttural screams. Their money is still good (and I hear they've got PLENTY of it).

    Rennie might want to begin a new marketing campaign specifically targeted to our enormous, smelly, hairy friends.

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    Boombust Says:
    164

    "How come our beloved Cameron Muir says that he expects 40,000 Asians (Chinese I guess) are coming to BC in the next year (from that Business Week article)?"

    Does anyone really care what he thinks/says/does?

    He's just another hack like David Lereah.

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    Anonymous Says:
    165

    @anonymous456:

    "How come our beloved Cameron Muir says that he expects 40,000 Asians (Chinese I guess) are coming to BC in the next year (from that Business Week article)? Something about this stat bothers me. Can anyone verify or dispute this?"

    Have you tried checking the historical figures? I imagine 40,000 is about the same as 2009.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @acefupn: We should archive this for posterity.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Happy Renting Says:
    167

    PDF of statistics on the number of immigrants to Metro Vancouver (Immigrant Landings 1997-2008) showing around 10,000 Mainland China immigrants per year.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @acefupn: THAT IS GOLD!! Thank you!!!! Gold medal for ACEFUPN!!!!!!!!!!!! thank you thank you thank you!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Boombust Says:
    169

    "Does anyone really care what he thinks/says/does?

    He’s just another hack like David Lereah."

    And, I might add, that goes double for Chipman.

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    anonymous456 Says:
    170

    @Anonymouse:

    "Personally, I question the whole “Chinese buyer” categorization. Are these buyers actually mainland Chinese citizens or are they Chinese Canadians? Its hard to tell in this city because even a lot of locals don’t speak English."

    EXACTLY!!!! My friend's parents have been here for 35 years and barely speak English. I'm sure when they go to open houses (for fun on weekends) the realtors are drooling, thinking they're straight from China. Little do they know they don't have suitcases of yuan in the closet at home.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    171

    @Anonymouse:

    Personally, I question the whole “Chinese buyer” categorization. Are these buyers actually mainland Chinese citizens or are they Chinese Canadians?

    The "categorization", as promoted by the media and the RE industry, is deliberately ambiguous. You are supposed to think that everyone who looks a certain way has a direct pipeline to the People's Bank of China. Thus given the fact that a very large fraction of the metro population is visibly Asian, you're supposed to believe that house prices can continue at their present absurd levels indefinitely, and you'd better just give up and buy.

    As I and others have noted, this crap has been going on for 30 years. The only variation is that 30 years ago they were all supposed to be HK tycoons.

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    Greenhorn Says:
    172

    @VHB

    Here is video you wanted:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOSzuKbIl9k

    That other Youtube user took the video from my link.

    I buy 3 my husband buy 3!!!

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    Greenhorn Says:
    173

    VHB,

    Please link to my Youtube account! Thanks.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOSzuKbIl9k

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    174

    @Anonymous:

    Have you tried checking the historical figures? I imagine 40,000 is about the same as 2009.

    In 2009, BC received 9,375 immigrants from China (including HK and Macau) and 1,632 from Taiwan for a metropolitan China total of just over 11,000, less than half of whom were investor class.

    Total immigration to BC from the whole world was 41,434. That's 1% of the BC population which is not high by historical standards. Total immigration to all of Canada was about 240,000.

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/migration.a

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    laneway Says:
    175

    Our favourite laneway house is still for rent. Quick quick better get it fast, they've already raised the rent, it's now $1650 instead of $1550! No takers, just raise the rent, works every time!

    http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1812178

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    176

    @Bubble Lad:

    Plural of Sasquatch is Sasqueetch, and Rennie has already targeted them to come to 2300 Kingsway.

    2300 Kingsway, A VANCOUVER LANDMARK

    2300 Kingsway, WHEN YOU SAY LOCATION, IT'S VANCOUVER.

    WE HAVE ALWAYS UNDERSTOOD THIS AND NOW

    THE WORLD UNDERSTANDS IT TOO.

    2300 Kingsway, Feel the value.

    2300 Kingsway, A PLACE WHERE SASQUEETCH CALL HOME.

    Yes, it's 2300 Kingsway.

    http://www.2300kingsway.com/

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    Keepin an Eye on The Says:
    177

    The pimps are simply fascinating.

    RE pimp extraordinaire Rennie says he’s not worried about the 11 Olympic Village condo buyers who want out.

    He says, and with a straight face, that there will always be people whose personal circumstances have changed and will back out of a deal.

    Good answer asshole.

    But are they wanting out because of their personal circumstances, or have they caught on they are in the Titanic that is about to sink?

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    Best place on meth Says:
    178

    @patriotz:

    Those stats tell us that 8975 immigrants came to metro Vancouver from mainland China last year.

    Many of those are probably family sponsorships so they don't need to find housing. Even if none of them were sponsorships it would still only imply about 2000 – 2500 families coming from China.

    Even if ALL of them bought real estate upon arrival that's about 3-4 weeks of total sales.

    Big whoop.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    179

    @laneway:

    Nobody wants to pay $1650 for that tiny piece of laneway crap?

    Looks like Vancouver has plenty of stupid buyers but not even one stupid renter.

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    Disbelief Says:
    180

    I think we should re qoute the asian lady. "I buy a shree an ma husba buy shree". If I am not mistaken she sounds Japanese. So much for the rich Chinese buying into all the speculative hype. Don't tell Rennie and all the other realtors next all the rich Japanese will soak up all the inventory and up up up.

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    specuskeptic specuskeptic Says:
    181

    Because I love you all so much (except maybe rupaul), here's the vid clip down to its essence.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKevSXL_104

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    Anonymous Says:
    182

    @Anonymouse: I think the concept that what anyone else, Chinese, Albertan, Iranian, local or whatever, is willing to pay should affect the inherent value of a property is absurd. Yes comparable sales will be used by many to determine a fair price but I strongly disagree these previous sales are fundamentally causing someone else to pay the same price. They pay these prices because they believe what someone else pays justifies its value. That is very different from rich buyers somehow crowding out everyone else on limited supply, which is not the case at all.

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    paulb. Says:
    183

    @Disbelief:

    I lol'd

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    184

    @Disbelief:

    She does sound Japanese, and looks Japanese.

    Rennie may not be able to tell the difference though, he just sees a bag of cash where the person is standing.

    Reminds me of King of the Hill:

    Hank: So are you Chinese or Japanese?

    Khan: I live in California last 20 year…but first come from Laos.

    Hank: Huh?

    Khan: Laos, we Laotian…

    Bill: The ocean? What ocean?

    Khan: We are LAOTIAN! From Laos, stupid! It’s a landlocked country in southeast Asia. It’s between Vietnam and Thailand, okay? Population 4.7 million.

    [Hank, Dale, Boomhower, and Bill sitting around the picnic table take a long befuddled stare at Khan...]

    Hank: So are you Chinese or Japanese?

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    185

    @Best place on meth: Yup, she's Japanese. Isn't that ironic and oh-so appropriate?!? The poster-woman (as it were) of the real estate speculative craze is not Chinese after all, just like the real driving force behind this bubble is not the Chinese.

    Oh, and Patriotz and others, how dare you spoil chip's mythologized fantasies about Lower Mainland demographic patterns but bringing in those messy things known as facts.

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    elvince Says:
    186

    ROFL ROFL!!! I thought that whole "I by treee husbah gonna by threeee" was just a funny thing to laugh at kite. Someone actually said that on national tv!

    Funny!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Ahem, you do not have to be a resident or citizen to buy property in Vancouver so those immigration figures are completely irrelevant to the anecdotes in the BusinessWeek story. That was kind of my point with regards to Australia's restrictions on foreign buying.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    She sounds Canadian to me. She was probably born in Japan but judging by the strength of the accent, she's been living in Canada for a long time, probably the majority of her life.

    Did you know the vast majority of speculators in BC are Canadian?

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    kabloona Says:
    189

    Greenhorn, thanks for that great Tony Parsons clip….reeally takes me back to meltdown central!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Patriotz and others frequently argue that Vancouver's soaring prices are due to cheap money and speculative psychology. And it's true, but it never addresses why Vancouver is the most expensive city in North America. Every city on the continent is subject to the these forces, yet Vancouver, a city with relatively little legal economic activity and so-so wages, is cranking out million dollar crackshacks.

    So you have to ask yourself what is different about Vancouver. The first obvious point is that criminal activity underpins the city's economy more so than almost every city in the Western world. The drug industry alone is the province's second-biggest.

    Another difference is that Vancouver is the recipient of intense buying interest from mainland China for various reasons, including no restrictions on foreign ownership, little police enforcement of illicit money flows and the background consideration that Canada has a very lax immigration policy that sees even the world's most notorious criminals find sanctuary here.

    That we don't have hard and fast numbers on the inflow of money from China and the impact of criminal proceeds on property is not an argument that they have no impact on the real estate market.

    But there is an impact, and we can at least speculate that this impact might be significant barring any other reasonable arguments, preferably without reflexive cries of racist from people who have drank a little too deeply from the cup of political correctness.

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    ReadyToPop Says:
    191

    @chip

    Vancouver is not the most expensive city in North America. That doesn't mean that it isn't due for a correction however…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    192

    @chip:

    Excuse me, but where were your drug lords and Chinese millionaires in the summer of 2008?

    It was dead in real estate land, sales were in the crapper and prices were plummeting.

    And this was months before the financial crisis.

    So what happened?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Vancouver is not the most expensive city in North America. Vancouver is the most unaffordable, but at their peak there were cities in the US that were just as bad.

    But there is an impact, and we can at least speculate that this impact might be significant barring any other reasonable arguments

    What are you saying here? We can speculate that it might be significant. So conversely can we speculate that it is insignificant? Speculate all you want, but it's a waste of time.

    There were housing bubbles across our entire country, continent and many parts of the rest of the world. Why do you need to look for a boogeyman to explain the one in Vancouver?

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    Newcomer Says:
    194

    @Disbelief:

    No, she does not sound Japanese. And what she says is "I buy three and my husband gonna buy three," which actually sounds rather Canadian, not Main Land.

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    Newcomer Says:
    195

    @Best place on meth:

    なんで日本人だともうか。

    You guys are just saying things, with not reason whatsoever to make that kind of call. There is nothing even the slightest bit Japanese about her accent, and no Japanese person would engage in this sort of activity, much less boast about it. I have to wonder if you have ever met a Japanese person.

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    elvince Says:
    196

    Who cares if she's chinese, japanese, canadian, or a freaking martian??? She's bying tree and husbah gonna by tree!!! This is funny enough to be worth a big laugh no matter her nationality, citizenship, accent, skin color or planet of origin. That's just plain funny. Period.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    197

    @Newcomer:

    No Japanese person would engage in what activity – real estate speculation?

    Holy crap – did you really just say that?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price

    And damn right they boasted about how much money they were making, until the market went south and they were wiped out.

    Anyway, if it makes you feel better I'll call her Laotian.

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    ulsterman Says:
    198

    My girlfriend and I went for a walk through the OV today to see what it's all about. First impressions? A sterile ghost town. As i wandered into the presentation centre a well-to-do looking Asian group walked out. But then again, there were a couple of Caucasian couples in there too, so couldn't draw conclusions on the rich asian theory.

    The sales guy immediately came over and gave us the pitch. Very nice guy and said there was something for everybody here…. The prices ranged from 400k to 10m. I had to suppress a smile when he used the phrase Sub Zero. When he was in full upsell mode, he also used the phrase "…and these features are considered a plus-plus by many buyers." I imagine plus-plus is a good thing in real estate "investing".

    We wandered around to the display suite and there were three couples there – from the gist of the converstaions they appeared to be serious buyers vs a looky loo like me. The suite was a 2 bed and flex, 1100 sqft, and yours for the bargain price of $1,080,000. Of course it looked nice, but for a cool million? Even if i had millions to spend i would never pay this much to live in this sterile, depressing landscape.

    BTW, with 100k down at a fixed rate of 4.5% ammortized over 25 years the payments would be around $5,120 +$400(?)tax + $250(?) strata. These are really insane numbers.

    Today i felt very good about renting.

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    specuskeptic specuskeptic Says:
    199

    『なんで日本人だとおもうか.』

    She says "suree" for three.  スリー

    I'm not 100% convinced that she's of any particular asian background for her so take it for what it's worth. She also says "gonna" which is a native speaker habit so she's probably been here (or the US) for some time.

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    specuskeptic specuskeptic Says:
    200

    Never mind. Doesn't say "hsubando" so prob not Japanese. Doesn't matter. She's a speculator. (Speculatorian?)

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    Whitebear Says:
    201

    @Chip

    You pointed out a good point regarding foreign influence on Van's housing market. (your 2nd point)

    http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/Finance/20100627/New
    The link above commented on 231 apartment units being sold out in 3.5hrs.

    It just seems like there is nothing that can put a dent in Hong Kong's real estate market. The government enacted a bunch of executive restrictions since April, cooling off sales activities for a while. It didn't last long, I guess as greed just couldn't be defeated that easily. Mind you, Hong Kong withstood a long bear market in the real estate market from 1997, which reached CAD$1600/sqf, till 2003, when avg housing fell to CAD$600/sqf. Now, it's back to CAD$1400/sqf.

    Well, if your comment about foreign influence on Van real estate bears any truth, we are looking at years of permabears being on the chopping board before senses come back to the market.

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    Newcomer Says:
    202

    @specuskeptic:

    "Speculatorian"

    Love it!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Newcomer Says:
    203

    @Best place on meth:

    It's not that the Japanese didn't speculate, but they did not do it in that way. The were not crass about their purchases. A family who could afford six properties would not line up at an open house. The would not split the purchases between husband and wife. They would not mug for the TV etc. They just have very different customs and cultural sensibilities. And nowadays you would be very hard pressed to find Japanese nationals who are interested in speculating in real estate. I think that you can understand why that is.

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    Dan in Calgary Says:
    204

    @Best place on meth, regarding "Excuse me, but where were your drug lords and Chinese millionaires in the summer of 2008? It was dead in real estate land, sales were in the crapper and prices were plummeting. And this was months before the financial crisis. So what happened?"

    The Beijing Olympics were in August 2008. They were busy trying to make money in Olympics-related ventures? Or they were too busy attending the festivities to bother with Vancouver?

    Somehow this would seem to confirm the hypothesis that when Chinese millionaires lose interest, the market tanks; when they're interested, the market rises? I shudder to think it might actually work that way.

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    Newcomer Says:
    205

    @Dan in Calgary:

    Why aren't those Chinese investors currently too busy attending the Shanghai Expo, then?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Bubble Lad Says:
    206

    @Best place on meth: Feel the value – LOL!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Bubble Lad Says:
    207

    @ulsterman:

    What's the phrase in George Orwell's "1984" – "double plus good", or (as the salesperson put it) "and these features are considered a plus-plus"

    too weird.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Bubble Lad Says:
    208

    sorry: doubleplusgood (from the doublespeak dictionary)

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    sensibleone Says:
    209

    I got a theory, the 'Black' shenanigans in TO are all 'agents provocateurs' of the RCMP. They are deliberatley causing the destruction and mayhem to ramp up the public sense of fear so that the downside drift on their other activities is mitigated. I noticed that the media coverage cut away whenever there was a police charge, there was never any footage of the cops outrages against what looked like kids and riot tourists. The cops never moved in on the 'Blacks' whenever there was storebashing or namecalling. The action was all designed to draw in the crowd and the cameras. Fucking cops are trying to set up an excuse to lobby for more guns and draconian laws to restrict the peoples freedoms. The media should be ashamed of itself for acting like the stooge again.

    The PC goofs on this site who insist that immigration is 250K per year are complete idiots. The 250K number only refers to the head of the family. He or she brings in dozens of dependants along with them. I know of one case where a retired engineer from China, in his early seventies, applied through his church and got in with a bogus degree from a bum fuck college in Beijing, no good anywhere in the world except there.

    He has no intention of working here..so no taxes. Yet he has brought in his wife, his four sons and their families including six children ( two with severe Downs Syndrome) and two sets of grandparents. Only the old man speaks any English. The kids get free schooling. His father has had cancer before to Canada and was put in a care home withing weeks of arriving. Its costing hundreds of thousands just for this one individual. The rest get free health care ( and he's always taking the old folks to the doctor). Free English lessons and resettlement allownaces, job training etc..all on the Canadian taxpayers dime. Remember, none of these people have ever paid a dime into the system here. Thats 20 people collecting benefits they've never paid for. Ain't we a grand country. Now this is just one story,multiply this by 250 thousand and the real immigration number is much much higher than the PC lumps are alluding to.

    Any wonder why the country's health care and service sector can't function on the 8% of the budget that the union parasites haven't sucked out?

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    Devore Says:
    210

    @Newcomer: It's obviously the drug dealers, whose business is inexplicably picking up to compensate. They're such savvy investors, keeping Rich Dad, Poor Dad on their nightstands, right next to the 9mm Glock.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    211

    @chip:

    So you have to ask yourself what is different about Vancouver.

    As others have pointed out, metros in the US and elsewhere saw price/rent and price/income just as high at peak, and at higher interest rates. So there doesn't have to be any exotic flow of funds to explain the high prices seen today in Vancouver. Just the same old source – debt.

    The real question is why people in Vancouver have been so slow to get the message from the global RE bust – and its own mini-bust in 2008 – and are still paying such ridiculous prices.

    The answer is that Vancouverites are the most gullible, self-important, and self-entitled bunch of fools on the planet. Or as Robert Shiller put it succinctly in 2005:

    "Vancouver is the bubbliest city in the world".

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    Dan in Calgary Says:
    212

    @Newcomer, regarding "Why aren’t those Chinese investors currently too busy attending the Shanghai Expo, then?"

    I dunno. Maybe it's not such a big deal for them. Or maybe there's no (perceived) opportunity to make money in related venues.

    But then again, maybe they are too busy attending the Shanghai Expo. After all, isn't the Vancouver real estate market tanking again?

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    Best place on meth Says:
    213

    Some nice numbers from the past week from Agent Will, particularly for detached.

    MOI for houses at 7.65 and selling price at less than 95% of asking.

    http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/

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    This time it's Says:
    214

    No arguement at all with patriotz's take on our real estate, and I can't really add any more logic to an unavoidable correction.

    I know we've heard it all before and it may sound lame, but with all those price reductions, low sales, and the media fianally on side, I have an overwheming gut feeling that there are no more miracles left to save our market….it's our turn, and the descent from the summit could be shocking.

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    junius Says:
    215

    my wife left me (for my brother!) due to my views on Vancouver RE and gold.

    Now – comeuppance!

    About time.

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    @patriotz: "The real question is why people in Vancouver have been so slow to get the message from the global RE bust – and its own mini-bust in 2008 – and are still paying such ridiculous prices."

    Agree completely. This willful self-deception is remarkable; a testimony to the power of bubble dynamics.

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    granite countertop Says:
    217

    @patriotz: I found it interesting hearing about the Bank of Vancouver $5 note auction, especially the part about how "they were badly hit by the collapse of the real estate speculation" in 1912-1914. It would seem real estate bubbles have been the local sport for over a century.

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    joeblow Says:
    218

    Yup, that gut feeling that the end is nigh is turning into a rush as we're running out of excuses, and the descent from the summit will definitely be more dramatic than it was on the way up.

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    sensibleone Says:
    219

    Don Newman of CBC reported today that world leaders have been complaining that the security in TO has been 'heavy handed', 'thuggish', 'unrealistic response'..overall complaining of Canada's descent into a police state. I say 'what descent'? We can see that the police have been planning this show of force since well before any of this happened. Wellcome to NAZI CANADA the Fascist leadership wannabe of a new world order where you either pay your taxes and shut up or you get bullets and gas.

    If you get a guy from the CBC reporting this, you know its bad.

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    Eponymous Says:
    220

    @sensibleone: Yeah! Whatever happened to the good ol' days when anarchists could torch a police car in peace without big bad bullies like the Toronto mayor saying people that do such a thing will be dealt with as criminals?

    Sheesh. Nice handle, too bad it doesn't help you get a grasp on reality. Crawl back under your bridge troll.

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    sensibleone Says:
    221

    Even the dimwits on the CBC have speculated that the police cars were left suspiciously in areas where the police had already cordoned off the protestors. It is seeming more likely that the police torched their own vehicles as an excuse to attack the crowds.

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    sensibleone Says:
    222

    BTW it is now being reported that the police are running scared from the negative publicity and have begun to arrest and confiscate, reporters, cameras, equipment and producers are being cuffed and taken away to unknown destinations. These are CTV CBC and international press representatives. They RCMP are planning murder and don't want another 'Djikanski case' on their hands. Welcome to the KGB vision of a fascist Canada.

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    Anonymous Says:
    223

    :roll:

    Meanwhile, back to real estate: Any bets on what the next presale to hit the news with buyers trying to get out of their contract is? I'm sure this will happen with the killer river green development, but that will be a while.

    There's a development near 12th and Kingsway that was pretty expensive for the neighborhood, not sure how their presales went, but wouldn't be suprised to see buyers start to panic and try to get out of their contract if the market keeps going in this downward direction. What else is nearing completion?

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    Anonymous Says:
    224

    @granite countertop:

    Seems that if you look at the history of Vancouver it is all about speculative land deals. There also seems to be a current of racism running parallel to this. I'm not saying it's unique to the place but it's a bit hard to ignore when you look back.

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    @patriotz: And in about 2 years from now half of them will be whining and crying to the media looking for a bail/handout "waaa.. we never saw this coming… waaaa… why did'nt anyone warn us? waaa… how could the government and the banks let us do this to ourselves… waaa.. everyone else was doing it!…" The people that I know that have bought in the last 2-3 years are oddly enough the dumbest people I have ever met. Most of them are crying already because they don't have any money after barely making their emergency low interest rate mortgage payment. It's all I can do to not give them a good hard kick in the nuts.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    226

    "…..a city so expensive that the average white-collar professional can't afford to buy a home."

    Hey that sounds like my city!

    BEHOLD THE ANT PEOPLE OF CHINA!

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100627/ap_on_re_as/a

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    coastal Says:
    227

    @jim: I know a couple who were forced into buying a couple of years back cause "daddy knew best" and he co-signed and coughed up the downpayment as they work low level jobs. The suite in the basement idea never worked out cause they kept getting assholes for renters and they had to put their kids in an illegal daycare to save money.

    At the least they advise their friends to not buy, but they can't sell cause daddy will lose his cash and they're stuck paying most of their income to the mortgage. I can imagine how many other young couples are locked into this same scenario.

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    realpaul Says:
    228

    #226 BPOM , but look at those rent/income ratio's, far lower than Vancouver. We have plenty of examples of 250 sq ft condos ( Electra ex) and cockroach and bedbug infested units here ( highest infestation in N.AM) as well. In fact aren't residents here paying 70% for shelter.

    And I can tell you….it isn't just the Chinese girls whp don't shower more than once a week or so. I have been in elevators and restaurants here where well dressed young women have literally smelled like like they hadn't washed for a month.

    And….. I did hear also that the Secretary General has decried Canadas police arresting and beating of journalists. Some have been detained for days and their news orgs haven't heard from them. So maybe we shouldn't look down on whats happening in China when we have a brutal police state and shitty RE conditions right here under our own blanket of denial. Isn't the Toronto police attack akin to Tienanmen Square on similarily peaceful crowds who demand that these power crazed killers be shut down? These stories are in every newspaper around the world. Hey…if you let police investigate themselves and they think they are above the law and then the top cops staff the recruits with psycho's like Millington, the Indian drunk guy and the two other stooges than pretty soon you get Nazi' brownshirts and KGB goons killing people. We all need to think hard about disbanding the RCMP and getting civilian oversight of all police activity. Its either that or we see more of the shameful un Canadian behaviour we've witnessed in TO.

    Canada stood by while innocents were brutized in Bangkok recently. Is brutality the new face of Canada? Is this the new normal?

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    Supraboy Says:
    229

    Ok, after spending 4 months in Hong Kong, now that i've had a chance to drive around Vancouver today, I have a different opinion.

    I saw loads of "For Lease" signs out there on commercial buildings. What the hell happened after the olympics? I leave for 4 months and this place turns from a bullrun on real estate to a setup for a plunge.

    I also drove by the Olympic Village, that place looks sad especially with a big paved lot there instead of a park. I saw the initial development plans 3-4 yrs ago and it does not feel anything like what it is meant to me. What kind of joke is this. The worst part is seeing a lot of businesses go under.

    Bear or bull, it doesn't matter.

    The fact is Scullboy's not around and he'll never be back, I guess that's all that matters. :)

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    domus Says:
    230

    Some interesting stats about the US housing market as of today, and the general supply situation:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/housing

    Clearly an oversupply to last a few years. Notice that this are national figures, but even the most sought after locations in California and the East Coast are experiencing over-supply and ever decreasing valuations. Notice also that borrowing costs are close to an all-time low.

    Interesting times ahead for us, i bet.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    231

    @realpaul:

    In fact aren’t residents here paying 70% for shelter.

    Well no.

    And if you know anything about China, people in market rentals (i.e. not the old state-owned ones) pay WAY more of their income on rent for much less space than people here. HK too.

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    sluggo Says:
    232

    Wazzup with the RE bull blogs?????

    2 posts on Chipman today.

    A few more on the Johnny Horton blog, but most of them are from some zombie pumping dick meds.

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    Boombust Says:
    233

    "2 posts on Chipman today"

    Oh. Him. I'm surprised anyone still bothers.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymouse Says:
    234

    @patriotz:

    Vancouverites are the most gullible, self-important, and self-entitled bunch of fools on the planet.

    So you admit "its different here"? Ha ha.

    You forgot to mention the total herd mentality here. This is a city full of sheeple, completely incapable of independent thought. On a street with three lanes everyone drives down the middle lane (heaven forbid you should have to merge, this requires paying attention). People go grocery shopping in packs of 10. People will see a lineup and automatically queue up, sometimes for nothing (olympic pavillions with nothing in them), sometimes for overpriced crap (condos, bad pasta), half the time not even caring about what they've lined up for. But everyone else is doing it so they should too!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    sluggo Says:
    235

    Boombust,

    Both of those posts were from bears.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    236

    @sluggo: No press for the slime please

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    crashcow Says:
    237

    "Based on evidence that has always and only been observed during or immediately prior to U.S. recessions, the U.S. economy appears headed into a second leg of an unusually challenging downturn."

    http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100628.htm

    …This should help accelerate our housing bust like in '08.

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    Patrick_saint Says:
    238

    Eponymous

    YOU ARE AN IDIOT. If you still think the cops and security forces used today in Canada have the peoples interest at heart you are an idiot.

    They don't work for you and I, they work for Shell and Royal Bank and Pfiser and anyone else with tons of money like Revenue Canada.

    Please….

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    buff_butler Says:
    239

    @Patrick_saint: No one cares. This is a real estate blog.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Patrick_saint Says:
    240

    It's a blog that discusses real estate and occasionally daily news events which may or may not be directed related to real estate. If you have something interesting to say I will read it otherwise fuck off!!!!

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    @Coastal

    Did these people buy in Vancouver? How would they lose money selling today if they bought a couple years ago?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Newcomer Says:
    242

    They are really pulling out all the media stops:

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Wealthy+Chin

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

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